December 16, 2024 • 36 mins
Jamie Mackay talks to Shane Jones, Cameron Bagrie, Mark de Lautour, and John McOviney.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's The Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to friends. You're specialist in
John Deere construction.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Equipment, Gada, New Zealand. Welcome to the Country. It's brought
(00:31):
to you by Brent. My name is Jamie mckaye. She's
Lady Gaga. That's her version of Santa Claus is coming
to town. It's not bad, is it? As we count
down to Christmas, we have got a great prize on
our countdown to Christmas today, courtesy of vet med. I'm
going to tell you about it a wee bit later. Well,
i'll tell you about it now, A thousand dollars voucher
(00:51):
from R M Williams. How good would that be? The one?
More about that later. We're going to kick off the
show with my favorite politician of twenty twenty four, Cameron
Baggry's my favorite economist of twenty twenty four. We're going
to have a look at the numbers. We're going to
crunch the numbers ahead of this afternoon's a half year
economical and fiscal update. Mark de Latour, chief executive of
(01:16):
Open Country. Derry surely he's got to meet the market
Fonterra is at ten, Sin Lays at ten what's Open
Country going to do? And John mcavinnie Ortomo Sheep and
Beef Farmer, chief executive of steell Fort who's his ad
Person of the year. We'll have rural news and sports
news for you as well, and as I said, your
chance to win with our count down to Christmas. He
(01:51):
is the Minister of digging it up and damning it up.
His name is Shane Jones, Martua, Shane Jones. The Prince
of the province is Shane. This week I'm asking all
my regular of which you are one, for their ag
Person of the year, So think about that. But believe
it or not, Shane Jones, you are my politician of
the year for telling it how it is and fighting
(02:11):
the good war against woke.
Speaker 3 (02:13):
Good afternoon, Thank you very much, Thank you very much.
Speaker 2 (02:18):
Well, you did come out with some excellent quotes this year,
and I'm just looking at some of the stuff that
you did on our show and Michelle's going to put
together a montage of your quotes. But one of them
I liked was I don't care about those woke riddled
munchkins who want to fry eggs on on solar panels.
But your quote of the year that made the Quote
of the Year finalists, the massive University Quote of the
(02:39):
Year came from last year. You said, if there's a
mining opportunity and it's impeded by a blind frog, goodbye, Freddie.
It was a recurring theme.
Speaker 4 (02:48):
Well, look, make everyone knows, including people on your show,
if you want to make an impact in politics, language
is a powerful weapon, but you've got to put the
effort in. Over many years, I've enjoyed reading and debating,
and hey, I've come off second besses a few scar
what passes.
Speaker 3 (03:05):
From my anatomy.
Speaker 4 (03:07):
But I'm not going to change. And I think that
one of the things that coming on your show demonstrates
that if you're consistent in your message, then you can
shift the pendulum. But at all times, Jamie, we've got
to ask ourselves why why do you want to shift
the pendulum. We need to shift the pendulum, mate, because
we need to turbocharge and in spirit ourselves. Well, we
(03:29):
should be more optimistic than we are. Stick to death
of seeing hundreds of young people one hundred and thirty
thousand quis.
Speaker 3 (03:37):
Many of them won't come.
Speaker 4 (03:39):
Well, I get the mining going and there's big announcements
to this afternoon.
Speaker 3 (03:44):
Don't you worry they'll be coming home.
Speaker 2 (03:46):
So this is obviously a bad news for Freddy the
frog and various other skinks and lizards.
Speaker 3 (03:53):
You know well as I do. Freddy's only in the
departure outch. There's more fogs than the puku of.
Speaker 4 (03:58):
The Bloody Captain Cook, a pig up and coral mandle
under the tracks of the bulldozer Bud.
Speaker 2 (04:03):
Can we afford under your regime to save the environment
or is it the hell with the environment.
Speaker 4 (04:08):
No, we've just challenged the ideologists and these mung been
nibblers who think that the environment is their conception of
what is the world of nature. No, the environment is
where people live as well. And if you're going to
have a balanced economy that generates the economic surplus to
(04:29):
pay for the very things that people are taking for granted,
then we need bos. And there's nothing wrong with me
saying that. It's just that New Zealand hasn't attracted public
figures for a long period of time. Who's prepared to
call the Green Empress or Emperor out as not actually
having anything under under their.
Speaker 2 (04:49):
Shane Joan's not a great line here, let's continue battling
on Are we winning the war on woke?
Speaker 3 (04:56):
It's an ongoing struggle.
Speaker 4 (04:57):
We've got a new generation coming through and they have
been infused with a whole bunch of ideas through the
education system that the planet is burning and the world
is boiling, and as it's going to be instructive and
supportive of them, because the reality is economics will trump
hare in the absence of economic.
Speaker 3 (05:16):
Surplus, we're not going to have the income or we're
not going to have the opportunity.
Speaker 4 (05:20):
But I'm doing my bit day by day to call
out those excesses.
Speaker 2 (05:25):
As twenty twenty five and I'm putting it to you
that it will be. Is twenty twenty five going to
be a better year financially than twenty twenty four, which
ended up being worse financially than I thought. Because this
time a year ago, Shane, I was probably saying to you,
twenty twenty four is going to be better than twenty three.
Speaker 4 (05:40):
It wasn't really, no, no, no, We've been through some
shocking circumstances economically speaking, but hey, mister trumps town in America,
so there'll be a new level of uncertainty. But I
think that twenty twenty five, if you can see twenty
twenty five a, it's going to be a couple of optimism.
Speaker 2 (06:00):
So on that note, what does twenty twenty five hold
for you? No doubt you'll be having a break in
the far North? Will you and Winston be gathering for
a quiet point at the Duke of Marlborough.
Speaker 4 (06:11):
That's a highly celebrated site of political discourse and cultural celebration.
Winston and I are going to have a great break
in the Northeast, traveled all over the world. But look,
twenty twenty five is going to be let's be honest.
As politicians, we've got to provide leadership. And I don't
just mean the vision thing. I mean demonstrating why.
Speaker 3 (06:34):
And what's the value of the decisions that we make.
Speaker 4 (06:37):
And in twenty twenty five people are going to be
not only clapping from the orchestra chamber, but they're going
to see why we've had to do and say the
things and deliver on the things in twenty twenty fourth.
This takes a bit of time in politics for the
full results to be seen. It's a little bit like farming.
You apply the fertilizer, you take a punt. You do
(06:58):
things that have a long term, but you profoundly believe
in yourself and the decisions that you're making.
Speaker 3 (07:03):
Politics is not much different.
Speaker 4 (07:05):
It's got to communicate it to the market, which is
otherwise known as the voter.
Speaker 2 (07:09):
What do you say to the people who say Shane
Jones has done nothing but spout fertilizer all year.
Speaker 4 (07:16):
Well, you know, a bit of manure, A bit of
manure makes the crop grow. And I may have manured
some of the barren minds of the political atmosphere with
a green word that are.
Speaker 2 (07:25):
Green organic manure. Let's just finish on your ag person
of the Air. I don't know how deeply you've thought
about this, because I've just thrown it at you.
Speaker 3 (07:34):
Who is it not? Miles? Definitely Miles, Miles hrral.
Speaker 2 (07:39):
Do you know the other name that's being bandied about,
And it's not you or Winston, it's Todd McLay for
getting off his backside getting on a plane. He's an
in there as we speak. So is he a worthy mention?
Speaker 1 (07:50):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (07:50):
And of course, but i'd put them in the political sphere,
you know. Miles, in my view, is by and large
taking Pontera back to where it always should have been.
He's overcome that awful legacy of the Dutchman. But more importantly,
I think he's helped to deliver money into the economy.
There's a few things that we scrap about by the
future of some of the brands.
Speaker 3 (08:11):
But give the guy his full tunes, mate.
Speaker 4 (08:14):
Without fan fear and without hyperbole, because he's not a politician.
Speaker 3 (08:19):
He's delivered for the country.
Speaker 2 (08:21):
Well, Shane Jones, you enjoy your break and if you do,
by chance, come across a frog, kiss it and he
may end up being a Prince of the Provinces. How
do you like that? For a final shot?
Speaker 3 (08:33):
Can't better that?
Speaker 4 (08:34):
Bro?
Speaker 2 (08:35):
Good on your Shane, Thanks for your time. He's brilliant,
isn't he? Fifteen after twelve? Some of your feedback on
the Prince of the Provinces coming through? Shit? Can I
say shit? Michelle? Good afternoon? By the way, CANIZ say Shane?
It's a farming program. We were talking about manure with
Shane and whether he had been spouting a bit of it.
Well he has, but in a very humorous sort of way.
(08:58):
So this right text, it's shit. I love Shane Jones,
not afraid to say it like it doesn't tear the
woke pieces, which is good. I've enjoyed the War on
woken twenty twenty four.
Speaker 5 (09:10):
Is that your title for twenty twenty four, the War
on bos? I guess it's a good name.
Speaker 4 (09:13):
I think.
Speaker 2 (09:14):
I think we've fought back against the evilness of wokeness,
which was overtaking the world. We've got a wicket in Hamilton.
By the way, Joe Root was going along nicely. Ah,
but he's no answer to the great Mitchell Satner. Cheese's
having a good Test, so he's lbw T Satana for
fifty four. I was going to say, Australia, let me
(09:35):
try that again. England England one hundred and thirty three
for the loss of four wickets. Have we lost another one? Oh? Jeez?
Harry Brook's out as well. I was just looking at
the Talian moment ago and I'm looking at my screen
in here. We've lost two quick wickets. Gee, Joe Root
(09:57):
and Harry Brook, the guy who was the next Bradman.
He's out for one off six balls court Daryl Mitchell
Bold Will O'Rourke. How good is that young man?
Speaker 3 (10:09):
Well?
Speaker 2 (10:10):
Where was this form in the first two Tests against England?
This is going to be This is going to be
all over very shortly. I think won't get to day five. Okay,
So Michelle, this is Lady Gaga. Where's she gone? She
was in there? Good cover, good cover of Santa Claus
is coming to town. I'm very excited about today's countdown
to Christmas. We've had some great prizes and we've got
(10:30):
some great prizes to come for the rest of the
week's Silver Fern Farms with the meat and the barbecue gear.
And then on Thursday we've got Rabobank with the thousand
dollars cash not for you, but for the charity of
your choice. Better to give than receipt. But today, courtesy
of vet Med, I love VetMed, they have got a
one thousand dollars voucher from R. M Williams.
Speaker 5 (10:55):
You're very excited about that.
Speaker 2 (10:57):
Look, honestly, I love R M Williams. I've had three
sets of boots over my career. I've got the dress
ones and then the middle ones which are for nice
field days, and then the older ones are there if
it's muddy or we're going to rugby, right so you
can dress according to the conditions. So what we've got
courtesy of VetMed who have a passion for making quality
(11:21):
and innovative animal health products for New Zealand livestock. They're
proudly in New Zealand owned and New Zealand made good
on your VetMed. They've got a comprehension, comprehensive range of
products available at PGG rights and your annual vets, your
local vet and that is nationwide. You can also check
them out at VetMed dot co dot nz. This is
(11:43):
a great price if you want to win the thousand
dollars RM Williams voucher, it'll buy you a set of
RM Williams boots or a pair of boots and about
and something else. Actually, the nugget or the leather conditioner
that you buy from them is to die for. We'll
look after. I'm really getting on get off on this
the rest of us a polish yeah, exactly, exactly. Okay.
(12:05):
So if you want to win this, you need to
text your name, text win, should I say, with your
name and where you're listening from to five double O
nine to be and to win. We'll announce the winner
on tomorrow's show. Yesterday, Michelle, we had the whistle and
Pop Dog Dog Whistle necklace's brilliant silver jewelry. Who was
the winner of that?
Speaker 5 (12:26):
The lucky winner of those two necklaces was Liz Birdling
from Little River and Banks Peninsula. So congratulations Liz. Someone
very lucky or yourself maybe is gifting yourself thoselars.
Speaker 2 (12:36):
Have you been to Little River?
Speaker 5 (12:37):
I have, it's beautiful cycled out there.
Speaker 2 (12:40):
Yeah, it's a it's a great part of the country.
We're bit dry at the moment as I understand it.
So well done to Liz Birdling from Little River and
Banks Peninsula. You live in a lovely part of the
world and now you've got some lovely, lovely jewelry from
Whistle and Pop Necklaces to go with it. Up next,
we crunched the final numbers for twenty twenty four. It's
(13:02):
Cameron Bagri.
Speaker 1 (13:12):
The member's nafteen.
Speaker 2 (13:14):
Really is that this wrapping the year twenty twenty four.
Let's look at the financial year twenty twenty four and beyond,
in fact, right out to the financial year twenty eight
twenty nine. Cameron Bagri Independent Economists, when apparently we're going
to be back in surplus. We've got those high EFU
numbers out today. It's the half year Economic Fiscal update.
(13:36):
Not good numbers expected.
Speaker 6 (13:38):
Oh, I don't think they're going to be good numbers.
We've had the Chief Economic Advisor with the Treasury and
the Reserve Bank have both been out in the past
month basically reinforcing the fact that we've got a productivity problem.
When you've got a productivity problem, that means you've got
an economic growth problem. When you've got an economic growth problem,
that means you're not going to have the text revenue
flowing in the door to the degree that you want.
(14:00):
So that paints a picture that I think we're going
to struggle to get back from deficit to surplus and
the government's going to face some pretty tough choices going
forward because if you don't have the money coming in
the door, you can't force some money out the door
on the other side, So that means fiscal austerity and
you know how far they go with that. There's still
the million dollar question. But those those accounts, you are,
(14:22):
the books that we're going to see today are not
going to be paint a pretty picture.
Speaker 2 (14:26):
Well, it's a big week financially. I think what tomorrow
is something like current account GDP numbers out on Thursday,
we're expecting, well, some of the economists, I'll be interested
to get your number on this, forecasting a zero point
four percent four Whatever the result is, we're back in recession.
Speaker 6 (14:43):
It looks like yeah, but we've been in recession for
most of twenty twenty four. That's a bit of pill
they've had to swallow. In regard to getting rid of inflation.
You don't get rid of inflation unless you beat the
economy up. The Reserve Bank has done that. We're going
to get confirmation of September quarter numbers later this week,
(15:05):
but of course they are September quarter numbers. You know,
let's not forget that we're now in December. That the
high frequency indicators, you know, they're telling us that the
economy has now got forward propulsion back in the December quarter.
And I'm looking ahead to twenty twenty five. And the
biggest you, Jamie, is is not what we're going to
see in the rearview mirror. It's going to be the
quality of the economic revival we're going to see over
(15:26):
twenty twenty five. And we're not going to see a
quality economic revival at less. We get productivity growth storming
through and they still the media dollar question in regard
to whether it is that productivity growth going to come from, well.
Speaker 2 (15:37):
I would suggest to you, in fact, I would suggest
very strongly it's going to come from the primary sector.
With the likes of Fonterra leading the charge.
Speaker 6 (15:45):
Yeah, they they've done a magnificent job turning things around
over the past three years. Over Look at the enjine
X and we've set in the success stories. If one,
Pira has been probably top of the pile in regard
to that, and then you've seen some other stories with
the Warehouse Group. You look at Fletcher Building. It's amazing
what happens Jane, and you go through tough times. You
find out who's any bloody good and al and behold
(16:08):
for some companies that have shone, they've done really well.
They've got turned things around. With some other companies that
have suffered because they're just not fit for purpose. It's
a great edited by One and Buffet. When the tie
goes out, you find out who's naked.
Speaker 2 (16:22):
Yeah, exactly. Now we are being helped I guess by
a low exchange rate. And I say I guess because
fifty eight cents is fine and dandy for US exporters.
Not so good for everything we import. And as a
nation that's running a deficit, we possibly import more than
we export, do we?
Speaker 6 (16:42):
Yeah, Well, the current account deficit, that's our national checkbook
with the rest of the world. It's around it's a
negative number, around six point seven percentage points of JDP.
And what's that telling us? We spend too much? Have
we earn too little? And there's a whole lot of
various reasons that go into that. But what we need
(17:02):
to see is that the economics scrum needs to be
screwed a little bit more towards exporting more and then
putting less. And what we've seen partly curtisy of a
higher US dollar which sort of drives in New Zealand
dollar down. The New Zealand US dollar there's pivoted. It's
now below sixty cents, and I would not be surprised
(17:22):
to see a lot of run towards fifty five. But
the biggest issue here is that we need to see
that New zeal On US dollar supportive of the export community,
not just for the ex sort of twelve months. We
need to see it supportive of the export community for
the next five years.
Speaker 2 (17:36):
It's anyone's guess what's going to happen with the US
economy in twenty twenty five, because we're all kind of
waiting Cameron Bagriy with bait and breath to see what
Trump does.
Speaker 6 (17:48):
Well, it's not just about Trump. If you look at
what we've seen over the past for a few months,
it's pretty clear in the United States that inflation's preven
be a little bit sticky, and there's the olds that
have adit. Thats yard is always the hardest in regard
to getting on top of inflation, and the US Better
Reserve has been easing interest rates. But if you look
at core inflating in the United States, it's sitting around
(18:10):
three to three point five. It's supposed to be at two.
So what's happened to Your financial markets have backed off
the degree or the expectation by which they believe US
interest rates are going to come down, And of course
the Reserve banker here in his hland has been cutting
interest rates fifty basis points. I've laid another fifty basis points.
(18:31):
It looks like in February as well. Why because they're
getting on top of inflation, because they've beaten up the
economy and awful lot more. So it doesn't matter whether
you look at the interestrate differential or another big driver
of currencies this is productivity growth. And the United States
productivity is running around two percent. Our productivity growth is
a negot number. So we need that lower currency to
screw the scrum once again in favor of exporting, the
(18:54):
favor of your getting a little bit more money into
the productive part of the economy.
Speaker 2 (18:57):
From a high five point five percent o CIRA is
down now to four point two five percent. We've had
a fifty or fifty and a twenty five point drop.
Where do you see it bottoming out in twenty twenty
five or does it bottom out in twenty twenty five?
Where's neutral?
Speaker 6 (19:15):
So the neutral rate where the reserve banks neither got
the foot and the acceleerate or the break that number
according to the Reserve Bank and most economists looks to
be around three to three and a half. So where
that dune is as well and truly underway in regard
to return into neutral. If we go through really tough times,
(19:36):
yeah we might need to go below neutral. But that's
the first point of court in regard to where within
the official cash rate is going to end up as
that three to three and a half persent zone.
Speaker 2 (19:44):
Just to finish one. I've been asking all my regulars,
of which you've been kind enough to be one in
twenty twenty four, who your ad Person of the year is.
Why do I think you're going to go with Fonterra.
Speaker 6 (19:57):
Because it's based on merit and if you look at
the turnaround you're what they've achieved over the past two
to three years remarkable. You hack tip to the CEO
and it's not just a CEO but the chairman of
the board.
Speaker 2 (20:10):
So who's your agg person of the air Miles Hurrell
or Peter McBride.
Speaker 6 (20:14):
Oh, one of the output the broad story here is
it what's going on at poet Peril and it needs
to recognize good stuff?
Speaker 2 (20:21):
Well, Cameron Bagory, I know you've got a lot of
numbers to crunch over the next three days. It's a
big week of financial announcements. Thanks for taking some time
out to chat to us, and we'll catch you back
next year.
Speaker 6 (20:32):
All the best for Christmas and safe traders every week everybody,
and I'll beware are the road UNEs exactly?
Speaker 2 (20:38):
Surely they'll put the road cones away for Christmas? Thanks Cameron,
a We're going to take a break. Rural news, sports
news on the other side of it. In the cricket
one hundred and forty for four Chasing six hundred and
fifty eight, Brooke and Joe Route are gone, So up
next Oral news, Sports news, Mark Delator, John mcavinnie to come.
Speaker 7 (20:58):
What's in this dreams out there?
Speaker 2 (21:04):
Maybe just a half of it is twenty seven away
from one. We found a new music category in our library,
Christmas country Songs. Yay, this is Lady Antebellum and maybe
it's cold outside. Here is Michelle with the latest in
rural news.
Speaker 1 (21:20):
The country's world news with Cold Cadet, New Zealand's leading
right on lawnlower brand. Visit steel Ford dot co dot
nz for your local stockist.
Speaker 5 (21:29):
A cold blast from Antarctica has moved over the country,
causing temperatures to plummet to ten degrees in twenty four hours.
Masterton's maximums are expected to drop from yesterday's twenty seven
degrees to fifteen degrees and Hastings from twenty nine to eighteen.
Wellington temperatures are only expected to climb to thirteen degree
degrees today, and a ten degree dropped from the twenty
(21:51):
three degree average. Parts of the country today woke to
a wintery feel, with Queenstown recording at Chili three degrees
and christ Church on nine degrees am this morning.
Speaker 2 (22:01):
When I was a kid in the nineteen sixties in Riversdal,
we had snow on Christmas Day. Beat that, Michelle. Put
that in your pipe and smoke it. That is so so.
Speaker 1 (22:10):
Where it's been gone Kiwi to the bone since nineteen
oh four.
Speaker 2 (22:14):
Oh, sorry for talking over you, AFCO. I love AFCO.
Right Sports News updating the cricket one hundred and forty
eight for four Ali. Who's who's in there? Olli Pope
and somebody else? Oh Bethel the baby faced Bethel's there?
Seventy are not out and also Manly NRL coach Anthony
(22:34):
Seabolt has been handed a two year contract extension to
stay at Brookvale until twenty twenty seven. Up next, I'm
going to put the bite the pressure on Mark de
Latour from Open Country Dairy see if we can squeeze
ten dollars out of him. As we count down to Christmas.
Remember text win in your name where you're listening from
to five double nine to B and to win the
(22:55):
RM Williams voucher worth one thousand bucks from the Great
Team Vet Med.
Speaker 8 (23:01):
It's down to the.
Speaker 2 (23:06):
Jem for the final time in twenty twenty four. It's
the chief executive of Open Country Dairy, Mark Delatour, our
second biggest dairy company behind Fonterra. Now Mark Fonterra is
at ten bucks, sin Lay, is it ten bucks at
Open Country? You're dragging the chain? Come on, make my day.
Speaker 7 (23:27):
Buck Get up, n Jamie. I think you've rung the
wrong number.
Speaker 3 (23:31):
Have young?
Speaker 7 (23:31):
Do you mean to ring the North Pole? Are you
at to Santa Well?
Speaker 2 (23:34):
I'm wanting you. I'm wanting you to play Santa Claus
for the Open Country dairy suppliers.
Speaker 7 (23:40):
I don't know if we're dragging the chain, Jamie. We've
just come out with our next period forecast. It's between
nine to seventy and ten ten. So we're there are thereabouts.
We're always there thereabouts, Jamie. So I think if if
the milk season z ends up at teen dollars, we
can talk then and you know we'll be there. From
my point of view, Jamie, it's it's careful. Optimism is
(24:02):
where we're at. And I think you know right now
prices are right there where it's ten dollars is playing out.
But you know, I think I've just come back from China, Jamie,
and I still hold the view that we need to
be careful. You know, these these things do up, must
come down, and what goes down must come up, so
(24:24):
you know, whether we can hold the whole season at
these prices. I'd rather be cautious, you know, make sure
everyone's expectations are right, and if we get there, we
get there. But no one, no one will accuse me
of singing from the tree tops too loud. So I
think we're we're We're positive that it's going to be
a really, really good season and if we upperform, then
(24:47):
we outperform.
Speaker 2 (24:49):
Why am I hearing this story out of China? My
guy over there, I hope to catch him this week.
Hunter McGregor keeps telling me he said the recovery is
not happening on the ground. But I'm hearing from other
dairy companies. I'm hearing from meat companies that does increase
demand from China. Why are we getting this mixed messaging?
Speaker 7 (25:06):
Yeah, I think I think he's probably right, Jamie. I
hate to say that, but I think he's probably right.
What we're seeing right now is a is a shortfall
in imageries from Chinese buars. And you know that market
does tend to react really really positively and really really
negatively depending on the sentiment at the time. So having
(25:27):
just come from China, you know, what we've seen is
some of the local milk powder has been locked away
now between now and Chinese New Year. So the big
producers of the domestic powder have said, we're not selling
that anymore, and we're not selling it until we know
what's happening through Chinese New Year. And that was a
(25:49):
direct result of the last quarter domestic milk production being
down seven or eight per cent Jamie. So some of
that talk that we've been talking about with culling of
the domestic where he heard, has eventuated and we've seen
a seven or eight cent top in local milk production.
And so the big producers of milk powder over there said,
(26:10):
we're just going to hold onto in the trees now
see the Chinese New Year comes out before we start
looking at selling again. And that was the key message
we got while we were there. And what that's done
is that's triggered a little bit of you know, quite
a bit of activity, panic activity, i should say, on
the GDT auctions in the short term, and you know
we're all reaping the benefits of that Janie as a result.
(26:33):
Whether it can continue for the rest of the season,
I'm just not sure.
Speaker 3 (26:39):
The retail sales just.
Speaker 7 (26:40):
Came out overnight from from China and there's there's blood
on the floor. So I just I think i'd rather
be I don't want to be the profit of just
I do just want to be the cautious optimist.
Speaker 2 (26:51):
Well, well, let's have a look at New Zealand domestic production,
because what I'm hearing is that it's good all around
the country effectively, with the exception of South and whether
they've gone from a rice paddy to whether they're now
looking for a wee bit of rain, believe it or not.
But they just didn't get the peak down there.
Speaker 7 (27:08):
Yeah, that's exactly, it's perfect summary. They're just they've missed
down on that that that peak down there. Production is
pretty good at the moment. You know, the plant our
side is running well and there's milk flowing, but they've
certainly missed that peak a month or so ago. North
Island continues to be strong I mean the Longui plant
(27:30):
is that capacity. We're moving a bit of milk around
to be able to deal deal with it. So it's it's,
you know, a very very good, strong volume season for
New Zealand overall.
Speaker 2 (27:42):
Who's your ag person of the air? Are you going
to be like everyone else? And picked Miles Hurrel from
Fonterra somehow, I don't think you will.
Speaker 7 (27:50):
Well, I'm just going to go with the mass now
and we'll go with the sheep and say why not
because I'm happy with how that how they've managed the
manage the dudyt and managed their supply. So you know,
I was probably pretty critical laughter year when they put
a bit of extra volume on the market just when
we didn't need it. So if I'm going to say
(28:11):
that sort of thing, I'll pat him on the back
when things are going well. So you know, when you're
that big, we all have to rely on them to
make good decisions. And Miles done a good job this year.
Speaker 2 (28:22):
Well that's very generous of you to say, so credit
where credits?
Speaker 7 (28:25):
Sure, Joe, I'm sure he reciprocate and put me down
and says.
Speaker 2 (28:28):
Well he's on the show tomorrow, so I'll ask him
if I'll ask him if you can be his ag
person of the Year, if he can reciprocate. Hey, Mark Delatour,
thank you very much. It's been good catching up with
you throughout twenty twenty four. Let's make twenty twenty five
a prosperous new dairy year. Very good, Mark Delatour, Open
(28:50):
Country Dairy seventeen away from one. As we go, Christmas
and Country. This is Tata's version of Like Christmas. Up next,
John mcavinie, famous for being a white Tomo sheep and
beef farmer, famous for being the chief executive of Steelfort,
and famous for having Tom Phillips, the Mara Cooper Hugitive,
(29:12):
running around his farm. He's up next. And remember, if
you want the Rm Williams voucher, we'll tell you how
to win that, worth a thousand bucks before the end
of the hour. Rapping the year that was twenty twenty
(29:37):
four with their regulars. Here is one of them. He's
a great supporter of this show. He's a white Tomo
sheep and beef farmer. When he's not doing that, he's
the chief executive of Steelfort. His name is John mcavini. John,
I'm really looking forward to your ag Person of the Year.
But let's start with the farming side of the equation first.
How are things going on the west coast of the
North Island?
Speaker 8 (29:58):
Well too, Jamie. The last couple of months it's been outstanding.
We've had plenty of rain. I know it's a bit
tough for the guys on the East coast, but we've
had plenty of rain. We've we've docked again close to
ten thousand lambs. We've tagged and docked all the calves.
You know, when I was out there last they're looking,
you know, absolutely magnificent. We've got grass for Africa. So
(30:22):
you know, from my point of view, the farmer is looking,
you know, the beast that's looked for a long long time.
So you know, we're pretty happy with the season.
Speaker 2 (30:30):
But are you making any money? John?
Speaker 8 (30:33):
I will be if I get what I want from
my lambs. I've held some lambs back. You know, we
were going to draft you know, fifteen hundred lambs this
week and you know, we just went offered enough money
for them. You know, they were about five or six
bucks more than last year, and I said, Cabrient, you know,
I'm not going to sell them at that price. Not
with what I think is going to happen with the
Lamb price. So we're just going to hang on to
(30:55):
them until January. And I'm not prepared to you know.
I mean, you know what they do is they draft
the beast lams first, and of course all the good
ones go and the first fifteen hundred go, and then
you're struggling, you know, to catch the other ones up.
So you know, I'm hanging onto them until mid January,
even late January, John, or we draft and hopefully.
Speaker 2 (31:16):
John, do you know? Do you know something I don't know?
Traditionally the Lamb schedule always drops after Christmas.
Speaker 8 (31:22):
No, there was a statement the other day that my
agent sent me and said that the lamb price is
actually going up. So I'm hoping he's right, and I'm
just going to hang on to them till they do
come up. I mean, the market's a lot better than
it's a dollar ahead of whatever was last year, So
why isn't that reflected it in the pricing?
Speaker 2 (31:41):
And it needs to be mind you to be realistic, John,
and you're a successful businessman, you know how to turn
a buck. Lamb needs to be ten dollars a kilo.
It needs to be the same price as milk.
Speaker 8 (31:52):
Yeah, absolutely, you know, I mean we sell as you know,
we sell all the Lamb's Score and you know we
should be getting out and twenty bucks plus for them
now and not ninety dollars and you know which they
have been for the last twelve eighty months. You know,
there's just no money in it for us for that.
You know, we should be making reasonable money. It's a
(32:13):
great product and I'm just not prepared to sell them
for that sort of money. So I'll just hang on
till it does come back.
Speaker 2 (32:19):
Put on your steel forught hat for a moment. Are
you selling lawn mowers? Has it been a good season
for selling lawn mowers? There won't be many lawns cut
in Napier and hastings at the moment.
Speaker 8 (32:30):
Well, it's it's certainly come right in the last probably month,
you know, five weeks, it's come right. Look, it's been
you know, I'll make no excuse.
Speaker 3 (32:39):
There's been sticky right up until.
Speaker 8 (32:41):
You know, the beginning of this year and from the
beginning of this year right through and you know we're
down you know, probably ten twelve percent on last year,
and it's been you know, it's been hard work. But
in the last month or so it said sixty come
back again. When we had a beautiful rain here yesterday
in Mount Wellanu, I mean we've probably had I would
(33:02):
say cup two or three inches yesterday and the place
is just transformed over and you can see the glass
growing in the whole country's pretty warm. So yeah, I'm
hoping that over the Christmas period, you know, things will
be a lot better.
Speaker 2 (33:16):
And when we get back in the new year. We
have got one of those cub cadets forty two inch
right on MOA's to give away. They are so good.
Rowena went out and did the video at Tim Dangel's
property out at Mirrouai there on the west coast, and
they are so good. Tim loved the moa that much
he's going to buy one. Hey, just before I let
you go, I want John mcaviniye your ag person of
(33:40):
the year. And I note that in the Herald this morning,
I think Simon Wilson woke Old Simon Wilson named Rod
Carr as his civil Servant of the year. I suspect,
knowing you, John, as I do, that Rod may not
be your ag person of the year.
Speaker 8 (33:56):
Well, I can tell you categorically, he would be on
the bottom of the list as far as I'm concerned.
I mean, if you have a reader that read that
column and in the Herald this morning written by Simon Wilson,
I mean, just have a look at the guy. I
don't need to say, well, hang.
Speaker 2 (34:13):
On, you can't judge your book by its cover, John,
Come on, Well.
Speaker 8 (34:16):
I don't say he's not an academic and he's not
a bright sort of fella, but he doesn't do much
for me, you know. I mean my egg person of
the Year, I'm actually on the horns of a deliver
and I'm not sure whether I should give it to
Damian O'Connor because if he gets Egg person of the Year,
he'll never get You don't have to ever worry about
(34:37):
labor getting in again because he just he is not
well liked amongst the farming community. But genuinely, my egg
Person of the Year would have to be Todd McClay.
You know, I think he's done an outstanding job in
the last twelve months. He's got fta's in the air
and Oman I think it was the other day, and
he's working on some more at the moment. He's been
(34:57):
outstanding so you know, from my point of view, he'd
be the egg person for me the year.
Speaker 2 (35:01):
He certainly gets an A for effort. Yeah, he's on
a plane as we speak, Onnor's way to or from
India to try and negotiate something there for us. John mcavene,
thank you to you and the team at steel Fort
Gave and all the team in Palmi North for supporting us.
And we've got that forty two inch right on MOA
to give away when we get back in the new year.
You have a good break and a prosperous new year.
Speaker 8 (35:23):
And Jamie the same to you and thank you for
your support for steel Ford during the year. And I
was very pleased to see you've got that gone during
the year, which I think is you know, I was
very pleased to see that happen. And I wish you
and listeners Mary Christmas and have a good holiday with
Penny and the family and we'll catch up in the
(35:45):
new year.
Speaker 2 (35:46):
Thank you for your kind words. Go well, pleasure, welcome
back to the country. Dis wrapping the show for you.
Another wicket in Hamilton, Tim Southey, farewell Test Match has
got Jacob Bethel, the baby face Jacob A. Bethel for
seventy six England one eighty seven for five Chasing six
(36:09):
hundred and fifty eight. You can forget about that now.
Remember if you want to win the thousand dollars voucher
from RM Williams, text win with your name and where
you're listening from to five, double O nine to B
into one. We'll announce the winner on tomorrow's show. It
is a fantastic prize. Thank you very much to the
team at VetMed making animal health products for New Zealand livestock.
(36:32):
That is a great prize to put up. Just think
how good you'll look in those RM Williams boots in
twenty twenty five. See you tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (36:45):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to Brands, the starkest of
the leading agriculture brands.
Catch all the latest from the land. It's The Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to friends. You're specialist in
John Deere construction.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Equipment, Gada, New Zealand. Welcome to the Country. It's brought
(00:31):
to you by Brent. My name is Jamie mckaye. She's
Lady Gaga. That's her version of Santa Claus is coming
to town. It's not bad, is it? As we count
down to Christmas, we have got a great prize on
our countdown to Christmas today, courtesy of vet med. I'm
going to tell you about it a wee bit later. Well,
i'll tell you about it now, A thousand dollars voucher
(00:51):
from R M Williams. How good would that be? The one?
More about that later. We're going to kick off the
show with my favorite politician of twenty twenty four, Cameron
Baggry's my favorite economist of twenty twenty four. We're going
to have a look at the numbers. We're going to
crunch the numbers ahead of this afternoon's a half year
economical and fiscal update. Mark de Latour, chief executive of
(01:16):
Open Country. Derry surely he's got to meet the market
Fonterra is at ten, Sin Lays at ten what's Open
Country going to do? And John mcavinnie Ortomo Sheep and
Beef Farmer, chief executive of steell Fort who's his ad
Person of the year. We'll have rural news and sports
news for you as well, and as I said, your
chance to win with our count down to Christmas. He
(01:51):
is the Minister of digging it up and damning it up.
His name is Shane Jones, Martua, Shane Jones. The Prince
of the province is Shane. This week I'm asking all
my regular of which you are one, for their ag
Person of the year, So think about that. But believe
it or not, Shane Jones, you are my politician of
the year for telling it how it is and fighting
(02:11):
the good war against woke.
Speaker 3 (02:13):
Good afternoon, Thank you very much, Thank you very much.
Speaker 2 (02:18):
Well, you did come out with some excellent quotes this year,
and I'm just looking at some of the stuff that
you did on our show and Michelle's going to put
together a montage of your quotes. But one of them
I liked was I don't care about those woke riddled
munchkins who want to fry eggs on on solar panels.
But your quote of the year that made the Quote
of the Year finalists, the massive University Quote of the
(02:39):
Year came from last year. You said, if there's a
mining opportunity and it's impeded by a blind frog, goodbye, Freddie.
It was a recurring theme.
Speaker 4 (02:48):
Well, look, make everyone knows, including people on your show,
if you want to make an impact in politics, language
is a powerful weapon, but you've got to put the
effort in. Over many years, I've enjoyed reading and debating,
and hey, I've come off second besses a few scar
what passes.
Speaker 3 (03:05):
From my anatomy.
Speaker 4 (03:07):
But I'm not going to change. And I think that
one of the things that coming on your show demonstrates
that if you're consistent in your message, then you can
shift the pendulum. But at all times, Jamie, we've got
to ask ourselves why why do you want to shift
the pendulum. We need to shift the pendulum, mate, because
we need to turbocharge and in spirit ourselves. Well, we
(03:29):
should be more optimistic than we are. Stick to death
of seeing hundreds of young people one hundred and thirty
thousand quis.
Speaker 3 (03:37):
Many of them won't come.
Speaker 4 (03:39):
Well, I get the mining going and there's big announcements
to this afternoon.
Speaker 3 (03:44):
Don't you worry they'll be coming home.
Speaker 2 (03:46):
So this is obviously a bad news for Freddy the
frog and various other skinks and lizards.
Speaker 3 (03:53):
You know well as I do. Freddy's only in the
departure outch. There's more fogs than the puku of.
Speaker 4 (03:58):
The Bloody Captain Cook, a pig up and coral mandle
under the tracks of the bulldozer Bud.
Speaker 2 (04:03):
Can we afford under your regime to save the environment
or is it the hell with the environment.
Speaker 4 (04:08):
No, we've just challenged the ideologists and these mung been
nibblers who think that the environment is their conception of
what is the world of nature. No, the environment is
where people live as well. And if you're going to
have a balanced economy that generates the economic surplus to
(04:29):
pay for the very things that people are taking for granted,
then we need bos. And there's nothing wrong with me
saying that. It's just that New Zealand hasn't attracted public
figures for a long period of time. Who's prepared to
call the Green Empress or Emperor out as not actually
having anything under under their.
Speaker 2 (04:49):
Shane Joan's not a great line here, let's continue battling
on Are we winning the war on woke?
Speaker 3 (04:56):
It's an ongoing struggle.
Speaker 4 (04:57):
We've got a new generation coming through and they have
been infused with a whole bunch of ideas through the
education system that the planet is burning and the world
is boiling, and as it's going to be instructive and
supportive of them, because the reality is economics will trump
hare in the absence of economic.
Speaker 3 (05:16):
Surplus, we're not going to have the income or we're
not going to have the opportunity.
Speaker 4 (05:20):
But I'm doing my bit day by day to call
out those excesses.
Speaker 2 (05:25):
As twenty twenty five and I'm putting it to you
that it will be. Is twenty twenty five going to
be a better year financially than twenty twenty four, which
ended up being worse financially than I thought. Because this
time a year ago, Shane, I was probably saying to you,
twenty twenty four is going to be better than twenty three.
Speaker 4 (05:40):
It wasn't really, no, no, no, We've been through some
shocking circumstances economically speaking, but hey, mister trumps town in America,
so there'll be a new level of uncertainty. But I
think that twenty twenty five, if you can see twenty
twenty five a, it's going to be a couple of optimism.
Speaker 2 (06:00):
So on that note, what does twenty twenty five hold
for you? No doubt you'll be having a break in
the far North? Will you and Winston be gathering for
a quiet point at the Duke of Marlborough.
Speaker 4 (06:11):
That's a highly celebrated site of political discourse and cultural celebration.
Winston and I are going to have a great break
in the Northeast, traveled all over the world. But look,
twenty twenty five is going to be let's be honest.
As politicians, we've got to provide leadership. And I don't
just mean the vision thing. I mean demonstrating why.
Speaker 3 (06:34):
And what's the value of the decisions that we make.
Speaker 4 (06:37):
And in twenty twenty five people are going to be
not only clapping from the orchestra chamber, but they're going
to see why we've had to do and say the
things and deliver on the things in twenty twenty fourth.
This takes a bit of time in politics for the
full results to be seen. It's a little bit like farming.
You apply the fertilizer, you take a punt. You do
(06:58):
things that have a long term, but you profoundly believe
in yourself and the decisions that you're making.
Speaker 3 (07:03):
Politics is not much different.
Speaker 4 (07:05):
It's got to communicate it to the market, which is
otherwise known as the voter.
Speaker 2 (07:09):
What do you say to the people who say Shane
Jones has done nothing but spout fertilizer all year.
Speaker 4 (07:16):
Well, you know, a bit of manure, A bit of
manure makes the crop grow. And I may have manured
some of the barren minds of the political atmosphere with
a green word that are.
Speaker 2 (07:25):
Green organic manure. Let's just finish on your ag person
of the Air. I don't know how deeply you've thought
about this, because I've just thrown it at you.
Speaker 3 (07:34):
Who is it not? Miles? Definitely Miles, Miles hrral.
Speaker 2 (07:39):
Do you know the other name that's being bandied about,
And it's not you or Winston, it's Todd McLay for
getting off his backside getting on a plane. He's an
in there as we speak. So is he a worthy mention?
Speaker 1 (07:50):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (07:50):
And of course, but i'd put them in the political sphere,
you know. Miles, in my view, is by and large
taking Pontera back to where it always should have been.
He's overcome that awful legacy of the Dutchman. But more importantly,
I think he's helped to deliver money into the economy.
There's a few things that we scrap about by the
future of some of the brands.
Speaker 3 (08:11):
But give the guy his full tunes, mate.
Speaker 4 (08:14):
Without fan fear and without hyperbole, because he's not a politician.
Speaker 3 (08:19):
He's delivered for the country.
Speaker 2 (08:21):
Well, Shane Jones, you enjoy your break and if you do,
by chance, come across a frog, kiss it and he
may end up being a Prince of the Provinces. How
do you like that? For a final shot?
Speaker 3 (08:33):
Can't better that?
Speaker 4 (08:34):
Bro?
Speaker 2 (08:35):
Good on your Shane, Thanks for your time. He's brilliant,
isn't he? Fifteen after twelve? Some of your feedback on
the Prince of the Provinces coming through? Shit? Can I
say shit? Michelle? Good afternoon? By the way, CANIZ say Shane?
It's a farming program. We were talking about manure with
Shane and whether he had been spouting a bit of it.
Well he has, but in a very humorous sort of way.
(08:58):
So this right text, it's shit. I love Shane Jones,
not afraid to say it like it doesn't tear the
woke pieces, which is good. I've enjoyed the War on
woken twenty twenty four.
Speaker 5 (09:10):
Is that your title for twenty twenty four, the War
on bos? I guess it's a good name.
Speaker 4 (09:13):
I think.
Speaker 2 (09:14):
I think we've fought back against the evilness of wokeness,
which was overtaking the world. We've got a wicket in Hamilton.
By the way, Joe Root was going along nicely. Ah,
but he's no answer to the great Mitchell Satner. Cheese's
having a good Test, so he's lbw T Satana for
fifty four. I was going to say, Australia, let me
(09:35):
try that again. England England one hundred and thirty three
for the loss of four wickets. Have we lost another one? Oh? Jeez?
Harry Brook's out as well. I was just looking at
the Talian moment ago and I'm looking at my screen
in here. We've lost two quick wickets. Gee, Joe Root
(09:57):
and Harry Brook, the guy who was the next Bradman.
He's out for one off six balls court Daryl Mitchell
Bold Will O'Rourke. How good is that young man?
Speaker 3 (10:09):
Well?
Speaker 2 (10:10):
Where was this form in the first two Tests against England?
This is going to be This is going to be
all over very shortly. I think won't get to day five. Okay,
So Michelle, this is Lady Gaga. Where's she gone? She
was in there? Good cover, good cover of Santa Claus
is coming to town. I'm very excited about today's countdown
to Christmas. We've had some great prizes and we've got
(10:30):
some great prizes to come for the rest of the
week's Silver Fern Farms with the meat and the barbecue gear.
And then on Thursday we've got Rabobank with the thousand
dollars cash not for you, but for the charity of
your choice. Better to give than receipt. But today, courtesy
of vet Med, I love VetMed, they have got a
one thousand dollars voucher from R. M Williams.
Speaker 5 (10:55):
You're very excited about that.
Speaker 2 (10:57):
Look, honestly, I love R M Williams. I've had three
sets of boots over my career. I've got the dress
ones and then the middle ones which are for nice
field days, and then the older ones are there if
it's muddy or we're going to rugby, right so you
can dress according to the conditions. So what we've got
courtesy of VetMed who have a passion for making quality
(11:21):
and innovative animal health products for New Zealand livestock. They're
proudly in New Zealand owned and New Zealand made good
on your VetMed. They've got a comprehension, comprehensive range of
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(11:43):
a great price if you want to win the thousand
dollars RM Williams voucher, it'll buy you a set of
RM Williams boots or a pair of boots and about
and something else. Actually, the nugget or the leather conditioner
that you buy from them is to die for. We'll
look after. I'm really getting on get off on this
the rest of us a polish yeah, exactly, exactly. Okay.
(12:05):
So if you want to win this, you need to
text your name, text win, should I say, with your
name and where you're listening from to five double O
nine to be and to win. We'll announce the winner
on tomorrow's show. Yesterday, Michelle, we had the whistle and
Pop Dog Dog Whistle necklace's brilliant silver jewelry. Who was
the winner of that?
Speaker 5 (12:26):
The lucky winner of those two necklaces was Liz Birdling
from Little River and Banks Peninsula. So congratulations Liz. Someone
very lucky or yourself maybe is gifting yourself thoselars.
Speaker 2 (12:36):
Have you been to Little River?
Speaker 5 (12:37):
I have, it's beautiful cycled out there.
Speaker 2 (12:40):
Yeah, it's a it's a great part of the country.
We're bit dry at the moment as I understand it.
So well done to Liz Birdling from Little River and
Banks Peninsula. You live in a lovely part of the
world and now you've got some lovely, lovely jewelry from
Whistle and Pop Necklaces to go with it. Up next,
we crunched the final numbers for twenty twenty four. It's
(13:02):
Cameron Bagri.
Speaker 1 (13:12):
The member's nafteen.
Speaker 2 (13:14):
Really is that this wrapping the year twenty twenty four.
Let's look at the financial year twenty twenty four and beyond,
in fact, right out to the financial year twenty eight
twenty nine. Cameron Bagri Independent Economists, when apparently we're going
to be back in surplus. We've got those high EFU
numbers out today. It's the half year Economic Fiscal update.
(13:36):
Not good numbers expected.
Speaker 6 (13:38):
Oh, I don't think they're going to be good numbers.
We've had the Chief Economic Advisor with the Treasury and
the Reserve Bank have both been out in the past
month basically reinforcing the fact that we've got a productivity problem.
When you've got a productivity problem, that means you've got
an economic growth problem. When you've got an economic growth problem,
that means you're not going to have the text revenue
flowing in the door to the degree that you want.
(14:00):
So that paints a picture that I think we're going
to struggle to get back from deficit to surplus and
the government's going to face some pretty tough choices going
forward because if you don't have the money coming in
the door, you can't force some money out the door
on the other side, So that means fiscal austerity and
you know how far they go with that. There's still
the million dollar question. But those those accounts, you are,
(14:22):
the books that we're going to see today are not
going to be paint a pretty picture.
Speaker 2 (14:26):
Well, it's a big week financially. I think what tomorrow
is something like current account GDP numbers out on Thursday,
we're expecting, well, some of the economists, I'll be interested
to get your number on this, forecasting a zero point
four percent four Whatever the result is, we're back in recession.
Speaker 6 (14:43):
It looks like yeah, but we've been in recession for
most of twenty twenty four. That's a bit of pill
they've had to swallow. In regard to getting rid of inflation.
You don't get rid of inflation unless you beat the
economy up. The Reserve Bank has done that. We're going
to get confirmation of September quarter numbers later this week,
(15:05):
but of course they are September quarter numbers. You know,
let's not forget that we're now in December. That the
high frequency indicators, you know, they're telling us that the
economy has now got forward propulsion back in the December quarter.
And I'm looking ahead to twenty twenty five. And the
biggest you, Jamie, is is not what we're going to
see in the rearview mirror. It's going to be the
quality of the economic revival we're going to see over
(15:26):
twenty twenty five. And we're not going to see a
quality economic revival at less. We get productivity growth storming
through and they still the media dollar question in regard
to whether it is that productivity growth going to come from, well.
Speaker 2 (15:37):
I would suggest to you, in fact, I would suggest
very strongly it's going to come from the primary sector.
With the likes of Fonterra leading the charge.
Speaker 6 (15:45):
Yeah, they they've done a magnificent job turning things around
over the past three years. Over Look at the enjine
X and we've set in the success stories. If one,
Pira has been probably top of the pile in regard
to that, and then you've seen some other stories with
the Warehouse Group. You look at Fletcher Building. It's amazing
what happens Jane, and you go through tough times. You
find out who's any bloody good and al and behold
(16:08):
for some companies that have shone, they've done really well.
They've got turned things around. With some other companies that
have suffered because they're just not fit for purpose. It's
a great edited by One and Buffet. When the tie
goes out, you find out who's naked.
Speaker 2 (16:22):
Yeah, exactly. Now we are being helped I guess by
a low exchange rate. And I say I guess because
fifty eight cents is fine and dandy for US exporters.
Not so good for everything we import. And as a
nation that's running a deficit, we possibly import more than
we export, do we?
Speaker 6 (16:42):
Yeah, Well, the current account deficit, that's our national checkbook
with the rest of the world. It's around it's a
negative number, around six point seven percentage points of JDP.
And what's that telling us? We spend too much? Have
we earn too little? And there's a whole lot of
various reasons that go into that. But what we need
(17:02):
to see is that the economics scrum needs to be
screwed a little bit more towards exporting more and then
putting less. And what we've seen partly curtisy of a
higher US dollar which sort of drives in New Zealand
dollar down. The New Zealand US dollar there's pivoted. It's
now below sixty cents, and I would not be surprised
(17:22):
to see a lot of run towards fifty five. But
the biggest issue here is that we need to see
that New zeal On US dollar supportive of the export community,
not just for the ex sort of twelve months. We
need to see it supportive of the export community for
the next five years.
Speaker 2 (17:36):
It's anyone's guess what's going to happen with the US
economy in twenty twenty five, because we're all kind of
waiting Cameron Bagriy with bait and breath to see what
Trump does.
Speaker 6 (17:48):
Well, it's not just about Trump. If you look at
what we've seen over the past for a few months,
it's pretty clear in the United States that inflation's preven
be a little bit sticky, and there's the olds that
have adit. Thats yard is always the hardest in regard
to getting on top of inflation, and the US Better
Reserve has been easing interest rates. But if you look
at core inflating in the United States, it's sitting around
(18:10):
three to three point five. It's supposed to be at two.
So what's happened to Your financial markets have backed off
the degree or the expectation by which they believe US
interest rates are going to come down, And of course
the Reserve banker here in his hland has been cutting
interest rates fifty basis points. I've laid another fifty basis points.
(18:31):
It looks like in February as well. Why because they're
getting on top of inflation, because they've beaten up the
economy and awful lot more. So it doesn't matter whether
you look at the interestrate differential or another big driver
of currencies this is productivity growth. And the United States
productivity is running around two percent. Our productivity growth is
a negot number. So we need that lower currency to
screw the scrum once again in favor of exporting, the
(18:54):
favor of your getting a little bit more money into
the productive part of the economy.
Speaker 2 (18:57):
From a high five point five percent o CIRA is
down now to four point two five percent. We've had
a fifty or fifty and a twenty five point drop.
Where do you see it bottoming out in twenty twenty
five or does it bottom out in twenty twenty five?
Where's neutral?
Speaker 6 (19:15):
So the neutral rate where the reserve banks neither got
the foot and the acceleerate or the break that number
according to the Reserve Bank and most economists looks to
be around three to three and a half. So where
that dune is as well and truly underway in regard
to return into neutral. If we go through really tough times,
(19:36):
yeah we might need to go below neutral. But that's
the first point of court in regard to where within
the official cash rate is going to end up as
that three to three and a half persent zone.
Speaker 2 (19:44):
Just to finish one. I've been asking all my regulars,
of which you've been kind enough to be one in
twenty twenty four, who your ad Person of the year is.
Why do I think you're going to go with Fonterra.
Speaker 6 (19:57):
Because it's based on merit and if you look at
the turnaround you're what they've achieved over the past two
to three years remarkable. You hack tip to the CEO
and it's not just a CEO but the chairman of
the board.
Speaker 2 (20:10):
So who's your agg person of the air Miles Hurrell
or Peter McBride.
Speaker 6 (20:14):
Oh, one of the output the broad story here is
it what's going on at poet Peril and it needs
to recognize good stuff?
Speaker 2 (20:21):
Well, Cameron Bagory, I know you've got a lot of
numbers to crunch over the next three days. It's a
big week of financial announcements. Thanks for taking some time
out to chat to us, and we'll catch you back
next year.
Speaker 6 (20:32):
All the best for Christmas and safe traders every week everybody,
and I'll beware are the road UNEs exactly?
Speaker 2 (20:38):
Surely they'll put the road cones away for Christmas? Thanks Cameron,
a We're going to take a break. Rural news, sports
news on the other side of it. In the cricket
one hundred and forty for four Chasing six hundred and
fifty eight, Brooke and Joe Route are gone, So up
next Oral news, Sports news, Mark Delator, John mcavinnie to come.
Speaker 7 (20:58):
What's in this dreams out there?
Speaker 2 (21:04):
Maybe just a half of it is twenty seven away
from one. We found a new music category in our library,
Christmas country Songs. Yay, this is Lady Antebellum and maybe
it's cold outside. Here is Michelle with the latest in
rural news.
Speaker 1 (21:20):
The country's world news with Cold Cadet, New Zealand's leading
right on lawnlower brand. Visit steel Ford dot co dot
nz for your local stockist.
Speaker 5 (21:29):
A cold blast from Antarctica has moved over the country,
causing temperatures to plummet to ten degrees in twenty four hours.
Masterton's maximums are expected to drop from yesterday's twenty seven
degrees to fifteen degrees and Hastings from twenty nine to eighteen.
Wellington temperatures are only expected to climb to thirteen degree
degrees today, and a ten degree dropped from the twenty
(21:51):
three degree average. Parts of the country today woke to
a wintery feel, with Queenstown recording at Chili three degrees
and christ Church on nine degrees am this morning.
Speaker 2 (22:01):
When I was a kid in the nineteen sixties in Riversdal,
we had snow on Christmas Day. Beat that, Michelle. Put
that in your pipe and smoke it. That is so so.
Speaker 1 (22:10):
Where it's been gone Kiwi to the bone since nineteen
oh four.
Speaker 2 (22:14):
Oh, sorry for talking over you, AFCO. I love AFCO.
Right Sports News updating the cricket one hundred and forty
eight for four Ali. Who's who's in there? Olli Pope
and somebody else? Oh Bethel the baby faced Bethel's there?
Seventy are not out and also Manly NRL coach Anthony
(22:34):
Seabolt has been handed a two year contract extension to
stay at Brookvale until twenty twenty seven. Up next, I'm
going to put the bite the pressure on Mark de
Latour from Open Country Dairy see if we can squeeze
ten dollars out of him. As we count down to Christmas.
Remember text win in your name where you're listening from
to five double nine to B and to win the
(22:55):
RM Williams voucher worth one thousand bucks from the Great
Team Vet Med.
Speaker 8 (23:01):
It's down to the.
Speaker 2 (23:06):
Jem for the final time in twenty twenty four. It's
the chief executive of Open Country Dairy, Mark Delatour, our
second biggest dairy company behind Fonterra. Now Mark Fonterra is
at ten bucks, sin Lay, is it ten bucks at
Open Country? You're dragging the chain? Come on, make my day.
Speaker 7 (23:27):
Buck Get up, n Jamie. I think you've rung the
wrong number.
Speaker 3 (23:31):
Have young?
Speaker 7 (23:31):
Do you mean to ring the North Pole? Are you
at to Santa Well?
Speaker 2 (23:34):
I'm wanting you. I'm wanting you to play Santa Claus
for the Open Country dairy suppliers.
Speaker 7 (23:40):
I don't know if we're dragging the chain, Jamie. We've
just come out with our next period forecast. It's between
nine to seventy and ten ten. So we're there are thereabouts.
We're always there thereabouts, Jamie. So I think if if
the milk season z ends up at teen dollars, we
can talk then and you know we'll be there. From
my point of view, Jamie, it's it's careful. Optimism is
(24:02):
where we're at. And I think you know right now
prices are right there where it's ten dollars is playing out.
But you know, I think I've just come back from China, Jamie,
and I still hold the view that we need to
be careful. You know, these these things do up, must
come down, and what goes down must come up, so
(24:24):
you know, whether we can hold the whole season at
these prices. I'd rather be cautious, you know, make sure
everyone's expectations are right, and if we get there, we
get there. But no one, no one will accuse me
of singing from the tree tops too loud. So I
think we're we're We're positive that it's going to be
a really, really good season and if we upperform, then
(24:47):
we outperform.
Speaker 2 (24:49):
Why am I hearing this story out of China? My
guy over there, I hope to catch him this week.
Hunter McGregor keeps telling me he said the recovery is
not happening on the ground. But I'm hearing from other
dairy companies. I'm hearing from meat companies that does increase
demand from China. Why are we getting this mixed messaging?
Speaker 7 (25:06):
Yeah, I think I think he's probably right, Jamie. I
hate to say that, but I think he's probably right.
What we're seeing right now is a is a shortfall
in imageries from Chinese buars. And you know that market
does tend to react really really positively and really really
negatively depending on the sentiment at the time. So having
(25:27):
just come from China, you know, what we've seen is
some of the local milk powder has been locked away
now between now and Chinese New Year. So the big
producers of the domestic powder have said, we're not selling
that anymore, and we're not selling it until we know
what's happening through Chinese New Year. And that was a
(25:49):
direct result of the last quarter domestic milk production being
down seven or eight per cent Jamie. So some of
that talk that we've been talking about with culling of
the domestic where he heard, has eventuated and we've seen
a seven or eight cent top in local milk production.
And so the big producers of milk powder over there said,
(26:10):
we're just going to hold onto in the trees now
see the Chinese New Year comes out before we start
looking at selling again. And that was the key message
we got while we were there. And what that's done
is that's triggered a little bit of you know, quite
a bit of activity, panic activity, i should say, on
the GDT auctions in the short term, and you know
we're all reaping the benefits of that Janie as a result.
(26:33):
Whether it can continue for the rest of the season,
I'm just not sure.
Speaker 3 (26:39):
The retail sales just.
Speaker 7 (26:40):
Came out overnight from from China and there's there's blood
on the floor. So I just I think i'd rather
be I don't want to be the profit of just
I do just want to be the cautious optimist.
Speaker 2 (26:51):
Well, well, let's have a look at New Zealand domestic production,
because what I'm hearing is that it's good all around
the country effectively, with the exception of South and whether
they've gone from a rice paddy to whether they're now
looking for a wee bit of rain, believe it or not.
But they just didn't get the peak down there.
Speaker 7 (27:08):
Yeah, that's exactly, it's perfect summary. They're just they've missed
down on that that that peak down there. Production is
pretty good at the moment. You know, the plant our
side is running well and there's milk flowing, but they've
certainly missed that peak a month or so ago. North
Island continues to be strong I mean the Longui plant
(27:30):
is that capacity. We're moving a bit of milk around
to be able to deal deal with it. So it's it's,
you know, a very very good, strong volume season for
New Zealand overall.
Speaker 2 (27:42):
Who's your ag person of the air? Are you going
to be like everyone else? And picked Miles Hurrel from
Fonterra somehow, I don't think you will.
Speaker 7 (27:50):
Well, I'm just going to go with the mass now
and we'll go with the sheep and say why not
because I'm happy with how that how they've managed the
manage the dudyt and managed their supply. So you know,
I was probably pretty critical laughter year when they put
a bit of extra volume on the market just when
we didn't need it. So if I'm going to say
(28:11):
that sort of thing, I'll pat him on the back
when things are going well. So you know, when you're
that big, we all have to rely on them to
make good decisions. And Miles done a good job this year.
Speaker 2 (28:22):
Well that's very generous of you to say, so credit
where credits?
Speaker 7 (28:25):
Sure, Joe, I'm sure he reciprocate and put me down
and says.
Speaker 2 (28:28):
Well he's on the show tomorrow, so I'll ask him
if I'll ask him if you can be his ag
person of the Year, if he can reciprocate. Hey, Mark Delatour,
thank you very much. It's been good catching up with
you throughout twenty twenty four. Let's make twenty twenty five
a prosperous new dairy year. Very good, Mark Delatour, Open
(28:50):
Country Dairy seventeen away from one. As we go, Christmas
and Country. This is Tata's version of Like Christmas. Up next,
John mcavinie, famous for being a white Tomo sheep and
beef farmer, famous for being the chief executive of Steelfort,
and famous for having Tom Phillips, the Mara Cooper Hugitive,
(29:12):
running around his farm. He's up next. And remember, if
you want the Rm Williams voucher, we'll tell you how
to win that, worth a thousand bucks before the end
of the hour. Rapping the year that was twenty twenty
(29:37):
four with their regulars. Here is one of them. He's
a great supporter of this show. He's a white Tomo
sheep and beef farmer. When he's not doing that, he's
the chief executive of Steelfort. His name is John mcavini. John,
I'm really looking forward to your ag Person of the Year.
But let's start with the farming side of the equation first.
How are things going on the west coast of the
North Island?
Speaker 8 (29:58):
Well too, Jamie. The last couple of months it's been outstanding.
We've had plenty of rain. I know it's a bit
tough for the guys on the East coast, but we've
had plenty of rain. We've we've docked again close to
ten thousand lambs. We've tagged and docked all the calves.
You know, when I was out there last they're looking,
you know, absolutely magnificent. We've got grass for Africa. So
(30:22):
you know, from my point of view, the farmer is looking,
you know, the beast that's looked for a long long time.
So you know, we're pretty happy with the season.
Speaker 2 (30:30):
But are you making any money? John?
Speaker 8 (30:33):
I will be if I get what I want from
my lambs. I've held some lambs back. You know, we
were going to draft you know, fifteen hundred lambs this
week and you know, we just went offered enough money
for them. You know, they were about five or six
bucks more than last year, and I said, Cabrient, you know,
I'm not going to sell them at that price. Not
with what I think is going to happen with the
Lamb price. So we're just going to hang on to
(30:55):
them until January. And I'm not prepared to you know.
I mean, you know what they do is they draft
the beast lams first, and of course all the good
ones go and the first fifteen hundred go, and then
you're struggling, you know, to catch the other ones up.
So you know, I'm hanging onto them until mid January,
even late January, John, or we draft and hopefully.
Speaker 2 (31:16):
John, do you know? Do you know something I don't know?
Traditionally the Lamb schedule always drops after Christmas.
Speaker 8 (31:22):
No, there was a statement the other day that my
agent sent me and said that the lamb price is
actually going up. So I'm hoping he's right, and I'm
just going to hang on to them till they do
come up. I mean, the market's a lot better than
it's a dollar ahead of whatever was last year, So
why isn't that reflected it in the pricing?
Speaker 2 (31:41):
And it needs to be mind you to be realistic, John,
and you're a successful businessman, you know how to turn
a buck. Lamb needs to be ten dollars a kilo.
It needs to be the same price as milk.
Speaker 8 (31:52):
Yeah, absolutely, you know, I mean we sell as you know,
we sell all the Lamb's Score and you know we
should be getting out and twenty bucks plus for them
now and not ninety dollars and you know which they
have been for the last twelve eighty months. You know,
there's just no money in it for us for that.
You know, we should be making reasonable money. It's a
(32:13):
great product and I'm just not prepared to sell them
for that sort of money. So I'll just hang on
till it does come back.
Speaker 2 (32:19):
Put on your steel forught hat for a moment. Are
you selling lawn mowers? Has it been a good season
for selling lawn mowers? There won't be many lawns cut
in Napier and hastings at the moment.
Speaker 8 (32:30):
Well, it's it's certainly come right in the last probably month,
you know, five weeks, it's come right. Look, it's been
you know, I'll make no excuse.
Speaker 3 (32:39):
There's been sticky right up until.
Speaker 8 (32:41):
You know, the beginning of this year and from the
beginning of this year right through and you know we're
down you know, probably ten twelve percent on last year,
and it's been you know, it's been hard work. But
in the last month or so it said sixty come
back again. When we had a beautiful rain here yesterday
in Mount Wellanu, I mean we've probably had I would
(33:02):
say cup two or three inches yesterday and the place
is just transformed over and you can see the glass
growing in the whole country's pretty warm. So yeah, I'm
hoping that over the Christmas period, you know, things will
be a lot better.
Speaker 2 (33:16):
And when we get back in the new year. We
have got one of those cub cadets forty two inch
right on MOA's to give away. They are so good.
Rowena went out and did the video at Tim Dangel's
property out at Mirrouai there on the west coast, and
they are so good. Tim loved the moa that much
he's going to buy one. Hey, just before I let
you go, I want John mcaviniye your ag person of
(33:40):
the year. And I note that in the Herald this morning,
I think Simon Wilson woke Old Simon Wilson named Rod
Carr as his civil Servant of the year. I suspect,
knowing you, John, as I do, that Rod may not
be your ag person of the year.
Speaker 8 (33:56):
Well, I can tell you categorically, he would be on
the bottom of the list as far as I'm concerned.
I mean, if you have a reader that read that
column and in the Herald this morning written by Simon Wilson,
I mean, just have a look at the guy. I
don't need to say, well, hang.
Speaker 2 (34:13):
On, you can't judge your book by its cover, John,
Come on, Well.
Speaker 8 (34:16):
I don't say he's not an academic and he's not
a bright sort of fella, but he doesn't do much
for me, you know. I mean my egg person of
the Year, I'm actually on the horns of a deliver
and I'm not sure whether I should give it to
Damian O'Connor because if he gets Egg person of the Year,
he'll never get You don't have to ever worry about
(34:37):
labor getting in again because he just he is not
well liked amongst the farming community. But genuinely, my egg
Person of the Year would have to be Todd McClay.
You know, I think he's done an outstanding job in
the last twelve months. He's got fta's in the air
and Oman I think it was the other day, and
he's working on some more at the moment. He's been
(34:57):
outstanding so you know, from my point of view, he'd
be the egg person for me the year.
Speaker 2 (35:01):
He certainly gets an A for effort. Yeah, he's on
a plane as we speak, Onnor's way to or from
India to try and negotiate something there for us. John mcavene,
thank you to you and the team at steel Fort
Gave and all the team in Palmi North for supporting us.
And we've got that forty two inch right on MOA
to give away when we get back in the new year.
You have a good break and a prosperous new year.
Speaker 8 (35:23):
And Jamie the same to you and thank you for
your support for steel Ford during the year. And I
was very pleased to see you've got that gone during
the year, which I think is you know, I was
very pleased to see that happen. And I wish you
and listeners Mary Christmas and have a good holiday with
Penny and the family and we'll catch up in the
(35:45):
new year.
Speaker 2 (35:46):
Thank you for your kind words. Go well, pleasure, welcome
back to the country. Dis wrapping the show for you.
Another wicket in Hamilton, Tim Southey, farewell Test Match has
got Jacob Bethel, the baby face Jacob A. Bethel for
seventy six England one eighty seven for five Chasing six
(36:09):
hundred and fifty eight. You can forget about that now.
Remember if you want to win the thousand dollars voucher
from RM Williams, text win with your name and where
you're listening from to five, double O nine to B
into one. We'll announce the winner on tomorrow's show. It
is a fantastic prize. Thank you very much to the
team at VetMed making animal health products for New Zealand livestock.
(36:32):
That is a great prize to put up. Just think
how good you'll look in those RM Williams boots in
twenty twenty five. See you tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (36:45):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to Brands, the starkest of
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