September 14, 2025 • 4 mins
Farmer confidence in the broader agricultural economy has inched higher and is now at its second-highest reading at any stage across the last decade, the latest Rabobank Rural Confidence Survey has found. We learn more with Rabobank’s chief executive.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
New Zealand farmer confidence continues to soar fourth consecutive quarter
at lofty heights, so says the headline on the press
release about Rabobank's latest rural confidence survey. To tell us more,
Chief executive Todd charteris four in a row is really good.
We are the most confident as farmers, Todd, that we've
(00:22):
been since quarter two of twenty seventeen.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
Yeah, good man, Jamie. Look, it's great to see. And
as you say that, to have four consecutive quarters now
at really strong levels as great to see and a
long way it continue because it hasn't always been playing sailing,
but most of our farmers surveyed are certainly enjoying the
current commodity prices, which is really that main driver for confidence. Unsurprisingly,
(00:50):
so you're really good to see.
Speaker 1 (00:52):
If we look back in history, we've got to go
back to the twenty thirteen fourteen season for the last
time we had four consecutive quarters where confidence was at
such an inverted commace lofty heights. And we all remember
well twenty thirteen fourteen was the eight dollars forty milk
payout year, probably the highest historically in real terms, so
(01:14):
a lot of farmer confidence is based around milk price
because it's the biggest export.
Speaker 2 (01:19):
Commodity, absolutely and that's really what's driving this level here
as well, So no doubt about that. And as you say,
unsurprisingly and we're in another really good position in terms
of global milk prices and really is driving that driving
that confidence level for sure.
Speaker 1 (01:38):
Well, red meat's doing it. It's a bit as well,
lambs at record prices and beef, of all the commodities
in our export stable. My take on it, Todd, and
you know a lot more about this than me, would
be that beef is the most positive of the whole lot.
Speaker 2 (01:54):
Well, it's definitely looking very very strong and really led
by that US market which is really strong notwithstanding that
the tariffs on there, but certainly really strong global demand.
And yeah, that looks positive a few years out. So
that's I think certainly giving red meat farmers some confidence
(02:17):
to invest and continue to invest in their operations, which
is great to say.
Speaker 1 (02:21):
I know, when we're talking about tariffs that you surveyed
the farmers and the slightest rural confidence survey on the tariffs,
what do they have to say?
Speaker 2 (02:29):
Yeah, it was pretty mixed result. It was the first
time we asked them, and we essentially asked them on
a scale of one to ten their level of concern,
and I've got to say it was we saw both
ends of the scale and the actual average result came
out of five and a half. So that's pretty mixed.
But it is an area you know that I think
it's important that we keep an eye on. You know,
(02:51):
we are slightly disadvantage now compared to some of our
competitors after that increased of fifteen percent back in July,
So that's a but yeah, it was an interesting result.
Actually it was sort of split down the middle of
terms of farm and concern.
Speaker 1 (03:06):
How does this relate to investment intentions? There is a
bit of positivity out there. Are farmers going to reinvest
in their farm, I don't know by the neighboring farm
if it comes up for grabs.
Speaker 2 (03:17):
Yeah, Look, I think this is always a really important
measure because what this says to me is that sort
of longer term confidence that people have in their business,
and we're certainly seeing it driven by dairy farmers. Is
at around about half of our dairy farmers surveyed actually
said that their investment and tensions are going to increase
over the next twelve months, so that's positive and you know,
(03:40):
let's see what happens. I mean, I think there will
be a bit more few more properties on the market
as we go through the spring period and it'll be
interesting to see how that goes. But it's not just
about acquisition, it's just reinvestment into their farms, whether it
be upgrading infrastructure and things like that, some investment technology
(04:00):
as well, so that it's positive.
Speaker 1 (04:03):
To see great rural confidence survey. While I've got you
the unscripted question, where are interest rates going? Todd? What's
Rabobank saying about the OC bottoming out? We're currently at
three percent. A lot of people are saying we're going
to hit the bottom at two and a half. What
does Rabobank say.
Speaker 2 (04:21):
Yeah, well, we're picking maybe another couple of cuts. I
need day should catch up with being picked on on
it because it's bouncing around all over the place a
little bit, but certainly more downside pressure. There's no doubt
about that in the market would have priced and some
of those cuts already got on you.
Speaker 1 (04:37):
Hey Todd, Charter's chief executive of Rabobank, Thanks for your time,
as always on the country good on you
Speaker 2 (04:43):
Jamie Ketchup certain thanks
New Zealand farmer confidence continues to soar fourth consecutive quarter
at lofty heights, so says the headline on the press
release about Rabobank's latest rural confidence survey. To tell us more,
Chief executive Todd charteris four in a row is really good.
We are the most confident as farmers, Todd, that we've
(00:22):
been since quarter two of twenty seventeen.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
Yeah, good man, Jamie. Look, it's great to see. And
as you say that, to have four consecutive quarters now
at really strong levels as great to see and a
long way it continue because it hasn't always been playing sailing,
but most of our farmers surveyed are certainly enjoying the
current commodity prices, which is really that main driver for confidence. Unsurprisingly,
(00:50):
so you're really good to see.
Speaker 1 (00:52):
If we look back in history, we've got to go
back to the twenty thirteen fourteen season for the last
time we had four consecutive quarters where confidence was at
such an inverted commace lofty heights. And we all remember
well twenty thirteen fourteen was the eight dollars forty milk
payout year, probably the highest historically in real terms, so
(01:14):
a lot of farmer confidence is based around milk price
because it's the biggest export.
Speaker 2 (01:19):
Commodity, absolutely and that's really what's driving this level here
as well, So no doubt about that. And as you say,
unsurprisingly and we're in another really good position in terms
of global milk prices and really is driving that driving
that confidence level for sure.
Speaker 1 (01:38):
Well, red meat's doing it. It's a bit as well,
lambs at record prices and beef, of all the commodities
in our export stable. My take on it, Todd, and
you know a lot more about this than me, would
be that beef is the most positive of the whole lot.
Speaker 2 (01:54):
Well, it's definitely looking very very strong and really led
by that US market which is really strong notwithstanding that
the tariffs on there, but certainly really strong global demand.
And yeah, that looks positive a few years out. So
that's I think certainly giving red meat farmers some confidence
(02:17):
to invest and continue to invest in their operations, which
is great to say.
Speaker 1 (02:21):
I know, when we're talking about tariffs that you surveyed
the farmers and the slightest rural confidence survey on the tariffs,
what do they have to say?
Speaker 2 (02:29):
Yeah, it was pretty mixed result. It was the first
time we asked them, and we essentially asked them on
a scale of one to ten their level of concern,
and I've got to say it was we saw both
ends of the scale and the actual average result came
out of five and a half. So that's pretty mixed.
But it is an area you know that I think
it's important that we keep an eye on. You know,
(02:51):
we are slightly disadvantage now compared to some of our
competitors after that increased of fifteen percent back in July,
So that's a but yeah, it was an interesting result.
Actually it was sort of split down the middle of
terms of farm and concern.
Speaker 1 (03:06):
How does this relate to investment intentions? There is a
bit of positivity out there. Are farmers going to reinvest
in their farm, I don't know by the neighboring farm
if it comes up for grabs.
Speaker 2 (03:17):
Yeah, Look, I think this is always a really important
measure because what this says to me is that sort
of longer term confidence that people have in their business,
and we're certainly seeing it driven by dairy farmers. Is
at around about half of our dairy farmers surveyed actually
said that their investment and tensions are going to increase
over the next twelve months, so that's positive and you know,
(03:40):
let's see what happens. I mean, I think there will
be a bit more few more properties on the market
as we go through the spring period and it'll be
interesting to see how that goes. But it's not just
about acquisition, it's just reinvestment into their farms, whether it
be upgrading infrastructure and things like that, some investment technology
(04:00):
as well, so that it's positive.
Speaker 1 (04:03):
To see great rural confidence survey. While I've got you
the unscripted question, where are interest rates going? Todd? What's
Rabobank saying about the OC bottoming out? We're currently at
three percent. A lot of people are saying we're going
to hit the bottom at two and a half. What
does Rabobank say.
Speaker 2 (04:21):
Yeah, well, we're picking maybe another couple of cuts. I
need day should catch up with being picked on on
it because it's bouncing around all over the place a
little bit, but certainly more downside pressure. There's no doubt
about that in the market would have priced and some
of those cuts already got on you.
Speaker 1 (04:37):
Hey Todd, Charter's chief executive of Rabobank, Thanks for your time,
as always on the country good on you
Speaker 2 (04:43):
Jamie Ketchup certain thanks
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