August 19, 2025 • 10 mins
Two-part interview with Rabobank’s Singapore-based Global Strategist. Part One: "Trump the Peacemaker" and whether a truce in Russia and the Middle East will result in a sugar rush for the world economy. Part Two: "Trump the Disruptor" and how a trading nation like New Zealand can insulate itself against his tariffs.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Love chatting to this bloke on the country. His name
is Michael every Rabobanks, Singapore based global strategist. Michael. Let's
get into it as we record this interview. Is Trump
on the verge of an historic peace agreement between Russia
and Ukraine? Or is putin playing them like a fiddle
a lah Neville Chamberlain's peace in our time? After meeting
(00:24):
with Hitler? What do you reckon?
Speaker 2 (00:26):
Well, obviously everything is in flux, so you can't one
hundred percent say one or the other. But it does
appear to be much more the former than the latter.
But with terms and conditions, we have to see who's
going to be doing what and what Trump is effectively
going to do here is say, look, we're going to
(00:49):
provide a logistical backdrop to support what Europe is now
going to pay for, and Europe is going to deliver
on the ground of Europe, which loves to talk big
about how the world should be and how everyone should
do everything if they are capable now of actually saying yes,
we will put our own boys and girls on the ground,
(01:10):
boots on the ground, we will rearm with with weapons
we buy from America, which has been part of Trump's
plan all along, and with that we will guarantee the
eighty percent of Ukraine that's left. Provided that Kiv signs
up to this deal, then we at least have stability
for a while, even if in no way do we
(01:32):
actually have friendship and peace between between Russia and Ukraine.
It will be better than what we have now, certainly
if everyone signs up to what needs to be done.
Speaker 1 (01:43):
Yeah, but basically Ukraine is going to have to swallow
a dead ride.
Speaker 2 (01:47):
Well, Ukraine, it would appear, and quite logically, very sadly,
by the way, I don't say there was only happens whatsoever,
is going to have to accept that what Russia has taken,
it is incapable of forcing it to give back. And
for those you know listening who might think, well, you know,
first of all, the US or you know, your Europe
or Europe's got nothing to bring to the table militarily
(02:08):
at the moment. But the US should be flooding Ukraine
with arms to try and push back. You'd have to
end up putting boots on the ground. And Russia is
much closer to Ukraine, and it has what we call
escalatory dominance. Russia will always be prepared to say, well,
we're going to go further and harder than you because
this matters to us more than it does to you,
and America is simply not going to do that. So
(02:29):
then you're only other alternative is from America and Europe
together to say we will sanction the hell out of
everybody who does business with Russia to break their economy.
They could have done that from day one. From day one,
they could have done that, but you know who that
means sanctioning just about everyone, including some European countries who
buy Russian energy. By the way, no one's prepared to
actually do that. So if they're not going to put
(02:50):
up and they're not, this is probably the most realistic,
best option that's left on the table. But yes, Ukraine
will regrettably because if this wasn't done years ago, and
it should have been, and by Europe, Ukraine will probably
have to see twenty percent of its land.
Speaker 1 (03:08):
If we can get pace or even a meaningful ceasefire
and both Russia and the Middle East, what effect does
that have on the world economy? Are we going to
have a bit of a sugar rush as a result.
Speaker 2 (03:21):
I wouldn't say sugar, I'd say a gunpowder rush, because
everyone will continue arming, particularly in Europe on the Ukraine side,
the European side, and on the Russian side, to ensure
they're in the best position if one or the other
stumbles or just decides that they can't keep up the pace.
So we will definitely see an economic boom from things
(03:44):
that go boom, But of course you have to trade
off between guns and butter unless you want inflation to
go through the roof. And that's going to mean some
real wrenching changes that people in Europe, in particularly just
frankly aren't prepared for yet. I think it will have
to happen, but it's going to be quite the political, economic,
and psychological shock for them when they see the coming.
And in the Middle East, well, look, it's always always
(04:07):
on a nice edge there. I think certain areas can
certainly see positive change relative to where we are now.
I mean, it wouldn't be hard, given how bad things
are there, but it will still be alongside what's happening
in Europe, part of a global reset, which is still
at the end of the day, coming down to the
US versus China, and so I don't think there's any
(04:28):
war looming on that front to be abundantly clear. But
any economic boom that we get is going to be
constrained by the fact that you're likely to see people
saying whose side are you on as we start drawing
lines on the map, and we're already seeing a lot
of that this year.
Speaker 1 (04:42):
As you know, Michael Every with us he is Rabobanks
Singapore based global strategist. We're going to take a break
and part two of this interview we're going to continue
the Trump saying. We're going to talk about as tariffs
and how New Zealand as a trading nation can insulate
themselves against them. The country continues with Michael Every, Singapore
(05:10):
based global strategist for Rabobank. We've talked about Donald Trump
the peacemaker. What about Donald Trump the disruptor with a tariffs?
Michael Every, How does a country like New Zealand insulate
itself as best it can against the Trump tariffs when,
for instance, our friends across the Tasman Australia have got
(05:31):
a lower terror fright than us.
Speaker 2 (05:34):
Yes, well that doesn't help, does it? I mean five
percent isn't a game changing, It's just necessarily Although margins
are tight in some areas of industry, and you need
to watch them carefully. You have to accept that the
tariffs and that disruption come alongside the peace deals. They
are all part of the same package. And I have
been saying that, you know, in earlier chats we've had,
(05:56):
and that the best thing to do is to try
and get on the phone to the White House with
AUSTRALI would have been even better to strengthen your arm
and to actually just say, look, we understand what you're
trying to do in terms of reordering the international system.
We're not going to fight you. We want to work
with you.
Speaker 1 (06:10):
Now.
Speaker 2 (06:10):
To an extent, you could say you've not got the
worst of deals. You know, your tariff isn't wonderful, but
it's not as high as some others have got. Look
at poor old Switzerland or India for example at the moment,
or Brazil. But you have to just recognize that in
the same way that the US has been able to
maybe achieve some kind of piece of sorts in Ukraine
(06:30):
by literally telling Europe you are going to rearm and
enforce this, We're not, you know, We're only going to
be there in the background by sheer, you know, will
and power they've been able to do that. The US
is going to dictate to everyone how global trade works
going forward. So either you don't deal with the US
at all, and good luck to you on that, because
no one's already had a lot of luck finding anyone
else as a market to replace everything they buy. You know,
(06:54):
or are you are you sell more purely domestically, and
again good luck with that for everybody. Or you listen
to what they want and you try and work with
them as much as possible.
Speaker 1 (07:02):
You mentioned India. We're trying at the moment to get
a free trade agreement with India and get competitive with
their Australian cousins across the Tasman. How much potential does
India present for a country like New Zealand. They're going
to be the world's third biggest economy by twenty thirty.
They are currently the world's fastest growing economy. Surely we
(07:26):
need some eggs in the Indian basket.
Speaker 2 (07:28):
Well yeah, And unfortunately, again, the time to have been
doing this would have been years ago when I was
telling people that's exactly what should have been done. But
everyone in New Zealand and elsewhere was keeping all their
eggs in another basket which I won't name, and right
now at the moment, that still on paper, makes a
lot of sense, except for the fact that we're on
a nice edge because geopolitically, the US and India are
(07:49):
really not in a good place whatsoever. In fact, the
headline this morning is I'm speaking to you, is that
India is saying we want to do everything we can
to kiss up to China again. Now, I don't know
how sustainable that will be. I don't know if they
really mean it or if it's just, you know, a
play to try and get America's attention again. But we're
India to go that route at a time when I
am stressing the world is going to be starting to
(08:09):
buifurcate into whose side are you on kind of deals,
and New Zealand says, well, we want to be in
that camp. Well, you're not going to get on well
with America and there are going to be consequences for that.
So I'm not saying that will happen. I'm just saying that, Yeah,
ten years ago would have been a much better time
to be doing what you just floated.
Speaker 1 (08:25):
Hindsight, it's a wonderful thing. Look, we're enjoying record commodity
prices for the likes of dairy, ki we fruit, red
meat at the moment. Can we stay at these elevated levels.
Speaker 2 (08:37):
Well, I don't want to talk specifics to any of
those sectors, as I'm sure everyone knows round our bank
has got experts in all of them and that doesn't
include me. But what I can certainly say is that
the underlying inflation and that's what it is, because when
prices go up, that's called inflation. When we're the seller,
we don't consider it inflation. We consider it to be
something good. When we're the buyer, it's inflation. But that's
(08:58):
the way, that's the way. Statistics, Well, we don't see
any clear sign that that's completely sorted out on every front.
And you've just alluded to that in terms of what
you know, what grows and produces in New Zealand are seeing.
And yet we are seeing central banks from your own
in New Zealand to the to the Federal Reserve up
in the US talking you know, or being pushed bit
(09:21):
by bit into cutting interest rates and so what do
you think that's going to mean?
Speaker 1 (09:25):
Can I ask you about a dirty word and economics stagflation.
Speaker 2 (09:31):
Stagflation, Yes, well that's something that lots of people pooh
poohed years ago and said you can't have it, and
it's exactly what we do have to a certain extent.
In the Structurally, our economies are not performing anywhere near
as well as they used to with one or two
exceptions or one or two sectors, you know, you could say,
you know, breaking it down a bit, and yet we
(09:52):
do have a far stickier level of inflation. It's certainly
in pockets like services than anyone presumed we were going
to have pre COVID. I mean, you can have a
really limping along. You know, we're doing a hard kind
of economy which many people are experiencing, and you still
get really sticky upward movement in prices where it just
doesn't come down again. That is stagflation light. I think
(10:16):
that would be the easiest way to describe it. And
of course it doesn't feel so lightly. You haven't got
much money in your pocket. But what do you do?
What do you do about that? And I can tell you,
having spoken to the great and the good around the world,
if they haven't got a clue.
Speaker 1 (10:27):
Michael every Rabobanks, Singapore based Global Strategist. Thanks, as always
for your time, really appreciative. I'll catch you back hopefully
in the next month. The two come rain, hail, snow,
or Donald Trump getting a Nobel Peace Prize. See ya.
Love chatting to this bloke on the country. His name
is Michael every Rabobanks, Singapore based global strategist. Michael. Let's
get into it as we record this interview. Is Trump
on the verge of an historic peace agreement between Russia
and Ukraine? Or is putin playing them like a fiddle
a lah Neville Chamberlain's peace in our time? After meeting
(00:24):
with Hitler? What do you reckon?
Speaker 2 (00:26):
Well, obviously everything is in flux, so you can't one
hundred percent say one or the other. But it does
appear to be much more the former than the latter.
But with terms and conditions, we have to see who's
going to be doing what and what Trump is effectively
going to do here is say, look, we're going to
(00:49):
provide a logistical backdrop to support what Europe is now
going to pay for, and Europe is going to deliver
on the ground of Europe, which loves to talk big
about how the world should be and how everyone should
do everything if they are capable now of actually saying yes,
we will put our own boys and girls on the ground,
(01:10):
boots on the ground, we will rearm with with weapons
we buy from America, which has been part of Trump's
plan all along, and with that we will guarantee the
eighty percent of Ukraine that's left. Provided that Kiv signs
up to this deal, then we at least have stability
for a while, even if in no way do we
(01:32):
actually have friendship and peace between between Russia and Ukraine.
It will be better than what we have now, certainly
if everyone signs up to what needs to be done.
Speaker 1 (01:43):
Yeah, but basically Ukraine is going to have to swallow
a dead ride.
Speaker 2 (01:47):
Well, Ukraine, it would appear, and quite logically, very sadly,
by the way, I don't say there was only happens whatsoever,
is going to have to accept that what Russia has taken,
it is incapable of forcing it to give back. And
for those you know listening who might think, well, you know,
first of all, the US or you know, your Europe
or Europe's got nothing to bring to the table militarily
(02:08):
at the moment. But the US should be flooding Ukraine
with arms to try and push back. You'd have to
end up putting boots on the ground. And Russia is
much closer to Ukraine, and it has what we call
escalatory dominance. Russia will always be prepared to say, well,
we're going to go further and harder than you because
this matters to us more than it does to you,
and America is simply not going to do that. So
(02:29):
then you're only other alternative is from America and Europe
together to say we will sanction the hell out of
everybody who does business with Russia to break their economy.
They could have done that from day one. From day one,
they could have done that, but you know who that
means sanctioning just about everyone, including some European countries who
buy Russian energy. By the way, no one's prepared to
actually do that. So if they're not going to put
(02:50):
up and they're not, this is probably the most realistic,
best option that's left on the table. But yes, Ukraine
will regrettably because if this wasn't done years ago, and
it should have been, and by Europe, Ukraine will probably
have to see twenty percent of its land.
Speaker 1 (03:08):
If we can get pace or even a meaningful ceasefire
and both Russia and the Middle East, what effect does
that have on the world economy? Are we going to
have a bit of a sugar rush as a result.
Speaker 2 (03:21):
I wouldn't say sugar, I'd say a gunpowder rush, because
everyone will continue arming, particularly in Europe on the Ukraine side,
the European side, and on the Russian side, to ensure
they're in the best position if one or the other
stumbles or just decides that they can't keep up the pace.
So we will definitely see an economic boom from things
(03:44):
that go boom, But of course you have to trade
off between guns and butter unless you want inflation to
go through the roof. And that's going to mean some
real wrenching changes that people in Europe, in particularly just
frankly aren't prepared for yet. I think it will have
to happen, but it's going to be quite the political, economic,
and psychological shock for them when they see the coming.
And in the Middle East, well, look, it's always always
(04:07):
on a nice edge there. I think certain areas can
certainly see positive change relative to where we are now.
I mean, it wouldn't be hard, given how bad things
are there, but it will still be alongside what's happening
in Europe, part of a global reset, which is still
at the end of the day, coming down to the
US versus China, and so I don't think there's any
(04:28):
war looming on that front to be abundantly clear. But
any economic boom that we get is going to be
constrained by the fact that you're likely to see people
saying whose side are you on as we start drawing
lines on the map, and we're already seeing a lot
of that this year.
Speaker 1 (04:42):
As you know, Michael Every with us he is Rabobanks
Singapore based global strategist. We're going to take a break
and part two of this interview we're going to continue
the Trump saying. We're going to talk about as tariffs
and how New Zealand as a trading nation can insulate
themselves against them. The country continues with Michael Every, Singapore
(05:10):
based global strategist for Rabobank. We've talked about Donald Trump
the peacemaker. What about Donald Trump the disruptor with a tariffs?
Michael Every, How does a country like New Zealand insulate
itself as best it can against the Trump tariffs when,
for instance, our friends across the Tasman Australia have got
(05:31):
a lower terror fright than us.
Speaker 2 (05:34):
Yes, well that doesn't help, does it? I mean five
percent isn't a game changing, It's just necessarily Although margins
are tight in some areas of industry, and you need
to watch them carefully. You have to accept that the
tariffs and that disruption come alongside the peace deals. They
are all part of the same package. And I have
been saying that, you know, in earlier chats we've had,
(05:56):
and that the best thing to do is to try
and get on the phone to the White House with
AUSTRALI would have been even better to strengthen your arm
and to actually just say, look, we understand what you're
trying to do in terms of reordering the international system.
We're not going to fight you. We want to work
with you.
Speaker 1 (06:10):
Now.
Speaker 2 (06:10):
To an extent, you could say you've not got the
worst of deals. You know, your tariff isn't wonderful, but
it's not as high as some others have got. Look
at poor old Switzerland or India for example at the moment,
or Brazil. But you have to just recognize that in
the same way that the US has been able to
maybe achieve some kind of piece of sorts in Ukraine
(06:30):
by literally telling Europe you are going to rearm and
enforce this, We're not, you know, We're only going to
be there in the background by sheer, you know, will
and power they've been able to do that. The US
is going to dictate to everyone how global trade works
going forward. So either you don't deal with the US
at all, and good luck to you on that, because
no one's already had a lot of luck finding anyone
else as a market to replace everything they buy. You know,
(06:54):
or are you are you sell more purely domestically, and
again good luck with that for everybody. Or you listen
to what they want and you try and work with
them as much as possible.
Speaker 1 (07:02):
You mentioned India. We're trying at the moment to get
a free trade agreement with India and get competitive with
their Australian cousins across the Tasman. How much potential does
India present for a country like New Zealand. They're going
to be the world's third biggest economy by twenty thirty.
They are currently the world's fastest growing economy. Surely we
(07:26):
need some eggs in the Indian basket.
Speaker 2 (07:28):
Well yeah, And unfortunately, again, the time to have been
doing this would have been years ago when I was
telling people that's exactly what should have been done. But
everyone in New Zealand and elsewhere was keeping all their
eggs in another basket which I won't name, and right
now at the moment, that still on paper, makes a
lot of sense, except for the fact that we're on
a nice edge because geopolitically, the US and India are
(07:49):
really not in a good place whatsoever. In fact, the
headline this morning is I'm speaking to you, is that
India is saying we want to do everything we can
to kiss up to China again. Now, I don't know
how sustainable that will be. I don't know if they
really mean it or if it's just, you know, a
play to try and get America's attention again. But we're
India to go that route at a time when I
am stressing the world is going to be starting to
(08:09):
buifurcate into whose side are you on kind of deals,
and New Zealand says, well, we want to be in
that camp. Well, you're not going to get on well
with America and there are going to be consequences for that.
So I'm not saying that will happen. I'm just saying that, Yeah,
ten years ago would have been a much better time
to be doing what you just floated.
Speaker 1 (08:25):
Hindsight, it's a wonderful thing. Look, we're enjoying record commodity
prices for the likes of dairy, ki we fruit, red
meat at the moment. Can we stay at these elevated levels.
Speaker 2 (08:37):
Well, I don't want to talk specifics to any of
those sectors, as I'm sure everyone knows round our bank
has got experts in all of them and that doesn't
include me. But what I can certainly say is that
the underlying inflation and that's what it is, because when
prices go up, that's called inflation. When we're the seller,
we don't consider it inflation. We consider it to be
something good. When we're the buyer, it's inflation. But that's
(08:58):
the way, that's the way. Statistics, Well, we don't see
any clear sign that that's completely sorted out on every front.
And you've just alluded to that in terms of what
you know, what grows and produces in New Zealand are seeing.
And yet we are seeing central banks from your own
in New Zealand to the to the Federal Reserve up
in the US talking you know, or being pushed bit
(09:21):
by bit into cutting interest rates and so what do
you think that's going to mean?
Speaker 1 (09:25):
Can I ask you about a dirty word and economics stagflation.
Speaker 2 (09:31):
Stagflation, Yes, well that's something that lots of people pooh
poohed years ago and said you can't have it, and
it's exactly what we do have to a certain extent.
In the Structurally, our economies are not performing anywhere near
as well as they used to with one or two
exceptions or one or two sectors, you know, you could say,
you know, breaking it down a bit, and yet we
(09:52):
do have a far stickier level of inflation. It's certainly
in pockets like services than anyone presumed we were going
to have pre COVID. I mean, you can have a
really limping along. You know, we're doing a hard kind
of economy which many people are experiencing, and you still
get really sticky upward movement in prices where it just
doesn't come down again. That is stagflation light. I think
(10:16):
that would be the easiest way to describe it. And
of course it doesn't feel so lightly. You haven't got
much money in your pocket. But what do you do?
What do you do about that? And I can tell you,
having spoken to the great and the good around the world,
if they haven't got a clue.
Speaker 1 (10:27):
Michael every Rabobanks, Singapore based Global Strategist. Thanks, as always
for your time, really appreciative. I'll catch you back hopefully
in the next month. The two come rain, hail, snow,
or Donald Trump getting a Nobel Peace Prize. See ya.
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