December 2, 2025 • 6 mins
RaboResearch senior animal protein analyst on beef and lamb prices at record highs and why their prospects are so good for this season.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
You know one at rabobank and I love Rabobank. Dearely
(00:02):
has a short title. Let's introduce Jen Corkran. Let me
find her title RABO Research, Senior Animal Protein Analyst. Hello, Jen,
Welcome to the country. How do you remember your own title?
Speaker 2 (00:15):
Good afternoon, Jamie. No, I definitely struggle to remember my
own job title at times, so it is a bit
of a mouthful, but basically looking at red meat most
of the time.
Speaker 1 (00:26):
For my job, it's interesting the dynamics out there at
the moment. And we've talked about the GDT auction overnight,
and there is under a bit of pressure at the moment.
It's all a supply and demand story. The price goes up,
they turn the tap on around the world, and then
the price goes down. Now when it comes to red
meat at the moment, there's a different dynamic, whether it's
beef or lamb, because there's just not enough of it
(00:49):
around in the world at the moment, and that's why
our sheep and beef farmers are enjoying record prices.
Speaker 2 (00:56):
That's right, Jamie. So what we're seeing is really the
outcome of the lack of supply globally of red meat
and in particular beef, but of course the niche sheep
meat that we're so good at exporting along with the
Australians as in demand too, and there's not as much
of that about. So we're seeing high prices across both
(01:17):
sheep meat and beef at the moment end. It's yeah,
they're at record highs.
Speaker 1 (01:20):
Well, we'll come back to the lamb because I understand
the farmers are getting eleven dollars a kilo, which is
fantastic money. But the beef, it's all about trump and
as hamburgers, let's face it, they can't get enough of
our lean grinding meat for their hamburgers.
Speaker 2 (01:35):
That's right. And this has been a story well told
this year, hasn't it in something that has been expecting
to continue and we expect to continue into the next
couple of years. So we've just released to report the
Global Beef Quarterly which looks kind of at the key
production regions for beef around the world in terms of
those exporting nations, and production is expected to decline again
(01:56):
next year and we also are looking at just a
little bit less one percent in a decline from twenty
twenty four levels this year in terms of that total supply. Now,
if we think that demand is steady to increasing globally,
and it is at the moment, you know, there's just
not enough to go around. And in particular that US market,
which is sotant important for New Zealand, is really demanding
(02:17):
that lean trim to put in their hamburgers. And we
haven't seen any downside in that demand yet. Yes.
Speaker 1 (02:21):
And also I think late last week and we referred
to this one in Rural News, the fact that beef vince,
the old hardy staple, is no longer a cheap protein option.
I mean, it's more expensive than a lamb shop. I
can't believe it.
Speaker 2 (02:37):
I know, it's crazy, isn't it, Jamie En. So for
the last about eighteen months, mince retail prices based on
the averages by stepsin Z has been slightly higher than
a kelow of lambtrops, which is wild because we think,
you know, that beef is the more affordable sort of
commodity beef option for us at the supermarket here in
New Zealand. But it's because that exact product is what
(02:59):
these mackets in the US are really really wanting right now.
So we've seen an eighteen percent increase in that retail
price from October last year to October this year, which
is quite a lot, so you know, well over twenty
dollars or twenty three dollars a kilo I think it
is on average for mints at the moment. So it's
not cheap for a keel of months to make your
teddy see your burgers this this summer.
Speaker 1 (03:19):
Yeah, I know what I would pick if I had
a choice out of beef, mints and a lamb chop.
But anyhow, Look, it's just the supply and demand equation,
isn't it. And then of course when things get too expensive,
either other people jump in and supply them. That's not
that easy for red meat in the short term, or
the consumer substitutes to alternatives. And the alternatives in the
(03:42):
protein space, I guess are chicken and pork.
Speaker 2 (03:46):
Yeah, that's right, Jamie. And what we tend to see
globally in these sort of situations is that while you know,
as these prices increase, and for beef, if we're talking
about at the moment, as the price continue to go
up and up and up, at some point the consumer
is going to push there can say okay, enough is enough.
I don't want to pay that price, and what you
start to see is people will start to trade down
(04:06):
into some of those cheaper proteins such as poultry and pork,
although by less you know, volume of mints and other things.
But the other big one is that some of those
quick service restaurants globally, so if you think of ucfc's
and your McDonald's, the QSRs, they are actually sort of
offering more from that poultry space as well. So grain
(04:28):
prices are cheap globally, it's pretty cheap the afford to
produce poultry quite quickly versus beef, which is really expensive.
So they are feeling it as well and actually having
a bigger offering of some of these other proteins, which
will be one to watch I think in twenty twenty six,
and we might even see it here in New Zealand.
You know, as McDonald's talks about how much more expensive
it is, I think each petty is about ten cents
(04:48):
more at the moment for them, so considering how many
they are serving up, that add up, so we might
see more chicken on the menu. So it'll be you know,
evid beef consumers will need to go hunting and still
may perhaps pay a little bit more for an extitute.
Speaker 1 (05:02):
Let's just finish on lamb. How sustainable are these prices
at present? Normally the normal cycle for lambs once the
main waning happens, which is happening around the country at
the moment, and the flood of stock come onto the market.
But there isn't really a flood of stock that the
lamb schedule goes down. Can it hold at eleven dollars
or even ten dollars?
Speaker 2 (05:23):
Yeah, So it's interesting, isn't it. That price has been
holding steady sort of. The average AGH two price has
been holding steadied around that eleven dollar mark across the
North and South Islands over the last three four weeks,
and you know, we're expecting it to start to go
down any minute, but it seems, you know, processes are
still offering these prices, Jamie, So we'll just have to
keep an eye on this. You know, we know that
(05:43):
the global demand is good, that average expook price that
rich waters are receiving for lamb is very strong at
the moment, and you know, therefore there's a good margin.
So we'll see what, you know, what that supplied does
as lambs start to come in and whether that means
we see some softening. But you know, we normally might
see between dollar and a dollar fifty coming out of
the schedule through that peak supply, and at the moment,
(06:05):
it hasn't started going down, and perhaps it's a sign
that it might not see the same softness that we
normally see, given you know, perhaps lamp supplies about as
similar as it was last year.
Speaker 1 (06:15):
This year, gee, your schedule bottoming out at ten bucks. See,
I think sheep farmers would take that, grab that with
both hands. Jen Corkran Rabo Research Senior Animal protein Analyst.
Thanks for your time and I'll leave you in peace
to go and practice your title.
Speaker 2 (06:30):
Thanks Jamie,
You know one at rabobank and I love Rabobank. Dearely
(00:02):
has a short title. Let's introduce Jen Corkran. Let me
find her title RABO Research, Senior Animal Protein Analyst. Hello, Jen,
Welcome to the country. How do you remember your own title?
Speaker 2 (00:15):
Good afternoon, Jamie. No, I definitely struggle to remember my
own job title at times, so it is a bit
of a mouthful, but basically looking at red meat most
of the time.
Speaker 1 (00:26):
For my job, it's interesting the dynamics out there at
the moment. And we've talked about the GDT auction overnight,
and there is under a bit of pressure at the moment.
It's all a supply and demand story. The price goes up,
they turn the tap on around the world, and then
the price goes down. Now when it comes to red
meat at the moment, there's a different dynamic, whether it's
beef or lamb, because there's just not enough of it
(00:49):
around in the world at the moment, and that's why
our sheep and beef farmers are enjoying record prices.
Speaker 2 (00:56):
That's right, Jamie. So what we're seeing is really the
outcome of the lack of supply globally of red meat
and in particular beef, but of course the niche sheep
meat that we're so good at exporting along with the
Australians as in demand too, and there's not as much
of that about. So we're seeing high prices across both
(01:17):
sheep meat and beef at the moment end. It's yeah,
they're at record highs.
Speaker 1 (01:20):
Well, we'll come back to the lamb because I understand
the farmers are getting eleven dollars a kilo, which is
fantastic money. But the beef, it's all about trump and
as hamburgers, let's face it, they can't get enough of
our lean grinding meat for their hamburgers.
Speaker 2 (01:35):
That's right. And this has been a story well told
this year, hasn't it in something that has been expecting
to continue and we expect to continue into the next
couple of years. So we've just released to report the
Global Beef Quarterly which looks kind of at the key
production regions for beef around the world in terms of
those exporting nations, and production is expected to decline again
(01:56):
next year and we also are looking at just a
little bit less one percent in a decline from twenty
twenty four levels this year in terms of that total supply. Now,
if we think that demand is steady to increasing globally,
and it is at the moment, you know, there's just
not enough to go around. And in particular that US market,
which is sotant important for New Zealand, is really demanding
(02:17):
that lean trim to put in their hamburgers. And we
haven't seen any downside in that demand yet. Yes.
Speaker 1 (02:21):
And also I think late last week and we referred
to this one in Rural News, the fact that beef vince,
the old hardy staple, is no longer a cheap protein option.
I mean, it's more expensive than a lamb shop. I
can't believe it.
Speaker 2 (02:37):
I know, it's crazy, isn't it, Jamie En. So for
the last about eighteen months, mince retail prices based on
the averages by stepsin Z has been slightly higher than
a kelow of lambtrops, which is wild because we think,
you know, that beef is the more affordable sort of
commodity beef option for us at the supermarket here in
New Zealand. But it's because that exact product is what
(02:59):
these mackets in the US are really really wanting right now.
So we've seen an eighteen percent increase in that retail
price from October last year to October this year, which
is quite a lot, so you know, well over twenty
dollars or twenty three dollars a kilo I think it
is on average for mints at the moment. So it's
not cheap for a keel of months to make your
teddy see your burgers this this summer.
Speaker 1 (03:19):
Yeah, I know what I would pick if I had
a choice out of beef, mints and a lamb chop.
But anyhow, Look, it's just the supply and demand equation,
isn't it. And then of course when things get too expensive,
either other people jump in and supply them. That's not
that easy for red meat in the short term, or
the consumer substitutes to alternatives. And the alternatives in the
(03:42):
protein space, I guess are chicken and pork.
Speaker 2 (03:46):
Yeah, that's right, Jamie. And what we tend to see
globally in these sort of situations is that while you know,
as these prices increase, and for beef, if we're talking
about at the moment, as the price continue to go
up and up and up, at some point the consumer
is going to push there can say okay, enough is enough.
I don't want to pay that price, and what you
start to see is people will start to trade down
(04:06):
into some of those cheaper proteins such as poultry and pork,
although by less you know, volume of mints and other things.
But the other big one is that some of those
quick service restaurants globally, so if you think of ucfc's
and your McDonald's, the QSRs, they are actually sort of
offering more from that poultry space as well. So grain
(04:28):
prices are cheap globally, it's pretty cheap the afford to
produce poultry quite quickly versus beef, which is really expensive.
So they are feeling it as well and actually having
a bigger offering of some of these other proteins, which
will be one to watch I think in twenty twenty six,
and we might even see it here in New Zealand.
You know, as McDonald's talks about how much more expensive
it is, I think each petty is about ten cents
(04:48):
more at the moment for them, so considering how many
they are serving up, that add up, so we might
see more chicken on the menu. So it'll be you know,
evid beef consumers will need to go hunting and still
may perhaps pay a little bit more for an extitute.
Speaker 1 (05:02):
Let's just finish on lamb. How sustainable are these prices
at present? Normally the normal cycle for lambs once the
main waning happens, which is happening around the country at
the moment, and the flood of stock come onto the market.
But there isn't really a flood of stock that the
lamb schedule goes down. Can it hold at eleven dollars
or even ten dollars?
Speaker 2 (05:23):
Yeah, So it's interesting, isn't it. That price has been
holding steady sort of. The average AGH two price has
been holding steadied around that eleven dollar mark across the
North and South Islands over the last three four weeks,
and you know, we're expecting it to start to go
down any minute, but it seems, you know, processes are
still offering these prices, Jamie, So we'll just have to
keep an eye on this. You know, we know that
(05:43):
the global demand is good, that average expook price that
rich waters are receiving for lamb is very strong at
the moment, and you know, therefore there's a good margin.
So we'll see what, you know, what that supplied does
as lambs start to come in and whether that means
we see some softening. But you know, we normally might
see between dollar and a dollar fifty coming out of
the schedule through that peak supply, and at the moment,
(06:05):
it hasn't started going down, and perhaps it's a sign
that it might not see the same softness that we
normally see, given you know, perhaps lamp supplies about as
similar as it was last year.
Speaker 1 (06:15):
This year, gee, your schedule bottoming out at ten bucks. See,
I think sheep farmers would take that, grab that with
both hands. Jen Corkran Rabo Research Senior Animal protein Analyst.
Thanks for your time and I'll leave you in peace
to go and practice your title.
Speaker 2 (06:30):
Thanks Jamie,
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