The Country 02/12/24: Phil Duncan talks to Jamie Mackay

Monday's resident weather expert says "Sprummer" - a mix of spring and summer for December - is here. But what about his long-term summer forecast following on from his mates at NIWA?

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Right, I've tracked them down. Phil Duncan short on time, Phil,
I won't worry about this week because it's going to
be warm and we'll all welcome that. I'm more worried
about the longer term piction. They were said, it's going
to be drier in many regions, but some rainfall coming
for the dry parts of the east coast of the
North Island early in the new year. February March. What
do you reckon?

Speaker 2 (00:22):
Yeah, well, firstly, I'm not a huge fan of long
range forecast that go beyond a couple of months. It's
guesswork and notoriously terrible. But what we are seeing in
January or December January is sort of the Lamina conditions
and the tropics are at their peak, and so that's
the best chance we've got of getting some rain makers
dropping southwards towards us. But at the moment, the southern

(00:43):
Ocean is very stormy, plenty more windy westerly than spring
light weather on the way, so we've got a combination
of summer heat in the north and cold or wetter
weather in the south, especially the west coast. So those
eastern areas at this stage I don't see rain really
on the way for the North Island in any substantial
way for the next couple of weeks. But we do

(01:03):
have a storm this Sunday over to South Island that
might send rain further up into the North. And then
a couple of weeks from now middle of December, all
eyes around the tropics could be some low pressure up
there while high pressure drops south of southeast. So there's
a lot of variety to spring weather pattern with summer
heat for many parts of the country.

Speaker 1 (01:24):
Okay, fell, excellent summation in a very short time. Thanks mate,
We'll catch you next week.

Speaker 2 (01:29):
Cheers buddy, there we go.

Speaker 1 (01:30):
Phel Duncan