October 21, 2025 • 6 mins
Rabobank’s senior ag analyst has her say on the GDT Auction, the Alliance vote, and the very positive prospects for red meat prices, if not the state of the industry. She also has a fascinating Spice Girl fan girl revelation.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
She is a senior ag analyst with Rabobank and continuing
our Spy Girls musical theme today on the Country, Emma Higgins,
like Jane Smith, you're of an age where you were
probably a Spy Skirl fan growing up. Or am I
misreading you?
Speaker 2 (00:16):
No, you have nailed me completely with what may likes
were when it comes to the nineties pop bands, and
I did have the platform shoes Jamie I did.
Speaker 1 (00:27):
Jane hated the Spy Girls. She looked a bit like
Baby Spice with the blonde hair, but in real life,
Jane Smith's scary Spice. If we were to compare you
to one of the Spy Girls, who would it be? Well?
Speaker 2 (00:40):
I too, because I have quite dark here. So I
was always referred to as Posh Space.
Speaker 1 (00:47):
So you actually you actually had a nickname called Posh Spice.
Speaker 2 (00:50):
Well, no, but when we were doing our band performances,
obviously in front of all the school, Posh Space was
my character that I was trust into. And you know what,
after watching her on Netflix, I'll still take Posh Space.
Speaker 1 (01:05):
Let's get on to stuff that we need to talk about,
Emma Higgins, And of course we've already chatted to Miles
Hurrel about the GDT auction event. It was a bit
of a dog's breakfast overnight getting the results. But the
tone of it is it's down a couple of percent,
pretty much as expected with the futures market now, I
asked him, So I've got to ask you not only
(01:26):
about the spy skills, but is ten dollars under threat?
Speaker 2 (01:30):
I think we need to be prudent here, Jamie and
start thinking about what emmilk price looks like. That's a
little lower than that. I think tim Bucks is still
achievable this season, but our salespeople are going to have
to work pretty hard for that. And so in the
absence of, you know, putting a lot of trust and
hope into our sales team, it could be quite prudent
(01:51):
for farmers out there to think about what nine fifty
might look like or something a little bit less than ten.
I'm just given that the milk rate the market right
now has too much milk, and that's what's reflected in
the GDT outcomes that we've seen of the last three whiles.
And when you think about it, we've just had our
latest results come through for September. When it comes to
(02:12):
milk production, we've just seen a record volume of milk
being produced for the month of September, and that's a
trend that we've actually been playing out since about May
this year. So there's a plenty of milk coming from
this part of the world. That's the same out of
the United States as well, similar to with Europe, and
buyers are feeling pretty comfortable that they've got plenty of choice.
Speaker 1 (02:36):
Yeah, Miles Sarrel said, they're smelling a bit of blood
in the water and thereafter a good deal. Interestingly, talking
to farmer Tom Martin, my UK correspondent yesterday, British milk
exports have lifted by twenty percent. So let's move on
from dairy. I want you to put on your red
meat hat. What commentary have you got around that Alliance vote?
Speaker 2 (02:57):
Well, it was a very strong outcome, wasn't it, Jamie.
And look, I know that you've traversed a lot of
this over the last few days and certainly in the
weeks leading up to it, but certainly our farmers right
now are deciding the fate of cooperatives in one sense
or another, whether it was the Alliance vote that we
just saw come through yesterday, or whether it's the Fonterra
(03:18):
vote and the outcome of which will be announced at
the end of this month. There are quite different circumstances
obviously between the two, but you know, it is a
watershed moment. Alliance was the last one hundred percent from
owned red meat co operatives and they clearly have voted
against this model in favor of waters effectively foreign ownership,
(03:39):
whereas Dawn meets owning sixty five percent steak in Alliance group.
Assuming it all goes through, all the eyes are dotted,
teeth crossed, and the High Court is also an agreement
as well. So look at is really a momentous time
I think for a rid meat space. And we've talked
about it before, Jamie. You know, cooperatives do have a
(04:00):
few challenges when it comes to accessing capital to really
maximize the market opportunities. We've seen it before historically, and
Alliance is no different right to other clocks have faced
their challenges. What we've seen in terumber. This vote is
a vote for a fast capital injection, so external capital
(04:22):
coming in that will theoretically provide opportunity for the group
to progress and achieve whatever growth strategies that they have.
The risk is Jamie, let me see a dilution or
a loss of farm control and also just around you know,
what does profit look like and what does I guess
(04:44):
the tension maybe or what does the opportunity for the
different groups look like going forward? So you know, it's
a really interesting space right now.
Speaker 1 (04:52):
Let's wrap this on a very positive note. You've verged
a bit of caution around the dairy price, but you'd
have to say beef and lamb looking very promising for
this season.
Speaker 2 (05:03):
It is. Look, I think there's something to be really
excited about when it comes to the red meat space
for farm gate prices. Look, I joke about this all
the time. We're having to adjust their axes when we're
trying to show where prices are right now compared to
the five year average range and compared to the last
couple of years. So it's great news out there. We're
seeing very very strong demand, particularly from the northern Hemisphere
(05:27):
and the bast space that UIs market absolutely is yanking
up that farm gate price. And when it comes to
the lamb space as well, our friends over in the
UK and EU are certainly helping underpend solid returns at
the farm gate level. So a lot to be really
happy about, a lot to be really confident about. I think,
(05:48):
as we're passing through Lemming and looking down the barrel
of summer, let's just hope the weather stays favorable in
terms of maximizing on as we move through the coming month.
Speaker 1 (06:00):
Well, Emma Bunton, Oops, that's a fraudian slip. Let me
try Emma Higgins. Did you like what I did there?
Emma Higgins from Rabobank, Thanks for your time and thanks
for sharing your stories about being a posh spice and
a past life.
Speaker 2 (06:14):
An your time, Jamie
She is a senior ag analyst with Rabobank and continuing
our Spy Girls musical theme today on the Country, Emma Higgins,
like Jane Smith, you're of an age where you were
probably a Spy Skirl fan growing up. Or am I
misreading you?
Speaker 2 (00:16):
No, you have nailed me completely with what may likes
were when it comes to the nineties pop bands, and
I did have the platform shoes Jamie I did.
Speaker 1 (00:27):
Jane hated the Spy Girls. She looked a bit like
Baby Spice with the blonde hair, but in real life,
Jane Smith's scary Spice. If we were to compare you
to one of the Spy Girls, who would it be? Well?
Speaker 2 (00:40):
I too, because I have quite dark here. So I
was always referred to as Posh Space.
Speaker 1 (00:47):
So you actually you actually had a nickname called Posh Spice.
Speaker 2 (00:50):
Well, no, but when we were doing our band performances,
obviously in front of all the school, Posh Space was
my character that I was trust into. And you know what,
after watching her on Netflix, I'll still take Posh Space.
Speaker 1 (01:05):
Let's get on to stuff that we need to talk about,
Emma Higgins, And of course we've already chatted to Miles
Hurrel about the GDT auction event. It was a bit
of a dog's breakfast overnight getting the results. But the
tone of it is it's down a couple of percent,
pretty much as expected with the futures market now, I
asked him, So I've got to ask you not only
(01:26):
about the spy skills, but is ten dollars under threat?
Speaker 2 (01:30):
I think we need to be prudent here, Jamie and
start thinking about what emmilk price looks like. That's a
little lower than that. I think tim Bucks is still
achievable this season, but our salespeople are going to have
to work pretty hard for that. And so in the
absence of, you know, putting a lot of trust and
hope into our sales team, it could be quite prudent
(01:51):
for farmers out there to think about what nine fifty
might look like or something a little bit less than ten.
I'm just given that the milk rate the market right
now has too much milk, and that's what's reflected in
the GDT outcomes that we've seen of the last three whiles.
And when you think about it, we've just had our
latest results come through for September. When it comes to
(02:12):
milk production, we've just seen a record volume of milk
being produced for the month of September, and that's a
trend that we've actually been playing out since about May
this year. So there's a plenty of milk coming from
this part of the world. That's the same out of
the United States as well, similar to with Europe, and
buyers are feeling pretty comfortable that they've got plenty of choice.
Speaker 1 (02:36):
Yeah, Miles Sarrel said, they're smelling a bit of blood
in the water and thereafter a good deal. Interestingly, talking
to farmer Tom Martin, my UK correspondent yesterday, British milk
exports have lifted by twenty percent. So let's move on
from dairy. I want you to put on your red
meat hat. What commentary have you got around that Alliance vote?
Speaker 2 (02:57):
Well, it was a very strong outcome, wasn't it, Jamie.
And look, I know that you've traversed a lot of
this over the last few days and certainly in the
weeks leading up to it, but certainly our farmers right
now are deciding the fate of cooperatives in one sense
or another, whether it was the Alliance vote that we
just saw come through yesterday, or whether it's the Fonterra
(03:18):
vote and the outcome of which will be announced at
the end of this month. There are quite different circumstances
obviously between the two, but you know, it is a
watershed moment. Alliance was the last one hundred percent from
owned red meat co operatives and they clearly have voted
against this model in favor of waters effectively foreign ownership,
(03:39):
whereas Dawn meets owning sixty five percent steak in Alliance group.
Assuming it all goes through, all the eyes are dotted,
teeth crossed, and the High Court is also an agreement
as well. So look at is really a momentous time
I think for a rid meat space. And we've talked
about it before, Jamie. You know, cooperatives do have a
(04:00):
few challenges when it comes to accessing capital to really
maximize the market opportunities. We've seen it before historically, and
Alliance is no different right to other clocks have faced
their challenges. What we've seen in terumber. This vote is
a vote for a fast capital injection, so external capital
(04:22):
coming in that will theoretically provide opportunity for the group
to progress and achieve whatever growth strategies that they have.
The risk is Jamie, let me see a dilution or
a loss of farm control and also just around you know,
what does profit look like and what does I guess
(04:44):
the tension maybe or what does the opportunity for the
different groups look like going forward? So you know, it's
a really interesting space right now.
Speaker 1 (04:52):
Let's wrap this on a very positive note. You've verged
a bit of caution around the dairy price, but you'd
have to say beef and lamb looking very promising for
this season.
Speaker 2 (05:03):
It is. Look, I think there's something to be really
excited about when it comes to the red meat space
for farm gate prices. Look, I joke about this all
the time. We're having to adjust their axes when we're
trying to show where prices are right now compared to
the five year average range and compared to the last
couple of years. So it's great news out there. We're
seeing very very strong demand, particularly from the northern Hemisphere
(05:27):
and the bast space that UIs market absolutely is yanking
up that farm gate price. And when it comes to
the lamb space as well, our friends over in the
UK and EU are certainly helping underpend solid returns at
the farm gate level. So a lot to be really
happy about, a lot to be really confident about. I think,
(05:48):
as we're passing through Lemming and looking down the barrel
of summer, let's just hope the weather stays favorable in
terms of maximizing on as we move through the coming month.
Speaker 1 (06:00):
Well, Emma Bunton, Oops, that's a fraudian slip. Let me
try Emma Higgins. Did you like what I did there?
Emma Higgins from Rabobank, Thanks for your time and thanks
for sharing your stories about being a posh spice and
a past life.
Speaker 2 (06:14):
An your time, Jamie
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