The Country 10/03/25: Jen Corkran talks to Jamie Mackay

Rabobank's Senior Ag Analyst reviews the bank's latest Q1 Global Beef Quarterly Report.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
So special guest in the studio today, Jen Corkran. She
is the RABO Research Senior AG Analyst and she's just
authored the Q one Global Beef Quarterly Report. Good to
see you in Dunede and Jen, I know you were
in Wanaka over the weekend for that magnificent Wanica show,
but you're based at HQ in Hamilton with Rabobank, where

(00:21):
it's getting very very dry, the dairy farms of the
Waitekato in particular.

Speaker 2 (00:26):
Yes, Hi Jamie, It's it's lovely to be here in
Dunedin today, a beautiful sunny day after a lovely weekend
in Wannica as well. It is certainly getting dry in
the Waykido and it's kind of I'm getting now is
starting to become a bit more past tense because it's
been dry for quite a few weeks now, so different dynamic.
But in saying that, you know there's been summers that

(00:48):
have been dry in the way eddo and I think
with the last couple of kind ones in terms of rainfall,
we're having to remember what that looks like.

Speaker 1 (00:55):
Yeah, and I know that some farmers are not only
in the White Kato king country, Taranak is very dry.
They're drying off, But I guess if you have to
dry off earlier, it lessens the blow awee but with
a ten dollar payout. Now you're in here not to
talk about dairy prices and the good news are coming
out of Fonterra at the moment. You're in here to
talk about the good news around global beef prices. I

(01:18):
just read the summary the media release around the Q
one beef quarterly report. There is no bad news in here.

Speaker 2 (01:25):
Jen, Not really, Jamie. It's good news. And this is
our global report from the Animal Protein team, so it
kind of looks at the full sort of year ahead,
but focusing for this one on quarterwin of course. And yeah,
it's all very good news, very similar messages to last
year in terms of that production piece. But overall global

(01:45):
beef production is going to be down in twenty twenty
five compared to twenty twenty four. And again it's that
sort of northern hemisphere versus southern hemisphere.

Speaker 1 (01:52):
Why aren't more countries ramping up their beef production with
these record prices?

Speaker 2 (01:56):
Yes, Jamie, that's a good question. And it's the chicken
and eggs now, isn't it? Because we're seeing pricing so
strong out of the US at the moment because of
the fact that they just don't have much domestic supply
in the beginning that heard rebuild, which essentially is going
to take you know, three or four years possibly, So
we do expect, you know, the demand for this lene
trimmings beef to continue right through that time, which is

(02:18):
pretty well reported. So good news for the pricing here
and certainly we're expecting that strong amount.

Speaker 1 (02:25):
To All right, let's address the elephant in the room,
the orange elephant in the room. Some people would say
that Trump Trump on tariffs.

Speaker 2 (02:32):
Yes, so Trump and every day we wake up, don't
we all and look at the news and see what's
going on. But I guess New Zealand's got a few
cards that we can play here. We do have something
that they need, so we've talked widely about this, right,
So beef is something we know they're going to be
needing for the next three or four years, and especially
that manufacturing lean trimmings beef. So that is a good

(02:54):
thing for us. However, tariffs are likely to be coming
in some way, shape or form. We think what that
looks like, we don't know yet, but good that we
have something that they need is a negotiating point. And also,
you know, we're not in the top ten of the
hit list, and we perhaps can play a role in

(03:14):
some of that geopolitical conversation with China and how we
can be perhaps helpful to the US and that's something.

Speaker 1 (03:24):
Yeah, and we may be able to coatail off Australia
if they can do a sweetheart deal with Trump. Jen Corkrand,
thank you very much for paying us a visit here
at Dunedin HQ. Safe travels back to Rabobank HQ and
the TROMP.

Speaker 2 (03:37):
Thanks Jmi. Great s