October 27, 2025 • 36 mins
Jamie Mackay talks to Mark Mitchell, Katie Milne, Cameron Bagrie, Damien O'Connor, and Phil Duncan.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's The Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to friend you're specialist in
John Deer construction equipment.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
Goody, good afternoon, New Zealand. This is the Country. I'm
Jamie McKay. Can we banned deep obsession? Remember them cold?
That describes the weather in this country at the moment.
We're going to talk to Phil Duncan later in the
hour about the weather. I think we've got some good
news coming for you. Also on the run sheet today
Katie melm former president of Federated Farmers on the West Coast.
Cameron Bagriy on the capital gains tax? What are dog's
(00:49):
breakfast that one is? And Damian O'Connor will no doubt
have an argument over the capital gains tax. He's on
the coast today as well. But kicking off the show
is the Minister for Emergency Management, Mark Mitchell, who's a
very busy man. Mark. You've been down in the South
over the weekend having a look for yourself. I think
(01:11):
you're going to head to Canterbury today, culverd and how
bad is it down there?
Speaker 3 (01:17):
Well, I mean down south As you know, you've been
on the ground in your south. The big challenge of
course has been powered down and communications as well, so
you get the double whammy. And of course it's really
hit our rule sector and farmers hard, especially those that
are trying to milk cows, and so there's been a
big focus on animal wealth here from central government point
(01:38):
of view. From my point of view, it was just
quite simply on day one finding as many generators as
we could and getting them down on the ground. And
I just want to give a shout out to New
Zealand Defense Forces because they really stepped up and gave
us the support we needed. We had CE one thirty
hrkz finance and for Cargar with generators of power. Neet
(01:59):
those guys we can flat out to get the power restored.
I really want to acknowledge them, and especially those crews
that are out.
Speaker 4 (02:06):
On the ground.
Speaker 3 (02:06):
We stopped and spoke with some of the crews on
the ground yesterday. They are still working in really difficult conditions.
I mean, you would have seen the power of that wind,
the size of those trees that have literally been looted
out of the ground like toothpicks trying all over the place,
and just mess destruction, especially in terms of the power network.
So it is a big job getting it restored.
Speaker 2 (02:28):
And congratulations for acting quickly, getting the generators, getting the
air Force involved, getting the army involved. That's all God.
And this is a bit of a tough one, this one,
you know. I think you've given one hundred and fifty
thousand dollars average dairy farmers probably losing ten or twenty
grand at least over this event. Is that enough or
is it the government's job to give any money in
(02:50):
these situations. I know you've got your meror relief funds
and all that, but there is criticism, for instance, mark
on the front page of the ODT farmers and residents
criticize support.
Speaker 3 (03:02):
Yeah, I'm not sure why, because everyone has responded, whether
it be the local response with the volunteers that i'd
see in the eocs, whether it be our first responders,
whether it be a government response. New Zealand Defense Force
is stepping up, my own agency, NIMA have served stuff
in there, and it's primarily to support our rule sector
and our farmers. So I don't really know why or
(03:25):
how that criticism comes forward. I don't think it's fair
at all to all of those people that are doing
everything that they can to try and support them. We
understand how tough it is. I know that we're now
four or five days into this. I've been very clear
about the fact that you know there's a bit of
a human cost fatigue starts to set in and asked
(03:46):
especially those farmers or people in the rule sector that
need help, to put their hands up for help. We've
got very good wealth your teams that are inside those
eocs that can identify what the needs are and address them.
The Male Relief Fund is not designed to be substantial
financial support. It's quinetestantly simply designed to help the mayors
and the councils with immediate needs. And so you know,
(04:09):
we have approved funds to go to five of the
councils down south to be able to deal with to
gither some cash to be able to deal with those
immediate needs, and then the government agencies will work through
a process to identify what other forms of government support
needs to needs to flow in. But I'm sorry, Jamie,
I've been on the ground. I've seen the bud, sweat
(04:30):
and tears, the huge effort that is going in to
support our rural sector and our farmers and it would
be a bit it would be nice to see a
bit of acknowledgement around that.
Speaker 2 (04:38):
Yeah, fair comment. Well, look when it comes to those
the numbers around power, because that is the major issue
down there in Southland still six two hundred and fifty
customers without power, two and a half thousand in Otago,
mainly in southwest Otago because it came right through the
bottom of the country. For some of the outlying consumers,
(05:01):
this is going to be weeks before they get their
power back. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (05:06):
So Pound they have done a very good job from
day one and trying to get good communications out there.
We have done the same thing to be realistic about
the time that it's going to take to get that
network completely up and running again. Most of the towns
and urban centers they've restored power.
Speaker 4 (05:21):
That I mean.
Speaker 3 (05:22):
The challenges that I say on the ground is quite simply.
Farmers are dealing with windbreaks that have come down, trees
that have come down and damaged fences, especially boundary fences.
They've got a lot on their plate and they've got
a lot to deal with. But those trees have also
taken down their own power that are coming off the
main powers and the main power lines, and so it
does take time for the teams to be able to
(05:43):
fix both those elements of it, and I saw two
or three jobs yes, where they're working fled out to
do that. The one thing that power Net's trying to
do is sort of come up with a plan around
where the power will come on so that we have
a better idea of how to reposition and position those
generators to make sure that we are getting generators onto
the farms. We are conto the fact that that yes,
(06:06):
you're right, it's not just about milking the cows, it's
about chillers. It's about water in particular, and trying to
get the power there is to provide that support. I
think looking out having met with the Rural Trust, with
fed farmers, and with Fonterra while I was in the cargo,
you know, it's it's pretty clear that that there's going
(06:27):
to have to be some ford planning around on farm
generators and secretary power source in the event of this
type of thing happening again. And in a large part
why the farmers probably haven't turned their mind to that
is because we haven't. The area has not really ever
been hit with an event like this before.
Speaker 2 (06:45):
Just to finish on you're in Canterbury today and it's
not only Southland Southwest Otago that was hammered. We know
particularly Inland and Culvid in the Muri Valley. I think
is the geographic region they've been decimal Well.
Speaker 3 (07:01):
Yeah they have. I mean it's our really remote rural
communities that have been impacted the hardest, and that's why
everyone's tried to be very realistic and honest about the
timings in terms of the restoration of power and making
sure that we can get as much support out to
those more isolated rural communities so that they don't feel
like they're out there sitting on their own, that they
(07:22):
do feel like there's some support there for them, and
that everyone's weaking as hard as they can to make
sure that support actually gets them.
Speaker 2 (07:29):
Okay, Mark Mitchell, thank you very much for your time
today and your capacity as Minister for Emergency Management. Keep
up the good work with police as well, like what
you're doing that.
Speaker 3 (07:39):
Thank you mate. I think I'll have to tune into
the show later because I want to hear you have
that discussion with Damian O'Connor around capital gains tax.
Speaker 2 (07:47):
I promise you I won't disappoint you. See you later.
Speaker 5 (07:50):
I'm sure you won't see you Bie.
Speaker 2 (07:52):
There we go, Yes, Damien, I'm sure we'll agree to
disagree as we always do on that one. Interesting interesting
more about capital gains tax. I've got an expert on
the case today, Cameron Bagri knows a lot more about
economics than most of us. But up next, we're going
to the West Coast, two visits there today. I understand
(08:13):
Damien is over there today, so we'll catch up with
him a bit later in the hour. But up next.
Katie Milne sent me a message on Friday's show about
springback when you're chainsawing all these trees, and I know
there's got a lot of trees to be chainsawed, just
be really, really careful. So that was the catalyst for
(08:34):
me getting her on the show today. Apparently it hasn't
stopped raining on the West Coast for a couple of months.
We'll see how they're faring over there because these weather extremes.
October has been a sea of a month, can I
say that? That's what I said to Phil Duncan this morning.
And it hasn't only been affecting the Deep South. It's
right around the country. Also Phil Duncan on the weather.
(08:58):
So we've got all that to do between and the
end of the hour.
Speaker 6 (09:01):
On the country's fair, yours cool, you're willing to sacriface.
Speaker 2 (09:14):
Well, as we know, things are none too flash and
the deep South at the moment, but the rest of
the country is born the brunt of this weather as well.
On the West coast, they tell me, Katie Melon, former
president of Federated Farmers, the woman who broke the grass
ceiling becoming the first president. You're on days sixty five
of rain in a row. That must be wearing you down.
Speaker 7 (09:37):
Yeah, it is, Jamie. It's now into the second round
of wet grazing on the farm, so it's certainly tagging
its toll. And a few farms have got water that's
on paddocks like permanently now, not just not draining away
because all the water tables are so full, rivers are
full up high, lakes are high. So there's no reprieve
(09:58):
unless we get ten days of fine whether I think
right at the moment. So, yes, she's time to be
very proactive on what you're doing on farm. And I
noticed some guys that are moving some cattle off to
those who've got copious amounts of grass and Canterbury those
that do, and things like that, early coloring once a
day or sixteen hours, all those things that we know
we should be doing. And it's all about making those
(10:20):
decisions early so that you try and limit the damage
to this season. And one thing someone, an old pharma
said to me years ago, when you're having a crap season,
you'd better be having a good payout and fingers crossed,
that still holds up.
Speaker 2 (10:34):
We know there's some serious animal welfare issues around the
power being off, animals not being able to be milked, mastitis,
you name it. But adrenaline drives people through the first
two or three days of a storm or an emergency,
but people are just dog tired. There's a real human
welfare element to this as well.
Speaker 7 (10:57):
Yeah, there is, And that's always the worry when the
events are so big that they go on for so
long in the clean up phase or whatever it is,
or you or you just can't do anything in some cases,
but you're still an overdrive in your system, even though
you may not feel like you are. So that's about
communicating with people, trying and I notice sounds. It's all
(11:17):
corny and it sounds stupid, but if you can get
away for an evening meal somewhere else, or join up
with someone, get them to come around. You'll have a
pot luck whatever with a few neighbors to try and
just have someone else to talk to about it, because
sometimes you find actually it just raises your spirits or weather,
and it is difficult when you're under the pump. But
(11:38):
it's the little things that make a difference to make
you think, well, okay, I can get through this. We
know that somen's going to shine again, or the wine's
going to stop blowing, or the snow's going to stop falling,
and at least things will be on a rising plane.
Probably got a bit of firewood around that I'm going
to get for free that I didn't intend on having.
But yeah, it's keeping communicating and reaching out to the
(11:59):
odd person. Just a phone call when you're driving home
to wherever the other part of the farm. Just pick
it up and heavy y act to someone. There's been
a bit of that going on over here, and it's
been really good just to have someone ring up and
go see, I see you're in a bit of shit situation. Yeah,
how's it going what do you need a hand or whatever.
Even if you don't need a hand and say Nana,
(12:20):
it's still nice to know that people realize that we're
on the same boat, or you might be the worst
one off and people are willing to reach out. So
ring it aver have a chat.
Speaker 2 (12:29):
Yeah, fair enough. Hey have you had a chant? Quick chance.
The other big story today is to look at our
Labour's proposed capital gains tax. I'm calling it the Clayton's CGT,
the capital gains tax you have when you're not really
having one. I think this is just an exercise in
dipping your toe into the water of seeing how a
capital gains tax will go. But the fact that they're
(12:51):
going to use the money for free doctor visits fine
for those who need it, But there's a lot of
people a bit like the winter energy payments Katie, who
don't need a free doctor's visit.
Speaker 7 (13:02):
Exactly a lot. When I do need a doctor's visit
in the future, I'm happy to take it, but actually
I'm happy to pay for it. I can afford it,
and there'll be different people at different levels, But so
offering it up to everybody three free visits is just stupid.
Speaker 4 (13:19):
There's lots of.
Speaker 7 (13:19):
People who don't go at all because they don't need
to and we know it's there and we need it.
The other side to that is you don't want to
overload the system just putting it in there that I
can go down there for fifteen minutes or half an
hour or whatever and have a chat to a doctor,
just when there's people who need it. You're just cluttering
up the books too. What is that going to do
to stats? I don't know what the ulterior motive really is,
(13:40):
apart from that everybody should be even under socialist policies,
but it just doesn't make any sense and it does
show you the same old, same mold. But sorry to
say it that government departments are not the best or
governments in general are not great at spending other people's money.
They really don't put it to the best productive use,
which is what we need right now more than anything,
(14:02):
because the country needs expert dollars and money coming in
that's not borrowed or printed, and this sort of policy
isn't going to do it.
Speaker 2 (14:11):
Well, you talk a lot of sense. Have you ever
thought of going to Wellington? Hold that thought, Katie Meln,
You're too valuable on the farm. Hey, thanks for some
of your time and I hope you get a bit
of a break in the weather. We'll talk to Phil
Duncan about that. See if we can do something for you.
Speaker 7 (14:26):
Yeah, you order it up for us, that'd be great.
Speaker 2 (14:29):
I'm a very best Thank you, Katie. Are some of
your feedback coming in? How many years of ten dollars
payouts does it take till you can afford your own
generator from Tomo? And here's another one. This is a
bit of a recurring theme. I agree with them and
it'ster very unfair and unnecessary to be criticizing how people
(14:51):
are making a huge effort. No one's arguing about that,
and everyone making a huge effort. I'm a dairy farmer
and have my own generator. How many dairy farmers have
one hundred k bot the shed and no generator are
huge thanks to all the people helping out. And that
is excuse me from Stephen. Another one, why don't moaning
farmers in the ODT today organize themselves? If milk is
(15:14):
you're in, come invest in a generator instead of waiting
for the government to do it. And one more, Hey, Jamie,
I do feel the farmers down south for the farmers
down south. Whoever, the winter spring and Northland couldn't be better.
After a good electrical storm last night fifty five mills.
(15:34):
It's a warm twenty one degrees here at the moment.
That's from Neville. He's wishing the southern farmers all the best. Well,
you need some luck upper Northland as well. You deserve
it as well. You've certainly had your climatic changes. Look,
i'd have to say I agree. I think this is
just like it's almost a once in a lifetime situation
in terms of the power being off down south. Both
(15:56):
Michelle and myself were down there in the weekend having
a lock. We'll discuss that at Rural News time. But
I think it would be fair to say some farmers,
probably including the farm I'm involved with, were underprepared. I
think every farmer probably needs their own generator. I think
there'll be a few sales of those in the weeks
(16:18):
and months ahead. Up next, we have heard from Katie
Milne about the Clayton CGT Capital Gains tax. I'm going
to talk to a man who's an expert in the field,
Cameron Baghri.
Speaker 1 (16:40):
Sushi Fly.
Speaker 2 (16:48):
He has one of the sharpest minds, economic minds in
the country, Cameron Bagri and dependent economists. What did you
make of as I'm describing at Cameron, the Clayton's sig,
the capital gains tax when you're not really having one.
Speaker 5 (17:04):
Well, yeah, glass are full. They turned the dial slightly
towards broadening the tax base, and it's in the form
of a capital gains tax, not a wealth tax. I
fact that it's a positive side, but the guess of
your glass up entre. But they haven't turned the dial
too much. And this is easy you call it the
Clayton's tax. It's not going to bring in too much money.
(17:24):
I think the estimates I've seen is it might bring
in two point four to two point five bnion over
a ten year period. So it's going to help to
broaden the tax base. But I guess what's notable is it?
Speaker 4 (17:34):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (17:34):
What's out as opposed to what's in.
Speaker 2 (17:36):
Absolutely everything's out. There's hardly anything in. This is just
having a crack at people who are investing in residential
property or commercial property. But the different and Batchers, Yeah,
of course quite rightly. The family home is exempt. But
the farmers would have to be pleased with this one
it's not applying to farms, it's not applying to keyw
(17:57):
saver shares, business assets inheritance, even your personal items like cars, boats,
art and furniture. So I just reckon it's an exercise
in flying a kite or dipping your toe into broadening
the tax base. That's kind of it. Electorally, it's palatable,
but it's a nonsense. It's a nonsense that people like
(18:20):
you and me are going to get three three doctors
visits a year out of this.
Speaker 5 (18:25):
Well, I think that's the real nuts side of this.
In regard to lock you. They've raised a little bit
of money where they're going to get spend that money.
They're going to spend that money to as healthcare, which
is edible. Well, but everybody's going to get the benefit. Yeah,
I'm not a believer in that sort of stuff, Jamie.
There's no reason people like you, people like me should
(18:46):
get more subsidized healthcare. If you're going to take money
off people in the form of a careful against tax,
let's make sure that we read put that money into
those areas of the economy or those areas of society
that really need it.
Speaker 2 (18:57):
Let's talk about the official straight We've got another review
coming up, I think late November. We're sitting at two
and a half. It looked odds on until those inflation
numbers came out that we would get down to maybe
two percent. But now the markets or the jury's out,
isn't it. Is it going to be two point twenty
five the end spot or is it going to be
(19:18):
two because inflation is still running at three?
Speaker 5 (19:22):
Yeah, or headline inflation is so dark. If we strip
out the likes of administrative charges, which is local authorities,
central government sort of charges, inflation's a lot more contained.
The core inflation measures look like they're running around two
and a half, So the markets that are hedging its
bets and the OCA might go to two, might go
to two point two five. So we're at two point
(19:43):
five at the moment, So we're within spitting distance of
where the market thinks the CROFT is going to be.
So we're getting towards what's called the glide path or
monetary policy near the endpoint, and the Reserve Bank just
needs to be a little bit careful here because this economy,
I still think has got a lot of latent underlying
inflation with pressure out there, and it looks like there's
(20:05):
a big bow wave of inflation or cost increases that
people want to pass on into price increases. Soon if
we start to see things pack up. So what's the
space you have? The reserve banks obviously decided to go
big with the fifty that they need to go fifty
in mine might know they've done it, will take it.
Maybe we get one more, and we get one more.
(20:27):
I think it might be one and dow.
Speaker 2 (20:29):
Is there exchange rate getting too soft?
Speaker 3 (20:32):
Or is it?
Speaker 2 (20:33):
And if it is, is there anything we can do
about it? The answer is probably no. To the second question, well.
Speaker 5 (20:39):
I guess yeah, we'll obviously definition are too soft because
the currency is just a relative price variable. Yeah, Jamie,
that shifts the playing field from exporters to imports. You know,
when the currency is low, exporters win, importers lose. When
the current is high, exporters lose and importers win. If
you look at fair venue for the New Zealand dollar
(21:00):
against the green bath, I think it's around sixty five cents.
We're around fifty seven to fifty eight. So we're in
that export friendly zone and we need that export friendly
sort of number at the moment because we had a
horrific current account and deficit. We had a completely unbalanced
economies that lower currency in combination with higher currency with
high commodity prices. As engineering, what we cause a quality
(21:22):
upturn as oppose the one led by inferior quality in
the form of an a runaway Aukland property market. So
it's not great if you want a holiday overseas, but
we need that currency at the moment and an export
friendly zone. And it's been interesting to see if LAP
just we're starting to nudge down against the Australian dollar
as well. We've spent an awful lot of time up
(21:43):
there around ninety five cents, and now with that down
below ninety that's still probably a little bit on the
expensive side to me, but it's starting to move towards
being a more export friendly number if you're pushing products
into the Australian market.
Speaker 2 (21:58):
Yes, no question to finish going back to where we started.
Does New Zealand need to broaden the tax base with
the capital gains tax?
Speaker 5 (22:08):
Yes, rather came through a capital gains tax regime as
opposed to some of the nutty stuff in the former
Wealth taxes.
Speaker 2 (22:17):
Cameron Bagriy, thanks as always, for your time on the country.
Appreciate it for twenty six away from one always good
value Cameron Baggery some of your feedback on their text
line five double nine Jamie. Once c GT push us
through then taxing everything will apply. I bet. Another one said,
(22:41):
apparently generators are a plenty around North Canterbury. I pick
up the bums from the earthquakes a few years back.
I may have it may have ensured that. Sorry, but
of a type over there the wind has given the
same kick up the bomb for Southland as I agree
with the text of pointing out about one hundred thousand
(23:02):
dollars boat in the shed but no generator. Here's another
one from Southern Southland. Good Jamie. Four hundred and thirteen
mills in the last sixty days. Where's it gone there?
It is there and Southern south and we often used
generators to run our electric fence system because of the
power outages. Look, Southland had a terrible spring last year
(23:22):
and they thought nothing could be worse. I think mother
nature might have outdone itself. Fell Duncan on that later
in the hour. Up next Michelle with the latest and
rural news. We'll have a look at sports news for
you looking forward to debating slash no doubt arguing capital
gains tax with Jamie and O'Connor too before the end
of the hour, Welcome back to the country and hello
(23:59):
to the nineteen nineties. What is there anything more nineteen
nineties than Deep Obsession late nineties. I think it was
True BLUs, maybe true Bliss. Yeah, well, the same sort
of era. And well we always debate whether the Deep
Obsession girls were sisters. I don't know that they were,
but anyhow, we've got to do the rural news.
Speaker 1 (24:16):
The country's world news with Coup Cadet, New Zealand's leading
right on lawn Bow brand. Visit steel Ford dot co
dot NZM for your locals, Dougust.
Speaker 2 (24:25):
So you were Ticky touring Michelle Watt over the long
weekend through into central Otago. You didn't drive. You didn't
drive through Bellcluther by any chance, did you your old
home patch. No.
Speaker 8 (24:37):
We went through Lawrence though, which was one of the
hardest areas with their power out until.
Speaker 2 (24:43):
The other day, I think, yeah, Okay, Well in Bellcluther, interestingly,
or there was on Sunday when I went down to
see what was happening in South and there's still two
overturned vehicles just on the north side of Bellcluther. Look
on that ridge. It's windy enough on a semi calm day,
let alone when that storm came through so terrible. What
were your observations on the weather.
Speaker 8 (25:03):
Some bits it looked like I hadn't been through anything,
and other bits it had.
Speaker 2 (25:06):
It'll be bit closer to that.
Speaker 8 (25:09):
Waving at me. I've got to get us to your
sign language in this place.
Speaker 2 (25:12):
Well I was. I could have given you another gesture,
but that might have been a bit rude, that one
just talking.
Speaker 8 (25:18):
To so Lawrence, it looked like it's crazy. It's just
like all around the country. Really, some parts look like
a tornado had been through. Other parts look like it
had been well left alone. It was insane and Lawrence
was hit incredibly hard. They had no water, no power,
nothing for quite a long time.
Speaker 2 (25:33):
Yeah, areas are central and western South and being badly hit.
The farm that I'm involved and still and that's an
hotel towel West and South and still haven't got the
power on there. What what were those numbers? Six thousan
two hundred and fifty customers in Southland, two and a
half thousand in Otago, mainly in Southwest Otago still yet
(25:54):
to get the power on, so it has been tough,
indeed it has.
Speaker 8 (25:59):
It'll be interesting thing. I was talking to you about
this before, about the investment Bruce tax incentive that was
announced in the budget. How many farmers will take advantage
of that now to go get a generator.
Speaker 2 (26:11):
I wouldn't mind being the business of selling generators at
the moment because this has been a shot across the
bows and it probably has been a once in a
lifetime event in terms of the power. But it won't
be another lifetime until we get the same sort of
thing any how. The climate changed and Aisles will beyond
to me, I better get onto sports news.
Speaker 1 (26:30):
Sport with AFCO. Visit them online at AFCO dot co
dot nz.
Speaker 2 (26:34):
Yes that's you, Rooks ex professional. I don't want that.
That's the boring bulletin. I had to look at that
before I'm going to go to the twelve o'clock one.
The All Blacks are seeking. Jordi Barrett's thoughts ahead of
Sunday's first Northern Hemisphere Rugby Tour test against Ireland and Chicago.
Good viewing time too, I think is it like nine
o'clock in the morning or something like that. The midfield
(26:56):
has spend a seven month sabbatical with the Irish club
Leinster before turning to New Zealand in July. Coach Scott
Robertson says Barrett's excursion has sharpened his knowledge of the game.
It certainly sharpened him as well. He's played very well
this season as Jordie and Phoenix defender Tim Payne has
suffered a broken collar bone during the home A league
(27:17):
win over the Roar. The length of his recovery is uncertain,
but he'll miss the All Whites Internationals next month. Did
I play the sports liner? I did? I think I
need to get tested for early on set here. Look,
there's so much happening in the studio because I'm all
fizzed up. That's why, Michelle, it's time to get the
gloves off. Up next. Damian O'Connor on a capital gains tax.
(27:44):
You've already heard from Katie Millner on the Coast, We're
going there again. Yes, he's making a rare appearance in
his old electorate. Damien O'Connor list MP for the Coast
these days, domiciled and Dunedin. Damien I know I'm going
to get a bite from you. But your capital gains
tax is, let's face it, are Clayton's capital gains tax,
the tax you have when you're not really having one.
(28:05):
What a week last effort that.
Speaker 5 (28:06):
Was cure it, Jamie, I do want more? I mean
I you know, it's an interesting line to take from you.
I guess if you have invested, and no doubt you
have in four or five properties, it is really unproductive. Yes,
we need houses in our country, but actually it's not
a productive part of our economy. And so if you
(28:28):
make a capital gain, then you should pay some tax
on that, because if you go out and work hard
day to day, you pay tax on that. So this
is about rebalancing where we should invest into the future.
And it's not retrospective.
Speaker 9 (28:40):
You know.
Speaker 5 (28:40):
We're people who have buy to buy the you know,
the rules of the day and the paradigm that we've
had around property. But that should change to create a
more productive economy. That's what we need to do.
Speaker 2 (28:51):
The trouble is you're only dipping your toes in there.
This is this is just a token effort and to
make things worse, Damian O'Connor, you're going to spend the
money giving people like me and you a free doctors visit.
We don't need it. What a waste of money. Why
don't you target the health spending.
Speaker 5 (29:09):
Back to the tax issue. If we'd done more, you
would have criticized us. This is a sensible step to
send a message that we need to encourage people to
invest in productive assets, and you know farming. For the
most part, farm assets are productive, yused. There has been
speculation on capital gains, but mostly the price you pay
(29:30):
for a farm should be based on its productive returns.
That's certainly what I got told in the nineteen eighties
when we took the subsidies off. I think we've seen
a shift from that. But if we can get back
to that, that will be good invest in businesses where
we get some real returns. So I think we've got
the capital gains tax proposal about right at this point,
given that no one has been brave enough to do this.
Speaker 2 (29:51):
Yeah, and I get that, Damien, but you're going to
generate next to nothing. Oggerall the boomers. The boomers have
already captured and thanked all the capital gains.
Speaker 5 (30:02):
Maybe, so you're saying we should have done a long
time ago.
Speaker 2 (30:05):
Is that right, Let's cut to the chase here. You're
just softening us up. Okay, this is a very mild
entry into a capital gains tax. It might be enough
not to put people off politically, maybe get your voted in.
God help us then the party and marrying the Greens
are running the country with you. This is just a
forerunner of a much harder capital gains tax, or worse,
(30:25):
a wealth tax.
Speaker 5 (30:27):
If there is any any change, people will hit the
chance to vote on it. I'm sure, and I'm sure
that my boss will have told the country that let's
come back to under this government, we've basically got a
country that is unfair, right, it's unsustainable, unproductive, and we've
got to change it. And tax is the way that
(30:48):
we can make some adjustments there to hit us in
the right direction.
Speaker 2 (30:52):
Didn't the housing bubble rarely take off under you lot
under COVID when you gave exactly the right incentives and
messages to the economy.
Speaker 5 (31:03):
So, Jamie, were you and all people across business had
their hand out asking for more, and the national opposition
crying out for more to be given to business, for
wage subsidies, for business assistance. All of those billions of
dollars that people were quite happy to take and put
in their pockets, some of whom didn't need it, and
(31:24):
now complain about the fact that that money went around
in the economy and because there was a shortage of
houses at pushed up prices. Yes, we know that they've
pushed it up. That hasn't helped, But actually a lot
of that money was demanded and called for by people
who had their hands out, sometimes did not needing it. Look,
COVID was a terrible situation. I don't think anyone would
(31:45):
have wished it upon the world or upon our economy.
We're moving on from that and making some changes to
ensure that actually we do get investment in the right areas.
We don't get the speculation that we've seen particular cross
housing and that we make houses is more affordable for
young Kiwis Damien.
Speaker 2 (32:02):
I wake up in the middle of the night in
a cold sweat, worrying about what New Zealand and the
economy will be like. If it's a party, Marie and
the greenskit anywhere near the treasury benches, What can you
say to soothe my worries?
Speaker 5 (32:17):
That's a ridiculous thing. We'll stay awake, Jamie and worry
about other things. I'd suggest to you it might be
more about the Atlas Group and its effect through the
APT Party and some of it coming through New Zealand
first as well. New Zealand First seems to have now
made New Zealand last. It's happy to see things sold
off to anyone who wants to come in with a big,
fat checkbook. We run the risk of selling off our
(32:40):
economy under the Coalition government at the moment and all
the components in it. And you had I went to
the EU thing there you had Minister what's saying, come
in invest in our economy. We've got some companies here
than monopolistic. He used that word monopolistic because and it's
a great place to invest. Got to change that to
(33:01):
make sure that it's actually a more affordable country for
most people. And so we've got to deal with the supermarkets,
We've got to deal with the el tricity companies. We've
got to deal with those monopoly players to bring prices
in the cost of living down.
Speaker 2 (33:14):
At least I'll get a sun tan On Adelaide if
you do one, Damien, because that's where I'll be spending
the next three years. Thank you very much. Thank you
very much for your.
Speaker 5 (33:23):
Time, Jamie. If that's what you want to do, then
good riddance to you. There's certainly a lot thousands and
thousands of Kiwis leaving now because of their coalition government.
So if you're the only one that goes when we
get in, then we'll get off.
Speaker 2 (33:36):
Thanks for your time. Has always enjoyed the argument.
Speaker 9 (33:39):
Thank you, Jamie Weather on the country with farmlands with
clothing to keep you cool, dry and protected this summer.
Speaker 2 (33:57):
Okay, Phil Duncan wraps the country on a Tuesday, normally
on a Monday long weekend. I know most farmers didn't
get a break. Look, I'm not going to concentrate on
the weather we've had that's in the rare vision mirror
now or even for the next day or so. What
I want to concentrate on, Phil Duncan, if we can,
is the bigger picture, what's in front of us. Because
(34:18):
I think you've got some good news for our good
mate Blocker down there in Southland, arable farmer who says
that this spring in Southland, believe it or not, is
worse than the last one.
Speaker 4 (34:28):
Yeah, give me Jamie it's it's been a rough, rough
spring for Southland and many parts of the country. But
you're right. Going into the end of this week thirty
first of October Friday, we've still got a southwesterly flow
over the country, but a big high pressure zone is
moving in and for November first, there'll be a high
pressure zone over the entire country and it's a big one.
(34:49):
It's going to hang around for Sunday and Monday as well,
with light winds and dry skies for the most part anyway,
and a complete change to what we've been in for
the last couple of months.
Speaker 2 (35:00):
Now, that's wonderful news, absolutely be welcomed. But with the
big high setting over us and all the snow that's
on in the country, does that bring frost into play,
especially for some of our horticulture industry.
Speaker 4 (35:11):
Frost and more likely tonight and tomorrow night. And as
we go through the week, the air flow warms up
and comes further out of the Tasman Australia area and
then over the weekend, but of a subtropical lean to
it going into Sunday and Monday for some areas both
top and bottom of the country. So it's going to
warm up. I don't see frost has been a real
problem this weekend, although we will double to get it
(35:32):
as we go through, so keep up to date with
our frost mats that we've got. We're to watch, but
the forecast does look as though it's warming up. There
are bigger high pressure zones in the next to November.
Not done with the Southern Ocean cold fronts and wind,
but we're going to have much more breathing space going
into the next month with these highs at times giving
(35:52):
us set or weather and also pushing away that polar
boundary to give us warmer afloats.
Speaker 2 (35:57):
Hey, Phil Duncan, thank you very much for your time
to go. There's a wee bit of feedback in here.
I want to get in before the end of the hour.
Someone having a crack at me over my pronunciation of Maori.
Sorry about that one, also saying I don't want to
be a smart ass, but you should have spent more
time focusing on buying a generator rather than leaving Jacindra
and the Greens live rent free in your head. Well,
(36:19):
they haven't really done that. And I got a nice
text from someone saying Damien was being disrespectful to me
when he said good riddance to you and I. You know, Damien,
it's the gloves always come off. There's no malice meant
in this comment, or at least I don't think there
is sea tomorrow.
Speaker 5 (36:35):
We done let It's no catch all.
Speaker 1 (36:39):
The latest from the land, It's the Country Podcast with
Jamie McKay. Thanks to Brents, the starkest of the leading
agriculture brands,
Catch all the latest from the land. It's The Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to friend you're specialist in
John Deer construction equipment.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
Goody, good afternoon, New Zealand. This is the Country. I'm
Jamie McKay. Can we banned deep obsession? Remember them cold?
That describes the weather in this country at the moment.
We're going to talk to Phil Duncan later in the
hour about the weather. I think we've got some good
news coming for you. Also on the run sheet today
Katie melm former president of Federated Farmers on the West Coast.
Cameron Bagriy on the capital gains tax? What are dog's
(00:49):
breakfast that one is? And Damian O'Connor will no doubt
have an argument over the capital gains tax. He's on
the coast today as well. But kicking off the show
is the Minister for Emergency Management, Mark Mitchell, who's a
very busy man. Mark. You've been down in the South
over the weekend having a look for yourself. I think
(01:11):
you're going to head to Canterbury today, culverd and how
bad is it down there?
Speaker 3 (01:17):
Well, I mean down south As you know, you've been
on the ground in your south. The big challenge of
course has been powered down and communications as well, so
you get the double whammy. And of course it's really
hit our rule sector and farmers hard, especially those that
are trying to milk cows, and so there's been a
big focus on animal wealth here from central government point
(01:38):
of view. From my point of view, it was just
quite simply on day one finding as many generators as
we could and getting them down on the ground. And
I just want to give a shout out to New
Zealand Defense Forces because they really stepped up and gave
us the support we needed. We had CE one thirty
hrkz finance and for Cargar with generators of power. Neet
(01:59):
those guys we can flat out to get the power restored.
I really want to acknowledge them, and especially those crews
that are out.
Speaker 4 (02:06):
On the ground.
Speaker 3 (02:06):
We stopped and spoke with some of the crews on
the ground yesterday. They are still working in really difficult conditions.
I mean, you would have seen the power of that wind,
the size of those trees that have literally been looted
out of the ground like toothpicks trying all over the place,
and just mess destruction, especially in terms of the power network.
So it is a big job getting it restored.
Speaker 2 (02:28):
And congratulations for acting quickly, getting the generators, getting the
air Force involved, getting the army involved. That's all God.
And this is a bit of a tough one, this one,
you know. I think you've given one hundred and fifty
thousand dollars average dairy farmers probably losing ten or twenty
grand at least over this event. Is that enough or
is it the government's job to give any money in
(02:50):
these situations. I know you've got your meror relief funds
and all that, but there is criticism, for instance, mark
on the front page of the ODT farmers and residents
criticize support.
Speaker 3 (03:02):
Yeah, I'm not sure why, because everyone has responded, whether
it be the local response with the volunteers that i'd
see in the eocs, whether it be our first responders,
whether it be a government response. New Zealand Defense Force
is stepping up, my own agency, NIMA have served stuff
in there, and it's primarily to support our rule sector
and our farmers. So I don't really know why or
(03:25):
how that criticism comes forward. I don't think it's fair
at all to all of those people that are doing
everything that they can to try and support them. We
understand how tough it is. I know that we're now
four or five days into this. I've been very clear
about the fact that you know there's a bit of
a human cost fatigue starts to set in and asked
(03:46):
especially those farmers or people in the rule sector that
need help, to put their hands up for help. We've
got very good wealth your teams that are inside those
eocs that can identify what the needs are and address them.
The Male Relief Fund is not designed to be substantial
financial support. It's quinetestantly simply designed to help the mayors
and the councils with immediate needs. And so you know,
(04:09):
we have approved funds to go to five of the
councils down south to be able to deal with to
gither some cash to be able to deal with those
immediate needs, and then the government agencies will work through
a process to identify what other forms of government support
needs to needs to flow in. But I'm sorry, Jamie,
I've been on the ground. I've seen the bud, sweat
(04:30):
and tears, the huge effort that is going in to
support our rural sector and our farmers and it would
be a bit it would be nice to see a
bit of acknowledgement around that.
Speaker 2 (04:38):
Yeah, fair comment. Well, look when it comes to those
the numbers around power, because that is the major issue
down there in Southland still six two hundred and fifty
customers without power, two and a half thousand in Otago,
mainly in southwest Otago because it came right through the
bottom of the country. For some of the outlying consumers,
(05:01):
this is going to be weeks before they get their
power back. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (05:06):
So Pound they have done a very good job from
day one and trying to get good communications out there.
We have done the same thing to be realistic about
the time that it's going to take to get that
network completely up and running again. Most of the towns
and urban centers they've restored power.
Speaker 4 (05:21):
That I mean.
Speaker 3 (05:22):
The challenges that I say on the ground is quite simply.
Farmers are dealing with windbreaks that have come down, trees
that have come down and damaged fences, especially boundary fences.
They've got a lot on their plate and they've got
a lot to deal with. But those trees have also
taken down their own power that are coming off the
main powers and the main power lines, and so it
does take time for the teams to be able to
(05:43):
fix both those elements of it, and I saw two
or three jobs yes, where they're working fled out to
do that. The one thing that power Net's trying to
do is sort of come up with a plan around
where the power will come on so that we have
a better idea of how to reposition and position those
generators to make sure that we are getting generators onto
the farms. We are conto the fact that that yes,
(06:06):
you're right, it's not just about milking the cows, it's
about chillers. It's about water in particular, and trying to
get the power there is to provide that support. I
think looking out having met with the Rural Trust, with
fed farmers, and with Fonterra while I was in the cargo,
you know, it's it's pretty clear that that there's going
(06:27):
to have to be some ford planning around on farm
generators and secretary power source in the event of this
type of thing happening again. And in a large part
why the farmers probably haven't turned their mind to that
is because we haven't. The area has not really ever
been hit with an event like this before.
Speaker 2 (06:45):
Just to finish on you're in Canterbury today and it's
not only Southland Southwest Otago that was hammered. We know
particularly Inland and Culvid in the Muri Valley. I think
is the geographic region they've been decimal Well.
Speaker 3 (07:01):
Yeah they have. I mean it's our really remote rural
communities that have been impacted the hardest, and that's why
everyone's tried to be very realistic and honest about the
timings in terms of the restoration of power and making
sure that we can get as much support out to
those more isolated rural communities so that they don't feel
like they're out there sitting on their own, that they
(07:22):
do feel like there's some support there for them, and
that everyone's weaking as hard as they can to make
sure that support actually gets them.
Speaker 2 (07:29):
Okay, Mark Mitchell, thank you very much for your time
today and your capacity as Minister for Emergency Management. Keep
up the good work with police as well, like what
you're doing that.
Speaker 3 (07:39):
Thank you mate. I think I'll have to tune into
the show later because I want to hear you have
that discussion with Damian O'Connor around capital gains tax.
Speaker 2 (07:47):
I promise you I won't disappoint you. See you later.
Speaker 5 (07:50):
I'm sure you won't see you Bie.
Speaker 2 (07:52):
There we go, Yes, Damien, I'm sure we'll agree to
disagree as we always do on that one. Interesting interesting
more about capital gains tax. I've got an expert on
the case today, Cameron Bagri knows a lot more about
economics than most of us. But up next, we're going
to the West Coast, two visits there today. I understand
(08:13):
Damien is over there today, so we'll catch up with
him a bit later in the hour. But up next.
Katie Milne sent me a message on Friday's show about
springback when you're chainsawing all these trees, and I know
there's got a lot of trees to be chainsawed, just
be really, really careful. So that was the catalyst for
(08:34):
me getting her on the show today. Apparently it hasn't
stopped raining on the West Coast for a couple of months.
We'll see how they're faring over there because these weather extremes.
October has been a sea of a month, can I
say that? That's what I said to Phil Duncan this morning.
And it hasn't only been affecting the Deep South. It's
right around the country. Also Phil Duncan on the weather.
(08:58):
So we've got all that to do between and the
end of the hour.
Speaker 6 (09:01):
On the country's fair, yours cool, you're willing to sacriface.
Speaker 2 (09:14):
Well, as we know, things are none too flash and
the deep South at the moment, but the rest of
the country is born the brunt of this weather as well.
On the West coast, they tell me, Katie Melon, former
president of Federated Farmers, the woman who broke the grass
ceiling becoming the first president. You're on days sixty five
of rain in a row. That must be wearing you down.
Speaker 7 (09:37):
Yeah, it is, Jamie. It's now into the second round
of wet grazing on the farm, so it's certainly tagging
its toll. And a few farms have got water that's
on paddocks like permanently now, not just not draining away
because all the water tables are so full, rivers are
full up high, lakes are high. So there's no reprieve
(09:58):
unless we get ten days of fine whether I think
right at the moment. So, yes, she's time to be
very proactive on what you're doing on farm. And I
noticed some guys that are moving some cattle off to
those who've got copious amounts of grass and Canterbury those
that do, and things like that, early coloring once a
day or sixteen hours, all those things that we know
we should be doing. And it's all about making those
(10:20):
decisions early so that you try and limit the damage
to this season. And one thing someone, an old pharma
said to me years ago, when you're having a crap season,
you'd better be having a good payout and fingers crossed,
that still holds up.
Speaker 2 (10:34):
We know there's some serious animal welfare issues around the
power being off, animals not being able to be milked, mastitis,
you name it. But adrenaline drives people through the first
two or three days of a storm or an emergency,
but people are just dog tired. There's a real human
welfare element to this as well.
Speaker 7 (10:57):
Yeah, there is, And that's always the worry when the
events are so big that they go on for so
long in the clean up phase or whatever it is,
or you or you just can't do anything in some cases,
but you're still an overdrive in your system, even though
you may not feel like you are. So that's about
communicating with people, trying and I notice sounds. It's all
(11:17):
corny and it sounds stupid, but if you can get
away for an evening meal somewhere else, or join up
with someone, get them to come around. You'll have a
pot luck whatever with a few neighbors to try and
just have someone else to talk to about it, because
sometimes you find actually it just raises your spirits or weather,
and it is difficult when you're under the pump. But
(11:38):
it's the little things that make a difference to make
you think, well, okay, I can get through this. We
know that somen's going to shine again, or the wine's
going to stop blowing, or the snow's going to stop falling,
and at least things will be on a rising plane.
Probably got a bit of firewood around that I'm going
to get for free that I didn't intend on having.
But yeah, it's keeping communicating and reaching out to the
(11:59):
odd person. Just a phone call when you're driving home
to wherever the other part of the farm. Just pick
it up and heavy y act to someone. There's been
a bit of that going on over here, and it's
been really good just to have someone ring up and
go see, I see you're in a bit of shit situation. Yeah,
how's it going what do you need a hand or whatever.
Even if you don't need a hand and say Nana,
(12:20):
it's still nice to know that people realize that we're
on the same boat, or you might be the worst
one off and people are willing to reach out. So
ring it aver have a chat.
Speaker 2 (12:29):
Yeah, fair enough. Hey have you had a chant? Quick chance.
The other big story today is to look at our
Labour's proposed capital gains tax. I'm calling it the Clayton's CGT,
the capital gains tax you have when you're not really
having one. I think this is just an exercise in
dipping your toe into the water of seeing how a
capital gains tax will go. But the fact that they're
(12:51):
going to use the money for free doctor visits fine
for those who need it, But there's a lot of
people a bit like the winter energy payments Katie, who
don't need a free doctor's visit.
Speaker 7 (13:02):
Exactly a lot. When I do need a doctor's visit
in the future, I'm happy to take it, but actually
I'm happy to pay for it. I can afford it,
and there'll be different people at different levels, But so
offering it up to everybody three free visits is just stupid.
Speaker 4 (13:19):
There's lots of.
Speaker 7 (13:19):
People who don't go at all because they don't need
to and we know it's there and we need it.
The other side to that is you don't want to
overload the system just putting it in there that I
can go down there for fifteen minutes or half an
hour or whatever and have a chat to a doctor,
just when there's people who need it. You're just cluttering
up the books too. What is that going to do
to stats? I don't know what the ulterior motive really is,
(13:40):
apart from that everybody should be even under socialist policies,
but it just doesn't make any sense and it does
show you the same old, same mold. But sorry to
say it that government departments are not the best or
governments in general are not great at spending other people's money.
They really don't put it to the best productive use,
which is what we need right now more than anything,
(14:02):
because the country needs expert dollars and money coming in
that's not borrowed or printed, and this sort of policy
isn't going to do it.
Speaker 2 (14:11):
Well, you talk a lot of sense. Have you ever
thought of going to Wellington? Hold that thought, Katie Meln,
You're too valuable on the farm. Hey, thanks for some
of your time and I hope you get a bit
of a break in the weather. We'll talk to Phil
Duncan about that. See if we can do something for you.
Speaker 7 (14:26):
Yeah, you order it up for us, that'd be great.
Speaker 2 (14:29):
I'm a very best Thank you, Katie. Are some of
your feedback coming in? How many years of ten dollars
payouts does it take till you can afford your own
generator from Tomo? And here's another one. This is a
bit of a recurring theme. I agree with them and
it'ster very unfair and unnecessary to be criticizing how people
(14:51):
are making a huge effort. No one's arguing about that,
and everyone making a huge effort. I'm a dairy farmer
and have my own generator. How many dairy farmers have
one hundred k bot the shed and no generator are
huge thanks to all the people helping out. And that
is excuse me from Stephen. Another one, why don't moaning
farmers in the ODT today organize themselves? If milk is
(15:14):
you're in, come invest in a generator instead of waiting
for the government to do it. And one more, Hey, Jamie,
I do feel the farmers down south for the farmers
down south. Whoever, the winter spring and Northland couldn't be better.
After a good electrical storm last night fifty five mills.
(15:34):
It's a warm twenty one degrees here at the moment.
That's from Neville. He's wishing the southern farmers all the best. Well,
you need some luck upper Northland as well. You deserve
it as well. You've certainly had your climatic changes. Look,
i'd have to say I agree. I think this is
just like it's almost a once in a lifetime situation
in terms of the power being off down south. Both
(15:56):
Michelle and myself were down there in the weekend having
a lock. We'll discuss that at Rural News time. But
I think it would be fair to say some farmers,
probably including the farm I'm involved with, were underprepared. I
think every farmer probably needs their own generator. I think
there'll be a few sales of those in the weeks
(16:18):
and months ahead. Up next, we have heard from Katie
Milne about the Clayton CGT Capital Gains tax. I'm going
to talk to a man who's an expert in the field,
Cameron Baghri.
Speaker 1 (16:40):
Sushi Fly.
Speaker 2 (16:48):
He has one of the sharpest minds, economic minds in
the country, Cameron Bagri and dependent economists. What did you
make of as I'm describing at Cameron, the Clayton's sig,
the capital gains tax when you're not really having one.
Speaker 5 (17:04):
Well, yeah, glass are full. They turned the dial slightly
towards broadening the tax base, and it's in the form
of a capital gains tax, not a wealth tax. I
fact that it's a positive side, but the guess of
your glass up entre. But they haven't turned the dial
too much. And this is easy you call it the
Clayton's tax. It's not going to bring in too much money.
(17:24):
I think the estimates I've seen is it might bring
in two point four to two point five bnion over
a ten year period. So it's going to help to
broaden the tax base. But I guess what's notable is it?
Speaker 4 (17:34):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (17:34):
What's out as opposed to what's in.
Speaker 2 (17:36):
Absolutely everything's out. There's hardly anything in. This is just
having a crack at people who are investing in residential
property or commercial property. But the different and Batchers, Yeah,
of course quite rightly. The family home is exempt. But
the farmers would have to be pleased with this one
it's not applying to farms, it's not applying to keyw
(17:57):
saver shares, business assets inheritance, even your personal items like cars, boats,
art and furniture. So I just reckon it's an exercise
in flying a kite or dipping your toe into broadening
the tax base. That's kind of it. Electorally, it's palatable,
but it's a nonsense. It's a nonsense that people like
(18:20):
you and me are going to get three three doctors
visits a year out of this.
Speaker 5 (18:25):
Well, I think that's the real nuts side of this.
In regard to lock you. They've raised a little bit
of money where they're going to get spend that money.
They're going to spend that money to as healthcare, which
is edible. Well, but everybody's going to get the benefit. Yeah,
I'm not a believer in that sort of stuff, Jamie.
There's no reason people like you, people like me should
(18:46):
get more subsidized healthcare. If you're going to take money
off people in the form of a careful against tax,
let's make sure that we read put that money into
those areas of the economy or those areas of society
that really need it.
Speaker 2 (18:57):
Let's talk about the official straight We've got another review
coming up, I think late November. We're sitting at two
and a half. It looked odds on until those inflation
numbers came out that we would get down to maybe
two percent. But now the markets or the jury's out,
isn't it. Is it going to be two point twenty
five the end spot or is it going to be
(19:18):
two because inflation is still running at three?
Speaker 5 (19:22):
Yeah, or headline inflation is so dark. If we strip
out the likes of administrative charges, which is local authorities,
central government sort of charges, inflation's a lot more contained.
The core inflation measures look like they're running around two
and a half, So the markets that are hedging its
bets and the OCA might go to two, might go
to two point two five. So we're at two point
(19:43):
five at the moment, So we're within spitting distance of
where the market thinks the CROFT is going to be.
So we're getting towards what's called the glide path or
monetary policy near the endpoint, and the Reserve Bank just
needs to be a little bit careful here because this economy,
I still think has got a lot of latent underlying
inflation with pressure out there, and it looks like there's
(20:05):
a big bow wave of inflation or cost increases that
people want to pass on into price increases. Soon if
we start to see things pack up. So what's the
space you have? The reserve banks obviously decided to go
big with the fifty that they need to go fifty
in mine might know they've done it, will take it.
Maybe we get one more, and we get one more.
(20:27):
I think it might be one and dow.
Speaker 2 (20:29):
Is there exchange rate getting too soft?
Speaker 3 (20:32):
Or is it?
Speaker 2 (20:33):
And if it is, is there anything we can do
about it? The answer is probably no. To the second question, well.
Speaker 5 (20:39):
I guess yeah, we'll obviously definition are too soft because
the currency is just a relative price variable. Yeah, Jamie,
that shifts the playing field from exporters to imports. You know,
when the currency is low, exporters win, importers lose. When
the current is high, exporters lose and importers win. If
you look at fair venue for the New Zealand dollar
(21:00):
against the green bath, I think it's around sixty five cents.
We're around fifty seven to fifty eight. So we're in
that export friendly zone and we need that export friendly
sort of number at the moment because we had a
horrific current account and deficit. We had a completely unbalanced
economies that lower currency in combination with higher currency with
high commodity prices. As engineering, what we cause a quality
(21:22):
upturn as oppose the one led by inferior quality in
the form of an a runaway Aukland property market. So
it's not great if you want a holiday overseas, but
we need that currency at the moment and an export
friendly zone. And it's been interesting to see if LAP
just we're starting to nudge down against the Australian dollar
as well. We've spent an awful lot of time up
(21:43):
there around ninety five cents, and now with that down
below ninety that's still probably a little bit on the
expensive side to me, but it's starting to move towards
being a more export friendly number if you're pushing products
into the Australian market.
Speaker 2 (21:58):
Yes, no question to finish going back to where we started.
Does New Zealand need to broaden the tax base with
the capital gains tax?
Speaker 5 (22:08):
Yes, rather came through a capital gains tax regime as
opposed to some of the nutty stuff in the former
Wealth taxes.
Speaker 2 (22:17):
Cameron Bagriy, thanks as always, for your time on the country.
Appreciate it for twenty six away from one always good
value Cameron Baggery some of your feedback on their text
line five double nine Jamie. Once c GT push us
through then taxing everything will apply. I bet. Another one said,
(22:41):
apparently generators are a plenty around North Canterbury. I pick
up the bums from the earthquakes a few years back.
I may have it may have ensured that. Sorry, but
of a type over there the wind has given the
same kick up the bomb for Southland as I agree
with the text of pointing out about one hundred thousand
(23:02):
dollars boat in the shed but no generator. Here's another
one from Southern Southland. Good Jamie. Four hundred and thirteen
mills in the last sixty days. Where's it gone there?
It is there and Southern south and we often used
generators to run our electric fence system because of the
power outages. Look, Southland had a terrible spring last year
(23:22):
and they thought nothing could be worse. I think mother
nature might have outdone itself. Fell Duncan on that later
in the hour. Up next Michelle with the latest and
rural news. We'll have a look at sports news for
you looking forward to debating slash no doubt arguing capital
gains tax with Jamie and O'Connor too before the end
of the hour, Welcome back to the country and hello
(23:59):
to the nineteen nineties. What is there anything more nineteen
nineties than Deep Obsession late nineties. I think it was
True BLUs, maybe true Bliss. Yeah, well, the same sort
of era. And well we always debate whether the Deep
Obsession girls were sisters. I don't know that they were,
but anyhow, we've got to do the rural news.
Speaker 1 (24:16):
The country's world news with Coup Cadet, New Zealand's leading
right on lawn Bow brand. Visit steel Ford dot co
dot NZM for your locals, Dougust.
Speaker 2 (24:25):
So you were Ticky touring Michelle Watt over the long
weekend through into central Otago. You didn't drive. You didn't
drive through Bellcluther by any chance, did you your old
home patch. No.
Speaker 8 (24:37):
We went through Lawrence though, which was one of the
hardest areas with their power out until.
Speaker 2 (24:43):
The other day, I think, yeah, Okay, Well in Bellcluther, interestingly,
or there was on Sunday when I went down to
see what was happening in South and there's still two
overturned vehicles just on the north side of Bellcluther. Look
on that ridge. It's windy enough on a semi calm day,
let alone when that storm came through so terrible. What
were your observations on the weather.
Speaker 8 (25:03):
Some bits it looked like I hadn't been through anything,
and other bits it had.
Speaker 2 (25:06):
It'll be bit closer to that.
Speaker 8 (25:09):
Waving at me. I've got to get us to your
sign language in this place.
Speaker 2 (25:12):
Well I was. I could have given you another gesture,
but that might have been a bit rude, that one
just talking.
Speaker 8 (25:18):
To so Lawrence, it looked like it's crazy. It's just
like all around the country. Really, some parts look like
a tornado had been through. Other parts look like it
had been well left alone. It was insane and Lawrence
was hit incredibly hard. They had no water, no power,
nothing for quite a long time.
Speaker 2 (25:33):
Yeah, areas are central and western South and being badly hit.
The farm that I'm involved and still and that's an
hotel towel West and South and still haven't got the
power on there. What what were those numbers? Six thousan
two hundred and fifty customers in Southland, two and a
half thousand in Otago, mainly in Southwest Otago still yet
(25:54):
to get the power on, so it has been tough,
indeed it has.
Speaker 8 (25:59):
It'll be interesting thing. I was talking to you about
this before, about the investment Bruce tax incentive that was
announced in the budget. How many farmers will take advantage
of that now to go get a generator.
Speaker 2 (26:11):
I wouldn't mind being the business of selling generators at
the moment because this has been a shot across the
bows and it probably has been a once in a
lifetime event in terms of the power. But it won't
be another lifetime until we get the same sort of
thing any how. The climate changed and Aisles will beyond
to me, I better get onto sports news.
Speaker 1 (26:30):
Sport with AFCO. Visit them online at AFCO dot co
dot nz.
Speaker 2 (26:34):
Yes that's you, Rooks ex professional. I don't want that.
That's the boring bulletin. I had to look at that
before I'm going to go to the twelve o'clock one.
The All Blacks are seeking. Jordi Barrett's thoughts ahead of
Sunday's first Northern Hemisphere Rugby Tour test against Ireland and Chicago.
Good viewing time too, I think is it like nine
o'clock in the morning or something like that. The midfield
(26:56):
has spend a seven month sabbatical with the Irish club
Leinster before turning to New Zealand in July. Coach Scott
Robertson says Barrett's excursion has sharpened his knowledge of the game.
It certainly sharpened him as well. He's played very well
this season as Jordie and Phoenix defender Tim Payne has
suffered a broken collar bone during the home A league
(27:17):
win over the Roar. The length of his recovery is uncertain,
but he'll miss the All Whites Internationals next month. Did
I play the sports liner? I did? I think I
need to get tested for early on set here. Look,
there's so much happening in the studio because I'm all
fizzed up. That's why, Michelle, it's time to get the
gloves off. Up next. Damian O'Connor on a capital gains tax.
(27:44):
You've already heard from Katie Millner on the Coast, We're
going there again. Yes, he's making a rare appearance in
his old electorate. Damien O'Connor list MP for the Coast
these days, domiciled and Dunedin. Damien I know I'm going
to get a bite from you. But your capital gains
tax is, let's face it, are Clayton's capital gains tax,
the tax you have when you're not really having one.
(28:05):
What a week last effort that.
Speaker 5 (28:06):
Was cure it, Jamie, I do want more? I mean
I you know, it's an interesting line to take from you.
I guess if you have invested, and no doubt you
have in four or five properties, it is really unproductive. Yes,
we need houses in our country, but actually it's not
a productive part of our economy. And so if you
(28:28):
make a capital gain, then you should pay some tax
on that, because if you go out and work hard
day to day, you pay tax on that. So this
is about rebalancing where we should invest into the future.
And it's not retrospective.
Speaker 9 (28:40):
You know.
Speaker 5 (28:40):
We're people who have buy to buy the you know,
the rules of the day and the paradigm that we've
had around property. But that should change to create a
more productive economy. That's what we need to do.
Speaker 2 (28:51):
The trouble is you're only dipping your toes in there.
This is this is just a token effort and to
make things worse, Damian O'Connor, you're going to spend the
money giving people like me and you a free doctors visit.
We don't need it. What a waste of money. Why
don't you target the health spending.
Speaker 5 (29:09):
Back to the tax issue. If we'd done more, you
would have criticized us. This is a sensible step to
send a message that we need to encourage people to
invest in productive assets, and you know farming. For the
most part, farm assets are productive, yused. There has been
speculation on capital gains, but mostly the price you pay
(29:30):
for a farm should be based on its productive returns.
That's certainly what I got told in the nineteen eighties
when we took the subsidies off. I think we've seen
a shift from that. But if we can get back
to that, that will be good invest in businesses where
we get some real returns. So I think we've got
the capital gains tax proposal about right at this point,
given that no one has been brave enough to do this.
Speaker 2 (29:51):
Yeah, and I get that, Damien, but you're going to
generate next to nothing. Oggerall the boomers. The boomers have
already captured and thanked all the capital gains.
Speaker 5 (30:02):
Maybe, so you're saying we should have done a long
time ago.
Speaker 2 (30:05):
Is that right, Let's cut to the chase here. You're
just softening us up. Okay, this is a very mild
entry into a capital gains tax. It might be enough
not to put people off politically, maybe get your voted in.
God help us then the party and marrying the Greens
are running the country with you. This is just a
forerunner of a much harder capital gains tax, or worse,
(30:25):
a wealth tax.
Speaker 5 (30:27):
If there is any any change, people will hit the
chance to vote on it. I'm sure, and I'm sure
that my boss will have told the country that let's
come back to under this government, we've basically got a
country that is unfair, right, it's unsustainable, unproductive, and we've
got to change it. And tax is the way that
(30:48):
we can make some adjustments there to hit us in
the right direction.
Speaker 2 (30:52):
Didn't the housing bubble rarely take off under you lot
under COVID when you gave exactly the right incentives and
messages to the economy.
Speaker 5 (31:03):
So, Jamie, were you and all people across business had
their hand out asking for more, and the national opposition
crying out for more to be given to business, for
wage subsidies, for business assistance. All of those billions of
dollars that people were quite happy to take and put
in their pockets, some of whom didn't need it, and
(31:24):
now complain about the fact that that money went around
in the economy and because there was a shortage of
houses at pushed up prices. Yes, we know that they've
pushed it up. That hasn't helped, But actually a lot
of that money was demanded and called for by people
who had their hands out, sometimes did not needing it. Look,
COVID was a terrible situation. I don't think anyone would
(31:45):
have wished it upon the world or upon our economy.
We're moving on from that and making some changes to
ensure that actually we do get investment in the right areas.
We don't get the speculation that we've seen particular cross
housing and that we make houses is more affordable for
young Kiwis Damien.
Speaker 2 (32:02):
I wake up in the middle of the night in
a cold sweat, worrying about what New Zealand and the
economy will be like. If it's a party, Marie and
the greenskit anywhere near the treasury benches, What can you
say to soothe my worries?
Speaker 5 (32:17):
That's a ridiculous thing. We'll stay awake, Jamie and worry
about other things. I'd suggest to you it might be
more about the Atlas Group and its effect through the
APT Party and some of it coming through New Zealand
first as well. New Zealand First seems to have now
made New Zealand last. It's happy to see things sold
off to anyone who wants to come in with a big,
fat checkbook. We run the risk of selling off our
(32:40):
economy under the Coalition government at the moment and all
the components in it. And you had I went to
the EU thing there you had Minister what's saying, come
in invest in our economy. We've got some companies here
than monopolistic. He used that word monopolistic because and it's
a great place to invest. Got to change that to
(33:01):
make sure that it's actually a more affordable country for
most people. And so we've got to deal with the supermarkets,
We've got to deal with the el tricity companies. We've
got to deal with those monopoly players to bring prices
in the cost of living down.
Speaker 2 (33:14):
At least I'll get a sun tan On Adelaide if
you do one, Damien, because that's where I'll be spending
the next three years. Thank you very much. Thank you
very much for your.
Speaker 5 (33:23):
Time, Jamie. If that's what you want to do, then
good riddance to you. There's certainly a lot thousands and
thousands of Kiwis leaving now because of their coalition government.
So if you're the only one that goes when we
get in, then we'll get off.
Speaker 2 (33:36):
Thanks for your time. Has always enjoyed the argument.
Speaker 9 (33:39):
Thank you, Jamie Weather on the country with farmlands with
clothing to keep you cool, dry and protected this summer.
Speaker 2 (33:57):
Okay, Phil Duncan wraps the country on a Tuesday, normally
on a Monday long weekend. I know most farmers didn't
get a break. Look, I'm not going to concentrate on
the weather we've had that's in the rare vision mirror
now or even for the next day or so. What
I want to concentrate on, Phil Duncan, if we can,
is the bigger picture, what's in front of us. Because
(34:18):
I think you've got some good news for our good
mate Blocker down there in Southland, arable farmer who says
that this spring in Southland, believe it or not, is
worse than the last one.
Speaker 4 (34:28):
Yeah, give me Jamie it's it's been a rough, rough
spring for Southland and many parts of the country. But
you're right. Going into the end of this week thirty
first of October Friday, we've still got a southwesterly flow
over the country, but a big high pressure zone is
moving in and for November first, there'll be a high
pressure zone over the entire country and it's a big one.
(34:49):
It's going to hang around for Sunday and Monday as well,
with light winds and dry skies for the most part anyway,
and a complete change to what we've been in for
the last couple of months.
Speaker 2 (35:00):
Now, that's wonderful news, absolutely be welcomed. But with the
big high setting over us and all the snow that's
on in the country, does that bring frost into play,
especially for some of our horticulture industry.
Speaker 4 (35:11):
Frost and more likely tonight and tomorrow night. And as
we go through the week, the air flow warms up
and comes further out of the Tasman Australia area and
then over the weekend, but of a subtropical lean to
it going into Sunday and Monday for some areas both
top and bottom of the country. So it's going to
warm up. I don't see frost has been a real
problem this weekend, although we will double to get it
(35:32):
as we go through, so keep up to date with
our frost mats that we've got. We're to watch, but
the forecast does look as though it's warming up. There
are bigger high pressure zones in the next to November.
Not done with the Southern Ocean cold fronts and wind,
but we're going to have much more breathing space going
into the next month with these highs at times giving
(35:52):
us set or weather and also pushing away that polar
boundary to give us warmer afloats.
Speaker 2 (35:57):
Hey, Phil Duncan, thank you very much for your time
to go. There's a wee bit of feedback in here.
I want to get in before the end of the hour.
Someone having a crack at me over my pronunciation of Maori.
Sorry about that one, also saying I don't want to
be a smart ass, but you should have spent more
time focusing on buying a generator rather than leaving Jacindra
and the Greens live rent free in your head. Well,
(36:19):
they haven't really done that. And I got a nice
text from someone saying Damien was being disrespectful to me
when he said good riddance to you and I. You know, Damien,
it's the gloves always come off. There's no malice meant
in this comment, or at least I don't think there
is sea tomorrow.
Speaker 5 (36:35):
We done let It's no catch all.
Speaker 1 (36:39):
The latest from the land, It's the Country Podcast with
Jamie McKay. Thanks to Brents, the starkest of the leading
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