The Country 18/07/24: Peter Newbold talks to Jamie Mackay

We take our monthly look at the state of the rural market with the GM of PGG Wrightson Real Estate.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Monthly here on the country we take a look at
the state of the rural real estate market. Our expert
in the field is the GM of PGG Rights and
real Estate, Peter Newbold. Tough out there, Peter, But we
are seeing some green shoots. Good afternoon, Yeah.

Speaker 2 (00:14):
Good afternoon, Jamie looked definitely. And you know people often
talk about it will happen in twenty five. I think
we're going to see it before then. Look, it's not
going to boom, but you know, when you look at
I guess some of the sentiment out there, some of
the messaging that's coming out from banks, politicians, and just
looking at the state of the market, I just think

(00:37):
we're going to see a little bit more activity on
the ground. Our vendors are being more realistic. There's buyers
out there now starting to look we've got a good
range of property. Yeah. I just think there's I think
it's going to be a little bit better than people
are talking, and subject to weather, things may start a

(00:58):
little bit earlier than spring, if you know what I mean.

Speaker 1 (01:01):
Having just chatted to Shane Jones, the Prince of the Provinces,
I wonder whether the forestry industry might get a bit
of a kickstart from what he's saying in terms of
balancing the books. When it comes to our emissions, he
just wants to plant more trees.

Speaker 2 (01:17):
Yeah. Look, yeah, that's an interesting one to comment on.
I think we need to be looking at other things
than trees at the moment. You know, we want our
sheep and beef farmers to make some money and we
want to see all those exports improve and the returns
we're getting. So I think that's where I'd be focusing things.
And that all comes back to, you know, inflation and

(01:39):
interest rates. So I think they are the two key
things that as a nation we should be focusing on.

Speaker 1 (01:44):
I kind of concur with you. I think when we
see a drop in the ocr An interest rates start
to come down, we're not going to see a property boom,
but we're just going to see more activity. And that's
been the problem, not only for residential but also for
rural property. There's just the volumes a low.

Speaker 2 (02:01):
Yeah. Look, it's as we all know, it's probably been
the worst in thirty years, but there's definitely signs out there.
And you know, once sentiment changes, then people feel more confident,
and I think that's what's happening. So look, it's not
going to boom, but there will be growth and I
think there'll be more opportunities out there, and I think
we'll see more sales, and definitely from a rural perspective,

(02:25):
I'm convinced that will take place in the spring.

Speaker 1 (02:28):
You often say Southland. I don't know why, but you
say Southland can be a bell weather for the rural
real estate market. Why do you say that?

Speaker 2 (02:36):
If you look back in history that often when Southland
starts to come out of let's say a downturn or
a slow market, that probably sets the scene for the
rest of the rest of New Zealand. And that's what's
happened in the past. And at the moment, you know,
we if you look at Southland coming into winter, they
had good, strong activity and if you look what's what's

(03:00):
in the pipeline for spring is looking good. So if
I go back and look what's happened in history, that
would tell me that things are on the move and
that will spread up the country. And I think that's
the other thing we've noticed is that if you get
into Heartland New Zealand, the sentiment there is better today

(03:20):
than what it was a month ago, So I think
there's good signals out there that it's going to be better.

Speaker 1 (03:25):
What is it like for the dairy industry at the moment?
Are you talking about sentiment? And my feeling would be
that the sentiment in the dairy industry is a bit
stronger than sheep and beef for instance, at the moment.

Speaker 2 (03:37):
Yeah, definitely. And if I speak to some of our
key people in the field, they think that dairy is
going to have a better year, and I think if
you look at what's happening in that space, that's correct. So, look,
she and beef will be better, but I think dairy is.
We're going to see a lot more activity in dairy
this year, which we haven't seen for probably two or

(03:58):
three years.

Speaker 1 (04:00):
You wear a couple of hats at PGG Rights and
you run the real estate division and for your sons,
you run the livestock division now as well. How are
your agents getting on out on the field there.

Speaker 2 (04:12):
Yeah, Look, it's really tough. You know, rural New Zealand
has been in a challenging space and you know, when
you're out there dealing with that every day, it's a
tough thing. So yeah, it's been tough for I guess
you know our farmer clients and also our agents, but
I think from a livestock perspective at the moment, I

(04:33):
think you're just starting to see some signs of recovery.
You know, cattle pricing looks good, there's a little bit
of light at the end of the tunnel in and
around sheep values, and then if you look at dairy
I know it's sort of been up and down, but
it's looking positive coming into the next year. So you'd
like to think that our farmers are going to be

(04:56):
better off in this coming year. That'd be my thoughts.

Speaker 1 (04:58):
Okay, Peter and Newbolt always good to catch up, and
I'll give you livestock team a big pat on the
back because they're involved with us at the ISC CARF
and Rural Scheme. Your company does a hell of a
lot in terms of providing services at no cost to
that organization and we really appreciate it. Any farmer listening
out there, I know times are a bit challenging at
the moment, but there's always someone worse off than yourself,

(05:20):
So think of the IC CARF and Rural Scheme and
donate if you can. Peter and Newbold, great to catch up.

Speaker 2 (05:26):
Yeah, Thanks Jamie. Thanks for that plug around the IC.
It's much appreciated.