The Country 09/09/25: Kate Acland talks to Jamie Mackay

New Zealand red meat prices are at record levels and are forecast to remain strong throughout the coming year, despite the risk of headwinds on the horizon. This is according to the New Season Outlook for 2025–2026 from Beef + Lamb New Zealand. We catch up with the chairwoman to take a closer look at the report.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Let's kick off today's show with today's big news story
Beef and Lamb New Zealand. Their new season outlook is
out and it highlights high values for sheep and beef,
but risk of headwinds on the horizon. To tell us
more and to tell us about the vastly improved profits
for sheep and beef farmers, is Beef and Lamb New
Zealand board chair Kate Ackland. Kate, I want to start

(00:22):
if I can with the profit. Last season was one
of the worst for farmers since the GFC farm profit
before tax nineteen thousand dollars, forty percent of farms sheep
and beef farms running at a loss, terrible numbers. They're
in for a much better season this season.

Speaker 2 (00:40):
Yeah, look, hi, Jamie. I mean, I think a lot
of us have forgotten just how bad that was, and
it was particularly bad for those those farmers that are
very heavy on sheep. To remember that the new sheep
prices were I would probably not too much for streets
to say catastrophic. So really break to becoming ut with
for good news that the current season forecasting a rise

(01:01):
of one point four billion dollars of exports despite having
lower export volumes, and then the twenty five to twenty
six season forecasters for that to remain steady.

Speaker 1 (01:10):
Now in the twenty four to twenty five season, the
one we're in currently, profitability has or well rebound to
one hundred and thirty nine thousand, or just on one
hundred and thirty nine thousand. For the coming season, that
goes up to one hundred and sixty six and a
half thousand. And while that sounds good when you think
of all the money you've got invested in a sheep

(01:31):
and beef farm, your return on investment still isn't that great.

Speaker 2 (01:36):
Well, look, that's an all seasons average, and that is
actually relative to recent years. It's actually a really good number,
so that takes in all different sizes of farm. I
think the numbers to look at actually is what we're
forecasting for the average stock prices. So the all season
average land price we're looking at one hundred and eighty
dollars for the coming year, and steers and heches and

(01:58):
bulls are over two thousand, so you know, really good
solid returns for the seat. I think the other one
that we're really trying to highlight is that, as we know,
some spend money in their local communities. So the seven
point two billion dollars of farm gate returns fifteen point
five million dollars is bent by farmers every day in
their local communities, so it doesn't just stop at the

(02:20):
farm gate. This is good news for all of rural
New Zealand and those small towns.

Speaker 1 (02:26):
Let's look at some of the risk of headwinds on
the horizon. So far, touch Wood, Trump's tariffs haven't really
been a killer for red meat. Will that remain so.

Speaker 2 (02:38):
Look, we're forecasting the Paris could take five hundred million
dollars out of red meat returns. So it is absolutely
a risk. And I think we've talked about this before
the fact that New Zealand is on fifteen percent and
a lot of our competitors are on the ten percent,
that remains a really significant risk and that could take
some of the some of the shine out of the returns.

Speaker 1 (03:00):
We're certainly getting good returns. Let's put the US to
one side, but the EU and the UK off the
back of free trade agreements, we're getting much better deals
in there.

Speaker 2 (03:11):
They absolutely are. They're becoming some of our highest value markets.
And since the tariff announcements in April, we've seen a
big push of more product into those markets and a
reduction of what we're sending to the US. So I
think it just speaks to the value of having those
really good diversified trading options for US as a country.

Speaker 1 (03:30):
A couple of other risks of headwinds, a stronger forecast
for the New Zealand dollar, Well that's in the lap
of the gods a week, but that one. But this
one maybe we can do something about, or can we
loss of productive New Zealand farmland to carbon forestry. You
guys are saying if we didn't have carbon forestry, we'd
be exporting two billion dollars more in red meat exports.

Speaker 2 (03:54):
Well that's what we're forecasting that the Center has lost
in the last five years just from the reduction in
stock numbers through a forestation, you know, predicting that art
by twenty fifty, the country could forego nearly thirty six
billion dollars in red meat exports. STDA forestation trend continues,
So you know, we need to think as we continue

(04:15):
to plant these trees, we need to think about the
broader in thas to New Zealand as a whole. Because
the redm Ackceptor will continue to return year after year
profits that are spent in local communities.

Speaker 1 (04:26):
Food producing land should produce food, not pine trees. Right tree,
right place, Kate Eckland. While I've got your house. The
season going in mid Canterbury.

Speaker 2 (04:35):
Well, we've had a great start to spring. But as
the windy Old Norwest day today, so be quite good
to get some of the rain that's forecast tomorrow.

Speaker 1 (04:43):
Okay, we'll send some up from the deep South. Thanks
for some of your time today. A really positive new
season outlook from Beef and Lamb, New Zealand.

Speaker 2 (04:51):
Thanks Janny.