The Country 14/10/24: Phil Duncan talks to Rowena Duncum

WeatherWatch’s head weather analyst says there’s a much more settled and dry week for Southland despite a frost this morning, while the North Island could feel more “La Nina-like” by the end of the week. Plus, he’s keeping his eye on a possible subtropical storm near Tonga and gives an update on the aftermath of Hurricane Milton in the US.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Let's talk weather. We're Phil Duncan. How are things looking
and the weather world.

Speaker 2 (00:05):
Hello, Hello, good to hear you. It's looking a lot
more settled this week and it's almost like we've heard
the complaints departments heard from Southland and Westland and it's
time to kind of do something about it. So we've
got high pressure coming in this week, much drier week
on the way. Could still be a couple of showers
over the next twenty four hours. Generally speaking, it's drying out,

(00:27):
high pressures rolling in and just like we had this morning,
big frosts around parts of northern Southland, another chance of
that again on Wednesday morning, and those frost could spread
up into Canterbury and other inland parts of the South Island.
So a little bit of winter just coming back at
us for the South Island, while the North Island might
start to feel more larnin you like at the end
of the week thanks to an easterly that forms there.

Speaker 1 (00:49):
Well, I think I'm still getting throwbacks and PTSD with
al Nino and La Nina. I know we either get
one or the other, but it was just it's been
a long time since we've had to talk about.

Speaker 2 (00:59):
Them and It's funny because as soon as our Nino
started to come to an end this year, the mainstream
news outlets were just obsessed with Lardinia, not just in
New Zealand but across Australia and America, headline after headline
after headline. And here we are nearly at the eleventh month,
where ten and a halfway months through the year and
it's still not officially with us. But this coming week

(01:21):
is the first time this year that the tropics north
of US is looking more like Larnina. But in saying that,
we're also about to start the cyclone season on the
first of November. So is it just us going into
the wet season or is this a sign of Lardinia.
To me, I think we've got a lot lot longer
to go yet before we see Larnina really showing itself.
So a, this is going to create a storm just

(01:44):
south of Tonga, as you mentioned in the intro, and
that storm a week from now could be quite large
and just off the northeast of New Zealand. Hopefully that's
where it remains. There's no sign yet that it's going
to make a direct hit to us, but just the
placement of it just makes me a little bit uneasy.
We just keep an eye on it, but it should
to now be off shore. But a lot of you
are going to see it on the weather mats and

(02:05):
probably start asking us about it.

Speaker 1 (02:07):
I can just see a text coming in from Steve
and Tekuwadu who said a lot of farmers won't get
that image of me and they're underpants out of the
heads for a while. Apologies, folks, I know it's exactly
what you don't want to hear while you're having your
sandwich for lunch. But he agrees with me. Bathurst was
very boring. Did you watch Bathurst film?

Speaker 2 (02:24):
I did, and we did a weather forecast about it
last week, and as I said in my video today,
you know they've got big downpours forecast for bathurist today
and tomorrow. If only that was yesterday, because that track
was just so boring. It just went around and around
and around and around, and you know, it's kind of
like anyone who hates Bathurst. Yesterday was exactly what they
say it is. It's just cars going around and around

(02:45):
all day. Nothing happens. So I mean, I'm with you
on it being the most boring that I've ever watched.

Speaker 1 (02:51):
Oh, let's be honest. Our hearts go out to everyone
who's impacted when there is carnage. But as fans, we
just want to see the carnage and have it. Like you,
I really come down to it. So yeah, really absolutely, Hey,
just on the stories of tropical subtropical storms and things
like that, that one doesn't have a name, That one
by Tonga, right.

Speaker 2 (03:12):
No, no, And it's not a cyclone. It's not a
tropical cyclone. It's going to be forming south of Tong
It's going to be forming around fig but the actual
formy part of it, it'll be subtropical in nature, So
it's not a tropical cyclone. It's just a load that's
in a good position to sort of power and look
kind of impressive on the weather maps. But because it's
northeast of us, the chances of it coming to us

(03:33):
are a little reduced because, certainly in spring, that westerly
flow is much more dominant over our country, as we've
noticed for the last couple of weeks. But this is
the first break in those wendy westerly that we've had
now for a good couple of months. So I think
a lot of people are going to really notice how
much calmer this week is.

Speaker 1 (03:49):
Yeah, I think we'll all be very appreciative of that.
Just quickly, Milton in the US, what happened with that one?

Speaker 2 (03:56):
Where is that at Yes, it's out over the Atlantic
now passing Bermuda and falling apart, and it's no longer
a threat to land. But it was a significant storm.
And I've got to say I started where the watch
in two thousand and five when I was working at
Newstalk's hed B And one of the reasons I got
so much interest from the management at that time was

(04:16):
because Hurricane Katrina had just happened. That I was showing
people what it looks like when you're watching a storm
like that come in that I have not practiced a
hurricane as big as that since Katrina. It was remarkably
similar to Hurricane Katrina in a number of ways from
my point of view, and certainly watching it live go
across Florida a relief to see that it wasn't as

(04:37):
bad as it could have been, that it had all
the hallmarks of being something much worse, and it still
was pretty pretty serious.

Speaker 1 (04:43):
Yeah, indeed, I Well, thanks so much for the good
news for Southend on behalf of all the Southend farmers
who were do spirit for a wake of dry weather.
I mean up until now it's been a day, if that,
maybe two days at most.

Speaker 2 (04:57):
I've got the frosts, the frost tonight tomorrow night. A
bit of a surprise there, but minus twos and minus
sleeves coming back.

Speaker 1 (05:04):
Yes, I mull say. I got up this morning. We
went to go for a walk Dunedin, looked stunning pokemon
nose out the door and decided to head for the
treatmill instead. It was freezing. I've gotten soft in five
months in Auckland, Phil Duncan from where the watch dot
co dot ms D appreciate your time as always my pleasure.

Speaker 2 (05:22):
Have a good week.