July 21, 2025 • 5 mins
Rabobank’s senior analyst comments on record red meat prices and a better outlook for New Zealand avocado growers as global demand “smashes” past the $30 billion mark.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Jen Corkran is a Rabobank Research senior analyst. She's put
out a really interesting paper on the avocado industry and
industry that's had its fair share of troubles that would
be fair to say over the past couple of years,
but looks like it's coming right. But first I want
to talk about your main area of interest, Jen at Rabobank,
and that is a red meat which is going great
(00:20):
guns at the moment. Here's a question for you, a
starter for ten. Why aren't you at the red meat
sector conference in christ Church today?
Speaker 2 (00:28):
Hi, Jamie, I would love to be down there today.
Unfortunately I wasn't able to wrangle it, but I'll be
really interested to hear some of the feedback coming through because,
by gosh, compared to this time twelve years ago, there's
suddenly a lot more positivity out there, isn't there In
the outlook over the next season, it's actually looking really
(00:49):
good for red meat. So I think there'll be a
lot of positive conversations coming out of that conference today.
Speaker 1 (00:54):
Now we're going back twelve years or twelve months. I
reckon twelve months, mind you, it's a lot better than
it was twelve years ago too, As well.
Speaker 2 (01:01):
Gen, Yeah, it almost suddenly is and however costs a
ligher I'm sure than they were twelve years ago, that's sure.
Speaker 1 (01:08):
Well, absolutely, we've been through a period of rapid on
farm inflation, especially from the COVID era onwards, and it's
really taken the shine off what our record price is. Okay,
well let's start with sheep because the wall side of
the equations not great, but the lamb side has really
come right. And no one picked this gen twelve months ago.
Speaker 2 (01:30):
No one practiced Jomie, that's right. And you know, we
did a we report I think it came out in
August last year on you know, where where the sheep
met was that and where we thought it might be going.
And one of the things that we discussed in that
was that we expect there may be a swing back
to some of our traditional markets for lamb, especially which
is European Union in the UK, because what we saw
(01:51):
coming there was a decline in their own numbers domestically,
but a real steady demand especially in some cultural groups
and also more traditionally in the UK for sheet meet
in lamb roasts and the like, and that's what we're
seeing at the moment. We've seen you know, over the
last you know season, so the twenty four to twenty
five export season, we've seen a berg shift and the
(02:14):
volumes going to the United Kingdom and the European Union
and the value that we're getting for that, that everage
export value, and that has really driven up the farm
gate prices in terms of you know, that upside being
passed on to our producers, which is great news, and
we expect that to continue. We expect that demand into
this next season to continue.
Speaker 1 (02:33):
We're getting record prices for beef and it doesn't look
like stopping despite the terror off situation in the US.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
That's right, and the rebuilt of that herd in the
United States that's going to drive you know, their imports
for the next couple of three years at least is
really driving up those prices. So we're seeing record high
everage export values going into the United States for our beef,
and that's just having you know, record high fun cake
(03:03):
prices at the moment. And as you say, they're not
looking like that's slowing down and we are seeing just
just that big demand based on a lack of supply.
Speaker 1 (03:12):
Are we going to benefit from Trump lumping greater tariffs
on other countries compared to US, which obviously gives us
a competitive advantage, and I'm looking at the likes of
the South American countries.
Speaker 2 (03:23):
Yeah, so Brazil's been exporting a lot of beef into
the United States of the last three months in particular,
and these, you know, the volumes that they've been sending
up have surged higher than any volumes they've sent in
the same three months of any other year in rencient history.
So we don't really know what's going on there, but
(03:44):
you know, the threat of a perhaps fifty percent tariff
on top of the twenty six percent tariff that they've
already got would really put a hold to that Jamien.
That would actually be an advantage for New Zealand in
terms of the import price that they're paying not being
sort of held steady by the fact that they've got
this bit supply coming from Brazil. But we'll just have
to see how that plays out, because as we know,
with the tariffs, a lot of there's a lot of
(04:06):
uncertainty still going on there.
Speaker 1 (04:08):
Well, no one knows about the tariffs, including Donald Trump,
what's going to happen there? Hey, just quickly on the avocado,
I mentioned that you put out a press release late
last week. I like this one. The avocado production expected
to lift this global market smashes and inverted commas past
the thirty billion dollar mark, no doubt that is a
(04:28):
reference to the smashed avocado on toasts that you millennials
like to eat. Gems.
Speaker 2 (04:34):
Oh, how good are that? Jamie? And I was pretty
happy to help out with this report. This is the
Global Fresh Produce team that put out this one, and
it's the Global Avocado Report, so looking at global production basically.
But I was very happy to help with this because
avocados definitely tend to be one of my favorite side
interests outside of all things agriculture. But it was a
(04:55):
great report to help with. Look, basically, the long and
short of it is that global production of avocado a
strong and there's been a threefold growth in avocados being
produced globally over the last fifteen years. And you know
it's a popular fruit. But basically, you know, the market
value was close to thirty four billion New Zealand dollars
(05:15):
last year. And so this is driven by Latin America
and North America and Europe intinative consumption, but the actual
production of avocados is increasing, so we're going to need
lots of people to eat lots of avocados over the
next few years.
Speaker 1 (05:28):
Yeah, I'm keen for the avocado growers in New Zealand
to get a decent crack because A the pirate prices
have been pretty poor in recent times and B you
can't always be guaranteed a crop. It's it's a fraught
danger being an avocado grower anyway, lovely to catch up Gin.
Always appreciate your time here on the country.
Speaker 2 (05:45):
Thanks Jany, great chat.
Jen Corkran is a Rabobank Research senior analyst. She's put
out a really interesting paper on the avocado industry and
industry that's had its fair share of troubles that would
be fair to say over the past couple of years,
but looks like it's coming right. But first I want
to talk about your main area of interest, Jen at Rabobank,
and that is a red meat which is going great
(00:20):
guns at the moment. Here's a question for you, a
starter for ten. Why aren't you at the red meat
sector conference in christ Church today?
Speaker 2 (00:28):
Hi, Jamie, I would love to be down there today.
Unfortunately I wasn't able to wrangle it, but I'll be
really interested to hear some of the feedback coming through because,
by gosh, compared to this time twelve years ago, there's
suddenly a lot more positivity out there, isn't there In
the outlook over the next season, it's actually looking really
(00:49):
good for red meat. So I think there'll be a
lot of positive conversations coming out of that conference today.
Speaker 1 (00:54):
Now we're going back twelve years or twelve months. I
reckon twelve months, mind you, it's a lot better than
it was twelve years ago too, As well.
Speaker 2 (01:01):
Gen, Yeah, it almost suddenly is and however costs a
ligher I'm sure than they were twelve years ago, that's sure.
Speaker 1 (01:08):
Well, absolutely, we've been through a period of rapid on
farm inflation, especially from the COVID era onwards, and it's
really taken the shine off what our record price is. Okay,
well let's start with sheep because the wall side of
the equations not great, but the lamb side has really
come right. And no one picked this gen twelve months ago.
Speaker 2 (01:30):
No one practiced Jomie, that's right. And you know, we
did a we report I think it came out in
August last year on you know, where where the sheep
met was that and where we thought it might be going.
And one of the things that we discussed in that
was that we expect there may be a swing back
to some of our traditional markets for lamb, especially which
is European Union in the UK, because what we saw
(01:51):
coming there was a decline in their own numbers domestically,
but a real steady demand especially in some cultural groups
and also more traditionally in the UK for sheet meet
in lamb roasts and the like, and that's what we're
seeing at the moment. We've seen you know, over the
last you know season, so the twenty four to twenty
five export season, we've seen a berg shift and the
(02:14):
volumes going to the United Kingdom and the European Union
and the value that we're getting for that, that everage
export value, and that has really driven up the farm
gate prices in terms of you know, that upside being
passed on to our producers, which is great news, and
we expect that to continue. We expect that demand into
this next season to continue.
Speaker 1 (02:33):
We're getting record prices for beef and it doesn't look
like stopping despite the terror off situation in the US.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
That's right, and the rebuilt of that herd in the
United States that's going to drive you know, their imports
for the next couple of three years at least is
really driving up those prices. So we're seeing record high
everage export values going into the United States for our beef,
and that's just having you know, record high fun cake
(03:03):
prices at the moment. And as you say, they're not
looking like that's slowing down and we are seeing just
just that big demand based on a lack of supply.
Speaker 1 (03:12):
Are we going to benefit from Trump lumping greater tariffs
on other countries compared to US, which obviously gives us
a competitive advantage, and I'm looking at the likes of
the South American countries.
Speaker 2 (03:23):
Yeah, so Brazil's been exporting a lot of beef into
the United States of the last three months in particular,
and these, you know, the volumes that they've been sending
up have surged higher than any volumes they've sent in
the same three months of any other year in rencient history.
So we don't really know what's going on there, but
(03:44):
you know, the threat of a perhaps fifty percent tariff
on top of the twenty six percent tariff that they've
already got would really put a hold to that Jamien.
That would actually be an advantage for New Zealand in
terms of the import price that they're paying not being
sort of held steady by the fact that they've got
this bit supply coming from Brazil. But we'll just have
to see how that plays out, because as we know,
with the tariffs, a lot of there's a lot of
(04:06):
uncertainty still going on there.
Speaker 1 (04:08):
Well, no one knows about the tariffs, including Donald Trump,
what's going to happen there? Hey, just quickly on the avocado,
I mentioned that you put out a press release late
last week. I like this one. The avocado production expected
to lift this global market smashes and inverted commas past
the thirty billion dollar mark, no doubt that is a
(04:28):
reference to the smashed avocado on toasts that you millennials
like to eat. Gems.
Speaker 2 (04:34):
Oh, how good are that? Jamie? And I was pretty
happy to help out with this report. This is the
Global Fresh Produce team that put out this one, and
it's the Global Avocado Report, so looking at global production basically.
But I was very happy to help with this because
avocados definitely tend to be one of my favorite side
interests outside of all things agriculture. But it was a
(04:55):
great report to help with. Look, basically, the long and
short of it is that global production of avocado a
strong and there's been a threefold growth in avocados being
produced globally over the last fifteen years. And you know
it's a popular fruit. But basically, you know, the market
value was close to thirty four billion New Zealand dollars
(05:15):
last year. And so this is driven by Latin America
and North America and Europe intinative consumption, but the actual
production of avocados is increasing, so we're going to need
lots of people to eat lots of avocados over the
next few years.
Speaker 1 (05:28):
Yeah, I'm keen for the avocado growers in New Zealand
to get a decent crack because A the pirate prices
have been pretty poor in recent times and B you
can't always be guaranteed a crop. It's it's a fraught
danger being an avocado grower anyway, lovely to catch up Gin.
Always appreciate your time here on the country.
Speaker 2 (05:45):
Thanks Jany, great chat.
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
The Breakfast Club
The World's Most Dangerous Morning Show, The Breakfast Club, With DJ Envy, Jess Hilarious, And Charlamagne Tha God!