September 1, 2025 • 37 mins
Jamie Mackay talks to David Seymour, Bryce McKenzie, Dr Jacqueline Rowarth, Todd Clark, and Phil Duncan.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's The Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to Brent. You're specialist in
John Deere construction equipment.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
Good afternoon, New Zealand. Welcome to the Country. The show's
brought to you by Brandt. I'm Jamie McKay. That's Blondie
French kissing in the USA. We're heading to the USA
a week but later in the Our guy in Kentucky, Lexington, Kentucky,
where it's getting very very dry and the Mississippi is
running at dangerously low levels, is Todd Clark. But before
(00:50):
we chat to him, Today's big news story the release
hot off the press. I've barely had time to read it.
From the ACT Party party leaders said, David Seymour says
the only party that opposed the Zero Carbon Act is
now calling for a better deal from Paris, and he
says Paris needs to change or New Zealand needs to leave.
(01:15):
That's welcome the ACT Party leader and Deputy Prime Minister
onto the country. Are you just mirroring, you're just copycatting
Winston Peter's here, David.
Speaker 3 (01:26):
Well, the best indicator of future performance is past performance.
The only party that opposed to Zero Carbon Act when Labor,
the Greens and New Zealand first or brought it in
was Act where the only party that has been consistent
on issues like oil and gas. So people can make
(01:51):
up their mind based on what people say, but the
ACT party is very happy to be judged on what
we do, and all through the history of this issue
we've being crystal clear. But there's no point taxing food,
there's no point signing up to things that we can't afford,
and there's no point forcing New Zealand agriculture offshore so
(02:14):
that our current customers can buy food from other farmers
who actually omit more. That's a loss for the planet
and a loss for the farmers and ultimately the New
Zealand economy who right now are keeping the shop open.
Speaker 2 (02:30):
What do you say to high profile and smart agribusiness
leaders the likes of Miles Hurral, chief executive of Fonterra,
who said it would be a big mistake if we
ditched Paris.
Speaker 3 (02:42):
Well hester all, I've sat down with Miles and discussed
this with him. He has the view that he needs
to source milk solids produced in a certain way to
please certain customers in Europe and I complete their respect
that I'm not taking away his ability to do so.
(03:03):
There's lots of people in New Zealand agriculture who innovate
and do things differently to come up with a product
that satisfies their customer. So I would say the hallmark
of New Zealand agriculture for the last two generations. However,
it's not true. That's because one person has a strategy
in the market, all of us should be compelled to
(03:25):
do it, often at costs of their livelihoods. So I
actually think we need to be really clear. Paris is
back on the table. Paris agreement is like a bad boyfriend.
Either it's got a change, stop the abuse, or we're
going to leave. And those changes look like a split
gas approach, no tax on food, and more realistic emission
(03:48):
targets that are more in line with what the rest
of the world's actually doing, not what they say they're
going to do. Once again, best indication of future performances
past performance, and they should look at not what people
say about what they do.
Speaker 2 (04:01):
Well. When it comes to the coalition, Winston Peters is
a bit like a bad boyfriend. For you. You do
have your moments now, but now that the two of
you have. You're basically ganging up on the nets on
this one.
Speaker 3 (04:12):
I don't think your audience want that vision, Jam.
Speaker 2 (04:15):
Well, perhaps they don't. He's a good looking man though, David.
Albeit he's too old for you. But anyhow, are you
going to your taste? Are you? I come on, dapper, dapper,
blue pin stripe navy suit. Are you going to think? No? No,
your audience, Yes, I probably should. I'm heading down the
wrong path. Let's get the conversation back on track. Are
(04:37):
you and Winston going to gang up on the nets?
Speaker 3 (04:41):
Well, it's pretty straightforward. The people actually what made us here.
You're you're talking about politicians. Well, I'm saying to people
who are out there. If you're in the front line
of the New Zealand economy, if you're milking cows or
sawing wood, then you are already seeing what people in
urban New Zealand are feeling, and that is that climate
(05:03):
commitments are starting to bite. For a long time, you know,
we could both go to heaven as New Zealanders. We
could feel that we were good people and that we
were sustainable because we had lots of hydro, lots of
geo thermal and yet we could go to heaven, but
we didn't have to die, meaning we didn't have to
(05:24):
sacrifice having the lights on or have a heavy industry.
We could actually have it all. Now we're facing a
very different reality, and as reality bites, we're going to
have to put Paris and the Zero carbonacs back on
the table. And having held this position for as long
as these issues have existed, I think ACT is in
a very good position to represent people who share these concerns.
(05:48):
And after we listen to the voters, then you can
talk about the politicians. I just make the case that
we're a credible choice for the voter.
Speaker 2 (05:55):
So you'll be going to the election next year along
with New Zealand. First we're going to kick Paris to touch,
which simple as.
Speaker 3 (06:00):
That, Well, they can speak for themselves. All I would
say is that we have the enormous advantage of not
having brought into it at any time. And I think
that for people who are asking, well, you know, what's
the credible passway here? If we want to never have
labor in again and never have something like the Zero
(06:23):
Carbon Act, the Party can make a clear claim to
consistency on these issues.
Speaker 2 (06:29):
Are you guys prepared to sacrifice those high yielding European markets.
Speaker 3 (06:36):
Well, I don't believe for a moment that we have
to do that. Miles Hurrell, for example, and I have
to say, enjoy sitting down with them. But what he's
basically saying is I can't succeed unless everybody else is
pulled to the same level. And I don't believe that's true. Actually,
up and down New Zealand, people in the primary industries
(06:58):
are innovating their products suit their customer and they don't
rely on everyone else in the country to do exactly
the same thing first. In fact, really innovation is the
opposite of that.
Speaker 2 (07:08):
Where to from here regarding this policy.
Speaker 3 (07:12):
Well, we're going to be looking at where the rest
of the world is going, because I do agree that
simply pulling out today would have some pretty serious impacts.
But you watch over the next year. I think the
rest of the world is shifting. I think we should
be reaching out to like minded countries who are exposed
with a lot of methane in their emissions profile. And
(07:35):
that's not just South American companies with a lot of bovines.
It's also a lot of Southeast Asian companies country sorry,
with a lot of rice that also emits a lot
of methane, and we should be saying, Look, there's got
to be a coalition of the willing around the world
who are prepared to have a different conversation about Paris.
And if we can't get that, then I think it
(07:57):
might be time for us to leave.
Speaker 2 (07:58):
David, wrap it some people on the text line agreeing
with you here. I do agree that their Paris a
court is just tulip trading and needs to change. It's
a Ponzi scheme. And that is, of course regarding the
tulip You know what that the trading drama that.
Speaker 3 (08:16):
Happened many the biggest bubble happened.
Speaker 2 (08:19):
Yes, the trading scheme in the Netherlands. And here's another one.
It needs to be noted that in the meat industry,
the most profitable companies are not those involved in this
climate agri zero nonsense. They are the private companies who
get out on sala meat, not virtue signaling loss making
twats so that person is not pulling any punches. David Seymour, Look,
(08:43):
thank you very much for your time.
Speaker 3 (08:45):
Thank you, you have a great day.
Speaker 2 (08:46):
There we go, Act Party leader David Seymour, Oh what
do you make of it? Text line is five double
oh nine net zero. Call it for what it is, agriculture.
You need to full stops commas, please please, I'll try
(09:06):
and read these during the break. After the break, we're
gonna get This is going to sound like an agreement session.
Co founder of ground Swell, Bryce, I keep wanting to
call them Bryce Lawrence, but Bryce Lawrence is the political
opposite of Bryce Mackenzie. Apologies for that, Bryce Mackenzie. That is,
we're going to get your view on that before the
end of the air. Doctor Jacqueline Roweth, Todd Clark in
(09:30):
the USA and Phil Duncan on the weather. It is
miserable in Dunedin today. I hope it's better at your place.
(09:54):
That is twenty after twelve. You're with the country, brought
to you by Brent. Welcome back French theme for you
to to day. This is French letter now. A man
who was lapping up, no doubt everything that David Seymour
said as the co founder of ground Swell West Otago
dairy farmer these days Bryce Mackenzie and the old dais
he was the sheep farmer. Bryce. You'll be glad you're
(10:16):
not out lambing in this weather. Good afternoon.
Speaker 3 (10:19):
Yes, it's pretty jolly wet and cold myst part of
the country.
Speaker 4 (10:22):
I'll tell you that, Jamie. So yeah, I'm pretty happy.
Speaker 3 (10:25):
Carvin's about finished.
Speaker 2 (10:26):
You've had a You've had a pretty good run in
the deep South though, compared to other parts of the country.
So look September and Southland and Southwest Otago. You're always
going to get this.
Speaker 3 (10:37):
Yeah, it's been great, Jamie. I just feel the the
early Lambers, they'll be feeling it a bit today.
Speaker 2 (10:44):
And Seymour's comments warm the cockles of your heart. Paris
needs to change on New Zealand needs to leave. I
don't even know why I'm asking you this question.
Speaker 3 (10:53):
Oh well, you don't really need to be Jamie. I
think it's great for New Zealand farmers and in New
Zealand general. To be quite honest, people don't realize how
much that this parish agreement is destroying us A And
you know, probably the only problem we have is that
the whole thing needs to be gone simply because at
(11:14):
some stage we're going to end up with the change
of government and they're going to start running in the
same policies again using the Paris agreement as something to
hide behind there who are going to say they're obliged
to do it. So, you know, we believe it needs
to be gone completely because it is not good for us.
Speaker 2 (11:35):
Well, the like Sir Miles Hurrell, Dan Dan Bolton at
silver Fern Farms would be two guys just off the
top of my head who would strongly disagree with you.
Speaker 3 (11:47):
Yeah, there's a point, and you know we've never said
that there won't be a cost, Jamie, but the costs
going to be there one way or another if we
don't meet our targets, which we're definitely not going to
turn me all that. And now there's been a court
ruling saying that we have to take these targets seriously.
That will be repercussions we're going to have to pay anyway.
(12:08):
So there's going to be costs, see the way, and
nobody's done to cost analysis, which is going to cost
the country.
Speaker 2 (12:15):
Lest are you surprised, sorry, are you surprised in the
change in rhetoric from David Seymour, Because a few months
ago on this show, when I asked him, he was
a watered down version definitely of today. He said something
like eventually the cost of staying and will exceed the
cost of the penalty for getting out. He's got onto
the front foot. He smacked this one straight back over
the bowler's head.
Speaker 3 (12:36):
Yeah, look, we're pleasantly surprised by his forthrightness. Jamie. I'd
have to say that we didn't expect this to come.
We knew there was an announcement coming, didn't expect them
to go as far as they have. Maybe a good compromise.
Speaker 4 (12:52):
In the finish.
Speaker 3 (12:53):
We'll wait and see. But you know, when you get
Beef and Lamb with its latest analysis saying that there's
another six hundred fifty thousand hectares going into pines by
twenty fifty, that's food production that's going off shore. And
if this is all about a missions, if you believe
this is all about a missions, then those of missions
(13:13):
are going to a less efficient country than New Zealand.
So you know, there's so many holes in the powers
agreement you give them drive a bus through.
Speaker 4 (13:22):
Well.
Speaker 2 (13:22):
Some of the feedback on the text line Bryce Jamie write,
someone that guy referring to Seymour doesn't understand what he's
talking about. A dairy farmer here who thinks Miles Hurrel
and Co. Know their markets. That's one text, another one
saying net zero is gross stupidity, and another one saying,
(13:42):
once again, David Seamour's got it right on the climate hoax.
CO two is plant food as every farmer should know.
Speaker 3 (13:50):
Yes, and we've got a Will Hafer coming out from
America and December who'll be able to talk to people
around New Zealand exactly on that subject. So yeah, that's
going to be interesting.
Speaker 2 (14:03):
Jamie, Well, it's an agreement session. I wasn't going to
get anything else from you on that, Bryce. Or do
you talking about Fonterra and Miles Hurrell and those guys?
Are you you you supply Fontira?
Speaker 3 (14:13):
Don't you no open country supplier?
Speaker 2 (14:16):
Jamie, Oh, you're an open country supplier. Well you're going
to have a dairy factory closer to.
Speaker 4 (14:20):
Where you farm, yes, exactly.
Speaker 2 (14:23):
Okay, sorry, I thought you were a Fonterra supply. Do
you agree with their decision to sell their consumer brains?
Speaker 3 (14:29):
Well, I mean I've got to be a little bit careful,
but no, I don't. I think it's short sighted us.
But that's just my opinion, Jamie, Bryce.
Speaker 2 (14:38):
I know that back back in the day, you were
a useful rugby player. You might have even had a
run for Otago.
Speaker 5 (14:43):
Did you did, Jamie?
Speaker 2 (14:46):
Very fast wing a very quick on your feet. Well,
there's another great rugby personality in West Otago called Graham
Parnell Edgar. You know Graham, everyone knows. He sent me
some of the best rugby trivia I've ever scene. And
you know, when it comes to boring people with rugby trivia,
I'm right up there. Not as boring as Parnell, but
right up there. We were talking yesterday about James Ward,
(15:09):
who's got the heave ho from Palmu running Molesworth. His
dad ron Ward played Tess Rack match. Rugby is a
ford and a back and this is Parnal's trivia. Listen
to this. Ron Ward was in the last Springbok team
nineteen thirty seven that lost to the spring Box at
(15:30):
eden Park. They lost seventeen six and the spring Box
won that series two to one. Fifty eight thousand people.
This is Eden Park nineteen thirty seven, eighty eight years ago.
Fifty eight thousand which was a record attended the match.
Now here's the wonderful piece of trivia. They had a
flanker called a w E Bastard from the tar. He
(15:56):
was also known as Ebbo Bastard, now dominantly played Bryce
as a flanker. He scored two tries in the series
against the All Blacks and nineteen thirty seven, but on
the fourteenth of February nineteen forty nine, this is eleven
years later, he was shot dead by his wife's ex husband.
(16:17):
I'll be I a bastard of an end forever.
Speaker 3 (16:23):
I mean Graham could come up with that sort of trivia.
Speaker 2 (16:26):
Yeah, because when he said the last Springbok team to
beat us at Eden Park, and I'm a rugby tragic
and I'm thinking nineteen fifty six, Peter Jones, I'm absolutely
bugg at the All Blacks won the series and the
fourth Test. Remember the flower Bomb Test in eighty one.
You would have been playing there, Huey kicking the penalty
at the end of the game. And I was at
the last Springbok touring test when they had decent tours
(16:51):
back in nineteen ninety four and Shane Howarth kicked six
penalty goals. We had an eighteen all draw. Most boring
game of rugby I've ever been to.
Speaker 4 (17:00):
There you go.
Speaker 3 (17:02):
I remember who was it that got hit by the
flower Box.
Speaker 2 (17:05):
Well, Gary Knight, he's a man two kelcocky, So yeah,
there's rugby connections everywhere. Okay, Bryce, Well thanks for some
of your time and I do hope the weather improves
a bit in West Otago for you.
Speaker 3 (17:17):
Yeah, thanks Jamie, good on you there you.
Speaker 2 (17:19):
Go, and thank you to Parnell. I should be sending
him a well, yeah, I should be sending him something,
isn't that wonderful? Tribute trivia a guy called William Eberhart
Bastard And apparently when the spring Box played Australia, he
got caught climbing up a neon sign. I didn't realize
(17:39):
they had neon signs in the late nineteen thirties and
the cop asked him, what's your name and he said Bastard,
So you can imagine how that went. Radio up next,
Doctor Jacqueline Rowe's one of our leading primary sector academics.
It's all about the margin, stupid. Well maybe she is
(18:07):
one of our leading primary sector academics. Doctor Jacqueline Rois
writes a fortnightly column for US, and this week's offering
is it's the margin, stupid. Are you channeling your very best?
James B. Carvill, of course, the man who coined the
phrase it's the economy stupid for the Clinton campaign way
(18:27):
back in nineteen ninety two.
Speaker 6 (18:29):
Jacqueline, Yes, of course I am, because now I'm translating
it to businesses in New Zealand and we have to
be going for the margin. People don't always understand there's
the difference between record prices and record profit. Though I
hesitate to use the P word because it calls it
all sorts of banks, but it's the margin that matters
to our businesses.
Speaker 5 (18:50):
Now.
Speaker 2 (18:51):
This is a good point you've made here, because we
are effectively getting record prices for our commodities, but I
don't think we're getting a record margin. In fact, if
you were looking for a record margin for, for instance, dairy,
I think you'd go back ten or twelve years to
what the twenty thirteen fourteen season when we got eight
dollars forty and the cost of production then would be
(19:12):
half what it is now.
Speaker 6 (19:14):
Yeah, it was pre COVID. It was pre all sorts
of inflationary things that were precipitated by COVID, and of
course all the interest rates, so the interest rates are
still very much less film than I I have bought
my birth house in the olden days. They are still
pretty crippling for businesses, particularly the small ones, particularly on farming,
(19:36):
and that's been the whole cause of the debate with
federated farmers because of the uncertain income. It's not like
having a house and employment where you get a fortnightly
pay packet. Farming is lumpy.
Speaker 3 (19:48):
Now.
Speaker 2 (19:48):
I know the cost of food affects us all because
we all have to eat, and it seems that buttergate
has been a bit of a beat up. Do you
know what I just I'm not saying that people shouldn't
be concerned about the price of food, but having just
had a scrap with the duned and City Council over
my rate spell Jaquelin, I think the roughts out there
are rates, insurance, energy costs.
Speaker 6 (20:10):
Yeah, yes, and those are the things that need investigating,
not for endless supermarkets, poor things. I do actually feel
for them because really they keep being investigated. Yet they
keep being investigated. It's like being the naughty child in
the room and they keep coming out saying, well, it's
not extortionate because all the things that you've just pointed out,
(20:33):
including the highk in the minimum wage, all of that
has a ramping up, escalating effect through from the soil
where I'm farming light through to the supermarket where I
buy my food. So every single part is accretionary, and
nine percent on insurance preciously what about electricity, all the
(20:53):
things you've just mentioned, and so that's why I get
a bit were bothered by the ongoing use of the
term gosh. Maybe we need to get used to it.
Speaker 2 (21:03):
You've written in your column that we are a nation
of five point three million people the UK same size
seventy million on supermarkets per head as supermarkets are serving
should I say, many less people than they are in
the UK. You're suggesting this is a controversial view. There's
not actually a room for a major third player, not.
Speaker 6 (21:26):
On those data. No, there are different ways of calculating
the data, and a few months ago I wrote one
using the Australian comparisons, and it seemed that our big
supermarkets are serving more people and therefore there economies of scale,
But we've got so many little ones around that actually
the economies of scale are being squeezed, so our bigger
(21:49):
supermarkets might be in strikes. And remember the New Zealand
Woolworths does not make the same profit as the Australian
Wolworth where there are a lot more companies.
Speaker 2 (22:00):
Let me just finish on another controversial issue out there,
and this is Fonterra selling off its consumer brands. Obviously
the decision is in the hands of the Fonterira farmer shareholders,
so it should be. But everyone seems to have an
opinion on this. I see one of your fellow academics,
Alan Rennick, agriculture and economics professor at Lincoln University, is
(22:21):
saying he thinks it's a bit of a dumb idea
and I'd go back.
Speaker 6 (22:25):
To thinking about what are we trying to do in
New Zealand And we keep thinking we're a big player,
but actually it's a much much bigger pond out there.
And so there are different arguments. One is the heartfelt
and one is the economic one. If we want New
Zealand to survive, we need to think about the best
use of every dollar that we have. And if there
(22:47):
is a liberation from Fonterra in terms of funds, what
will that mean through the economy. Cameron Bagri calculates its
zero point seven percent of GDP boost and everybody would
be to fit from that.
Speaker 2 (23:01):
What do you say to mister Rennick who says that
ingredients are easier to substitute than brands, which leaves Fonterra exposed.
And I know that Fonterra has a ten year agreement
to supply the ingredients to Lactalis. I think I got
that right. No, I didn't really, but anyhow, let's move on,
(23:21):
so you know, and his point is we're giving up
the value add part of the business.
Speaker 6 (23:26):
Look at the value within Fonterra, and they're saying it's
not as big as people think. And all those are
public data to have a look at. And I'd say,
where is our best investment ten years. I haven't got
a crystal ball that will go that far. I can't
even do next week. We don't know what will happen,
but a liberation of point seventy percent of GDP that
(23:47):
will make a significant difference to the whole of the economy.
Speaker 4 (23:51):
Yep.
Speaker 2 (23:51):
And I think Miles Horror and Peter McBride are reasonably
smart people. You'll probably put my faith in those guys. Anyhow,
we'll see what happens. Interesting time in the dairy industry,
of course, with all the acquisitions coming from our good
friends at Open Country Dairy. It's all on. It's game
on Jacqueline.
Speaker 6 (24:07):
It is and Meerika made the point it's too small
in New Zealand. You know we think they're big fishes,
but were actually quite tiny. Meeraka has said it's very
difficult being a small operator and it's better to be
with somebody bigger.
Speaker 2 (24:22):
Yeah, and that's Mark Delatour's point exactly on yesterday's show.
Thanks as always for your time. People can read your
column It's the margin Stupid on our website The Country
dot co dot nz. Thanks Jenny, Thank you, Jacqueline twenty
four away from one, You're with the country. Not everyone
agrees with David Seymour and Bryce mackenzie. This is an
interesting text. New Zealand politicians are becoming increasingly populist or
(24:47):
straight up and competent. We are struggling for genuine vision
and long term prosperity for our country. I can't wait
for this generation of politicians to time out. There are
a lot of smart people in NZ agg and I'm genue.
Will he concerned if the consensus of n ZED farmers
agree with Bryce McKenzie. Send your feedback through on five
(25:07):
Double O nine. Up next Michelle with the latest and
rural news and we'll have sports news for you as
we count down to the Big Test at Eden Park
on Saturday, remembering the spring Box haven't beaten us there
since nineteen thirty seven when a young south and flanker
by the name of Ron Ward played. I think his
last test.
Speaker 6 (25:35):
So much.
Speaker 2 (25:38):
It is twenty away from one. You are with the Country.
He's the latest and rural.
Speaker 1 (25:42):
News, The Country's rurald news with Cob Cadet, New Zealand's
leading right on Lawnbower brand. Visit Steelford dot co dot
nz for your locals.
Speaker 7 (25:51):
Dargist and dearien Z directors Tracy Brown and Chris Lewis
have been reappointed unopposed to the derry n Zi board.
Dearienz Deputy chair Camera Henderson says this year's board of
director nomination period reflects the confidence farmers have in their
current leadership. The darian Zed Annual meeting will be heard
in Hamilton on Thursday, November sixth, twenty twenty five. We're
tracing Cris's reappointment. We formally acknowledged and that's rural news.
(26:14):
You can find more at the Country dot Co dot
Nz here.
Speaker 2 (26:16):
Here and they're both good people. Glad to see them back.
Speaker 1 (26:19):
Right sports with the afgo Kiwi to the bone since
nineteen oh four.
Speaker 2 (26:24):
Boxer Joseph Parker is set to headline London's o To
Arena against undefeated local prospect far Bo Wardley on October
the twenty fifth. I know of a young man in
Tolronga who runs a brilliant cleaning company called super Clean
for all your commercial cleaning needs in Taranga, who will
be very excited about that. The new Zealander, on a
(26:46):
six fight winning run, has been in a frustrating state
of limbo while waiting on governing bodies to determine whether
he'll get to challenge Alexander Usik for the coveted undisputed
status and spring box coach Arrassi Arrasthmus will make a
decision on Thursday whether it is Captain c Calisi is
(27:09):
fit to play against the All Blacks at Eden Park.
How good is that test going to be on Saturday?
In fact, Michelle, how good is Saturday going to be
the Stags defending the Shield against Canterbury at Rugby? Park
I was just thinking, I hope it's bloody cold there,
(27:30):
mind you. The Cantabrians are sort of used to that. Look,
we don't want no disrespect to canterburyan crop, but we
don't want the shield to go back there. You've had
it enough. Keep it in the little places it belongs
in Southland for the summer. Up next, a US farming correspondent,
Todd Clark.
Speaker 6 (28:02):
Walking.
Speaker 2 (28:04):
He's our guy in Lexington, Kentucky, bluegrass country. A US
farm and correspondent, Todd Clark. They're just ending their summer.
It's been very dry, Todd since we last chatted to
you late July. In fact, the Mississippi River, which ultimately
drains half or more of the USA, is dangerously low.
Speaker 4 (28:26):
Good afternoon, Jamie. That's exactly right. And it's amazing how
much the weather has changed. And I guess as farmers
we all know that. But since the last time we talked,
we were we had hit our annual amount of rainfall
in six months. And then the tap is shut off.
(28:46):
And it's not just shut off for Kentucky, it's shut
off for a huge portion of the eastern portion of
the United States, including the corn Belt and all of
the down the delta of the Mississippi, and so because
of that, it's caused most of the crops corn, soybean,
(29:08):
sweet cotton to not finish, and so it was a
really tough year to begin with. Wet in the spring,
couldn't get the crops out, and now they can't finish
the crops off and get good yields, and then the
prices they're depressed. So it's not a good time in
US agriculture at the moment, other than beef.
Speaker 2 (29:27):
Yeah, well, I was going to say, ultimately, one man's
misfortune is another man's good fortune. This is not going
to help the drought with rebuilding the US beef herd.
So there's probably a silver lining, as much as it
pains me to say this to you, Todd for New
Zealand beef.
Speaker 4 (29:43):
Farmers, probably so other than the tariffs, and we've talked
a lot about that, but the outside of that, yes,
the demand still remains. Since the last time we've talked,
the beef prices continue to go up. You know, it's
not like the last year where they've doubled on themselves.
(30:05):
But it's weekly. We get reports from across not only Kentucky,
but once again the eastern portion of the United States
and even out into the plains states of record prices
for various sizes of cattle, and so it can't go
much higher than it is now, I wouldn't think, But
(30:26):
every week it does. And so it's good times for beef,
but not so much for corn and soybeans and cotton,
rice and all the other crops.
Speaker 2 (30:37):
Mark Twain famously said, the reports of my death are
greatly exaggerated. And there was reports floating around over the
weekend that Trump had died because he was missing an action.
They hadn't seen him for two days, but he turned
up on a golf course, true to form now when
it comes to Trump and as tariffs. I also heard
a report about Las Vegas, sun city being the bellweather
(31:02):
or the barometer for the US economy and how it
was really struggling. So is the US economy really battling
at the moment, because I note, for instance, your equity
markets are at an almost all time high.
Speaker 4 (31:14):
Yeah, but the the that that is the truth about Vegas,
Vegas has taken a step back. My wife Kristen has
just returned a couple of weeks ago from being out
there and commented on that it's that it wasn't busy
like normal, but equity markets and things like that. While
it affects everyone, just your everyday American is really feeling
(31:39):
the pinch. Inflation has really come down, but the prices
are still high for food, gas that sort of the
gas is backed up some. But housing, just the cost
of rent and houses across the US. A starter home
in Lexington is now two hundred and sixty thousand dollars,
(32:02):
so that's your cheapest entry level house, and so just
everything costs so much in Yeah, there's a little bit
of treading water happening with the US economy at the moment. Todd.
Speaker 2 (32:14):
I know you're coming over to New Zealand early next year,
looking forward to hosting it. You'll be amazed at our
housing prices, even though they're stagnating at the moment. Two
hundred and sixty thousand US dollars, what's that? Maybe just
less than five hundred thousand. New Zealand wouldn't buy you
that much here.
Speaker 4 (32:31):
Oh really, Yeah, it is interesting, but that's yeah, it
makes you wonder about your the next generation. You know,
in my case, my kids, what they're going to be
able to afford. But I'm sure my parents worried about
the same thing. And their parents about them. So with
a good attitude, we'll get through this. But it's it
(32:52):
depends on where you are in this economy as to
how you're doing at the moment. In the low income
people are really struggling, and there's a huge number of
those people in the US and they're they're struggling at
the moment.
Speaker 2 (33:08):
Hey got to go, Todd, Thanks for some of your time.
And I do hope you get some rain and Lexington,
Kentucky and the drought ends.
Speaker 4 (33:16):
Thanks Jammy, I appreciate it.
Speaker 5 (33:17):
Mug you back.
Speaker 2 (33:22):
My last two struggles.
Speaker 3 (33:24):
Let you never knowing why when roll.
Speaker 2 (33:30):
What a great voice the king had. It is six
away from one year with the country. Phil Duncan to
wrap it from weather Watch. Now here's a question for you, Phil,
it's a hearty annual. Has spring started or do we
wait for the equinox?
Speaker 4 (33:45):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (33:46):
No, spring has started. From a weather point of view,
We've got affect textbook textbook, classic spring weather on the
way with lots of cold fronts mixed in with high
pressure zones, so we have windy weather at times. We've
got the squawly showers on the western side, and most
of the rain leads to the west, with over the
next two weeks the West coast getting you know, two
(34:08):
hundred to children fifty millimeters at least on the central
part of the West coast, and the eastern parts of
the country are leaning drive than usual, or at least
leaning drive in that being so it's kind of a
normal windy, warm, cold, you know, all mixed up kind
of month coming up.
Speaker 2 (34:26):
It's a bitterly cold day at the bottom of the country.
I'm glad my days as a sheep farmer and being
on the landing beat are done. It'd be too soft
for it now, Phil. But following these southwest changes we
do get a high coming and that's just the spring pattern.
But we do need to be worried about frosts, or
the horticulturists do.
Speaker 5 (34:45):
Yes, there are a lot of moving parts in spring,
and this week high pressure actually comes in over the
North Island around about Wednesday, and most of the country
gets the more settled weather. The winds finally stayed out,
but as a result of that it means obviously we
get frost back again, so the South Island particularly frosty
Wednesday and Thursday, although the frost do reduce on Thursday,
(35:07):
the North Island's not looking quite so frosty, but it
is possible, especially in central parts of the North Island
on Wednesday morning, but by the end of the.
Speaker 4 (35:15):
Week frost disappear.
Speaker 5 (35:16):
Windy weather kicks in spring light in many parts of
the country, but in the South Island. In comes the
next polar change that moves up the North Island on
Saturday with a few thunderstorms and heavy showers again coming
off the Tasman and by the time we get to Sunday,
polar airflow covers the entire nation, so where we're back
to feeling like winter on Sunday with this polar air
going right up north of New Zealand.
Speaker 2 (35:38):
I was talking well to Mike Petterson a wee bit
earlier in the week, who was just saying, in Hawk's Bay,
for instance, they're just getting a tad dry.
Speaker 4 (35:47):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (35:47):
In fact, you know, Hawk's Bay has been sort of
in the central southern parts of Hawk's Bay, there have
been some pockets of dry weather that started back in
summer and hasn't been repaired during winter. In fact, despite
all the rain that we had the start of winter,
which called flooding all over the place and places that
normally are dry like Nelson Hawks. They missed out on it,
so that rain shadow is going to remain and possibly
(36:08):
get a little worse over the next couple of weeks.
As again, I think the westerly flow won't save the
rain going into that area yet.
Speaker 2 (36:15):
Okay, you game enough to go out to Saturday Eden
Park seven pm.
Speaker 5 (36:20):
So there is a cold front moving into Auckland on
Sunday and Saturday. Sorry, and I literally mentioned this in
my weather video today. That timing of that front is
the thing that's going to be the hardest part because
it's moving up the North Island downpours during the day.
They should clear in the evening, but they might go
on a little bit longer. It's a little bit hard
to not.
Speaker 2 (36:40):
Okay, Phil Duncan there from weather Watch, he's our top
weather man on a Monday and a Tuesday in this case,
leave you with a wee bit of Alvis. Catch you
back tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (36:56):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to Brent, your specialist in
John Deere machinery,
Catch all the latest from the land. It's The Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to Brent. You're specialist in
John Deere construction equipment.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
Good afternoon, New Zealand. Welcome to the Country. The show's
brought to you by Brandt. I'm Jamie McKay. That's Blondie
French kissing in the USA. We're heading to the USA
a week but later in the Our guy in Kentucky, Lexington, Kentucky,
where it's getting very very dry and the Mississippi is
running at dangerously low levels, is Todd Clark. But before
(00:50):
we chat to him, Today's big news story the release
hot off the press. I've barely had time to read it.
From the ACT Party party leaders said, David Seymour says
the only party that opposed the Zero Carbon Act is
now calling for a better deal from Paris, and he
says Paris needs to change or New Zealand needs to leave.
(01:15):
That's welcome the ACT Party leader and Deputy Prime Minister
onto the country. Are you just mirroring, you're just copycatting
Winston Peter's here, David.
Speaker 3 (01:26):
Well, the best indicator of future performance is past performance.
The only party that opposed to Zero Carbon Act when Labor,
the Greens and New Zealand first or brought it in
was Act where the only party that has been consistent
on issues like oil and gas. So people can make
(01:51):
up their mind based on what people say, but the
ACT party is very happy to be judged on what
we do, and all through the history of this issue
we've being crystal clear. But there's no point taxing food,
there's no point signing up to things that we can't afford,
and there's no point forcing New Zealand agriculture offshore so
(02:14):
that our current customers can buy food from other farmers
who actually omit more. That's a loss for the planet
and a loss for the farmers and ultimately the New
Zealand economy who right now are keeping the shop open.
Speaker 2 (02:30):
What do you say to high profile and smart agribusiness
leaders the likes of Miles Hurral, chief executive of Fonterra,
who said it would be a big mistake if we
ditched Paris.
Speaker 3 (02:42):
Well hester all, I've sat down with Miles and discussed
this with him. He has the view that he needs
to source milk solids produced in a certain way to
please certain customers in Europe and I complete their respect
that I'm not taking away his ability to do so.
(03:03):
There's lots of people in New Zealand agriculture who innovate
and do things differently to come up with a product
that satisfies their customer. So I would say the hallmark
of New Zealand agriculture for the last two generations. However,
it's not true. That's because one person has a strategy
in the market, all of us should be compelled to
(03:25):
do it, often at costs of their livelihoods. So I
actually think we need to be really clear. Paris is
back on the table. Paris agreement is like a bad boyfriend.
Either it's got a change, stop the abuse, or we're
going to leave. And those changes look like a split
gas approach, no tax on food, and more realistic emission
(03:48):
targets that are more in line with what the rest
of the world's actually doing, not what they say they're
going to do. Once again, best indication of future performances
past performance, and they should look at not what people
say about what they do.
Speaker 2 (04:01):
Well. When it comes to the coalition, Winston Peters is
a bit like a bad boyfriend. For you. You do
have your moments now, but now that the two of
you have. You're basically ganging up on the nets on
this one.
Speaker 3 (04:12):
I don't think your audience want that vision, Jam.
Speaker 2 (04:15):
Well, perhaps they don't. He's a good looking man though, David.
Albeit he's too old for you. But anyhow, are you
going to your taste? Are you? I come on, dapper, dapper,
blue pin stripe navy suit. Are you going to think? No? No,
your audience, Yes, I probably should. I'm heading down the
wrong path. Let's get the conversation back on track. Are
(04:37):
you and Winston going to gang up on the nets?
Speaker 3 (04:41):
Well, it's pretty straightforward. The people actually what made us here.
You're you're talking about politicians. Well, I'm saying to people
who are out there. If you're in the front line
of the New Zealand economy, if you're milking cows or
sawing wood, then you are already seeing what people in
urban New Zealand are feeling, and that is that climate
(05:03):
commitments are starting to bite. For a long time, you know,
we could both go to heaven as New Zealanders. We
could feel that we were good people and that we
were sustainable because we had lots of hydro, lots of
geo thermal and yet we could go to heaven, but
we didn't have to die, meaning we didn't have to
(05:24):
sacrifice having the lights on or have a heavy industry.
We could actually have it all. Now we're facing a
very different reality, and as reality bites, we're going to
have to put Paris and the Zero carbonacs back on
the table. And having held this position for as long
as these issues have existed, I think ACT is in
a very good position to represent people who share these concerns.
(05:48):
And after we listen to the voters, then you can
talk about the politicians. I just make the case that
we're a credible choice for the voter.
Speaker 2 (05:55):
So you'll be going to the election next year along
with New Zealand. First we're going to kick Paris to touch,
which simple as.
Speaker 3 (06:00):
That, Well, they can speak for themselves. All I would
say is that we have the enormous advantage of not
having brought into it at any time. And I think
that for people who are asking, well, you know, what's
the credible passway here? If we want to never have
labor in again and never have something like the Zero
(06:23):
Carbon Act, the Party can make a clear claim to
consistency on these issues.
Speaker 2 (06:29):
Are you guys prepared to sacrifice those high yielding European markets.
Speaker 3 (06:36):
Well, I don't believe for a moment that we have
to do that. Miles Hurrell, for example, and I have
to say, enjoy sitting down with them. But what he's
basically saying is I can't succeed unless everybody else is
pulled to the same level. And I don't believe that's true. Actually,
up and down New Zealand, people in the primary industries
(06:58):
are innovating their products suit their customer and they don't
rely on everyone else in the country to do exactly
the same thing first. In fact, really innovation is the
opposite of that.
Speaker 2 (07:08):
Where to from here regarding this policy.
Speaker 3 (07:12):
Well, we're going to be looking at where the rest
of the world is going, because I do agree that
simply pulling out today would have some pretty serious impacts.
But you watch over the next year. I think the
rest of the world is shifting. I think we should
be reaching out to like minded countries who are exposed
with a lot of methane in their emissions profile. And
(07:35):
that's not just South American companies with a lot of bovines.
It's also a lot of Southeast Asian companies country sorry,
with a lot of rice that also emits a lot
of methane, and we should be saying, Look, there's got
to be a coalition of the willing around the world
who are prepared to have a different conversation about Paris.
And if we can't get that, then I think it
(07:57):
might be time for us to leave.
Speaker 2 (07:58):
David, wrap it some people on the text line agreeing
with you here. I do agree that their Paris a
court is just tulip trading and needs to change. It's
a Ponzi scheme. And that is, of course regarding the
tulip You know what that the trading drama that.
Speaker 3 (08:16):
Happened many the biggest bubble happened.
Speaker 2 (08:19):
Yes, the trading scheme in the Netherlands. And here's another one.
It needs to be noted that in the meat industry,
the most profitable companies are not those involved in this
climate agri zero nonsense. They are the private companies who
get out on sala meat, not virtue signaling loss making
twats so that person is not pulling any punches. David Seymour, Look,
(08:43):
thank you very much for your time.
Speaker 3 (08:45):
Thank you, you have a great day.
Speaker 2 (08:46):
There we go, Act Party leader David Seymour, Oh what
do you make of it? Text line is five double
oh nine net zero. Call it for what it is, agriculture.
You need to full stops commas, please please, I'll try
(09:06):
and read these during the break. After the break, we're
gonna get This is going to sound like an agreement session.
Co founder of ground Swell, Bryce, I keep wanting to
call them Bryce Lawrence, but Bryce Lawrence is the political
opposite of Bryce Mackenzie. Apologies for that, Bryce Mackenzie. That is,
we're going to get your view on that before the
end of the air. Doctor Jacqueline Roweth, Todd Clark in
(09:30):
the USA and Phil Duncan on the weather. It is
miserable in Dunedin today. I hope it's better at your place.
(09:54):
That is twenty after twelve. You're with the country, brought
to you by Brent. Welcome back French theme for you
to to day. This is French letter now. A man
who was lapping up, no doubt everything that David Seymour
said as the co founder of ground Swell West Otago
dairy farmer these days Bryce Mackenzie and the old dais
he was the sheep farmer. Bryce. You'll be glad you're
(10:16):
not out lambing in this weather. Good afternoon.
Speaker 3 (10:19):
Yes, it's pretty jolly wet and cold myst part of
the country.
Speaker 4 (10:22):
I'll tell you that, Jamie. So yeah, I'm pretty happy.
Speaker 3 (10:25):
Carvin's about finished.
Speaker 2 (10:26):
You've had a You've had a pretty good run in
the deep South though, compared to other parts of the country.
So look September and Southland and Southwest Otago. You're always
going to get this.
Speaker 3 (10:37):
Yeah, it's been great, Jamie. I just feel the the
early Lambers, they'll be feeling it a bit today.
Speaker 2 (10:44):
And Seymour's comments warm the cockles of your heart. Paris
needs to change on New Zealand needs to leave. I
don't even know why I'm asking you this question.
Speaker 3 (10:53):
Oh well, you don't really need to be Jamie. I
think it's great for New Zealand farmers and in New
Zealand general. To be quite honest, people don't realize how
much that this parish agreement is destroying us A And
you know, probably the only problem we have is that
the whole thing needs to be gone simply because at
(11:14):
some stage we're going to end up with the change
of government and they're going to start running in the
same policies again using the Paris agreement as something to
hide behind there who are going to say they're obliged
to do it. So, you know, we believe it needs
to be gone completely because it is not good for us.
Speaker 2 (11:35):
Well, the like Sir Miles Hurrell, Dan Dan Bolton at
silver Fern Farms would be two guys just off the
top of my head who would strongly disagree with you.
Speaker 3 (11:47):
Yeah, there's a point, and you know we've never said
that there won't be a cost, Jamie, but the costs
going to be there one way or another if we
don't meet our targets, which we're definitely not going to
turn me all that. And now there's been a court
ruling saying that we have to take these targets seriously.
That will be repercussions we're going to have to pay anyway.
(12:08):
So there's going to be costs, see the way, and
nobody's done to cost analysis, which is going to cost
the country.
Speaker 2 (12:15):
Lest are you surprised, sorry, are you surprised in the
change in rhetoric from David Seymour, Because a few months
ago on this show, when I asked him, he was
a watered down version definitely of today. He said something
like eventually the cost of staying and will exceed the
cost of the penalty for getting out. He's got onto
the front foot. He smacked this one straight back over
the bowler's head.
Speaker 3 (12:36):
Yeah, look, we're pleasantly surprised by his forthrightness. Jamie. I'd
have to say that we didn't expect this to come.
We knew there was an announcement coming, didn't expect them
to go as far as they have. Maybe a good compromise.
Speaker 4 (12:52):
In the finish.
Speaker 3 (12:53):
We'll wait and see. But you know, when you get
Beef and Lamb with its latest analysis saying that there's
another six hundred fifty thousand hectares going into pines by
twenty fifty, that's food production that's going off shore. And
if this is all about a missions, if you believe
this is all about a missions, then those of missions
(13:13):
are going to a less efficient country than New Zealand.
So you know, there's so many holes in the powers
agreement you give them drive a bus through.
Speaker 4 (13:22):
Well.
Speaker 2 (13:22):
Some of the feedback on the text line Bryce Jamie write,
someone that guy referring to Seymour doesn't understand what he's
talking about. A dairy farmer here who thinks Miles Hurrel
and Co. Know their markets. That's one text, another one
saying net zero is gross stupidity, and another one saying,
(13:42):
once again, David Seamour's got it right on the climate hoax.
CO two is plant food as every farmer should know.
Speaker 3 (13:50):
Yes, and we've got a Will Hafer coming out from
America and December who'll be able to talk to people
around New Zealand exactly on that subject. So yeah, that's
going to be interesting.
Speaker 2 (14:03):
Jamie, Well, it's an agreement session. I wasn't going to
get anything else from you on that, Bryce. Or do
you talking about Fonterra and Miles Hurrell and those guys?
Are you you you supply Fontira?
Speaker 3 (14:13):
Don't you no open country supplier?
Speaker 2 (14:16):
Jamie, Oh, you're an open country supplier. Well you're going
to have a dairy factory closer to.
Speaker 4 (14:20):
Where you farm, yes, exactly.
Speaker 2 (14:23):
Okay, sorry, I thought you were a Fonterra supply. Do
you agree with their decision to sell their consumer brains?
Speaker 3 (14:29):
Well, I mean I've got to be a little bit careful,
but no, I don't. I think it's short sighted us.
But that's just my opinion, Jamie, Bryce.
Speaker 2 (14:38):
I know that back back in the day, you were
a useful rugby player. You might have even had a
run for Otago.
Speaker 5 (14:43):
Did you did, Jamie?
Speaker 2 (14:46):
Very fast wing a very quick on your feet. Well,
there's another great rugby personality in West Otago called Graham
Parnell Edgar. You know Graham, everyone knows. He sent me
some of the best rugby trivia I've ever scene. And
you know, when it comes to boring people with rugby trivia,
I'm right up there. Not as boring as Parnell, but
right up there. We were talking yesterday about James Ward,
(15:09):
who's got the heave ho from Palmu running Molesworth. His
dad ron Ward played Tess Rack match. Rugby is a
ford and a back and this is Parnal's trivia. Listen
to this. Ron Ward was in the last Springbok team
nineteen thirty seven that lost to the spring Box at
(15:30):
eden Park. They lost seventeen six and the spring Box
won that series two to one. Fifty eight thousand people.
This is Eden Park nineteen thirty seven, eighty eight years ago.
Fifty eight thousand which was a record attended the match.
Now here's the wonderful piece of trivia. They had a
flanker called a w E Bastard from the tar. He
(15:56):
was also known as Ebbo Bastard, now dominantly played Bryce
as a flanker. He scored two tries in the series
against the All Blacks and nineteen thirty seven, but on
the fourteenth of February nineteen forty nine, this is eleven
years later, he was shot dead by his wife's ex husband.
(16:17):
I'll be I a bastard of an end forever.
Speaker 3 (16:23):
I mean Graham could come up with that sort of trivia.
Speaker 2 (16:26):
Yeah, because when he said the last Springbok team to
beat us at Eden Park, and I'm a rugby tragic
and I'm thinking nineteen fifty six, Peter Jones, I'm absolutely
bugg at the All Blacks won the series and the
fourth Test. Remember the flower Bomb Test in eighty one.
You would have been playing there, Huey kicking the penalty
at the end of the game. And I was at
the last Springbok touring test when they had decent tours
(16:51):
back in nineteen ninety four and Shane Howarth kicked six
penalty goals. We had an eighteen all draw. Most boring
game of rugby I've ever been to.
Speaker 4 (17:00):
There you go.
Speaker 3 (17:02):
I remember who was it that got hit by the
flower Box.
Speaker 2 (17:05):
Well, Gary Knight, he's a man two kelcocky, So yeah,
there's rugby connections everywhere. Okay, Bryce, Well thanks for some
of your time and I do hope the weather improves
a bit in West Otago for you.
Speaker 3 (17:17):
Yeah, thanks Jamie, good on you there you.
Speaker 2 (17:19):
Go, and thank you to Parnell. I should be sending
him a well, yeah, I should be sending him something,
isn't that wonderful? Tribute trivia a guy called William Eberhart
Bastard And apparently when the spring Box played Australia, he
got caught climbing up a neon sign. I didn't realize
(17:39):
they had neon signs in the late nineteen thirties and
the cop asked him, what's your name and he said Bastard,
So you can imagine how that went. Radio up next,
Doctor Jacqueline Rowe's one of our leading primary sector academics.
It's all about the margin, stupid. Well maybe she is
(18:07):
one of our leading primary sector academics. Doctor Jacqueline Rois
writes a fortnightly column for US, and this week's offering
is it's the margin, stupid. Are you channeling your very best?
James B. Carvill, of course, the man who coined the
phrase it's the economy stupid for the Clinton campaign way
(18:27):
back in nineteen ninety two.
Speaker 6 (18:29):
Jacqueline, Yes, of course I am, because now I'm translating
it to businesses in New Zealand and we have to
be going for the margin. People don't always understand there's
the difference between record prices and record profit. Though I
hesitate to use the P word because it calls it
all sorts of banks, but it's the margin that matters
to our businesses.
Speaker 5 (18:50):
Now.
Speaker 2 (18:51):
This is a good point you've made here, because we
are effectively getting record prices for our commodities, but I
don't think we're getting a record margin. In fact, if
you were looking for a record margin for, for instance, dairy,
I think you'd go back ten or twelve years to
what the twenty thirteen fourteen season when we got eight
dollars forty and the cost of production then would be
(19:12):
half what it is now.
Speaker 6 (19:14):
Yeah, it was pre COVID. It was pre all sorts
of inflationary things that were precipitated by COVID, and of
course all the interest rates, so the interest rates are
still very much less film than I I have bought
my birth house in the olden days. They are still
pretty crippling for businesses, particularly the small ones, particularly on farming,
(19:36):
and that's been the whole cause of the debate with
federated farmers because of the uncertain income. It's not like
having a house and employment where you get a fortnightly
pay packet. Farming is lumpy.
Speaker 3 (19:48):
Now.
Speaker 2 (19:48):
I know the cost of food affects us all because
we all have to eat, and it seems that buttergate
has been a bit of a beat up. Do you
know what I just I'm not saying that people shouldn't
be concerned about the price of food, but having just
had a scrap with the duned and City Council over
my rate spell Jaquelin, I think the roughts out there
are rates, insurance, energy costs.
Speaker 6 (20:10):
Yeah, yes, and those are the things that need investigating,
not for endless supermarkets, poor things. I do actually feel
for them because really they keep being investigated. Yet they
keep being investigated. It's like being the naughty child in
the room and they keep coming out saying, well, it's
not extortionate because all the things that you've just pointed out,
(20:33):
including the highk in the minimum wage, all of that
has a ramping up, escalating effect through from the soil
where I'm farming light through to the supermarket where I
buy my food. So every single part is accretionary, and
nine percent on insurance preciously what about electricity, all the
(20:53):
things you've just mentioned, and so that's why I get
a bit were bothered by the ongoing use of the
term gosh. Maybe we need to get used to it.
Speaker 2 (21:03):
You've written in your column that we are a nation
of five point three million people the UK same size
seventy million on supermarkets per head as supermarkets are serving
should I say, many less people than they are in
the UK. You're suggesting this is a controversial view. There's
not actually a room for a major third player, not.
Speaker 6 (21:26):
On those data. No, there are different ways of calculating
the data, and a few months ago I wrote one
using the Australian comparisons, and it seemed that our big
supermarkets are serving more people and therefore there economies of scale,
But we've got so many little ones around that actually
the economies of scale are being squeezed, so our bigger
(21:49):
supermarkets might be in strikes. And remember the New Zealand
Woolworths does not make the same profit as the Australian
Wolworth where there are a lot more companies.
Speaker 2 (22:00):
Let me just finish on another controversial issue out there,
and this is Fonterra selling off its consumer brands. Obviously
the decision is in the hands of the Fonterira farmer shareholders,
so it should be. But everyone seems to have an
opinion on this. I see one of your fellow academics,
Alan Rennick, agriculture and economics professor at Lincoln University, is
(22:21):
saying he thinks it's a bit of a dumb idea
and I'd go back.
Speaker 6 (22:25):
To thinking about what are we trying to do in
New Zealand And we keep thinking we're a big player,
but actually it's a much much bigger pond out there.
And so there are different arguments. One is the heartfelt
and one is the economic one. If we want New
Zealand to survive, we need to think about the best
use of every dollar that we have. And if there
(22:47):
is a liberation from Fonterra in terms of funds, what
will that mean through the economy. Cameron Bagri calculates its
zero point seven percent of GDP boost and everybody would
be to fit from that.
Speaker 2 (23:01):
What do you say to mister Rennick who says that
ingredients are easier to substitute than brands, which leaves Fonterra exposed.
And I know that Fonterra has a ten year agreement
to supply the ingredients to Lactalis. I think I got
that right. No, I didn't really, but anyhow, let's move on,
(23:21):
so you know, and his point is we're giving up
the value add part of the business.
Speaker 6 (23:26):
Look at the value within Fonterra, and they're saying it's
not as big as people think. And all those are
public data to have a look at. And I'd say,
where is our best investment ten years. I haven't got
a crystal ball that will go that far. I can't
even do next week. We don't know what will happen,
but a liberation of point seventy percent of GDP that
(23:47):
will make a significant difference to the whole of the economy.
Speaker 4 (23:51):
Yep.
Speaker 2 (23:51):
And I think Miles Horror and Peter McBride are reasonably
smart people. You'll probably put my faith in those guys. Anyhow,
we'll see what happens. Interesting time in the dairy industry,
of course, with all the acquisitions coming from our good
friends at Open Country Dairy. It's all on. It's game
on Jacqueline.
Speaker 6 (24:07):
It is and Meerika made the point it's too small
in New Zealand. You know we think they're big fishes,
but were actually quite tiny. Meeraka has said it's very
difficult being a small operator and it's better to be
with somebody bigger.
Speaker 2 (24:22):
Yeah, and that's Mark Delatour's point exactly on yesterday's show.
Thanks as always for your time. People can read your
column It's the margin Stupid on our website The Country
dot co dot nz. Thanks Jenny, Thank you, Jacqueline twenty
four away from one, You're with the country. Not everyone
agrees with David Seymour and Bryce mackenzie. This is an
interesting text. New Zealand politicians are becoming increasingly populist or
(24:47):
straight up and competent. We are struggling for genuine vision
and long term prosperity for our country. I can't wait
for this generation of politicians to time out. There are
a lot of smart people in NZ agg and I'm genue.
Will he concerned if the consensus of n ZED farmers
agree with Bryce McKenzie. Send your feedback through on five
(25:07):
Double O nine. Up next Michelle with the latest and
rural news and we'll have sports news for you as
we count down to the Big Test at Eden Park
on Saturday, remembering the spring Box haven't beaten us there
since nineteen thirty seven when a young south and flanker
by the name of Ron Ward played. I think his
last test.
Speaker 6 (25:35):
So much.
Speaker 2 (25:38):
It is twenty away from one. You are with the Country.
He's the latest and rural.
Speaker 1 (25:42):
News, The Country's rurald news with Cob Cadet, New Zealand's
leading right on Lawnbower brand. Visit Steelford dot co dot
nz for your locals.
Speaker 7 (25:51):
Dargist and dearien Z directors Tracy Brown and Chris Lewis
have been reappointed unopposed to the derry n Zi board.
Dearienz Deputy chair Camera Henderson says this year's board of
director nomination period reflects the confidence farmers have in their
current leadership. The darian Zed Annual meeting will be heard
in Hamilton on Thursday, November sixth, twenty twenty five. We're
tracing Cris's reappointment. We formally acknowledged and that's rural news.
(26:14):
You can find more at the Country dot Co dot
Nz here.
Speaker 2 (26:16):
Here and they're both good people. Glad to see them back.
Speaker 1 (26:19):
Right sports with the afgo Kiwi to the bone since
nineteen oh four.
Speaker 2 (26:24):
Boxer Joseph Parker is set to headline London's o To
Arena against undefeated local prospect far Bo Wardley on October
the twenty fifth. I know of a young man in
Tolronga who runs a brilliant cleaning company called super Clean
for all your commercial cleaning needs in Taranga, who will
be very excited about that. The new Zealander, on a
(26:46):
six fight winning run, has been in a frustrating state
of limbo while waiting on governing bodies to determine whether
he'll get to challenge Alexander Usik for the coveted undisputed
status and spring box coach Arrassi Arrasthmus will make a
decision on Thursday whether it is Captain c Calisi is
(27:09):
fit to play against the All Blacks at Eden Park.
How good is that test going to be on Saturday?
In fact, Michelle, how good is Saturday going to be
the Stags defending the Shield against Canterbury at Rugby? Park
I was just thinking, I hope it's bloody cold there,
(27:30):
mind you. The Cantabrians are sort of used to that. Look,
we don't want no disrespect to canterburyan crop, but we
don't want the shield to go back there. You've had
it enough. Keep it in the little places it belongs
in Southland for the summer. Up next, a US farming correspondent,
Todd Clark.
Speaker 6 (28:02):
Walking.
Speaker 2 (28:04):
He's our guy in Lexington, Kentucky, bluegrass country. A US
farm and correspondent, Todd Clark. They're just ending their summer.
It's been very dry, Todd since we last chatted to
you late July. In fact, the Mississippi River, which ultimately
drains half or more of the USA, is dangerously low.
Speaker 4 (28:26):
Good afternoon, Jamie. That's exactly right. And it's amazing how
much the weather has changed. And I guess as farmers
we all know that. But since the last time we talked,
we were we had hit our annual amount of rainfall
in six months. And then the tap is shut off.
(28:46):
And it's not just shut off for Kentucky, it's shut
off for a huge portion of the eastern portion of
the United States, including the corn Belt and all of
the down the delta of the Mississippi, and so because
of that, it's caused most of the crops corn, soybean,
(29:08):
sweet cotton to not finish, and so it was a
really tough year to begin with. Wet in the spring,
couldn't get the crops out, and now they can't finish
the crops off and get good yields, and then the
prices they're depressed. So it's not a good time in
US agriculture at the moment, other than beef.
Speaker 2 (29:27):
Yeah, well, I was going to say, ultimately, one man's
misfortune is another man's good fortune. This is not going
to help the drought with rebuilding the US beef herd.
So there's probably a silver lining, as much as it
pains me to say this to you, Todd for New
Zealand beef.
Speaker 4 (29:43):
Farmers, probably so other than the tariffs, and we've talked
a lot about that, but the outside of that, yes,
the demand still remains. Since the last time we've talked,
the beef prices continue to go up. You know, it's
not like the last year where they've doubled on themselves.
(30:05):
But it's weekly. We get reports from across not only Kentucky,
but once again the eastern portion of the United States
and even out into the plains states of record prices
for various sizes of cattle, and so it can't go
much higher than it is now, I wouldn't think, But
(30:26):
every week it does. And so it's good times for beef,
but not so much for corn and soybeans and cotton,
rice and all the other crops.
Speaker 2 (30:37):
Mark Twain famously said, the reports of my death are
greatly exaggerated. And there was reports floating around over the
weekend that Trump had died because he was missing an action.
They hadn't seen him for two days, but he turned
up on a golf course, true to form now when
it comes to Trump and as tariffs. I also heard
a report about Las Vegas, sun city being the bellweather
(31:02):
or the barometer for the US economy and how it
was really struggling. So is the US economy really battling
at the moment, because I note, for instance, your equity
markets are at an almost all time high.
Speaker 4 (31:14):
Yeah, but the the that that is the truth about Vegas,
Vegas has taken a step back. My wife Kristen has
just returned a couple of weeks ago from being out
there and commented on that it's that it wasn't busy
like normal, but equity markets and things like that. While
it affects everyone, just your everyday American is really feeling
(31:39):
the pinch. Inflation has really come down, but the prices
are still high for food, gas that sort of the
gas is backed up some. But housing, just the cost
of rent and houses across the US. A starter home
in Lexington is now two hundred and sixty thousand dollars,
(32:02):
so that's your cheapest entry level house, and so just
everything costs so much in Yeah, there's a little bit
of treading water happening with the US economy at the moment. Todd.
Speaker 2 (32:14):
I know you're coming over to New Zealand early next year,
looking forward to hosting it. You'll be amazed at our
housing prices, even though they're stagnating at the moment. Two
hundred and sixty thousand US dollars, what's that? Maybe just
less than five hundred thousand. New Zealand wouldn't buy you
that much here.
Speaker 4 (32:31):
Oh really, Yeah, it is interesting, but that's yeah, it
makes you wonder about your the next generation. You know,
in my case, my kids, what they're going to be
able to afford. But I'm sure my parents worried about
the same thing. And their parents about them. So with
a good attitude, we'll get through this. But it's it
(32:52):
depends on where you are in this economy as to
how you're doing at the moment. In the low income
people are really struggling, and there's a huge number of
those people in the US and they're they're struggling at
the moment.
Speaker 2 (33:08):
Hey got to go, Todd, Thanks for some of your time.
And I do hope you get some rain and Lexington,
Kentucky and the drought ends.
Speaker 4 (33:16):
Thanks Jammy, I appreciate it.
Speaker 5 (33:17):
Mug you back.
Speaker 2 (33:22):
My last two struggles.
Speaker 3 (33:24):
Let you never knowing why when roll.
Speaker 2 (33:30):
What a great voice the king had. It is six
away from one year with the country. Phil Duncan to
wrap it from weather Watch. Now here's a question for you, Phil,
it's a hearty annual. Has spring started or do we
wait for the equinox?
Speaker 4 (33:45):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (33:46):
No, spring has started. From a weather point of view,
We've got affect textbook textbook, classic spring weather on the
way with lots of cold fronts mixed in with high
pressure zones, so we have windy weather at times. We've
got the squawly showers on the western side, and most
of the rain leads to the west, with over the
next two weeks the West coast getting you know, two
(34:08):
hundred to children fifty millimeters at least on the central
part of the West coast, and the eastern parts of
the country are leaning drive than usual, or at least
leaning drive in that being so it's kind of a
normal windy, warm, cold, you know, all mixed up kind
of month coming up.
Speaker 2 (34:26):
It's a bitterly cold day at the bottom of the country.
I'm glad my days as a sheep farmer and being
on the landing beat are done. It'd be too soft
for it now, Phil. But following these southwest changes we
do get a high coming and that's just the spring pattern.
But we do need to be worried about frosts, or
the horticulturists do.
Speaker 5 (34:45):
Yes, there are a lot of moving parts in spring,
and this week high pressure actually comes in over the
North Island around about Wednesday, and most of the country
gets the more settled weather. The winds finally stayed out,
but as a result of that it means obviously we
get frost back again, so the South Island particularly frosty
Wednesday and Thursday, although the frost do reduce on Thursday,
(35:07):
the North Island's not looking quite so frosty, but it
is possible, especially in central parts of the North Island
on Wednesday morning, but by the end of the.
Speaker 4 (35:15):
Week frost disappear.
Speaker 5 (35:16):
Windy weather kicks in spring light in many parts of
the country, but in the South Island. In comes the
next polar change that moves up the North Island on
Saturday with a few thunderstorms and heavy showers again coming
off the Tasman and by the time we get to Sunday,
polar airflow covers the entire nation, so where we're back
to feeling like winter on Sunday with this polar air
going right up north of New Zealand.
Speaker 2 (35:38):
I was talking well to Mike Petterson a wee bit
earlier in the week, who was just saying, in Hawk's Bay,
for instance, they're just getting a tad dry.
Speaker 4 (35:47):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (35:47):
In fact, you know, Hawk's Bay has been sort of
in the central southern parts of Hawk's Bay, there have
been some pockets of dry weather that started back in
summer and hasn't been repaired during winter. In fact, despite
all the rain that we had the start of winter,
which called flooding all over the place and places that
normally are dry like Nelson Hawks. They missed out on it,
so that rain shadow is going to remain and possibly
(36:08):
get a little worse over the next couple of weeks.
As again, I think the westerly flow won't save the
rain going into that area yet.
Speaker 2 (36:15):
Okay, you game enough to go out to Saturday Eden
Park seven pm.
Speaker 5 (36:20):
So there is a cold front moving into Auckland on
Sunday and Saturday. Sorry, and I literally mentioned this in
my weather video today. That timing of that front is
the thing that's going to be the hardest part because
it's moving up the North Island downpours during the day.
They should clear in the evening, but they might go
on a little bit longer. It's a little bit hard
to not.
Speaker 2 (36:40):
Okay, Phil Duncan there from weather Watch, he's our top
weather man on a Monday and a Tuesday in this case,
leave you with a wee bit of Alvis. Catch you
back tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (36:56):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to Brent, your specialist in
John Deere machinery,
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