The Country 07/05/25: Jen Corkran talks to Jamie Mackay

Rabobank's Senior Animal Proteins Analyst reviews the sheep and beef sections from the bank's May Agribusiness Monthly Report. And it makes for good reading.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hot off the press from Rabobank the May agg Monthly Report.
The author certainly of the beef and sheep meat sections
as Jen Corkran, Senior Animal Proteins analyst, Jen. This must
have been good fun writing this positive report.

Speaker 2 (00:18):
Certainly good fun, Jamien, good, good afternoon to you. We
I was reflecting whilst wroting is actually on the difference
in messages, you know, in the different and outlog that
we've got across read meat broadly versus this time last year.
And it was certainly good fun looking at the data
and just and seeing such a good news story there
in terms of our more returns and you know, those

(00:40):
returns getting returned to our New Zealand producers, which is
great new.

Speaker 1 (00:45):
Well, well let's have a look at sheep. You know, this
time a year ago or last season, six bucks a
kilo for lamb and now it's eight dollars or better.
And no one picked this rise, and the rise continues.
It seems that we can't produce enough lamb.

Speaker 2 (01:00):
Yeah, that's very much true. So we're seeing you know,
store lamb pricing as well as you know, so trying
to restock their peed X is also up back at
twenty two levels, and I think, you know, we've got
this interesting thing going on. So we've got tighter supplies globally,
and we've got a more diverse range of export markets,

(01:21):
especially for lamb. So we've heard all these messages throughout
the year, but it's fair say no one's predicted the
pricing to be worded it now, and the outlooks certainly
really strong for the rest of the season and then
too next season as well. Interestingly, the Australian cross is
still really high at the moment, so obviously there is
great global demand because that competition's actually stored a similar

(01:43):
level to its last year.

Speaker 1 (01:44):
At the moment, beef record demand, record prices doesn't look
like easing. And this is despite Trump's tariffs.

Speaker 2 (01:54):
Yes that is true, and record export earnings for beef
in the month of March, and that is quite remarkable really. Obviously,
the New Zealand dollar being weak here is helping that,
but that global demand being driven by the US is
the big thing here, and we just know that they're
going to continue to need that grinding beef and therefore

(02:16):
the demand is expected to remain. Of course, the tariffs
and what's going on with the reshuffling and global trade
is something that we'll watch, but it's looking like overall
that global suppli of beef is down. In the demand
for particularly that New Zealand lenter and product, which is
rising all prices is going to continue.

Speaker 1 (02:33):
Hey, just perhaps a final comment, and I don't want
to be negative Nelly on this one, but we are
trumpeting these really good relative to last season lamb prices.
But you know, as any sheep farmer would tell you,
lamb needs to be ten bucks aquilo, not eight dollars
aequilo if they're really to make some meaningful money and

(02:54):
fight off the carbon farmer's.

Speaker 2 (02:56):
Gen Yes, I one hundred percent agreed, Amen, These prices
increases are returning to where they need to be, and
I think this still room to move upwards there in
terms of the cost structure that we see on farms too.
So one hundred percent agree, somewhere close to ten dollars
will be a nice place to settle. So we'll keep
watching those prices, but certainly at the moment it's looking

(03:18):
they were heading in the right direction, and the fundamentals
going into the next couple of years are also indicating
that the demand could remain quite strong, so we will
all be gunning for that double digit pay.

Speaker 1 (03:30):
Yeah, let's bring on ten dollars, although the dairy farmers
might want eleven now, but certainly ten for beef and
lamb would be excellent. The key we for it. Guys
mightn't like ten bucks, but all and all, it's all
pretty positive. All you need to do, Gen you can
go away and ponder this is how to get strong
wall up to ten dollars a kilo. I'll see you
at field days.

Speaker 2 (03:49):
See your field days, Jamie. And wouldn't that ten dollar
will price be the icing on cake