August 4, 2025 • 37 mins
Jamie Mackay talks to Nathan Guy, Cameron Bagrie, Dr Jacqueline Rowarth, and Farmer Tom Martin.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie mckaye thanks to Brent starkest of the
leading agriculture brands.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
May sound absurd. Even Heara's hair, the randomly a man
minister won't you can see even hears he the rat
to dream. It's not Easy, super be.
Speaker 3 (00:39):
Get a New Zealand and welcome to the Country. The
show is brought to you by Brand Tom Jamie McKay
fie for fighting Superman. It's not Easy. Saw the movie
last night. I might do a movie review for you
a bit later in the show, but we're going to
kick it off with a Superman of the New Zealand
Primary Sect, a former Minister of Primary Industries, current Chair
of the Meat Industry Associate and Apiculture New Zealand trouble
(01:03):
at mill for the honey industry. We're also going to
catch up with Cameron Bagri, independent economist, US tariffs dropping
the ocr this month, the unemployment rate and the threat
of stagflation. Jacqueline Roweth will join us. Are we turning
into snowflakes? I'm going to ask Jaquelin that one, and
you're going to get part two of The Farmer tirem
(01:24):
interview which is worth waiting for. We just ran out
of time to play it for your Yesterday radio. Here
we go, Nathan Guy, former Minister of Primary Industries. Do
you ever go to the movies these days?
Speaker 2 (01:34):
Nathan, No, I don't.
Speaker 4 (01:36):
I just signed up to Netflix, so probably the comfort
of the home near the log Bourners.
Speaker 5 (01:41):
But going into the movies unfortunately.
Speaker 3 (01:43):
Well, there is something about the big screen. Anyhow, I'd
give Superman a like a seven out of ten if
if you and Erica decide to go to the movies.
Speaker 4 (01:54):
Look, Topelets is not listening.
Speaker 3 (01:58):
I hope it could be date night for you. Spice
things up a bit, Nathan.
Speaker 4 (02:04):
Yeah, did you get a chop bomb and some popcorn?
Speaker 5 (02:07):
Jmie?
Speaker 3 (02:07):
Or no, No, not the popcorn, but always by the
chocolate ice cream. It's an essential. Anyhow, let's get on
to the issues of the day. Putting on first, I
guess your Meat Industry Association hat how badly are these
and we're going to get Cameron Bagrii's take on this
one as well. But how badly are these tariffs going
from ten to fifteen percent going to affect our red
(02:31):
meat industry? It's estimated to cost US three hundred million
or three hundred extra million.
Speaker 4 (02:38):
Will have an impact because ten percent has been passed
on by and large right through to consumers. This one
is going to be more problematic the extra five percent.
It doesn't sound like a lot, but the reality is
be a hell of an arm wrestle with importers. So unfortunately,
it is going to be a bit of a pain
(02:58):
point for our red meat set during. In fact, all
those exporting up into the US. It feels to me, Jamie,
like fifteen percent might be here for a while. I
think we can hope for the best, but I think
we need to prepare for it. To hang around on.
Pleased that Van gallis, our top trade official, is up
(03:18):
there now, and I believe Minister McClay is going to
be heading up shortly.
Speaker 3 (03:23):
Yeah, but hang on, Nathan, we're a pimple on the
backside of America or the American economy. We can go
and plead our case for all we're worth. But Trump
ain't kind of listen.
Speaker 5 (03:34):
Now.
Speaker 4 (03:35):
Apparently he just sat down and looked, you know, who
had a trade surplus. We were, unfortunately there with thirty
seven other countries. I don't think there's anything really that
we could.
Speaker 6 (03:45):
Have done to avoid that.
Speaker 4 (03:47):
We have to just deal with the cards that are
dealt to us, and unfortunately fifteen percent, as I say,
it feels like it's going to be hanging around for
a while. But we also need to wait and see
what comes out of these meetings happening in Washington and
when Minister McLay gets up there shortly.
Speaker 3 (04:04):
But I think one of the worrying issues for US
is the fact that one of our main competitors in
terms of putting red meat into the American market, Australia,
sitting at ten percent.
Speaker 4 (04:15):
Yes, that is a concern. Of course, they have got
an FDA free trade agreement, but they've still got a
ten percent tariff. So there's other countries that have negotiated
with President Trump in his last term, Canada, Mexico, and China.
They all got deals, but they're all back on the
table now for renegotiation. So there's a lot of uncertainty.
(04:36):
If this does push through into consumers and they feel
it in their back pocket, it might be that these
could be reviewed. So never say never, Jamie Well, I.
Speaker 3 (04:46):
Guess the good news part of the story is Nathan Guy.
The Americans still can't get enough of our red meat,
especially our beef our grinding beef.
Speaker 4 (04:55):
Oh yes, j important Low is their bug count Ours
is frozen and there's is a whole lot of fatty
product that goes into the hamburger market. And we've got
a great reputation. So if burger prices go up and
the average America needs three a week, they might just
find that these tariffs are impacting them out of all
(05:17):
the burger chains. So we just got to wait and see.
I think calm heads will prevail and see what these
high level meetings in Washington may or may not deliver.
Speaker 3 (05:26):
It along the way to deal to recapitalize the Alliance
group appears to be close. The Irish Times reported over
the weekend that Dawn Meats are set to stump up
with two hundred and seventy million for a seventy percent
stake in the Alliance, which was well, it still is
are only fully one hundred percent owned cooperative meat company
(05:50):
in this country. So is the Alliance groups are gone
as far as the co op goes obviously.
Speaker 4 (05:56):
Well that's certainly the way it reads. I read that
article as well. Jmen an Alliance aren't saying anything. I
think there's a meeting coming up in a couple of
weeks time, so we'll all find out. What I do
hope is that we get a bit more certainty in
the red meat sector. Okay, we're talking about global uncertainty.
On one hand, it'd be quite good to get this
(06:17):
sort of if it is indeed who you speculating, or
who the article speculated to be first cab off the
rank and going to take a reasonable chunk of Alliance,
I just think, well, if it stacks up and farmers
vote for it, let's get on with it. We need
structural certainty in this industry, not people looking over their shoulders.
Speaker 3 (06:40):
Hey, when I was preparing recently for a funeral eulogy
of an old mate of mine, we've came up with
this wonderful picture of him and John Key. He wasn't
a sur in those days, and a farm paddick in Riversdale.
The year is two thousand and nine and the talkers
John Key's talking it up of a mega merger between
the Alliance group and so for fern farms. Is it
(07:01):
a real shame that that didn't happen.
Speaker 4 (07:05):
I'm not sure you know the meat industry excellence. They
came to me they had a plan. I sat in
the meeting with John Ke at one stage and he said, well,
if you bring the two chairs and the two chief
executives in here to talk, we'll listen. But that never eventuated.
So history as the saying I never repeats itself, but
(07:28):
in this case it is repeating itself. I just hope
that we can get some positive momentum in the red
meat sector. This has been a bit of a cloud
of alliance for a year or two now, and farmers
need certainty make sure that their stock's going to be processed,
they're going to get well paid, and I hope for
the best for reliance.
Speaker 3 (07:49):
Hey, Nathan, I look at the two most successful primary
sectors at the moment, and that would have to be
dairy and Kiwi fruit. And I look at Fonterra allbit
it doesn't It controls about eighty percent of the market,
just under eighty. And then I look at Zespriy what
they're doing with single desk selling, and I think they've
got a better structure than the red meat industry.
Speaker 4 (08:09):
Well, there's Fronterra with a fantastic cop hugely successful. Had
a bit of a bumpy ride but certainly hit its
straps under Miles Hurrel and new board leadership, so doing
fantastically well. Zesbury very lucky to get the single desk.
Some think that there should be some sort of mega
merger with meat companies. I don't think that'll ever happen.
(08:33):
There might be collaboration in the background, but when you
think about it as Chinese investment, this Japanese investment, there's
a private investment into the red meat sector. So I
think any talk of Omega merger is probably unrealistic. But
there is opportunities for companies to collaborate in what I've
seen and heard that starting to happen.
Speaker 3 (08:55):
Nathan guy with Us a former Minister of Primary Industry's
current chair of the Meat Industry Associate Ocean, also current
share of apriculture in zed. Put on your honey hat, Nathan.
The industry is struggling.
Speaker 4 (09:10):
There's a struggle. The reality is that there's still a
bit of a stockpile that's got to work its way
through from pre COVID levels. So that's unfortunate. The moment
that moves through and we get a bit more positivity
in the market on the back of COVID and these
economies are starting to crank a little bit. There are
(09:32):
a few green shirts, and we know that Manuka is
hugely successful, an amazing product, natural taste, its multi purpose,
goes into nutraceuticals, pharmaceuticals, high value products, you name it.
So we know it's a real success. And we've got
to get alignment, which is I'm trying to help the
(09:52):
honey sector to get alignment, to try and move the
politics out of the way so that we can work
constructive together with bee keepers right through the supply chain.
Speaker 3 (10:03):
Nathan guy, thanks for your time today in the country.
As I said, date night with Erica, you won't go
to Superman, you won't regret it.
Speaker 4 (10:10):
Good on you, Jamie, have a good date.
Speaker 2 (10:12):
There we go.
Speaker 3 (10:13):
Thanks Nathan. It is seventeen after twelve. You are with
the country. I see on amongs you. Rotten Tomatoes is
not a great gauge I reckon for movies these days,
because you get classic movies like Rambo two, one of
the greatest movies ever made and probably doesn't rate that
well on Rotten Tomatoes, but you know, the cinematic merit
(10:36):
of that movie is or cannot be overstated. Such great acting.
Sylvester stallone, wiping out the entire Vetcolong Army himself. Anyhow, Hey,
up next it is Cameron Bagriy. Lots of economic stuff
happening out there, will get his take on the tariffs.
We've also got an OCR announcement coming up on August twenty.
(10:58):
See I'm with John Key on this one on one
hundred basis points and kickstart the economy. We'll see what
a proper economist says about that. And tomorrow we get
the unemployment figures. They're not going to be great. Everyone
or the market is suggesting five point three percent. What
might that mean for the New Zealand economy? Are we
in danger of stagflation? Cameron Baggory up next.
Speaker 2 (11:21):
So.
Speaker 3 (11:34):
Cameron Bagory is an independent economist. Lots to talk about
at the moment. We've got tariffs announced last Friday, OCR
to be announced the next cut hopefully on August the twentieth,
and tomorrow unemployment figures are due to come out. Cameron,
let's start with tariffs. How badly is this going to
(11:54):
affect the New Zealand economy? Going from ten to fifteen percent?
Speaker 7 (11:59):
Not to marginal week I guess you can look at
it through two lenses in thet probably three lessons and
just look the number one. While we went from ten
to fifteen, there's a little of it beyond me. Secondly,
if you look at ten or fifteen, it's a hell
of a lot lower and what we're seeing across the
whole lot of other countries. So we can probably take
a little bit of deep press. So I think, well,
(12:20):
it wasn't that bad is what we've seen in the
lots of Brazil. But yeah, firteen percent is still fifteen percent,
and that makes you less competitive, although in a relative sense,
our beef bang into the United States is going to
be a hell of a lot more competitive than the
locks of the Brazilian products, Yeah, but.
Speaker 3 (12:36):
Not as competitive as the Aussie beef.
Speaker 4 (12:39):
Yeah.
Speaker 7 (12:39):
And that's the one that I guess surprises us. Why
Australia got ten and we got fifteen. Maybe it's because
Australia is going to buy a whole lot more stuff
lost the United States military equipment, etc. Et cetera. You know,
they just got a bigger chip book.
Speaker 3 (12:54):
Well, they run a trade deficit with the US, whereas
we don't. We're almost even stevens. But you would think
Trump splitting here is a wee bit on that one.
Speaker 7 (13:04):
Yeah, well that's what the science behind this makes no sense.
In fact, the economics behind while we're going around shving
tariff on various countries around the globe is pretty marginal.
But what we know is that we now live in
an environment or a system where what's called power there's
now challenging rules and a power based system faces the
(13:27):
big boys and the big countries and America's big and
went on.
Speaker 3 (13:33):
Could this drive the world economy into a like a
global recession or am I being two glass half full?
Speaker 7 (13:39):
There?
Speaker 5 (13:41):
No, there is that risk.
Speaker 7 (13:42):
And if you have a look at the OECD's latest projections,
if you ever look at the IMS latest projections, that
they're projecting the world to grow around three percent for
the next couple of years, which it face fairly sounds
pretty good. That You've got to remember the world economy
and a lot of levels is driven by a the
United States to be, a whole lot of emerging market economies,
(14:02):
and India growing at six year after year.
Speaker 5 (14:05):
That's the stuff.
Speaker 7 (14:06):
Three percent. It's hoh hum. But if you read into
what the OECD and IOME have said, it's got CAVM
to or written all over it e by be aware
in terms of the numbers, because the risk are to
the down side.
Speaker 3 (14:21):
Now Tom mcclay's going to jump on a plane fly
over to Washington. Do is damn justin good on him
to try and get us a better deal. He's peeing
into the northwestern right.
Speaker 7 (14:30):
I'd say so yeah, but yeah, fay my hat after Tidde.
He has been doing a remarkably good job, along with
a whole lot of the other ministers, putting New Zealand
back on the map in regard to international create and
there is growing hope there's going to be some sort
of deal between New zeal And India Twenda before the
end of the year. But I had tip to hard
work and hopefully we're going to see a bit of payoff.
(14:51):
But Americans now, I think there's just things written in
his oone.
Speaker 3 (14:55):
Don't want to put my economic mind against yours, Cameron
baggery bet, I do want your opinion on this one. See,
I think the best thing we could do in this
country has dropped the official cash rate, and drop it quickly.
I know we're going to get one on August the twentieth.
But you've got guys like John Key running around saying
we need to cut one hundred basis points.
Speaker 7 (15:13):
What say you, Oh, look, I think the reserve banks
got another one, maybe two up their sleeve. The economy
bounced out of a recession. The end of twenty twenty
four were a decent quarter. The start of two and
twenty five. It looks so we've done, David Long and
now stop for a cup of tea. You know, the
rural sector's been doing a lot of the heavy lifting
(15:35):
over this last sort of sixty nine months to get
the economy back on the feet. You'd sort of expect
that the impact of lower interest rates by the housing
market the construction sector would start to flow and we
get that sort of second round, you get more propulsion.
We're not seeing that at the moment. Why because the
fundamental is towards housing. The construction look good at the
(15:55):
moment in regard to population growth, that's demand relative to
what there in the market. We've still got these structural problems.
I had to the government an announcement that came out
in regard to dropping NCEO getting stuck into the education sector.
We need to fix the roads. Those sort of things
are just inhibited. They're like a rugby player that's carrying
an injury, and you're carrying an injury, you're not going
(16:17):
to get top performance in the Zealand economy at the moment. Unfortunately,
it's carrying a whole lot of structural injuries and the
re zum band can't fix those. You dropping interest rates
as a sugar rust, and you've got to be careful
about how much sugar that you pump into the economic
system because it can put you up on a bit
of an artificial high.
Speaker 3 (16:35):
So three point twenty five percent at the moment, you're
suggesting two point seventy five at best.
Speaker 7 (16:42):
Well, at best subject to what's going on around the
globe now, the Chinese economy, for example, the IMF just
upgraded the estimates for where they thought the Chinese economy
is going to be over twenty twenty five because they've
accepted expectations. So yeah, that's a piece of good news.
But if we see China or the United States you
(17:02):
kindly start to slow rapidly and this global ekinomly starts
to go off rails, then you've probably get the recipe
for the castra game to two percent. That's a scenario,
that's a possibility. It's not a simpral scenario that people
are painting at the moment, So we need to be careful.
Speaker 5 (17:16):
We wish for okay, okay.
Speaker 3 (17:18):
Let's just finish with the unemployment figures I think due
out tomorrow. The experts or the pundits are picking five
point three percent, which on the face of it doesn't
appear incredibly high to some of the other unemployment rates
we've had that have been close to double digit. But
are we in danger of stagflation? That is a word
that's being thrown around at the moment.
Speaker 7 (17:41):
Yeah, and it's an arsty word that we don't like
to see. But if you look at the Reserve Bank's
latest estimate for second quarter GDP and it's the gym quarter,
it's a negative number. I'm not reading too much into
possibly every one negative number at the moment, but there's
a lot of uncertain and be up there, whether you
look at globally we trade tensions, or where you look
(18:03):
at potential politically. What we're seeing here in your zeale,
the housing market is not taking over that economic battern.
We've got those structural issues. Yes, so so the growth
side of the leads you is still pretty tepid at
the same time, we've got rising headline inflation. What's good
for the farmers is not necessarily good for people at
the super markets. And we're having a good old fashioned
debate over the price of butter, which surprises me because
(18:25):
you pound of butter is less than a point of beer.
So we need sometimes you need to put it in
a route of sense in regard to what's going on.
But electricity bills, local authorities rates, they're all on the up.
So there's some aspects of this inflation. We dynamic that's
got a little bit of stickiness, and inflation is a
(18:45):
thief that steers money out of people's pockets, and people
don't like that thief, so we want to get rid
of inflation. Unfortunately, how to get rid of inflation, you
need to have weak growth, because when you've got strong
growth or an economy that's ripping a line, people can
start to put up prices. It's very difficult to put
up prices if your retailer, for your construction firm, when
you've got no demand.
Speaker 3 (19:03):
On the episode, I absolutely agree with you. We're barking
up the wrong tree with butter, insurance rates, energy costs,
those are the things we really need to concentrate on
Cameron Baggriy two great economic minds. Well not quite, but
I did appreciate your input the best fun Thanks Cameron.
Some of your feedback coming in on the meat companies
(19:24):
uncharitable perhaps Mega merger ha ha ha, Silver Fern Farms
going backwards even with Chinese money and zero debt, shares
of completely tanked and value. And here's one putting the
boot into the Alliance Group. Hi, Jamie, just shows how
a nap the previous Alliance CEO, chairman and board were
(19:46):
asleep at the wheel Our area southern Southland was once
an Alliance stronghold. Long term shareholders have abandoned them for
any other company because of the dissatisfaction of with how
Alliance treats its shareholders. And I don't want to speak
poorly of the dearly departed Michelle, but I think David
(20:09):
Surveyor's history won't judge him kindly as a chief executive
of the Alliance Group. Anyhow, Up next we're going to
have Michelle with the latest and Rural news. Will have
sports news for you as well. Before the end of
the hour, Jack willn Roweth. Are we turning into Snowflakes,
Let's ask Her, and part two of the Farmer Time Interview.
(20:29):
We didn't get to play yesterday. It is twenty eight
away from one year with the Country, brought to you
by brand Michelle, Good Afternoon and Rotten Tomatoes, which is
(20:51):
a wee bit snobby I think is a movie review
site gave Superman eighty three percent? Why did it give
Rambo First Blood two one of the great movies of
all time?
Speaker 8 (21:00):
On Rainbow First Blood too, which was released in nineteen
eighty five, so a fair while ago got thirty three
percent Because.
Speaker 3 (21:08):
In the original Rambo First Blood, he Rambo was John
Rambo was sort of a baddie and then they turned
him into a goody and I think the final Rambo
movie and there's about four or five of them in
the in the in the series has holds the cinematic
record for the most people killed in one movie ever.
(21:29):
So they did a body count and that's the most ever. Interestingly,
no one died in the Superman movie. There was lots
of action. Hey spoiler alert, Yeah, spoiler alert. So if
you want a family friendly movie to go to, go
to Superman. No one dies.
Speaker 1 (21:44):
The Country's World News with Cod cadet, New Zealand's leading
right on lawnbower brand. Visit steel Ford dot cot insid
for your local stockist.
Speaker 8 (21:54):
And North Canterbury pig farmer Steve Stern has won the
New Zealand Pork's Outstanding Contribution Award, regnizing his twenty seven
years of dedication to excellence in the sector. Stern and
his daughter Holly run Pataus Farms in Howarden, new Zealand's
largest pig farming operation. Stern was presented with the award
at New Zealand Pork's annual conference in christ Church on
July the twenty ninth. Delegates at the conference also express
(22:17):
their thanks to former MP and Southland farmer Eric Roy,
who stepped down last week as chair of m Z Pork,
having taken on the role in twenty and nineteen.
Speaker 3 (22:25):
Yeah, great bloke, Eric Roy. And the pig farmers. We've
got to support the pig farmers. They're like the arable farmers.
They need a bit of a they need a bit
of a hand up. So go and buy New Zealand pork.
Not that crap. Read the labels, Read the label. Not
that crap that we import from places like why would
we import from Canada or Italy? What's the carbon footprint
of that? Here's sport?
Speaker 2 (22:45):
Sport?
Speaker 1 (22:46):
Were the nth go Kiwi to the bone since nineteen
oh four.
Speaker 3 (22:50):
This is one of the great stories of twenty twenty
five rugby. Kyle Preston refused to get ahead of himself
as the All Blacks continue as the All Blacks, all
Black half back, should I say continue to go down?
The twenty five year old crusader has earned a maide
A national call up as injury cover for the Rugby Championship.
Preston said he tried to shut out all the noise
(23:11):
his word of Noah Hotham and Cam Royguard's injuries feltered
through good player that I'm very excited about Leroy Carter
and Novak Djokovic has withdrawn from the Cincinnati Open for
the second straight year. The twenty four time Grand Slam
winner will arrive at next month's US Open without any
competitive tennis since losing in the Wimbledon Semis. And I
(23:35):
think the last major or Grand Slam he won was
actually the US Open way back in twenty twenty three,
two years ago. Doctor Jack Willon Rowath are we snowflakes?
That's up next on the country.
Speaker 6 (23:49):
You can see ever heres have the rugs a dream?
Speaker 2 (23:57):
I can't stand.
Speaker 3 (23:58):
To fly fortnightly. She writes an excellent column for US
doctor Jaquelin Rowis. They're going to come back to that
one because this week's offering is a beauty. But Jacqueline,
you've spent a lifetime and education. What did you make
of yesterday's big announcement from the government abolishing NCA Because
(24:19):
I think, and I'm sounding like a grumpy old boomer here, Jacqueline,
that you know, younger people are snowflakes. Exam pressure is
just part of life. You are the past or you
fail when you leave school.
Speaker 9 (24:33):
Yeah, hurdles are part of life. And remember I have
no children. So what I'm talking about is experience from
the classroom and coming back from University of Melbourne in
two thousand and seven, it was quite a shock to me,
not having talked first here for seven years to see
what the children will like as a product from NCEEA.
(24:55):
And this was fairly at the beginning, but nevertheless it
was a really this disappointing experience. It was lacking in
pushback and questioning and all the sorts of things that
one really enjoys. In the university classroom, the debate, the rigor.
I used to say, challenge me, guys. But the NTA
(25:16):
kids were a bit formulaic and wanting templates, which doesn't
reflect real life or model answers or all of those
sorts of things. And I didn't feel that what I
had in the university classroom was the result of a
great preparation for that university classroom. So my job at
(25:37):
university was to try and get them fit for the
workforce in three or four years, or that's what I
myself imposed task was getting them fit for the workforce.
And indeed I had employers coming to me and saying,
who have you got for us this year?
Speaker 6 (25:51):
Check?
Speaker 9 (25:52):
And I'd try and get them into positions where I
knew they would flourish. But it was all about the
then being encouraged to step up, and yes, exams hurdles
are a part of life, and just getting used to
them with lots of little tests or whatever helps with
the big issues later when you do or don't get
(26:12):
the job, or you do or don't get the promotion.
Speaker 3 (26:15):
Well we had excellence and mirrorts and the good old days.
Once again, Grumpy boomer. But I'm on a roll now,
so I mars. We'll keep going. You were marked between
one and one hundred. Fifty percent was the pass rate.
So if you got fifty one, your past. If you've
got forty nine, you failed. And life's like that.
Speaker 9 (26:32):
And it was interesting to me when this generation started
coming through any of the education system. It was about
the same time when we were getting all the you
are the weakest link goodbye, all the elimination programs, and
we see them in cookery, we see them on Love Island,
we see them in chases and tasks, all those things.
The elimination people actually like to know where they are
(26:55):
in the pack. They like to know they're the head
of the pack at number one, or that they're in
the middle of the pack and safe from dropping out
or being singled out for something that they don't feel
up to. So the ranking used to be actually part
of human psyche, and honestly, I think it still is.
Speaker 3 (27:14):
I think of the greatest elimination show of all time.
Not really, but I'm saying this facetiously. The Apprentice Trump,
you're fired here, you're either in around Hey, how does
this tie in with what Brooke Van Velden was saying
the other day about kids collecting eggs. Was she misquoted?
Was it fake news?
Speaker 6 (27:32):
Trump?
Speaker 9 (27:33):
I'd think there was some muddling going on, and yes,
Federated Farmers said it was a misinterpretation. But going back
to my classroom, by the time I got back to Massy,
so that was two thousand and seven, the classes were
sort of fifty fifty town and country, and it always
seemed to me that the country kids had basic, more
(27:56):
general sort of experience, and they often had help with
the car and whatever, depending on the parenting, of course.
And as I moved through to the University of Waikato,
there tended to be some more protection going on. But
urban the urban kids were there because they really thought
agriculture might be the future, so they had a different
(28:19):
sort of resilience. But what I usually found quite quite
extraordinary at the University of Waikato there were people coming
in from other disciplines, and yeah, they were often the
ones who didn't think that exams were really for them,
sort of coming out of the creative and performing arts
or social sciences. And while we always try and assist
(28:44):
all students, the exams are a part of life in
if we don't call them exams, they might be the interview.
We don't want people going to pieces because they stuck
up a question at an interview. That's how you learn.
Exams are how you learn.
Speaker 3 (29:00):
Now, Jacqueline, we've been saying lots about lots of things,
and we've neglected to mention your excellent column on trends
that are repairing. This dates back to a Rabobank story
or report earlier in the year, so people can read
that one online. But it's interesting that the theme of
the column is really about biologicals. And I must say
(29:20):
I didn't know what a biological was, but I learned
a lot reading your column. So there I've teased your column.
People can read it on the Country, dot co, dot NZ.
You you go well chairs, bye, thank you, Jacqueline. Sixteen
away from one Up. Next what you missed out on
yesterday's show. We're going to reheat it and rehash it.
(29:41):
It's Farmer Tom Part two, Donald Trump, the end of
the UK drought and tb on Jeremy Clarkson's Diddley Squat Farm.
It's n easy.
Speaker 2 (29:57):
To fun.
Speaker 3 (29:58):
Welcome back to the Country, Michelle tells me two thousand,
the year two thousand, Why why two k hy k too?
I can't remember. I remember all the fuss we had
worrying about her. Anyhow, so twenty five years old, the
song fire for Fighting and Superman. It's not easy, right,
(30:18):
yesterday we didn't get to play all The Farmer Tirem interview.
Here's part two. We started talking about TB on Jeremy
Clarkson's Didley Squat farm. Jeremy Clarkson Clarkson's farm Didley Squat
has gone down with TB, and you're saying that this
essentially could be a good thing. The amount of exposure
the TB and things like your Badger cul are going
(30:40):
to get out of this will be huge, and Jeremy
Clarkson is in a position to sway public opinion.
Speaker 5 (30:47):
Yeah. Absolutely, I mean it's never good to see.
Speaker 6 (30:50):
And I've got lots of friends whose farms are gone
down with TV and it's always a tremendously pressured, emotional,
difficult time. You know, there are a bloodline that have
been in many cases established for generations and beloved cows.
Speaker 5 (31:05):
You know named who you know, they see them.
Speaker 6 (31:08):
Every day, they know their character and personality, who are
cold because of a possible or an inconclusive on a test,
so they might have you know, they might have TV.
But it's always a hard time and I feel for Clarkson.
But what he's great at is showing his emotions, showing
(31:28):
that he loves farming, and he absolutely does, There's no
doubt about it. I would back him absolutely. He is
a farmer through and through. He's one of us, and
it will be for the cause of dealing with TV.
It will be a great thing because now not only
is everyone across the UK, but people around the world
are aware of this.
Speaker 5 (31:48):
I don't know. Maybe just does Trump watch Clarkson's farm,
I don't know.
Speaker 3 (31:52):
Maybe, well, I think he watches quite a bit of
a reality TV while he's drinking his star at Cokes
and eating McDonald's hamburgers. Talking about the McDonald Samberger says,
I said earlier, we've got a fifteen percent tariff. You
guys have only got a ten percent terror So obviously
Saki has done something that's right.
Speaker 5 (32:13):
Well, we're we're you know. I wonder equally if we're
being played. I mean his big target is the EU, and.
Speaker 6 (32:23):
Yeah, so whether whether we're we're just being given a
slightly slightly better tariff for as part of a bargaining
chip there, or whether it's just completely random as I
don't know. For UK farming, I'm not quite sure what
significant effect it will have. A lot of our big
(32:44):
brands do export into the US, but it's not a
really it's not really a mass market for US.
Speaker 5 (32:49):
It's not.
Speaker 6 (32:50):
It's not a huge, huge, significant market. It's very difficult
for targeted industries. For That's why John Swinney, the first
Minister of Scotland, was in with him with Trump, because
of course it's very difficult for salmon, very different for
Scotch whiskey, causing challenges in some areas. So shortbread, brisket,
biscuits and things like that are tea is something that
(33:11):
we export into the kind of more luxury end of
the US market. But I would say that for the
for the broad UK agricultural market, the US isn't isn't
isn't a huge destination for US.
Speaker 3 (33:23):
The drought it has ended. I told you Wimbledon would
sort it out.
Speaker 5 (33:29):
You promised and you delivered.
Speaker 6 (33:30):
As ever, Javid, you're the oracle and I really appreciate that. Yeah,
across much of the UK we have now had rain.
We've now had a lot of rain in some cases,
but it was it was a drought that was that
was deep enough and long enough that a lot of
people have had their harvest severely effected. That said, up
in the north of England, up in Scotland, there's been
(33:52):
some fantastic stile. It is the wonderful hay made up there,
and yet two or three hundred miles away people are
making harghf for silage half the hay, maybe even less
than that, and they typically be making. And we're seeing
big differences across the UK in terms of soil types.
Speaker 5 (34:07):
So the lighter soils the crops have been dying off
in the drought.
Speaker 6 (34:11):
The heavier soils that we often curse as we you know,
sometimes do on our farm, but our heavier soils have
held out and we are we are two thirds of
the way through a pretty average harvest, which frankly i'd
have snapped your hand off, or if you'd offered me
a month ago.
Speaker 2 (34:26):
I see.
Speaker 3 (34:27):
The call has come for UK farmers to take climate
change seriously, because the Met Office has issued a stark
warning that the UK is now experiencing a notably different
climate than it did just a few decades ago, a
shift or riving already having a visible impact on farming. Tom,
I don't know how long you've been on the family
farm for, but are you seeing that notable shift?
Speaker 6 (34:50):
Absolutely, And there are people all over who are who
are who are skeptical, but there is no doubt that
our weather systems are changing. That means more extreme weather,
it doesn't necessarily and we're certainly getting hotter summers. I mean,
we're we're we're seeing that significantly. But you know, we
get a cold patch in the winter and everyone says
(35:11):
our global warming is a load of nonsense, but we're
getting more extreme weather. So we are getting some colder weather,
we're getting some wetter weather, we're getting long periods of
dry time. And the UK climate we're like you guys,
we're a maritime climate. We are used to and we're
built on relatively mild weather, relatively frequent rain, and we've
(35:31):
seen that's caused huge, huge issues for our wildlife, for
food production in the last few months with the drought.
But we you know, we had a tremendously wet sewing
time back in September and as I look at some
of my yield maps, from the combine. We've been less
affective by the drought. They're more affected by the wet
in the winter. So you know we're getting we're getting
(35:53):
extremes of wet and dry, hot and cold, more than
we would have previously in the one year. So we're
absolutely at the you know, the cold face when it
comes to comes to climate change, in climate variability.
Speaker 3 (36:06):
All right, Tom, I'll let you go to bed. Thanks
for your time.
Speaker 5 (36:09):
Everybody beside a.
Speaker 3 (36:11):
Tack okay, wrapping the Country. It's brought to you by Bratton.
My name is Jamie McKay. No Christopher luxon tomorrow's show.
I think on tomorrow's show. I think he's in Papa
New Guinea. We might have to try Todd McClay. I
think he might be in Thailand. Or maybe Nichola willis
a butted with Nicola. Who knows. Anyhow, Thanks for listening today.
(36:35):
We really do appreciate it. Lots of feedback coming in
about the Alliance Group recapitalization. It's the story we'll find
out about next week.
Speaker 1 (36:49):
Catch you're the latest from the land. It's The Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to Brent, your specialist in
John Dee machinery,
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie mckaye thanks to Brent starkest of the
leading agriculture brands.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
May sound absurd. Even Heara's hair, the randomly a man
minister won't you can see even hears he the rat
to dream. It's not Easy, super be.
Speaker 3 (00:39):
Get a New Zealand and welcome to the Country. The
show is brought to you by Brand Tom Jamie McKay
fie for fighting Superman. It's not Easy. Saw the movie
last night. I might do a movie review for you
a bit later in the show, but we're going to
kick it off with a Superman of the New Zealand
Primary Sect, a former Minister of Primary Industries, current Chair
of the Meat Industry Associate and Apiculture New Zealand trouble
(01:03):
at mill for the honey industry. We're also going to
catch up with Cameron Bagri, independent economist, US tariffs dropping
the ocr this month, the unemployment rate and the threat
of stagflation. Jacqueline Roweth will join us. Are we turning
into snowflakes? I'm going to ask Jaquelin that one, and
you're going to get part two of The Farmer tirem
(01:24):
interview which is worth waiting for. We just ran out
of time to play it for your Yesterday radio. Here
we go, Nathan Guy, former Minister of Primary Industries. Do
you ever go to the movies these days?
Speaker 2 (01:34):
Nathan, No, I don't.
Speaker 4 (01:36):
I just signed up to Netflix, so probably the comfort
of the home near the log Bourners.
Speaker 5 (01:41):
But going into the movies unfortunately.
Speaker 3 (01:43):
Well, there is something about the big screen. Anyhow, I'd
give Superman a like a seven out of ten if
if you and Erica decide to go to the movies.
Speaker 4 (01:54):
Look, Topelets is not listening.
Speaker 3 (01:58):
I hope it could be date night for you. Spice
things up a bit, Nathan.
Speaker 4 (02:04):
Yeah, did you get a chop bomb and some popcorn?
Speaker 5 (02:07):
Jmie?
Speaker 3 (02:07):
Or no, No, not the popcorn, but always by the
chocolate ice cream. It's an essential. Anyhow, let's get on
to the issues of the day. Putting on first, I
guess your Meat Industry Association hat how badly are these
and we're going to get Cameron Bagrii's take on this
one as well. But how badly are these tariffs going
from ten to fifteen percent going to affect our red
(02:31):
meat industry? It's estimated to cost US three hundred million
or three hundred extra million.
Speaker 4 (02:38):
Will have an impact because ten percent has been passed
on by and large right through to consumers. This one
is going to be more problematic the extra five percent.
It doesn't sound like a lot, but the reality is
be a hell of an arm wrestle with importers. So unfortunately,
it is going to be a bit of a pain
(02:58):
point for our red meat set during. In fact, all
those exporting up into the US. It feels to me, Jamie,
like fifteen percent might be here for a while. I
think we can hope for the best, but I think
we need to prepare for it. To hang around on.
Pleased that Van gallis, our top trade official, is up
(03:18):
there now, and I believe Minister McClay is going to
be heading up shortly.
Speaker 3 (03:23):
Yeah, but hang on, Nathan, we're a pimple on the
backside of America or the American economy. We can go
and plead our case for all we're worth. But Trump
ain't kind of listen.
Speaker 5 (03:34):
Now.
Speaker 4 (03:35):
Apparently he just sat down and looked, you know, who
had a trade surplus. We were, unfortunately there with thirty
seven other countries. I don't think there's anything really that
we could.
Speaker 6 (03:45):
Have done to avoid that.
Speaker 4 (03:47):
We have to just deal with the cards that are
dealt to us, and unfortunately fifteen percent, as I say,
it feels like it's going to be hanging around for
a while. But we also need to wait and see
what comes out of these meetings happening in Washington and
when Minister McLay gets up there shortly.
Speaker 3 (04:04):
But I think one of the worrying issues for US
is the fact that one of our main competitors in
terms of putting red meat into the American market, Australia,
sitting at ten percent.
Speaker 4 (04:15):
Yes, that is a concern. Of course, they have got
an FDA free trade agreement, but they've still got a
ten percent tariff. So there's other countries that have negotiated
with President Trump in his last term, Canada, Mexico, and China.
They all got deals, but they're all back on the
table now for renegotiation. So there's a lot of uncertainty.
(04:36):
If this does push through into consumers and they feel
it in their back pocket, it might be that these
could be reviewed. So never say never, Jamie Well, I.
Speaker 3 (04:46):
Guess the good news part of the story is Nathan Guy.
The Americans still can't get enough of our red meat,
especially our beef our grinding beef.
Speaker 4 (04:55):
Oh yes, j important Low is their bug count Ours
is frozen and there's is a whole lot of fatty
product that goes into the hamburger market. And we've got
a great reputation. So if burger prices go up and
the average America needs three a week, they might just
find that these tariffs are impacting them out of all
(05:17):
the burger chains. So we just got to wait and see.
I think calm heads will prevail and see what these
high level meetings in Washington may or may not deliver.
Speaker 3 (05:26):
It along the way to deal to recapitalize the Alliance
group appears to be close. The Irish Times reported over
the weekend that Dawn Meats are set to stump up
with two hundred and seventy million for a seventy percent
stake in the Alliance, which was well, it still is
are only fully one hundred percent owned cooperative meat company
(05:50):
in this country. So is the Alliance groups are gone
as far as the co op goes obviously.
Speaker 4 (05:56):
Well that's certainly the way it reads. I read that
article as well. Jmen an Alliance aren't saying anything. I
think there's a meeting coming up in a couple of
weeks time, so we'll all find out. What I do
hope is that we get a bit more certainty in
the red meat sector. Okay, we're talking about global uncertainty.
On one hand, it'd be quite good to get this
(06:17):
sort of if it is indeed who you speculating, or
who the article speculated to be first cab off the
rank and going to take a reasonable chunk of Alliance,
I just think, well, if it stacks up and farmers
vote for it, let's get on with it. We need
structural certainty in this industry, not people looking over their shoulders.
Speaker 3 (06:40):
Hey, when I was preparing recently for a funeral eulogy
of an old mate of mine, we've came up with
this wonderful picture of him and John Key. He wasn't
a sur in those days, and a farm paddick in Riversdale.
The year is two thousand and nine and the talkers
John Key's talking it up of a mega merger between
the Alliance group and so for fern farms. Is it
(07:01):
a real shame that that didn't happen.
Speaker 4 (07:05):
I'm not sure you know the meat industry excellence. They
came to me they had a plan. I sat in
the meeting with John Ke at one stage and he said, well,
if you bring the two chairs and the two chief
executives in here to talk, we'll listen. But that never eventuated.
So history as the saying I never repeats itself, but
(07:28):
in this case it is repeating itself. I just hope
that we can get some positive momentum in the red
meat sector. This has been a bit of a cloud
of alliance for a year or two now, and farmers
need certainty make sure that their stock's going to be processed,
they're going to get well paid, and I hope for
the best for reliance.
Speaker 3 (07:49):
Hey, Nathan, I look at the two most successful primary
sectors at the moment, and that would have to be
dairy and Kiwi fruit. And I look at Fonterra allbit
it doesn't It controls about eighty percent of the market,
just under eighty. And then I look at Zespriy what
they're doing with single desk selling, and I think they've
got a better structure than the red meat industry.
Speaker 4 (08:09):
Well, there's Fronterra with a fantastic cop hugely successful. Had
a bit of a bumpy ride but certainly hit its
straps under Miles Hurrel and new board leadership, so doing
fantastically well. Zesbury very lucky to get the single desk.
Some think that there should be some sort of mega
merger with meat companies. I don't think that'll ever happen.
(08:33):
There might be collaboration in the background, but when you
think about it as Chinese investment, this Japanese investment, there's
a private investment into the red meat sector. So I
think any talk of Omega merger is probably unrealistic. But
there is opportunities for companies to collaborate in what I've
seen and heard that starting to happen.
Speaker 3 (08:55):
Nathan guy with Us a former Minister of Primary Industry's
current chair of the Meat Industry Associate Ocean, also current
share of apriculture in zed. Put on your honey hat, Nathan.
The industry is struggling.
Speaker 4 (09:10):
There's a struggle. The reality is that there's still a
bit of a stockpile that's got to work its way
through from pre COVID levels. So that's unfortunate. The moment
that moves through and we get a bit more positivity
in the market on the back of COVID and these
economies are starting to crank a little bit. There are
(09:32):
a few green shirts, and we know that Manuka is
hugely successful, an amazing product, natural taste, its multi purpose,
goes into nutraceuticals, pharmaceuticals, high value products, you name it.
So we know it's a real success. And we've got
to get alignment, which is I'm trying to help the
(09:52):
honey sector to get alignment, to try and move the
politics out of the way so that we can work
constructive together with bee keepers right through the supply chain.
Speaker 3 (10:03):
Nathan guy, thanks for your time today in the country.
As I said, date night with Erica, you won't go
to Superman, you won't regret it.
Speaker 4 (10:10):
Good on you, Jamie, have a good date.
Speaker 2 (10:12):
There we go.
Speaker 3 (10:13):
Thanks Nathan. It is seventeen after twelve. You are with
the country. I see on amongs you. Rotten Tomatoes is
not a great gauge I reckon for movies these days,
because you get classic movies like Rambo two, one of
the greatest movies ever made and probably doesn't rate that
well on Rotten Tomatoes, but you know, the cinematic merit
(10:36):
of that movie is or cannot be overstated. Such great acting.
Sylvester stallone, wiping out the entire Vetcolong Army himself. Anyhow, Hey,
up next it is Cameron Bagriy. Lots of economic stuff
happening out there, will get his take on the tariffs.
We've also got an OCR announcement coming up on August twenty.
(10:58):
See I'm with John Key on this one on one
hundred basis points and kickstart the economy. We'll see what
a proper economist says about that. And tomorrow we get
the unemployment figures. They're not going to be great. Everyone
or the market is suggesting five point three percent. What
might that mean for the New Zealand economy? Are we
in danger of stagflation? Cameron Baggory up next.
Speaker 2 (11:21):
So.
Speaker 3 (11:34):
Cameron Bagory is an independent economist. Lots to talk about
at the moment. We've got tariffs announced last Friday, OCR
to be announced the next cut hopefully on August the twentieth,
and tomorrow unemployment figures are due to come out. Cameron,
let's start with tariffs. How badly is this going to
(11:54):
affect the New Zealand economy? Going from ten to fifteen percent?
Speaker 7 (11:59):
Not to marginal week I guess you can look at
it through two lenses in thet probably three lessons and
just look the number one. While we went from ten
to fifteen, there's a little of it beyond me. Secondly,
if you look at ten or fifteen, it's a hell
of a lot lower and what we're seeing across the
whole lot of other countries. So we can probably take
a little bit of deep press. So I think, well,
(12:20):
it wasn't that bad is what we've seen in the
lots of Brazil. But yeah, firteen percent is still fifteen percent,
and that makes you less competitive, although in a relative sense,
our beef bang into the United States is going to
be a hell of a lot more competitive than the
locks of the Brazilian products, Yeah, but.
Speaker 3 (12:36):
Not as competitive as the Aussie beef.
Speaker 4 (12:39):
Yeah.
Speaker 7 (12:39):
And that's the one that I guess surprises us. Why
Australia got ten and we got fifteen. Maybe it's because
Australia is going to buy a whole lot more stuff
lost the United States military equipment, etc. Et cetera. You know,
they just got a bigger chip book.
Speaker 3 (12:54):
Well, they run a trade deficit with the US, whereas
we don't. We're almost even stevens. But you would think
Trump splitting here is a wee bit on that one.
Speaker 7 (13:04):
Yeah, well that's what the science behind this makes no sense.
In fact, the economics behind while we're going around shving
tariff on various countries around the globe is pretty marginal.
But what we know is that we now live in
an environment or a system where what's called power there's
now challenging rules and a power based system faces the
(13:27):
big boys and the big countries and America's big and
went on.
Speaker 3 (13:33):
Could this drive the world economy into a like a
global recession or am I being two glass half full?
Speaker 7 (13:39):
There?
Speaker 5 (13:41):
No, there is that risk.
Speaker 7 (13:42):
And if you have a look at the OECD's latest projections,
if you ever look at the IMS latest projections, that
they're projecting the world to grow around three percent for
the next couple of years, which it face fairly sounds
pretty good. That You've got to remember the world economy
and a lot of levels is driven by a the
United States to be, a whole lot of emerging market economies,
(14:02):
and India growing at six year after year.
Speaker 5 (14:05):
That's the stuff.
Speaker 7 (14:06):
Three percent. It's hoh hum. But if you read into
what the OECD and IOME have said, it's got CAVM
to or written all over it e by be aware
in terms of the numbers, because the risk are to
the down side.
Speaker 3 (14:21):
Now Tom mcclay's going to jump on a plane fly
over to Washington. Do is damn justin good on him
to try and get us a better deal. He's peeing
into the northwestern right.
Speaker 7 (14:30):
I'd say so yeah, but yeah, fay my hat after Tidde.
He has been doing a remarkably good job, along with
a whole lot of the other ministers, putting New Zealand
back on the map in regard to international create and
there is growing hope there's going to be some sort
of deal between New zeal And India Twenda before the
end of the year. But I had tip to hard
work and hopefully we're going to see a bit of payoff.
(14:51):
But Americans now, I think there's just things written in
his oone.
Speaker 3 (14:55):
Don't want to put my economic mind against yours, Cameron
baggery bet, I do want your opinion on this one. See,
I think the best thing we could do in this
country has dropped the official cash rate, and drop it quickly.
I know we're going to get one on August the twentieth.
But you've got guys like John Key running around saying
we need to cut one hundred basis points.
Speaker 7 (15:13):
What say you, Oh, look, I think the reserve banks
got another one, maybe two up their sleeve. The economy
bounced out of a recession. The end of twenty twenty
four were a decent quarter. The start of two and
twenty five. It looks so we've done, David Long and
now stop for a cup of tea. You know, the
rural sector's been doing a lot of the heavy lifting
(15:35):
over this last sort of sixty nine months to get
the economy back on the feet. You'd sort of expect
that the impact of lower interest rates by the housing
market the construction sector would start to flow and we
get that sort of second round, you get more propulsion.
We're not seeing that at the moment. Why because the
fundamental is towards housing. The construction look good at the
(15:55):
moment in regard to population growth, that's demand relative to
what there in the market. We've still got these structural problems.
I had to the government an announcement that came out
in regard to dropping NCEO getting stuck into the education sector.
We need to fix the roads. Those sort of things
are just inhibited. They're like a rugby player that's carrying
an injury, and you're carrying an injury, you're not going
(16:17):
to get top performance in the Zealand economy at the moment. Unfortunately,
it's carrying a whole lot of structural injuries and the
re zum band can't fix those. You dropping interest rates
as a sugar rust, and you've got to be careful
about how much sugar that you pump into the economic
system because it can put you up on a bit
of an artificial high.
Speaker 3 (16:35):
So three point twenty five percent at the moment, you're
suggesting two point seventy five at best.
Speaker 7 (16:42):
Well, at best subject to what's going on around the
globe now, the Chinese economy, for example, the IMF just
upgraded the estimates for where they thought the Chinese economy
is going to be over twenty twenty five because they've
accepted expectations. So yeah, that's a piece of good news.
But if we see China or the United States you
(17:02):
kindly start to slow rapidly and this global ekinomly starts
to go off rails, then you've probably get the recipe
for the castra game to two percent. That's a scenario,
that's a possibility. It's not a simpral scenario that people
are painting at the moment, So we need to be careful.
Speaker 5 (17:16):
We wish for okay, okay.
Speaker 3 (17:18):
Let's just finish with the unemployment figures I think due
out tomorrow. The experts or the pundits are picking five
point three percent, which on the face of it doesn't
appear incredibly high to some of the other unemployment rates
we've had that have been close to double digit. But
are we in danger of stagflation? That is a word
that's being thrown around at the moment.
Speaker 7 (17:41):
Yeah, and it's an arsty word that we don't like
to see. But if you look at the Reserve Bank's
latest estimate for second quarter GDP and it's the gym quarter,
it's a negative number. I'm not reading too much into
possibly every one negative number at the moment, but there's
a lot of uncertain and be up there, whether you
look at globally we trade tensions, or where you look
(18:03):
at potential politically. What we're seeing here in your zeale,
the housing market is not taking over that economic battern.
We've got those structural issues. Yes, so so the growth
side of the leads you is still pretty tepid at
the same time, we've got rising headline inflation. What's good
for the farmers is not necessarily good for people at
the super markets. And we're having a good old fashioned
debate over the price of butter, which surprises me because
(18:25):
you pound of butter is less than a point of beer.
So we need sometimes you need to put it in
a route of sense in regard to what's going on.
But electricity bills, local authorities rates, they're all on the up.
So there's some aspects of this inflation. We dynamic that's
got a little bit of stickiness, and inflation is a
(18:45):
thief that steers money out of people's pockets, and people
don't like that thief, so we want to get rid
of inflation. Unfortunately, how to get rid of inflation, you
need to have weak growth, because when you've got strong
growth or an economy that's ripping a line, people can
start to put up prices. It's very difficult to put
up prices if your retailer, for your construction firm, when
you've got no demand.
Speaker 3 (19:03):
On the episode, I absolutely agree with you. We're barking
up the wrong tree with butter, insurance rates, energy costs,
those are the things we really need to concentrate on
Cameron Baggriy two great economic minds. Well not quite, but
I did appreciate your input the best fun Thanks Cameron.
Some of your feedback coming in on the meat companies
(19:24):
uncharitable perhaps Mega merger ha ha ha, Silver Fern Farms
going backwards even with Chinese money and zero debt, shares
of completely tanked and value. And here's one putting the
boot into the Alliance Group. Hi, Jamie, just shows how
a nap the previous Alliance CEO, chairman and board were
(19:46):
asleep at the wheel Our area southern Southland was once
an Alliance stronghold. Long term shareholders have abandoned them for
any other company because of the dissatisfaction of with how
Alliance treats its shareholders. And I don't want to speak
poorly of the dearly departed Michelle, but I think David
(20:09):
Surveyor's history won't judge him kindly as a chief executive
of the Alliance Group. Anyhow, Up next we're going to
have Michelle with the latest and Rural news. Will have
sports news for you as well. Before the end of
the hour, Jack willn Roweth. Are we turning into Snowflakes,
Let's ask Her, and part two of the Farmer Time Interview.
(20:29):
We didn't get to play yesterday. It is twenty eight
away from one year with the Country, brought to you
by brand Michelle, Good Afternoon and Rotten Tomatoes, which is
(20:51):
a wee bit snobby I think is a movie review
site gave Superman eighty three percent? Why did it give
Rambo First Blood two one of the great movies of
all time?
Speaker 8 (21:00):
On Rainbow First Blood too, which was released in nineteen
eighty five, so a fair while ago got thirty three
percent Because.
Speaker 3 (21:08):
In the original Rambo First Blood, he Rambo was John
Rambo was sort of a baddie and then they turned
him into a goody and I think the final Rambo
movie and there's about four or five of them in
the in the in the series has holds the cinematic
record for the most people killed in one movie ever.
(21:29):
So they did a body count and that's the most ever. Interestingly,
no one died in the Superman movie. There was lots
of action. Hey spoiler alert, Yeah, spoiler alert. So if
you want a family friendly movie to go to, go
to Superman. No one dies.
Speaker 1 (21:44):
The Country's World News with Cod cadet, New Zealand's leading
right on lawnbower brand. Visit steel Ford dot cot insid
for your local stockist.
Speaker 8 (21:54):
And North Canterbury pig farmer Steve Stern has won the
New Zealand Pork's Outstanding Contribution Award, regnizing his twenty seven
years of dedication to excellence in the sector. Stern and
his daughter Holly run Pataus Farms in Howarden, new Zealand's
largest pig farming operation. Stern was presented with the award
at New Zealand Pork's annual conference in christ Church on
July the twenty ninth. Delegates at the conference also express
(22:17):
their thanks to former MP and Southland farmer Eric Roy,
who stepped down last week as chair of m Z Pork,
having taken on the role in twenty and nineteen.
Speaker 3 (22:25):
Yeah, great bloke, Eric Roy. And the pig farmers. We've
got to support the pig farmers. They're like the arable farmers.
They need a bit of a they need a bit
of a hand up. So go and buy New Zealand pork.
Not that crap. Read the labels, Read the label. Not
that crap that we import from places like why would
we import from Canada or Italy? What's the carbon footprint
of that? Here's sport?
Speaker 2 (22:45):
Sport?
Speaker 1 (22:46):
Were the nth go Kiwi to the bone since nineteen
oh four.
Speaker 3 (22:50):
This is one of the great stories of twenty twenty
five rugby. Kyle Preston refused to get ahead of himself
as the All Blacks continue as the All Blacks, all
Black half back, should I say continue to go down?
The twenty five year old crusader has earned a maide
A national call up as injury cover for the Rugby Championship.
Preston said he tried to shut out all the noise
(23:11):
his word of Noah Hotham and Cam Royguard's injuries feltered
through good player that I'm very excited about Leroy Carter
and Novak Djokovic has withdrawn from the Cincinnati Open for
the second straight year. The twenty four time Grand Slam
winner will arrive at next month's US Open without any
competitive tennis since losing in the Wimbledon Semis. And I
(23:35):
think the last major or Grand Slam he won was
actually the US Open way back in twenty twenty three,
two years ago. Doctor Jack Willon Rowath are we snowflakes?
That's up next on the country.
Speaker 6 (23:49):
You can see ever heres have the rugs a dream?
Speaker 2 (23:57):
I can't stand.
Speaker 3 (23:58):
To fly fortnightly. She writes an excellent column for US
doctor Jaquelin Rowis. They're going to come back to that
one because this week's offering is a beauty. But Jacqueline,
you've spent a lifetime and education. What did you make
of yesterday's big announcement from the government abolishing NCA Because
(24:19):
I think, and I'm sounding like a grumpy old boomer here, Jacqueline,
that you know, younger people are snowflakes. Exam pressure is
just part of life. You are the past or you
fail when you leave school.
Speaker 9 (24:33):
Yeah, hurdles are part of life. And remember I have
no children. So what I'm talking about is experience from
the classroom and coming back from University of Melbourne in
two thousand and seven, it was quite a shock to me,
not having talked first here for seven years to see
what the children will like as a product from NCEEA.
(24:55):
And this was fairly at the beginning, but nevertheless it
was a really this disappointing experience. It was lacking in
pushback and questioning and all the sorts of things that
one really enjoys. In the university classroom, the debate, the rigor.
I used to say, challenge me, guys. But the NTA
(25:16):
kids were a bit formulaic and wanting templates, which doesn't
reflect real life or model answers or all of those
sorts of things. And I didn't feel that what I
had in the university classroom was the result of a
great preparation for that university classroom. So my job at
(25:37):
university was to try and get them fit for the
workforce in three or four years, or that's what I
myself imposed task was getting them fit for the workforce.
And indeed I had employers coming to me and saying,
who have you got for us this year?
Speaker 6 (25:51):
Check?
Speaker 9 (25:52):
And I'd try and get them into positions where I
knew they would flourish. But it was all about the
then being encouraged to step up, and yes, exams hurdles
are a part of life, and just getting used to
them with lots of little tests or whatever helps with
the big issues later when you do or don't get
(26:12):
the job, or you do or don't get the promotion.
Speaker 3 (26:15):
Well we had excellence and mirrorts and the good old days.
Once again, Grumpy boomer. But I'm on a roll now,
so I mars. We'll keep going. You were marked between
one and one hundred. Fifty percent was the pass rate.
So if you got fifty one, your past. If you've
got forty nine, you failed. And life's like that.
Speaker 9 (26:32):
And it was interesting to me when this generation started
coming through any of the education system. It was about
the same time when we were getting all the you
are the weakest link goodbye, all the elimination programs, and
we see them in cookery, we see them on Love Island,
we see them in chases and tasks, all those things.
The elimination people actually like to know where they are
(26:55):
in the pack. They like to know they're the head
of the pack at number one, or that they're in
the middle of the pack and safe from dropping out
or being singled out for something that they don't feel
up to. So the ranking used to be actually part
of human psyche, and honestly, I think it still is.
Speaker 3 (27:14):
I think of the greatest elimination show of all time.
Not really, but I'm saying this facetiously. The Apprentice Trump,
you're fired here, you're either in around Hey, how does
this tie in with what Brooke Van Velden was saying
the other day about kids collecting eggs. Was she misquoted?
Was it fake news?
Speaker 6 (27:32):
Trump?
Speaker 9 (27:33):
I'd think there was some muddling going on, and yes,
Federated Farmers said it was a misinterpretation. But going back
to my classroom, by the time I got back to Massy,
so that was two thousand and seven, the classes were
sort of fifty fifty town and country, and it always
seemed to me that the country kids had basic, more
(27:56):
general sort of experience, and they often had help with
the car and whatever, depending on the parenting, of course.
And as I moved through to the University of Waikato,
there tended to be some more protection going on. But
urban the urban kids were there because they really thought
agriculture might be the future, so they had a different
(28:19):
sort of resilience. But what I usually found quite quite
extraordinary at the University of Waikato there were people coming
in from other disciplines, and yeah, they were often the
ones who didn't think that exams were really for them,
sort of coming out of the creative and performing arts
or social sciences. And while we always try and assist
(28:44):
all students, the exams are a part of life in
if we don't call them exams, they might be the interview.
We don't want people going to pieces because they stuck
up a question at an interview. That's how you learn.
Exams are how you learn.
Speaker 3 (29:00):
Now, Jacqueline, we've been saying lots about lots of things,
and we've neglected to mention your excellent column on trends
that are repairing. This dates back to a Rabobank story
or report earlier in the year, so people can read
that one online. But it's interesting that the theme of
the column is really about biologicals. And I must say
(29:20):
I didn't know what a biological was, but I learned
a lot reading your column. So there I've teased your column.
People can read it on the Country, dot co, dot NZ.
You you go well chairs, bye, thank you, Jacqueline. Sixteen
away from one Up. Next what you missed out on
yesterday's show. We're going to reheat it and rehash it.
(29:41):
It's Farmer Tom Part two, Donald Trump, the end of
the UK drought and tb on Jeremy Clarkson's Diddley Squat Farm.
It's n easy.
Speaker 2 (29:57):
To fun.
Speaker 3 (29:58):
Welcome back to the Country, Michelle tells me two thousand,
the year two thousand, Why why two k hy k too?
I can't remember. I remember all the fuss we had
worrying about her. Anyhow, so twenty five years old, the
song fire for Fighting and Superman. It's not easy, right,
(30:18):
yesterday we didn't get to play all The Farmer Tirem interview.
Here's part two. We started talking about TB on Jeremy
Clarkson's Didley Squat farm. Jeremy Clarkson Clarkson's farm Didley Squat
has gone down with TB, and you're saying that this
essentially could be a good thing. The amount of exposure
the TB and things like your Badger cul are going
(30:40):
to get out of this will be huge, and Jeremy
Clarkson is in a position to sway public opinion.
Speaker 5 (30:47):
Yeah. Absolutely, I mean it's never good to see.
Speaker 6 (30:50):
And I've got lots of friends whose farms are gone
down with TV and it's always a tremendously pressured, emotional,
difficult time. You know, there are a bloodline that have
been in many cases established for generations and beloved cows.
Speaker 5 (31:05):
You know named who you know, they see them.
Speaker 6 (31:08):
Every day, they know their character and personality, who are
cold because of a possible or an inconclusive on a test,
so they might have you know, they might have TV.
But it's always a hard time and I feel for Clarkson.
But what he's great at is showing his emotions, showing
(31:28):
that he loves farming, and he absolutely does, There's no
doubt about it. I would back him absolutely. He is
a farmer through and through. He's one of us, and
it will be for the cause of dealing with TV.
It will be a great thing because now not only
is everyone across the UK, but people around the world
are aware of this.
Speaker 5 (31:48):
I don't know. Maybe just does Trump watch Clarkson's farm,
I don't know.
Speaker 3 (31:52):
Maybe, well, I think he watches quite a bit of
a reality TV while he's drinking his star at Cokes
and eating McDonald's hamburgers. Talking about the McDonald Samberger says,
I said earlier, we've got a fifteen percent tariff. You
guys have only got a ten percent terror So obviously
Saki has done something that's right.
Speaker 5 (32:13):
Well, we're we're you know. I wonder equally if we're
being played. I mean his big target is the EU, and.
Speaker 6 (32:23):
Yeah, so whether whether we're we're just being given a
slightly slightly better tariff for as part of a bargaining
chip there, or whether it's just completely random as I
don't know. For UK farming, I'm not quite sure what
significant effect it will have. A lot of our big
(32:44):
brands do export into the US, but it's not a
really it's not really a mass market for US.
Speaker 5 (32:49):
It's not.
Speaker 6 (32:50):
It's not a huge, huge, significant market. It's very difficult
for targeted industries. For That's why John Swinney, the first
Minister of Scotland, was in with him with Trump, because
of course it's very difficult for salmon, very different for
Scotch whiskey, causing challenges in some areas. So shortbread, brisket,
biscuits and things like that are tea is something that
(33:11):
we export into the kind of more luxury end of
the US market. But I would say that for the
for the broad UK agricultural market, the US isn't isn't
isn't a huge destination for US.
Speaker 3 (33:23):
The drought it has ended. I told you Wimbledon would
sort it out.
Speaker 5 (33:29):
You promised and you delivered.
Speaker 6 (33:30):
As ever, Javid, you're the oracle and I really appreciate that. Yeah,
across much of the UK we have now had rain.
We've now had a lot of rain in some cases,
but it was it was a drought that was that
was deep enough and long enough that a lot of
people have had their harvest severely effected. That said, up
in the north of England, up in Scotland, there's been
(33:52):
some fantastic stile. It is the wonderful hay made up there,
and yet two or three hundred miles away people are
making harghf for silage half the hay, maybe even less
than that, and they typically be making. And we're seeing
big differences across the UK in terms of soil types.
Speaker 5 (34:07):
So the lighter soils the crops have been dying off
in the drought.
Speaker 6 (34:11):
The heavier soils that we often curse as we you know,
sometimes do on our farm, but our heavier soils have
held out and we are we are two thirds of
the way through a pretty average harvest, which frankly i'd
have snapped your hand off, or if you'd offered me
a month ago.
Speaker 2 (34:26):
I see.
Speaker 3 (34:27):
The call has come for UK farmers to take climate
change seriously, because the Met Office has issued a stark
warning that the UK is now experiencing a notably different
climate than it did just a few decades ago, a
shift or riving already having a visible impact on farming. Tom,
I don't know how long you've been on the family
farm for, but are you seeing that notable shift?
Speaker 6 (34:50):
Absolutely, And there are people all over who are who
are who are skeptical, but there is no doubt that
our weather systems are changing. That means more extreme weather,
it doesn't necessarily and we're certainly getting hotter summers. I mean,
we're we're we're seeing that significantly. But you know, we
get a cold patch in the winter and everyone says
(35:11):
our global warming is a load of nonsense, but we're
getting more extreme weather. So we are getting some colder weather,
we're getting some wetter weather, we're getting long periods of
dry time. And the UK climate we're like you guys,
we're a maritime climate. We are used to and we're
built on relatively mild weather, relatively frequent rain, and we've
(35:31):
seen that's caused huge, huge issues for our wildlife, for
food production in the last few months with the drought.
But we you know, we had a tremendously wet sewing
time back in September and as I look at some
of my yield maps, from the combine. We've been less
affective by the drought. They're more affected by the wet
in the winter. So you know we're getting we're getting
(35:53):
extremes of wet and dry, hot and cold, more than
we would have previously in the one year. So we're
absolutely at the you know, the cold face when it
comes to comes to climate change, in climate variability.
Speaker 3 (36:06):
All right, Tom, I'll let you go to bed. Thanks
for your time.
Speaker 5 (36:09):
Everybody beside a.
Speaker 3 (36:11):
Tack okay, wrapping the Country. It's brought to you by Bratton.
My name is Jamie McKay. No Christopher luxon tomorrow's show.
I think on tomorrow's show. I think he's in Papa
New Guinea. We might have to try Todd McClay. I
think he might be in Thailand. Or maybe Nichola willis
a butted with Nicola. Who knows. Anyhow, Thanks for listening today.
(36:35):
We really do appreciate it. Lots of feedback coming in
about the Alliance Group recapitalization. It's the story we'll find
out about next week.
Speaker 1 (36:49):
Catch you're the latest from the land. It's The Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to Brent, your specialist in
John Dee machinery,
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