October 7, 2024 • 38 mins
Jamie Mackay talks to Cameron Bagrie, John McOviney, Karen Morrish, Vanessa Winning, and Bryce McKenzie.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's The Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to Brent. You're specialist in
John Dee Machinery.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
Gay New Zealand and welcome to the Country. I'm Jamie McKay.
Tomorrow two pm the official cash rape will be reviewed.
Will he go twenty five or fifty basis points, Adrian
or I'm talking about well? Ask our expert independent economist
Cameron Bagri. He's also on the capital gains tax bandwagon.
(00:48):
We'll chat to him. Hey. One of the big stories,
in fact, I think it's leading the Herald website right
at the moment, is the sighting of the Maracopa fugitive
Tom and his three children. As fate would have it,
it was on the farm of one of the guys
we chat to hear on the Country, John mcavinnie. When
(01:08):
he's not a sheep and beef farmer, he's the chief
executive of Steelfort. Now he's got a fugitive running around
in the bush at the top of his farm. We'll
get that story for you. Karen Morrish is the chief
executive of Apple and Pears n Z. Very good prospects apparently,
or our Apple and Pear growers this season. They deserve it.
(01:28):
They've had a few tough ones and one of the
reasons there's good prospects is that there's good prospects we
might get some water back in Hawks Bay, Central Hawks Bay.
Is the Rua Tani far dam now back on the
table after the fast tracking legislation from the government. And
how about this one. The co founder of Groundswell, the
Ginger Group, the protest Group, Bryce Mackenzie, instead of helping
(01:52):
out on the West Otago farm where I've been underwater,
he's been in Sri Lanka for the Senior World Cup
in or cricket tournament, the mind Bibles. I don't know
who was running the farmer in his absence, probably the lads.
But we'll also catch up with him see what ground
Swells up to. They've got a banking inquiry that they're
getting their teeth into and I'm very disappointed. And to
(02:13):
hear animal activists arounding flood affected farmers in the Deep South.
All that to come before the end of the hour.
Cameron bagriy to kick it off tomorrow afternoon two pm.
Will the Reserve Bank Governor Adrian org twenty five points
(02:35):
or fifty basis points. When it comes to dropping the
official cash rate. Let's ask an expert in the field,
independent economists, Cameron Bagriy, what are you going for?
Speaker 3 (02:46):
It doesn't really matter whether they go twenty five or fifty.
You know that the broad theme here is that illustrates
to hitting lower. It's just the speed by which we
get down towards an OCO somewhere between three to four
percent of them. The endgame, you know, what they do
on the day is really in material. The bigger picture
here is it the next twelve to eighty months, the
(03:06):
OCA is going to be an awful lot lower than
where it is today.
Speaker 2 (03:09):
Yeah, but wouldn't it kickstart the economy If he went
fifty tomorrow.
Speaker 3 (03:14):
That would help with the with the margin. But it's
not just what you do with the official care straight
on the day, Jamie. That's what you signal going forward,
you know. So if they went fifty basis ports and
didn't see the signal too much down the track, you
could see interest rates back off and New Zealand dollar
have a prefers reaction. Conversely, if you went twenty five
(03:36):
and if you went real dubblish, if you're going to
keep on going or maybe you're going to be a
little bit more aggressive. Then you could actually see interstrates
fall further under that scenario. So what you do on
the day is one thing, but what you signal about
the next twelve months is another.
Speaker 2 (03:50):
So is it a Donedale. Let's say he only went
twenty five tomorrow, he would then go fifty in late November.
Speaker 3 (03:57):
Yeah, well that's probably the scenario odds lean towards. And
why would you wait till November? Because you get the
benefit of that Q three inflation rate and we know
inflation is heading down, assist the speed by which we're
on track to get down towards two percent, and if
we get a softer read, well you back it up
with probably a fifty basis points move. That inflation number
(04:20):
comes through and it's an awkward surprise. I Inflation is
not coming down as fast as what we think because
you've got the things such as local authority rates and
energy prices, et cetera, et cetera. So there's still some
inflation sticking points. But my view, you want a little
bit of what's called the proof in the pudding. You
want that inflation number to confirm whether you're on track
(04:41):
towards two percent. We think that we believe that. But finally,
but you do need a little bit of that hard
evidence in regard to inflation itself.
Speaker 2 (04:49):
What's the neutral number? I see ASP for instance of
quoting three point two five percent.
Speaker 3 (04:56):
Yeah, Well, that neutral oci whether it's sad events and
either got the foot accelerator or the break where we
think the OCA is going to go to the re
is their bank is saying three asps around three and
a quarter. You've got Westpac in myself a little bit
higher around three and a half to four. The good
news is that doesn't matter whether you're at three three
(05:17):
point twenty five, three and a half to four, that's
still have a lot lower than five twenty five. So
there's agreement rates are going to head down towards that
sort his ore, But it's a zart. Yeah, the neutral
rate is not a precise number.
Speaker 2 (05:29):
Are banks being too tough by stress testing mortgages at
nine percent?
Speaker 4 (05:35):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (05:35):
I think I'd say that at the moment. So what
we tend to see is that those stress test rates
do tend to move a little bit in line with
excell interest rates when boning rates moved up. Of course,
the stress test rates moved up as physical borring rates
move down, and they're starting to move down. I'd expect
in six months time those stress rates will start to
(05:57):
look for a little bit as well, emphasis on a
little bit.
Speaker 2 (06:01):
You mentioned the New Zealand dollar in the exchange rate.
I think it's what about sixty one sixty two at
the moment, it's fallen away, and obviously what happens tomorrow
will have an effect on the exchange rate.
Speaker 3 (06:13):
Yeah. Well, but I guess if you look at the
New Zealand dollar was heading up. Why was the New
Zealand dollar heading up? Because the US Federal Reserve such
interest rates. What we saw on Friday night last week,
Jamie was an absolute stonker of an employment report out
of America. They add at about two hundred and forty
four thousand jobs in a month. The American unemployment rate
(06:35):
is back down at four point one percent. All of
a sudden, people are starting to say, yes, well, how
much could the US fed a Reserve have to roove
rates in the next twelve months because it looks like
that economy is still looking pretty robust. Robust US economy
that signals have less need for interest rates to come
down that signals a stronger US dollar, US dollar goes
(06:56):
up or the New Zealand dollar US dollar wings have
been clipped a little in the past week, and it's
got little to do with the New Zealand side of
the equation, a lot to do with the United States.
Speaker 2 (07:05):
What did you make of the chief executive of your
old bank an Z You used to be the chief
economist there, Antonia Watson, now the chief executive, coming out
and making a bit of a public play around a
capital gains tax.
Speaker 3 (07:18):
I'm in agreement with it. So it's the International Monetary Fund,
so Organization for Economic Corroberating and Development. That's the OESED.
I think you know, most economists, myself included, would agree
that we do need a capital gains tax raisine in
some shape or form. The issue is then he design
(07:39):
it so you make it as efficient as possible. I
you don't create a whole lot of perverse incentives. But
at the bottom line, gaming is that in New Zealand
is going to need more money over the next ten
years to fund the likes of infrastructure, to fund the
likes of healthcare. And if we accept the basic proposition
that the government's going to need more money and mentuage
(07:59):
local priorities as well. The next question is who's going
to pay? And I suspect that's when the debate turns
into debate about well, who's actually got all the money?
And that's you start talking about Wealth Pact as capital
gains tax, those sort of things. You know, I'm not
a fan of a wealth tax. I am a saying
I have a capital gains tax. I think that's a
(08:19):
common sense solution. It's just a question of time, James,
before we get a decent one actually here in New Zealand.
And good an Antonia Watson for being brave enough to
put it on the table.
Speaker 2 (08:29):
Okay, so you're going twenty five tomorrow and fifty basis
points on November the twenty seventh. We'll see how good
you are. Cameron Bagrie, thanks for your time on the Country.
You always appreciate it. What the best, dammy, thank you, Cameron.
Sixteen after twelve you're with the Country, brought to you
by Brent. Yesterday on the show, we had Blair Blizzard MacLean,
(08:49):
a Vita culture guy out of Blenham on the show
and he very generously came up with some fun packs
from Ripara Springs, great Winery, Blenham based, and we had
some fun packs to give to farmers who have been
hammered by the weather. And to be honest, they're all
(09:13):
drawn out of the hat out of Auckland. But I
did have one stipulation that Simon Davies of Milton, Hello, Simon,
if you're listening in South Otago, He's lost lots of
his farm to slip, so we're get sending you some Simon.
The rest of you came out of the hat and
the winners were as follows. Not surprisingly we had a
lot of entries from the bottom of the country because
(09:34):
they've been the worst effected. So Grant Mackenzie and Isler Bank,
Lisa Thompson and Fong Ray, Rachelle Faulkner and Tapanui, Tom
Hunter and Wyndham. I think I used to play rugby
against Tom. I didn't pick him. No nepotism of favoritism.
There world done. Tom and Tracy Ryan in Danaverk who
I think is the local posting. So you people are
(09:56):
all going to get a fun pack from Rapara Springs.
Thank you, Blair, Blizzard MacLean and the team from Fruit
Fed supplies for making that possible. Cheers some people up.
It's been a bit of a bugger of a spring,
hasn't it? Anyhow? Exciting times? I think at Waititomo where
(10:18):
yesterday I think it was Friday night or was it Saturday?
The grandson of John mcavinie, irregular here on the Country
spotted Tom Phillips, the fugitive, the Maricopa Fugitive and his
three kids. Go and have a look at the videos
on the Herald website. She's a bit freaky, a bit creepy,
to be perfectly honest. Are we going to talk to
(10:40):
John next before the end of the hour? Karen Morrish,
chief executive of Apples and Pears, n Z Vanessa winning
on some more dams. You can't have too many dams.
And Bryce mackenzie, what was the boss of ground Swell
or the co founder doing in Sri Lanka? I thought
he should be here fighting for farmers. We'll ask him
before the end of the hour. Well, our next guest
(11:13):
on the Country, John mcavinie, sent me a video just
before the end of yesterday's show. I didn't get time
to deal with it. I wished I had because I
would have had an exclusive John mcavinie. In the intervening
day or less than a day, you have been literally
a media star. You've sold yourself to everybody. I'll be
battling the Woman's Weekly just to get you on this show.
Speaker 5 (11:36):
Well, Jamie, I've never hit so many calls from media
in my life. I've had TV in z I've had
news Talk zed B and I've had Radio New Zealand
and you know it's yeah, it's quite unusual. I never
hit so much prominence in my life.
Speaker 2 (11:54):
Well, John, I feel a bit like a jelted bride.
You're a regular here on the country. I thought you
would would have chatted to me first. I realized the
time frames around it. Now. The reason you are in
the media, of course because on your w Timo Sheep
and Beef Farm, your grandson out pig hunting, spotted Tom
Phillips the Future are from Maracopa and there's three kids.
Speaker 5 (12:15):
Yeah, well that's exactly right. They were. They're out there
docking this week, all week docking. I've got two grandkids
and two of their mates out there and that's what
they're doing this week, and that's the reason they're there.
But they went out for a hunt on Thursday night
and it was right up by the trek. There's a
trig station up there and you can see Mark Copa
(12:35):
from that area. And he rang me and he said, ah,
he said, there's a guy here with a great, big
beard and there's three kids. He said, wasn't there somebody
went missing?
Speaker 3 (12:45):
And I said no.
Speaker 5 (12:46):
I immediately recalled Tom Phillips and I said it'll be
him right, And of course you know what happens. Of course,
these kids, you know, they well they're not kids, they're
sort of young adults now. They immediately pull out their
phone as you and I, Jamie, would you know, we'd
ring one one one or whatever. But they immediately video
these guys and you've seen those videos, and pretty pretty defining,
(13:08):
isn't it.
Speaker 2 (13:08):
Well, i'd bear way, but wary video and Tom Phillips
is carrying a gun.
Speaker 5 (13:13):
Yeah, exactly. So they were a bit circumspect about that.
So he rang me and said what should I do?
And I said, well, ring one one one, which he did,
and he ran Brent, the far manager, and he knows
one of the police because as they've been around on
varying occasions over the last two or three years. So
he rang that guy and they unfortunately, you know, it
(13:34):
was getting towards the end of the day. It was
about seven o'clock when he rang me, and of course
by the time the police got out there the following morning,
they were well gone. But they did. You know, Andre,
my grandson, he talked to one of the kids and
you know, had not a conversation but a very short conversation.
(13:54):
So he had good presence of mine to get a
video in those videos, as I say, a pretty defining,
aren't they.
Speaker 2 (14:03):
Well, absolutely, and the video shows Tom Phillips clearly walking
away and military precision, almost whistling at the kids. Come on,
hurry up. You don't know what sort of duress they're under. Oh,
it's a bit freaky. He could have been living on
your farm for years.
Speaker 5 (14:19):
Well, it's very possible, but there's a lot of bushes there,
and of course it carries on what will pass our place.
You know, there's a big, big area there. I don't
know for three four thousand eight years there that he
could have been hiding in. But you know, looking after
those kids, you know, all the time like that, he
must be getting some help. And you know, I'm not
sure where that comes from, but it's pretty hard to
(14:41):
live off the bush, especially with one of those children.
At one stage, I think they were only about three
and a half six and a half now, so they've
you know, it's nearly three years since they've had any
major sightings of them.
Speaker 2 (14:53):
Oh well, it'll make docking a bit more exciting. On
the sheep and beef farm, how's it going.
Speaker 5 (15:00):
Well, they got they got half a day in yesterday
and I talked to Brent this morning. They did eight
hundreds this morning. So I'm on the way over there
now and we're chief sou and I chief cook and
bottle washers. So we'll be feeding these kids and they'll
be pretty angry at what imagine. And so we're going
over there to sort of just give a hand and
(15:21):
and so I know, a lot more stuff or you know,
at five o'clock tonight when they finish.
Speaker 2 (15:26):
What sort of season are you having?
Speaker 5 (15:29):
It's indifferent. You know, we've had a feever bit of rain,
but it hasn't been that cold. You know, I've talked
to Brandon. You know, we we use giving Derek Daniels
to plug way rams and you know they are tough,
these sheep. You know, they drop them in the rain
and the and the mud and whatever, and they seem
to get up and walk away, and you know so
(15:51):
but Brent said, we've had a pretty you know, pretty
good survival, right so hopefully it'll turn into you know,
you know, as much as we got last year, which
was close to tend and lands.
Speaker 2 (16:00):
Okay, John, when you're not farming or fighting crime on
your on your sheet and beef farm, you're running steel. Thought,
how's the retail scene going in New Zealand at the moment?
I mean, this is your prime time selling season for lawnmowers.
Is it too weak to get a lawnmower out?
Speaker 5 (16:18):
Well, there's certain places in the country that are going okay,
but you know, if you had to describe it, you'd
call it sticky. It hasn't fired properly as yet. But
there's still plenty of time, you know, sort of October, November, December.
You know, we've had plenty of we've got plenty of
moisture in the ground and there's plenty of grass around.
(16:38):
It's just a matter of getting onto it. But you know,
I'm going to know a bit more later this week,
but I would say that, you know, it's pretty bullish
about it. He thinks that there's been a good survival rate,
and you know, if we get anything like half good
between now and the end of October November, we should
we should should go okay, because it's looking a lot
better now, you know, for both the farming and if
(17:03):
these interest rates come down next week and maybe next month,
it'll give a bit more enthusiasm into the economy.
Speaker 2 (17:12):
Well, John, you don't even have to wait for next week.
I'll come down tomorrow. The question is whether it'll be
twenty five or fifty basis points. It's certainly going to
kickstart retail, especially as we head into Christmas, and goodness
knows we needed. I think the cure has been far
worse than the disease from the good doctor Adrian.
Speaker 5 (17:29):
Or These guys are doing a good job, I think,
you know, I mean, they might be not ticking every
box for everybody, but generally, you know, they're a long
way head of who's evident in the second place, aren't
they right.
Speaker 2 (17:41):
We'll let you go. Good luck finding Tom Phillips.
Speaker 5 (17:44):
Okay, thank Jamie. Nice to talk kids.
Speaker 2 (17:48):
John mcaveny from steel Fort. I'd be a bit freaked
out if Tom Phillips was running around my place. Anyhow,
there's plenty of bush up there, apparently interesting already some
of your feedback at text numbers five, double nine. Tom's
my neighbor. This is Tom Hunter, one of the winners.
I guess it strinks at his place this week. Well,
(18:09):
as long as the Courier, as long as Blizzard gets
it to you before Friday, good luck. I went through
and read some of the texts after I got sent
the list of winners yesterday afternoon, and apparently Tom's done
fifty lammings. I think he deserves a fun pack for
hanging in for fifty of them. Jamie, don't get Cameron
baggery back. Capital gains tax is crap. Now here's a
(18:36):
good one. Next time you're talking to the PM, this
is me, which will be tomorrow morning at quarter to eight,
about the Dunedin hospital, ask him why ACC is not
contributing some of the forty seven billion they're currently sitting on.
That's probably a fair question. It would be a good
thing for ACC to invest in fund, wouldn't you It
would save them some money. Good point. I'll ask him
(18:57):
that one on your behalf up. Next we're heading to
hawks Bay, Apple and Pears. The chief executive is Karen Morrish.
Are they in for a good season? We'll ask her next.
Speaker 4 (19:13):
Talk.
Speaker 2 (19:14):
Streets sound well, the Deep South is a bit of
a rice paddy at the moment. Other parts of the
country are on the lookout for a bit of moisture.
The fruit bowl of New Zealand is Hawks Bay. There
we find the chief executive of Apple and Pears n
Z Karen Morrish. And Karen, I know you're having a
very good season, but as always in October and Hawks Bay,
(19:36):
you're on the lookout for a bit of rain. Sea
you don't have to turn the irrigators on. Is that right?
Speaker 6 (19:41):
That would be very good. Yeah, as you say, we're
certainly starting going into the season very well, but a
bit of rain, excuse me, is always positive.
Speaker 2 (19:51):
Hawk's Bay will be full of blossoms at the moment.
Speaker 6 (19:54):
Yeah, it's beautiful actually as you drive around and you
can certainly see we've had a good start to the season.
Blossom is looking great and certainly everybody out there is
a little bit of positivity on the horizon.
Speaker 2 (20:06):
Are there any blossoms left on the trees and Central Otago?
Have they all been blown off or rained off?
Speaker 6 (20:12):
There's a few and Yeah, it's certainly very challenging down
there at the moment. A lot of rain has happened,
difficult spraying conditions as well, but hopefully we'll move into
the latter part of October with some sunshine on the horizon.
Speaker 2 (20:26):
And of course, the big fear for orchardice and growers
at this time of the year as their word, isn't
it frost.
Speaker 6 (20:33):
Oh no, we don't say that.
Speaker 2 (20:34):
No, you can't say the airword. You're not allowed to
say it on this show either. Sometimes it does get muttered,
but that is obviously always a concern.
Speaker 6 (20:43):
It is very much so, and certainly that's something that
all of the orchardese will be fearful of going forward
the next few weeks, but fingers crossed it won't happen.
Speaker 2 (20:53):
What are the prospects like for apples and pears heading
into the new season, because we know, for instance, that
Kiwi fruits come off the back of a very good season.
Speaker 6 (21:03):
Yeah, correct, I mean very similar with pit fruit as well,
and certainly there's a fair amount of positivity from the
markets with the last harvest that we've had. You know,
the color, the taste, the storability, the quality was exceptional.
So the positivity is out there. I recently spent some
time at Asia Fruit Logistica in Hong Kong and growers
and customers were positive, so we hope that that has
(21:27):
got a long tail.
Speaker 2 (21:28):
How was the recovery going in the Hawks Bay or
the wider Hawks Bay region from Gabrielle All those orchards
that were decimated destroyed in some cases, some.
Speaker 6 (21:39):
Are replanting and in the early stages of that. So
there's a lot of new plantings as you drive around
the district, but certainly there's a lot of empty paddocks
as well, so there's a bit of a shift there.
But certainly we're trying to work with government to keep
the focus on that rebuild as well so that it
doesn't get forgotten.
Speaker 2 (21:58):
I was shocked about this timing year ago when I
had drove through the Esk Valley. I couldn't believe it,
and that was months after gabriel Obviously, are those areas
being replanted.
Speaker 6 (22:10):
Possibly not quite as far north as that, certainly through
Cookie Tap Dark Moor those areas there's a lot of
new plantings going in, which is very positive to see,
and as they say, with having a nice spring, which
certainly helps with those replant conditions.
Speaker 2 (22:26):
What do you make of news that the government is
looking to for instance, fast Trek, the Ruatani far Dam.
Speaker 6 (22:32):
Oh, certainly any kind of news where the government is
listening to us is great and we'll be working with
hortend Z to see how that folds over the next
few months as it as it becomes more of a reality.
Speaker 2 (22:45):
So if they got that dam and Central hawks Bay,
what would they be growing down there? From you and Hastings?
Speaker 3 (22:52):
Oh, Priki?
Speaker 6 (22:55):
Yeah? What variety wise? I mean, certainly at the moment
there's plantings going in of a lot of those IP
varieties and I won't name any because I might get
into trouble.
Speaker 2 (23:05):
You mean you mean like rocket oh, anything like that.
Speaker 6 (23:09):
Yeah, I mean certainly those popular varieties going in could
be anywhere really within Hawks Bay, Nelson, Central Otago, Gisbon
all over.
Speaker 2 (23:18):
So do you reckon there's a market for every apple
we can grow in New Zealand?
Speaker 6 (23:22):
Definitely? Definitely, I mean certainly our strategy is that we
will double our value and that will be through better
growing systems and those IP varieties that have got a
story and a brand to keep New Zealand Ink strong.
Speaker 2 (23:37):
Well on, please because the apple and pear growers and
hawks Bay especially need a bit of a break. I
hope you have a good season. Karen Morris, thank you
very much for your time.
Speaker 3 (23:48):
Thank you, Jamie.
Speaker 2 (23:50):
Twenty four away from one and we're going to have
a look at central hawks Bay and the Ruy Tunny
far Dam with Vanessa one and Chief Executive of Irrigation
Zealand and also Bryce mackenzie, co founder of Groundswell. He's
been in Sri Lanka. I thought he was a farmer.
He's been over at the Senior World Cup of Indoor
Cricket and we'll see what ground Swell's up to. They've
(24:12):
got their teeth into the banking inquiry. Plus I'll tell
you what. I've had a guts full of Safe Green Peace,
the wombats down in Southland taking pictures of animals standing
in water. Duh, it's a flood you dipsticks anyhow, that's
don't get me started on them. Up next Rural News
with Rowena. Michelle's under the weather at the moment, so
(24:34):
we've got row for a day or two. We'll have
a look at sport as well. Welcome back to the country.
(24:57):
Twenty away from one, Well, haven't got row Xana as such,
great song from Toto, but I've got row.
Speaker 1 (25:05):
The country's world news with cub Cadet, New Zealand's leading
right on lawn Bower brands it steel Ford dot Co
dot z for your locals.
Speaker 2 (25:13):
Doggist who has come off the bench for Michelle today, Rowena,
what are you up to? Where are you? How are you?
With speed of Montgomery would say, well.
Speaker 7 (25:22):
I'm behaving myself, Jamie, I'm indured me headquarters in Auckland.
Speaker 2 (25:27):
Right, you might need to turn your volume up a
wee bit work. I can barely hear you. Just give
yourself a wee bit more.
Speaker 7 (25:32):
Zus Is that better, Jamie?
Speaker 2 (25:33):
Yeah, that's better.
Speaker 7 (25:34):
See new system. We're doing well though.
Speaker 2 (25:36):
Well it's an old dog and new tricks. I've got
no idea how to work this, but we managed to
get you to here. You're on one of our ob
lines that they've patched and all right, what do you
got in rural news?
Speaker 4 (25:46):
Yeah?
Speaker 7 (25:46):
So the New Zealand Agricultural Aviation Association are concerned about
an increase in accidents lately. So in just over two
months there's actually been five serious accidents and five incidents
as well a number of which are under investigation. In
a lot of posts on social media are from the
organization about this, so R and Z's reporting that among
the incidents are things like a plane heading a fence,
(26:08):
a plane varying during takeoff on a wet airstrip, going
down a bank through a fence, and a helicopter striking
wires during a spraying operation. The organization is saying, you
know things like pilots just take your time, and also
farmers just be aware that in the weather, your pilot's
actually going to let you know when they need to stop.
And finally, Growing Future Farmers, which is an initiative providing
(26:29):
fees free training by farmers on farm, has received a
record one hundred and thirty one applications for the twenty
twenty five intake, so the demand actually outstrips the availability
of eighty placements. And such are the organizations calling for
more farm trainers, particularly in Canterbury, King Country and the
kudo Otago region. So if you're interested in becoming a
(26:49):
farm trainer, visit Growing Futurefarmers dot co dot nz.
Speaker 2 (26:53):
Right, you just hanging with me because I've got to
do sports news and I feel like Ray Rabs Warren
on twelve man trying to get through the you know
when he reads out the New Zealand League team, Yes,
and he goes Stacey Stacey Jones.
Speaker 7 (27:07):
Don't put on your ray robes Warren impression.
Speaker 2 (27:09):
No, I can't do that as well as someone I
know very well. But anyhow, I'll have a crack at
this one.
Speaker 1 (27:15):
Sport with AFCO. Visit them online at a f CO
dot co dot nzed and.
Speaker 2 (27:20):
Stacey Jones has has named only three specialist halves and
his twenty man or twenty one man Keywi squad for
the Pacific Championships dally M winner Jerome Hughes, Cody Nicarima
Trent to Lao Arn along with or with sorry without No,
(27:40):
they're in, aren't they?
Speaker 7 (27:41):
Yes, Arren, Karen for and are out.
Speaker 2 (27:45):
Well you picked all the easy ones. Yeah, I know
they're out. But the dally M winner, Jerome Hughes is in.
Mind you. He got outplayed, His whole team got outplayed
in that brilliant NRL final on Sunday night. Veterans center
Peter Hicku has halves experience. He's flying from England for
the tournament after being called up from Hull Kingston Rovers
in the Super League, and speculation Rowena looms over which
(28:10):
members of the All Blacks Development fifteen will join the
main side ahead of their rugby test against Japan on
October twenty six. That would allow a core group of
players to travel to England early to prepare for the
Northern Tour. And I'll tell you what, row that Northern
Tour that is a that's almost a suicide mission. They've
got three of the top well maybe not England but
(28:32):
certainly France and Ireland. How tough is that going to be?
Speaker 4 (28:34):
Oh?
Speaker 7 (28:35):
Extremely tough? But looking forward to it. It's about time
we saw some good rugby for a while.
Speaker 2 (28:39):
Okay, Now up next, I'm going to talk about hawks
Bay and the Central Hawks Bay, the RUA tunny far
dam Are you're heading there tomorrow?
Speaker 7 (28:47):
Yes I am. Actually we've got the young rower of
the year in hawks Bay. On Thursday night you were
unable to mc at Jamie, so I got pulled off
the bench for that as well.
Speaker 2 (28:56):
Tell the truth, you're never at home anyhow. I'll catch
you tomorrow on hawks By. Thanks for filling in for
Michelle today, My pleasure. There we go, Rowena, Duncan. We're
going to take a break. On the other side of it,
the Chief Executive of Irrogation New Zealand, Vanessa Winning and
Bryce Mackenzie, the West Otago farmer. What the hell was
he doing in Sri Lanka. That's before the end of
the hour. She is the Chief Executive of Irrigation New Zealand,
(29:27):
Vanessa Winning, Your damn, my dam? We both love dams?
Is the ruer tone for dam back on the table
now that it's got fast tracking approval?
Speaker 8 (29:37):
Yeah, well it's a different dam than there are a
ton of the dam and that you know, there are
some slight changes to it. So it's now called the
Turki Took Water Security Project And yes it's back on
the table, but to be fear, they still actually have
the consent. So it was actually consented through the Environment
Court almost ten years ago. So what this means is
(29:57):
that it is now going to be relooked at under
the fast fast track consenting process.
Speaker 2 (30:04):
What is a possible time frame or a timeline for
getting this dam built, this dam dam built.
Speaker 8 (30:12):
Well, it depends on how quickly they can get funding
and how quickly the actual consent comes through and also
you know, making sure that the shaeholders are still fully
on board and ready to go, and then it's about commissioning,
getting you know, this thing up and running and dug.
But my understanding is that it would be within the
five year program of work.
Speaker 2 (30:33):
Who's going to pay for it? Where's the funding coming from?
Speaker 8 (30:36):
So, because there's between forty to sixty thousand hectares available
to be irrigated, there will be some that are sitting
already under groundwater takes and so they would move unto
this scheme. So there'll be some funding that will come
from those that need to move from groundwater. And then
there'll be additional hecty erriage, so you know, up to
(30:57):
another twenty thousand new hectares underation, and so they'll be
funding it as well the people who will actually be
using the water. And then there'll be some regional development
funding I would imagine, and also you know private investors
like banks or funds, you know, international funds or local
funds that would support it.
Speaker 2 (31:17):
So I've already spoken to Karen Morrish from Apples and
Pears in z going to grow some apples and pears
down there obviously or up there, depending whereabouts in the
country you are, what other land uses are we going
to have under irrigation. Are for instance, we're going to
have more dairy farms. They want to double the value
of exports. Where can you put a dairy farm these days?
Speaker 8 (31:39):
I wouldn't imagine Hawk's Bay is you know, is good
dairy country. It's pretty hot and it's you know, like
that would take quite a lot of pasture under irrigation
to make that work. So there are some dairy farms
that sit underground water takes that will move into the scheme,
I would imagine, But new dairy I would be very
(31:59):
shocked there was in the new dairy in the Hawk's Bay.
I would say that the cost of the water is
going to be prohibitive for dairy. You would be looking
at more apple's, maybe kiwi fruit, definitely for the culture
and some vegetables. So you know, i'd say the very
the vast majority will be focused on horticulture.
Speaker 2 (32:19):
What is the community behind us? You're probably the wrong
person to ask.
Speaker 8 (32:24):
Well, they definitely were. You know, there was always some pushback,
but you've got to remember they actually had the consent,
so they went through the Environment Court, had the consent
and you know, the process went through. So this isn't
really about well, it is about reconsenting, but it's not
about that part of the process. The issue really was
the dock swap of land. So if you remember they
(32:47):
were taken to Supreme Court because of dock wanting to
sell land or swap land with private men. That was
actually the final hurdle that they couldn't get through. So
with that, you know, potentially being removed and we've still
got to go through the process with fast Track. That's
actually the issue, not the community and not you know,
(33:08):
local representative of the EWE. There is so much opportunity
for community and EWE with us, including drinking water and
including development in and around productive land. So you know,
I would be surprised if the local community push back
on it. You know, it's getting drier, it's getting harder.
We need more storage projects and we need a future
(33:30):
proof in New Zealand to grow fruit and vegi.
Speaker 2 (33:32):
The final quick question for you, are there any other
dams on the fast track list?
Speaker 8 (33:38):
There are two large storage projects, both of which are
in Canterbury, and then there's some small, smaller storage projects
up in and around Northland. And remember this is just
a start. So what one hundred and forty nine projects
have been put onto Schedule two. Potentially, you know, if
we don't have the reviews to the Rima and Player
(34:00):
in the next sort of eighteen months to two years,
I would say that that the potential for fast Trek
into the future will be utilized again for other projects.
Speaker 2 (34:09):
Vanessa Wanning always good to catch up on the country,
Chief Executive of Irrigation New Zealand. Thanks for your time
and to quote the great sage Shane Jones, dig it up,
damn it up, see you later. Thanks, Jamie ate Away
from One Up. Next Bryce Mackenzie from Groundswell some are
your feedback, leave time alone. I won't say what the
text has said. Next he said, then he carries on
(34:30):
to right. He's always looked after the kids. I've seen
how good a father he is firsthand. Stay out of Maracopa.
We don't need outsider's judgment. And that's from Greg. Thanks
for putting your name to it. Greg. Look, regardless of
how good a father Tom Phillips say, is it's just
not right to have those kids out on the bush
for three years and committing crimes on at least one occasion.
(34:50):
That's my thoughts on it. Welcome back to the country.
Co founder of Groundswell Bryce McKenzie. Not in Africa, He
was in Sri Lanka. Bryce, shouldn't you have been homeworking
on the West Otago dairy farm or dairy farms that
(35:13):
were underwater?
Speaker 4 (35:14):
Yeah, hello Jamie, and listeners to you. I found to
wed that guilty, Jamie, being over there flooding going on
back home? I surely did.
Speaker 2 (35:22):
Hey, what do you make of these safe nutters? And
they are in this case and Greenpeace getting stuck into
farmers because animals are standing in water. This is natural,
this is a flood. It's not the fault of the farmers.
They need a good punt up the backside, not the farmers.
The activists.
Speaker 4 (35:41):
Yeah, look, Jamie, and it's quite obvious that they actually
know nothing about farming whatsoever. And most of them are
not conservationists or standing up for the environment that London
vegans and you know all are maried of trying to
do is get rid of livestock farming. That's a shame
that they're not picked up for what they're doing. I
(36:03):
don't know how you combat or Jamie, because it's getting
pretty widespread, but they're idiots.
Speaker 2 (36:09):
Well, I think you've summed it up nicely. What were
you doing in Sri Lanka.
Speaker 4 (36:14):
I could say I was over there to see the
results of the election, but I wasn't because the election
was held the day before we arrived. We actually arrived
in curfew, Jamie. Everybody was in lock up because of
course they have a bit of a history after elections
of things going haywire. And we stayed in the hotel,
the Kingsbury Hotel, which was one of the hotels that
(36:36):
was bombed on the East of Sunday bombings in twenty nineteen,
and there was two hundred and seventy odd people got
killed in there.
Speaker 2 (36:45):
So you were there for the Senior World Cup of
Indoor Cricket. Were you playing?
Speaker 4 (36:49):
I wasn't, Jamie. I was there watching and it was
a good chance to go over there. And of course
the black Caps were playing in Gaul against Sri Lanka.
Spend a day the first day down there watching. But
that's the old addage, isn't it that you can't want
to match on the first day, but sure a hank
and lose it. That's exactly what they did.
Speaker 2 (37:11):
Hey, Bryce, I've run your shorts, sorry, because I got
carried away getting stuck into the activists. Sorry about that.
We prepared to front up. Open the batting again tomorrow
or not open the batting. Luxon will be doing that.
Will you come back and talk to me tomorrow about
the banking inquiry and what ground Swell are up to?
Speaker 5 (37:28):
Yeah for sure, good man.
Speaker 2 (37:30):
Well you're in Auckland. I should be calling you a
Queen Street farmer anyhow, not a bloody West Otago farmer. Well,
we'll catch you back again tomorrow and we'll finish this
conversation part two. There you go. That is Bryce Mackenzie.
I was almost going to say Bryce Lawrence. Wonder if
Bryce is one of those activists. He slightly woke, good bloke,
but slightly woke. We'll catch you back tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (37:55):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's The Country
Podcast with Jamie mckue. Thanks to Brent, You're specialist in
John Deere construction equipment.
Catch all the latest from the land. It's The Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to Brent. You're specialist in
John Dee Machinery.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
Gay New Zealand and welcome to the Country. I'm Jamie McKay.
Tomorrow two pm the official cash rape will be reviewed.
Will he go twenty five or fifty basis points, Adrian
or I'm talking about well? Ask our expert independent economist
Cameron Bagri. He's also on the capital gains tax bandwagon.
(00:48):
We'll chat to him. Hey. One of the big stories,
in fact, I think it's leading the Herald website right
at the moment, is the sighting of the Maracopa fugitive
Tom and his three children. As fate would have it,
it was on the farm of one of the guys
we chat to hear on the Country, John mcavinnie. When
(01:08):
he's not a sheep and beef farmer, he's the chief
executive of Steelfort. Now he's got a fugitive running around
in the bush at the top of his farm. We'll
get that story for you. Karen Morrish is the chief
executive of Apple and Pears n Z. Very good prospects apparently,
or our Apple and Pear growers this season. They deserve it.
(01:28):
They've had a few tough ones and one of the
reasons there's good prospects is that there's good prospects we
might get some water back in Hawks Bay, Central Hawks Bay.
Is the Rua Tani far dam now back on the
table after the fast tracking legislation from the government. And
how about this one. The co founder of Groundswell, the
Ginger Group, the protest Group, Bryce Mackenzie, instead of helping
(01:52):
out on the West Otago farm where I've been underwater,
he's been in Sri Lanka for the Senior World Cup
in or cricket tournament, the mind Bibles. I don't know
who was running the farmer in his absence, probably the lads.
But we'll also catch up with him see what ground
Swells up to. They've got a banking inquiry that they're
getting their teeth into and I'm very disappointed. And to
(02:13):
hear animal activists arounding flood affected farmers in the Deep South.
All that to come before the end of the hour.
Cameron bagriy to kick it off tomorrow afternoon two pm.
Will the Reserve Bank Governor Adrian org twenty five points
(02:35):
or fifty basis points. When it comes to dropping the
official cash rate. Let's ask an expert in the field,
independent economists, Cameron Bagriy, what are you going for?
Speaker 3 (02:46):
It doesn't really matter whether they go twenty five or fifty.
You know that the broad theme here is that illustrates
to hitting lower. It's just the speed by which we
get down towards an OCO somewhere between three to four
percent of them. The endgame, you know, what they do
on the day is really in material. The bigger picture
here is it the next twelve to eighty months, the
(03:06):
OCA is going to be an awful lot lower than
where it is today.
Speaker 2 (03:09):
Yeah, but wouldn't it kickstart the economy If he went
fifty tomorrow.
Speaker 3 (03:14):
That would help with the with the margin. But it's
not just what you do with the official care straight
on the day, Jamie. That's what you signal going forward,
you know. So if they went fifty basis ports and
didn't see the signal too much down the track, you
could see interest rates back off and New Zealand dollar
have a prefers reaction. Conversely, if you went twenty five
(03:36):
and if you went real dubblish, if you're going to
keep on going or maybe you're going to be a
little bit more aggressive. Then you could actually see interstrates
fall further under that scenario. So what you do on
the day is one thing, but what you signal about
the next twelve months is another.
Speaker 2 (03:50):
So is it a Donedale. Let's say he only went
twenty five tomorrow, he would then go fifty in late November.
Speaker 3 (03:57):
Yeah, well that's probably the scenario odds lean towards. And
why would you wait till November? Because you get the
benefit of that Q three inflation rate and we know
inflation is heading down, assist the speed by which we're
on track to get down towards two percent, and if
we get a softer read, well you back it up
with probably a fifty basis points move. That inflation number
(04:20):
comes through and it's an awkward surprise. I Inflation is
not coming down as fast as what we think because
you've got the things such as local authority rates and
energy prices, et cetera, et cetera. So there's still some
inflation sticking points. But my view, you want a little
bit of what's called the proof in the pudding. You
want that inflation number to confirm whether you're on track
(04:41):
towards two percent. We think that we believe that. But finally,
but you do need a little bit of that hard
evidence in regard to inflation itself.
Speaker 2 (04:49):
What's the neutral number? I see ASP for instance of
quoting three point two five percent.
Speaker 3 (04:56):
Yeah, Well, that neutral oci whether it's sad events and
either got the foot accelerator or the break where we
think the OCA is going to go to the re
is their bank is saying three asps around three and
a quarter. You've got Westpac in myself a little bit
higher around three and a half to four. The good
news is that doesn't matter whether you're at three three
(05:17):
point twenty five, three and a half to four, that's
still have a lot lower than five twenty five. So
there's agreement rates are going to head down towards that
sort his ore, But it's a zart. Yeah, the neutral
rate is not a precise number.
Speaker 2 (05:29):
Are banks being too tough by stress testing mortgages at
nine percent?
Speaker 4 (05:35):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (05:35):
I think I'd say that at the moment. So what
we tend to see is that those stress test rates
do tend to move a little bit in line with
excell interest rates when boning rates moved up. Of course,
the stress test rates moved up as physical borring rates
move down, and they're starting to move down. I'd expect
in six months time those stress rates will start to
(05:57):
look for a little bit as well, emphasis on a
little bit.
Speaker 2 (06:01):
You mentioned the New Zealand dollar in the exchange rate.
I think it's what about sixty one sixty two at
the moment, it's fallen away, and obviously what happens tomorrow
will have an effect on the exchange rate.
Speaker 3 (06:13):
Yeah. Well, but I guess if you look at the
New Zealand dollar was heading up. Why was the New
Zealand dollar heading up? Because the US Federal Reserve such
interest rates. What we saw on Friday night last week,
Jamie was an absolute stonker of an employment report out
of America. They add at about two hundred and forty
four thousand jobs in a month. The American unemployment rate
(06:35):
is back down at four point one percent. All of
a sudden, people are starting to say, yes, well, how
much could the US fed a Reserve have to roove
rates in the next twelve months because it looks like
that economy is still looking pretty robust. Robust US economy
that signals have less need for interest rates to come
down that signals a stronger US dollar, US dollar goes
(06:56):
up or the New Zealand dollar US dollar wings have
been clipped a little in the past week, and it's
got little to do with the New Zealand side of
the equation, a lot to do with the United States.
Speaker 2 (07:05):
What did you make of the chief executive of your
old bank an Z You used to be the chief
economist there, Antonia Watson, now the chief executive, coming out
and making a bit of a public play around a
capital gains tax.
Speaker 3 (07:18):
I'm in agreement with it. So it's the International Monetary Fund,
so Organization for Economic Corroberating and Development. That's the OESED.
I think you know, most economists, myself included, would agree
that we do need a capital gains tax raisine in
some shape or form. The issue is then he design
(07:39):
it so you make it as efficient as possible. I
you don't create a whole lot of perverse incentives. But
at the bottom line, gaming is that in New Zealand
is going to need more money over the next ten
years to fund the likes of infrastructure, to fund the
likes of healthcare. And if we accept the basic proposition
that the government's going to need more money and mentuage
(07:59):
local priorities as well. The next question is who's going
to pay? And I suspect that's when the debate turns
into debate about well, who's actually got all the money?
And that's you start talking about Wealth Pact as capital
gains tax, those sort of things. You know, I'm not
a fan of a wealth tax. I am a saying
I have a capital gains tax. I think that's a
(08:19):
common sense solution. It's just a question of time, James,
before we get a decent one actually here in New Zealand.
And good an Antonia Watson for being brave enough to
put it on the table.
Speaker 2 (08:29):
Okay, so you're going twenty five tomorrow and fifty basis
points on November the twenty seventh. We'll see how good
you are. Cameron Bagrie, thanks for your time on the Country.
You always appreciate it. What the best, dammy, thank you, Cameron.
Sixteen after twelve you're with the Country, brought to you
by Brent. Yesterday on the show, we had Blair Blizzard MacLean,
(08:49):
a Vita culture guy out of Blenham on the show
and he very generously came up with some fun packs
from Ripara Springs, great Winery, Blenham based, and we had
some fun packs to give to farmers who have been
hammered by the weather. And to be honest, they're all
(09:13):
drawn out of the hat out of Auckland. But I
did have one stipulation that Simon Davies of Milton, Hello, Simon,
if you're listening in South Otago, He's lost lots of
his farm to slip, so we're get sending you some Simon.
The rest of you came out of the hat and
the winners were as follows. Not surprisingly we had a
lot of entries from the bottom of the country because
(09:34):
they've been the worst effected. So Grant Mackenzie and Isler Bank,
Lisa Thompson and Fong Ray, Rachelle Faulkner and Tapanui, Tom
Hunter and Wyndham. I think I used to play rugby
against Tom. I didn't pick him. No nepotism of favoritism.
There world done. Tom and Tracy Ryan in Danaverk who
I think is the local posting. So you people are
(09:56):
all going to get a fun pack from Rapara Springs.
Thank you, Blair, Blizzard MacLean and the team from Fruit
Fed supplies for making that possible. Cheers some people up.
It's been a bit of a bugger of a spring,
hasn't it? Anyhow? Exciting times? I think at Waititomo where
(10:18):
yesterday I think it was Friday night or was it Saturday?
The grandson of John mcavinie, irregular here on the Country
spotted Tom Phillips, the fugitive, the Maricopa Fugitive and his
three kids. Go and have a look at the videos
on the Herald website. She's a bit freaky, a bit creepy,
to be perfectly honest. Are we going to talk to
(10:40):
John next before the end of the hour? Karen Morrish,
chief executive of Apples and Pears, n Z Vanessa winning
on some more dams. You can't have too many dams.
And Bryce mackenzie, what was the boss of ground Swell
or the co founder doing in Sri Lanka? I thought
he should be here fighting for farmers. We'll ask him
before the end of the hour. Well, our next guest
(11:13):
on the Country, John mcavinie, sent me a video just
before the end of yesterday's show. I didn't get time
to deal with it. I wished I had because I
would have had an exclusive John mcavinie. In the intervening
day or less than a day, you have been literally
a media star. You've sold yourself to everybody. I'll be
battling the Woman's Weekly just to get you on this show.
Speaker 5 (11:36):
Well, Jamie, I've never hit so many calls from media
in my life. I've had TV in z I've had
news Talk zed B and I've had Radio New Zealand
and you know it's yeah, it's quite unusual. I never
hit so much prominence in my life.
Speaker 2 (11:54):
Well, John, I feel a bit like a jelted bride.
You're a regular here on the country. I thought you
would would have chatted to me first. I realized the
time frames around it. Now. The reason you are in
the media, of course because on your w Timo Sheep
and Beef Farm, your grandson out pig hunting, spotted Tom
Phillips the Future are from Maracopa and there's three kids.
Speaker 5 (12:15):
Yeah, well that's exactly right. They were. They're out there
docking this week, all week docking. I've got two grandkids
and two of their mates out there and that's what
they're doing this week, and that's the reason they're there.
But they went out for a hunt on Thursday night
and it was right up by the trek. There's a
trig station up there and you can see Mark Copa
(12:35):
from that area. And he rang me and he said, ah,
he said, there's a guy here with a great, big
beard and there's three kids. He said, wasn't there somebody
went missing?
Speaker 3 (12:45):
And I said no.
Speaker 5 (12:46):
I immediately recalled Tom Phillips and I said it'll be
him right, And of course you know what happens. Of course,
these kids, you know, they well they're not kids, they're
sort of young adults now. They immediately pull out their
phone as you and I, Jamie, would you know, we'd
ring one one one or whatever. But they immediately video
these guys and you've seen those videos, and pretty pretty defining,
(13:08):
isn't it.
Speaker 2 (13:08):
Well, i'd bear way, but wary video and Tom Phillips
is carrying a gun.
Speaker 5 (13:13):
Yeah, exactly. So they were a bit circumspect about that.
So he rang me and said what should I do?
And I said, well, ring one one one, which he did,
and he ran Brent, the far manager, and he knows
one of the police because as they've been around on
varying occasions over the last two or three years. So
he rang that guy and they unfortunately, you know, it
(13:34):
was getting towards the end of the day. It was
about seven o'clock when he rang me, and of course
by the time the police got out there the following morning,
they were well gone. But they did. You know, Andre,
my grandson, he talked to one of the kids and
you know, had not a conversation but a very short conversation.
(13:54):
So he had good presence of mine to get a
video in those videos, as I say, a pretty defining,
aren't they.
Speaker 2 (14:03):
Well, absolutely, and the video shows Tom Phillips clearly walking
away and military precision, almost whistling at the kids. Come on,
hurry up. You don't know what sort of duress they're under. Oh,
it's a bit freaky. He could have been living on
your farm for years.
Speaker 5 (14:19):
Well, it's very possible, but there's a lot of bushes there,
and of course it carries on what will pass our place.
You know, there's a big, big area there. I don't
know for three four thousand eight years there that he
could have been hiding in. But you know, looking after
those kids, you know, all the time like that, he
must be getting some help. And you know, I'm not
sure where that comes from, but it's pretty hard to
(14:41):
live off the bush, especially with one of those children.
At one stage, I think they were only about three
and a half six and a half now, so they've
you know, it's nearly three years since they've had any
major sightings of them.
Speaker 2 (14:53):
Oh well, it'll make docking a bit more exciting. On
the sheep and beef farm, how's it going.
Speaker 5 (15:00):
Well, they got they got half a day in yesterday
and I talked to Brent this morning. They did eight
hundreds this morning. So I'm on the way over there
now and we're chief sou and I chief cook and
bottle washers. So we'll be feeding these kids and they'll
be pretty angry at what imagine. And so we're going
over there to sort of just give a hand and
(15:21):
and so I know, a lot more stuff or you know,
at five o'clock tonight when they finish.
Speaker 2 (15:26):
What sort of season are you having?
Speaker 5 (15:29):
It's indifferent. You know, we've had a feever bit of rain,
but it hasn't been that cold. You know, I've talked
to Brandon. You know, we we use giving Derek Daniels
to plug way rams and you know they are tough,
these sheep. You know, they drop them in the rain
and the and the mud and whatever, and they seem
to get up and walk away, and you know so
(15:51):
but Brent said, we've had a pretty you know, pretty
good survival, right so hopefully it'll turn into you know,
you know, as much as we got last year, which
was close to tend and lands.
Speaker 2 (16:00):
Okay, John, when you're not farming or fighting crime on
your on your sheet and beef farm, you're running steel. Thought,
how's the retail scene going in New Zealand at the moment?
I mean, this is your prime time selling season for lawnmowers.
Is it too weak to get a lawnmower out?
Speaker 5 (16:18):
Well, there's certain places in the country that are going okay,
but you know, if you had to describe it, you'd
call it sticky. It hasn't fired properly as yet. But
there's still plenty of time, you know, sort of October, November, December.
You know, we've had plenty of we've got plenty of
moisture in the ground and there's plenty of grass around.
(16:38):
It's just a matter of getting onto it. But you know,
I'm going to know a bit more later this week,
but I would say that, you know, it's pretty bullish
about it. He thinks that there's been a good survival rate,
and you know, if we get anything like half good
between now and the end of October November, we should
we should should go okay, because it's looking a lot
better now, you know, for both the farming and if
(17:03):
these interest rates come down next week and maybe next month,
it'll give a bit more enthusiasm into the economy.
Speaker 2 (17:12):
Well, John, you don't even have to wait for next week.
I'll come down tomorrow. The question is whether it'll be
twenty five or fifty basis points. It's certainly going to
kickstart retail, especially as we head into Christmas, and goodness
knows we needed. I think the cure has been far
worse than the disease from the good doctor Adrian.
Speaker 5 (17:29):
Or These guys are doing a good job, I think,
you know, I mean, they might be not ticking every
box for everybody, but generally, you know, they're a long
way head of who's evident in the second place, aren't
they right.
Speaker 2 (17:41):
We'll let you go. Good luck finding Tom Phillips.
Speaker 5 (17:44):
Okay, thank Jamie. Nice to talk kids.
Speaker 2 (17:48):
John mcaveny from steel Fort. I'd be a bit freaked
out if Tom Phillips was running around my place. Anyhow,
there's plenty of bush up there, apparently interesting already some
of your feedback at text numbers five, double nine. Tom's
my neighbor. This is Tom Hunter, one of the winners.
I guess it strinks at his place this week. Well,
(18:09):
as long as the Courier, as long as Blizzard gets
it to you before Friday, good luck. I went through
and read some of the texts after I got sent
the list of winners yesterday afternoon, and apparently Tom's done
fifty lammings. I think he deserves a fun pack for
hanging in for fifty of them. Jamie, don't get Cameron
baggery back. Capital gains tax is crap. Now here's a
(18:36):
good one. Next time you're talking to the PM, this
is me, which will be tomorrow morning at quarter to eight,
about the Dunedin hospital, ask him why ACC is not
contributing some of the forty seven billion they're currently sitting on.
That's probably a fair question. It would be a good
thing for ACC to invest in fund, wouldn't you It
would save them some money. Good point. I'll ask him
(18:57):
that one on your behalf up. Next we're heading to
hawks Bay, Apple and Pears. The chief executive is Karen Morrish.
Are they in for a good season? We'll ask her next.
Speaker 4 (19:13):
Talk.
Speaker 2 (19:14):
Streets sound well, the Deep South is a bit of
a rice paddy at the moment. Other parts of the
country are on the lookout for a bit of moisture.
The fruit bowl of New Zealand is Hawks Bay. There
we find the chief executive of Apple and Pears n
Z Karen Morrish. And Karen, I know you're having a
very good season, but as always in October and Hawks Bay,
(19:36):
you're on the lookout for a bit of rain. Sea
you don't have to turn the irrigators on. Is that right?
Speaker 6 (19:41):
That would be very good. Yeah, as you say, we're
certainly starting going into the season very well, but a
bit of rain, excuse me, is always positive.
Speaker 2 (19:51):
Hawk's Bay will be full of blossoms at the moment.
Speaker 6 (19:54):
Yeah, it's beautiful actually as you drive around and you
can certainly see we've had a good start to the season.
Blossom is looking great and certainly everybody out there is
a little bit of positivity on the horizon.
Speaker 2 (20:06):
Are there any blossoms left on the trees and Central Otago?
Have they all been blown off or rained off?
Speaker 6 (20:12):
There's a few and Yeah, it's certainly very challenging down
there at the moment. A lot of rain has happened,
difficult spraying conditions as well, but hopefully we'll move into
the latter part of October with some sunshine on the horizon.
Speaker 2 (20:26):
And of course, the big fear for orchardice and growers
at this time of the year as their word, isn't
it frost.
Speaker 6 (20:33):
Oh no, we don't say that.
Speaker 2 (20:34):
No, you can't say the airword. You're not allowed to
say it on this show either. Sometimes it does get muttered,
but that is obviously always a concern.
Speaker 6 (20:43):
It is very much so, and certainly that's something that
all of the orchardese will be fearful of going forward
the next few weeks, but fingers crossed it won't happen.
Speaker 2 (20:53):
What are the prospects like for apples and pears heading
into the new season, because we know, for instance, that
Kiwi fruits come off the back of a very good season.
Speaker 6 (21:03):
Yeah, correct, I mean very similar with pit fruit as well,
and certainly there's a fair amount of positivity from the
markets with the last harvest that we've had. You know,
the color, the taste, the storability, the quality was exceptional.
So the positivity is out there. I recently spent some
time at Asia Fruit Logistica in Hong Kong and growers
and customers were positive, so we hope that that has
(21:27):
got a long tail.
Speaker 2 (21:28):
How was the recovery going in the Hawks Bay or
the wider Hawks Bay region from Gabrielle All those orchards
that were decimated destroyed in some cases, some.
Speaker 6 (21:39):
Are replanting and in the early stages of that. So
there's a lot of new plantings as you drive around
the district, but certainly there's a lot of empty paddocks
as well, so there's a bit of a shift there.
But certainly we're trying to work with government to keep
the focus on that rebuild as well so that it
doesn't get forgotten.
Speaker 2 (21:58):
I was shocked about this timing year ago when I
had drove through the Esk Valley. I couldn't believe it,
and that was months after gabriel Obviously, are those areas
being replanted.
Speaker 6 (22:10):
Possibly not quite as far north as that, certainly through
Cookie Tap Dark Moor those areas there's a lot of
new plantings going in, which is very positive to see,
and as they say, with having a nice spring, which
certainly helps with those replant conditions.
Speaker 2 (22:26):
What do you make of news that the government is
looking to for instance, fast Trek, the Ruatani far Dam.
Speaker 6 (22:32):
Oh, certainly any kind of news where the government is
listening to us is great and we'll be working with
hortend Z to see how that folds over the next
few months as it as it becomes more of a reality.
Speaker 2 (22:45):
So if they got that dam and Central hawks Bay,
what would they be growing down there? From you and Hastings?
Speaker 3 (22:52):
Oh, Priki?
Speaker 6 (22:55):
Yeah? What variety wise? I mean, certainly at the moment
there's plantings going in of a lot of those IP
varieties and I won't name any because I might get
into trouble.
Speaker 2 (23:05):
You mean you mean like rocket oh, anything like that.
Speaker 6 (23:09):
Yeah, I mean certainly those popular varieties going in could
be anywhere really within Hawks Bay, Nelson, Central Otago, Gisbon
all over.
Speaker 2 (23:18):
So do you reckon there's a market for every apple
we can grow in New Zealand?
Speaker 6 (23:22):
Definitely? Definitely, I mean certainly our strategy is that we
will double our value and that will be through better
growing systems and those IP varieties that have got a
story and a brand to keep New Zealand Ink strong.
Speaker 2 (23:37):
Well on, please because the apple and pear growers and
hawks Bay especially need a bit of a break. I
hope you have a good season. Karen Morris, thank you
very much for your time.
Speaker 3 (23:48):
Thank you, Jamie.
Speaker 2 (23:50):
Twenty four away from one and we're going to have
a look at central hawks Bay and the Ruy Tunny
far Dam with Vanessa one and Chief Executive of Irrigation
Zealand and also Bryce mackenzie, co founder of Groundswell. He's
been in Sri Lanka. I thought he was a farmer.
He's been over at the Senior World Cup of Indoor
Cricket and we'll see what ground Swell's up to. They've
(24:12):
got their teeth into the banking inquiry. Plus I'll tell
you what. I've had a guts full of Safe Green Peace,
the wombats down in Southland taking pictures of animals standing
in water. Duh, it's a flood you dipsticks anyhow, that's
don't get me started on them. Up next Rural News
with Rowena. Michelle's under the weather at the moment, so
(24:34):
we've got row for a day or two. We'll have
a look at sport as well. Welcome back to the country.
(24:57):
Twenty away from one, Well, haven't got row Xana as such,
great song from Toto, but I've got row.
Speaker 1 (25:05):
The country's world news with cub Cadet, New Zealand's leading
right on lawn Bower brands it steel Ford dot Co
dot z for your locals.
Speaker 2 (25:13):
Doggist who has come off the bench for Michelle today, Rowena,
what are you up to? Where are you? How are you?
With speed of Montgomery would say, well.
Speaker 7 (25:22):
I'm behaving myself, Jamie, I'm indured me headquarters in Auckland.
Speaker 2 (25:27):
Right, you might need to turn your volume up a
wee bit work. I can barely hear you. Just give
yourself a wee bit more.
Speaker 7 (25:32):
Zus Is that better, Jamie?
Speaker 2 (25:33):
Yeah, that's better.
Speaker 7 (25:34):
See new system. We're doing well though.
Speaker 2 (25:36):
Well it's an old dog and new tricks. I've got
no idea how to work this, but we managed to
get you to here. You're on one of our ob
lines that they've patched and all right, what do you
got in rural news?
Speaker 4 (25:46):
Yeah?
Speaker 7 (25:46):
So the New Zealand Agricultural Aviation Association are concerned about
an increase in accidents lately. So in just over two
months there's actually been five serious accidents and five incidents
as well a number of which are under investigation. In
a lot of posts on social media are from the
organization about this, so R and Z's reporting that among
the incidents are things like a plane heading a fence,
(26:08):
a plane varying during takeoff on a wet airstrip, going
down a bank through a fence, and a helicopter striking
wires during a spraying operation. The organization is saying, you
know things like pilots just take your time, and also
farmers just be aware that in the weather, your pilot's
actually going to let you know when they need to stop.
And finally, Growing Future Farmers, which is an initiative providing
(26:29):
fees free training by farmers on farm, has received a
record one hundred and thirty one applications for the twenty
twenty five intake, so the demand actually outstrips the availability
of eighty placements. And such are the organizations calling for
more farm trainers, particularly in Canterbury, King Country and the
kudo Otago region. So if you're interested in becoming a
(26:49):
farm trainer, visit Growing Futurefarmers dot co dot nz.
Speaker 2 (26:53):
Right, you just hanging with me because I've got to
do sports news and I feel like Ray Rabs Warren
on twelve man trying to get through the you know
when he reads out the New Zealand League team, Yes,
and he goes Stacey Stacey Jones.
Speaker 7 (27:07):
Don't put on your ray robes Warren impression.
Speaker 2 (27:09):
No, I can't do that as well as someone I
know very well. But anyhow, I'll have a crack at
this one.
Speaker 1 (27:15):
Sport with AFCO. Visit them online at a f CO
dot co dot nzed and.
Speaker 2 (27:20):
Stacey Jones has has named only three specialist halves and
his twenty man or twenty one man Keywi squad for
the Pacific Championships dally M winner Jerome Hughes, Cody Nicarima
Trent to Lao Arn along with or with sorry without No,
(27:40):
they're in, aren't they?
Speaker 7 (27:41):
Yes, Arren, Karen for and are out.
Speaker 2 (27:45):
Well you picked all the easy ones. Yeah, I know
they're out. But the dally M winner, Jerome Hughes is in.
Mind you. He got outplayed, His whole team got outplayed
in that brilliant NRL final on Sunday night. Veterans center
Peter Hicku has halves experience. He's flying from England for
the tournament after being called up from Hull Kingston Rovers
in the Super League, and speculation Rowena looms over which
(28:10):
members of the All Blacks Development fifteen will join the
main side ahead of their rugby test against Japan on
October twenty six. That would allow a core group of
players to travel to England early to prepare for the
Northern Tour. And I'll tell you what, row that Northern
Tour that is a that's almost a suicide mission. They've
got three of the top well maybe not England but
(28:32):
certainly France and Ireland. How tough is that going to be?
Speaker 4 (28:34):
Oh?
Speaker 7 (28:35):
Extremely tough? But looking forward to it. It's about time
we saw some good rugby for a while.
Speaker 2 (28:39):
Okay, Now up next, I'm going to talk about hawks
Bay and the Central Hawks Bay, the RUA tunny far
dam Are you're heading there tomorrow?
Speaker 7 (28:47):
Yes I am. Actually we've got the young rower of
the year in hawks Bay. On Thursday night you were
unable to mc at Jamie, so I got pulled off
the bench for that as well.
Speaker 2 (28:56):
Tell the truth, you're never at home anyhow. I'll catch
you tomorrow on hawks By. Thanks for filling in for
Michelle today, My pleasure. There we go, Rowena, Duncan. We're
going to take a break. On the other side of it,
the Chief Executive of Irrogation New Zealand, Vanessa Winning and
Bryce Mackenzie, the West Otago farmer. What the hell was
he doing in Sri Lanka. That's before the end of
the hour. She is the Chief Executive of Irrigation New Zealand,
(29:27):
Vanessa Winning, Your damn, my dam? We both love dams?
Is the ruer tone for dam back on the table
now that it's got fast tracking approval?
Speaker 8 (29:37):
Yeah, well it's a different dam than there are a
ton of the dam and that you know, there are
some slight changes to it. So it's now called the
Turki Took Water Security Project And yes it's back on
the table, but to be fear, they still actually have
the consent. So it was actually consented through the Environment
Court almost ten years ago. So what this means is
(29:57):
that it is now going to be relooked at under
the fast fast track consenting process.
Speaker 2 (30:04):
What is a possible time frame or a timeline for
getting this dam built, this dam dam built.
Speaker 8 (30:12):
Well, it depends on how quickly they can get funding
and how quickly the actual consent comes through and also
you know, making sure that the shaeholders are still fully
on board and ready to go, and then it's about commissioning,
getting you know, this thing up and running and dug.
But my understanding is that it would be within the
five year program of work.
Speaker 2 (30:33):
Who's going to pay for it? Where's the funding coming from?
Speaker 8 (30:36):
So, because there's between forty to sixty thousand hectares available
to be irrigated, there will be some that are sitting
already under groundwater takes and so they would move unto
this scheme. So there'll be some funding that will come
from those that need to move from groundwater. And then
there'll be additional hecty erriage, so you know, up to
(30:57):
another twenty thousand new hectares underation, and so they'll be
funding it as well the people who will actually be
using the water. And then there'll be some regional development
funding I would imagine, and also you know private investors
like banks or funds, you know, international funds or local
funds that would support it.
Speaker 2 (31:17):
So I've already spoken to Karen Morrish from Apples and
Pears in z going to grow some apples and pears
down there obviously or up there, depending whereabouts in the
country you are, what other land uses are we going
to have under irrigation. Are for instance, we're going to
have more dairy farms. They want to double the value
of exports. Where can you put a dairy farm these days?
Speaker 8 (31:39):
I wouldn't imagine Hawk's Bay is you know, is good
dairy country. It's pretty hot and it's you know, like
that would take quite a lot of pasture under irrigation
to make that work. So there are some dairy farms
that sit underground water takes that will move into the scheme,
I would imagine, But new dairy I would be very
(31:59):
shocked there was in the new dairy in the Hawk's Bay.
I would say that the cost of the water is
going to be prohibitive for dairy. You would be looking
at more apple's, maybe kiwi fruit, definitely for the culture
and some vegetables. So you know, i'd say the very
the vast majority will be focused on horticulture.
Speaker 2 (32:19):
What is the community behind us? You're probably the wrong
person to ask.
Speaker 8 (32:24):
Well, they definitely were. You know, there was always some pushback,
but you've got to remember they actually had the consent,
so they went through the Environment Court, had the consent
and you know, the process went through. So this isn't
really about well, it is about reconsenting, but it's not
about that part of the process. The issue really was
the dock swap of land. So if you remember they
(32:47):
were taken to Supreme Court because of dock wanting to
sell land or swap land with private men. That was
actually the final hurdle that they couldn't get through. So
with that, you know, potentially being removed and we've still
got to go through the process with fast Track. That's
actually the issue, not the community and not you know,
(33:08):
local representative of the EWE. There is so much opportunity
for community and EWE with us, including drinking water and
including development in and around productive land. So you know,
I would be surprised if the local community push back
on it. You know, it's getting drier, it's getting harder.
We need more storage projects and we need a future
(33:30):
proof in New Zealand to grow fruit and vegi.
Speaker 2 (33:32):
The final quick question for you, are there any other
dams on the fast track list?
Speaker 8 (33:38):
There are two large storage projects, both of which are
in Canterbury, and then there's some small, smaller storage projects
up in and around Northland. And remember this is just
a start. So what one hundred and forty nine projects
have been put onto Schedule two. Potentially, you know, if
we don't have the reviews to the Rima and Player
(34:00):
in the next sort of eighteen months to two years,
I would say that that the potential for fast Trek
into the future will be utilized again for other projects.
Speaker 2 (34:09):
Vanessa Wanning always good to catch up on the country,
Chief Executive of Irrigation New Zealand. Thanks for your time
and to quote the great sage Shane Jones, dig it up,
damn it up, see you later. Thanks, Jamie ate Away
from One Up. Next Bryce Mackenzie from Groundswell some are
your feedback, leave time alone. I won't say what the
text has said. Next he said, then he carries on
(34:30):
to right. He's always looked after the kids. I've seen
how good a father he is firsthand. Stay out of Maracopa.
We don't need outsider's judgment. And that's from Greg. Thanks
for putting your name to it. Greg. Look, regardless of
how good a father Tom Phillips say, is it's just
not right to have those kids out on the bush
for three years and committing crimes on at least one occasion.
(34:50):
That's my thoughts on it. Welcome back to the country.
Co founder of Groundswell Bryce McKenzie. Not in Africa, He
was in Sri Lanka. Bryce, shouldn't you have been homeworking
on the West Otago dairy farm or dairy farms that
(35:13):
were underwater?
Speaker 4 (35:14):
Yeah, hello Jamie, and listeners to you. I found to
wed that guilty, Jamie, being over there flooding going on
back home? I surely did.
Speaker 2 (35:22):
Hey, what do you make of these safe nutters? And
they are in this case and Greenpeace getting stuck into
farmers because animals are standing in water. This is natural,
this is a flood. It's not the fault of the farmers.
They need a good punt up the backside, not the farmers.
The activists.
Speaker 4 (35:41):
Yeah, look, Jamie, and it's quite obvious that they actually
know nothing about farming whatsoever. And most of them are
not conservationists or standing up for the environment that London
vegans and you know all are maried of trying to
do is get rid of livestock farming. That's a shame
that they're not picked up for what they're doing. I
(36:03):
don't know how you combat or Jamie, because it's getting
pretty widespread, but they're idiots.
Speaker 2 (36:09):
Well, I think you've summed it up nicely. What were
you doing in Sri Lanka.
Speaker 4 (36:14):
I could say I was over there to see the
results of the election, but I wasn't because the election
was held the day before we arrived. We actually arrived
in curfew, Jamie. Everybody was in lock up because of
course they have a bit of a history after elections
of things going haywire. And we stayed in the hotel,
the Kingsbury Hotel, which was one of the hotels that
(36:36):
was bombed on the East of Sunday bombings in twenty nineteen,
and there was two hundred and seventy odd people got
killed in there.
Speaker 2 (36:45):
So you were there for the Senior World Cup of
Indoor Cricket. Were you playing?
Speaker 4 (36:49):
I wasn't, Jamie. I was there watching and it was
a good chance to go over there. And of course
the black Caps were playing in Gaul against Sri Lanka.
Spend a day the first day down there watching. But
that's the old addage, isn't it that you can't want
to match on the first day, but sure a hank
and lose it. That's exactly what they did.
Speaker 2 (37:11):
Hey, Bryce, I've run your shorts, sorry, because I got
carried away getting stuck into the activists. Sorry about that.
We prepared to front up. Open the batting again tomorrow
or not open the batting. Luxon will be doing that.
Will you come back and talk to me tomorrow about
the banking inquiry and what ground Swell are up to?
Speaker 5 (37:28):
Yeah for sure, good man.
Speaker 2 (37:30):
Well you're in Auckland. I should be calling you a
Queen Street farmer anyhow, not a bloody West Otago farmer. Well,
we'll catch you back again tomorrow and we'll finish this
conversation part two. There you go. That is Bryce Mackenzie.
I was almost going to say Bryce Lawrence. Wonder if
Bryce is one of those activists. He slightly woke, good bloke,
but slightly woke. We'll catch you back tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (37:55):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's The Country
Podcast with Jamie mckue. Thanks to Brent, You're specialist in
John Deere construction equipment.
Popular Podcasts
On Purpose with Jay Shetty
I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
Cold Case Files: Miami
Joyce Sapp, 76; Bryan Herrera, 16; and Laurance Webb, 32—three Miami residents whose lives were stolen in brutal, unsolved homicides.  Cold Case Files: Miami follows award‑winning radio host and City of Miami Police reserve officer  Enrique Santos as he partners with the department’s Cold Case Homicide Unit, determined family members, and the advocates who spend their lives fighting for justice for the victims who can no longer fight for themselves.