July 27, 2025 • 4 mins
Monday’s resident weather expert gives us the latest on what’s coming up this week. Unfortunately, he’s the bearer of bad news.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Trying to check out the weather. As I mentioned, I've
been down on the Manor or two a bit there,
and with little due respects to my lovely Auntie Beth,
occasionally it's colder inside the outside down there with the
frosts that are happening there. Phil Duncan, how are you?
Speaker 2 (00:15):
I'm good mate, How are you?
Speaker 1 (00:16):
Yeah? I can't complain. Are you? Are you the bearer
of good and different or bad news?
Speaker 2 (00:20):
Yeah? Probably bad news. I'm guessing this week after all
the lovely frosty weather we had last week, Yeah, this
week going downhill?
Speaker 1 (00:28):
Okay, So where should we be looking out for this
bad going downhill weather?
Speaker 2 (00:35):
So starting off with we've got wind and we've got rain.
So if we start with the weind windy northeasterlyies today
already gusting to sort of eighty kilometers an hour in
the far north and getting close to gale force around
parts of Auckland and Northland and also around Fjordland. Same
airflow going right down across the top of the country
(00:55):
in the very bottom. So those are the windy areas.
It's going to move eastwards overnight tonight and across Tuesday.
So we're going to see gusty where they're picking up
peaking tomorrow to some areas, and then that's timed with
this heavy rain which is also moving through and the
rain slow moving, so it's not necessarily you know, a huge,
widespread area of heavy rain, but a narrow area that
(01:17):
could be slow moving as it crosses New Zealand. And
so rainfall totals top of the South Island Bay have plenty,
maybe parts of the rest of the Upper North Island
and the West Coast are the main areas where we'd
be seeing up to one hundred, one hundred and fifty
millimeters also over the next twenty four to forty eight hours.
Speaker 1 (01:34):
What does that mean? One hundred and one hundred and
fifty milimeters? What sort of concerns does that rise to
some of those areas that have had enough of the
wet stuff.
Speaker 2 (01:43):
Yes, that's getting up to about a month's worth of
rainfall falling in a day or two. Now that and
winter that happens. But the reason why this is probably
sort of you know, making the news and people are
talking about it is because it is about the third
time in a row that we've seen the Upper South
Island get a heavy rain of the so more possibly
about problems there and other areas that have already had rain.
(02:05):
Parts of white cut Over, for example, already water logged
and some farms have a bit of ponding on them.
So you throw in a whole lot of rain on
top of it, it just means that the waterways get
bigger and everything gets more water log So it's a
decent bit of rain, but hopefully it's not going right
up into that very problematic area. So it's a pain
in the neck and there could be some areas keep
(02:25):
up to date with those Met Service warnings to sort
of figure out where.
Speaker 1 (02:29):
But talking with Phil darged from where the watch felt historically,
has the likes of the top of the South Island
had sort of back to back dumping events like this
or was this something a bit new?
Speaker 2 (02:43):
You have to look at it like New Zealand is
very very small and in the big picture of the weather.
So when you as a weather forecast to look at
the highs and the lows that come in, you zoom
right out and look at the whole southern hemisphere from
the equator right down to Antarctica. When you look at
it that way, you realize that we're sort of a
little dot. And so it's the shape of the lows
and the highs as they pass over us, which changes
(03:04):
all the time. There's sort of bubbles of air pressure
and they change every year, just like the clouds do.
And so if you get a line of low pressure
and high pressure in the right or wrong places, you
can end up getting repeat performances every few weeks until
that pattern shakes itself clear. It goes the other way
when we go into drought, and you end up with
one high after the other kind of stuck, and so
(03:25):
you need something big to mix it all up. And
we're in a neutral year this year. There's no Lae
mean you no ol mino. And so for now and
probably going into August, we're going to see more of
these sorts of rain events and these sorts of lows.
Hopefully not all in the same spot, though.
Speaker 1 (03:41):
Will we get any of those beautiful clear crisp days
that follow the frost are they sort of? Is there
anything of that in the short term after this rain.
Speaker 2 (03:51):
I think there will be. It may not be nationwide
like we had last week, but there's certainly some charts
a South Island could be seeing more high pressure coming
through Southland's been having sort of lower rainfall than other
parts of the country, and so has Fijudland. So those
areas typically get a lot of rain at this time
of year, or at least a lot of rain events
tracking near them. We're not quite seeing that as much
(04:13):
in recent weeks. But there is some high pressure returning here,
but maybe not for everyone. But I do think August
is going to bring variety like July did, so we
do see some big highs coming out of Australia. They're
having a really stormy week at the moment as well,
probably their most unsettled week this year. So we're all
part of that system as well.
Speaker 1 (04:32):
Right out. We'll keep a very close eye on things.
That is Phil dark and from weather Watch here on
the country. Just wrapping that up us. Phil mentioned the
narrow band of rainfall that's kind of at the top
of the south Old Carmental by a bloody whiteout. I
take care around those nor easterlies gale force in the
far North and coming down towards Auckland and Field and
as well
Trying to check out the weather. As I mentioned, I've
been down on the Manor or two a bit there,
and with little due respects to my lovely Auntie Beth,
occasionally it's colder inside the outside down there with the
frosts that are happening there. Phil Duncan, how are you?
Speaker 2 (00:15):
I'm good mate, How are you?
Speaker 1 (00:16):
Yeah? I can't complain. Are you? Are you the bearer
of good and different or bad news?
Speaker 2 (00:20):
Yeah? Probably bad news. I'm guessing this week after all
the lovely frosty weather we had last week, Yeah, this
week going downhill?
Speaker 1 (00:28):
Okay, So where should we be looking out for this
bad going downhill weather?
Speaker 2 (00:35):
So starting off with we've got wind and we've got rain.
So if we start with the weind windy northeasterlyies today
already gusting to sort of eighty kilometers an hour in
the far north and getting close to gale force around
parts of Auckland and Northland and also around Fjordland. Same
airflow going right down across the top of the country
(00:55):
in the very bottom. So those are the windy areas.
It's going to move eastwards overnight tonight and across Tuesday.
So we're going to see gusty where they're picking up
peaking tomorrow to some areas, and then that's timed with
this heavy rain which is also moving through and the
rain slow moving, so it's not necessarily you know, a huge,
widespread area of heavy rain, but a narrow area that
(01:17):
could be slow moving as it crosses New Zealand. And
so rainfall totals top of the South Island Bay have plenty,
maybe parts of the rest of the Upper North Island
and the West Coast are the main areas where we'd
be seeing up to one hundred, one hundred and fifty
millimeters also over the next twenty four to forty eight hours.
Speaker 1 (01:34):
What does that mean? One hundred and one hundred and
fifty milimeters? What sort of concerns does that rise to
some of those areas that have had enough of the
wet stuff.
Speaker 2 (01:43):
Yes, that's getting up to about a month's worth of
rainfall falling in a day or two. Now that and
winter that happens. But the reason why this is probably
sort of you know, making the news and people are
talking about it is because it is about the third
time in a row that we've seen the Upper South
Island get a heavy rain of the so more possibly
about problems there and other areas that have already had rain.
(02:05):
Parts of white cut Over, for example, already water logged
and some farms have a bit of ponding on them.
So you throw in a whole lot of rain on
top of it, it just means that the waterways get
bigger and everything gets more water log So it's a
decent bit of rain, but hopefully it's not going right
up into that very problematic area. So it's a pain
in the neck and there could be some areas keep
(02:25):
up to date with those Met Service warnings to sort
of figure out where.
Speaker 1 (02:29):
But talking with Phil darged from where the watch felt historically,
has the likes of the top of the South Island
had sort of back to back dumping events like this
or was this something a bit new?
Speaker 2 (02:43):
You have to look at it like New Zealand is
very very small and in the big picture of the weather.
So when you as a weather forecast to look at
the highs and the lows that come in, you zoom
right out and look at the whole southern hemisphere from
the equator right down to Antarctica. When you look at
it that way, you realize that we're sort of a
little dot. And so it's the shape of the lows
and the highs as they pass over us, which changes
(03:04):
all the time. There's sort of bubbles of air pressure
and they change every year, just like the clouds do.
And so if you get a line of low pressure
and high pressure in the right or wrong places, you
can end up getting repeat performances every few weeks until
that pattern shakes itself clear. It goes the other way
when we go into drought, and you end up with
one high after the other kind of stuck, and so
(03:25):
you need something big to mix it all up. And
we're in a neutral year this year. There's no Lae
mean you no ol mino. And so for now and
probably going into August, we're going to see more of
these sorts of rain events and these sorts of lows.
Hopefully not all in the same spot, though.
Speaker 1 (03:41):
Will we get any of those beautiful clear crisp days
that follow the frost are they sort of? Is there
anything of that in the short term after this rain.
Speaker 2 (03:51):
I think there will be. It may not be nationwide
like we had last week, but there's certainly some charts
a South Island could be seeing more high pressure coming
through Southland's been having sort of lower rainfall than other
parts of the country, and so has Fijudland. So those
areas typically get a lot of rain at this time
of year, or at least a lot of rain events
tracking near them. We're not quite seeing that as much
(04:13):
in recent weeks. But there is some high pressure returning here,
but maybe not for everyone. But I do think August
is going to bring variety like July did, so we
do see some big highs coming out of Australia. They're
having a really stormy week at the moment as well,
probably their most unsettled week this year. So we're all
part of that system as well.
Speaker 1 (04:32):
Right out. We'll keep a very close eye on things.
That is Phil dark and from weather Watch here on
the country. Just wrapping that up us. Phil mentioned the
narrow band of rainfall that's kind of at the top
of the south Old Carmental by a bloody whiteout. I
take care around those nor easterlies gale force in the
far North and coming down towards Auckland and Field and
as well
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