October 2, 2025 • 8 mins
The senior analyst for animal protein at RaboResearch comments on a couple of dairy-beef reports coming up next week. One will focus on the New Zealand market and the other on global trends.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Two reports on dairy beef are being released to clients
next week from the team at Rabobank, one focused on
New Zealand and one with the Global Lends, co authored
by Gen Corkran and Emma Higgins and Jen joins us
now afternoon.
Speaker 2 (00:17):
Gen, Hi, how A, Haymosh.
Speaker 1 (00:20):
I'm great, thank you, thank you for joining us. What
do we mean by a dairy beef in the New
Zealand context?
Speaker 2 (00:27):
Yeah, thanks, Samush. So we have got two reports coming
out and they're both focusing on dairy beef. So it's
a great point to define what this actually means, right
because ultimately almost all dairy kettle end up in the
beef supply chain once they've done their service to the
New Zealand industry. Right, So, dairy beef in this context,
and what we're talking about here is basically dairy calves
(00:48):
born to dairy cows on dairy farms. But these are
the carves that are then reared for beef production. So
typically they are simpless carves that aren't required as here
for replacements, so they might some of them might be
side by dairy balls, some of them might be sided
by beef balls. And we've got about four million calves
born annually to dairy calves. Around a third of those,
(01:11):
or about twenty eight percent of those kept is here
for replacements. So technically there's a seventy percent kind of
surplus of calves. And what this report is focusing on
in the New Zealand context is what is the opportunity
to make use of more of these calves and our
beef production systems. And we all know, you know what
beef prices have been looking like recently, so there is
(01:33):
an opportunity here to perhaps do a little bit more
with some of these calves that currently aren't being read
for beef production.
Speaker 1 (01:39):
So we had a great chat yesterday with our Australia
corresponder Chris Russell, and you know the Aussie beef outlookers
is just pumping and it's got longevity about it. So
why does this New Zealand report? Do you describe this
as a strategic moment for dairy beef in New Zealand. Yeah,
it's a real green light opportunity, isn't it? It really is.
Speaker 2 (01:59):
And I think challenge with beef production systems right is
that they are a longer game in terms of that
space between a calf being born a minute, being ready
to enter in terms of like meat production, the beef
supply chain. So there's a real opportunity here because you know,
we've got a bit of legs in the global beef
outlook for the next few years. Strong pricing just based
(02:23):
on kind of a global shortage of red meat. So
this year alone, you know, we are sitting in a
fallout of two years ago. We are not many dairy
beef calves. We're weird, so normally we are already wearing
about a quarter of the calves born sadary calves and
producing their menstereybics. So that's just about over a million hit,
just over a million hit of those four million calves. Great,
(02:43):
we could do more, and you see boom and bust
kind of cycles with calf We're in this year one
hundred and forty five thousand odd extra calves compared to
last year being red. About three years ago it was
the opposite, so we had not all those calves extra
cars being read and we're seeing the fallout of that now, right,
So global beef supplies down, especially in the United States
(03:04):
in some of the Northern Hemisphere countries and those countries
like Australia that are pumping out beef at the moment,
are really being able to capitalize on those high prices, right,
And we've got a lot of supply in New Zealand,
so that's sort of adding a little bit of upside
to our prices as well. But actually that every dietball
value is high and that's not related to our supply
here in New Zealand. So it's a great opportunity to
(03:26):
you know, perhaps a few of these extra calves. We're
not saying it's going to be easy or that we
can rear hunt see of the calves, because that's you know,
unlikely however, you know, and the report talks about this,
but if we rear if we have a kind of
meaty goal of extra say six hundred thousand calves at
today's current market prices, that's you know, that's unlocking about
(03:47):
another one point two billion conservatively, you know, and the
rythmtics book check. So it's an interesting proposition.
Speaker 1 (03:55):
I think, yeah, absolutely, okay, So what are the challenges
you talk about? It won't be easy and there's a
bit of time I'm involved, but what are the key
challenges preventing the wider adoption of this's given the good outlook.
Speaker 2 (04:06):
Yeah, that's right, And this isn't a new topic, right,
So dairy beef has been a topic that we've discussed
over the many many years we being New Zealand, and broadly
there's three of challenges, hey mosh, so I can touch
on all of these, but firstly are pastoral farming systems.
Secondly car rearing it's a challenge, and then also kind
(04:27):
of this collaborative approach that we might need between the sectors,
so dairy and beef in perhaps the industry as well.
So number one, our farming systems in New Zealand, we're
really set up here around pasture growth and the pasture
growth curve, which is seasonal and in a dairy sense,
this makes a lot of sense, right because we want
peak past supply lining up with peak milk supply and
(04:48):
the demand that cows deer cows have at that time.
So we all understand, you know that that's the way
our systems are set up. But this makes it really
challenging in a carving sense and different to many oversease
countries that might be carving just all for a year,
equal amounts of cars each month, and that makes it
a little easier for wearing, for labor, for basically for
a farm system. So under seasonal carving in New Zealanders
(05:10):
is mostly in spring. There's also pockets of botum carving now,
which is great, but this creates a short and intense
window where calves are born over six to eight weeks,
a lot of carves, a lot of calves, and how
do we rear all of those calves. We're already going
to read here replacements. The other nuance we've got these
young dairy heifer cows coming through. They need a low
(05:31):
birth weight fire that means you know, easy carving out
in the pastures shortly station link. There's been something that's
been a real focus to really make sure that carving
period is compact and growth rates. You know, all these
calves born to these heifers, all these cows. Hasn't always
been the goal because A we just need he replacements
(05:52):
and b we need to get the calves safely out
of the cow so that they can start producing milk.
The other big elephant in the room if we think
about pastoral systems in New Zealanders, if we want to
rear all the calves, where are we going to put them,
so that's obviously something that we addressing the report and extra,
say just two million calves would have to go somewhere,
so of course we don't want that to be at
(06:13):
the expense of our beef breeding herd or are used.
So this is where it gets really challenging in New Zealand.
So the second big one is calf wearing, and we
focus on this quite a lot in the report in
the New Zealand Report because it's it is a nuanced
it's got so many cars being bought once. Labor is
always a challenge in our primary sector around you know,
people to actually wear these calves, and we've seen the
(06:36):
boom bus cycle over the different years with calves being
read in numbers. Infrastructure around carf wearing is also an
interesting one, isn't it, Because we have these sheds that
are used for this really intense and short period of
time and it makes it difficult to have that capital
infrastructure sitting there empty maybe for other parts of the year.
So we can talk about split carving and other ways
that we can get around this, but it's not necessarily easy.
(06:58):
But overall, and I think the third one is really
just some great coordination and feedback loops across their value
supply chain for dairy beef in New Zealand could really
mean that we have a more consistent pathway for dairy
beef and we could really be sort of jumping into
those tailwinds of the high prices like we are seeing
now out there.
Speaker 1 (07:18):
Yeah, good stuff and the opportunities there. There are some challenges,
but wrapping up Jim, the outlook looking pretty good five
to ten years down on the track. There's some positive
thinking and there's real real green shoots here.
Speaker 2 (07:34):
Yeah, certainly some green shirts and opportunities are always faced
with challenge, right, But this report's really just opening up
the conversation around what are our challenges, why are we
doing And there's a global report as well that sort
of sits in line with us one to compare some
of the other global systems and how they're doing dairy beef.
But how also we are quite different here, so we
need to have a lot of grace with ourselves. But yeah,
(07:56):
great opportunity. The beef pricing is going to be strong
over the next two to three years in New Zealand.
We think, and and certainly beefers a versatile protein. People
know what to do with its popular, healthy, real food.
So yeah, we'll have a stake for Dinism. I think.
Speaker 1 (08:10):
Yeah, amazing what that little bit of water and a
bit of grass and a bit of sunshine can do.
I here go. Fantastic, Jen, thank you very much, much appreciated.
Speaker 2 (08:20):
Thanks much to Talk Tennis.
Two reports on dairy beef are being released to clients
next week from the team at Rabobank, one focused on
New Zealand and one with the Global Lends, co authored
by Gen Corkran and Emma Higgins and Jen joins us
now afternoon.
Speaker 2 (00:17):
Gen, Hi, how A, Haymosh.
Speaker 1 (00:20):
I'm great, thank you, thank you for joining us. What
do we mean by a dairy beef in the New
Zealand context?
Speaker 2 (00:27):
Yeah, thanks, Samush. So we have got two reports coming
out and they're both focusing on dairy beef. So it's
a great point to define what this actually means, right
because ultimately almost all dairy kettle end up in the
beef supply chain once they've done their service to the
New Zealand industry. Right, So, dairy beef in this context,
and what we're talking about here is basically dairy calves
(00:48):
born to dairy cows on dairy farms. But these are
the carves that are then reared for beef production. So
typically they are simpless carves that aren't required as here
for replacements, so they might some of them might be
side by dairy balls, some of them might be sided
by beef balls. And we've got about four million calves
born annually to dairy calves. Around a third of those,
(01:11):
or about twenty eight percent of those kept is here
for replacements. So technically there's a seventy percent kind of
surplus of calves. And what this report is focusing on
in the New Zealand context is what is the opportunity
to make use of more of these calves and our
beef production systems. And we all know, you know what
beef prices have been looking like recently, so there is
(01:33):
an opportunity here to perhaps do a little bit more
with some of these calves that currently aren't being read
for beef production.
Speaker 1 (01:39):
So we had a great chat yesterday with our Australia
corresponder Chris Russell, and you know the Aussie beef outlookers
is just pumping and it's got longevity about it. So
why does this New Zealand report? Do you describe this
as a strategic moment for dairy beef in New Zealand. Yeah,
it's a real green light opportunity, isn't it? It really is.
Speaker 2 (01:59):
And I think challenge with beef production systems right is
that they are a longer game in terms of that
space between a calf being born a minute, being ready
to enter in terms of like meat production, the beef
supply chain. So there's a real opportunity here because you know,
we've got a bit of legs in the global beef
outlook for the next few years. Strong pricing just based
(02:23):
on kind of a global shortage of red meat. So
this year alone, you know, we are sitting in a
fallout of two years ago. We are not many dairy
beef calves. We're weird, so normally we are already wearing
about a quarter of the calves born sadary calves and
producing their menstereybics. So that's just about over a million hit,
just over a million hit of those four million calves. Great,
(02:43):
we could do more, and you see boom and bust
kind of cycles with calf We're in this year one
hundred and forty five thousand odd extra calves compared to
last year being red. About three years ago it was
the opposite, so we had not all those calves extra
cars being read and we're seeing the fallout of that now, right,
So global beef supplies down, especially in the United States
(03:04):
in some of the Northern Hemisphere countries and those countries
like Australia that are pumping out beef at the moment,
are really being able to capitalize on those high prices, right,
And we've got a lot of supply in New Zealand,
so that's sort of adding a little bit of upside
to our prices as well. But actually that every dietball
value is high and that's not related to our supply
here in New Zealand. So it's a great opportunity to
(03:26):
you know, perhaps a few of these extra calves. We're
not saying it's going to be easy or that we
can rear hunt see of the calves, because that's you know,
unlikely however, you know, and the report talks about this,
but if we rear if we have a kind of
meaty goal of extra say six hundred thousand calves at
today's current market prices, that's you know, that's unlocking about
(03:47):
another one point two billion conservatively, you know, and the
rythmtics book check. So it's an interesting proposition.
Speaker 1 (03:55):
I think, yeah, absolutely, okay, So what are the challenges
you talk about? It won't be easy and there's a
bit of time I'm involved, but what are the key
challenges preventing the wider adoption of this's given the good outlook.
Speaker 2 (04:06):
Yeah, that's right, And this isn't a new topic, right,
So dairy beef has been a topic that we've discussed
over the many many years we being New Zealand, and broadly
there's three of challenges, hey mosh, so I can touch
on all of these, but firstly are pastoral farming systems.
Secondly car rearing it's a challenge, and then also kind
(04:27):
of this collaborative approach that we might need between the sectors,
so dairy and beef in perhaps the industry as well.
So number one, our farming systems in New Zealand, we're
really set up here around pasture growth and the pasture
growth curve, which is seasonal and in a dairy sense,
this makes a lot of sense, right because we want
peak past supply lining up with peak milk supply and
(04:48):
the demand that cows deer cows have at that time.
So we all understand, you know that that's the way
our systems are set up. But this makes it really
challenging in a carving sense and different to many oversease
countries that might be carving just all for a year,
equal amounts of cars each month, and that makes it
a little easier for wearing, for labor, for basically for
a farm system. So under seasonal carving in New Zealanders
(05:10):
is mostly in spring. There's also pockets of botum carving now,
which is great, but this creates a short and intense
window where calves are born over six to eight weeks,
a lot of carves, a lot of calves, and how
do we rear all of those calves. We're already going
to read here replacements. The other nuance we've got these
young dairy heifer cows coming through. They need a low
(05:31):
birth weight fire that means you know, easy carving out
in the pastures shortly station link. There's been something that's
been a real focus to really make sure that carving
period is compact and growth rates. You know, all these
calves born to these heifers, all these cows. Hasn't always
been the goal because A we just need he replacements
(05:52):
and b we need to get the calves safely out
of the cow so that they can start producing milk.
The other big elephant in the room if we think
about pastoral systems in New Zealanders, if we want to
rear all the calves, where are we going to put them,
so that's obviously something that we addressing the report and extra,
say just two million calves would have to go somewhere,
so of course we don't want that to be at
(06:13):
the expense of our beef breeding herd or are used.
So this is where it gets really challenging in New Zealand.
So the second big one is calf wearing, and we
focus on this quite a lot in the report in
the New Zealand Report because it's it is a nuanced
it's got so many cars being bought once. Labor is
always a challenge in our primary sector around you know,
people to actually wear these calves, and we've seen the
(06:36):
boom bus cycle over the different years with calves being
read in numbers. Infrastructure around carf wearing is also an
interesting one, isn't it, Because we have these sheds that
are used for this really intense and short period of
time and it makes it difficult to have that capital
infrastructure sitting there empty maybe for other parts of the year.
So we can talk about split carving and other ways
that we can get around this, but it's not necessarily easy.
(06:58):
But overall, and I think the third one is really
just some great coordination and feedback loops across their value
supply chain for dairy beef in New Zealand could really
mean that we have a more consistent pathway for dairy
beef and we could really be sort of jumping into
those tailwinds of the high prices like we are seeing
now out there.
Speaker 1 (07:18):
Yeah, good stuff and the opportunities there. There are some challenges,
but wrapping up Jim, the outlook looking pretty good five
to ten years down on the track. There's some positive
thinking and there's real real green shoots here.
Speaker 2 (07:34):
Yeah, certainly some green shirts and opportunities are always faced
with challenge, right, But this report's really just opening up
the conversation around what are our challenges, why are we
doing And there's a global report as well that sort
of sits in line with us one to compare some
of the other global systems and how they're doing dairy beef.
But how also we are quite different here, so we
need to have a lot of grace with ourselves. But yeah,
(07:56):
great opportunity. The beef pricing is going to be strong
over the next two to three years in New Zealand.
We think, and and certainly beefers a versatile protein. People
know what to do with its popular, healthy, real food.
So yeah, we'll have a stake for Dinism. I think.
Speaker 1 (08:10):
Yeah, amazing what that little bit of water and a
bit of grass and a bit of sunshine can do.
I here go. Fantastic, Jen, thank you very much, much appreciated.
Speaker 2 (08:20):
Thanks much to Talk Tennis.
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