June 20, 2024 • 6 mins
The General Manager of PGG Wrightson Real Estate takes his monthly look at the state of the rural market.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
It was great to catch up with our next guest
Field Days, Peter Newbohl, the GM of PGG Rights in
real estate, we take our monthly look at the market,
and Peter, just before we do, I want to patch
you on the back yet again, you and Steven Geren
and the team from PGG Rights and for your ongoing
support of the IHC CARF and Rural Scheme. It's a
(00:20):
cause near and there to both of our hearts. Good afternoon, Yeah, good.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
Afternoon, Jamie. Yeah, look at us. It's a wonderful organization
and you know we've been dealing with it for or
not dealing but involved with it for forty years, and
you know our teams love getting involved. And it's one
of those areas that you know, all New Zealanders are
involved in and we need to look after them and
anything we can do in that space, we do it.
Speaker 1 (00:46):
Oh you're too mitus. Forty two years, PGG Rights and
has been supporting it. We've raised forty two million and
I know your stock agents do a hell of a
lot of over and above work, so well done to
your team. I'm not talking about your livestock division today.
I want to talk about your real estate division. You're
a busy man. You're running them both year on year.
The rural markets back over thirty percent. Are vendors being realistic.
Speaker 2 (01:13):
Look, I think there's a little bit of a movement
where some of them are starting to realize that yesterday's
prices aren't aren't relevant anymore, and if we want to
get out of the trough we're in at the moment,
then you know, people need to think about where their
values sit. So, as I said, there's some movement, but
there will need to be a lot more. I believe
within some of the sectors. If you're going to get
(01:36):
or you're going to bring those buyers to the table,
And I think that's probably one of the things that's
holding up rural property sales at the moment.
Speaker 1 (01:44):
The stickiest sector, without any doubt is sheep and beef
at the moment, particularly the sheep side of the equation.
How are you getting on moving some of those properties?
Speaker 2 (01:54):
Well, to be brutally honest, it's been really tough, and
you know it hasn't helped, you know, with past some
of the things that have stimulated that area and around forestry.
We're just starting to see some signs where people are
meeting the market, but unless they do, they won't sell them.
One of the other big challenges in that sector at
the moment is, you know, is that you know their
(02:17):
farm gate prices, especially with sheep and their expenditure has
put a lot of pressure on their profits, so that
doesn't help as well. And to be worthy to us,
we need an interest rate change there.
Speaker 1 (02:29):
Well, I wish you'd tell that to Adrian. Oh, that's
what I reckon. Yes, we're going to get on top
of inflation, but we're going to have the we're going
to screw the economy before then. But I'm banging on
about that all the time. I will move on. So
no surprise that sheep and beef's a bit sticky to
use that phrase. The dairy thing, I'll go to that
and then horticulture. So the dairy thing. You know, there's
(02:52):
more optimism there. We know that from the Rabobank Farmer
Confidence Survey.
Speaker 2 (02:58):
Yeah. Look, definitely there is more confidence there. And you know,
if you look at some of the projections that are
out there, it doesn't look too bad. What I do
know is some of their I guess costs running costs
are up there. But I think the signs look really
positive there. We've got a bit of interest in that
yuess when it comes to listing those we really need
to get through those winter months and they need to
(03:20):
get through their carving, and then I think we will
see some more activity there. It's fair to say that,
like the sheep and beef sector, there has been some
pressure on values and some have come off a little bit.
Not as much as the sheep and beef, but I
think we will see some momentum because I do believe,
and I think you know, I've discussed it before. You know,
(03:42):
Dearie has a good future, no.
Speaker 1 (03:44):
Doubt about that. I reckon sheep eventually lands such a
good product, it's got to have a good future. I
do worry about wool, but there are a lot of
smart people trying to do something about that. Are we
going to see a bit of a return to the
boom days for say, the key we fruit industry record
crop the share record returns are people or a people
(04:05):
once spit and twice shy.
Speaker 2 (04:07):
I don't think we'll see a boom, but I think
it will come will come back. At this point in time,
we haven't seen a lot of movement in and around
appraisals or listenings for the coming season. But I think
that will come. And you know, if you do a
bit of research and look there, look around, all the
pricing looks solid moving forward. As I said, you said
(04:30):
that that good, good harvests and the like. So yeah, look,
I think it'll come right. But like all these things,
you actually don't want it to boom. We just want
steady growth. I think that's a better way to put it.
Speaker 1 (04:40):
Lifestyle blocks they boomed during COVID. Everyone decided they want
to get out of the city and get a bit
of space around them. And you can't blame them for that,
but they've called their jets orbit.
Speaker 2 (04:51):
Yeah, look, that's not as bad as far as rural.
It's probably back about fifteen percent, and that's a huge market.
You know, on the heyday it was around nine billion.
So we're just seeing some signs there. But lifestyle will
probably only really move again once those metropolitan areas start
to move forward, and I guess we're all hoping that
(05:12):
will take place as we come into the spring. But
you know, the lifestyle sector has been hit worldly hard
over the last twelve to eighteen months.
Speaker 1 (05:19):
Peter and Newbold GM of PGG Rights in real estate.
You live in the beautiful Wochetapoo Basin. When am I
going to get my bargain basement Queenstown house.
Speaker 2 (05:32):
I don't think you will, Jamie, can be really honest.
It's a sort of its own little microclimate here, and
you know there's demand not only in New Zealand but
from Australia and the like to come and reside here.
So look, I think values of flatten, but I don't
think you are going to see a lot of downward
(05:52):
pressure there. I think it's just the nature of the
environment here and people want to live here, so I
think the values will remain solid over time.
Speaker 1 (06:01):
Yeah, the best time to buy was yesterday, Peter and
Newbold to you and Stephen Geron and all the team
at PGG Rights, and thanks once again for your ongoing
support of the IHC CARF and Rural scheme. Remember, farmers,
if one of those canvasses drive up your drive over
the next month or so, be as generous as you
can see you Peter.
Speaker 2 (06:20):
Yeah, thanks Jamie.
Speaker 1 (06:21):
Go the chiefs, Yeah, absolutely, go the Chiefs.
It was great to catch up with our next guest
Field Days, Peter Newbohl, the GM of PGG Rights in
real estate, we take our monthly look at the market,
and Peter, just before we do, I want to patch
you on the back yet again, you and Steven Geren
and the team from PGG Rights and for your ongoing
support of the IHC CARF and Rural Scheme. It's a
(00:20):
cause near and there to both of our hearts. Good afternoon, Yeah, good.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
Afternoon, Jamie. Yeah, look at us. It's a wonderful organization
and you know we've been dealing with it for or
not dealing but involved with it for forty years, and
you know our teams love getting involved. And it's one
of those areas that you know, all New Zealanders are
involved in and we need to look after them and
anything we can do in that space, we do it.
Speaker 1 (00:46):
Oh you're too mitus. Forty two years, PGG Rights and
has been supporting it. We've raised forty two million and
I know your stock agents do a hell of a
lot of over and above work, so well done to
your team. I'm not talking about your livestock division today.
I want to talk about your real estate division. You're
a busy man. You're running them both year on year.
The rural markets back over thirty percent. Are vendors being realistic.
Speaker 2 (01:13):
Look, I think there's a little bit of a movement
where some of them are starting to realize that yesterday's
prices aren't aren't relevant anymore, and if we want to
get out of the trough we're in at the moment,
then you know, people need to think about where their
values sit. So, as I said, there's some movement, but
there will need to be a lot more. I believe
within some of the sectors. If you're going to get
(01:36):
or you're going to bring those buyers to the table,
And I think that's probably one of the things that's
holding up rural property sales at the moment.
Speaker 1 (01:44):
The stickiest sector, without any doubt is sheep and beef
at the moment, particularly the sheep side of the equation.
How are you getting on moving some of those properties?
Speaker 2 (01:54):
Well, to be brutally honest, it's been really tough, and
you know it hasn't helped, you know, with past some
of the things that have stimulated that area and around forestry.
We're just starting to see some signs where people are
meeting the market, but unless they do, they won't sell them.
One of the other big challenges in that sector at
the moment is, you know, is that you know their
(02:17):
farm gate prices, especially with sheep and their expenditure has
put a lot of pressure on their profits, so that
doesn't help as well. And to be worthy to us,
we need an interest rate change there.
Speaker 1 (02:29):
Well, I wish you'd tell that to Adrian. Oh, that's
what I reckon. Yes, we're going to get on top
of inflation, but we're going to have the we're going
to screw the economy before then. But I'm banging on
about that all the time. I will move on. So
no surprise that sheep and beef's a bit sticky to
use that phrase. The dairy thing, I'll go to that
and then horticulture. So the dairy thing. You know, there's
(02:52):
more optimism there. We know that from the Rabobank Farmer
Confidence Survey.
Speaker 2 (02:58):
Yeah. Look, definitely there is more confidence there. And you know,
if you look at some of the projections that are
out there, it doesn't look too bad. What I do
know is some of their I guess costs running costs
are up there. But I think the signs look really
positive there. We've got a bit of interest in that
yuess when it comes to listing those we really need
to get through those winter months and they need to
(03:20):
get through their carving, and then I think we will
see some more activity there. It's fair to say that,
like the sheep and beef sector, there has been some
pressure on values and some have come off a little bit.
Not as much as the sheep and beef, but I
think we will see some momentum because I do believe,
and I think you know, I've discussed it before. You know,
(03:42):
Dearie has a good future, no.
Speaker 1 (03:44):
Doubt about that. I reckon sheep eventually lands such a
good product, it's got to have a good future. I
do worry about wool, but there are a lot of
smart people trying to do something about that. Are we
going to see a bit of a return to the
boom days for say, the key we fruit industry record
crop the share record returns are people or a people
(04:05):
once spit and twice shy.
Speaker 2 (04:07):
I don't think we'll see a boom, but I think
it will come will come back. At this point in time,
we haven't seen a lot of movement in and around
appraisals or listenings for the coming season. But I think
that will come. And you know, if you do a
bit of research and look there, look around, all the
pricing looks solid moving forward. As I said, you said
(04:30):
that that good, good harvests and the like. So yeah, look,
I think it'll come right. But like all these things,
you actually don't want it to boom. We just want
steady growth. I think that's a better way to put it.
Speaker 1 (04:40):
Lifestyle blocks they boomed during COVID. Everyone decided they want
to get out of the city and get a bit
of space around them. And you can't blame them for that,
but they've called their jets orbit.
Speaker 2 (04:51):
Yeah, look, that's not as bad as far as rural.
It's probably back about fifteen percent, and that's a huge market.
You know, on the heyday it was around nine billion.
So we're just seeing some signs there. But lifestyle will
probably only really move again once those metropolitan areas start
to move forward, and I guess we're all hoping that
(05:12):
will take place as we come into the spring. But
you know, the lifestyle sector has been hit worldly hard
over the last twelve to eighteen months.
Speaker 1 (05:19):
Peter and Newbold GM of PGG Rights in real estate.
You live in the beautiful Wochetapoo Basin. When am I
going to get my bargain basement Queenstown house.
Speaker 2 (05:32):
I don't think you will, Jamie, can be really honest.
It's a sort of its own little microclimate here, and
you know there's demand not only in New Zealand but
from Australia and the like to come and reside here.
So look, I think values of flatten, but I don't
think you are going to see a lot of downward
(05:52):
pressure there. I think it's just the nature of the
environment here and people want to live here, so I
think the values will remain solid over time.
Speaker 1 (06:01):
Yeah, the best time to buy was yesterday, Peter and
Newbold to you and Stephen Geron and all the team
at PGG Rights, and thanks once again for your ongoing
support of the IHC CARF and Rural scheme. Remember, farmers,
if one of those canvasses drive up your drive over
the next month or so, be as generous as you
can see you Peter.
Speaker 2 (06:20):
Yeah, thanks Jamie.
Speaker 1 (06:21):
Go the chiefs, Yeah, absolutely, go the Chiefs.
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