March 3, 2025 • 38 mins
Jamie Mackay talks to Rob Hewett, Cameron Bagrie, Hunter McGregor, and Dr Jacqueline Rowarth.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie mcguy. Thanks to Brent. You're specialist in
John Dee machinery. Somebody cast to me.
Speaker 2 (00:19):
Good looking around She's a mine. Get a New Zealand.
Welcome to the Country. It's brought to you by Brent.
My name is Jamie McKay. This is Patrick Swayzee. Got
(00:39):
my movie. He's mixed up between ghost and dirty Dancing.
Tell you more about that later. The important issue of
the day or one of them. Rob Hewitt, he's the
chairman of literally everything in New Zealand agriculture. Now he's
picking a fight with Bremworth. He's a South Otago farmer.
He's also the chair of Agri zero en Z. I'm
(01:03):
going to ask him about carbon farming in his neck
of the woods because literally his beautiful little town of
Lawrence is quickly becoming enveloped by pine trees. For better
or worse? Are we going to have a chat to
Cameron Bagri, Independent Economist? Is the economic recovery on? And
what about Trump's tariffs? His month long stay of execution
(01:25):
is just about finished. The markets have reacted very poorly
on Wall Street today we'll get Cam's take on that
the tariffs and also what it might mean for New Zealand.
What Trump's actions might mean for New Zealand exchange and
interest rates which affect us all. Hunter McGregor's our guy
(01:46):
in China, as the Great Trumpster would say. Amongst other things,
they've got this Chinese animated movie. It was Oscar's Day
yesterday and Demi Moore who was in Dirty Dancing, wasn't
she No, she wasn't and Dirty Dancing. She was in
Ghost with Patrick Swaezey. She missed out on the on
the Oscar yesterday, but there's this Chinese animated movie which
(02:08):
is taking the world by storm. We're also going to
talk about the high speed rail network in China. We
could kill fit to have one of those here in
New Zealand. And Jacquiline Rowith, this is an interesting one
handcake Day. I didn't realize today was pancake Day. Some
of the Catholics out there will realize today is also
Shrove Tuesday. We're going to talk about lent giving up
(02:32):
stuff as well. All that's on the country. Michelle will
wander in here with the latest and rural news. We'll
have a look at sport for you as well. But
we're going to kick it off with the Chairman of Everything,
Rob Hewitt Play. He's a South Otago far and at
(03:01):
twenty twenty three he was named the Deloitte Top two
hundred Chairperson of the Year. No wonder because he's literally
chairing everything in this country. His name is Rob Hewitt,
current chair of Silver Fern Farms. To be fair, he's
retiring from that this year, Chair of Farmlands war Works,
Agri Zero en Z. I want to come back to
that one, Hilton Haulidge, Pioneer Energy, Fern Energy, Rewiring Art
(03:26):
as well as being a director of TNG Global. Hey
Rob Hewitt, you've got a lot on your plate. Why
are you picking a fight with Bremworth? You want to
be the chair of that entity as well? What are
you a bit like Tim Shadboll. I just want to
be chair, it doesn't matter where.
Speaker 3 (03:41):
Yeah, good idea, Jamie. It's not the first time I've
heard that line, Jomie. Look, I do quite a lot
of governance work and for some reason, these opportunities come
up and it seems to work. So I don't have
any secret source, but these opportunities come along and look
(04:02):
I wasn't looking for this one with Bremworth, but the
shareholders approached us probably after the AGM, which was late
last year, was when it first started heating up, and
it got quite a bit of attention later on, sort
of over the January period, and the whole thing's culminated
with the six month inenyear result that came out last week,
which is you know, the Shielders heard of Gutsville, so
(04:23):
they're looking around going what the hell can we do?
We have lost confidence on the board as it stands
at the moment. Yeah, so here we are.
Speaker 2 (04:32):
Well, apparently eleven percent of signed the formal requisition notice.
You reckon, you've got backing from thirty five percent of
the shareholders. The mat still doesn't work on that.
Speaker 3 (04:43):
Yeah, they've been a little bit. Yes, that's true. Eleven
and a half percent of the shareholders have signed the
requisition form, which is only four Shielders. We have spoken
to over thirty four just around thirty five percent of
the share register or the shareholders who own thirty five
percent of the shares, and we have got support for
what well we are acting on what they want to do.
(05:06):
So I can tell you right now the thirty five
percent at least of the shar register is supportive of
this direction. So the eleven and a half just sign it.
You need you need five percent of the shareholders by
volume to sign a requisition and then the board is
obligated to take it forward to a meeting. And that's
all that is. All right.
Speaker 2 (05:26):
Let's have a look at Bremworth. Admirable as it was,
was it a mistake in twenty twenty one when they
decided to produce only wool carpets.
Speaker 3 (05:36):
Look, it's a really interesting comment and the short answer
I think is possibly. But you know, first blush, I mean,
we've got to get a head under the hood and
have a look. I guess a couple of ovisations I
make Jamie, is it? You know, natural sustainable? There is
absolutely cast customers for that product around the world. We
know that at Silver fir and Farms, and quite frankly,
this is a New Zealand opportunity. Bremworth is one of
the strong brands that we need to be strong because
(05:59):
it really underput is the product that we make on
our sheep and beef farms and takes that product to market,
so we know those customers are out there. What appears
to have not happened is that costs have not well,
costs haven't been taken into account. By the look of it,
costs are significantly higher than what you would expect with
the volume of businesses being done, and nothing's been done
(06:20):
on the outside looking in to trim it. And that's
the problem. You know, the sales have diminished. To be
fair to Bremworth, there's been you know, a couple of
little instances like COVID and then the Toato flood with
cycling Gabrielle where they had significant amount of water through
the plant. Both of those sort of things, they bug
it things up for a couple of years and so
(06:40):
to give them credit, it hasn't been playing sailing. But
fundamentally the direction of travel for the business has been
downhill and the shareholders have run out of patients. And
that's why we are where.
Speaker 4 (06:51):
We are today now.
Speaker 2 (06:52):
As I said, you chair Woolworks which operates a wool
scout opposite Brimworth's plant in Napier, Is that a conflictive interest?
Speaker 3 (07:01):
Na, NA, No, it's not. I mean Warworks, well not
at the moment. And you know Warworks has a commercial
relationship with Bremworth to supply scuard Will's that's you know,
that'll that'll be noted on the conflicts register if it
does go eventuate. And I just don't have anything to
do with those negotiations anyway. And even if I did,
I'll be out of the room. I'll be in the
(07:22):
naughty boys room. But look, it's the same conversation where
I might Hilton Hallage provides logistical services for silver Feen Farms.
You know, it's listed on the interest register and and
we deal with it accordingly if it comes up, and
it usually doesn't. So if there are no conflicts at
the moment, apart from that commercial relationship, the fact that
(07:42):
we're over the road makes no difference. Really, this this,
I must stress this, This initiative with Bremworth is the
Bramworth shareholders have asked for this to happen. This is
not a warworks gig and so they're two completely separate issues.
Although it's all around wall.
Speaker 2 (08:01):
Well Bremer it's got two thousand and six hundred shareholders.
I think ACC's one of them. But is this just
a few of your rich mates getting the pip?
Speaker 3 (08:11):
Well, to be fair, we've only spoken to thirty five
percent of the share registry. So I guess they hold
a few shears. Whether they're rich or not, I don't.
I don't know, but that's not really the issue here. Look,
the shareholders have had enough. There's been ten years with performance.
If you go back and have a look at the
end your results that have been put into the company's office,
(08:33):
which they'll be there because Brnworth is a listed company
and they have to report on this sort of thing,
you'll see the direction. I think the shareholders have been
long suffering.
Speaker 2 (08:41):
Quite frankly, Rob, let me change direction on you put
on your agri zero in z hat A lot of
talk out there amongst certain fraternities and farming that we're
wasting our time being a part of the Paris Climate
Accordal or Climate Agreement. I'm sure you'll disagree with that.
Speaker 3 (08:58):
It's an interesting one. Yeah, it's it's been interesting since
Trump's come in in the States as to what people's
attitudes towards this around the world has been, and it
feels like there's been a relaxation. Look a couple of
observations i'd make you know, those discerning consumers I talked
about before, the ones that silver firm farms are trying
to reach the ones that Bremworth is trying to reach.
(09:21):
Those customers value this sort of stuff. The fact that
Trump's in power at the moment and he's apparently taken
the hammer off these environmental initiatives, it sort of masks
the observation that about forty nine percent of the voters
over there didn't vote for them, and those customers are
the ones that want this sort of stuff. So climate
and sustainability are going to continue to be important metrics
(09:43):
and absolutely for New Zealand because those consumers are the
ones that want to buy our products. So you know,
quite frankly, I couldn't care about the legislation. The government
as a regulator is the last stop. The first stop
is the customer and if they want something, you better listen.
There's are the ones that will pay the premium. That's
where it starts and finishes for me.
Speaker 2 (10:03):
Well, the market will always decide farmer behavior.
Speaker 3 (10:08):
It should, well farmers should listen to it. Yeah, that's
absolutely right, and that's part of what I'm saying here.
You know, they're still going to be a big market
for commodity feed, you know, whether it's grind to beef
or whether it's factory farm chicken or pork. You know
those consumers that eat that stuff. Quite frankly, it's price
sensitivity and they environmental sustainability would be well down the
(10:28):
list of attributes that they're looking for because I probably
can't afford the product, to be completely blunt about it,
but there are consumers that we sell to that do
want those products, are prepared to pay for it and
value those attributes that the Paris Accord are espousing. So
as a country, we'd be wise to listen to that
because they're not going away, and that's where our premiums
(10:49):
come from.
Speaker 4 (10:50):
We've really got to listen to it.
Speaker 3 (10:51):
It's actually very disruptive, Okay.
Speaker 2 (10:53):
Can I get a quick final comment from you when
you're not sharing every board known to mankind? Rob Hewitt,
You're a South farmer based near a little town called Lawrence,
of course, famous for Gabriel's Gully and the gold mining
boom of the eighteen sixties. Beautiful little town. The only
problem is you're surrounded by pine trees and getting surrounded
(11:14):
by more and more by the day. Will you be
known this beautiful little town as the carbon capital of
the country shortly?
Speaker 5 (11:23):
Well?
Speaker 3 (11:23):
Should I hope not, Jamie. I mean the community will
be gone and this is replicated. I mean you just
need to go up to Warrappa and you had the
same conversation. You know, we grow trees. Well, yeah, that's true.
I've got a bunch of trees on my place, but
they're all in gullies where the gorse was and the
ridges and the paddocks are still paddocks. And that's my
fervent hope that as farmers we get the optionality to
continue to make those choices. You know, trees in the
(11:46):
right place are a good thing. Trees everywhere is not.
And it's probably fair to say that livestock everywhere is
not either. You know, the production mentality that we had
in the seventies, Sister doesn't probably last. But you know,
those concerning consumers, they look at our own farm production
systems as well, and communities like Lawrence. They absolutely need
people in our schools for our sports club's full our
(12:06):
ambulance services, all that sort of thing.
Speaker 4 (12:09):
We need people to be here.
Speaker 3 (12:10):
Trees just don't allow that to happen.
Speaker 2 (12:12):
If they come at scale, well, Rob, if it continues
on the way it's going, you're going to need a
good Fire Brigade and Lawrence in about twenty or thirty
years time. If you don't mind me saying.
Speaker 3 (12:21):
So, yes Jesus, I hope no, I hope not. Jamie, well, hey,
good that we've got a good that we've got a
fiber gate, but that they tend to get called out
the car crashes actually more than anything else.
Speaker 2 (12:30):
Yep, okay mate, good to catch up. Thank you very
much for your time. Rob Hewett, the chairman of everything,
see you later.
Speaker 3 (12:36):
Yeah, good only Jamie, thanks very much, she led.
Speaker 2 (12:39):
Me twenty after twelve. Rob Hewitt, he is literally the
chairman of everything. The It was his title the twenty
twenty three Deloitte Top two hundred Chairperson of the Year.
But not everyone thinks that. Show us the money is
Silver Fern shareholders, Charlie few premiums. I took a bit
(13:03):
of artistic liberty with that. Text wasn't readable in its
present form. Here's another one. Silver Fern Farms and Farmlands
have lost nearly two hundred million in the last two
years between them. Rob Hewitt is the chairman of both companies.
When is he going to resign? It's a bit tough,
(13:24):
So there you go. You feedback on five Double nine. Lawrence,
by the way, especially for North Island as you may
or may not have been there. If you're driving from
Dunedin through to Queenstown or Central Otarga, you go through Lawrence.
It's a stunning town. The facade of the main streets
largely unchanged. It wasn't all knocked over and replaced by
(13:48):
horrible concrete buildings like a lot of rural New Zealand
towns were in the fifties and sixties. Of course, Gabriel's
Gullies just up the gully awebit from Lawrence. Gold was
discovered there, I think off the top of my head
in eighteen sixty one. And it's also the venue for
one of my favorite farming events of the year, and
(14:08):
that's the Century Farm and Station Awards, which will be
happening in Lawrence during May, where we recognize farms that
have been in the same family ownership for one hundred years.
A wonderful will still be doing that in one hundred
years time. Up next, Cameron Bagriy, are we on the
is the economy on the recovery? We'll get his thoughts
(14:31):
on that and Trump's causing all sorts of trouble around
the world at the moment. Will get his views on
that one and how it affects the Zellen farmers. It's
on the country. He's an independent economist. I love catching
(15:10):
up with them here on the country, Cameron Bagriy, here's
a starter for ten for your Cameron. When's the economic
recovery beginning or has it?
Speaker 5 (15:19):
Well, the economic recovery is underway and started in the
fourth quarter of twenty twenty four A sort of blink,
you might have missed it. Yeah, but recovery is are
sort of there's two stages.
Speaker 4 (15:33):
Look.
Speaker 5 (15:33):
Stage one is getting what's called economic growth. That's the
cant of forward propulsion, and we've got that at the moment.
Speaker 4 (15:40):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (15:40):
Stage two is you need to get a totality or
an aggregation of that forward propulsion before you start to
see the level of activity back up acceptable levels.
Speaker 4 (15:51):
See.
Speaker 5 (15:52):
Basically need to see six to nine months of happier
time before people out there generally start to see the
rare economic benefits that's coming around.
Speaker 4 (15:59):
The middle of twenty and twenty five.
Speaker 2 (16:01):
There are a lot of people out there at the
moment who aren't feeling the love.
Speaker 5 (16:06):
Well, it's been tough, Yeah, twenty twenty four. If you
look at the official Economic statistics GDP for CAPA that's
population adjusted GDP, you're the biggest tip we've seen since
the GFC. We can debate whether it was the biggest
tip from the GFC. You know, the unemployment rate at
five point one percent, there's nowhere near the levels we
got during the GFC. You think non point lines are
(16:28):
nowhere near obviously got within the GFC. But it's face
for you. It's been pretty tough times. But maybe people
have just got used to the good times or some
of those that giddy times we saw in twenty twenty
one and twenty twenty two, and a lot of I
think what we're seeing over twenty and twenty four was
a little bit of coming back down to earth. We've
we've let the air out of the bag side of
(16:49):
speak in normaloty beacons.
Speaker 2 (16:51):
Well, interest rates fall as far as we hoped and expected.
Speaker 5 (16:57):
Well, they've already come down a reasonably long way. And
the Reserve bankers out there saying, you know, they think
they'll be cutting their official carest right another two to
three twenty five basis point cuts, taking the OCEID around
three percent by the end of the year. What does
that mean in reality for borrows? We're now starting to
see those fixed mortgage rates touched down below five percent,
(17:18):
you know, a high four number. Do I think we're
going to see interest rates back with a three or
a two in front of the answer is no. But
your interest rates have come down a long way from
those sort of six and a half percent levels that
we were seeing twelve months ago.
Speaker 2 (17:30):
So if you were coming off a fixed rate right
at the moment for your farm, or your house, or
your business, would you be tempted to go in and
fix again? Now take some of those, for instance, in
housing sub five percent rates.
Speaker 5 (17:44):
Yeah. Well, so if I have a look at what
I'm targeting at the moment, within my residential properties, all
my investments sort of stuff, I try to get an
average rate of around five.
Speaker 4 (17:56):
Yeah. If I can get something sub.
Speaker 5 (17:59):
Five, yeah, whether it be all one area, a two year,
you know, I'm going to be reasonably happy with that.
Speaker 4 (18:04):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (18:05):
I don't think we going back to those sort of
days that we're going to see mortgage interest rates with
the two or three percent hand on the front of it.
Speaker 4 (18:11):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (18:12):
The new normal is perhaps, Yeah, the old normal Jamie
the sort of stuff that we saw pre.
Speaker 4 (18:18):
Pre COVID as opposed to post COVID.
Speaker 5 (18:20):
The problem is a whole lot of people, I guess,
might have consisted their borrowing expectations of what we saw
was some pretty remarkable boring experiences in that twenty twenty
tw twenty one period.
Speaker 2 (18:30):
See Cameron. I've been around long enough I can remember
my golden rule back in the nineties was that if
it was under seven percent, I was locking it in.
So it's just about expectation, isn't it.
Speaker 4 (18:42):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (18:42):
And one of the reasons that, yeah, the expectations are
lower now than what we saw to it are twenty
to thirty years there. That because what's called the neutral
official cash rate is lower, and the neutral official cash
rated here the reserve events neither got the foot on
an accelerator or the break. You think of it as
that sort of holiday he used to period where if
you and all the Reserve bank governors up there taking
(19:03):
the six months abad it call the tailot because he's
not doing too much. That number went from about five
and a half percent down to two percent, so dragged
actual mortgage rates down with it. That number is now
on the rising in it looks like it's up around
sort of three percent. You have the neutral official cashtrate
that's when the Reserve Bank's on holiday is around three percent.
Then you sort of neutral boring rate. There's going to
(19:24):
be somewhere around five percent for a residential wants.
Speaker 2 (19:28):
Now the trumpet tariffs, the one month pause on tariffs
on Mexico and Canada is about to end. How do
you see this playing out?
Speaker 5 (19:39):
Well, we're at risk at the moment globally of a
full blown trade war. Now where this goes we don't know.
But if you look at what the OECD, what the
imere for everybody's basically saying tariffs or a trade war
is going to be bad for global growth and it's
going to be bad for inflation. What we're seeing is
that your tariffs or the three of teriffs have now
(19:59):
been increased. We're used as a weapon. You had to
get what countries want. And if you go back, there's
a big overarching theme here. And the big theme is
that our rules based trading system that we've used to
for thirty years, where they played nice and abided by
the rules, is now being you see it by countries
exercise and power and this is not just a miracle
with tariffs. This is China Taiwan, this is Ukraine versus Russia,
(20:22):
this is the Middle East, and this is the new normal.
You know, the rules based system. There's now a power
based system, and a power based system favors the big
over before.
Speaker 2 (20:32):
Is the world being run by Trump? She and putin.
Speaker 4 (20:34):
Now, oh well, interesting to see that.
Speaker 5 (20:38):
Yeah, Europe stepped up in the past sort of forty
eight hours as well in regard to their commitment to Ukraine.
So yeah, we're starting to see a little bit of
response from the other side. Because the only way to
stand up to a bully, you stand up for them.
Speaker 2 (20:52):
Let's just stick with that US theme, Cameron bagri And
depends on economists. I see that we're trading at about
fifty six US cents at the moment. Where do you
see that going.
Speaker 5 (21:03):
Here or that currency popping down from the sixty one
to sixty two down into the fifty fifty seven cents
owners they provide a little bit of cream on top
for exporters. We've seen in New Zealand dollar returns for
red meat and dairy you've obviously popped an awful lot high.
You starting to see a lot more confidence come across
the rural sector and the hope is that they'll open
the cheap book in the back half of two thousand
(21:24):
and twenty five. My person review is that I think
the New Zealand dollar is going to have another nudge
at fifty five cents. And one of the reasons I
think we're going to have another nudge at fifty five
cents is that I think the United States has got
an inflation problem. And if they've got an inflation problem,
then I think the US fed a Reserve is not
going to be cutting rates, and as the reason chance,
they're going to be hiking rates in the exit of
sixty five months. So what's the space.
Speaker 2 (21:44):
Yeah, I think a lot of farmers out there listening
could probably live with an exchange rate of you as
fifty five cents. Cameron Bagrie, always enjoy your good common
sense here on the country. Thanks for your.
Speaker 5 (21:55):
Time, all the best, I thinks.
Speaker 2 (21:58):
And as twenty eight away from a one farmer who's
listening and is Gordon Rennie. He's in New Zealand for
six weeks. Hello Gordon, thanks for listening, and he says,
I'm a British farmer and a Nuffield Scholar. He goes
on to write UK consumers want one thing, low prices
for all food. Look at the rise of Audi, the
(22:20):
German discounts store. Net zero is nowhere in the minds
of the vast majority of consumers, and a cost of
living crisis. That is, as I said from Gordon Rennie,
British farmer in the country at the moment. Interesting Maria
feedback after the break Michelle Scott Rural News. We've got
(22:40):
some good news on the red meat front from the
Meat Industry Association before the end of the hour. Cameron,
not Cameron Bagriy. We've just had him what's his name,
Hunter McGregor. Now Hunter's talking movies as well. This is
these songs are from Dirty Dancing. We thought Demi was
(23:01):
in it. I didn't look. I better get it out
of the road now, Michelle, you and I were having
a discussion on the last break in the eighties, right, Yes,
it was like a rugged rugby player. That's my memory
of myself. But look, I watched Rambo and Arnie Schwarzenegger.
I never really did ghost and dirty dancing and that
(23:21):
sort of stuff, so that's why I got confused with
the soundtracks.
Speaker 6 (23:26):
It's no dates at this and James Theater and Gore
for you.
Speaker 2 (23:29):
Uh well, the trouble with the Saint James Theater and
Gore and it's great now they do a great job.
They get now, they get movies as soon as they're
released like most places do. But back in the day,
not quite silent movies, Michelle. But back in the day
you literally had to wait about three months till a
movie sort of arrived in smaller, rural New Zealand. You
(23:53):
tell the young people of today that I'll tell you
what they won't believe you. Rural news next. Okay, welcome
back to the country. Very shortly the good news from
the Meat Industry Association. But here at the Country, we
want to send you to the New Zealand Horticulture Conference.
(24:17):
It's happening in Wellington. Great city to visit, despite some
of the politicians who are running it in August. Now
we could be sending you in a friend for two
days of insights, networking and industry innovation. So you know,
if you're in the horticulture industry, this is for you.
So head to the Country dot co dot in z
(24:39):
to be and to win. Tickets are for two to
the two day conference the Gala dinner Bus. We're going
to throw in flights and accommodation from anywhere in New Zealand.
It's all happening at the Horticulture New Zealand Conference. Remember
head to the Country dot co dot in z to
be in to win those tickets. Here's the latest and
(24:59):
Rus news.
Speaker 1 (25:01):
The country's world news with Culp Cadet, New Zealand's leading
right on lawn Bower brand. Visit steel Ford dot co
dot NZB for your local stockist.
Speaker 6 (25:11):
There has been a strong start to the year for
red meat exports. According to the latest figures from the
Meat Industry Association, export values in January increase twenty eight
percent year on year to nine hundred and twenty seven million.
The USA was the largest market for the month of January,
counting at for two hundred and seventy seven million in exports,
with an increase in exports of sixty four percent year
(25:33):
on year. The value of sheep meat exports rose by
twenty two percent. Beef exports rose by six percent in
volume and thirty five percent in value to four hundred
and nine million. The fifth quarter exports increased to twenty
two percent and you can find more rural news at
the Country dot co dot MZ.
Speaker 1 (25:50):
Sport with AFCO visit them online at a fco dot
co dot nz.
Speaker 2 (25:55):
Ah second Bash for al Alash, there's a poet in
our sport department. At the New Zealand Squash Open in
christ Church, the nineteen year old has been given a
wild card into the main drawer. After losing her first
round match in four games on debut at Taronga in
twenty twenty three. Lash says she's better poised to perform
(26:18):
this time around and Hoskins. Setutu has been handed a
three week ban, which can reduce two if he's a
good boy and does a stint a tackle score for
a dangerous tackle. And the Blues Super Rugby went over
the Hurricanes in Wellington. The number eight was shown the
red card for shoulder to head contact on loose Ford
Peter Larkeye. Sotutu's clean disciplinary record meant the Foul Play
(26:41):
Review Committee half the original six week sanction to three.
That's sports news for you. Remember if you want to
go to the Horticulture New Zealand Annual Conference in Wellington
in August, head to the Country dot co dot nz
to win. We're going to fly you there, feed and water.
You're going to learn a whole lot while you're there.
(27:02):
Up next, Hunter McGregor in China. So you've heard from
Cameron Bagory about the state of the New Zealand economy.
Let's have a look at the state of the economy
of our largest trading partner, China. Our guy over there
is Hunter McGregor, based out of Shanghai, selling venison and
red meat to the Chinese Hunter every time I talk
(27:25):
to you, you're a bit down on the mouth about
the Chinese economy. Are there any green shoots?
Speaker 7 (27:31):
Oh, good afternoon, Jamie. Well, yea Sunday we had a
pretty plenty of green shoots here. We had a very
warm day. It was twenty nine degrees, which is the
warmest day and one hundred and one hundred and fifty
years of early March. And yes, everyone was out and
about and F and B was rocking along. So yeah,
(27:53):
there was a green shoots that day. And then Monday
we got up to high of a nine degrees, so
it all came crashing back down.
Speaker 2 (28:00):
Twenty eight degrees basically at the end of your want
is pretty warm.
Speaker 7 (28:05):
Yeah, it was. It was great. It was really good
for a Sunday. You're very warm, but it's not normal.
And there's snow in north of China, and there's snow
in Hung Joe just an hour or so or a
couple of hours drive and land, so you know, it's
sort of the unsettled weather pattern we get this time
of year, and we're back to some colder weather for
(28:26):
the rest of the week.
Speaker 2 (28:27):
Talk to me about the high speed rail network in China.
I've been lucky enough to have ridden on a couple
of your bullet trains. They go flat out. In fact,
I think Shanghai to Beijing is almost as quick by
train as it is by plane. Yeah.
Speaker 7 (28:43):
No, the infrastructure and the high speed trains in China
is fantastic. You know, they've built over the last few
years up to about forty five thousand kilometers of high
speed rail networks. They're planning on building another twenty five
thousand more. And the trains, you know, for a high
speed train in China, they're going to run between sort
of three hundred and three hundred, two hundred and three
(29:05):
hundred and eighty kilometers an hour. They usually run around
about sort of three hundred to three hundred and fifty
so between Shanghai and Beijing it's about four and a
half hours from door to door if if it's direct.
There's obviously Hoba trains that stop along the way, and
that's about the length of New Zealand at that distance.
(29:26):
What they're doing at the moment is they're developing new
trains which will run These trains designed to run about
three hundred to three hundred and fifty k's. The new
ones will designed to run four hundred to four hundred
and fifty k's on the same track, so that will
just about take it as fast as an aeroplane between
between most cities, in some cases faster because by the
(29:48):
time you fluff around at the airport and planes are
never on time in China, well anywhere. It was a
bit like New Zealand. So yeah, that's quite exciting and
it's a new development, and yeah they're pushing boundaries of
technology and R and D.
Speaker 4 (30:02):
So which is great.
Speaker 2 (30:02):
Yesterday, New Zealand at time was Oscar's Day. For my sins,
I've watched two movies in the last two nights, Bridget
Jones's Diary or Mad About the Boy, whatever it is.
It was a five or six at best. And the
other one is the Substance with Demi Moore, who everyone
expected to win an Oscar. She didn't. It was sci
fi rubbish if you ask me. But you want to
(30:23):
talk about a Chinese movie that's breaking box office records.
Speaker 7 (30:28):
Well, there's a Chinese animated movie called Jin r II.
It just came out in the twenty ninth of January
and it's sold one point nine billion US dollars and
ticket sales already. It's been a phenomenon.
Speaker 4 (30:42):
It's massive.
Speaker 7 (30:43):
It's a Chinese animated fantasy movie. It's for kids and
for adults, and it's just massive. And it's been only
out for a month, but it's now the I think
the seventh grossing highest film ever. It's the highest grossing
ever animated film. It will probably go higher in the
(31:05):
list because this is starting to be launched around the
world in theaters. It's a it's a Chinese movie, fully
developed in China, and it's it's massive. So you know,
I haven't seen it yet because they don't have English
subtitles in the theaters here, but I'll probably watch it
on a streaming service at some point in the future.
Speaker 2 (31:24):
Oh, come on, Hunter, you've been over there long enough
to know the language inside out. Man up and do it.
Talking about manning up, we all need to man up.
On Friday, apparently it's International Woman's Day.
Speaker 4 (31:35):
Yeah.
Speaker 7 (31:36):
Yeah, the third of the eighth of March is International
Woman's Day. So I'm sure you've got a big event
already planned for for for your daily beloved. But we've
actually got Kiwi Drinks this this Friday, because every first
Friday of the month here in Shanghai, Kiwis get together
(31:57):
and we raise a bit of money for charity and
have a few few cold bears. There's no Makaiser at
the moment up here, be working on that. But yeah,
so as anyone's passing through Shanghai the first Friday, come
along to Kiwi Drinks. It's open to anyone.
Speaker 2 (32:13):
Hey, A final question for you off the script. Are
the Chinese talking about Donald Trump?
Speaker 7 (32:19):
Yeah, a little bit. They're not really too worried about
what's going on, you know, with the tariffs coming in
and all that sort of stuff. It's all been predicted,
so you know that, the like everybody else, are watching
with interest, but there's not much what anyone can do,
so they're just seeing how things play out.
Speaker 2 (32:35):
Hey, Hunter McGregor, always appreciate your time here on the
Country from Shanghai.
Speaker 7 (32:39):
Cheers, thanks mate.
Speaker 2 (32:42):
That is Hunter McGregor, obviously going to take a break.
Jaqueline roll with on Pancake Day and the history behind it.
Next Fortnightly on our website The Country dot co dot nz,
doctor Jaquelin Rowath writes an excellent column today's putting the
boat into green Peas. Love it when that happens. Jacqueline,
(33:04):
my word's not yours. My word's not yours, but I
always learn something when I check to you. Today is
Pancake Day, also known as Shrove Tuesday exactly.
Speaker 8 (33:17):
So let us celebrate the farmers of the world, because
this is the ceremony around the world that allows the
pancakes to be made. And I've done a calculation of it.
It's about four dollars to make ten to fourteen pancakes.
And so we're going to celebrate the egg producers, thank
you for not getting any more avian flu. We celebrate
(33:39):
the bread that the wheat producers, and we certainly celebrate
the dairy cow for the milk and butter. And let's
say we add mints because we could have a savory pancake.
Then we can add thank yous to the beef and
sheep farmers, or indeed the bacon farmers, the producers of
pork products, because we are grateful for all that they
do for us, aren't we? Jack.
Speaker 2 (34:00):
So this relates back to feasting the day before Lent
starts and Catholics, and I was raised to Catholic, and
I remember with great shock and or having to go
without lollies. I mean, what a small price to pay
during Lent for six weeks. I think it was up
until Easter. So tomorrow's ash Wednesday, Lent begins for the Catholics.
(34:21):
And this traditionally was a feast day.
Speaker 8 (34:24):
Yes, it was a celebration because remember that in the
Olden goes before refrigeration. We are talking about using up
all the reserves of food, but the eggs are being
laid again. Traditionally, Easter isn't when we start having plenty
of eggs and dairy. But this is the first celebration
of that, and it follows the second of debris, which
is the first sign of green. And people think they've
(34:46):
nearly got through the food deprivation of winter. Because storage
was always a problem then in the olden gates. Well,
the big Peace days are about using up supplies before
they go rotten.
Speaker 2 (34:57):
There you go. You learn something new every day on
the CA Now Iron just of course said you were
putting the boat in the green Peace But they are
changing their rhetoric.
Speaker 8 (35:06):
Yes, and I note that we have dropped of green
Peace has dropped the term regenerative from their press releases.
They're now talking about ecological and this actually aligns with
what green Peace International is doing. And green Peace International
have just complained about the new EU the European Commission
(35:27):
Agri Food Plan, their new strategy, their vision which has
replaced the Green Deal, the farm to fork because so
many people around the world did the economics on the
farm to fork strategy for them, and the USDA was
a big one. UK had a big report saying you're
going to drop the amount of food available and you're
(35:48):
going to increase the prices and can your local people
actually afford this? And that's always seeing the same thing
in New Zealand. If you don't increase your product to
or at least maintain it, and that is what some
of these new strategies called ecological or regenerative do they
actually drop it. When you're at a highly productive system
(36:11):
such as New Zealand and most of the developed world,
then you're going to have implications for food security and
that is not good for the world.
Speaker 2 (36:17):
Hey, is this a case of never the twine shall
make Because the latest screenpiece statements say ultimately the future
of farming lies an ecological, organic, plant based agricultural practices.
We know under that regime we can't feed nine or
ten billion people, no.
Speaker 8 (36:35):
Lessonsough of that. We know that. So they're pushing out
on a limb to try and get them change. But
I think they missed the fact that there's a lot
of change already. And once we're in a state of development,
which New Zealand is mostly reached, then we can start
being very precise about where we put nutrients and water
for instance, or any of the agrichemicals, and we can
(36:58):
enhance productivity on the land we have already under in
New Zealand's case, mostly the pasture. And what we don't
want is a lot of plowing going on or cultivation
of soil, because then we start losing organic matter and
of course the copping sort of things. You know, its
seeds now they need present, they need cooking, and they're
(37:21):
less easy to preserve than some other things that are
on the hoof and waiting to be well maintaining pasture
or to be milked, for instance, Jack Weill.
Speaker 2 (37:31):
And rowth's got to go. Thanks for your time. Is
always on the country. Enjoy the rest of Shrove Tuesday.
Have a pancake on met Thank you very much, Dobi
and that wraps the country. Tomorrow Christopher Luxe and Emma
Higgins from Rabobank on the GDT auction overnight and we
might try and catch up with British farmer Gordon Rennie.
(37:56):
We'll catch back tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (38:02):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to Frent you're specialist in
John Deere construction equipment.
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie mcguy. Thanks to Brent. You're specialist in
John Dee machinery. Somebody cast to me.
Speaker 2 (00:19):
Good looking around She's a mine. Get a New Zealand.
Welcome to the Country. It's brought to you by Brent.
My name is Jamie McKay. This is Patrick Swayzee. Got
(00:39):
my movie. He's mixed up between ghost and dirty Dancing.
Tell you more about that later. The important issue of
the day or one of them. Rob Hewitt, he's the
chairman of literally everything in New Zealand agriculture. Now he's
picking a fight with Bremworth. He's a South Otago farmer.
He's also the chair of Agri zero en Z. I'm
(01:03):
going to ask him about carbon farming in his neck
of the woods because literally his beautiful little town of
Lawrence is quickly becoming enveloped by pine trees. For better
or worse? Are we going to have a chat to
Cameron Bagri, Independent Economist? Is the economic recovery on? And
what about Trump's tariffs? His month long stay of execution
(01:25):
is just about finished. The markets have reacted very poorly
on Wall Street today we'll get Cam's take on that
the tariffs and also what it might mean for New Zealand.
What Trump's actions might mean for New Zealand exchange and
interest rates which affect us all. Hunter McGregor's our guy
(01:46):
in China, as the Great Trumpster would say. Amongst other things,
they've got this Chinese animated movie. It was Oscar's Day
yesterday and Demi Moore who was in Dirty Dancing, wasn't
she No, she wasn't and Dirty Dancing. She was in
Ghost with Patrick Swaezey. She missed out on the on
the Oscar yesterday, but there's this Chinese animated movie which
(02:08):
is taking the world by storm. We're also going to
talk about the high speed rail network in China. We
could kill fit to have one of those here in
New Zealand. And Jacquiline Rowith, this is an interesting one
handcake Day. I didn't realize today was pancake Day. Some
of the Catholics out there will realize today is also
Shrove Tuesday. We're going to talk about lent giving up
(02:32):
stuff as well. All that's on the country. Michelle will
wander in here with the latest and rural news. We'll
have a look at sport for you as well. But
we're going to kick it off with the Chairman of Everything,
Rob Hewitt Play. He's a South Otago far and at
(03:01):
twenty twenty three he was named the Deloitte Top two
hundred Chairperson of the Year. No wonder because he's literally
chairing everything in this country. His name is Rob Hewitt,
current chair of Silver Fern Farms. To be fair, he's
retiring from that this year, Chair of Farmlands war Works,
Agri Zero en Z. I want to come back to
that one, Hilton Haulidge, Pioneer Energy, Fern Energy, Rewiring Art
(03:26):
as well as being a director of TNG Global. Hey
Rob Hewitt, you've got a lot on your plate. Why
are you picking a fight with Bremworth? You want to
be the chair of that entity as well? What are
you a bit like Tim Shadboll. I just want to
be chair, it doesn't matter where.
Speaker 3 (03:41):
Yeah, good idea, Jamie. It's not the first time I've
heard that line, Jomie. Look, I do quite a lot
of governance work and for some reason, these opportunities come
up and it seems to work. So I don't have
any secret source, but these opportunities come along and look
(04:02):
I wasn't looking for this one with Bremworth, but the
shareholders approached us probably after the AGM, which was late
last year, was when it first started heating up, and
it got quite a bit of attention later on, sort
of over the January period, and the whole thing's culminated
with the six month inenyear result that came out last week,
which is you know, the Shielders heard of Gutsville, so
(04:23):
they're looking around going what the hell can we do?
We have lost confidence on the board as it stands
at the moment. Yeah, so here we are.
Speaker 2 (04:32):
Well, apparently eleven percent of signed the formal requisition notice.
You reckon, you've got backing from thirty five percent of
the shareholders. The mat still doesn't work on that.
Speaker 3 (04:43):
Yeah, they've been a little bit. Yes, that's true. Eleven
and a half percent of the shareholders have signed the
requisition form, which is only four Shielders. We have spoken
to over thirty four just around thirty five percent of
the share register or the shareholders who own thirty five
percent of the shares, and we have got support for
what well we are acting on what they want to do.
(05:06):
So I can tell you right now the thirty five
percent at least of the shar register is supportive of
this direction. So the eleven and a half just sign it.
You need you need five percent of the shareholders by
volume to sign a requisition and then the board is
obligated to take it forward to a meeting. And that's
all that is. All right.
Speaker 2 (05:26):
Let's have a look at Bremworth. Admirable as it was,
was it a mistake in twenty twenty one when they
decided to produce only wool carpets.
Speaker 3 (05:36):
Look, it's a really interesting comment and the short answer
I think is possibly. But you know, first blush, I mean,
we've got to get a head under the hood and
have a look. I guess a couple of ovisations I
make Jamie, is it? You know, natural sustainable? There is
absolutely cast customers for that product around the world. We
know that at Silver fir and Farms, and quite frankly,
this is a New Zealand opportunity. Bremworth is one of
the strong brands that we need to be strong because
(05:59):
it really underput is the product that we make on
our sheep and beef farms and takes that product to market,
so we know those customers are out there. What appears
to have not happened is that costs have not well,
costs haven't been taken into account. By the look of it,
costs are significantly higher than what you would expect with
the volume of businesses being done, and nothing's been done
(06:20):
on the outside looking in to trim it. And that's
the problem. You know, the sales have diminished. To be
fair to Bremworth, there's been you know, a couple of
little instances like COVID and then the Toato flood with
cycling Gabrielle where they had significant amount of water through
the plant. Both of those sort of things, they bug
it things up for a couple of years and so
(06:40):
to give them credit, it hasn't been playing sailing. But
fundamentally the direction of travel for the business has been
downhill and the shareholders have run out of patients. And
that's why we are where.
Speaker 4 (06:51):
We are today now.
Speaker 2 (06:52):
As I said, you chair Woolworks which operates a wool
scout opposite Brimworth's plant in Napier, Is that a conflictive interest?
Speaker 3 (07:01):
Na, NA, No, it's not. I mean Warworks, well not
at the moment. And you know Warworks has a commercial
relationship with Bremworth to supply scuard Will's that's you know,
that'll that'll be noted on the conflicts register if it
does go eventuate. And I just don't have anything to
do with those negotiations anyway. And even if I did,
I'll be out of the room. I'll be in the
(07:22):
naughty boys room. But look, it's the same conversation where
I might Hilton Hallage provides logistical services for silver Feen Farms.
You know, it's listed on the interest register and and
we deal with it accordingly if it comes up, and
it usually doesn't. So if there are no conflicts at
the moment, apart from that commercial relationship, the fact that
(07:42):
we're over the road makes no difference. Really, this this,
I must stress this, This initiative with Bremworth is the
Bramworth shareholders have asked for this to happen. This is
not a warworks gig and so they're two completely separate issues.
Although it's all around wall.
Speaker 2 (08:01):
Well Bremer it's got two thousand and six hundred shareholders.
I think ACC's one of them. But is this just
a few of your rich mates getting the pip?
Speaker 3 (08:11):
Well, to be fair, we've only spoken to thirty five
percent of the share registry. So I guess they hold
a few shears. Whether they're rich or not, I don't.
I don't know, but that's not really the issue here. Look,
the shareholders have had enough. There's been ten years with performance.
If you go back and have a look at the
end your results that have been put into the company's office,
(08:33):
which they'll be there because Brnworth is a listed company
and they have to report on this sort of thing,
you'll see the direction. I think the shareholders have been
long suffering.
Speaker 2 (08:41):
Quite frankly, Rob, let me change direction on you put
on your agri zero in z hat A lot of
talk out there amongst certain fraternities and farming that we're
wasting our time being a part of the Paris Climate
Accordal or Climate Agreement. I'm sure you'll disagree with that.
Speaker 3 (08:58):
It's an interesting one. Yeah, it's it's been interesting since
Trump's come in in the States as to what people's
attitudes towards this around the world has been, and it
feels like there's been a relaxation. Look a couple of
observations i'd make you know, those discerning consumers I talked
about before, the ones that silver firm farms are trying
to reach the ones that Bremworth is trying to reach.
(09:21):
Those customers value this sort of stuff. The fact that
Trump's in power at the moment and he's apparently taken
the hammer off these environmental initiatives, it sort of masks
the observation that about forty nine percent of the voters
over there didn't vote for them, and those customers are
the ones that want this sort of stuff. So climate
and sustainability are going to continue to be important metrics
(09:43):
and absolutely for New Zealand because those consumers are the
ones that want to buy our products. So you know,
quite frankly, I couldn't care about the legislation. The government
as a regulator is the last stop. The first stop
is the customer and if they want something, you better listen.
There's are the ones that will pay the premium. That's
where it starts and finishes for me.
Speaker 2 (10:03):
Well, the market will always decide farmer behavior.
Speaker 3 (10:08):
It should, well farmers should listen to it. Yeah, that's
absolutely right, and that's part of what I'm saying here.
You know, they're still going to be a big market
for commodity feed, you know, whether it's grind to beef
or whether it's factory farm chicken or pork. You know
those consumers that eat that stuff. Quite frankly, it's price
sensitivity and they environmental sustainability would be well down the
(10:28):
list of attributes that they're looking for because I probably
can't afford the product, to be completely blunt about it,
but there are consumers that we sell to that do
want those products, are prepared to pay for it and
value those attributes that the Paris Accord are espousing. So
as a country, we'd be wise to listen to that
because they're not going away, and that's where our premiums
(10:49):
come from.
Speaker 4 (10:50):
We've really got to listen to it.
Speaker 3 (10:51):
It's actually very disruptive, Okay.
Speaker 2 (10:53):
Can I get a quick final comment from you when
you're not sharing every board known to mankind? Rob Hewitt,
You're a South farmer based near a little town called Lawrence,
of course, famous for Gabriel's Gully and the gold mining
boom of the eighteen sixties. Beautiful little town. The only
problem is you're surrounded by pine trees and getting surrounded
(11:14):
by more and more by the day. Will you be
known this beautiful little town as the carbon capital of
the country shortly?
Speaker 5 (11:23):
Well?
Speaker 3 (11:23):
Should I hope not, Jamie. I mean the community will
be gone and this is replicated. I mean you just
need to go up to Warrappa and you had the
same conversation. You know, we grow trees. Well, yeah, that's true.
I've got a bunch of trees on my place, but
they're all in gullies where the gorse was and the
ridges and the paddocks are still paddocks. And that's my
fervent hope that as farmers we get the optionality to
continue to make those choices. You know, trees in the
(11:46):
right place are a good thing. Trees everywhere is not.
And it's probably fair to say that livestock everywhere is
not either. You know, the production mentality that we had
in the seventies, Sister doesn't probably last. But you know,
those concerning consumers, they look at our own farm production
systems as well, and communities like Lawrence. They absolutely need
people in our schools for our sports club's full our
(12:06):
ambulance services, all that sort of thing.
Speaker 4 (12:09):
We need people to be here.
Speaker 3 (12:10):
Trees just don't allow that to happen.
Speaker 2 (12:12):
If they come at scale, well, Rob, if it continues
on the way it's going, you're going to need a
good Fire Brigade and Lawrence in about twenty or thirty
years time. If you don't mind me saying.
Speaker 3 (12:21):
So, yes Jesus, I hope no, I hope not. Jamie, well, hey,
good that we've got a good that we've got a
fiber gate, but that they tend to get called out
the car crashes actually more than anything else.
Speaker 2 (12:30):
Yep, okay mate, good to catch up. Thank you very
much for your time. Rob Hewett, the chairman of everything,
see you later.
Speaker 3 (12:36):
Yeah, good only Jamie, thanks very much, she led.
Speaker 2 (12:39):
Me twenty after twelve. Rob Hewitt, he is literally the
chairman of everything. The It was his title the twenty
twenty three Deloitte Top two hundred Chairperson of the Year.
But not everyone thinks that. Show us the money is
Silver Fern shareholders, Charlie few premiums. I took a bit
(13:03):
of artistic liberty with that. Text wasn't readable in its
present form. Here's another one. Silver Fern Farms and Farmlands
have lost nearly two hundred million in the last two
years between them. Rob Hewitt is the chairman of both companies.
When is he going to resign? It's a bit tough,
(13:24):
So there you go. You feedback on five Double nine. Lawrence,
by the way, especially for North Island as you may
or may not have been there. If you're driving from
Dunedin through to Queenstown or Central Otarga, you go through Lawrence.
It's a stunning town. The facade of the main streets
largely unchanged. It wasn't all knocked over and replaced by
(13:48):
horrible concrete buildings like a lot of rural New Zealand
towns were in the fifties and sixties. Of course, Gabriel's
Gullies just up the gully awebit from Lawrence. Gold was
discovered there, I think off the top of my head
in eighteen sixty one. And it's also the venue for
one of my favorite farming events of the year, and
(14:08):
that's the Century Farm and Station Awards, which will be
happening in Lawrence during May, where we recognize farms that
have been in the same family ownership for one hundred years.
A wonderful will still be doing that in one hundred
years time. Up next, Cameron Bagriy, are we on the
is the economy on the recovery? We'll get his thoughts
(14:31):
on that and Trump's causing all sorts of trouble around
the world at the moment. Will get his views on
that one and how it affects the Zellen farmers. It's
on the country. He's an independent economist. I love catching
(15:10):
up with them here on the country, Cameron Bagriy, here's
a starter for ten for your Cameron. When's the economic
recovery beginning or has it?
Speaker 5 (15:19):
Well, the economic recovery is underway and started in the
fourth quarter of twenty twenty four A sort of blink,
you might have missed it. Yeah, but recovery is are
sort of there's two stages.
Speaker 4 (15:33):
Look.
Speaker 5 (15:33):
Stage one is getting what's called economic growth. That's the
cant of forward propulsion, and we've got that at the moment.
Speaker 4 (15:40):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (15:40):
Stage two is you need to get a totality or
an aggregation of that forward propulsion before you start to
see the level of activity back up acceptable levels.
Speaker 4 (15:51):
See.
Speaker 5 (15:52):
Basically need to see six to nine months of happier
time before people out there generally start to see the
rare economic benefits that's coming around.
Speaker 4 (15:59):
The middle of twenty and twenty five.
Speaker 2 (16:01):
There are a lot of people out there at the
moment who aren't feeling the love.
Speaker 5 (16:06):
Well, it's been tough, Yeah, twenty twenty four. If you
look at the official Economic statistics GDP for CAPA that's
population adjusted GDP, you're the biggest tip we've seen since
the GFC. We can debate whether it was the biggest
tip from the GFC. You know, the unemployment rate at
five point one percent, there's nowhere near the levels we
got during the GFC. You think non point lines are
(16:28):
nowhere near obviously got within the GFC. But it's face
for you. It's been pretty tough times. But maybe people
have just got used to the good times or some
of those that giddy times we saw in twenty twenty
one and twenty twenty two, and a lot of I
think what we're seeing over twenty and twenty four was
a little bit of coming back down to earth. We've
we've let the air out of the bag side of
(16:49):
speak in normaloty beacons.
Speaker 2 (16:51):
Well, interest rates fall as far as we hoped and expected.
Speaker 5 (16:57):
Well, they've already come down a reasonably long way. And
the Reserve bankers out there saying, you know, they think
they'll be cutting their official carest right another two to
three twenty five basis point cuts, taking the OCEID around
three percent by the end of the year. What does
that mean in reality for borrows? We're now starting to
see those fixed mortgage rates touched down below five percent,
(17:18):
you know, a high four number. Do I think we're
going to see interest rates back with a three or
a two in front of the answer is no. But
your interest rates have come down a long way from
those sort of six and a half percent levels that
we were seeing twelve months ago.
Speaker 2 (17:30):
So if you were coming off a fixed rate right
at the moment for your farm, or your house, or
your business, would you be tempted to go in and
fix again? Now take some of those, for instance, in
housing sub five percent rates.
Speaker 5 (17:44):
Yeah. Well, so if I have a look at what
I'm targeting at the moment, within my residential properties, all
my investments sort of stuff, I try to get an
average rate of around five.
Speaker 4 (17:56):
Yeah. If I can get something sub.
Speaker 5 (17:59):
Five, yeah, whether it be all one area, a two year,
you know, I'm going to be reasonably happy with that.
Speaker 4 (18:04):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (18:05):
I don't think we going back to those sort of
days that we're going to see mortgage interest rates with
the two or three percent hand on the front of it.
Speaker 4 (18:11):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (18:12):
The new normal is perhaps, Yeah, the old normal Jamie
the sort of stuff that we saw pre.
Speaker 4 (18:18):
Pre COVID as opposed to post COVID.
Speaker 5 (18:20):
The problem is a whole lot of people, I guess,
might have consisted their borrowing expectations of what we saw
was some pretty remarkable boring experiences in that twenty twenty
tw twenty one period.
Speaker 2 (18:30):
See Cameron. I've been around long enough I can remember
my golden rule back in the nineties was that if
it was under seven percent, I was locking it in.
So it's just about expectation, isn't it.
Speaker 4 (18:42):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (18:42):
And one of the reasons that, yeah, the expectations are
lower now than what we saw to it are twenty
to thirty years there. That because what's called the neutral
official cash rate is lower, and the neutral official cash
rated here the reserve events neither got the foot on
an accelerator or the break. You think of it as
that sort of holiday he used to period where if
you and all the Reserve bank governors up there taking
(19:03):
the six months abad it call the tailot because he's
not doing too much. That number went from about five
and a half percent down to two percent, so dragged
actual mortgage rates down with it. That number is now
on the rising in it looks like it's up around
sort of three percent. You have the neutral official cashtrate
that's when the Reserve Bank's on holiday is around three percent.
Then you sort of neutral boring rate. There's going to
(19:24):
be somewhere around five percent for a residential wants.
Speaker 2 (19:28):
Now the trumpet tariffs, the one month pause on tariffs
on Mexico and Canada is about to end. How do
you see this playing out?
Speaker 5 (19:39):
Well, we're at risk at the moment globally of a
full blown trade war. Now where this goes we don't know.
But if you look at what the OECD, what the
imere for everybody's basically saying tariffs or a trade war
is going to be bad for global growth and it's
going to be bad for inflation. What we're seeing is
that your tariffs or the three of teriffs have now
(19:59):
been increased. We're used as a weapon. You had to
get what countries want. And if you go back, there's
a big overarching theme here. And the big theme is
that our rules based trading system that we've used to
for thirty years, where they played nice and abided by
the rules, is now being you see it by countries
exercise and power and this is not just a miracle
with tariffs. This is China Taiwan, this is Ukraine versus Russia,
(20:22):
this is the Middle East, and this is the new normal.
You know, the rules based system. There's now a power
based system, and a power based system favors the big
over before.
Speaker 2 (20:32):
Is the world being run by Trump? She and putin.
Speaker 4 (20:34):
Now, oh well, interesting to see that.
Speaker 5 (20:38):
Yeah, Europe stepped up in the past sort of forty
eight hours as well in regard to their commitment to Ukraine.
So yeah, we're starting to see a little bit of
response from the other side. Because the only way to
stand up to a bully, you stand up for them.
Speaker 2 (20:52):
Let's just stick with that US theme, Cameron bagri And
depends on economists. I see that we're trading at about
fifty six US cents at the moment. Where do you
see that going.
Speaker 5 (21:03):
Here or that currency popping down from the sixty one
to sixty two down into the fifty fifty seven cents
owners they provide a little bit of cream on top
for exporters. We've seen in New Zealand dollar returns for
red meat and dairy you've obviously popped an awful lot high.
You starting to see a lot more confidence come across
the rural sector and the hope is that they'll open
the cheap book in the back half of two thousand
(21:24):
and twenty five. My person review is that I think
the New Zealand dollar is going to have another nudge
at fifty five cents. And one of the reasons I
think we're going to have another nudge at fifty five
cents is that I think the United States has got
an inflation problem. And if they've got an inflation problem,
then I think the US fed a Reserve is not
going to be cutting rates, and as the reason chance,
they're going to be hiking rates in the exit of
sixty five months. So what's the space.
Speaker 2 (21:44):
Yeah, I think a lot of farmers out there listening
could probably live with an exchange rate of you as
fifty five cents. Cameron Bagrie, always enjoy your good common
sense here on the country. Thanks for your.
Speaker 5 (21:55):
Time, all the best, I thinks.
Speaker 2 (21:58):
And as twenty eight away from a one farmer who's
listening and is Gordon Rennie. He's in New Zealand for
six weeks. Hello Gordon, thanks for listening, and he says,
I'm a British farmer and a Nuffield Scholar. He goes
on to write UK consumers want one thing, low prices
for all food. Look at the rise of Audi, the
(22:20):
German discounts store. Net zero is nowhere in the minds
of the vast majority of consumers, and a cost of
living crisis. That is, as I said from Gordon Rennie,
British farmer in the country at the moment. Interesting Maria
feedback after the break Michelle Scott Rural News. We've got
(22:40):
some good news on the red meat front from the
Meat Industry Association before the end of the hour. Cameron,
not Cameron Bagriy. We've just had him what's his name,
Hunter McGregor. Now Hunter's talking movies as well. This is
these songs are from Dirty Dancing. We thought Demi was
(23:01):
in it. I didn't look. I better get it out
of the road now, Michelle, you and I were having
a discussion on the last break in the eighties, right, Yes,
it was like a rugged rugby player. That's my memory
of myself. But look, I watched Rambo and Arnie Schwarzenegger.
I never really did ghost and dirty dancing and that
(23:21):
sort of stuff, so that's why I got confused with
the soundtracks.
Speaker 6 (23:26):
It's no dates at this and James Theater and Gore
for you.
Speaker 2 (23:29):
Uh well, the trouble with the Saint James Theater and
Gore and it's great now they do a great job.
They get now, they get movies as soon as they're
released like most places do. But back in the day,
not quite silent movies, Michelle. But back in the day
you literally had to wait about three months till a
movie sort of arrived in smaller, rural New Zealand. You
(23:53):
tell the young people of today that I'll tell you
what they won't believe you. Rural news next. Okay, welcome
back to the country. Very shortly the good news from
the Meat Industry Association. But here at the Country, we
want to send you to the New Zealand Horticulture Conference.
(24:17):
It's happening in Wellington. Great city to visit, despite some
of the politicians who are running it in August. Now
we could be sending you in a friend for two
days of insights, networking and industry innovation. So you know,
if you're in the horticulture industry, this is for you.
So head to the Country dot co dot in z
(24:39):
to be and to win. Tickets are for two to
the two day conference the Gala dinner Bus. We're going
to throw in flights and accommodation from anywhere in New Zealand.
It's all happening at the Horticulture New Zealand Conference. Remember
head to the Country dot co dot in z to
be in to win those tickets. Here's the latest and
(24:59):
Rus news.
Speaker 1 (25:01):
The country's world news with Culp Cadet, New Zealand's leading
right on lawn Bower brand. Visit steel Ford dot co
dot NZB for your local stockist.
Speaker 6 (25:11):
There has been a strong start to the year for
red meat exports. According to the latest figures from the
Meat Industry Association, export values in January increase twenty eight
percent year on year to nine hundred and twenty seven million.
The USA was the largest market for the month of January,
counting at for two hundred and seventy seven million in exports,
with an increase in exports of sixty four percent year
(25:33):
on year. The value of sheep meat exports rose by
twenty two percent. Beef exports rose by six percent in
volume and thirty five percent in value to four hundred
and nine million. The fifth quarter exports increased to twenty
two percent and you can find more rural news at
the Country dot co dot MZ.
Speaker 1 (25:50):
Sport with AFCO visit them online at a fco dot
co dot nz.
Speaker 2 (25:55):
Ah second Bash for al Alash, there's a poet in
our sport department. At the New Zealand Squash Open in
christ Church, the nineteen year old has been given a
wild card into the main drawer. After losing her first
round match in four games on debut at Taronga in
twenty twenty three. Lash says she's better poised to perform
(26:18):
this time around and Hoskins. Setutu has been handed a
three week ban, which can reduce two if he's a
good boy and does a stint a tackle score for
a dangerous tackle. And the Blues Super Rugby went over
the Hurricanes in Wellington. The number eight was shown the
red card for shoulder to head contact on loose Ford
Peter Larkeye. Sotutu's clean disciplinary record meant the Foul Play
(26:41):
Review Committee half the original six week sanction to three.
That's sports news for you. Remember if you want to
go to the Horticulture New Zealand Annual Conference in Wellington
in August, head to the Country dot co dot nz
to win. We're going to fly you there, feed and water.
You're going to learn a whole lot while you're there.
(27:02):
Up next, Hunter McGregor in China. So you've heard from
Cameron Bagory about the state of the New Zealand economy.
Let's have a look at the state of the economy
of our largest trading partner, China. Our guy over there
is Hunter McGregor, based out of Shanghai, selling venison and
red meat to the Chinese Hunter every time I talk
(27:25):
to you, you're a bit down on the mouth about
the Chinese economy. Are there any green shoots?
Speaker 7 (27:31):
Oh, good afternoon, Jamie. Well, yea Sunday we had a
pretty plenty of green shoots here. We had a very
warm day. It was twenty nine degrees, which is the
warmest day and one hundred and one hundred and fifty
years of early March. And yes, everyone was out and
about and F and B was rocking along. So yeah,
(27:53):
there was a green shoots that day. And then Monday
we got up to high of a nine degrees, so
it all came crashing back down.
Speaker 2 (28:00):
Twenty eight degrees basically at the end of your want
is pretty warm.
Speaker 7 (28:05):
Yeah, it was. It was great. It was really good
for a Sunday. You're very warm, but it's not normal.
And there's snow in north of China, and there's snow
in Hung Joe just an hour or so or a
couple of hours drive and land, so you know, it's
sort of the unsettled weather pattern we get this time
of year, and we're back to some colder weather for
(28:26):
the rest of the week.
Speaker 2 (28:27):
Talk to me about the high speed rail network in China.
I've been lucky enough to have ridden on a couple
of your bullet trains. They go flat out. In fact,
I think Shanghai to Beijing is almost as quick by
train as it is by plane. Yeah.
Speaker 7 (28:43):
No, the infrastructure and the high speed trains in China
is fantastic. You know, they've built over the last few
years up to about forty five thousand kilometers of high
speed rail networks. They're planning on building another twenty five
thousand more. And the trains, you know, for a high
speed train in China, they're going to run between sort
of three hundred and three hundred, two hundred and three
(29:05):
hundred and eighty kilometers an hour. They usually run around
about sort of three hundred to three hundred and fifty
so between Shanghai and Beijing it's about four and a
half hours from door to door if if it's direct.
There's obviously Hoba trains that stop along the way, and
that's about the length of New Zealand at that distance.
(29:26):
What they're doing at the moment is they're developing new
trains which will run These trains designed to run about
three hundred to three hundred and fifty k's. The new
ones will designed to run four hundred to four hundred
and fifty k's on the same track, so that will
just about take it as fast as an aeroplane between
between most cities, in some cases faster because by the
(29:48):
time you fluff around at the airport and planes are
never on time in China, well anywhere. It was a
bit like New Zealand. So yeah, that's quite exciting and
it's a new development, and yeah they're pushing boundaries of
technology and R and D.
Speaker 4 (30:02):
So which is great.
Speaker 2 (30:02):
Yesterday, New Zealand at time was Oscar's Day. For my sins,
I've watched two movies in the last two nights, Bridget
Jones's Diary or Mad About the Boy, whatever it is.
It was a five or six at best. And the
other one is the Substance with Demi Moore, who everyone
expected to win an Oscar. She didn't. It was sci
fi rubbish if you ask me. But you want to
(30:23):
talk about a Chinese movie that's breaking box office records.
Speaker 7 (30:28):
Well, there's a Chinese animated movie called Jin r II.
It just came out in the twenty ninth of January
and it's sold one point nine billion US dollars and
ticket sales already. It's been a phenomenon.
Speaker 4 (30:42):
It's massive.
Speaker 7 (30:43):
It's a Chinese animated fantasy movie. It's for kids and
for adults, and it's just massive. And it's been only
out for a month, but it's now the I think
the seventh grossing highest film ever. It's the highest grossing
ever animated film. It will probably go higher in the
(31:05):
list because this is starting to be launched around the
world in theaters. It's a it's a Chinese movie, fully
developed in China, and it's it's massive. So you know,
I haven't seen it yet because they don't have English
subtitles in the theaters here, but I'll probably watch it
on a streaming service at some point in the future.
Speaker 2 (31:24):
Oh, come on, Hunter, you've been over there long enough
to know the language inside out. Man up and do it.
Talking about manning up, we all need to man up.
On Friday, apparently it's International Woman's Day.
Speaker 4 (31:35):
Yeah.
Speaker 7 (31:36):
Yeah, the third of the eighth of March is International
Woman's Day. So I'm sure you've got a big event
already planned for for for your daily beloved. But we've
actually got Kiwi Drinks this this Friday, because every first
Friday of the month here in Shanghai, Kiwis get together
(31:57):
and we raise a bit of money for charity and
have a few few cold bears. There's no Makaiser at
the moment up here, be working on that. But yeah,
so as anyone's passing through Shanghai the first Friday, come
along to Kiwi Drinks. It's open to anyone.
Speaker 2 (32:13):
Hey, A final question for you off the script. Are
the Chinese talking about Donald Trump?
Speaker 7 (32:19):
Yeah, a little bit. They're not really too worried about
what's going on, you know, with the tariffs coming in
and all that sort of stuff. It's all been predicted,
so you know that, the like everybody else, are watching
with interest, but there's not much what anyone can do,
so they're just seeing how things play out.
Speaker 2 (32:35):
Hey, Hunter McGregor, always appreciate your time here on the
Country from Shanghai.
Speaker 7 (32:39):
Cheers, thanks mate.
Speaker 2 (32:42):
That is Hunter McGregor, obviously going to take a break.
Jaqueline roll with on Pancake Day and the history behind it.
Next Fortnightly on our website The Country dot co dot nz,
doctor Jaquelin Rowath writes an excellent column today's putting the
boat into green Peas. Love it when that happens. Jacqueline,
(33:04):
my word's not yours. My word's not yours, but I
always learn something when I check to you. Today is
Pancake Day, also known as Shrove Tuesday exactly.
Speaker 8 (33:17):
So let us celebrate the farmers of the world, because
this is the ceremony around the world that allows the
pancakes to be made. And I've done a calculation of it.
It's about four dollars to make ten to fourteen pancakes.
And so we're going to celebrate the egg producers, thank
you for not getting any more avian flu. We celebrate
(33:39):
the bread that the wheat producers, and we certainly celebrate
the dairy cow for the milk and butter. And let's
say we add mints because we could have a savory pancake.
Then we can add thank yous to the beef and
sheep farmers, or indeed the bacon farmers, the producers of
pork products, because we are grateful for all that they
do for us, aren't we? Jack.
Speaker 2 (34:00):
So this relates back to feasting the day before Lent
starts and Catholics, and I was raised to Catholic, and
I remember with great shock and or having to go
without lollies. I mean, what a small price to pay
during Lent for six weeks. I think it was up
until Easter. So tomorrow's ash Wednesday, Lent begins for the Catholics.
(34:21):
And this traditionally was a feast day.
Speaker 8 (34:24):
Yes, it was a celebration because remember that in the
Olden goes before refrigeration. We are talking about using up
all the reserves of food, but the eggs are being
laid again. Traditionally, Easter isn't when we start having plenty
of eggs and dairy. But this is the first celebration
of that, and it follows the second of debris, which
is the first sign of green. And people think they've
(34:46):
nearly got through the food deprivation of winter. Because storage
was always a problem then in the olden gates. Well,
the big Peace days are about using up supplies before
they go rotten.
Speaker 2 (34:57):
There you go. You learn something new every day on
the CA Now Iron just of course said you were
putting the boat in the green Peace But they are
changing their rhetoric.
Speaker 8 (35:06):
Yes, and I note that we have dropped of green
Peace has dropped the term regenerative from their press releases.
They're now talking about ecological and this actually aligns with
what green Peace International is doing. And green Peace International
have just complained about the new EU the European Commission
(35:27):
Agri Food Plan, their new strategy, their vision which has
replaced the Green Deal, the farm to fork because so
many people around the world did the economics on the
farm to fork strategy for them, and the USDA was
a big one. UK had a big report saying you're
going to drop the amount of food available and you're
(35:48):
going to increase the prices and can your local people
actually afford this? And that's always seeing the same thing
in New Zealand. If you don't increase your product to
or at least maintain it, and that is what some
of these new strategies called ecological or regenerative do they
actually drop it. When you're at a highly productive system
(36:11):
such as New Zealand and most of the developed world,
then you're going to have implications for food security and
that is not good for the world.
Speaker 2 (36:17):
Hey, is this a case of never the twine shall
make Because the latest screenpiece statements say ultimately the future
of farming lies an ecological, organic, plant based agricultural practices.
We know under that regime we can't feed nine or
ten billion people, no.
Speaker 8 (36:35):
Lessonsough of that. We know that. So they're pushing out
on a limb to try and get them change. But
I think they missed the fact that there's a lot
of change already. And once we're in a state of development,
which New Zealand is mostly reached, then we can start
being very precise about where we put nutrients and water
for instance, or any of the agrichemicals, and we can
(36:58):
enhance productivity on the land we have already under in
New Zealand's case, mostly the pasture. And what we don't
want is a lot of plowing going on or cultivation
of soil, because then we start losing organic matter and
of course the copping sort of things. You know, its
seeds now they need present, they need cooking, and they're
(37:21):
less easy to preserve than some other things that are
on the hoof and waiting to be well maintaining pasture
or to be milked, for instance, Jack Weill.
Speaker 2 (37:31):
And rowth's got to go. Thanks for your time. Is
always on the country. Enjoy the rest of Shrove Tuesday.
Have a pancake on met Thank you very much, Dobi
and that wraps the country. Tomorrow Christopher Luxe and Emma
Higgins from Rabobank on the GDT auction overnight and we
might try and catch up with British farmer Gordon Rennie.
(37:56):
We'll catch back tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (38:02):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to Frent you're specialist in
John Deere construction equipment.
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