The Country 21/08/25: Peter Newbold talks to Jamie Mackay

The GM of PGG Wrightson Real Estate and Livestock takes his monthly look at the state of the markets. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Peter Newbolt's PGG right, since GM of real estate and
live stock. Normally we talk about how much your farm's
worth them. We're going to do that in the tech
But Peter, put on your live stock hat. What are
your agents in the field? Sounds like the CIA, doesn't it?
What are your agents in the field telling you? Have
they ever known the market to be as buoyant as
it is at the moment.

Speaker 2 (00:22):
If you look at last year, we had a fantastic
year and everything's lining up well this year. I think
the only challenge might be enough stock. But all the
guys are out there at the moment working on that.
But you know, I think if we have a reasonable spring,
things look really good. The markets look strong overseas. You know,

(00:43):
hopefully the alliance thing will be sorted, so, you know,
all things being equal, I think we're going to have
another very very strong season as long as we can
get enough stock for everyone.

Speaker 1 (00:54):
Yeah, that's the problem, isn't it enough enough live stock?
We're continuing to decline in our livestock numbers, and then
we've got the weather and strong wall to worry about.
But everything else is lining up pretty nicely. Is that
transferring into increased interests, say look for sheep and beef properties,
it has.

Speaker 2 (01:12):
To well, look, I think definitely. And you know, I
was just thinking the other day. If you think of
you know, interest rates, farmgate returns, you know, the sheet
and bee pricing, you know they're receiving it all flows
through to where I think we're going to see really
solid farm sales spring right the way through to Christmas.

(01:34):
And the other interesting thing is not that the big
months at the moment, but we've basically had steady sales
all the way through since since autumn, so you know,
things bowed really well. So I think, you know, it's
not going to boom, but I think we're going to
see really good activity over the next few months.

Speaker 1 (01:54):
Reserve Bank announcement yesterday and the rhetoric around it most
importantly has got a be a positive for future sales
in the coming season.

Speaker 2 (02:04):
Yeah, look, definitely. And I think that's the other thing.
You know what, real estate sales are reliant on sentiment,
and sentiment will improve after that announcement, which as we know,
is probably long overdue. And then as I said, you
add all those other bits into it, it's probably a
perfect time to purchase a property. And I think the
other thing too on the other side, is we are

(02:26):
seeing a number of people saying, look, the market's strong
at the moment, good time to sell. I know people
often they carry on one season too long, but it's
a good time to sell your property too.

Speaker 1 (02:36):
Well. I guess if you're in the market, for instance,
to sell your dairy farm, you're thinking I might hang
in for another season at ten bucks and cash in,
But then again you might pay the price at the
other end. We don't know. And I'm assuming again with
dairy coming off a ten dollar payout, I'm making that
assumption for twenty four to twenty five looking good for
ten dollars plus and twenty five twenty six. There's got

(02:59):
to be people looking at that.

Speaker 2 (03:02):
Oh, look definitely. And you know, as you know, you know,
markets will only hold for so long, and so we
are seeing not big numbers, but we are seeing people going, right,
I'm going to divest and do something else. And so
that is taking place because they look at it and
they go the market's markets strong now, So why wouldn't

(03:22):
I operate in these conditions?

Speaker 1 (03:25):
Okay? Peter Newbolt, Elephant in the room, Carbon farming, full
farm to forest conversions. Is that past tense now or
is it still happening.

Speaker 2 (03:35):
Oh, it's reduced considerably, so I don't see that as
a big threat moving forward. The only thing we are
going to see is over the next couple of years,
as those forestry transactions took place, we're still going to
see some stock numbers reduced, as as those properties you

(03:56):
know I put into it, put into trees. But I
think the peace has gone. I think we'll look back
in years to come and go, God, what happened there?
And hopefully it'll slow down and we can and we
won't lose any more good land that we need, the
sheep and beef and deryck hey.

Speaker 1 (04:14):
Just to finish on. You live in a beautiful part
of the country, Central Otago, Wocketapoo Basin. I was in
Queenstown last weekend. There was no snow on the hills.
Has Mother Nature remedied that?

Speaker 2 (04:25):
Look? No, really? And I was saying to someone the
other day, I don't think we've seen a real storm
this season, And you'd have to go back probably ten
or twelve years to see a decent snowfall down there.
So it's been, in my opinion, a mild winter We've
had some frosts, but there's nothing wrong with some good frosts.
But from a weather perspective, it's been a mild winter,

(04:46):
and I guess if I put my livestock had on.
Lextobe stays that way as we move into the next couple.

Speaker 1 (04:52):
Of months, absolutely August and September, as I say, the
most important farming months on the calendar. I reckon. Anyhow,
God go, Peter Newbold, thanks for your time.

Speaker 2 (05:02):
You have a good afternoon, Jamie. She is