September 25, 2025 • 5 mins
Friday’s weather guy from Earth Sciences NZ offers more of the same - wet, windy and cold! Except for the dry regions, where Hawke’s Bay is now showing up on the Drought Index map.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
So he's kicking off the show today. Our man at
Earth Sciences in z the artist formerly known as Newhere
Chris Brendo Brandolino, and no one enjoys a good Chris
Drought Index map more than me. I live and die
by it when I check to you in the summer months,
I don't expect to see color on it in late September.
(00:24):
It's a bit of a worry.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
It is. Yeah, Look, we're seeing westerlies, and the westerlies
are going to persist a bit longer. We were thinking,
you know, a couple of weeks ago the westerlies, which
we knew would come, but the indications were a few
weeks ago they would ease, you know, as we get
toward end of September early October. That's now probably going
to continue, Jamie, into the middle part of October. And
now as a consequence of western areas, particularly western South Ion,
(00:49):
getting you know, bucket loads of rain, but eastern areas
of both ions are dry, and that westerly wind is
likely because of something over the South Paul at the
top of the atmosphere, sudden stratospheric warming way at the
top of the atmosphere, basically what's happening is that the
atmophere is warming rapidly over a short period of time,
(01:10):
roughly week, and that has flowing effects to our weather,
and we don't enough time to get into it. But
basically that is helping to keep the westerliest going. So
that will be a theme Jamie over the next probably
three or four weeks. So unfortunately, I think areas that
are dry now are probably not going to get much better.
In fact, they make it drier as we work away
(01:30):
through the first week or two of October.
Speaker 1 (01:32):
So that way better. Yellow that's showing up very early
in the season is in hawks By. That is the
driest region.
Speaker 2 (01:39):
That's right. Yeah, and with that Hawks Bay. Speaking of
hawks Bay, it is going to be really warm this weekend.
Saturday Tomorrow, Hawk's Bay, eastern Gisbon likely see temperatures at
least in the lower twenties. I think on Sunday parts
of Hawk's Bay could napier Hastings and certainly areas around
Hawk's Bay could see temperatures twenty four twenty six degrees.
(02:01):
We could be seeing near record September warmth in that
part of the country thanks to those brisk Northwest kind
of fern winds coming off the Central Plateau, and that
warmth continues into Monday, maybe not quite as warm, but
certainly in lower twenties at least. Meanwhile, it cools off
for the South Island on Monday, so it will be
warm in the eastern South Island, Otago, your neck of
the woods on Sunday, Canterbury, just not quite as warm
(02:24):
as Hawk's Bay, and we do have to watch out
for those gusty spring winds continuing today. A windy day
for the Lower North Island and much of the I
guess much of the Eastern and Lower North Island that
will ease but still remain elevated. This week. Another round
of gusty wind Jamie. It looks to come early next week,
and then as we move forward into I would say
(02:46):
much of next week, it's the same old thing. A
lot of rain on the western part of the South Island.
That's where the most rain is going to fall over
the next seven to ten days, and the western North
Island they're not going to be excluded. They'll see some
decent rain over the next seven days.
Speaker 1 (03:00):
So in summary, if you're too dry or too weight,
it's more of the sign for the next few weeks.
Speaker 2 (03:07):
It really is. Yeah, and we are expecting as we
get into the middle part of October, from about the
middle part of October onward, we are expecting. Now this
may change. We'll see how that sudden stratospheric warning kind
of you know, kind of a wild card that brings.
But as of now, we are expecting strong ridging to
move into much where that's high pressure moving in and
(03:29):
settling over much of the country middle part of October
into the end of October. As we get from roughly Halloween,
very late October into especially November, there are some very
early signs we could see some rain bands, maybe atmospheric
rivers come in from the northwest, and those can bring
really heavy rain. They can result in really heavy rain
(03:51):
for parts of the country. So just something to kind
of keep in mind and watch. We have many, many
days and weeks to watch this, but this is the
direction of travel. Will be issuing our updated Climbate Outlook
seasonal Climbate out Look next week. Oh by the way,
Jamie for farmers who want to stay on top of
rainfall historically and rainfall move looking forward for the next week.
(04:12):
Our Hotspot Report we just started publishing that this season.
That's on our website. You can still type in Neila
or he can type in Earth Sciences this type of
hotspot report, and that should be on the website if
it's not out now pretty darn soon, and that'll be
updated once a week and something hopefully farmers can leverage
to help them understand what's coming down the pike.
Speaker 1 (04:30):
Finally, if you're hitting to Ayton Park tomorrow night, didn't
do you need to bring a rhine proof.
Speaker 2 (04:34):
Jacket tomorrow night? So Saturday, yeah, well.
Speaker 1 (04:39):
Five five five, sorry Chris, five pm, I'm putting your
own five pm.
Speaker 2 (04:43):
Yeah. Look, I think there will be showers, probably early on.
In fact, as I'm going to my handy dandy to
give me literally three two and I'm going to our
ensemble map.
Speaker 1 (04:55):
One, the game will show oh evening.
Speaker 2 (04:58):
Look it's going to rain tomorrow during the afternoon. Those
showers should end by six, seven o'clock. So yeah, Brandon Jackets,
just in case. If it rains, it'll be early on
toward five or six.
Speaker 1 (05:07):
Get on you, Chris braind delight, enjoy your weekend. We'll
catch you back next week, all right
Speaker 2 (05:12):
My friend, you too,
So he's kicking off the show today. Our man at
Earth Sciences in z the artist formerly known as Newhere
Chris Brendo Brandolino, and no one enjoys a good Chris
Drought Index map more than me. I live and die
by it when I check to you in the summer months,
I don't expect to see color on it in late September.
(00:24):
It's a bit of a worry.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
It is. Yeah, Look, we're seeing westerlies, and the westerlies
are going to persist a bit longer. We were thinking,
you know, a couple of weeks ago the westerlies, which
we knew would come, but the indications were a few
weeks ago they would ease, you know, as we get
toward end of September early October. That's now probably going
to continue, Jamie, into the middle part of October. And
now as a consequence of western areas, particularly western South Ion,
(00:49):
getting you know, bucket loads of rain, but eastern areas
of both ions are dry, and that westerly wind is
likely because of something over the South Paul at the
top of the atmosphere, sudden stratospheric warming way at the
top of the atmosphere, basically what's happening is that the
atmophere is warming rapidly over a short period of time,
(01:10):
roughly week, and that has flowing effects to our weather,
and we don't enough time to get into it. But
basically that is helping to keep the westerliest going. So
that will be a theme Jamie over the next probably
three or four weeks. So unfortunately, I think areas that
are dry now are probably not going to get much better.
In fact, they make it drier as we work away
(01:30):
through the first week or two of October.
Speaker 1 (01:32):
So that way better. Yellow that's showing up very early
in the season is in hawks By. That is the
driest region.
Speaker 2 (01:39):
That's right. Yeah, and with that Hawks Bay. Speaking of
hawks Bay, it is going to be really warm this weekend.
Saturday Tomorrow, Hawk's Bay, eastern Gisbon likely see temperatures at
least in the lower twenties. I think on Sunday parts
of Hawk's Bay could napier Hastings and certainly areas around
Hawk's Bay could see temperatures twenty four twenty six degrees.
(02:01):
We could be seeing near record September warmth in that
part of the country thanks to those brisk Northwest kind
of fern winds coming off the Central Plateau, and that
warmth continues into Monday, maybe not quite as warm, but
certainly in lower twenties at least. Meanwhile, it cools off
for the South Island on Monday, so it will be
warm in the eastern South Island, Otago, your neck of
the woods on Sunday, Canterbury, just not quite as warm
(02:24):
as Hawk's Bay, and we do have to watch out
for those gusty spring winds continuing today. A windy day
for the Lower North Island and much of the I
guess much of the Eastern and Lower North Island that
will ease but still remain elevated. This week. Another round
of gusty wind Jamie. It looks to come early next week,
and then as we move forward into I would say
(02:46):
much of next week, it's the same old thing. A
lot of rain on the western part of the South Island.
That's where the most rain is going to fall over
the next seven to ten days, and the western North
Island they're not going to be excluded. They'll see some
decent rain over the next seven days.
Speaker 1 (03:00):
So in summary, if you're too dry or too weight,
it's more of the sign for the next few weeks.
Speaker 2 (03:07):
It really is. Yeah, and we are expecting as we
get into the middle part of October, from about the
middle part of October onward, we are expecting. Now this
may change. We'll see how that sudden stratospheric warning kind
of you know, kind of a wild card that brings.
But as of now, we are expecting strong ridging to
move into much where that's high pressure moving in and
(03:29):
settling over much of the country middle part of October
into the end of October. As we get from roughly Halloween,
very late October into especially November, there are some very
early signs we could see some rain bands, maybe atmospheric
rivers come in from the northwest, and those can bring
really heavy rain. They can result in really heavy rain
(03:51):
for parts of the country. So just something to kind
of keep in mind and watch. We have many, many
days and weeks to watch this, but this is the
direction of travel. Will be issuing our updated Climbate Outlook
seasonal Climbate out Look next week. Oh by the way,
Jamie for farmers who want to stay on top of
rainfall historically and rainfall move looking forward for the next week.
(04:12):
Our Hotspot Report we just started publishing that this season.
That's on our website. You can still type in Neila
or he can type in Earth Sciences this type of
hotspot report, and that should be on the website if
it's not out now pretty darn soon, and that'll be
updated once a week and something hopefully farmers can leverage
to help them understand what's coming down the pike.
Speaker 1 (04:30):
Finally, if you're hitting to Ayton Park tomorrow night, didn't
do you need to bring a rhine proof.
Speaker 2 (04:34):
Jacket tomorrow night? So Saturday, yeah, well.
Speaker 1 (04:39):
Five five five, sorry Chris, five pm, I'm putting your
own five pm.
Speaker 2 (04:43):
Yeah. Look, I think there will be showers, probably early on.
In fact, as I'm going to my handy dandy to
give me literally three two and I'm going to our
ensemble map.
Speaker 1 (04:55):
One, the game will show oh evening.
Speaker 2 (04:58):
Look it's going to rain tomorrow during the afternoon. Those
showers should end by six, seven o'clock. So yeah, Brandon Jackets,
just in case. If it rains, it'll be early on
toward five or six.
Speaker 1 (05:07):
Get on you, Chris braind delight, enjoy your weekend. We'll
catch you back next week, all right
Speaker 2 (05:12):
My friend, you too,
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