April 13, 2025 • 38 mins
Jamie Mackay talks to Phil Duncan, David Seymour, Tom Young, and Dom Jones.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to Brent, You're specialist in
John Deer construction equipment.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
Where you go, Muy, get a New Zealand and Welcome
(00:42):
to the Country. Ronan Keening Irish Keening. Let's try Keating
Irish music. Boy's own love boy bands for Rory McElroy
getting the business done, getting the business done at the
Masters and winning me fifty dollars from Sam Owen for
the IHC carf and Rural Scheme. There we go. Rory
(01:02):
finally came through. More about that later, but we're going
to kick off the show with a big boy band
fan from the late nineties. Phil Duncan our weather man
and surprise surprise, we've got none settled easter in store.
But the good news will it be the ultimate drought
breaker for the dry regions, especially of the North Island.
(01:24):
And if you're traveling, do you need to be weary?
Phil Duncan on the weather. We're going to catch up
with David Seymour. He's been in the naughty chair with
his treaty Principal's Bill, but he takes over the Deputy
Prime Ministership at the end of May. Does that mean
that he has to be nice and Winston can run
a mark. We've already seen Winston criticizing the Prime Minister
(01:47):
in the past week. We're going to have a look
at the state of the red meat industry with Tom
Young out of AFCO. He's based in Hawks Bay. They
tell me they're getting pretty dry there. And Dominic Jones
from Origin Capital Partners, one of the other great six
these stories this year and the primary sector near record
returns for kiwi fruit and a great harvest is happening.
(02:08):
But Phil Duncan, I've run out o ronan keating. Well,
there he goes, but I'll head to you. How big
a storm is this going to be this easter? It's
not going to be another Waheno storm? Is it?
Speaker 3 (02:19):
Gooday? No, it's not. But it is a nasty looking
storm at the moment. It's up in the tropics, right
over Vanawatu, and it's not a storm up there. It's
a tropical depression. It's got a moderate chance of becoming
a cyclone, but it probably won't become a tropical cyclone
because it's heading southwards and so it runs out of
the tropical conditions. To make it form, but then it
(02:40):
runs into You mentioned the Wahini. The reason why that
was interesting was because when that formed, we had an
x cyclone mixing with a cold front. In this case,
we've got a low pressure system coming down and mixing
with colder air. So it is going to see that
low deepen. But part of the reason we're going to
see such heavy rain and strong winds is actually due
to pressure that is exiting the country and looming out
(03:04):
and it slows down the rain, so therefore it lifts
up the totals and it encourages a squash zone between
those two air pressure systems. So we've got a lot
of strong northeasterlyes coming through, especially Wednesday and Thursday. For
the top half of the North Island. We're damaging winds
along with that heavy rain. I possible likely exactly.
Speaker 2 (03:22):
Okay, Well, the good news will be for the North
Island if they can get some meaningful rain and bake
a break that I'm having a shock of today, break
the back of the drought. And I'm looking at the
Kneewa map and I'm going to come back to the
we're in the METS service. Well, the South Island's just
about totally clear.
Speaker 3 (03:38):
It's good now, yes, and we've still got parts of
the North Island that are dry. And so the rain
that we had on April third and fourth, which was
very good rain and helped a lot of those dry
and drought regions, but it wasn't enough to sort of declare, oh,
that's the drought's over. I'm hostly after this event we
are in a position to say I don't think we've
got a drought anymore, but we'll have to and see.
(04:00):
But at this stage, it looks as though many of
those dry areas are going to the decent bit of
rain at the end of the week or middle to
later part of the week, followed by thunderstorms and showers
going into the weekend as well, which will bring another
burst of release. But at the same time, the second
half of the Easter weekend looks a lot more settled
for those that are gone away and making the most
of it.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
Yeah, travelers, well that's good news for the travelers. Just
going back in time, well, Haney, what year was that,
I'm going to go with nineteen sixty eight, am.
Speaker 3 (04:28):
I was going to say sixty eight as well.
Speaker 2 (04:30):
Let's go with Easter nineteen sixty eight. There's so many
interesting stories around this tragic event, and yeah, I'm getting
the thumbs up from my fill and producer. More about
her in a moment. So Easter nineteen sixty eight was
one of the biggest storms ever in New Zealand.
Speaker 3 (04:46):
It was that it produced a I believe the strongest
wind recorded, or at least the strongest in one of
our main centers, which was I think around three hundred
kilometers an hour of Wellington, which is just phenomenal. And
the air pressure was very low as well, down to
the nine sixty with that center of that storm. So
that was a that was a big system. That's nothing
like what we've got coming through here. But this storm
(05:08):
does have the potential because of what happened the last
time when these tropical systems merged with cold air, especially
in the month of April. It's a bit of an
explosive months when it comes to these sorts of weather systems.
So it's worth keeping a very close eye on Thursday's
travel plans may be changing because I think there could
be some flights canceled and certainly delayed, and maybe some
(05:28):
roads closed as well. So Thursday Friday night, so Thursday,
Thursday night Friday morning could be sort of a bit
of a main risk time.
Speaker 2 (05:35):
For warned is forearmed. Okay, Phil, met service is going
to be merged or taken over by NEE where you've
been banging on about this incessantly, Phil, incessantly for years.
Happy days for you.
Speaker 3 (05:50):
Sort of it's we'll wait and see. It's a detail.
You know that it's in the detail and that's what
we've got to see. Yet coming through the ministers can't
answer really what's going to happen next, how it's going
to look, so until we see that. If it's still
the same Kneewa management running things, I think that's a problem.
But if it's new management or the met Service management
(06:10):
sort of still running the weather side of things, I
think that's a good thing. But the most critical thing
is open data. If we don't get that, government agencies
are still going to have to keep being either blocked
from accessing data that we've all paid for or they
have to pay double triple again for it. So I
hope that the government does actually change up and freshen
up the management.
Speaker 2 (06:30):
Have we had massive duplication when it comes to our
weather forecasting services, and I know that they are doing
sort of different jobs, but six hundred at NEEWA three
hundred of the met service.
Speaker 3 (06:42):
The bottom is they don't NEEWA won't actually be transparent
about what they're doing under OIA, through the Herald, through us,
through the listener, and so no one really knows. There's
such a huge or black black cloud if you like
hanging over knew weather, what it cost, why it was done,
all that sort of stuff. I think there's a really
good opportunity to come from this to match the rest
(07:02):
of the modern world. But if we still keep it
as the old boys Club as it is now, then
I don't think much will change other than a logo
and some of you paint.
Speaker 2 (07:09):
Okay, Phil Duncan, thank you very much for the time.
I've got a special guest in the studio. She's down
here for a few days helping out. Over the next
few days we've got to weeb it on. It would
be fair to say here at the Country Rowena Duncan.
I know at one stage, Phil, you fancied changing the
M to an end and getting into a Duncan, But
off she's off the table now because our andy's in
(07:30):
a domestic situation with Rowena. But good to see you
in the studio. Sorry to tease you and Phil, but
I've done it for years, so why not continue, I know, and.
Speaker 4 (07:38):
You'll notice that Phel's actually hung up. Phil gone, Yeah,
he's gone.
Speaker 2 (07:42):
He didn't even stay for the bite. Good afternoon, it's
just you. Well, thank you very much, because the next
few days are kind of going to be busy. Hang on,
hang on, how I'll turn your mic on?
Speaker 4 (07:54):
Sorry myself now, just quickly on the way, Hay. Next
film obviously tend to Wakeful nineteen sixty eight. My grandparents
they lost all their straw, They lost all their trees,
the chimney, the chuck house, lots of wallpaper fell off
the walls because the scrim got wet in a heap
of houses. So this was at Ratana. They were farming
the Waipoo there and a lot of houses on the
(08:15):
beach road actually lost all their roots. So that's how
far away from Wellington they were. It was at Ratana,
between Wonganoy and Palmerston North. In that much damage.
Speaker 2 (08:23):
Well, I think my Wahene story beats yours. My great
uncle and aunt Elan mart they were effectively my grandparents
because my grandparents died when I was young. They they
got the double. They were such slow, terrible drivers. It
must run in the family. Although I'm not a slow driver,
I'm a terrible drive.
Speaker 5 (08:41):
There.
Speaker 2 (08:41):
Yeah, they were so slow that they couldn't get their
fairy connection to get on the Wahena.
Speaker 4 (08:46):
So they dodged.
Speaker 2 (08:47):
They dodged a bullet there because they were quite elderly
back then. But they also same deal, they missed their
train connection.
Speaker 4 (08:56):
I don't tell that this is on Christmas Eve.
Speaker 2 (08:58):
The tongue of wire rail is asked Elan mart amazing
great uncle and aunt dodging bullets. So there you go. Hey,
good to have you in the studio Row. I think
Michelle will be back tomorrow, looking forward to that. What
we're going to do now is catch up with David
Seymour before the end of the our Tom Young from
(09:19):
AFCO on Red Meat. She it's been a good story
this year, as has Kiwi Fruit, Dominic Jones on that one,
and of course we're playing Irish music from Ronan keating
for Rory. How good was that?
Speaker 4 (09:32):
Oh amazing? It was so up and down as you
say a roller coach.
Speaker 2 (09:37):
He played a shot on the par five number thirteen
that a thirty six handicapper wouldn't even want to admit to.
It's amazing and yet he can be so brilliant. I'm
pleased he won because I think if he couldn't have
closed this one out, he would be destroyed and that
would be the end of his major's career. Anyhow, Rory McElroy,
well done. How do we collect on him? But more importantly,
(09:58):
thank you Sam in the IHC calf and rural scheme
as better after the tune of fifty dollars. I want
to see a receipt for that too, Sam. And what
was he thinking with Victor Hovland.
Speaker 4 (10:09):
I have no idea. I've got no under what Sam's
thinking most of the.
Speaker 2 (10:14):
Yeah, I think it was a rush of blood at
the South Island Airy event. Anyhow, up next on the Country,
it's David Seymour. David Seymour is the act Party leader.
(10:34):
Come the thirty first of May, he'll be the Deputy
Prime Minister. Today we're going to talk about trade, the Treaty,
inflation and Willie Jackson. I'm not quite sure how we
tie all that in, but I want to start with
the Deputy Prime Minister position, David Seymour, has Winston already
started jostling for petition for positions? Should I say condemning
hysterical language to quote him are used by Luxon and
(10:57):
Trump trade tariff tour or is this just a beat
up by the media.
Speaker 6 (11:04):
Well, I don't have a good idea of what is
going on with the two of them. They're The only
thing I would say is that it's generally accepted and
respected that the Prime Minister is always the de facto
foreign minister and when it comes to relationships with other countries,
(11:27):
whatever differences we may have within New zealand And, I
think we should have more debate about the future of
our country, but that's internal when we're front up to
the rest of the world. Doesn't matter if your national
labor communist at party. We're all on Team New Zealand.
Speaker 2 (11:44):
I thought you were suggesting the Act Party was Communist.
There for a moment, David, I may have misurgd you.
Now is this all about you being a naughty boy
in your eighteen months as not being Deputy PM, annoying
the hell out of the Prime Minister with your treaties
principles And now that Winston's nearly finished, and he's been
on his best behavior, and everyone universally is saying he's
(12:06):
done a good job as our trade minister. Is Winston
going to be the naughty boy?
Speaker 6 (12:11):
Well he's not the Trade Minister, as the Foreign Affairs
sorry minister. And you know, I think it's a shame
that people say that because the Treaty Principal's Bill, you know,
putting to the heart of our country's constitution. Are we
equal or are we not to have that dismissed as
being quote unquote naughty. I think is really a sign
(12:34):
of why we find it so hard to solve problems
in this country.
Speaker 2 (12:38):
David, you had three hundred thousand submissions. The previous record
was one hundred ninety percent opposing it. And I know
that you're appeasing your constituency, but sometimes are sleeping dogs
best left to lie?
Speaker 7 (12:52):
No.
Speaker 6 (12:53):
A couple of things. First of all, anyone who thinks
Select Committee submissions are indicator of public opinion need only
look at the end of life choice or abortion. In
both cases and eighty percent of submissions were opposed, and
yet the public overwhelmingly supported those law changes. Why is
that happening? Because whenever you put up an issue, people
(13:16):
come and object. If they don't like it, they're less
likely to submit on something that they actually support. That's
just a fact of life. Well, the number that's submitted
on treaty principles, I think shows that people do know
the question of what our treaty means matters to our country.
If you want to be able to do resource consents,
run local government, do education and health, everything is harder
(13:40):
when we're constantly divided by when our ancestors arrive so
far from being naughty or annoying, it's extra one has
to have be able to us.
Speaker 2 (13:51):
I'm over the Treaty Principle's bill. Now a poll out
suggesting something that we already knew. The cost of living
is still the biggest concern in this country. Supposedly, new
data duwe out this week will show inflation has risen
for the first time in about two or three years.
But there is a solution, David Seymour, it's sitting right
(14:11):
in front of your nose, and Willie Jackson was smart
enough to realize this. All you need to do is
take the gst off meat.
Speaker 6 (14:21):
Well, we're start. I mean, first of all, I'm a
big fan of GDP Live. If you haven't checked it out,
try googling it. It's a guy called Christoph Schumacher at
MESSI and he takes real time data every day from
a whole lot of businesses to get a sense of
where GDP and inflation are at. Rather than waiting three
(14:43):
months for Statistics New Zealand to tell us what it
was doing two months ago, you can get it in
real time, so GDP Live And unfortunately I just looked
at it before this interview. In November, inflation was down
to two point zero three. Now it's up to two
point four to two according to this very precise real
time measures. So that would tell you that, you know,
(15:03):
when Stats New Zealand gets around to it, they two
are going to say GDP sorry, inflation has started rising again,
and that is a real concern. There's no question that
people have been doing it tough for a long time.
We crushed inflation down to two point two in the
official record, peers to have gotten a new lease of life.
All I can say is that you know, there's things
(15:24):
you can control, there's things you can't. We can't control
the Americans, we can't control global trade. What we can
control is red tape and government waste and spending. So
all Act brings to the table is less less red
tape and less the government waste. Freeze people up to
be productive now when you and that means you've got
more goods for the amount of money, and that means
(15:44):
slower prices and better lives. So that's all we can do,
and that's exactly what we are doing right across the board.
I won't give you the whole gamut of red tape
cutting we're doing, but you know, people know it's a lot.
When it comes to Willie Jackson, I mean, what can
you say? I mean, you know it texts me all
the time, but he never fronted up to debate me.
(16:05):
When TV three offered him the chance to debate me
on treaty principles, he had a whole year to ask
me questions about it.
Speaker 5 (16:11):
In the house.
Speaker 6 (16:12):
He asked me one question and he got annihilated so
badly that when we put it on YouTube, eighty thousand
people watched him get annihilated asking me a question. Now
he pops up saying he wants to take gest off meat. Well,
here's a few things. One is that the GST savings
will go probably about half, maybe more to the supermarkets
who are selling it, rather than to the consumer. The
(16:35):
money that gets saved by the consumer we'll get mostly
of people buying I Phillips, not to people buying mints,
because they'll get a bigger GST discount. It's a dream
for a tax account, and it's not a dream for
if you've got to pay them, and the people paying
the will be the consumer. So it's just about impossible
to think of a stupid, more complicated, less effective pollupsy
(16:58):
than gest off meat if you want to help struggling families. However,
it's just about impossible to think of a stupid a
politician than Willy get Oh right.
Speaker 2 (17:06):
Well we'll leave it at that. David Seymour in the
naughty chair, but he's about to move to the responsible
chair at the end of May. Thanks for your time
on the Country, David.
Speaker 7 (17:17):
No worry, Janie.
Speaker 2 (17:18):
It is twenty seven, make that twenty eight. After twelve
year with the Country brought to you by Brent, we're
going to take a break. We're going to update rural
news with Rowena. Good to have her in the studio
and also sports news for you if you haven't caught
up with it. The big story of the day Rory
McElroy becoming the sixth man to complete a professional Grand
(17:41):
Slam of Majores. He tried his hardest along the way
to blow it. I thought I was a choker. I
think Rory is just about as bad as me. He's
a lot better golfer than me, obviously, but he's going
to look back on that and think what was I thinking? Anyhow?
Up next, the state of the red meat industry. It's
been a real success story this year in the primary sector.
(18:03):
Plus we're going to have a look at kiwi fruit.
It's going great guns as well. We're getting well through
the harvest season. Tom Yng on red meat, Dominic Jones
on kiwi fruit as we play good Irish songs. One
(18:32):
of the great success stories of the primary sector this
season has been red meat well above expectations. But how
much of a threat is Trump and as tariffs? Let's
find out what's happening on the ground at the coal face.
Tom Young is afco's National Livestock Manager. Tom how much
of the ten percent tariff is going to be paid
(18:53):
for ultimately? Are by New Zealand farmers? Good afternoon, By
the way, yeah, yeah.
Speaker 5 (18:59):
Hi Jamie. Look, we start out with the intention of
making the Americans pay the tariff themselves, so we just
we held onto our pricing at pre tariff levels I
guess for a bit. But we have seen in the
last few days or I guess a week or so,
we've seen probably the Australians of clawback five percent, so
(19:19):
half the teriff value. But it still works. Okay, Like
we're still keep you where we're sitting, and we don't
think at this point in time it's going to have
any adverse effect on schedules, so we're comfortable with it.
Speaker 2 (19:31):
Okay, that's the US. What about our biggest market, our
biggest trading partner, not for red meat, that's the US currently,
but China. There's going to be a lot of collateral
damage out of this trade war. It's going to affect
the Chinese economy ultimately that's got to affect us.
Speaker 5 (19:48):
Yeah, yeah, I guess you're right. I mean what we
have seen, or what I can coming on now is
we've seen a huge amount of demand come out of
China in the last week or two. So there have
been some sort of some big players talking to us,
questioning us whether they can have big volumes of meat,
and I'm talking hundreds of loads of meat, and we
don't have the product. So obviously we're going into the
(20:11):
time of the year we were shortening up on product capacity,
starting to get backed off, but we simply don't have
a heavy amount of meat that the demand is therefore
coming out of China. So they sort of come out
of nowhere and they're sort of building it up and
they're desperate to get some product.
Speaker 2 (20:27):
Now I see an Aussie analyst I've just forgotten as name,
you might better fill in the missing pieces for me,
said that Lamb's going to be ten bucks of quilo.
Happy days.
Speaker 5 (20:38):
Yeah, happy days. I mean I think his name was
Simon Cruelty and I mean nice to say, but probably
doesn't really help New Zealand and the drives the price
of stores stock mad and can probably put expectations in
people's heads that might not be there. I think my
personal view is if you had a if you had
a prediction from a large company in New Zealand, a
(21:01):
red meat company, and they said, look, we think it
might get to this level, it's a bit more sort
of believable than a third party. He has no sort
of vest of interest in the New Zealand red meat sector.
Speaker 2 (21:12):
So we're getting near the end of the season. We're
all scrambling, or you guys are scrambling to supply enough
meat to these markets the US and China which just
can't seem to get enough of it at the moment.
Do you know what that sings out to me, Tom Young?
Procurement war.
Speaker 5 (21:29):
Yeah, everyone talks about a procurement war. I think it's
it's already super competitive. There's enough people looking to buy
red meat in New Zealand and processes that you're never
not going to get a competitive price week on week
at any time of the year. I guess in the
middle of winter, late winter, you'll see some pressure on
the price. You know that we're a long way through
(21:50):
the Lamb cooll now beef and Lamb took the land
call sort of back a million lambs, so there's no
doubt we're going to have a shortage and all that
procurement war. I don't know. I think everyone and puts
the beast foot forward now with a contract or a price,
a weekly spot price, and does the best to sort
of buy some lambs there going broke. So yeah, our
view will always be to have a competitive price, but
(22:13):
we're not going to take it to a level where
we don't exist in a year or two time.
Speaker 2 (22:17):
A sheep farm is ultimately going to win by being
the last man standing. If you've still got a sheep
farm and you're raising some lamb, if the pine trees
haven't invaded your sheep farm already, there's going to be
so few that they're going to be worth a fortune.
Speaker 5 (22:32):
Well, I mean they've rebounded. The price is rebounded massively,
has it in the last six seven eight months?
Speaker 6 (22:38):
So?
Speaker 5 (22:39):
But it's always been a psychical business, hasn't it. Read meat,
it goes up, it goes down. It's no different dairy farming.
I think if you've got a farm and you've got
a good system, and you've got a way of farming
and that works, you know, whatever your percentage of sheep
to cattle at, you need to stick with it. I
think people that change stock classes and dive in and
out of markets and try and find Elderado or Pennessee
(23:02):
somewhere generally come unglued. And the people that stick with
a good policy tend to come out of it on
a five year average and a better position than those
are in and out of different classes to stop.
Speaker 2 (23:12):
We've heard how the US is going to take several
years more than one to build up the beef. Does
that mean that like beef prices for the next few years,
tearaffs aside are going to be strong.
Speaker 5 (23:24):
Well, you think so, wouldn't you. But I mean we
have seen times when you know, South America can turn
up with a lot of beef too out of nowhere.
So logically you'd say, if there's a global shortage of
price will be held up. But you know, there have
been times when we've seen that shortage has been shortened
in a hurry and all of a sudden, countries have
(23:45):
found a lot of beef that probably people haven't expected either.
So I would say, you know, looking out over the
next next six to twelve months, probably pretty healthy pricing,
Pretty hard to see too much past. Then I would
have thought, let's.
Speaker 2 (23:59):
Just finish on weather and track conditions as I like
to call them, around the country. We know them. We
know the North Island's been particularly dry, the west part
of it, the dry part of it has received some
useful rain. You guys on the east coast and Hawk's
Bay where you're based have fared much better. But you've
headed into a typically dry autumn.
Speaker 5 (24:19):
Yeah, we have, so we're probably a little bit too
dry now. But hopefully this Wednesday and Thursday is sort
of fifty tow one hundred miles predicted with the black
so that it will turn us a round if it
does arrive.
Speaker 2 (24:31):
It's called easter, Tom. It's a rain maker and a windmaker.
Speaker 5 (24:35):
That's right.
Speaker 2 (24:36):
He thank you very much for some of your time
today as the national livestock manager for Rathco onwards and
upwards for the meat prices bugger.
Speaker 5 (24:44):
Truck let's hope say wonderful Thanks Jamie.
Speaker 2 (24:48):
Good on you, Tom, Thanks for joining us today on
the country. Up next, we're going to take We're taking
a break and then Rowena Duncan with the latest and
aurural news. I'll update sports news for you and Rory's
magnificent victory at Augusta. Before the end of the hour,
we're going to segue. We're going to pivot, Rowena. Do
you like that word? Yep, Mike's not on. We're going
(25:10):
to pivot from red meat to keywed for Dom Jones,
Managing Director of Origin Capital Partners, are here again twenty
(25:32):
away from one You're with the Country brought to you
by Brandt's special guest in the studio today, and we
don't know for how long this week. It just depends
how everything pans out for us. Rowena Duncan are here
with the latest and rural news, the.
Speaker 1 (25:47):
Country's world news with Cap Cadet, New Zealand's leading right
on lawn Bower brand Visit steel Ford dot co dot
insip for your locals.
Speaker 2 (25:55):
Douggist.
Speaker 4 (25:56):
Honestly, Jamie listening to NFL talk about the weather. I'm
down here because I'm going hunting in the Maniototo over
easter and Anzac weekend, and we were just thinking it's
going to be perfect, starting to snow up there, deer
starting to roar, and then the rain's going to come through.
It's going to be interesting.
Speaker 2 (26:10):
I don't care. I don't care about your boring shooting
stories for Arena all. I just want the venuson. Yeah,
because you are house sitting for me or blunching at
our house. So I actually you got to pay the way.
There's no such thing as a free lunch. You and
your mate and the mani Atto need to get me
some of that wild venison of us to die for.
Speaker 4 (26:29):
We have got a job and just looking at you, Jammie,
first time I've seen you in the flesh pretty much
apart from Wellington all this year. You've got incredible skin
for a sixty five year old. And I noticed the
headline over the week in Trump shows signs of sun
damage after frequent golf wins, Like, is that your beauty secret?
You suck at golf. You don't win very much, so
your skin's fine.
Speaker 2 (26:48):
Well, you've got me on the hot hair, but probably
unlike well, not unlike Rory, he sprays it. But I
spend a lot of time under the tree, so I
think I'm always lucky that I'm in the shade. I'm
playing most of my golf. Let's have rural.
Speaker 4 (27:02):
News, okay, Yeah. The Foundation for Arable Research has a
new CEO, Doctor Scott Champion, will take over from the
current FAR Chief Executive, Dr Allison Stewart on the first
of July.
Speaker 2 (27:12):
Now.
Speaker 4 (27:12):
Doctor Champion is the program director of the Calogg Rural
Leadership Program in former Chief executive of Beef and Land,
New Zealand and the New Zealand Meetboard. So over twenty
five years of experience in the primary sector and a
good appointment moving forward. That is your rural news. Jamie
his sport.
Speaker 1 (27:30):
Sport with AFCO Kiwi to the bone since nineteen oh four.
Speaker 2 (27:35):
Yes, Rory McElroy has become the sixth man. What a
great lot of golf as he's joining too to complete
the professional Grand Slam of Majors. The Northern Irishman's won
the Masters, defeating Justin Rose on the opening hole of
their sudden death playoff at Augusta after he missed a
relatively easy part to secure the Masters. On the eighteenth,
(27:56):
McElroy's reflected on his seventeenth tenth attempt to join the
exclusive club to win all four majors. But I don't
know how to work the audio for that, so let's
just reflect with Rory on that one and angst Angs
for Red Bulls, Max for Stapin. As McLaren returned to
the top of the podium after Formula one's Bahrain Grand Prix,
(28:19):
Oscar Piastre became the first dual winner of the season,
with the Staffin only able to muster sixth. McLaren's Constructors
Championship leader is now fifty eight points. Horol Liam Lawson
was gradually relegated should I say from thirteenth to sixteenth
after two time penalties. That is the latest and auroral
news up next. Dominic Jones on Kiwi fruit, I will run.
(28:53):
So you've heard about the prospects for red meat from
Tom Young out of a fco. Let's look at kiwi fruit.
It's huge this year. It's having a boomer of a season.
Dominic Jones is the managing director of Origin Capital Partners
Large Scale Growers. Can I call you corporates? Dom or?
Is that a naughty word?
Speaker 7 (29:13):
Jamie? Thanks having me on. You can call us whatever
you like.
Speaker 2 (29:17):
Well, I'll just call you a large scale grower. Talk
to me about the season. Let's start with this question.
How far through the harvest is the keyw fruit industry
At the moment, the read.
Speaker 7 (29:28):
Is one hundred percent done, the gold is halfway through,
and the green is about a quarter of the way through.
So the industry as a total would be about forty
to the center its harvest.
Speaker 2 (29:38):
So what part of the country goes first? And I
asked to say, for instance, does the Gisbane region harvest
before bayer plenty?
Speaker 7 (29:48):
Yes, you tend to red will be earliest, and then
you tend to get either the far north of New Zealand,
Kerry Carey or down in Gisbon being first, and when
the bar plenty comes online, and so the gold the
gold harvest has been going since the first or second
week of March. That'll run all the way through to
(30:09):
about early middle of May, whereas the green just started
a week or two ago and that'll run through to
early mid June.
Speaker 2 (30:18):
Well, let's hope someone clement read the weather around the
easter period doesn't upset the apple cut is a clever
play on words for you. Let's talk about Kiwi fruit
read is this the next big thing or is it
always just going to be a niche product.
Speaker 7 (30:33):
I suspect it will be a niche product. It's really
early days. So this year the industry will do about
two hundred and five million trades kiwi fruit and reads
about three of that, so read really early stage. It'll
be a part of the part of the offering. But
for the fulfillable future, sun Gold will certainly be the
(30:56):
largest contributor, followed by Green this year. Out of the
two hundred million odd trays one hundred and thirty to
one hundred and forty Big Gold, about sixty million will
be Green and then a little bit of red in
some organics, as can.
Speaker 2 (31:10):
We forrit Green making a bit of a comeback because
I thought a couple of years ago it was going
to be totally outmoded by the gold or is it
just the fact that there aren't enough gold licenses out
there for everyone to convert.
Speaker 7 (31:22):
Look, there's a few things happening, I guess, like most
of the primary sector, costs went up a hell of
a lot, and so for green, which is a lower
yielding in lower paying for it variety, the margins got
squeezed a lot quicker. That came at the same time.
It's just some pretty horrible growing conditions across twenty twenty two,
twenty twenty three, and so all growers got hit pretty
(31:44):
hard by that, but in particular green where it's lower margin.
But Green Green had a very good year last year.
This year is looking pretty good as well. And over
time you tend to see the total green supply decrease,
and that's growers slowly converting those orchards to gold, and
so that has a positive effect on pricing in the market. Obviously,
(32:06):
less fruit to sell, the more you get paid for it.
Speaker 2 (32:09):
I know, this is quite a big premium on for
organic product green and gold. Is it worth going organic?
Speaker 7 (32:21):
That very much depends on the grower and the orchard.
You obviously have a lot less tools than you talk it,
so the yields tend to be lower, but you do
get paid more for that fruit. In aggregate, the OGRs
per hecta are lower on organic than they are conventional,
(32:41):
but that's not to say that they're not organic growers
making very good money as well.
Speaker 2 (32:45):
Are we going to see expansion in the Kiwi fruit industry?
And I know that Zespri controls it with an iron fist,
which is good in terms of the volume and the
licenses they hand out. But the government's talking about doubling
exports in the next decade. I suggest to you doubling
the hectarage or acreage of Kiwi fruits probably an easier
(33:08):
cell than doubling the dairy industry.
Speaker 7 (33:12):
Well, look big big picture of the agricultural exports, Kiwi
fruit is fourth behind dairy, sheep and beef and forestry.
I suspect that Kiwi fruit probably has the most exciting
growth growth prospects out of those four. The industry is
continuing to grow that that's largely a function of license
(33:35):
release across sun Gold, and that growth is good for
our industry and it's also good for the communities that
we're in our country. Kivy fruit is very high intensity
use of land, so a sun Gold orchard will yield
between sixty and seventy tons of fruit. The admissions per
(33:55):
kilogram of food produced are much lower than the say
deep and beef or dairy and ky fruits are high
because of the high contensity land use is a very
high employer, so tech tac tech in terms of what
New Zealand's trying to achieve with regard to growing export earnings,
improving national productivity and lowering emissions. So I'd like to
(34:20):
think that there's gross in the end. If the gross
depends on the markets, and it appears as if demand
is continuing to increase for qu fruit around the world, will.
Speaker 2 (34:32):
That growth for Zesbury be in New Zealand or will
it be in the Northern Hemisphere.
Speaker 7 (34:37):
But if both Zespres just got an approval late last
year to expand its offshore supply of kivy fruit, so
that that's going to increase by about four hundred hectares
a year for the next seven or so years, I think,
and Desperate also indicated that it's going to release approxim
(35:00):
at least four hundred HEC years a year of su
gold license for the foreseeable future as well, so growth
in both hemispheres.
Speaker 2 (35:07):
To answer your question, at the height of the COVID
property frenzy, we were seeing Kiwi fruit auctions going for
two million dollars per canopy. Heck, there is that happening again.
Speaker 7 (35:19):
No, and that was that was slightly artificial. You similar
to many a set classes, really low interest rates and
just a frenzy of buying. So values have certainly come
back from that level, but I'd argue they were never
really at that level other than for a handful of sales.
(35:41):
What we've seen is prices come down from that level.
But over the last twelve months or so the normalized
and I suspect they're probably going to start to increase,
and that's the function of interest rates coming down. With
twenty twenty two and twenty three were quite tough growing seasons,
but last year and this year are very good ones,
(36:04):
and we have a ready supply of labor. Obviously, in
the COVID days, the borders were shut in our industry
is heavily reliant on offshore labor because of the seasonal
nature of the work. And so we're borders open. We're
back to a more normal playing field.
Speaker 2 (36:21):
Good on your dominic Jones from Origin Capital Partners, Key
we Fruit. It's an absolute superfood. It must have a
wonderful future. Thanks for your time, pleasure, Thanks Jammy Okay
wrapping the country, and we'll leave the final word to
(36:41):
special guest in the studio, Ruwenda Duncom.
Speaker 4 (36:43):
It is wonderful to be back. Look, here's something that's
making a real difference out there on Kiwi Farms, and
it's Omya's mineral based products. And they genuinely work harder
for you. And I know what you're thinking, work harder.
How do they do that? We'll let me tell you
what makes these products different. So at the tech where
he plant Omya Prog's minerals and two extremely fine particles.
(37:04):
Now this isn't just fancy talk. These tiny particles are
highly reactive and effective in your soil. These finally prouled
minerals mean betting nutrient uptake in your soil and for
us farmers that means more bang for our fertilizer. Bark
so Omya has been talking to farmers across the country
have made the switch and they're telling them they're seeing
real results and their pasture growth. And that's the kind
(37:25):
of practical difference we're all looking for. Right, Good on
ya Omya, ask for hard work in Kelsey Proul by
Omya from your local farm supplier. You will be so
glad that you did.
Speaker 2 (37:35):
Yeah, and good on your Rory McElroy, good excuse to
play some Irish music? What happened to all the boy bands?
That's what I'm going to ponder over the next day
or two. Leave you in the capable hands of Rowena.
Speaker 1 (37:53):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie McGue. Thanks to Bread and You're specialist
in John de Machinery
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to Brent, You're specialist in
John Deer construction equipment.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
Where you go, Muy, get a New Zealand and Welcome
(00:42):
to the Country. Ronan Keening Irish Keening. Let's try Keating
Irish music. Boy's own love boy bands for Rory McElroy
getting the business done, getting the business done at the
Masters and winning me fifty dollars from Sam Owen for
the IHC carf and Rural Scheme. There we go. Rory
(01:02):
finally came through. More about that later, but we're going
to kick off the show with a big boy band
fan from the late nineties. Phil Duncan our weather man
and surprise surprise, we've got none settled easter in store.
But the good news will it be the ultimate drought
breaker for the dry regions, especially of the North Island.
(01:24):
And if you're traveling, do you need to be weary?
Phil Duncan on the weather. We're going to catch up
with David Seymour. He's been in the naughty chair with
his treaty Principal's Bill, but he takes over the Deputy
Prime Ministership at the end of May. Does that mean
that he has to be nice and Winston can run
a mark. We've already seen Winston criticizing the Prime Minister
(01:47):
in the past week. We're going to have a look
at the state of the red meat industry with Tom
Young out of AFCO. He's based in Hawks Bay. They
tell me they're getting pretty dry there. And Dominic Jones
from Origin Capital Partners, one of the other great six
these stories this year and the primary sector near record
returns for kiwi fruit and a great harvest is happening.
(02:08):
But Phil Duncan, I've run out o ronan keating. Well,
there he goes, but I'll head to you. How big
a storm is this going to be this easter? It's
not going to be another Waheno storm? Is it?
Speaker 3 (02:19):
Gooday? No, it's not. But it is a nasty looking
storm at the moment. It's up in the tropics, right
over Vanawatu, and it's not a storm up there. It's
a tropical depression. It's got a moderate chance of becoming
a cyclone, but it probably won't become a tropical cyclone
because it's heading southwards and so it runs out of
the tropical conditions. To make it form, but then it
(02:40):
runs into You mentioned the Wahini. The reason why that
was interesting was because when that formed, we had an
x cyclone mixing with a cold front. In this case,
we've got a low pressure system coming down and mixing
with colder air. So it is going to see that
low deepen. But part of the reason we're going to
see such heavy rain and strong winds is actually due
to pressure that is exiting the country and looming out
(03:04):
and it slows down the rain, so therefore it lifts
up the totals and it encourages a squash zone between
those two air pressure systems. So we've got a lot
of strong northeasterlyes coming through, especially Wednesday and Thursday. For
the top half of the North Island. We're damaging winds
along with that heavy rain. I possible likely exactly.
Speaker 2 (03:22):
Okay, Well, the good news will be for the North
Island if they can get some meaningful rain and bake
a break that I'm having a shock of today, break
the back of the drought. And I'm looking at the
Kneewa map and I'm going to come back to the
we're in the METS service. Well, the South Island's just
about totally clear.
Speaker 3 (03:38):
It's good now, yes, and we've still got parts of
the North Island that are dry. And so the rain
that we had on April third and fourth, which was
very good rain and helped a lot of those dry
and drought regions, but it wasn't enough to sort of declare, oh,
that's the drought's over. I'm hostly after this event we
are in a position to say I don't think we've
got a drought anymore, but we'll have to and see.
(04:00):
But at this stage, it looks as though many of
those dry areas are going to the decent bit of
rain at the end of the week or middle to
later part of the week, followed by thunderstorms and showers
going into the weekend as well, which will bring another
burst of release. But at the same time, the second
half of the Easter weekend looks a lot more settled
for those that are gone away and making the most
of it.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
Yeah, travelers, well that's good news for the travelers. Just
going back in time, well, Haney, what year was that,
I'm going to go with nineteen sixty eight, am.
Speaker 3 (04:28):
I was going to say sixty eight as well.
Speaker 2 (04:30):
Let's go with Easter nineteen sixty eight. There's so many
interesting stories around this tragic event, and yeah, I'm getting
the thumbs up from my fill and producer. More about
her in a moment. So Easter nineteen sixty eight was
one of the biggest storms ever in New Zealand.
Speaker 3 (04:46):
It was that it produced a I believe the strongest
wind recorded, or at least the strongest in one of
our main centers, which was I think around three hundred
kilometers an hour of Wellington, which is just phenomenal. And
the air pressure was very low as well, down to
the nine sixty with that center of that storm. So
that was a that was a big system. That's nothing
like what we've got coming through here. But this storm
(05:08):
does have the potential because of what happened the last
time when these tropical systems merged with cold air, especially
in the month of April. It's a bit of an
explosive months when it comes to these sorts of weather systems.
So it's worth keeping a very close eye on Thursday's
travel plans may be changing because I think there could
be some flights canceled and certainly delayed, and maybe some
(05:28):
roads closed as well. So Thursday Friday night, so Thursday,
Thursday night Friday morning could be sort of a bit
of a main risk time.
Speaker 2 (05:35):
For warned is forearmed. Okay, Phil, met service is going
to be merged or taken over by NEE where you've
been banging on about this incessantly, Phil, incessantly for years.
Happy days for you.
Speaker 3 (05:50):
Sort of it's we'll wait and see. It's a detail.
You know that it's in the detail and that's what
we've got to see. Yet coming through the ministers can't
answer really what's going to happen next, how it's going
to look, so until we see that. If it's still
the same Kneewa management running things, I think that's a problem.
But if it's new management or the met Service management
(06:10):
sort of still running the weather side of things, I
think that's a good thing. But the most critical thing
is open data. If we don't get that, government agencies
are still going to have to keep being either blocked
from accessing data that we've all paid for or they
have to pay double triple again for it. So I
hope that the government does actually change up and freshen
up the management.
Speaker 2 (06:30):
Have we had massive duplication when it comes to our
weather forecasting services, and I know that they are doing
sort of different jobs, but six hundred at NEEWA three
hundred of the met service.
Speaker 3 (06:42):
The bottom is they don't NEEWA won't actually be transparent
about what they're doing under OIA, through the Herald, through us,
through the listener, and so no one really knows. There's
such a huge or black black cloud if you like
hanging over knew weather, what it cost, why it was done,
all that sort of stuff. I think there's a really
good opportunity to come from this to match the rest
(07:02):
of the modern world. But if we still keep it
as the old boys Club as it is now, then
I don't think much will change other than a logo
and some of you paint.
Speaker 2 (07:09):
Okay, Phil Duncan, thank you very much for the time.
I've got a special guest in the studio. She's down
here for a few days helping out. Over the next
few days we've got to weeb it on. It would
be fair to say here at the Country Rowena Duncan.
I know at one stage, Phil, you fancied changing the
M to an end and getting into a Duncan, But
off she's off the table now because our andy's in
(07:30):
a domestic situation with Rowena. But good to see you
in the studio. Sorry to tease you and Phil, but
I've done it for years, so why not continue, I know, and.
Speaker 4 (07:38):
You'll notice that Phel's actually hung up. Phil gone, Yeah,
he's gone.
Speaker 2 (07:42):
He didn't even stay for the bite. Good afternoon, it's
just you. Well, thank you very much, because the next
few days are kind of going to be busy. Hang on,
hang on, how I'll turn your mic on?
Speaker 4 (07:54):
Sorry myself now, just quickly on the way, Hay. Next
film obviously tend to Wakeful nineteen sixty eight. My grandparents
they lost all their straw, They lost all their trees,
the chimney, the chuck house, lots of wallpaper fell off
the walls because the scrim got wet in a heap
of houses. So this was at Ratana. They were farming
the Waipoo there and a lot of houses on the
(08:15):
beach road actually lost all their roots. So that's how
far away from Wellington they were. It was at Ratana,
between Wonganoy and Palmerston North. In that much damage.
Speaker 2 (08:23):
Well, I think my Wahene story beats yours. My great
uncle and aunt Elan mart they were effectively my grandparents
because my grandparents died when I was young. They they
got the double. They were such slow, terrible drivers. It
must run in the family. Although I'm not a slow driver,
I'm a terrible drive.
Speaker 5 (08:41):
There.
Speaker 2 (08:41):
Yeah, they were so slow that they couldn't get their
fairy connection to get on the Wahena.
Speaker 4 (08:46):
So they dodged.
Speaker 2 (08:47):
They dodged a bullet there because they were quite elderly
back then. But they also same deal, they missed their
train connection.
Speaker 4 (08:56):
I don't tell that this is on Christmas Eve.
Speaker 2 (08:58):
The tongue of wire rail is asked Elan mart amazing
great uncle and aunt dodging bullets. So there you go. Hey,
good to have you in the studio Row. I think
Michelle will be back tomorrow, looking forward to that. What
we're going to do now is catch up with David
Seymour before the end of the our Tom Young from
(09:19):
AFCO on Red Meat. She it's been a good story
this year, as has Kiwi Fruit, Dominic Jones on that one,
and of course we're playing Irish music from Ronan keating
for Rory. How good was that?
Speaker 4 (09:32):
Oh amazing? It was so up and down as you
say a roller coach.
Speaker 2 (09:37):
He played a shot on the par five number thirteen
that a thirty six handicapper wouldn't even want to admit to.
It's amazing and yet he can be so brilliant. I'm
pleased he won because I think if he couldn't have
closed this one out, he would be destroyed and that
would be the end of his major's career. Anyhow, Rory McElroy,
well done. How do we collect on him? But more importantly,
(09:58):
thank you Sam in the IHC calf and rural scheme
as better after the tune of fifty dollars. I want
to see a receipt for that too, Sam. And what
was he thinking with Victor Hovland.
Speaker 4 (10:09):
I have no idea. I've got no under what Sam's
thinking most of the.
Speaker 2 (10:14):
Yeah, I think it was a rush of blood at
the South Island Airy event. Anyhow, up next on the Country,
it's David Seymour. David Seymour is the act Party leader.
(10:34):
Come the thirty first of May, he'll be the Deputy
Prime Minister. Today we're going to talk about trade, the Treaty,
inflation and Willie Jackson. I'm not quite sure how we
tie all that in, but I want to start with
the Deputy Prime Minister position, David Seymour, has Winston already
started jostling for petition for positions? Should I say condemning
hysterical language to quote him are used by Luxon and
(10:57):
Trump trade tariff tour or is this just a beat
up by the media.
Speaker 6 (11:04):
Well, I don't have a good idea of what is
going on with the two of them. They're The only
thing I would say is that it's generally accepted and
respected that the Prime Minister is always the de facto
foreign minister and when it comes to relationships with other countries,
(11:27):
whatever differences we may have within New zealand And, I
think we should have more debate about the future of
our country, but that's internal when we're front up to
the rest of the world. Doesn't matter if your national
labor communist at party. We're all on Team New Zealand.
Speaker 2 (11:44):
I thought you were suggesting the Act Party was Communist.
There for a moment, David, I may have misurgd you.
Now is this all about you being a naughty boy
in your eighteen months as not being Deputy PM, annoying
the hell out of the Prime Minister with your treaties
principles And now that Winston's nearly finished, and he's been
on his best behavior, and everyone universally is saying he's
(12:06):
done a good job as our trade minister. Is Winston
going to be the naughty boy?
Speaker 6 (12:11):
Well he's not the Trade Minister, as the Foreign Affairs
sorry minister. And you know, I think it's a shame
that people say that because the Treaty Principal's Bill, you know,
putting to the heart of our country's constitution. Are we
equal or are we not to have that dismissed as
being quote unquote naughty. I think is really a sign
(12:34):
of why we find it so hard to solve problems
in this country.
Speaker 2 (12:38):
David, you had three hundred thousand submissions. The previous record
was one hundred ninety percent opposing it. And I know
that you're appeasing your constituency, but sometimes are sleeping dogs
best left to lie?
Speaker 7 (12:52):
No.
Speaker 6 (12:53):
A couple of things. First of all, anyone who thinks
Select Committee submissions are indicator of public opinion need only
look at the end of life choice or abortion. In
both cases and eighty percent of submissions were opposed, and
yet the public overwhelmingly supported those law changes. Why is
that happening? Because whenever you put up an issue, people
(13:16):
come and object. If they don't like it, they're less
likely to submit on something that they actually support. That's
just a fact of life. Well, the number that's submitted
on treaty principles, I think shows that people do know
the question of what our treaty means matters to our country.
If you want to be able to do resource consents,
run local government, do education and health, everything is harder
(13:40):
when we're constantly divided by when our ancestors arrive so
far from being naughty or annoying, it's extra one has
to have be able to us.
Speaker 2 (13:51):
I'm over the Treaty Principle's bill. Now a poll out
suggesting something that we already knew. The cost of living
is still the biggest concern in this country. Supposedly, new
data duwe out this week will show inflation has risen
for the first time in about two or three years.
But there is a solution, David Seymour, it's sitting right
(14:11):
in front of your nose, and Willie Jackson was smart
enough to realize this. All you need to do is
take the gst off meat.
Speaker 6 (14:21):
Well, we're start. I mean, first of all, I'm a
big fan of GDP Live. If you haven't checked it out,
try googling it. It's a guy called Christoph Schumacher at
MESSI and he takes real time data every day from
a whole lot of businesses to get a sense of
where GDP and inflation are at. Rather than waiting three
(14:43):
months for Statistics New Zealand to tell us what it
was doing two months ago, you can get it in
real time, so GDP Live And unfortunately I just looked
at it before this interview. In November, inflation was down
to two point zero three. Now it's up to two
point four to two according to this very precise real
time measures. So that would tell you that, you know,
(15:03):
when Stats New Zealand gets around to it, they two
are going to say GDP sorry, inflation has started rising again,
and that is a real concern. There's no question that
people have been doing it tough for a long time.
We crushed inflation down to two point two in the
official record, peers to have gotten a new lease of life.
All I can say is that you know, there's things
(15:24):
you can control, there's things you can't. We can't control
the Americans, we can't control global trade. What we can
control is red tape and government waste and spending. So
all Act brings to the table is less less red
tape and less the government waste. Freeze people up to
be productive now when you and that means you've got
more goods for the amount of money, and that means
(15:44):
slower prices and better lives. So that's all we can do,
and that's exactly what we are doing right across the board.
I won't give you the whole gamut of red tape
cutting we're doing, but you know, people know it's a lot.
When it comes to Willie Jackson, I mean, what can
you say? I mean, you know it texts me all
the time, but he never fronted up to debate me.
(16:05):
When TV three offered him the chance to debate me
on treaty principles, he had a whole year to ask
me questions about it.
Speaker 5 (16:11):
In the house.
Speaker 6 (16:12):
He asked me one question and he got annihilated so
badly that when we put it on YouTube, eighty thousand
people watched him get annihilated asking me a question. Now
he pops up saying he wants to take gest off meat. Well,
here's a few things. One is that the GST savings
will go probably about half, maybe more to the supermarkets
who are selling it, rather than to the consumer. The
(16:35):
money that gets saved by the consumer we'll get mostly
of people buying I Phillips, not to people buying mints,
because they'll get a bigger GST discount. It's a dream
for a tax account, and it's not a dream for
if you've got to pay them, and the people paying
the will be the consumer. So it's just about impossible
to think of a stupid, more complicated, less effective pollupsy
(16:58):
than gest off meat if you want to help struggling families. However,
it's just about impossible to think of a stupid a
politician than Willy get Oh right.
Speaker 2 (17:06):
Well we'll leave it at that. David Seymour in the
naughty chair, but he's about to move to the responsible
chair at the end of May. Thanks for your time
on the Country, David.
Speaker 7 (17:17):
No worry, Janie.
Speaker 2 (17:18):
It is twenty seven, make that twenty eight. After twelve
year with the Country brought to you by Brent, we're
going to take a break. We're going to update rural
news with Rowena. Good to have her in the studio
and also sports news for you if you haven't caught
up with it. The big story of the day Rory
McElroy becoming the sixth man to complete a professional Grand
(17:41):
Slam of Majores. He tried his hardest along the way
to blow it. I thought I was a choker. I
think Rory is just about as bad as me. He's
a lot better golfer than me, obviously, but he's going
to look back on that and think what was I thinking? Anyhow?
Up next, the state of the red meat industry. It's
been a real success story this year in the primary sector.
(18:03):
Plus we're going to have a look at kiwi fruit.
It's going great guns as well. We're getting well through
the harvest season. Tom Yng on red meat, Dominic Jones
on kiwi fruit as we play good Irish songs. One
(18:32):
of the great success stories of the primary sector this
season has been red meat well above expectations. But how
much of a threat is Trump and as tariffs? Let's
find out what's happening on the ground at the coal face.
Tom Young is afco's National Livestock Manager. Tom how much
of the ten percent tariff is going to be paid
(18:53):
for ultimately? Are by New Zealand farmers? Good afternoon, By
the way, yeah, yeah.
Speaker 5 (18:59):
Hi Jamie. Look, we start out with the intention of
making the Americans pay the tariff themselves, so we just
we held onto our pricing at pre tariff levels I
guess for a bit. But we have seen in the
last few days or I guess a week or so,
we've seen probably the Australians of clawback five percent, so
(19:19):
half the teriff value. But it still works. Okay, Like
we're still keep you where we're sitting, and we don't
think at this point in time it's going to have
any adverse effect on schedules, so we're comfortable with it.
Speaker 2 (19:31):
Okay, that's the US. What about our biggest market, our
biggest trading partner, not for red meat, that's the US currently,
but China. There's going to be a lot of collateral
damage out of this trade war. It's going to affect
the Chinese economy ultimately that's got to affect us.
Speaker 5 (19:48):
Yeah, yeah, I guess you're right. I mean what we
have seen, or what I can coming on now is
we've seen a huge amount of demand come out of
China in the last week or two. So there have
been some sort of some big players talking to us,
questioning us whether they can have big volumes of meat,
and I'm talking hundreds of loads of meat, and we
don't have the product. So obviously we're going into the
(20:11):
time of the year we were shortening up on product capacity,
starting to get backed off, but we simply don't have
a heavy amount of meat that the demand is therefore
coming out of China. So they sort of come out
of nowhere and they're sort of building it up and
they're desperate to get some product.
Speaker 2 (20:27):
Now I see an Aussie analyst I've just forgotten as name,
you might better fill in the missing pieces for me,
said that Lamb's going to be ten bucks of quilo.
Happy days.
Speaker 5 (20:38):
Yeah, happy days. I mean I think his name was
Simon Cruelty and I mean nice to say, but probably
doesn't really help New Zealand and the drives the price
of stores stock mad and can probably put expectations in
people's heads that might not be there. I think my
personal view is if you had a if you had
a prediction from a large company in New Zealand, a
(21:01):
red meat company, and they said, look, we think it
might get to this level, it's a bit more sort
of believable than a third party. He has no sort
of vest of interest in the New Zealand red meat sector.
Speaker 2 (21:12):
So we're getting near the end of the season. We're
all scrambling, or you guys are scrambling to supply enough
meat to these markets the US and China which just
can't seem to get enough of it at the moment.
Do you know what that sings out to me, Tom Young?
Procurement war.
Speaker 5 (21:29):
Yeah, everyone talks about a procurement war. I think it's
it's already super competitive. There's enough people looking to buy
red meat in New Zealand and processes that you're never
not going to get a competitive price week on week
at any time of the year. I guess in the
middle of winter, late winter, you'll see some pressure on
the price. You know that we're a long way through
(21:50):
the Lamb cooll now beef and Lamb took the land
call sort of back a million lambs, so there's no
doubt we're going to have a shortage and all that
procurement war. I don't know. I think everyone and puts
the beast foot forward now with a contract or a price,
a weekly spot price, and does the best to sort
of buy some lambs there going broke. So yeah, our
view will always be to have a competitive price, but
(22:13):
we're not going to take it to a level where
we don't exist in a year or two time.
Speaker 2 (22:17):
A sheep farm is ultimately going to win by being
the last man standing. If you've still got a sheep
farm and you're raising some lamb, if the pine trees
haven't invaded your sheep farm already, there's going to be
so few that they're going to be worth a fortune.
Speaker 5 (22:32):
Well, I mean they've rebounded. The price is rebounded massively,
has it in the last six seven eight months?
Speaker 6 (22:38):
So?
Speaker 5 (22:39):
But it's always been a psychical business, hasn't it. Read meat,
it goes up, it goes down. It's no different dairy farming.
I think if you've got a farm and you've got
a good system, and you've got a way of farming
and that works, you know, whatever your percentage of sheep
to cattle at, you need to stick with it. I
think people that change stock classes and dive in and
out of markets and try and find Elderado or Pennessee
(23:02):
somewhere generally come unglued. And the people that stick with
a good policy tend to come out of it on
a five year average and a better position than those
are in and out of different classes to stop.
Speaker 2 (23:12):
We've heard how the US is going to take several
years more than one to build up the beef. Does
that mean that like beef prices for the next few years,
tearaffs aside are going to be strong.
Speaker 5 (23:24):
Well, you think so, wouldn't you. But I mean we
have seen times when you know, South America can turn
up with a lot of beef too out of nowhere.
So logically you'd say, if there's a global shortage of
price will be held up. But you know, there have
been times when we've seen that shortage has been shortened
in a hurry and all of a sudden, countries have
(23:45):
found a lot of beef that probably people haven't expected either.
So I would say, you know, looking out over the
next next six to twelve months, probably pretty healthy pricing,
Pretty hard to see too much past. Then I would
have thought, let's.
Speaker 2 (23:59):
Just finish on weather and track conditions as I like
to call them, around the country. We know them. We
know the North Island's been particularly dry, the west part
of it, the dry part of it has received some
useful rain. You guys on the east coast and Hawk's
Bay where you're based have fared much better. But you've
headed into a typically dry autumn.
Speaker 5 (24:19):
Yeah, we have, so we're probably a little bit too
dry now. But hopefully this Wednesday and Thursday is sort
of fifty tow one hundred miles predicted with the black
so that it will turn us a round if it
does arrive.
Speaker 2 (24:31):
It's called easter, Tom. It's a rain maker and a windmaker.
Speaker 5 (24:35):
That's right.
Speaker 2 (24:36):
He thank you very much for some of your time
today as the national livestock manager for Rathco onwards and
upwards for the meat prices bugger.
Speaker 5 (24:44):
Truck let's hope say wonderful Thanks Jamie.
Speaker 2 (24:48):
Good on you, Tom, Thanks for joining us today on
the country. Up next, we're going to take We're taking
a break and then Rowena Duncan with the latest and
aurural news. I'll update sports news for you and Rory's
magnificent victory at Augusta. Before the end of the hour,
we're going to segue. We're going to pivot, Rowena. Do
you like that word? Yep, Mike's not on. We're going
(25:10):
to pivot from red meat to keywed for Dom Jones,
Managing Director of Origin Capital Partners, are here again twenty
(25:32):
away from one You're with the Country brought to you
by Brandt's special guest in the studio today, and we
don't know for how long this week. It just depends
how everything pans out for us. Rowena Duncan are here
with the latest and rural news, the.
Speaker 1 (25:47):
Country's world news with Cap Cadet, New Zealand's leading right
on lawn Bower brand Visit steel Ford dot co dot
insip for your locals.
Speaker 2 (25:55):
Douggist.
Speaker 4 (25:56):
Honestly, Jamie listening to NFL talk about the weather. I'm
down here because I'm going hunting in the Maniototo over
easter and Anzac weekend, and we were just thinking it's
going to be perfect, starting to snow up there, deer
starting to roar, and then the rain's going to come through.
It's going to be interesting.
Speaker 2 (26:10):
I don't care. I don't care about your boring shooting
stories for Arena all. I just want the venuson. Yeah,
because you are house sitting for me or blunching at
our house. So I actually you got to pay the way.
There's no such thing as a free lunch. You and
your mate and the mani Atto need to get me
some of that wild venison of us to die for.
Speaker 4 (26:29):
We have got a job and just looking at you, Jammie,
first time I've seen you in the flesh pretty much
apart from Wellington all this year. You've got incredible skin
for a sixty five year old. And I noticed the
headline over the week in Trump shows signs of sun
damage after frequent golf wins, Like, is that your beauty secret?
You suck at golf. You don't win very much, so
your skin's fine.
Speaker 2 (26:48):
Well, you've got me on the hot hair, but probably
unlike well, not unlike Rory, he sprays it. But I
spend a lot of time under the tree, so I
think I'm always lucky that I'm in the shade. I'm
playing most of my golf. Let's have rural.
Speaker 4 (27:02):
News, okay, Yeah. The Foundation for Arable Research has a
new CEO, Doctor Scott Champion, will take over from the
current FAR Chief Executive, Dr Allison Stewart on the first
of July.
Speaker 2 (27:12):
Now.
Speaker 4 (27:12):
Doctor Champion is the program director of the Calogg Rural
Leadership Program in former Chief executive of Beef and Land,
New Zealand and the New Zealand Meetboard. So over twenty
five years of experience in the primary sector and a
good appointment moving forward. That is your rural news. Jamie
his sport.
Speaker 1 (27:30):
Sport with AFCO Kiwi to the bone since nineteen oh four.
Speaker 2 (27:35):
Yes, Rory McElroy has become the sixth man. What a
great lot of golf as he's joining too to complete
the professional Grand Slam of Majors. The Northern Irishman's won
the Masters, defeating Justin Rose on the opening hole of
their sudden death playoff at Augusta after he missed a
relatively easy part to secure the Masters. On the eighteenth,
(27:56):
McElroy's reflected on his seventeenth tenth attempt to join the
exclusive club to win all four majors. But I don't
know how to work the audio for that, so let's
just reflect with Rory on that one and angst Angs
for Red Bulls, Max for Stapin. As McLaren returned to
the top of the podium after Formula one's Bahrain Grand Prix,
(28:19):
Oscar Piastre became the first dual winner of the season,
with the Staffin only able to muster sixth. McLaren's Constructors
Championship leader is now fifty eight points. Horol Liam Lawson
was gradually relegated should I say from thirteenth to sixteenth
after two time penalties. That is the latest and auroral
news up next. Dominic Jones on Kiwi fruit, I will run.
(28:53):
So you've heard about the prospects for red meat from
Tom Young out of a fco. Let's look at kiwi fruit.
It's huge this year. It's having a boomer of a season.
Dominic Jones is the managing director of Origin Capital Partners
Large Scale Growers. Can I call you corporates? Dom or?
Is that a naughty word?
Speaker 7 (29:13):
Jamie? Thanks having me on. You can call us whatever
you like.
Speaker 2 (29:17):
Well, I'll just call you a large scale grower. Talk
to me about the season. Let's start with this question.
How far through the harvest is the keyw fruit industry
At the moment, the read.
Speaker 7 (29:28):
Is one hundred percent done, the gold is halfway through,
and the green is about a quarter of the way through.
So the industry as a total would be about forty
to the center its harvest.
Speaker 2 (29:38):
So what part of the country goes first? And I
asked to say, for instance, does the Gisbane region harvest
before bayer plenty?
Speaker 7 (29:48):
Yes, you tend to red will be earliest, and then
you tend to get either the far north of New Zealand,
Kerry Carey or down in Gisbon being first, and when
the bar plenty comes online, and so the gold the
gold harvest has been going since the first or second
week of March. That'll run all the way through to
(30:09):
about early middle of May, whereas the green just started
a week or two ago and that'll run through to
early mid June.
Speaker 2 (30:18):
Well, let's hope someone clement read the weather around the
easter period doesn't upset the apple cut is a clever
play on words for you. Let's talk about Kiwi fruit
read is this the next big thing or is it
always just going to be a niche product.
Speaker 7 (30:33):
I suspect it will be a niche product. It's really
early days. So this year the industry will do about
two hundred and five million trades kiwi fruit and reads
about three of that, so read really early stage. It'll
be a part of the part of the offering. But
for the fulfillable future, sun Gold will certainly be the
(30:56):
largest contributor, followed by Green this year. Out of the
two hundred million odd trays one hundred and thirty to
one hundred and forty Big Gold, about sixty million will
be Green and then a little bit of red in
some organics, as can.
Speaker 2 (31:10):
We forrit Green making a bit of a comeback because
I thought a couple of years ago it was going
to be totally outmoded by the gold or is it
just the fact that there aren't enough gold licenses out
there for everyone to convert.
Speaker 7 (31:22):
Look, there's a few things happening, I guess, like most
of the primary sector, costs went up a hell of
a lot, and so for green, which is a lower
yielding in lower paying for it variety, the margins got
squeezed a lot quicker. That came at the same time.
It's just some pretty horrible growing conditions across twenty twenty two,
twenty twenty three, and so all growers got hit pretty
(31:44):
hard by that, but in particular green where it's lower margin.
But Green Green had a very good year last year.
This year is looking pretty good as well. And over
time you tend to see the total green supply decrease,
and that's growers slowly converting those orchards to gold, and
so that has a positive effect on pricing in the market. Obviously,
(32:06):
less fruit to sell, the more you get paid for it.
Speaker 2 (32:09):
I know, this is quite a big premium on for
organic product green and gold. Is it worth going organic?
Speaker 7 (32:21):
That very much depends on the grower and the orchard.
You obviously have a lot less tools than you talk it,
so the yields tend to be lower, but you do
get paid more for that fruit. In aggregate, the OGRs
per hecta are lower on organic than they are conventional,
(32:41):
but that's not to say that they're not organic growers
making very good money as well.
Speaker 2 (32:45):
Are we going to see expansion in the Kiwi fruit industry?
And I know that Zespri controls it with an iron fist,
which is good in terms of the volume and the
licenses they hand out. But the government's talking about doubling
exports in the next decade. I suggest to you doubling
the hectarage or acreage of Kiwi fruits probably an easier
(33:08):
cell than doubling the dairy industry.
Speaker 7 (33:12):
Well, look big big picture of the agricultural exports, Kiwi
fruit is fourth behind dairy, sheep and beef and forestry.
I suspect that Kiwi fruit probably has the most exciting
growth growth prospects out of those four. The industry is
continuing to grow that that's largely a function of license
(33:35):
release across sun Gold, and that growth is good for
our industry and it's also good for the communities that
we're in our country. Kivy fruit is very high intensity
use of land, so a sun Gold orchard will yield
between sixty and seventy tons of fruit. The admissions per
(33:55):
kilogram of food produced are much lower than the say
deep and beef or dairy and ky fruits are high
because of the high contensity land use is a very
high employer, so tech tac tech in terms of what
New Zealand's trying to achieve with regard to growing export earnings,
improving national productivity and lowering emissions. So I'd like to
(34:20):
think that there's gross in the end. If the gross
depends on the markets, and it appears as if demand
is continuing to increase for qu fruit around the world, will.
Speaker 2 (34:32):
That growth for Zesbury be in New Zealand or will
it be in the Northern Hemisphere.
Speaker 7 (34:37):
But if both Zespres just got an approval late last
year to expand its offshore supply of kivy fruit, so
that that's going to increase by about four hundred hectares
a year for the next seven or so years, I think,
and Desperate also indicated that it's going to release approxim
(35:00):
at least four hundred HEC years a year of su
gold license for the foreseeable future as well, so growth
in both hemispheres.
Speaker 2 (35:07):
To answer your question, at the height of the COVID
property frenzy, we were seeing Kiwi fruit auctions going for
two million dollars per canopy. Heck, there is that happening again.
Speaker 7 (35:19):
No, and that was that was slightly artificial. You similar
to many a set classes, really low interest rates and
just a frenzy of buying. So values have certainly come
back from that level, but I'd argue they were never
really at that level other than for a handful of sales.
(35:41):
What we've seen is prices come down from that level.
But over the last twelve months or so the normalized
and I suspect they're probably going to start to increase,
and that's the function of interest rates coming down. With
twenty twenty two and twenty three were quite tough growing seasons,
but last year and this year are very good ones,
(36:04):
and we have a ready supply of labor. Obviously, in
the COVID days, the borders were shut in our industry
is heavily reliant on offshore labor because of the seasonal
nature of the work. And so we're borders open. We're
back to a more normal playing field.
Speaker 2 (36:21):
Good on your dominic Jones from Origin Capital Partners, Key
we Fruit. It's an absolute superfood. It must have a
wonderful future. Thanks for your time, pleasure, Thanks Jammy Okay
wrapping the country, and we'll leave the final word to
(36:41):
special guest in the studio, Ruwenda Duncom.
Speaker 4 (36:43):
It is wonderful to be back. Look, here's something that's
making a real difference out there on Kiwi Farms, and
it's Omya's mineral based products. And they genuinely work harder
for you. And I know what you're thinking, work harder.
How do they do that? We'll let me tell you
what makes these products different. So at the tech where
he plant Omya Prog's minerals and two extremely fine particles.
(37:04):
Now this isn't just fancy talk. These tiny particles are
highly reactive and effective in your soil. These finally prouled
minerals mean betting nutrient uptake in your soil and for
us farmers that means more bang for our fertilizer. Bark
so Omya has been talking to farmers across the country
have made the switch and they're telling them they're seeing
real results and their pasture growth. And that's the kind
(37:25):
of practical difference we're all looking for. Right, Good on
ya Omya, ask for hard work in Kelsey Proul by
Omya from your local farm supplier. You will be so
glad that you did.
Speaker 2 (37:35):
Yeah, and good on your Rory McElroy, good excuse to
play some Irish music? What happened to all the boy bands?
That's what I'm going to ponder over the next day
or two. Leave you in the capable hands of Rowena.
Speaker 1 (37:53):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie McGue. Thanks to Bread and You're specialist
in John de Machinery
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