January 13, 2025 • 38 mins
Rowena Duncum talks to Phil Duncan, Blair "Blizzard" McLean, Katie Milne, and Dan Brier.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie mckaye thanks to Brent starkest of the
leading agriculture brands Stevie.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
Twice.
Speaker 3 (00:20):
It's good afternoon, New Zealand. Welcome into the country. My
name is Rowena Duncan. I'm a hot seat for Jamie
McKay all week producing Michelle pushing the buttons and choosing
the music. Today out of our Dunedin studios. A bit
of Phil Collins to kick us off another film. Phil
(00:41):
Duncan joining us waiting patiently on hold out of weather
watch dot co dot Nz looking at a pretty extremely
mixed bag of weather around the country. If you can
find someone who is happy with the weather they've had
the summer, be they terrorists, people who are just enjoying
summer or trying to or farmers, you're pretty hard pressed
(01:01):
to do.
Speaker 2 (01:02):
So.
Speaker 3 (01:02):
We've got Cameron Bagrie on the show today, managing director
of Bangrey Economics, looking at how the economy is shaping
up for the first half of twenty twenty five, why
that New Zealand dollar is still falling good news for
exporters though, plus what we should keep an eye on
globally lea blizzard. MacLean is a horticulture and viticulture correspondent
out of Fruit Feed Supplies in Berleina, but he's on
(01:24):
a bit of a busman's holiday. I think he's down
in Central Otago. Flicked me and Jamie a text yesterday
to say hey, I'm down here, free to chat if
you want, And I think he's managed to twist someone's
arm to get some cherries to give away as well,
So stay tuned for that one. Katie Milne joining us
out of the West Coast, former president of Federated Farmer's,
(01:45):
former Vice president of the World Dairy Federation, also a
dairy farmer in her own right, updating conditions on the
West Coast and also how the conservation efforts are going
for predator free in New Zealand. Over there. Dan Bryer
joining me out of Beef and Lamb the GM for
Farm Excellence on the widespread issue of facial exma, plus
if it's to kurb its impact all to come here
(02:08):
on the country. But first of all, let's talk where
they're joining them out of weather Watch dot co dot
m Z. Phil Duncan A Happy.
Speaker 4 (02:15):
New Year, Happy New Year, how are you doing.
Speaker 3 (02:18):
Very well, thank you. But I think I'm one of
the few people around New Zealand who's actually managed to
have pretty decent weather the whole way through the break.
Speaker 4 (02:26):
Yeah, it's been. It depends on where you are. There's
been quite a large part of the country that's had
dry weather. Obviously not everyone. Those along the eastern side
and even the top of the South Island have seen
some pretty decent rain at times over the last few weeks.
But I think probably the most common theme of complaint
that we've had, and by the way, some people this
has been not a complaint, it's been a I'm glad
(02:48):
is that it hasn't been as hot and humid, and
it's certainly been much colder the last couple of days,
and it's been windy. Probably the biggest complaint about the
summer so far, as it's been so windy, and so
that's that's pretty much taken us through to the middle
of January from where we were just before Christmas.
Speaker 3 (03:04):
Yeah, I'll definitely take cooler temperatures as hot and humid
any day.
Speaker 4 (03:09):
That side.
Speaker 3 (03:09):
Dunedin was like my spirit animal when I was living
down there. Why has it been a bit cooler in windier.
Speaker 4 (03:16):
So, as we said kind of way back in spring,
the southern Ocean is especially stormy at the moment. The
loads that are down there constantly having air pressure down
around the nine fifty hectopascal bark and so to beginning
that in the middle of summer, still a lot of
low pressure south of New Zealand and Australia, and a
lot of high pressure zones that are coming through aren't
(03:37):
really coming over the top of us. They're kind of
on the edges. So it's sort of feeding what I
call a spring like, spring like weather pattern where a
lot of the airflows are coming from south of the
country or from coastally around us. We're not getting much
from the tropics. There could still be a few tropical
events to come through yet, because we're only just starting
summer really, but we are likely to be seen more
(04:00):
of this kind of westerly driven weather. But there isn't
a change this week. We're going to get easterlies for
a time, and so that does bring some chance of
wet weather to the top of the country, which is
now becoming very try.
Speaker 3 (04:11):
Yeah, any places in a meteorological drought yet.
Speaker 4 (04:15):
I don't believe that they are yet, although I'd say
we're very close now. You know, the if you look
at the soil moisture map at the moment, it actually
does look like Larminia, but that's not because of the
tropical rain events. There's nothing to do with that. There
is no Larninia it is. It's to do with all
the southerlys we've been getting, and easterly is coming out
from those southerlyes. They kind of come up from the
(04:37):
southern Ocean area, curve around and so you might get
an easterly, but it's coming from south of the country.
And so the whole eastern side of New Zealand from
about Corimand or Peninsula over to East Cape, obviously around
Hawk's Bay Gisbon, which is the wettest at the moment
from a sore moisture point of view, but all the
way down to Canterbury, even around into Southland, that's the
(04:57):
part of the country where it's wetter. But for the
Alton's the driest part of New Zealand compared to usual
for this time of the year. And following behind that
we've got parts of like National Park, sort of King Country, Taranaki,
Waikato Waytimoon right up towards Auckland and Northland. All those
areas are much drier than usual.
Speaker 3 (05:17):
Should we be worried about what we're saying, fellow, or
is all this just normal summer where they take what
you get.
Speaker 4 (05:24):
Yeah, I mean it's to keep it really simple. The
Southern Ocean, there's a lot of low pressure down there,
and that that means that we're kind of getting spillover
from the Southern Ocean. We're getting these westerly, these southwesterly,
these colder airflows. We are likely to be seeing a change,
as I said, to these easterlies this week that could
produce some rain, but I think we are seeing high
pressure dominating more so. I think if you're in an
(05:46):
area that's dry, it's probably going to get dry yub
before we get some rain relief. We'll be looking closer
at that over the next week to see kind of
what's coming up as we end this month and heading
towards February. But for now, we're in neutral. There's no
La Nina. We are seeing the Southern Ocean especially dominant,
and so I think we're in kind of a spring
(06:06):
lake where the pattern or an autumn lake weather pattern
rather than that sort of really settled summer.
Speaker 3 (06:12):
That explains Mike. I keep going to say spring instead
of summer because that's actually what it feels like. Phil
being very very selfish here, I'm after Luke Comb's this weekend,
first of a country music concert I've ever been to
Saturday night, though, Will I need a jacket?
Speaker 4 (06:29):
You might do, because the northeast winds are going to
start to pick up, so they might be a little
bit windy around Auckland and the top part of the
top half of the North Island, Corimandel, Peninsua and Northland
as well. Getting those nor Easter is coming in this
weekend Sunday. I think it's probably got the better chance
of getting showers or maybe some rain, but for now
most places are still looking drier than average for the
next week ahead. These loads just north of us are
(06:51):
work keeping an aisle though they might, you know, with
there's warmer sea temperatures at the moment, they could easily
spark into something bigger, but for now I think you
might be okay.
Speaker 3 (07:00):
Nice I like to hear that phel Duncan out of
where the watch dot co dot Nz. Thanks so much
for making your debut for twenty twenty five on the Country.
Go well, we'll take to you next week.
Speaker 4 (07:10):
My pleasure, Thank you very much.
Speaker 3 (07:12):
My pleasure. Indeed it is where are we fourteen after twelve?
You are with the Country And speaking of that Looke
Holme's concert, I know a lot of people from around
New Zealand are making their way to Auckland for that
this weekend. Still a lot of tickets on sale. Executive
producer for the Country, Michelle Watt, actually reached out to
luck Holm's team to say, hey, you're still trying to
(07:33):
sell tickets, maybe we can get them on the show.
No dice, so apologies for that one. We did try
our absolute best. One person who we did manage to
get to front up on the show, provided he answers
his phone next. Cameron Bagrin, Managing director of bag Grey Economics.
What do we need to look out for in twenty
twenty five? Are we going to see maybe a sub
(07:53):
five percent home loan? As a mortgage holder myself, I'd
be pretty grateful, But also what is happening on a
global scale? What do we need to be aware of
in terms of tariffs and things like that. Who's up
next here on the Country?
Speaker 4 (08:13):
Man a rooster.
Speaker 3 (08:17):
On a south and beautifold joining us for the first
time in twenty twenty five. The managing director of Bank
Greek Economics, Cameron bag Gree, Good afternoon, Happy New Year.
Speaker 5 (08:30):
You great break.
Speaker 3 (08:31):
I did, indeed, and if I know you, which I do,
you would have spent a bit of time near some.
Speaker 5 (08:36):
Lakes here were down on lake. We're a count for
a bit of boating, but a kneeboarding wakeboarding. But the
girls was good, fun.
Speaker 3 (08:43):
Nice, nice. How good are you on a kneeboard or a.
Speaker 5 (08:45):
Wakeboard on the moti? I'll get behy on the boat
drive nice.
Speaker 3 (08:50):
I was going to expecting you to say something like, yeah,
I jumped the wake She's all good. But we are
back in work mode now. It seems like not long
to be caught up at the end of last year, though.
First question for you, though, why is the New Zealand
dollar still falling?
Speaker 5 (09:06):
I will have seen a pretty big move in interest
rate markets in the United States over there, inflation is
looking a little bit more sticky, a little bit more stubborn.
We get another read in a couple of ays, which
is going to be pretty important. But financial markets have
pared back your expectations as to how far and fast
the US Federal Reserve is going to be cutting infrastrates.
(09:27):
In fact, in the yield on the US ten year bond,
it's risen about one hundred basis points in the last
three months. See here's some irony your short term interest rates,
the FED funds rate, the policy rate, that's dropped a
hundred basis points in the last three months, and the
long term infrastrates a ten year bond has risen one
hundred basis points. So it looks like our central bank
is going to keep putting rates for Fed's not when
(09:48):
they see further continue pressure on the New zealandal. And
that's good new streak sports, It's not going to be
such great news over the coming month or so in
regard to the cost of fuel that you're only put
into the vehicles.
Speaker 3 (09:58):
Yeah, there's always swings and round to bounce there. I
saw an article recently floating the possibility of sub five
percent home loans before the end of the year. What
chance do you give something like that?
Speaker 5 (10:10):
That's a possibility, particularly if we see competitive pressures across
the banks start to heat up. But we've still got
an economy that's and what you call recessionary mode. We're
starting to see a little bit of improvement. You know,
I think the economies actually bounced out of recession. Now
we've got a little bit more forward propulsion. But we're
(10:31):
not going to be moving too fast over twenty twenty five.
It's still a disinflationary environment, and a disinflation environment the
reserve back can take the official care stroad back to
what's called a more neutral policy setting. That number is
around three percent. Whether they don't have the foot on
the accelerator or the break. We see a three percent
official cares shrow. We're going to see sub five percent
(10:53):
mortgage rates.
Speaker 3 (10:53):
What do you think will happen with commodity prices. We're
hearing a bit of optimism from the Primary sept for
their individual industries. But where do you see things heading.
Speaker 5 (11:05):
I think the big story here there's not commodity prices.
It's Injy dollar commodity prices. Yeah, each red meat prices affirmed,
but dairy prices obviously bounced up. But the cream on
the cake, he is coming through that New Zealand dollar
which is now down towards fifty five cents, and that's
going to burst New Zealand rural and comes quite nicely
(11:27):
out of twenty twenty five. I guess there's a bit
of a catch for this because the income costably going
up on the other side as well.
Speaker 3 (11:35):
What do you see as the next big stories for
the next couple of months.
Speaker 5 (11:39):
Oh, the US inflation is what we've got our eyes
off at the moment that that is going to take
the path of the US for the reserve. For each
to market three months ago, they're going to be cutting
rates pretty aggressively. Of twenty and twenty five. Your market
is completely backed off that story. In fact, I think
there was a teacher that the US Better Reserve could
have to do a you tube and flip flop and
hype greats in twenty and twenty five. And if they're
(12:00):
hyphen rates in twenty twenty five and we're cutting that
New Zealand dial is hitting down below fifty five cents.
Speaker 3 (12:05):
Okay. With the new change in president coming up, will
we see some impact on that here in New Zealand.
Speaker 5 (12:13):
Everybody who's watching for the policy platform, particularly in regard
to Taris, there's some writer trip that's floating around. It's
going to be twenty percent Paris post on some products.
Whether that's this bit of whether it's talk or not,
we don't know yet. But what we do know around
(12:34):
the globe is it the process of globalization. The process
of free open trade has been seriously entered in the
past few years, and we like to live in a globalized,
well connected world. The world is fracturing into trading blocks,
so that's going to make a lot tougher in regard
to getting trade deals together and pushing products into markets
(12:57):
because we like a coordinated world wherever we place breed
and fear. That's what we've been used to do for
sort of thirty to forty years. But there's certainly not
that economic environment going forward.
Speaker 3 (13:09):
Finally, China's economy. Are we going to see this bounced
back in twenty twenty five or will it depend on
what's happening with America and tariffs.
Speaker 5 (13:18):
Well, it's all connected. China's got its own specific economic
problems and the forms of demographics aging population. They're in
a bit of a deflationary rupt at the moment. They've
also got an awful lot of debt of property markets
in trouble. The Chinese currency is under a fear bit
of pressure, but at the moment, as we've seen those
US interstrates, your long term infrastrates have been moving up
(13:41):
and Chinese infrastrates to be moving down. That's attracting capital
out of China into the United States. So we've seen
the Chinese you are and remember is under the fever
of pressure. And that's the matter of not just what's
going on in regard to Paris, because the Paris do
come in around the globe. Then the trading nations take
the biggest step, or trading nations that are keeped to
(14:02):
the trading nations, and that's China, that's your Australia that
you see on it all. So there's an awful lot
that we're going to be watching in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 3 (14:10):
Trade Minister Todd mcclay's and for an interesting year.
Speaker 5 (14:14):
It is going to be interesting. Yet we've we've managed
to knock off a trade deal, which is good news.
We're going to able to get more penetration. We have to
go a little bit harder into existing markets such as Japan.
But always are at the moment on what the in
company president in the United States and where it takes
them in regard to trade policy.
Speaker 3 (14:32):
And Dad Cameron Bankrey Manage and Director of Bangrey Economics.
Appreciate your time as always on the country, all the best.
It is twenty five after twelve. Of course, before I
forget just updating the fruit play situation. No new fruit
plays have been discovered in traps, which is really great
news as well. Speaking of China's economy, Hunter McGregor joining
(14:55):
us out of Shanghai, China on tomorrow's show. We'll get
his take on the ground. Is it going to be
you s mystic or is he going to be realistic?
I think there'll be a bit of a mixture of
those two are just judging on what I've been hearing
over the past couple of weeks. Right up next, our
horticulture and viticulture correspondent is not in Blenhim, he's down
in Central Otago, I think, on holiday, but happy to
(15:18):
chat to us before the end of the hour. Katie
Milne joining us off the west coast. How are things
looking over there? And Dan Bryer from Beef and Lamb,
New Zealand looking at facial exma becoming more widespread in
New Zealand. You are with the country or we will
catch you back soon. We are after Central Otago. Now
(15:44):
here on the country there we find blear Blizzard, McLean
our fruit feed supply horticulture correspondent usually to be found
up there in blen him Blizzard. Good afternoon and happy
New Year.
Speaker 2 (15:56):
Good afternoon, Happy New Year to you too.
Speaker 3 (15:58):
So what are you doing down in Central Otago?
Speaker 2 (16:01):
Oh, I've just taken a bit of a break from
the cherry season that we've just been through in Marlborough.
But more than likely just having a good lockground here
and visiting some summer fruit growers here and beautiful Central Otago.
Is it as today?
Speaker 3 (16:16):
So kind of like a busman's holiday.
Speaker 2 (16:19):
Yeah, I guess so I won't be playing golf around
the place like Jamie seems to be on his holidays here.
He is down in Rocksford the other day having a
bit of a bash there. But yeah, just catching up
with growers. They are in the midst of the cherry
season down here, picking sweetheart cherries, lapp and cherries probably
(16:41):
an estella, and then apricots are coming off early teachers, nectarines, plums,
all those beautiful summer fruit that we see in the
supermarkets and chops. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (16:54):
Just also before we go any further, thank you, to you.
You sent my mum some cherries, some white flesh cheers
are that we sampled at your vineyard or your cherry orchard. Yes,
last year. They're absolutely delicious.
Speaker 2 (17:07):
Yeah, they're run here n actually. And there's another variety
called star Letter that is a white flesh variety and
quite hard to grow. They grow them well here in
central Tigo. They soon as the cloud passes over the
top of them, they came to split, so pretty pretty rare,
good in them. They're very good for the Asian market
as well. But no, they yeah, I mean Mulbridge did
(17:32):
have a good cherry season. We're the nice a nice
nice year for a change. Thanks for the one and
seven for one and ten when you're a cherry grover grower.
But yeah, the fruit was amazing this year.
Speaker 3 (17:44):
Now, just speaking of whether as you started to go
down that track before, obviously we were speaking to Phil
Duncan at the top of the show. The ware there's
been very isolated, very different than what we sometimes see
in some of the regions. How is that impacting on
the summer fruit?
Speaker 2 (18:00):
Yeah, mixed bag for some of free growers. You talk
to growers and the likes of Rocks for it was
where Jamie was bashing the board against Rocks down there
the other day. And they've had.
Speaker 5 (18:10):
A tough year.
Speaker 2 (18:11):
You know that they're consistent rain, not big events, but
just consistent and that that's hard work on any summer
fruit and juices splitting and cherries can potentially, you know,
cause diseases and summer fruits. It's been pretty tough down there,
and in alex and Cromwell they haven't had that consistency
that they've had sort of easterlyes. You know, it's the
(18:33):
rain here. Cromwell's had rain. It looks like it's sort
of centtling down Awe but now. But yeah, it's been tough.
Speaker 5 (18:41):
Hawks Bay had.
Speaker 2 (18:41):
A good run, Bulber had a good run. But you
know it's just been been what it normally is, you know, tough,
tough growing summer fruits. So get out there and taste
it all.
Speaker 3 (18:52):
Will it impact exports Blizzard, I.
Speaker 2 (18:56):
Think it could do.
Speaker 5 (18:57):
In cherries.
Speaker 2 (18:57):
You know, we export somewhere up to you anywhere between
four or five thousand tons of cherries. Probably the same
amount goes on domestic market. That might be down a
bit for sure. You know, there's we normally think we
forecasts roughly around four thousand odd tons of cherries to
be exported to share That could be down awe. But yeah, well,
(19:21):
certainly there's not a lot of apricots pizzures on the
greens exported, but those that are, those numbers were good,
and there's a really good apricot crop round Central and
Cargo as well. To get into those.
Speaker 3 (19:32):
Yeah, well you're all welcome to keep the apricots. I
won't fight you for any of those. What are we
looking at in terms of wine? I know you're very
up there in the viticulture scene.
Speaker 2 (19:44):
Yeah, big harvest coming for pretty much most of New Zealand.
We had a great flowering period and savon blanc, especially
in Marlborough. So there's record crops all over the place.
Fruits looking clean, but big crops. Sure, plenty of work
for anybody that's looking for work. Of course, most of
it's machine harvested, but there is. He is certainly a
(20:07):
record crop of sevon blanc coming and grapes coming for
New Zealand. Really it seems pretty good all over the country.
Speaker 3 (20:15):
Has anywhere around the world having a bit of the
opposite effect. Can we plug some of their markets with
all this wine?
Speaker 2 (20:23):
I hope. So, I mean anyone's doing there but individually
and collaboratory, but there is you know, there is a
twenty percent decline and wine drinking around the world, so
you know, everyone's looking at different way so you can
make wine better, more attractive, but you know that is
a worldwide problem. There isn't as much wine being drunk worldwide.
(20:46):
So we've just got to do our best, keep our
quality quality up and you know, and produce the best
wine we can because I think we're pretty much only
still New Zealand's only about two percent a mess of
world consumption.
Speaker 3 (20:58):
So yeah, yeah, so I guess the challenge for you
in twenty twenty five, Blizzard is to keep wine sexy.
Speaker 2 (21:07):
That's it. Yep, that's it, you got it, you got it,
and one they're roh yeah sixy and and it's very
competitive out there too. You know, surprises pretty hard the worldwide.
You know, as Cameron Baggery always says, you know, things
are things are tough worldwide. Not everyone's got spear cash around,
so we've got to keep up with the Chileans and
(21:28):
the South Africans are all produced savy on blanc and
other wines. So yeah, it's competitive sexy. You know, if
anybody gets your hands on some twenty twenty four wine,
they were magnificent, you know. So that's that's great wine
taste and it's a lighter crops, so get into that.
Speaker 3 (21:47):
Yeah. Indeed, now you've been twisting one of your mate psalms.
Well you've been on holiday as well.
Speaker 5 (21:53):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (21:54):
You talked to recent New Zealand cherry Corp down here
and he's packing flat out beautiful Swheetheart cheries. So he
said that I'm talking on the show today to give
away a couple of boxes of their export quality cheries.
So I think we've chucked a couple of those out
this week back into the country. To some of the
listeners wrote.
Speaker 3 (22:14):
No, you are too good to us, Bleair MacLean, How
do you reckon we should give these away?
Speaker 2 (22:18):
Oh, let's have a crack at how many shots it
took Jamie to get around the rocks for golf course,
in those eighteen holes that he did amongst the rocks.
That's probably a good good start, all right.
Speaker 3 (22:29):
There we go send us a text five double O
nine as our text number. Have a guess it how
many shots Jamie took around Roxburgh yesterday? Eighteen holes it was,
or it might have been earlier in the week, and
send us your name and your career address to five
double O nine. So that is how many shots did
Jamie McKay take round Roxburth for eighteen holes? Your name
(22:50):
your career address to five double O nine and we
will flick some of those sweetheart cheries that sound delicious
to you. Blear Blizzard MacLean fruit feed supplies out of
PGG right and blend them a bit of culture and
horticulture correspondent on your busman's holiday. Thanks so much for
your time.
Speaker 2 (23:06):
Thanks very much, Ro.
Speaker 3 (23:07):
My pleasure and any chance to poke a bit of
fun in Jamie McKay's direction. I am all for it.
Keep those texts coming real you Sam Sports News next
here on the Country, Stude there twice away from one
(23:30):
you are with the country. A lot of fun coming
through on the text machine. Don't forget five double o
nine as our text number. Send us through how many
shots you think it took Jamie McKay through eighteen holes
at Roxbury yesterday. Your name and career address. You're on
the draw to win a box of beautiful Sweetheart here is.
You don't have to be accurate. By the way. We're
(23:50):
having a bit of fun with this and don't panic.
I won't draw the winner until after one o'clock. A
few of you are getting pretty close there, A few
of you going along the logic that I was that
maybe had shot his aide and inflating his age, are
we That's so yeah, bit of fun with that one.
Here's Michelle Watt with the latest and rural News.
Speaker 1 (24:09):
The country's rural news with Cob Cadet, New Zealand's leading
right on lawnlower brand. Visit steel for dot cot dot
INZB for your local stockist.
Speaker 6 (24:19):
Both Alliance and the New Zealand Meat Board have announced
new appointments. Alliance Group has appointed Chris Day to its board.
Day is an independent director with extensive corporate and governance background.
Mister Day replaces Simon Robertson, who will step down from
the board at the end of March. And The New
Zealand Meat Board has also announced a new appointment of
(24:40):
Nick Beebe as Chief Executive. Mister b b joins the
ZMB as General Manager of Quota and Information in twenty
twenty one and has been COO since July twenty twenty four.
Replacing ZMB Chief Executive Sam mckaiver. You can find more
rural news at the Country dot co dot nz and
here's Rowosports News.
Speaker 1 (25:00):
Sport with AFCO Kiwi to the Bone since nineteen.
Speaker 3 (25:04):
Oh four Angus Sports News headlines. The ASP Classic is
set to remain an outdoor tournament, despite plans to install
a fifteen million dollar roof by twenty twenty seven as
protection against the erratic Auckland weather. Tournament director Nicholas Lampern
says the key objective of players competing in the new
year is to prepare for the Australian Open so it
won't be completely covered. Speaking of tenns KeyWe lu luson
(25:27):
as in first round action on day three in the
Australian Open today and the Los Angeles Rams face the
Minnesota Vikings in the final game of the opening week
in the NFL Playoffs this afternoon from two pm. The
winner meets the Philadelphia Eagles and next all week up. Next,
we're off to the West Coast Kte Milon joining us
here on the country. Heading to the West Coast. Now
(25:55):
on the country, there we find former president of Federated Farmers,
former Vice president of the World Farming Organization and West
Coast Dairy Farmer Katie Melone, Katie, good afternoon, Happy New Year.
Speaker 5 (26:07):
Yeah, for New Year to you too.
Speaker 7 (26:09):
It's sent me been a great kickoff for us here
on the coast. We've had the joys of having the
best weather of the country for change.
Speaker 3 (26:16):
It's not very often we'd be saying that in January, Kasey,
what's your secret?
Speaker 7 (26:22):
Yeah, well, actually it does usually break if it's being
a really wet spring. It usually breaks for us during
Christmas and New Year, and it's quite interesting because a
lot of people have usually gone, I can't bear it
anymore and they buger off for Christmas, a new Year
and turn on the farm. One for us, and we've
had a few miller range since then. But it's been
great to get all the sylogen and draft balls out
(26:44):
of cows and hippers and all those things that you've
got to do at this time of year, stop the
harders and be prepared for winter and next season.
Speaker 3 (26:51):
I spent a couple of days on the West Coast
in the holiday period last year. Absolutely poured both days.
So yeah, I'm glad you've had some good weather. Did
you make it to Kamara? Races.
Speaker 7 (27:02):
Oh, I didn't market down to the races this year,
but I see it was a securb turnout and the
usual coming and going from helicopters and lots of bus
tours and people from all over the country actually turned up,
so it would have been a good one to go to.
They had a bloody good crowd. But of course Lake
Brunner is always superb on a race day because a
few of the Cantabrians go down there and that means
(27:23):
that the lake's half empty, which is really nice, and
the water temperature is really really warm twenty five degrees.
Speaker 3 (27:29):
Now we haven't caught you at the lake today though,
you're on farm.
Speaker 7 (27:32):
Busy day ahead, Yeah, going to drench in DNA or
the heippercarves. So not Boxton to get that sampling the
genome expect, you know, around the end of January, so
looking forward to that to how they going after they've
been weaned for about six weeks or whatever it is.
So yeah, keep an eye on those young stocks very important.
Speaker 3 (27:51):
You're still involved in a lot of boards and governance, Katie.
You're very involved in Predator Free twenty fifty, both nationally
and local level. What's the latest on this front.
Speaker 7 (28:04):
Yeah, it's an interesting one. There's still a lot going on,
and it's getting more and more important because Ousbrey's actually
on the downswing, and the fact that we're getting rid
of TV out of herds quite successfully, and so that
means that where areas become declared that the three of
TV and herds, they pull back on some of the
(28:26):
pot and control and some of the areas here people
are already seeing them dead on the road and farmers
are noticing rise and some of the numbers, which leads
us all quite concerned that if we haven't nailed it
out of those populations that might come back TV. But
also they're going to run rampant again, and raps and
stoats with them. They will feed on each other and
(28:48):
live on the same ecosystem. And so what is going
to happen to these forests that have have had a
real benefit from the poffing work that's gone on for
years by trappers and then Ausbrey and all in sundrum
between farmers themselves. If we don't keep our foot on
the straight of those possums, Yeah, those forests are going
(29:09):
to be predated heavily. Not only the foliage by the
possums they were too, but all the native birds. But
people have noted coming back in areas we're you know,
putting them.
Speaker 3 (29:19):
Back at risk.
Speaker 7 (29:19):
So we're at that critical point now of deciding how
we go forward properly to keep nailing it. And I
mean that's what actually a lot of the work that's
gone on in Southwestlands to proved we can clean out
in these areas on the main Lange because we know
we can do it on offshore islands. But we've really
been experimenting and improving that point and moving all the
(29:41):
things we need to learn to take it forward to
go bigger. So that's exciting, but it's constrained by the
speeds you can go and the speed we need to
go through farms and all those things. But yeah, it
really needs to start jacking up and moving on because
we are seeing more possums in the areas where control
(30:01):
has stopped.
Speaker 3 (30:02):
There must be pretty demoralizing for farmers on the coast.
When you can see the benefit from these programs having
gone hard, you can see the rates of TV declining
and then thinking maybe they've actually taken their foot off
the throat. This might start to reverse.
Speaker 7 (30:20):
It was one of the things that when the system
was ramped up and it was showing some success and
the funds were cut a little bit, there were some
very strong letters from all over the country sent into
the Minister of Agriculture at the time saying don't put
your foot off its throat, or if you do, we
want some guarantees around you, put more money and if
it starts to decline again, yeah, we'll deal with it
(30:42):
another way or whatever, because it is a huge concern,
and of course there's farmers out there, younger farmers who
don't know what it's like to live under that pressure
of TB and all those TB tests and good cows
go and you can't get a hedge yet it leaves
and your sale opportunity for animals disappears, and it's just very,
(31:03):
very stressful and horrible. So we don't want to go
back to that.
Speaker 3 (31:05):
And you mentioned, you know, for people who have no
concept of it because they haven't been through it. I
absolutely sympathize because one of my first farming jobs was
in Wales where TV is just rampant. You're still tested
with parishes. We were testing all the time. If someone
ran the herd past our herd and they shouldn't have
you know, you had to test again and it's so frustrating.
(31:27):
So I really hope that in twenty twenty five that
gets addressed and actually you get the results you need
their Katie kt milon West Coast Stairy Farmer, really appreciate
your time on the country today. Go well and we'll
catch up again soon.
Speaker 7 (31:40):
Yeah, let's hope that we can get enough road to
keep going. Having a great summer and autumn and everyone's
who's getting too much. It's a bit of a break
from it because yeah, the seasons are interesting, aren't there,
and we all want to be prepared for what's around
the corner.
Speaker 3 (31:53):
Yeah, absolutely right. It is coming up ten away from one.
You are with the country. Fantastic ticks messages coming through
to five, double O nine to get in the drawer
for those cherries. Some of you have put a lot
of work into what you think might be Jamie mckaye's
score at Roxburgh during the week. Some scientific work going
on there. Yeah, keep them coming again. We want you
(32:16):
to winner till after one. We will announce the winner
on tomorrow's show. And just listening to Katie, they're talking
about predators and pests and stuff. Apparently China's got quite
an issue with wild pigs, so we'll talk to Hunter
McGregor about that tomorrow. I think I might be needed
in China. I might need to go and help them.
That's shortly wild pig situation. Up next, we wrap the
(32:36):
show Dan Bryer out of Beef and Land, New Zealand,
wrapping the country for your Tuesday looking at facial exmer
obviously becoming more widespread in New Zealand, especially as the
climate changes. You know, in some places farmers who haven't
had to deal with it and generations are farming and
(32:57):
now having to upskill on it and find out about
it really quick. So joining me now is Dan Bryer,
Beef and Lamb, New Zealand and GM for Farm Excellence.
Good afternoon, Dan hi Rowen, how are you very well?
Thank you? Look Beef and Lamb, New Zealand and leading
the Eliminating Facial x ME Impact Program, a seven year
program because obviously this is quite a big deal for farmers.
(33:20):
How big a deal is it.
Speaker 5 (33:23):
It's a massive deal. So, particularly in the north half
of the North Island, we see every year farmers have
to deal with facial x ME. We think it costs
the industry something like three hundred and thirty two million
dollars every year. So this is across sheep and beef
and dairy and even the goats and everyone else as well.
But that's a massive amount of money that we're losing
(33:44):
every year because of facial X month.
Speaker 3 (33:45):
Absolutely. So I mentioned you've got this seven year program.
You're working with a lot of industry partners on what
is that hoping to achieve?
Speaker 5 (33:54):
So, facial xmath has been around for a long time
and in fact, Urakura the research station was set up
there partly because of the face leaksma challenge around here.
What we're hoping to do is look at some of
that old science and find updated find some new solutions,
find some new opportunities or ways that farmers can deal
with facial exma. And our ultimate goal is that we
(34:14):
can eliminate the impacts of facial ex farmers in New Zealand.
Speaker 3 (34:18):
You need help from farmers to do this, obviously, have
you had goodbye and so far?
Speaker 5 (34:24):
Yeah, absolutely, it's been really really exciting. We've been running
what's been known as the Sheep Poose Study for a
year now and we've had hundreds of farmers join up
to that and give us their information, which is helping
to build a picture of where face LEXM is around
the country. And we've got lots more opportunities for farmers
to jump in and be involved as well.
Speaker 3 (34:43):
Absolutely, you've got a survey going out to farmers. Is
it next week?
Speaker 5 (34:48):
Yeah? Absolutely, And it's really crucialized so as we get
into the start of these programs if we can get
a really good survey sample from farmers about what they're
doing on their farm, the impacts it's having, both for
farmers who are having in impact, but also for others
as well, so that when we come back throughout the
program and particularly at the end, we can see what's
changed over time. We can see if we've had an impact,
(35:09):
but also the changes that facial exceners causing are on
their property. So really really important. If if anyone's got
some time to put into that survey, I really really
encourage him to do so.
Speaker 2 (35:20):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (35:20):
And that's just on the Beef and Name website.
Speaker 5 (35:23):
Yep. Absolutely, and we'll also be sending it out through
our rural media and other areas as well. But absolutely
go to the Beef and Land New Zealand website and
you'll be able to track down the facial XMA program.
Speaker 3 (35:34):
I've mentioned on the show several times that I started
my dairy farming career in Ireland in Wales and we
were autumn carving, so you know, we didn't see the
impacts of facial exma so much over there, but when
I returned to Taranaki straight away, it's such an awful
thing to deal with on farm.
Speaker 5 (35:53):
It's horrendous, right, and in my previous role as a bitinarian,
we spent all the time and energy helping farmers with
facial xma. It's also a relatively unique New Zealand problem,
so you wouldn't have seen.
Speaker 3 (36:04):
It, that'll be why.
Speaker 5 (36:06):
Yeah, yeah, so you wouldn't have seen it in the
northern Hemisphere. But it also means no one's going to
solve this for us, right, we can't. It's not going
to be some international drug company that comes up with
a magic solution or something out of the feed lots
in the US. This is a New Zealand problem that
we need to solve. And for two hundred and thirty
two million dollars, I reckon it's worth very.
Speaker 3 (36:24):
Fing Oh absolutely, it's just money down the drain otherwise,
not to mention the pressure that's social pressure on farmers
and on the stock themselves as well, that wellbeing pressure. Look,
we've got a four part podcast launching on the Country's
podcast channel this afternoon. I'm taking an in depth dive
into facial XMA. So keep your eyes peeled for that one.
I will pop it up on our Facebook page later today,
(36:47):
and keep your eyes on your inbox or on that
Beef and Lamb website for the survey coming up next week.
Dan Bryer, Beef and Lamb, New Zealand GM of Farm Excellence.
Thanks so much for your time and all the best
with this study. It really is important to farmers appreciate
your time.
Speaker 5 (37:03):
Yeah, thank you, thanks ver much and thanks for your support.
Speaker 3 (37:05):
Oh no worry, so feeling a little bit blonde. Not
realizing that facial exma wasn't in the northern hemisphere. That'll
be why we didn't know about it until I got
home to New Zealand. Hey, just to put everyone out
of their misery. Seventy five is what Jamie McCamy scored
at Roxburgh. As I said, it doesn't matter if you
were correct or not. Everyone is in the drawer. I'm
(37:25):
just glad today I forgot my phone at home because
I did make a quip yesterday about being so proud
of him that had shot his age, of course, inflating
his age by ten years, so I think it's a
good thing I've gone today without a phone. Yesterday was
wearing the garage slides to work instead of my actual
work shoes. Gosh, it is hard getting back into work mode,
isn't it. Tomorrow I'm going to try and track someone
(37:46):
down about foot and mouth and Germany YEP authorities confirmed
the country's first outbreak in forty years on last week,
so yeah, pretty scary times. We will try and track
someone down about that. Enjoy your day, I will catch
you back to Murrow.
Speaker 1 (38:01):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
podcast with Jamie McGue Thanks to Brent, your specialist in
John Deere Machinery
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie mckaye thanks to Brent starkest of the
leading agriculture brands Stevie.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
Twice.
Speaker 3 (00:20):
It's good afternoon, New Zealand. Welcome into the country. My
name is Rowena Duncan. I'm a hot seat for Jamie
McKay all week producing Michelle pushing the buttons and choosing
the music. Today out of our Dunedin studios. A bit
of Phil Collins to kick us off another film. Phil
(00:41):
Duncan joining us waiting patiently on hold out of weather
watch dot co dot Nz looking at a pretty extremely
mixed bag of weather around the country. If you can
find someone who is happy with the weather they've had
the summer, be they terrorists, people who are just enjoying
summer or trying to or farmers, you're pretty hard pressed
(01:01):
to do.
Speaker 2 (01:02):
So.
Speaker 3 (01:02):
We've got Cameron Bagrie on the show today, managing director
of Bangrey Economics, looking at how the economy is shaping
up for the first half of twenty twenty five, why
that New Zealand dollar is still falling good news for
exporters though, plus what we should keep an eye on
globally lea blizzard. MacLean is a horticulture and viticulture correspondent
out of Fruit Feed Supplies in Berleina, but he's on
(01:24):
a bit of a busman's holiday. I think he's down
in Central Otago. Flicked me and Jamie a text yesterday
to say hey, I'm down here, free to chat if
you want, And I think he's managed to twist someone's
arm to get some cherries to give away as well,
So stay tuned for that one. Katie Milne joining us
out of the West Coast, former president of Federated Farmer's,
(01:45):
former Vice president of the World Dairy Federation, also a
dairy farmer in her own right, updating conditions on the
West Coast and also how the conservation efforts are going
for predator free in New Zealand. Over there. Dan Bryer
joining me out of Beef and Lamb the GM for
Farm Excellence on the widespread issue of facial exma, plus
if it's to kurb its impact all to come here
(02:08):
on the country. But first of all, let's talk where
they're joining them out of weather Watch dot co dot
m Z. Phil Duncan A Happy.
Speaker 4 (02:15):
New Year, Happy New Year, how are you doing.
Speaker 3 (02:18):
Very well, thank you. But I think I'm one of
the few people around New Zealand who's actually managed to
have pretty decent weather the whole way through the break.
Speaker 4 (02:26):
Yeah, it's been. It depends on where you are. There's
been quite a large part of the country that's had
dry weather. Obviously not everyone. Those along the eastern side
and even the top of the South Island have seen
some pretty decent rain at times over the last few weeks.
But I think probably the most common theme of complaint
that we've had, and by the way, some people this
has been not a complaint, it's been a I'm glad
(02:48):
is that it hasn't been as hot and humid, and
it's certainly been much colder the last couple of days,
and it's been windy. Probably the biggest complaint about the
summer so far, as it's been so windy, and so
that's that's pretty much taken us through to the middle
of January from where we were just before Christmas.
Speaker 3 (03:04):
Yeah, I'll definitely take cooler temperatures as hot and humid
any day.
Speaker 4 (03:09):
That side.
Speaker 3 (03:09):
Dunedin was like my spirit animal when I was living
down there. Why has it been a bit cooler in windier.
Speaker 4 (03:16):
So, as we said kind of way back in spring,
the southern Ocean is especially stormy at the moment. The
loads that are down there constantly having air pressure down
around the nine fifty hectopascal bark and so to beginning
that in the middle of summer, still a lot of
low pressure south of New Zealand and Australia, and a
lot of high pressure zones that are coming through aren't
(03:37):
really coming over the top of us. They're kind of
on the edges. So it's sort of feeding what I
call a spring like, spring like weather pattern where a
lot of the airflows are coming from south of the
country or from coastally around us. We're not getting much
from the tropics. There could still be a few tropical
events to come through yet, because we're only just starting
summer really, but we are likely to be seen more
(04:00):
of this kind of westerly driven weather. But there isn't
a change this week. We're going to get easterlies for
a time, and so that does bring some chance of
wet weather to the top of the country, which is
now becoming very try.
Speaker 3 (04:11):
Yeah, any places in a meteorological drought yet.
Speaker 4 (04:15):
I don't believe that they are yet, although I'd say
we're very close now. You know, the if you look
at the soil moisture map at the moment, it actually
does look like Larminia, but that's not because of the
tropical rain events. There's nothing to do with that. There
is no Larninia it is. It's to do with all
the southerlys we've been getting, and easterly is coming out
from those southerlyes. They kind of come up from the
(04:37):
southern Ocean area, curve around and so you might get
an easterly, but it's coming from south of the country.
And so the whole eastern side of New Zealand from
about Corimand or Peninsula over to East Cape, obviously around
Hawk's Bay Gisbon, which is the wettest at the moment
from a sore moisture point of view, but all the
way down to Canterbury, even around into Southland, that's the
(04:57):
part of the country where it's wetter. But for the
Alton's the driest part of New Zealand compared to usual
for this time of the year. And following behind that
we've got parts of like National Park, sort of King Country, Taranaki,
Waikato Waytimoon right up towards Auckland and Northland. All those
areas are much drier than usual.
Speaker 3 (05:17):
Should we be worried about what we're saying, fellow, or
is all this just normal summer where they take what
you get.
Speaker 4 (05:24):
Yeah, I mean it's to keep it really simple. The
Southern Ocean, there's a lot of low pressure down there,
and that that means that we're kind of getting spillover
from the Southern Ocean. We're getting these westerly, these southwesterly,
these colder airflows. We are likely to be seeing a change,
as I said, to these easterlies this week that could
produce some rain, but I think we are seeing high
pressure dominating more so. I think if you're in an
(05:46):
area that's dry, it's probably going to get dry yub
before we get some rain relief. We'll be looking closer
at that over the next week to see kind of
what's coming up as we end this month and heading
towards February. But for now, we're in neutral. There's no
La Nina. We are seeing the Southern Ocean especially dominant,
and so I think we're in kind of a spring
(06:06):
lake where the pattern or an autumn lake weather pattern
rather than that sort of really settled summer.
Speaker 3 (06:12):
That explains Mike. I keep going to say spring instead
of summer because that's actually what it feels like. Phil
being very very selfish here, I'm after Luke Comb's this weekend,
first of a country music concert I've ever been to
Saturday night, though, Will I need a jacket?
Speaker 4 (06:29):
You might do, because the northeast winds are going to
start to pick up, so they might be a little
bit windy around Auckland and the top part of the
top half of the North Island, Corimandel, Peninsua and Northland
as well. Getting those nor Easter is coming in this
weekend Sunday. I think it's probably got the better chance
of getting showers or maybe some rain, but for now
most places are still looking drier than average for the
next week ahead. These loads just north of us are
(06:51):
work keeping an aisle though they might, you know, with
there's warmer sea temperatures at the moment, they could easily
spark into something bigger, but for now I think you
might be okay.
Speaker 3 (07:00):
Nice I like to hear that phel Duncan out of
where the watch dot co dot Nz. Thanks so much
for making your debut for twenty twenty five on the Country.
Go well, we'll take to you next week.
Speaker 4 (07:10):
My pleasure, Thank you very much.
Speaker 3 (07:12):
My pleasure. Indeed it is where are we fourteen after twelve?
You are with the Country And speaking of that Looke
Holme's concert, I know a lot of people from around
New Zealand are making their way to Auckland for that
this weekend. Still a lot of tickets on sale. Executive
producer for the Country, Michelle Watt, actually reached out to
luck Holm's team to say, hey, you're still trying to
(07:33):
sell tickets, maybe we can get them on the show.
No dice, so apologies for that one. We did try
our absolute best. One person who we did manage to
get to front up on the show, provided he answers
his phone next. Cameron Bagrin, Managing director of bag Grey Economics.
What do we need to look out for in twenty
twenty five? Are we going to see maybe a sub
(07:53):
five percent home loan? As a mortgage holder myself, I'd
be pretty grateful, But also what is happening on a
global scale? What do we need to be aware of
in terms of tariffs and things like that. Who's up
next here on the Country?
Speaker 4 (08:13):
Man a rooster.
Speaker 3 (08:17):
On a south and beautifold joining us for the first
time in twenty twenty five. The managing director of Bank
Greek Economics, Cameron bag Gree, Good afternoon, Happy New Year.
Speaker 5 (08:30):
You great break.
Speaker 3 (08:31):
I did, indeed, and if I know you, which I do,
you would have spent a bit of time near some.
Speaker 5 (08:36):
Lakes here were down on lake. We're a count for
a bit of boating, but a kneeboarding wakeboarding. But the
girls was good, fun.
Speaker 3 (08:43):
Nice, nice. How good are you on a kneeboard or a.
Speaker 5 (08:45):
Wakeboard on the moti? I'll get behy on the boat
drive nice.
Speaker 3 (08:50):
I was going to expecting you to say something like, yeah,
I jumped the wake She's all good. But we are
back in work mode now. It seems like not long
to be caught up at the end of last year, though.
First question for you, though, why is the New Zealand
dollar still falling?
Speaker 5 (09:06):
I will have seen a pretty big move in interest
rate markets in the United States over there, inflation is
looking a little bit more sticky, a little bit more stubborn.
We get another read in a couple of ays, which
is going to be pretty important. But financial markets have
pared back your expectations as to how far and fast
the US Federal Reserve is going to be cutting infrastrates.
(09:27):
In fact, in the yield on the US ten year bond,
it's risen about one hundred basis points in the last
three months. See here's some irony your short term interest rates,
the FED funds rate, the policy rate, that's dropped a
hundred basis points in the last three months, and the
long term infrastrates a ten year bond has risen one
hundred basis points. So it looks like our central bank
is going to keep putting rates for Fed's not when
(09:48):
they see further continue pressure on the New zealandal. And
that's good new streak sports, It's not going to be
such great news over the coming month or so in
regard to the cost of fuel that you're only put
into the vehicles.
Speaker 3 (09:58):
Yeah, there's always swings and round to bounce there. I
saw an article recently floating the possibility of sub five
percent home loans before the end of the year. What
chance do you give something like that?
Speaker 5 (10:10):
That's a possibility, particularly if we see competitive pressures across
the banks start to heat up. But we've still got
an economy that's and what you call recessionary mode. We're
starting to see a little bit of improvement. You know,
I think the economies actually bounced out of recession. Now
we've got a little bit more forward propulsion. But we're
(10:31):
not going to be moving too fast over twenty twenty five.
It's still a disinflationary environment, and a disinflation environment the
reserve back can take the official care stroad back to
what's called a more neutral policy setting. That number is
around three percent. Whether they don't have the foot on
the accelerator or the break. We see a three percent
official cares shrow. We're going to see sub five percent
(10:53):
mortgage rates.
Speaker 3 (10:53):
What do you think will happen with commodity prices. We're
hearing a bit of optimism from the Primary sept for
their individual industries. But where do you see things heading.
Speaker 5 (11:05):
I think the big story here there's not commodity prices.
It's Injy dollar commodity prices. Yeah, each red meat prices affirmed,
but dairy prices obviously bounced up. But the cream on
the cake, he is coming through that New Zealand dollar
which is now down towards fifty five cents, and that's
going to burst New Zealand rural and comes quite nicely
(11:27):
out of twenty twenty five. I guess there's a bit
of a catch for this because the income costably going
up on the other side as well.
Speaker 3 (11:35):
What do you see as the next big stories for
the next couple of months.
Speaker 5 (11:39):
Oh, the US inflation is what we've got our eyes
off at the moment that that is going to take
the path of the US for the reserve. For each
to market three months ago, they're going to be cutting
rates pretty aggressively. Of twenty and twenty five. Your market
is completely backed off that story. In fact, I think
there was a teacher that the US Better Reserve could
have to do a you tube and flip flop and
hype greats in twenty and twenty five. And if they're
(12:00):
hyphen rates in twenty twenty five and we're cutting that
New Zealand dial is hitting down below fifty five cents.
Speaker 3 (12:05):
Okay. With the new change in president coming up, will
we see some impact on that here in New Zealand.
Speaker 5 (12:13):
Everybody who's watching for the policy platform, particularly in regard
to Taris, there's some writer trip that's floating around. It's
going to be twenty percent Paris post on some products.
Whether that's this bit of whether it's talk or not,
we don't know yet. But what we do know around
(12:34):
the globe is it the process of globalization. The process
of free open trade has been seriously entered in the
past few years, and we like to live in a globalized,
well connected world. The world is fracturing into trading blocks,
so that's going to make a lot tougher in regard
to getting trade deals together and pushing products into markets
(12:57):
because we like a coordinated world wherever we place breed
and fear. That's what we've been used to do for
sort of thirty to forty years. But there's certainly not
that economic environment going forward.
Speaker 3 (13:09):
Finally, China's economy. Are we going to see this bounced
back in twenty twenty five or will it depend on
what's happening with America and tariffs.
Speaker 5 (13:18):
Well, it's all connected. China's got its own specific economic
problems and the forms of demographics aging population. They're in
a bit of a deflationary rupt at the moment. They've
also got an awful lot of debt of property markets
in trouble. The Chinese currency is under a fear bit
of pressure, but at the moment, as we've seen those
US interstrates, your long term infrastrates have been moving up
(13:41):
and Chinese infrastrates to be moving down. That's attracting capital
out of China into the United States. So we've seen
the Chinese you are and remember is under the fever
of pressure. And that's the matter of not just what's
going on in regard to Paris, because the Paris do
come in around the globe. Then the trading nations take
the biggest step, or trading nations that are keeped to
(14:02):
the trading nations, and that's China, that's your Australia that
you see on it all. So there's an awful lot
that we're going to be watching in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 3 (14:10):
Trade Minister Todd mcclay's and for an interesting year.
Speaker 5 (14:14):
It is going to be interesting. Yet we've we've managed
to knock off a trade deal, which is good news.
We're going to able to get more penetration. We have to
go a little bit harder into existing markets such as Japan.
But always are at the moment on what the in
company president in the United States and where it takes
them in regard to trade policy.
Speaker 3 (14:32):
And Dad Cameron Bankrey Manage and Director of Bangrey Economics.
Appreciate your time as always on the country, all the best.
It is twenty five after twelve. Of course, before I
forget just updating the fruit play situation. No new fruit
plays have been discovered in traps, which is really great
news as well. Speaking of China's economy, Hunter McGregor joining
(14:55):
us out of Shanghai, China on tomorrow's show. We'll get
his take on the ground. Is it going to be
you s mystic or is he going to be realistic?
I think there'll be a bit of a mixture of
those two are just judging on what I've been hearing
over the past couple of weeks. Right up next, our
horticulture and viticulture correspondent is not in Blenhim, he's down
in Central Otago, I think, on holiday, but happy to
(15:18):
chat to us before the end of the hour. Katie
Milne joining us off the west coast. How are things
looking over there? And Dan Bryer from Beef and Lamb,
New Zealand looking at facial exma becoming more widespread in
New Zealand. You are with the country or we will
catch you back soon. We are after Central Otago. Now
(15:44):
here on the country there we find blear Blizzard, McLean
our fruit feed supply horticulture correspondent usually to be found
up there in blen him Blizzard. Good afternoon and happy
New Year.
Speaker 2 (15:56):
Good afternoon, Happy New Year to you too.
Speaker 3 (15:58):
So what are you doing down in Central Otago?
Speaker 2 (16:01):
Oh, I've just taken a bit of a break from
the cherry season that we've just been through in Marlborough.
But more than likely just having a good lockground here
and visiting some summer fruit growers here and beautiful Central Otago.
Is it as today?
Speaker 3 (16:16):
So kind of like a busman's holiday.
Speaker 2 (16:19):
Yeah, I guess so I won't be playing golf around
the place like Jamie seems to be on his holidays here.
He is down in Rocksford the other day having a
bit of a bash there. But yeah, just catching up
with growers. They are in the midst of the cherry
season down here, picking sweetheart cherries, lapp and cherries probably
(16:41):
an estella, and then apricots are coming off early teachers, nectarines, plums,
all those beautiful summer fruit that we see in the
supermarkets and chops. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (16:54):
Just also before we go any further, thank you, to you.
You sent my mum some cherries, some white flesh cheers
are that we sampled at your vineyard or your cherry orchard. Yes,
last year. They're absolutely delicious.
Speaker 2 (17:07):
Yeah, they're run here n actually. And there's another variety
called star Letter that is a white flesh variety and
quite hard to grow. They grow them well here in
central Tigo. They soon as the cloud passes over the
top of them, they came to split, so pretty pretty rare,
good in them. They're very good for the Asian market
as well. But no, they yeah, I mean Mulbridge did
(17:32):
have a good cherry season. We're the nice a nice
nice year for a change. Thanks for the one and
seven for one and ten when you're a cherry grover grower.
But yeah, the fruit was amazing this year.
Speaker 3 (17:44):
Now, just speaking of whether as you started to go
down that track before, obviously we were speaking to Phil
Duncan at the top of the show. The ware there's
been very isolated, very different than what we sometimes see
in some of the regions. How is that impacting on
the summer fruit?
Speaker 2 (18:00):
Yeah, mixed bag for some of free growers. You talk
to growers and the likes of Rocks for it was
where Jamie was bashing the board against Rocks down there
the other day. And they've had.
Speaker 5 (18:10):
A tough year.
Speaker 2 (18:11):
You know that they're consistent rain, not big events, but
just consistent and that that's hard work on any summer
fruit and juices splitting and cherries can potentially, you know,
cause diseases and summer fruits. It's been pretty tough down there,
and in alex and Cromwell they haven't had that consistency
that they've had sort of easterlyes. You know, it's the
(18:33):
rain here. Cromwell's had rain. It looks like it's sort
of centtling down Awe but now. But yeah, it's been tough.
Speaker 5 (18:41):
Hawks Bay had.
Speaker 2 (18:41):
A good run, Bulber had a good run. But you
know it's just been been what it normally is, you know, tough,
tough growing summer fruits. So get out there and taste
it all.
Speaker 3 (18:52):
Will it impact exports Blizzard, I.
Speaker 2 (18:56):
Think it could do.
Speaker 5 (18:57):
In cherries.
Speaker 2 (18:57):
You know, we export somewhere up to you anywhere between
four or five thousand tons of cherries. Probably the same
amount goes on domestic market. That might be down a
bit for sure. You know, there's we normally think we
forecasts roughly around four thousand odd tons of cherries to
be exported to share That could be down awe. But yeah, well,
(19:21):
certainly there's not a lot of apricots pizzures on the
greens exported, but those that are, those numbers were good,
and there's a really good apricot crop round Central and
Cargo as well. To get into those.
Speaker 3 (19:32):
Yeah, well you're all welcome to keep the apricots. I
won't fight you for any of those. What are we
looking at in terms of wine? I know you're very
up there in the viticulture scene.
Speaker 2 (19:44):
Yeah, big harvest coming for pretty much most of New Zealand.
We had a great flowering period and savon blanc, especially
in Marlborough. So there's record crops all over the place.
Fruits looking clean, but big crops. Sure, plenty of work
for anybody that's looking for work. Of course, most of
it's machine harvested, but there is. He is certainly a
(20:07):
record crop of sevon blanc coming and grapes coming for
New Zealand. Really it seems pretty good all over the country.
Speaker 3 (20:15):
Has anywhere around the world having a bit of the
opposite effect. Can we plug some of their markets with
all this wine?
Speaker 2 (20:23):
I hope. So, I mean anyone's doing there but individually
and collaboratory, but there is you know, there is a
twenty percent decline and wine drinking around the world, so
you know, everyone's looking at different way so you can
make wine better, more attractive, but you know that is
a worldwide problem. There isn't as much wine being drunk worldwide.
(20:46):
So we've just got to do our best, keep our
quality quality up and you know, and produce the best
wine we can because I think we're pretty much only
still New Zealand's only about two percent a mess of
world consumption.
Speaker 3 (20:58):
So yeah, yeah, so I guess the challenge for you
in twenty twenty five, Blizzard is to keep wine sexy.
Speaker 2 (21:07):
That's it. Yep, that's it, you got it, you got it,
and one they're roh yeah sixy and and it's very
competitive out there too. You know, surprises pretty hard the worldwide.
You know, as Cameron Baggery always says, you know, things
are things are tough worldwide. Not everyone's got spear cash around,
so we've got to keep up with the Chileans and
(21:28):
the South Africans are all produced savy on blanc and
other wines. So yeah, it's competitive sexy. You know, if
anybody gets your hands on some twenty twenty four wine,
they were magnificent, you know. So that's that's great wine
taste and it's a lighter crops, so get into that.
Speaker 3 (21:47):
Yeah. Indeed, now you've been twisting one of your mate psalms.
Well you've been on holiday as well.
Speaker 5 (21:53):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (21:54):
You talked to recent New Zealand cherry Corp down here
and he's packing flat out beautiful Swheetheart cheries. So he
said that I'm talking on the show today to give
away a couple of boxes of their export quality cheries.
So I think we've chucked a couple of those out
this week back into the country. To some of the
listeners wrote.
Speaker 3 (22:14):
No, you are too good to us, Bleair MacLean, How
do you reckon we should give these away?
Speaker 2 (22:18):
Oh, let's have a crack at how many shots it
took Jamie to get around the rocks for golf course,
in those eighteen holes that he did amongst the rocks.
That's probably a good good start, all right.
Speaker 3 (22:29):
There we go send us a text five double O
nine as our text number. Have a guess it how
many shots Jamie took around Roxburgh yesterday? Eighteen holes it was,
or it might have been earlier in the week, and
send us your name and your career address to five
double O nine. So that is how many shots did
Jamie McKay take round Roxburth for eighteen holes? Your name
(22:50):
your career address to five double O nine and we
will flick some of those sweetheart cheries that sound delicious
to you. Blear Blizzard MacLean fruit feed supplies out of
PGG right and blend them a bit of culture and
horticulture correspondent on your busman's holiday. Thanks so much for
your time.
Speaker 2 (23:06):
Thanks very much, Ro.
Speaker 3 (23:07):
My pleasure and any chance to poke a bit of
fun in Jamie McKay's direction. I am all for it.
Keep those texts coming real you Sam Sports News next
here on the Country, Stude there twice away from one
(23:30):
you are with the country. A lot of fun coming
through on the text machine. Don't forget five double o
nine as our text number. Send us through how many
shots you think it took Jamie McKay through eighteen holes
at Roxbury yesterday. Your name and career address. You're on
the draw to win a box of beautiful Sweetheart here is.
You don't have to be accurate. By the way. We're
(23:50):
having a bit of fun with this and don't panic.
I won't draw the winner until after one o'clock. A
few of you are getting pretty close there, A few
of you going along the logic that I was that
maybe had shot his aide and inflating his age, are
we That's so yeah, bit of fun with that one.
Here's Michelle Watt with the latest and rural News.
Speaker 1 (24:09):
The country's rural news with Cob Cadet, New Zealand's leading
right on lawnlower brand. Visit steel for dot cot dot
INZB for your local stockist.
Speaker 6 (24:19):
Both Alliance and the New Zealand Meat Board have announced
new appointments. Alliance Group has appointed Chris Day to its board.
Day is an independent director with extensive corporate and governance background.
Mister Day replaces Simon Robertson, who will step down from
the board at the end of March. And The New
Zealand Meat Board has also announced a new appointment of
(24:40):
Nick Beebe as Chief Executive. Mister b b joins the
ZMB as General Manager of Quota and Information in twenty
twenty one and has been COO since July twenty twenty four.
Replacing ZMB Chief Executive Sam mckaiver. You can find more
rural news at the Country dot co dot nz and
here's Rowosports News.
Speaker 1 (25:00):
Sport with AFCO Kiwi to the Bone since nineteen.
Speaker 3 (25:04):
Oh four Angus Sports News headlines. The ASP Classic is
set to remain an outdoor tournament, despite plans to install
a fifteen million dollar roof by twenty twenty seven as
protection against the erratic Auckland weather. Tournament director Nicholas Lampern
says the key objective of players competing in the new
year is to prepare for the Australian Open so it
won't be completely covered. Speaking of tenns KeyWe lu luson
(25:27):
as in first round action on day three in the
Australian Open today and the Los Angeles Rams face the
Minnesota Vikings in the final game of the opening week
in the NFL Playoffs this afternoon from two pm. The
winner meets the Philadelphia Eagles and next all week up. Next,
we're off to the West Coast Kte Milon joining us
here on the country. Heading to the West Coast. Now
(25:55):
on the country, there we find former president of Federated Farmers,
former Vice president of the World Farming Organization and West
Coast Dairy Farmer Katie Melone, Katie, good afternoon, Happy New Year.
Speaker 5 (26:07):
Yeah, for New Year to you too.
Speaker 7 (26:09):
It's sent me been a great kickoff for us here
on the coast. We've had the joys of having the
best weather of the country for change.
Speaker 3 (26:16):
It's not very often we'd be saying that in January, Kasey,
what's your secret?
Speaker 7 (26:22):
Yeah, well, actually it does usually break if it's being
a really wet spring. It usually breaks for us during
Christmas and New Year, and it's quite interesting because a
lot of people have usually gone, I can't bear it
anymore and they buger off for Christmas, a new Year
and turn on the farm. One for us, and we've
had a few miller range since then. But it's been
great to get all the sylogen and draft balls out
(26:44):
of cows and hippers and all those things that you've
got to do at this time of year, stop the
harders and be prepared for winter and next season.
Speaker 3 (26:51):
I spent a couple of days on the West Coast
in the holiday period last year. Absolutely poured both days.
So yeah, I'm glad you've had some good weather. Did
you make it to Kamara? Races.
Speaker 7 (27:02):
Oh, I didn't market down to the races this year,
but I see it was a securb turnout and the
usual coming and going from helicopters and lots of bus
tours and people from all over the country actually turned up,
so it would have been a good one to go to.
They had a bloody good crowd. But of course Lake
Brunner is always superb on a race day because a
few of the Cantabrians go down there and that means
(27:23):
that the lake's half empty, which is really nice, and
the water temperature is really really warm twenty five degrees.
Speaker 3 (27:29):
Now we haven't caught you at the lake today though,
you're on farm.
Speaker 7 (27:32):
Busy day ahead, Yeah, going to drench in DNA or
the heippercarves. So not Boxton to get that sampling the
genome expect, you know, around the end of January, so
looking forward to that to how they going after they've
been weaned for about six weeks or whatever it is.
So yeah, keep an eye on those young stocks very important.
Speaker 3 (27:51):
You're still involved in a lot of boards and governance, Katie.
You're very involved in Predator Free twenty fifty, both nationally
and local level. What's the latest on this front.
Speaker 7 (28:04):
Yeah, it's an interesting one. There's still a lot going on,
and it's getting more and more important because Ousbrey's actually
on the downswing, and the fact that we're getting rid
of TV out of herds quite successfully, and so that
means that where areas become declared that the three of
TV and herds, they pull back on some of the
(28:26):
pot and control and some of the areas here people
are already seeing them dead on the road and farmers
are noticing rise and some of the numbers, which leads
us all quite concerned that if we haven't nailed it
out of those populations that might come back TV. But
also they're going to run rampant again, and raps and
stoats with them. They will feed on each other and
(28:48):
live on the same ecosystem. And so what is going
to happen to these forests that have have had a
real benefit from the poffing work that's gone on for
years by trappers and then Ausbrey and all in sundrum
between farmers themselves. If we don't keep our foot on
the straight of those possums, Yeah, those forests are going
(29:09):
to be predated heavily. Not only the foliage by the
possums they were too, but all the native birds. But
people have noted coming back in areas we're you know,
putting them.
Speaker 3 (29:19):
Back at risk.
Speaker 7 (29:19):
So we're at that critical point now of deciding how
we go forward properly to keep nailing it. And I
mean that's what actually a lot of the work that's
gone on in Southwestlands to proved we can clean out
in these areas on the main Lange because we know
we can do it on offshore islands. But we've really
been experimenting and improving that point and moving all the
(29:41):
things we need to learn to take it forward to
go bigger. So that's exciting, but it's constrained by the
speeds you can go and the speed we need to
go through farms and all those things. But yeah, it
really needs to start jacking up and moving on because
we are seeing more possums in the areas where control
(30:01):
has stopped.
Speaker 3 (30:02):
There must be pretty demoralizing for farmers on the coast.
When you can see the benefit from these programs having
gone hard, you can see the rates of TV declining
and then thinking maybe they've actually taken their foot off
the throat. This might start to reverse.
Speaker 7 (30:20):
It was one of the things that when the system
was ramped up and it was showing some success and
the funds were cut a little bit, there were some
very strong letters from all over the country sent into
the Minister of Agriculture at the time saying don't put
your foot off its throat, or if you do, we
want some guarantees around you, put more money and if
it starts to decline again, yeah, we'll deal with it
(30:42):
another way or whatever, because it is a huge concern,
and of course there's farmers out there, younger farmers who
don't know what it's like to live under that pressure
of TB and all those TB tests and good cows
go and you can't get a hedge yet it leaves
and your sale opportunity for animals disappears, and it's just very,
(31:03):
very stressful and horrible. So we don't want to go
back to that.
Speaker 3 (31:05):
And you mentioned, you know, for people who have no
concept of it because they haven't been through it. I
absolutely sympathize because one of my first farming jobs was
in Wales where TV is just rampant. You're still tested
with parishes. We were testing all the time. If someone
ran the herd past our herd and they shouldn't have
you know, you had to test again and it's so frustrating.
(31:27):
So I really hope that in twenty twenty five that
gets addressed and actually you get the results you need
their Katie kt milon West Coast Stairy Farmer, really appreciate
your time on the country today. Go well and we'll
catch up again soon.
Speaker 7 (31:40):
Yeah, let's hope that we can get enough road to
keep going. Having a great summer and autumn and everyone's
who's getting too much. It's a bit of a break
from it because yeah, the seasons are interesting, aren't there,
and we all want to be prepared for what's around
the corner.
Speaker 3 (31:53):
Yeah, absolutely right. It is coming up ten away from one.
You are with the country. Fantastic ticks messages coming through
to five, double O nine to get in the drawer
for those cherries. Some of you have put a lot
of work into what you think might be Jamie mckaye's
score at Roxburgh during the week. Some scientific work going
on there. Yeah, keep them coming again. We want you
(32:16):
to winner till after one. We will announce the winner
on tomorrow's show. And just listening to Katie, they're talking
about predators and pests and stuff. Apparently China's got quite
an issue with wild pigs, so we'll talk to Hunter
McGregor about that tomorrow. I think I might be needed
in China. I might need to go and help them.
That's shortly wild pig situation. Up next, we wrap the
(32:36):
show Dan Bryer out of Beef and Land, New Zealand,
wrapping the country for your Tuesday looking at facial exmer
obviously becoming more widespread in New Zealand, especially as the
climate changes. You know, in some places farmers who haven't
had to deal with it and generations are farming and
(32:57):
now having to upskill on it and find out about
it really quick. So joining me now is Dan Bryer,
Beef and Lamb, New Zealand and GM for Farm Excellence.
Good afternoon, Dan hi Rowen, how are you very well?
Thank you? Look Beef and Lamb, New Zealand and leading
the Eliminating Facial x ME Impact Program, a seven year
program because obviously this is quite a big deal for farmers.
(33:20):
How big a deal is it.
Speaker 5 (33:23):
It's a massive deal. So, particularly in the north half
of the North Island, we see every year farmers have
to deal with facial x ME. We think it costs
the industry something like three hundred and thirty two million
dollars every year. So this is across sheep and beef
and dairy and even the goats and everyone else as well.
But that's a massive amount of money that we're losing
(33:44):
every year because of facial X month.
Speaker 3 (33:45):
Absolutely. So I mentioned you've got this seven year program.
You're working with a lot of industry partners on what
is that hoping to achieve?
Speaker 5 (33:54):
So, facial xmath has been around for a long time
and in fact, Urakura the research station was set up
there partly because of the face leaksma challenge around here.
What we're hoping to do is look at some of
that old science and find updated find some new solutions,
find some new opportunities or ways that farmers can deal
with facial exma. And our ultimate goal is that we
(34:14):
can eliminate the impacts of facial ex farmers in New Zealand.
Speaker 3 (34:18):
You need help from farmers to do this, obviously, have
you had goodbye and so far?
Speaker 5 (34:24):
Yeah, absolutely, it's been really really exciting. We've been running
what's been known as the Sheep Poose Study for a
year now and we've had hundreds of farmers join up
to that and give us their information, which is helping
to build a picture of where face LEXM is around
the country. And we've got lots more opportunities for farmers
to jump in and be involved as well.
Speaker 3 (34:43):
Absolutely, you've got a survey going out to farmers. Is
it next week?
Speaker 5 (34:48):
Yeah? Absolutely, And it's really crucialized so as we get
into the start of these programs if we can get
a really good survey sample from farmers about what they're
doing on their farm, the impacts it's having, both for
farmers who are having in impact, but also for others
as well, so that when we come back throughout the
program and particularly at the end, we can see what's
changed over time. We can see if we've had an impact,
(35:09):
but also the changes that facial exceners causing are on
their property. So really really important. If if anyone's got
some time to put into that survey, I really really
encourage him to do so.
Speaker 2 (35:20):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (35:20):
And that's just on the Beef and Name website.
Speaker 5 (35:23):
Yep. Absolutely, and we'll also be sending it out through
our rural media and other areas as well. But absolutely
go to the Beef and Land New Zealand website and
you'll be able to track down the facial XMA program.
Speaker 3 (35:34):
I've mentioned on the show several times that I started
my dairy farming career in Ireland in Wales and we
were autumn carving, so you know, we didn't see the
impacts of facial exma so much over there, but when
I returned to Taranaki straight away, it's such an awful
thing to deal with on farm.
Speaker 5 (35:53):
It's horrendous, right, and in my previous role as a bitinarian,
we spent all the time and energy helping farmers with
facial xma. It's also a relatively unique New Zealand problem,
so you wouldn't have seen.
Speaker 3 (36:04):
It, that'll be why.
Speaker 5 (36:06):
Yeah, yeah, so you wouldn't have seen it in the
northern Hemisphere. But it also means no one's going to
solve this for us, right, we can't. It's not going
to be some international drug company that comes up with
a magic solution or something out of the feed lots
in the US. This is a New Zealand problem that
we need to solve. And for two hundred and thirty
two million dollars, I reckon it's worth very.
Speaker 3 (36:24):
Fing Oh absolutely, it's just money down the drain otherwise,
not to mention the pressure that's social pressure on farmers
and on the stock themselves as well, that wellbeing pressure. Look,
we've got a four part podcast launching on the Country's
podcast channel this afternoon. I'm taking an in depth dive
into facial XMA. So keep your eyes peeled for that one.
I will pop it up on our Facebook page later today,
(36:47):
and keep your eyes on your inbox or on that
Beef and Lamb website for the survey coming up next week.
Dan Bryer, Beef and Lamb, New Zealand GM of Farm Excellence.
Thanks so much for your time and all the best
with this study. It really is important to farmers appreciate
your time.
Speaker 5 (37:03):
Yeah, thank you, thanks ver much and thanks for your support.
Speaker 3 (37:05):
Oh no worry, so feeling a little bit blonde. Not
realizing that facial exma wasn't in the northern hemisphere. That'll
be why we didn't know about it until I got
home to New Zealand. Hey, just to put everyone out
of their misery. Seventy five is what Jamie McCamy scored
at Roxburgh. As I said, it doesn't matter if you
were correct or not. Everyone is in the drawer. I'm
(37:25):
just glad today I forgot my phone at home because
I did make a quip yesterday about being so proud
of him that had shot his age, of course, inflating
his age by ten years, so I think it's a
good thing I've gone today without a phone. Yesterday was
wearing the garage slides to work instead of my actual
work shoes. Gosh, it is hard getting back into work mode,
isn't it. Tomorrow I'm going to try and track someone
(37:46):
down about foot and mouth and Germany YEP authorities confirmed
the country's first outbreak in forty years on last week,
so yeah, pretty scary times. We will try and track
someone down about that. Enjoy your day, I will catch
you back to Murrow.
Speaker 1 (38:01):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
podcast with Jamie McGue Thanks to Brent, your specialist in
John Deere Machinery
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