August 4, 2025 • 8 mins
Former Minister for Primary Industries and current Chair of The Meat Industry Association and Apiculture NZ. The imposition of a 15% tariff on New Zealand exports to the United States could cost the red meat sector an estimated $300 million. We also discuss the recapitalisation of the Alliance Group and tough times for the honey industry.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Nathan Guy, former Minister of Primary Industries. Do you ever
go to the movies these days?
Speaker 2 (00:04):
Nathan, No, I don't. I just signed up to Netflix,
so probably the comfort of the home near the log burners.
But going into the movies unfortunately.
Speaker 1 (00:13):
Well, there is something about the big screen. Anyhow, I'd
give Superman a like a seven out of ten if
you and Erica decide to go to the movies.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
Look, Tomiet is not listening.
Speaker 1 (00:28):
I hope it could be date night for you. Spice
things up a bit, Nathan.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
Yeah, did you get a chop bomb and some popcorn?
Jamie or no?
Speaker 1 (00:37):
No, not the popcorn, but always buy the chocolate ice cream.
It's an essential. Anyhow, let's get on to the issues
of the day. Putting on first, I guess your Meat
Industry Association hat how badly are these and we're going
to get Cameron Bagger's take on this one as well,
But how badly are these tariffs going from ten to
fifteen percent going to affect our red meat industry. It's
(01:02):
estimated to cost US three hundred million or three hundred
extra million.
Speaker 2 (01:07):
It will have an impact because ten percent has been
passed on by and large right through to consumers. This
one is going to be more problematic. The extra five percent.
It doesn't sound like a lot, but the reality is
be a hell of an arm wrestle with importers. So
unfortunately it is going to be a bit of a
pain point for our red meat sector and in fact
(01:30):
all those exporting up into the US. It feels to me, Jamie,
like fifteen percent might be here for a while. I
think we can hope for the best, but I think
we need to prepare for it to hang around on.
Please that Van gallis, our top trade official, is up
there now, and I believe Minister McClay is going to
(01:51):
be heading up shortly.
Speaker 1 (01:53):
Yeah, but I mean, hang on, Nathan, we're a pimple
on the backside of America or the American economy. We
can go and plead our case for all we're worth,
but Trump ain't going to listen.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
Now. Apparently he just sat down and looked, you know
who had a trade surplus. We were, unfortunately there with
thirty seven other countries. I don't think there's anything really
that we could have done to avoid that. We have
to just deal with the cards that are dealt to us,
and unfortunately, fifteen percent, as I say, it feels like
it's going to be hanging around for a while. But
(02:26):
we also need to wait and see what comes out
of these meetings that are currently happening in Washington and
when Minister McLay gets up there shortly.
Speaker 1 (02:34):
But I think one of the worrying issues for US
is the fact that one of our main competitors in
terms of putting red meat into the American market, Australia,
sitting at ten percent.
Speaker 2 (02:45):
Yes, that is a concern. Of course they have got
an FDA, a free trade agreement, but they've still got
a ten percent tariff. So there's other countries that have
negotiated with President Trump in his last term, Canada, Mexico,
and China. They all got but they're all back on
the table now for renegotiation. So there's a lot of uncertainty.
(03:06):
If this does push through into consumers and they feel
it in their back pocket, it might be that these
could be reviewed. So never say never, Jamie Well, I.
Speaker 1 (03:15):
Guess the good news part of the story is, Nathan guy,
the Americans still can't get enough of our red meat,
especially our beef. Our grinding beef.
Speaker 2 (03:25):
Oh yes, j important lowers their bug count ours is frozen,
and there's a whole lot of fatty product that goes
into the hamburger market, and we've got a great reputation.
So if burger prices go up and the average America
needs three a week, they might just find that these
tariffs are impacting them out of all the burger chains.
(03:48):
So we just got to wait and see. I think
calm heads will prevail and see what these high level
meetings in Washington may or may not deliver.
Speaker 1 (03:56):
It along the way to deal to recapitalize the Alliance
appears to be close. The Irish Times reported over the
weekend that Dawn Meets are set to stump up with
two hundred and seventy million for a seventy percent stake
in the Alliance, which was well, it still is are
(04:16):
only fully one hundred percent owned cooperative meat company in
this country, So is the Alliance groups are gone as
far as the co op goes obviously.
Speaker 2 (04:26):
Well, that's certainly the way it reads. I read that
article as well, Jamie an alliance aren't saying anything. I
think there's a meeting coming up in a couple of
weeks time, so we'll all find out. What I do
hope is that we get a bit more certainty in
the red meat sector. Okay, we're talking about global uncertainty.
On one hand, it'd be quite good to get this
(04:46):
sort of If it is indeed who you speculating, or
who the article speculated to be first cab off the
rank and going to take a reasonable chunk of Alliance,
I just think, well, if it stacks up and farmers
vote for it, let's get on with it. We need
structural certainty in this industry, not people looking over their shoulders.
Speaker 1 (05:10):
Hey, when I was preparing recently for a funeral eulogy
of an old mate of mine, we've came up with
this wonderful picture of him and John Key. He wasn't
a sur in those days, in a farm paddick in Riversdale.
The year is two thousand and nine and the talkers,
John Key's talking it up of a mega merger between
the Alliance Group and Silver Fir and Farms. Is it
(05:30):
a real shame that that didn't happen.
Speaker 2 (05:34):
I'm not sure you know. The meat industry excellence. They
came to me, they had a plan. I sat in
the meeting with John Care at one stage and he said, well,
if you bring the two chairs and the two chief
executives in here to talk. We'll listen. But that never eventuated.
So history as the saying I never repeats itself, but
(05:58):
in this case, it is eating itself. I just hope
that we can get some positive momentum in the red
meat sector. This has been a bit of a cloud
over Alliance for a year or two now, and farmers
need certainty make sure that the stock's going to be processed,
they're going to get well paid, and I hope for
the best for Aliance.
Speaker 1 (06:19):
Hey, Nathan, I look at the two most successful primary
sectors at the moment and that would have to be
dairy and Kiwi fruit. And I look at Fonterra allbit
it doesn't it controls about eighty percent of the market
or just under eighty. And then I look at Zespri
what they're doing with single desk selling, and I think
they've got they've got a better structure than the red
meat industry.
Speaker 2 (06:39):
Well, there's Fronterira with a fantastic cop hugely successful, had
a bit of a bumpy ride but certainly hit its
straps under Miles Hurrel and new board leadership. So doing
fantastically well. Zesprey very lucky to get the single desk.
Some think that there should be some sort of mega
merger with meat companies. I don't think that will ever happen.
(07:03):
There might be collaboration in the background, but when you
think about it, this Chinese investment, this Japanese investment, there's
private investment into the red meat sector. So I think
any talk of Omega merger is probably unrealistic. But there
is opportunities for companies to collaborate in what I've seen
and heard that starting to happen.
Speaker 1 (07:24):
Nathan guy with Us a former Minister of Primary Industry's
current chair of the Meat Industry Association, also current Chair
of Apriculture in Zed put on your honey hat, Nathan.
The industry is struggling.
Speaker 2 (07:40):
There's a struggle. The reality is that there's still a
bit of a stockpile that's got to work its way
through from pre COVID levels. So that's unfortunate. The moment
that moves through and we get a bit more positivity
in the market on the back of COVID and there's
a conn means are starting to crank a little bit.
(08:02):
There are a few green shoots and we know that
Manuka is hugely successful and amazing product, natural taste, its
multi purpose, goes into neutraceuticals, pharmaceuticals, high value products, you
name it. So we know it's a real success. And
we've got to get alignment, which is I'm trying to
help the honey sector to get alignment, to try and
(08:25):
move the politics out of the way so that we
can work constructively together with beekeepers right through the supply chain.
Speaker 1 (08:33):
Nathan guy, thanks for your time today in the country.
As I said, Date Night with Erica, you go to Superman,
you won't regret it.
Speaker 2 (08:40):
Good on you, Jamie, have a good day. There we go.
Speaker 1 (08:43):
Thanks Nathan
Nathan Guy, former Minister of Primary Industries. Do you ever
go to the movies these days?
Speaker 2 (00:04):
Nathan, No, I don't. I just signed up to Netflix,
so probably the comfort of the home near the log burners.
But going into the movies unfortunately.
Speaker 1 (00:13):
Well, there is something about the big screen. Anyhow, I'd
give Superman a like a seven out of ten if
you and Erica decide to go to the movies.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
Look, Tomiet is not listening.
Speaker 1 (00:28):
I hope it could be date night for you. Spice
things up a bit, Nathan.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
Yeah, did you get a chop bomb and some popcorn?
Jamie or no?
Speaker 1 (00:37):
No, not the popcorn, but always buy the chocolate ice cream.
It's an essential. Anyhow, let's get on to the issues
of the day. Putting on first, I guess your Meat
Industry Association hat how badly are these and we're going
to get Cameron Bagger's take on this one as well,
But how badly are these tariffs going from ten to
fifteen percent going to affect our red meat industry. It's
(01:02):
estimated to cost US three hundred million or three hundred
extra million.
Speaker 2 (01:07):
It will have an impact because ten percent has been
passed on by and large right through to consumers. This
one is going to be more problematic. The extra five percent.
It doesn't sound like a lot, but the reality is
be a hell of an arm wrestle with importers. So
unfortunately it is going to be a bit of a
pain point for our red meat sector and in fact
(01:30):
all those exporting up into the US. It feels to me, Jamie,
like fifteen percent might be here for a while. I
think we can hope for the best, but I think
we need to prepare for it to hang around on.
Please that Van gallis, our top trade official, is up
there now, and I believe Minister McClay is going to
(01:51):
be heading up shortly.
Speaker 1 (01:53):
Yeah, but I mean, hang on, Nathan, we're a pimple
on the backside of America or the American economy. We
can go and plead our case for all we're worth,
but Trump ain't going to listen.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
Now. Apparently he just sat down and looked, you know
who had a trade surplus. We were, unfortunately there with
thirty seven other countries. I don't think there's anything really
that we could have done to avoid that. We have
to just deal with the cards that are dealt to us,
and unfortunately, fifteen percent, as I say, it feels like
it's going to be hanging around for a while. But
(02:26):
we also need to wait and see what comes out
of these meetings that are currently happening in Washington and
when Minister McLay gets up there shortly.
Speaker 1 (02:34):
But I think one of the worrying issues for US
is the fact that one of our main competitors in
terms of putting red meat into the American market, Australia,
sitting at ten percent.
Speaker 2 (02:45):
Yes, that is a concern. Of course they have got
an FDA, a free trade agreement, but they've still got
a ten percent tariff. So there's other countries that have
negotiated with President Trump in his last term, Canada, Mexico,
and China. They all got but they're all back on
the table now for renegotiation. So there's a lot of uncertainty.
(03:06):
If this does push through into consumers and they feel
it in their back pocket, it might be that these
could be reviewed. So never say never, Jamie Well, I.
Speaker 1 (03:15):
Guess the good news part of the story is, Nathan guy,
the Americans still can't get enough of our red meat,
especially our beef. Our grinding beef.
Speaker 2 (03:25):
Oh yes, j important lowers their bug count ours is frozen,
and there's a whole lot of fatty product that goes
into the hamburger market, and we've got a great reputation.
So if burger prices go up and the average America
needs three a week, they might just find that these
tariffs are impacting them out of all the burger chains.
(03:48):
So we just got to wait and see. I think
calm heads will prevail and see what these high level
meetings in Washington may or may not deliver.
Speaker 1 (03:56):
It along the way to deal to recapitalize the Alliance
appears to be close. The Irish Times reported over the
weekend that Dawn Meets are set to stump up with
two hundred and seventy million for a seventy percent stake
in the Alliance, which was well, it still is are
(04:16):
only fully one hundred percent owned cooperative meat company in
this country, So is the Alliance groups are gone as
far as the co op goes obviously.
Speaker 2 (04:26):
Well, that's certainly the way it reads. I read that
article as well, Jamie an alliance aren't saying anything. I
think there's a meeting coming up in a couple of
weeks time, so we'll all find out. What I do
hope is that we get a bit more certainty in
the red meat sector. Okay, we're talking about global uncertainty.
On one hand, it'd be quite good to get this
(04:46):
sort of If it is indeed who you speculating, or
who the article speculated to be first cab off the
rank and going to take a reasonable chunk of Alliance,
I just think, well, if it stacks up and farmers
vote for it, let's get on with it. We need
structural certainty in this industry, not people looking over their shoulders.
Speaker 1 (05:10):
Hey, when I was preparing recently for a funeral eulogy
of an old mate of mine, we've came up with
this wonderful picture of him and John Key. He wasn't
a sur in those days, in a farm paddick in Riversdale.
The year is two thousand and nine and the talkers,
John Key's talking it up of a mega merger between
the Alliance Group and Silver Fir and Farms. Is it
(05:30):
a real shame that that didn't happen.
Speaker 2 (05:34):
I'm not sure you know. The meat industry excellence. They
came to me, they had a plan. I sat in
the meeting with John Care at one stage and he said, well,
if you bring the two chairs and the two chief
executives in here to talk. We'll listen. But that never eventuated.
So history as the saying I never repeats itself, but
(05:58):
in this case, it is eating itself. I just hope
that we can get some positive momentum in the red
meat sector. This has been a bit of a cloud
over Alliance for a year or two now, and farmers
need certainty make sure that the stock's going to be processed,
they're going to get well paid, and I hope for
the best for Aliance.
Speaker 1 (06:19):
Hey, Nathan, I look at the two most successful primary
sectors at the moment and that would have to be
dairy and Kiwi fruit. And I look at Fonterra allbit
it doesn't it controls about eighty percent of the market
or just under eighty. And then I look at Zespri
what they're doing with single desk selling, and I think
they've got they've got a better structure than the red
meat industry.
Speaker 2 (06:39):
Well, there's Fronterira with a fantastic cop hugely successful, had
a bit of a bumpy ride but certainly hit its
straps under Miles Hurrel and new board leadership. So doing
fantastically well. Zesprey very lucky to get the single desk.
Some think that there should be some sort of mega
merger with meat companies. I don't think that will ever happen.
(07:03):
There might be collaboration in the background, but when you
think about it, this Chinese investment, this Japanese investment, there's
private investment into the red meat sector. So I think
any talk of Omega merger is probably unrealistic. But there
is opportunities for companies to collaborate in what I've seen
and heard that starting to happen.
Speaker 1 (07:24):
Nathan guy with Us a former Minister of Primary Industry's
current chair of the Meat Industry Association, also current Chair
of Apriculture in Zed put on your honey hat, Nathan.
The industry is struggling.
Speaker 2 (07:40):
There's a struggle. The reality is that there's still a
bit of a stockpile that's got to work its way
through from pre COVID levels. So that's unfortunate. The moment
that moves through and we get a bit more positivity
in the market on the back of COVID and there's
a conn means are starting to crank a little bit.
(08:02):
There are a few green shoots and we know that
Manuka is hugely successful and amazing product, natural taste, its
multi purpose, goes into neutraceuticals, pharmaceuticals, high value products, you
name it. So we know it's a real success. And
we've got to get alignment, which is I'm trying to
help the honey sector to get alignment, to try and
(08:25):
move the politics out of the way so that we
can work constructively together with beekeepers right through the supply chain.
Speaker 1 (08:33):
Nathan guy, thanks for your time today in the country.
As I said, Date Night with Erica, you go to Superman,
you won't regret it.
Speaker 2 (08:40):
Good on you, Jamie, have a good day. There we go.
Speaker 1 (08:43):
Thanks Nathan
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