The Country 04/08/25: Chris Brandolino talks to Jamie Mackay

We have a look at the Earth Science NZ's updated three-month weather outlook.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Rody. I I've tracked him down. Chris Brandolino missed them
on Friday. We always get our man here on the country.
Chris from Earth Sciences News or Earth Science in z
formerly known as newa You're updated three months outlook for
the most important three months on the farming calendar, August,
September and October. What do you got for us, mate?

Speaker 2 (00:20):
Yeah? Look, I know it's been chilly the past few days.
We had some cold mornings across especially the South Island
and certainly parts of the North Island, but that will
not be a theen jammy for the next three months.
I think for much of New Zealand we're expect above
average temperatures, so that could be you know what that
means in terms of a farming contact, perhaps an early
start to the growing season. We still have to watch
for frost. I mean, look, it's winter and early spring,

(00:42):
so these things will happen. Bought our expectations that cold
snaps and frosts are likely to be simply less frequent
than what is usual. Notice Less frequent does not equal zero,
so let's be abundantly clear. In rainfall, rainfall is expected
to be above normal for northern and eastern parts of
the North Isle, so I think those area have the
best chances for onether than usual conditions. Bay a Plenty,

(01:04):
Hawks Bay, Tadafati, gisban Cooramandel, Wakato, Northland, Auckland. One area, Jamie,
if there's going to be unusually dry weather over the
next three months, or I guess if we have below
normal rainfall, it'll likely be the west of the South Island,
and that's one area where we're thinking that either normal
or below normal rainfall will occur over the three month period,

(01:27):
So places like Southland, Interior Otago on the west coast,
that'll be a place worth watching. So again La Nina
is going to emerge. It looks like as one of
the main climate drivers over the next few months, and
not a really driver airflows and therefore rainfall patterns as well.

Speaker 1 (01:43):
It was nice to say the Tasman Nelson region kind
of dodge a bullet at the end of last week,
wasn't it, because that could have been a lot uglier.

Speaker 2 (01:52):
Yeah, they got a lot of rain, but I think
what happened is that there was that about ten to
twelve day period where it was largely dry weather and
that did help and where the rain fell too. It
depends on where exactly in the catchings, but you're right, Jamie,
to your point, it certainly could have been a lot worse.
And with those airflows less westerlies. We're expecting the next

(02:12):
three months, so we'll get wester just less of them,
but they're going to be replaced with more kind of
east to northeast winds. And when we get those air flows,
particularly from the northeast or northerly type wind that is
when we run the risk for these big rainfall events.
So I think for August, I have to watch the
second half of August. That is when things are coming
together where we could see a noticeable increase with our weather,

(02:36):
especially influences from the north, so we could see more
active weather chants for big rainfall events second half of August.
Especially until then, we'll watch later this week looks like
a decent rainfall event for the west of the South File.
We get some rain from the north of the North
Island as well Friday night to Saturday. But again it's
middle part of August and beyond we'll have to keep
your eyes on.

Speaker 1 (02:57):
Okay, Mike gott to Guy, thanks for you. It's on
Chris Brendeline from newak