September 22, 2025 • 38 mins
Jamie Mackay talks to Ben Picton, Chris Webb, Rob Penney, and Susan Harris.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie mckue. Thanks to Brent, your specialist in
John Dee machinery into the.
Speaker 2 (00:46):
List, Get Any Zell and Welcome to the Country. The
show's brought to you by Brant Phil Collins and Genesis
(01:06):
Land of Confusion.
Speaker 3 (01:08):
That sums up my morning.
Speaker 2 (01:10):
I know what it's like on the farm when everything
goes wrong. You know, the tractor gets a flat tire,
someone leaves the gate open, all these things that can
make your day terrible. I've had one of those mornings
this morning, but that's been a first whorld problem. Technology
is my kryptonite, so I'm migrating to a new phone
because the old phone the battery was running out. I'd
(01:33):
be happy to stay with the old phone, but we
have so many security settings and add ons here at
ENZ and Me that I was almost on the verge
of losing it. But luckily Michelle came to the rescue,
got me a coffee, got me back on track, and
I've sort of made a bit of a recovery after
sulking a wee bit earlier this morning. We've got some
really interesting interviews coming up on the show today Susan
(01:57):
Harris is a signists at Green Experts Limited, a New
Zealand based sustainability consultancy involved in numerous carbon and land
management projects.
Speaker 3 (02:11):
That's the blurb that goes on a CV.
Speaker 2 (02:15):
She got me and she was knocking on an open
door when it came to climate change when she said
huge pieces of Antarctica. Because I read this online. With that,
I've got to talk to this woman. Are not falling
off because of livestock commissions. Rather, she says we should
be global leaders and a much better investment for New
(02:36):
Zealand would be to two in her words, developed some
diplomatic bottle and lobby the IPCC to remove livestock commissions
from the Paris Climate Agreement. And, without wanting to sound
like Bryce McKenzie or Lourie Patterson, I agree with Susan
Harris on this one. She's written a really interesting piece.
We're going to try and compress it down for you into.
Speaker 3 (03:00):
Bites. What do you do eat an elephant? One bite
at the time.
Speaker 2 (03:04):
I'm going to kick it off A Ben Picton Rabobanks
macro Strategists out of the Sydney office. That A means
he's the senior economist last week's dismal GDP numbers. It
is bad news. But the one bit of good news
in there is for interest rates. We talked to Haley
moynihan yesterday formerly of Rabobank and scaler up. Harley's on
(03:24):
that monetary policy committee. They will meet. The Reserve Bank
Monetary Policy Committee will meet on October the eighth. And
good news for you farmers, business people, homeowners out there
is you are going to get a considerable drop in
your interest rates that's providing your floating but even fixed rates.
I think they're going to reset those, maybe a wee
bit lower. We'll give you the inside oil on that one.
(03:48):
And this is a huge week in New Zealand for rugby.
We've got a Bledisloe Cup test in Auckland. We haven't
lost to the Aussies there since now nineteen eighty six.
Got an email from a guy by the name of
Rob Penny. I'm thinking it can't be the same bloke.
(04:08):
It was Crusader's coach wanted me to talk to one
of his mates, a former Wallabies manager who's right into
high performance agribusiness and who's got a group of high
profile Australian farmers in New Zealand as we speak, we're
going to find out what they are up to. Chris
warere web get it right and Rob Penny shortly on
(04:29):
the country. But up next, Ben Pickton, let's head to Sydney.
Ben Pickton is a macro strategist in layman's terms, that's
kind of like a senior economist for Rabobank. Ben interst rates.
(04:52):
We had a zero point nine percent fall in GDP
last week. It's changed the environment or the outlook for
of straits.
Speaker 3 (05:00):
How low can we go?
Speaker 4 (05:03):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (05:03):
Good, Jamie.
Speaker 6 (05:04):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (05:04):
The GDP report that came out, it was I think
fair to say it was a shocker, really bad number,
negative point nine percent to the quarter, and especially in
the context of what the ARBON said was expecting. So
they were expecting the economy to shrink but only by
zero point three percent, so it's quite a big miss.
(05:26):
The economy was performing worse than expected in the second
half of the year and as a result, our view,
certainly and the view of many other banks I'm seeing,
is that the RBNZ is probably going to do more
to try to support the economy to get demand moving again,
because the gap between demand and supply is now wider
(05:48):
than they thought.
Speaker 6 (05:49):
Demand is.
Speaker 5 (05:51):
Further below supply than what they previously thought, and that
opens up risks for unemployment and also for inflation. Sort
of persistently undershue ing their target.
Speaker 2 (06:01):
Has the Reserve Bank completely cocked this up. The cure
is much worse than the original disease.
Speaker 5 (06:08):
Well, I guess there's there's going to be different views
on that. It depends whether you think inflation is worse
than recession. I guess if you if you lose your
job in a recession, that's that's disastrous. If you if
you have high rates of inflation over the long term,
it's maybe not immediately disastrous as long as you're holding
(06:28):
on to your job, but it is corrosive to the
economy over the longer term. It does make things a
lot harder for household than businesses. So the RB and
Z has an inflation mandate that is agreed with the government.
They're making policy according to their mandate. In one sense,
(06:49):
they've they've achieved their mandate. They've got inflation back under control.
Speaker 2 (06:52):
But yeah, but at what costs? Right, let's have a
look October the hits the OC or the Reserve Bank
meet again they'll do their OCR review and it's going
to be good. A former stable mate of yours, Hailey moynihan.
All these days, Hailey Gorley is going to be on
that Monetary Policy Committee. We talked to Hailey on yesterday's show. Look,
(07:12):
it's as sure as night follows day. They're going to
drop fifty basis points, aren't they.
Speaker 5 (07:18):
Well, that's our expectation. We've updated our view to include
a fifty basis point cut in October worth remembering that
they actually considered cutting by fifty basis points back in
August and ultimately they decided not to. Since then, we've
had that shocker GDP report where it's showing that the
economy was actually in worse shape than what they thought.
(07:39):
So to our mind, that makes a fifty basis point
cut more likely.
Speaker 2 (07:44):
Of more interests. Perhaps will be what they do in November.
Speaker 5 (07:49):
Yeah, so we have another meeting at the end of November,
and then there's a big break until the next meeting,
which doesn't happen until sort of the middle of February
next year. So the question is do they have a
little bit more stimulus over that Christmas period just in
case it's needed. I suspect they probably will. We've got
(08:09):
a twenty five basis point cut canciled in for November
as well. We sort of always expected that to be
the case, and now we've added in that extra big
cut in October because of the poor GDP figures.
Speaker 2 (08:22):
So we're currently sitting at three percent. We take off
fifty basis points for October and then another twenty five
and November. That gets us down to two point two
five percent. Could we potentially go again in February and
get down to two percent, because let's face it, a
few months ago, no one was ever picking that.
Speaker 5 (08:43):
Yeah, we may, we may do. I still think that
that's less likely than remaining at two point twenty five.
And the reason why is because we are seeing some
signs of a little bit of an upturn in some
sectors of the economy. So household consumption, which is really
important part of the economy, has grown for the last
two quarters in a row. We are seeing rise and
(09:07):
consumer confidence. We have seen a recovery in business confidence.
And the other thing we've got to remember as well
is that there's a huge stock of mortgages out there
in New Zealand that will be resetting from higher interest
rates onto lower interest rates over the next six months.
So almost half of the total mortgage book in New Zealand.
So that's going to be a big cash flow boost
(09:29):
to the household sector and we would expect that to
drive economic growth in the months ahead.
Speaker 2 (09:35):
So if you're a fan, I know you're going to
duck the cover on this one. But I think it's
an important question if you're a farmer, a business person
or a homeowner coming off a fixed rate, now do
you fix now or do you just sit on floating
and see what happens? Because are some of these fixed
deals going to get better over the next few weeks
(09:56):
or months.
Speaker 5 (09:58):
Well, I guess a question of how much risk are
you are you happy to take? So you know, everyone
will have a different risk tolerance and they'll they'll have
different sensitivities, you know, a different sleep at night factor
on how much change in interest rates they're willing to wear.
Our view is that we might see a little bit
(10:19):
of a creep lower in six rates over the next
few months. But having said that, we are looking at
this this expected stimulus where people are resetting on the
lower variable rates to charge up the economy. And usually
when the economy starts gathering pace, you would start to
(10:40):
see fixed rates drifting higher. So maybe a little bit
more of a dip, but then higher after that is
probably our thoughts.
Speaker 2 (10:46):
A couple to funish on your reserve bank came out. Yes,
THATDA perhaps stated the obvious. Don't expect prices to go
back to pre COVID levels. No surprise there.
Speaker 5 (10:56):
No, I don't think so. They are kind of stating obvious.
But but it does take people back a little bit
because what they're saying is that you need to differentiate
between the rate of change of prices and the level
of prices. So in Australia we're close to the inflation
target two and a half percent, but that means prices
(11:17):
going up two and a half percent every year. So
when we say we've got inflation under control, that doesn't
mean the prices are going to go back down to
what they were before. It just means that they're going
to be increasing more slowly in the future.
Speaker 2 (11:31):
And let's just finish on your Prime minister elbow. He's
getting the elbow the cold shoulder yet again from the Trumpster.
Speaker 5 (11:39):
Yeah, it seems to be really tricky for our lad
to score a meeting with Donnie Trump. He's been trying
for months and months. He got sidelined a little bit
of the G twenty meeting and now at the United Nations,
and unfortunately for him, it's become a bit of a thing.
The media really drums it up in Australia. So yeah,
(12:00):
I guess a little bit uncomfortable for the Prime minister.
Speaker 3 (12:02):
Are you a rugby fan?
Speaker 5 (12:05):
I don't really follow it that much, to be honest,
I'm more of a cricket fan.
Speaker 2 (12:09):
You realize there's a ledders Low Cup game on Saturday
in Auckland, a very important one. You haven't won there
since nineteen eighty six.
Speaker 5 (12:16):
Oh is that right?
Speaker 3 (12:17):
Yeah, Well I'm wasting my time with my rugby trivia
on you Ben.
Speaker 5 (12:22):
Yeah, well, I know it's a point of prize for
New Zealanders. I have said that the Wallabies are getting better,
but I'm not sure that we're good enough yet to
win in New Zealand.
Speaker 2 (12:31):
Well you're not going too badly anyhow. I'm going to
talk to an Ossie. You are former manager of the
Wallabies who knows a bit more about footy than you do.
But thankfully you know plenty about the economy as a
good macro strategist should have been picked them out of
Rabobanks Sydney office. Thank you very much for your time
today on the country to Chamny. Good on you, Ben
and yes said Ozsie is waiting in the wings. He's
(12:53):
going to be on the show next. Chris web into
high performance sport and high performance agribusiness. Rob Penny's going
to make a cameo appearance as well. Got lots before
the end of the hour. You get some interesting emails
(13:17):
in this job. A few weeks ago I got one
from a guy by the name of Rob Penny, and
I'm thinking, where the hell have I heard that name before?
Can't be the same bloke who's coaching the Crusaders. It
turns out it was he wanted to connect me up
with one of his Ozzie mates who's got a really
interesting background and high performance not only in sport but
also in agri business. Let's start with you, Chris Webb.
(13:39):
What's your relationship with Rob Penny? And why is Rob
Penny emailing me out of the blue.
Speaker 5 (13:46):
It's a big.
Speaker 4 (13:46):
Question, joby. Yeah, a Rob and I used to stare
each other across the sideline when I was a team
manager of the war Atars and he was at the
Crusaders and then when he came to Waratas we were
connected a little bit. We also both worked in Japan
at the same time a Rob was a head coach
(14:07):
of one of the company teams, and I was involved
with the Sumbles, which was the super rugby franchise in
Japan at the time, as well as the as well
as the national team, and obviously we had a lot
of cross over in connection with players, and so Rob
and I became mates. And we both have a rural background,
(14:28):
so there's a little bit of connection there. But obviously
great rugby break that the years and a very successful one.
And I always loved calling the Rob because I used
to learn a lot and so we stayed connected over
the years. I decided to bring a group to New
Zealand that was a high performance theme farm tour that
incorporated sports knowledge as well as agri business and.
Speaker 6 (14:51):
I bounced it off for Rob over a cop of coffee.
Speaker 4 (14:53):
In Double Bay in Sydney one day and he said, mate,
I'd love to be a part of that. So here
we are.
Speaker 2 (14:57):
This is just a group of well healed Ossie farmers
who are on the booze for the Bledderslough Chris.
Speaker 4 (15:03):
Be honest, pretty much. I think we're master writing it
very very well.
Speaker 3 (15:08):
Rob Penny.
Speaker 2 (15:09):
What's your rural background, Because once we'd exchanged a few
emails and I got to formally identify you, you said
you listen to the country.
Speaker 3 (15:17):
I was toughed.
Speaker 6 (15:19):
Well I do. Yeah, I really enjoy the royal aspects.
And my family were all of them except for me,
were born out in Kurwee on the family farm, and
then my parents came to town and I was an
afterthought and popped out. And I've got a lot of
relations up Oxford that are in dairy and mixed cropping
(15:41):
and have a big interest in it. Yeah, and still,
you know, I think about the rural community and the
way in Whitsord impacts on our economy, and you know,
if we can I still think we've got the capacity
to do all things, do the right thing by the
ecology and the economy, and I I just think that
we've got to get better mixing those two things up,
(16:03):
and yeah, we can do all things so.
Speaker 2 (16:06):
Well, Rob Penny. Everyone needs a life after rugby or footy.
In your case, maybe you could buy a farm because
you're making lots of money as a professional rugby coach.
Speaker 6 (16:16):
Mostly good farming land there at planted and pine trees mate,
which is a bit of concern, so getting access to
some decent land might be an issue.
Speaker 3 (16:25):
Yeah, you made a very good point there, Rob, Penny Chris,
we're back to you. What's the connection.
Speaker 2 (16:30):
We know you're sporting connection and connection with Rob, but
how does the agri business tie in? What's your background there? Yeah?
Speaker 4 (16:37):
No, thanks, Jamie. We always laugh and I often say
when I had a real job before professional rugby, I
was a son of a Stockham station agent on the
mid north coast of New South Wales and we had
the beef cattle property as well. I became a rural
property valuer and I work in regional and rural New
South Wales as a property valuer. And when I stopped
(17:02):
with rugby full time because I needed to probably spend
a little bit more time at home, I wanted to
reconnect with my old mates and so we decided to
get back into the agri sector. And I think the
learnings that I've had over the years through a sport
and high performance principles, it's easily relayed to the agribusiness
(17:23):
sector and a lot of the people were definitely in
New Zealand, but also Australia as well as rugby people
and Rob and I discovered that today that the interest
and the relayability I suppose of what we do in
high performance sport or in any matter really can definitely
convert to agribusiness around getting a little bit better and
(17:45):
I suppose squeezing a bit more juice out of Elemon.
Speaker 2 (17:47):
Well, as we speak, you're just finishing a tour to
the Black Origin Farm. I don't know where it is,
but I think Andy ellis another good Canterbury rugby names
involves there. You're about to have lunch and methan and
then you're off to Terrace Downs this afternoon. You're bringing
your golf clubs with you. You'll be hoping those winds
(18:09):
die down a bit in Canterbury.
Speaker 5 (18:11):
Christ Well, we definitely are.
Speaker 4 (18:13):
We're sporting all the right gear for it. I'm pretty
sure we're going to have to buy a few extra
boxes of balls because ourselves these are used to those
high land conditions. But listen, we're having a fantastic time.
We've been had some amazing hosts who have showed us
a few of time and we're really enjoying it. Made
so we couldn't be happier with.
Speaker 6 (18:36):
The type of people that.
Speaker 4 (18:37):
Are welcoming us and learning off as well, so it's
been good for us.
Speaker 2 (18:41):
You arrived in christ Church last Friday. Did you get
to the Shield Challenge on Saturday?
Speaker 4 (18:46):
We absolutely definitely did. We had the whole group plus
a few mates. Andy Ellis and his family joined us,
and a couple of farmers, the Rights from down at
Mount Summers joined us as well, and we were sitting
in the Andrew Merton suite and it was a fantastic
game of rugby, but we all had our Cannabury scarfs.
Speaker 6 (19:07):
On and the ran fairly.
Speaker 4 (19:09):
Shield went south unfortunately, but we got to see a
streaker and some fantastic rugby, so it was amazing experience.
Speaker 2 (19:15):
Well, Rob Penny, I know you won't agree with me.
It's good to share the love around scent it to
some of the smaller places.
Speaker 6 (19:23):
Look, I'm a big advocate. Loved the Shield, being involved
with it a lot and had the honor of being
on the right end of it and the wrong end
of it several times. But the beautiful thing about it
that's trying traditions to that Loge would have remained strong
throughout all the provinces. And I know, you know, you
(19:44):
made the comment that it may not be as appreciated
and Kennabry, I can guarantee there's some heartbroken boys wandering
around the Canterbury environment this week and there was last
week in Tasman when they got within one point. And
as you know, it'll lift the lift the spirits of
Otago too. They'll be they'll be rejoicing in the glove
(20:05):
at the moment.
Speaker 2 (20:06):
Rob Penny, did you enjoy catching up with all those
well high profile, large scale Ossie farmers yesterday.
Speaker 6 (20:14):
Yeah, they're highly intellectual, but over the top. For me,
I'm a pretty simple bloke. But they really nice, nice
bunch of men, and you know, once you get the dust,
the yellow or the gold off them, you know they're
just genuine people at the end of the day and
love their fuddy and love their farming. And it's a
(20:36):
great combo.
Speaker 2 (20:36):
Chris, what is the rest of the week hold for
your touring group of Ozzie farmers. I know it's going
to culminate with the Bledderslope Cup game in Auckland at
Eden Park on Saturday. What's on between Tuesday lunchtime and then.
Speaker 4 (20:52):
Yeah, we've got a couple more places to look at.
Tomorrow we get we're going up into the Gorge and
Mount Hut. We're going to Mount Hut Station and another
group called clear Dale Station, which is an Angus breoit
of air Blake by the name of Ben Todd Hunter.
They've been fantastic to us, so we're going to spend
a little bit of time with them. We're going to
(21:12):
enjoy a bit more nice red meat as well as
some red wine too. I hope Thursday we fly up
to Aukland, we take the group up there, and Friday
we're spending some time with some old rugby mates as
well with the group, including some of the Wallaby tourists.
There's a couple of players not traveling with the team,
so Nick White and Tommy Right are actually going to
(21:35):
spend some time with us and then maybe we can't
wait to watch the game on Saturday at Eden Park.
For rugby followers, coming and getting a seat over here
for a Brother's Cup is an amazing experience that every
wealthy fan wants to experience.
Speaker 6 (21:50):
So with a bit of luck.
Speaker 4 (21:52):
The boys play well and we put in a good showing.
But that's what the rest of the week looks like
for us.
Speaker 2 (21:57):
Hey, Rob Penny. All Blacks are never played two tests
badly in a role history would suggest they don't. Eden
Park is their fortress. I reckon and Chris won't agree
with us. They'll win the Bledisload Cup game in Auckland.
But God my goodness, should I say it's going to
be game on and Perth?
Speaker 3 (22:14):
What do you reckon?
Speaker 6 (22:15):
I think it's going to be a good contest anyway,
But I agree with the Auckland such a tough place
for oppositis and sides to come and try to win,
particularly after the way you know it went down against
South Africa there in Wellington. So I think the All
Blacks will bounce. I think there'll be a lot of
emotion around that. And Scoot is just the man to
lead them. He's an incredible player and Scott Barrett and
(22:37):
he'll have the boys right where they need to be.
But as you say, there's a bit of travel heading
across to Perth. Not the easiest place to play. It's
a long travel over there, and the Ausies will be
backing themselves there, I'm sure yeah, and.
Speaker 2 (22:51):
Some of the critics of Scott Barrett are forgetting that
a few weeks ago, only a few weeks ago, he
was arguably the man of the match in that defeat
of the spring Box Eden Park. I'm with you, I
reckon he'll bring it again, okay, Chris web final word
for you as a former Ossie rugby manager twice. I
think you've managed Eddie Jones twice. That must have been
(23:11):
fun along with Dave Rennie. What do you reckon? How
do you reckon this is going to play out for
you and your Assie mates on Saturday.
Speaker 4 (23:18):
Well, listen, any contest against the All Blacks we look
forward to. I was lucky enough to be with the
team and been part of the group that's played at
Eden Park over many years. I have to say we
only ever won there once and I was with the
Waratahs and it was in the lead up to the
two eleven World Cup with it actually knocked the standdown,
(23:39):
so I'm pretty sure our boys didn't think they were
actually playing there, but we managed to get it. Went
up against Auckland. But I listen, it's a hell of
a fortress and the Auckland supporters. You know they are
black through and through, but I can't wait to see
them play.
Speaker 5 (23:56):
Our boys are having a proper.
Speaker 6 (23:57):
Crack at the moment.
Speaker 4 (23:58):
I think they will put them under the All Black
Team honners some pressure, but it's just whether they can
sustain that.
Speaker 2 (24:04):
Chris Webb, former Wallaby's manager, also high performance man and
not only agribusiness but sport. I wish you all the
best and hope you get a bonus point. Rob Penny,
thank you very much for listening to the country.
Speaker 3 (24:15):
We'll keep you on.
Speaker 6 (24:16):
Oh love, it's a pleasure. I really enjoy it. Let
everyone in the rural community keep that stuff because the
country needs you more than you.
Speaker 2 (24:22):
But it is twenty four away from one.
Speaker 3 (24:32):
Here is Michelle with the latest and rural.
Speaker 1 (24:34):
News, the country's world news with Cob Cadet, New Zealand's
leading right on lawn Bower brand. Visit steel for dot
co dot Nz for your local stockist.
Speaker 7 (24:44):
An Altis Group chair has all but shut down a
letter penned by a group of farmers wanting to recapitalize
the embattled process of themselves as providing false hope. Five
current shareholders have pulled together with what they describe as
an alternative finance proposal to prepay its des money from
capital raised from farmers retaining profits as well as selling
non essential assets. You can find more about that story
(25:07):
business desk or on air we've site. But to use
some commentary on.
Speaker 2 (25:10):
That too, Jael, Well, I'll come back to that one
because I know most of those five farmers. But we
better we've got we need to rattle our DAGs to
use a sheep farming analogy there.
Speaker 3 (25:20):
His sport sport with AFCO.
Speaker 1 (25:24):
Visit them online at AFCO dot co dot nz.
Speaker 2 (25:27):
It's not all about forty this weekend the Ryder Cups
on and Team USA are Golf Captain Keegan Bradley wants
more creativity from his fellow Americans on the support front
during the Ryder Cup starting on Friday at Bethpage Black
at the Bethpage Black Course. The first time Boss thinks
Team Europe chants are more creative and fun than his compatriots,
(25:51):
simply ranting you with the USA and talking about such.
American President Donald Trump's expected to delay his arrival at
Golf's Rider Cup on Friday and a bid to ease
fares over security driven congestion at the New York golf Course.
Wouldn't that just ripped unity. We're going to see the
Rider Cup and then trump stuffs the whole thing up
(26:11):
up next if we can find Susan Harrison Northland, welcome
back to the country.
Speaker 3 (26:23):
Just getting the South organized.
Speaker 2 (26:24):
It's been one of those days, just struggling to get
a hold of Susan Harris. We're going to keep trying, Susan.
We'll go about to call you very very shortly.
Speaker 6 (26:33):
Hey.
Speaker 2 (26:33):
Just to follow on from what Michelle was talking about, So,
a group of Southland Farmers has sent a letter to
the Alliance Group Board, to the board and the banking
Syndicate wanting to have another crack at recapitalizing it themselves,
this time over a three year period, signed by Southland Farmers.
Mike Wilkins, a better or worse half of Donald Wilkins
(26:56):
netball coach Mark Gunton, he owns Mark Gunton owns Argyle Station.
Andrew Morrison, former chair of Beef and Lamb New Zealand,
James Anderson owns Arwa Terry Station, and Dave Pinckney owns
Glenaary Station. They're all within cooey of one another. In
northern South and beautiful farms. All of them especially are glenary.
(27:19):
So they reckon that the Dawn Meets offer appears to
significantly undervalue the business, wiping out around one hundred and
fifty million dollars in shareholder equity. So we're going to
try and get a hold of one of those blokes
on tomorrow's show to update that offer. But we're going
to go to a break and trial luck with Susan
Harris next.
Speaker 8 (27:41):
Lessen much.
Speaker 2 (27:49):
I think you'll find our next guest on the Country
an enlightening listen, if that makes sense. Her name is
Susan Harris. She's a principal scientist at greenex Spurts Limited
of New Zealand based sustainability consultancy. Now you've got me, Susan,
because you're knocking on an open door when it comes
to climate change for me with your headline piece that
(28:11):
I read online saying huge pieces of Antarctica are not
falling off because of livestock omissions.
Speaker 3 (28:19):
Hooray, welcome to the.
Speaker 8 (28:20):
Country, Thank you, Thank you, Jamie. That's good.
Speaker 2 (28:25):
Okay, Well let's start with you. What's your academic background
to be lecturing on this subject.
Speaker 8 (28:33):
Well, I've got a science degree honors degree from the
Taiga University and my first job was a government scientist
in the Ministry of Works way back and then I
moved into the corporate world in Australia and New Zealand
and rene consultancy in New Zealand called CpG. I was
(28:53):
chief scientist there for some time and then went into
my own business with my husband, who's a forester Green
Experts and we've been that's about ten years ago, now
twelve years ago, and we've been working in this space
for that time and most of our clients are farmers,
farmer clients involved in ets and forestry and farming all
(29:17):
over the country.
Speaker 2 (29:18):
Now you and I might agree to disagree on carbon farming.
I want to come back to that one, Susan Harris,
but this is where we absolutely agree. You say fossil
fuel emissions are the primary driver of dangerous climate change,
not livestock because my gimmont and I left science behind
in the fifth form, so I'm not very well qualified
to talk about it. There's been bovines and ovines emitting
(29:42):
methane since Adam was a cowboy. It's the fossil fuel,
it's man burning fossil fuels. That is the ultimate problem
when it comes to climate change, global warming.
Speaker 8 (29:52):
That's right, absolutely right. Cattle and sheep and goats and
camels have been around for twelve MILLIENIU and they make
absolutely no difference to Antarctica or anywhere else. The real
problem are the fossil fossil fuel emissions from energy plants.
(30:15):
That's definitely the real problem, and that's where the solution is.
Speaker 2 (30:19):
You're saying that those fossil fuel methane emissions have been
under reported by eighty percent for decades.
Speaker 3 (30:25):
What's your proof?
Speaker 8 (30:27):
It's an International Energy Agency report. They've been tracking this
for that time. I've also been keeping an eye on
the scientific literature in that period, and now it is
officially proclaimed by the International Energy Agency that methane emissions
from fossil fuel facilities have been under reported by eighty
(30:50):
percent over that three decade period.
Speaker 2 (30:54):
You say, attempts to reduce livestock emissions may be heroic,
but are ultimate the futile Yes.
Speaker 8 (31:03):
And I just looked this morning and the latest information
I found from Global statistics is that the largest energy
rise has been in terms of fossil fuel emissions has
been from natural gas two point five percent from twenty
four to twenty five. That's six times the livestock of
(31:25):
missions out of New Zealand. So that's six years worth
in one year of livestock emissions at its point is
trying to reduce livestock emissions at all.
Speaker 2 (31:37):
I'm going to quote you again because you've got some
very quotable quotes here. You say, ironically, New Zealand is
being penalized for its global leadership and clean energy and
an agriculture based economy. Other nations can look better in
inverted commas than New Zealand if they decarbonize their fossil
fuel dominated energy production and claim this as an achievement
(31:59):
when New Zlan already has mostly decarbonized its energy production,
and you bang on there yet again.
Speaker 8 (32:08):
Yes, well, it's what we call in science a false negative.
When you do any experiment, you have to zero everything
to a base, and if you don't do that, you
end up with false negatives or false positives. So you
have to be very keyful. How we set analytical background
(32:29):
before we start making pronouncements about these things.
Speaker 2 (32:33):
In the nineteen eighties, the Labor then Labor government nade
a pronouncement about agriculture. They got this totally wrong. They
said it was a sunset industry. You're claiming now that
the fossil fuel industry is a sunset industry, and I
think a lot of people would agree with you there.
But ultimately, can we ever get enough renewables to power
(32:53):
the planet?
Speaker 4 (32:55):
Oh?
Speaker 8 (32:55):
Yes, the technology is advancing greatly. There's now more event
spent on working on clean energy than dirty energy in
the whole planet, and that's why we have this reguard
action happening from the fossil fuel industry.
Speaker 2 (33:14):
You want to take natural livestock emissions out of the
Paris Climate Agreement, and I think once again that probably
makes sense. So you sort of post a girl for
Groundswell or something here, Susan no Well.
Speaker 8 (33:28):
I disagree with grounds Well on a number of issues,
but I agree with them on this one. The solution
to the problem for New Zealand and other agricultural countries
is to get natural animal emissions taken out of the
Paris Agreement.
Speaker 3 (33:45):
Does that it get out of jail free card for us? Though?
Speaker 8 (33:49):
No, it's not, because you've got to look at what
the impact will be whether or not we actually make
any difference to the global emission situation, and it's a
diverse usion. We need to focus on fossil fuels day.
Speaker 2 (34:03):
Well, well, plainly we're not going to make much difference
on a global scale or a pimple on the backside
of the US, Russia, China, India, the biggermitters.
Speaker 8 (34:13):
Yes, that's right. It's interesting that in the case of
methane emissions from fossil fuel plants, most of it is
good housekeeping, turning the tap off, keeping things properly so
the methane doesn't leak. And according to the International Energy Agency,
(34:33):
they could actually make a door out of it because
they would save themselves some product loss. So it's very
important to appreciate that you should spend your money on
what will make a real difference.
Speaker 2 (34:46):
So, Susan Harris, you want to take natural livestock emissions
out of the Paris Climate Agreement, I'd go along with
that one. You're saying a parallel better investment for New
Zealand would be to develop some day diplomatic bottle. You're
not pulling any punches there and lead the sixty eight
nations into lobbying the IPCC to remove natural livestock emissions
(35:11):
from said climate agreement. So you want us to be
world leaders, but not world leaders sacrificing ourselves on the
altar of climate change.
Speaker 8 (35:21):
Well it's not quite that bad. What I'm saying is,
let's focus our energy and money on things that will
actually make a difference. And as you commented earlier, New
Zealand is just very very small, very tiny. But we
can go knock on the door of our friends in
the agricultural world and say, hey, livestock commissions have never
(35:43):
threatened the planet. It's fossil fuels.
Speaker 2 (35:46):
Got to wrap this up, you and I. This is
like an agreement session here, Susan, So let's see if
we can disagree on something. Are you a carbon farmer?
Speaker 8 (35:55):
Personally? I'm not, but we have as your.
Speaker 3 (35:57):
Harby a carbon farmer. You've got a vested in just there.
Speaker 8 (36:01):
No, we don't own any property all carbon farms, but
we do buy and sell carbon credits as brokers on
behalf of our clients.
Speaker 3 (36:09):
So is ant carbon credits like the emperor's new clothes.
Speaker 8 (36:14):
No, because they're an economic instrument that makes emitters install
new technology, so they're less as if they're paying too
much in carbon credits and they have to put new
technology in that's the idea of it.
Speaker 2 (36:29):
We've mentioned Crownswell. Also, I think let's chuck federated farmers
into the mix. You disagree with federated farmers when it
comes to carbon farming, but surely we're getting it wrong
in this country, Susan Harris.
Speaker 3 (36:43):
We're not planting the right tree in the right place.
Speaker 8 (36:46):
Well, that may be true in some situations, but if
we again are sensible about this, it's another revenue for
farmers on unproductive.
Speaker 2 (36:56):
Leand Susan Harris out of Fine Ray, thank you very
much for you. It's been enlightning. I've enjoyed our chat.
Speaker 8 (37:02):
Thank you, Jamie. It's really good to have an open
discussion about these things.
Speaker 3 (37:08):
I agree with you, Susan.
Speaker 2 (37:09):
Well done, Principal scientist at Green Experts Limited. Up after
the break, we're going to wrap the Country, tell you
who's on the show tomorrow and give some of your feedback.
Wrapping the Country for a Tuesday Tomorrow Wednesday, of course
Prime Minister always kicks off the show. Really looking forward
(37:32):
to catching up with Claire Taylor, Scottish slash Pozzy these
days she found love in Australia. Nuffield Scholar she's been
on the show before. She's an absolute breath of fresh air.
And Jane Smith. You never die wondering what Jane Smith
thinks from her North Otago farm. Sometimes I think Jane
has too much time to think anyhow, She's always she's
(37:56):
always challenging, which is wonderful. Jane, if you are listening,
I'll be really interested to get your thoughts on what
Susan Harris just had to say. I found her really interesting,
found myself agreeing with a lot of stuff she said.
We need to show some diplomatic bottle and lead when
it comes to getting livestock emissions out of the Paris
(38:17):
Climate Agreement.
Speaker 3 (38:17):
We'll see you tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (38:21):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
podcast with Jamie McKay thanks to Brent, the starkest of
the leading agriculture brands.
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie mckue. Thanks to Brent, your specialist in
John Dee machinery into the.
Speaker 2 (00:46):
List, Get Any Zell and Welcome to the Country. The
show's brought to you by Brant Phil Collins and Genesis
(01:06):
Land of Confusion.
Speaker 3 (01:08):
That sums up my morning.
Speaker 2 (01:10):
I know what it's like on the farm when everything
goes wrong. You know, the tractor gets a flat tire,
someone leaves the gate open, all these things that can
make your day terrible. I've had one of those mornings
this morning, but that's been a first whorld problem. Technology
is my kryptonite, so I'm migrating to a new phone
because the old phone the battery was running out. I'd
(01:33):
be happy to stay with the old phone, but we
have so many security settings and add ons here at
ENZ and Me that I was almost on the verge
of losing it. But luckily Michelle came to the rescue,
got me a coffee, got me back on track, and
I've sort of made a bit of a recovery after
sulking a wee bit earlier this morning. We've got some
really interesting interviews coming up on the show today Susan
(01:57):
Harris is a signists at Green Experts Limited, a New
Zealand based sustainability consultancy involved in numerous carbon and land
management projects.
Speaker 3 (02:11):
That's the blurb that goes on a CV.
Speaker 2 (02:15):
She got me and she was knocking on an open
door when it came to climate change when she said
huge pieces of Antarctica. Because I read this online. With that,
I've got to talk to this woman. Are not falling
off because of livestock commissions. Rather, she says we should
be global leaders and a much better investment for New
(02:36):
Zealand would be to two in her words, developed some
diplomatic bottle and lobby the IPCC to remove livestock commissions
from the Paris Climate Agreement. And, without wanting to sound
like Bryce McKenzie or Lourie Patterson, I agree with Susan
Harris on this one. She's written a really interesting piece.
We're going to try and compress it down for you into.
Speaker 3 (03:00):
Bites. What do you do eat an elephant? One bite
at the time.
Speaker 2 (03:04):
I'm going to kick it off A Ben Picton Rabobanks
macro Strategists out of the Sydney office. That A means
he's the senior economist last week's dismal GDP numbers. It
is bad news. But the one bit of good news
in there is for interest rates. We talked to Haley
moynihan yesterday formerly of Rabobank and scaler up. Harley's on
(03:24):
that monetary policy committee. They will meet. The Reserve Bank
Monetary Policy Committee will meet on October the eighth. And
good news for you farmers, business people, homeowners out there
is you are going to get a considerable drop in
your interest rates that's providing your floating but even fixed rates.
I think they're going to reset those, maybe a wee
bit lower. We'll give you the inside oil on that one.
(03:48):
And this is a huge week in New Zealand for rugby.
We've got a Bledisloe Cup test in Auckland. We haven't
lost to the Aussies there since now nineteen eighty six.
Got an email from a guy by the name of
Rob Penny. I'm thinking it can't be the same bloke.
(04:08):
It was Crusader's coach wanted me to talk to one
of his mates, a former Wallabies manager who's right into
high performance agribusiness and who's got a group of high
profile Australian farmers in New Zealand as we speak, we're
going to find out what they are up to. Chris
warere web get it right and Rob Penny shortly on
(04:29):
the country. But up next, Ben Pickton, let's head to Sydney.
Ben Pickton is a macro strategist in layman's terms, that's
kind of like a senior economist for Rabobank. Ben interst rates.
(04:52):
We had a zero point nine percent fall in GDP
last week. It's changed the environment or the outlook for
of straits.
Speaker 3 (05:00):
How low can we go?
Speaker 4 (05:03):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (05:03):
Good, Jamie.
Speaker 6 (05:04):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (05:04):
The GDP report that came out, it was I think
fair to say it was a shocker, really bad number,
negative point nine percent to the quarter, and especially in
the context of what the ARBON said was expecting. So
they were expecting the economy to shrink but only by
zero point three percent, so it's quite a big miss.
(05:26):
The economy was performing worse than expected in the second
half of the year and as a result, our view,
certainly and the view of many other banks I'm seeing,
is that the RBNZ is probably going to do more
to try to support the economy to get demand moving again,
because the gap between demand and supply is now wider
(05:48):
than they thought.
Speaker 6 (05:49):
Demand is.
Speaker 5 (05:51):
Further below supply than what they previously thought, and that
opens up risks for unemployment and also for inflation. Sort
of persistently undershue ing their target.
Speaker 2 (06:01):
Has the Reserve Bank completely cocked this up. The cure
is much worse than the original disease.
Speaker 5 (06:08):
Well, I guess there's there's going to be different views
on that. It depends whether you think inflation is worse
than recession. I guess if you if you lose your
job in a recession, that's that's disastrous. If you if
you have high rates of inflation over the long term,
it's maybe not immediately disastrous as long as you're holding
(06:28):
on to your job, but it is corrosive to the
economy over the longer term. It does make things a
lot harder for household than businesses. So the RB and
Z has an inflation mandate that is agreed with the government.
They're making policy according to their mandate. In one sense,
(06:49):
they've they've achieved their mandate. They've got inflation back under control.
Speaker 2 (06:52):
But yeah, but at what costs? Right, let's have a
look October the hits the OC or the Reserve Bank
meet again they'll do their OCR review and it's going
to be good. A former stable mate of yours, Hailey moynihan.
All these days, Hailey Gorley is going to be on
that Monetary Policy Committee. We talked to Hailey on yesterday's show. Look,
(07:12):
it's as sure as night follows day. They're going to
drop fifty basis points, aren't they.
Speaker 5 (07:18):
Well, that's our expectation. We've updated our view to include
a fifty basis point cut in October worth remembering that
they actually considered cutting by fifty basis points back in
August and ultimately they decided not to. Since then, we've
had that shocker GDP report where it's showing that the
economy was actually in worse shape than what they thought.
(07:39):
So to our mind, that makes a fifty basis point
cut more likely.
Speaker 2 (07:44):
Of more interests. Perhaps will be what they do in November.
Speaker 5 (07:49):
Yeah, so we have another meeting at the end of November,
and then there's a big break until the next meeting,
which doesn't happen until sort of the middle of February
next year. So the question is do they have a
little bit more stimulus over that Christmas period just in
case it's needed. I suspect they probably will. We've got
(08:09):
a twenty five basis point cut canciled in for November
as well. We sort of always expected that to be
the case, and now we've added in that extra big
cut in October because of the poor GDP figures.
Speaker 2 (08:22):
So we're currently sitting at three percent. We take off
fifty basis points for October and then another twenty five
and November. That gets us down to two point two
five percent. Could we potentially go again in February and
get down to two percent, because let's face it, a
few months ago, no one was ever picking that.
Speaker 5 (08:43):
Yeah, we may, we may do. I still think that
that's less likely than remaining at two point twenty five.
And the reason why is because we are seeing some
signs of a little bit of an upturn in some
sectors of the economy. So household consumption, which is really
important part of the economy, has grown for the last
two quarters in a row. We are seeing rise and
(09:07):
consumer confidence. We have seen a recovery in business confidence.
And the other thing we've got to remember as well
is that there's a huge stock of mortgages out there
in New Zealand that will be resetting from higher interest
rates onto lower interest rates over the next six months.
So almost half of the total mortgage book in New Zealand.
So that's going to be a big cash flow boost
(09:29):
to the household sector and we would expect that to
drive economic growth in the months ahead.
Speaker 2 (09:35):
So if you're a fan, I know you're going to
duck the cover on this one. But I think it's
an important question if you're a farmer, a business person
or a homeowner coming off a fixed rate, now do
you fix now or do you just sit on floating
and see what happens? Because are some of these fixed
deals going to get better over the next few weeks
(09:56):
or months.
Speaker 5 (09:58):
Well, I guess a question of how much risk are
you are you happy to take? So you know, everyone
will have a different risk tolerance and they'll they'll have
different sensitivities, you know, a different sleep at night factor
on how much change in interest rates they're willing to wear.
Our view is that we might see a little bit
(10:19):
of a creep lower in six rates over the next
few months. But having said that, we are looking at
this this expected stimulus where people are resetting on the
lower variable rates to charge up the economy. And usually
when the economy starts gathering pace, you would start to
(10:40):
see fixed rates drifting higher. So maybe a little bit
more of a dip, but then higher after that is
probably our thoughts.
Speaker 2 (10:46):
A couple to funish on your reserve bank came out. Yes,
THATDA perhaps stated the obvious. Don't expect prices to go
back to pre COVID levels. No surprise there.
Speaker 5 (10:56):
No, I don't think so. They are kind of stating obvious.
But but it does take people back a little bit
because what they're saying is that you need to differentiate
between the rate of change of prices and the level
of prices. So in Australia we're close to the inflation
target two and a half percent, but that means prices
(11:17):
going up two and a half percent every year. So
when we say we've got inflation under control, that doesn't
mean the prices are going to go back down to
what they were before. It just means that they're going
to be increasing more slowly in the future.
Speaker 2 (11:31):
And let's just finish on your Prime minister elbow. He's
getting the elbow the cold shoulder yet again from the Trumpster.
Speaker 5 (11:39):
Yeah, it seems to be really tricky for our lad
to score a meeting with Donnie Trump. He's been trying
for months and months. He got sidelined a little bit
of the G twenty meeting and now at the United Nations,
and unfortunately for him, it's become a bit of a thing.
The media really drums it up in Australia. So yeah,
(12:00):
I guess a little bit uncomfortable for the Prime minister.
Speaker 3 (12:02):
Are you a rugby fan?
Speaker 5 (12:05):
I don't really follow it that much, to be honest,
I'm more of a cricket fan.
Speaker 2 (12:09):
You realize there's a ledders Low Cup game on Saturday
in Auckland, a very important one. You haven't won there
since nineteen eighty six.
Speaker 5 (12:16):
Oh is that right?
Speaker 3 (12:17):
Yeah, Well I'm wasting my time with my rugby trivia
on you Ben.
Speaker 5 (12:22):
Yeah, well, I know it's a point of prize for
New Zealanders. I have said that the Wallabies are getting better,
but I'm not sure that we're good enough yet to
win in New Zealand.
Speaker 2 (12:31):
Well you're not going too badly anyhow. I'm going to
talk to an Ossie. You are former manager of the
Wallabies who knows a bit more about footy than you do.
But thankfully you know plenty about the economy as a
good macro strategist should have been picked them out of
Rabobanks Sydney office. Thank you very much for your time
today on the country to Chamny. Good on you, Ben
and yes said Ozsie is waiting in the wings. He's
(12:53):
going to be on the show next. Chris web into
high performance sport and high performance agribusiness. Rob Penny's going
to make a cameo appearance as well. Got lots before
the end of the hour. You get some interesting emails
(13:17):
in this job. A few weeks ago I got one
from a guy by the name of Rob Penny, and
I'm thinking, where the hell have I heard that name before?
Can't be the same bloke who's coaching the Crusaders. It
turns out it was he wanted to connect me up
with one of his Ozzie mates who's got a really
interesting background and high performance not only in sport but
also in agri business. Let's start with you, Chris Webb.
(13:39):
What's your relationship with Rob Penny? And why is Rob
Penny emailing me out of the blue.
Speaker 5 (13:46):
It's a big.
Speaker 4 (13:46):
Question, joby. Yeah, a Rob and I used to stare
each other across the sideline when I was a team
manager of the war Atars and he was at the
Crusaders and then when he came to Waratas we were
connected a little bit. We also both worked in Japan
at the same time a Rob was a head coach
(14:07):
of one of the company teams, and I was involved
with the Sumbles, which was the super rugby franchise in
Japan at the time, as well as the as well
as the national team, and obviously we had a lot
of cross over in connection with players, and so Rob
and I became mates. And we both have a rural background,
(14:28):
so there's a little bit of connection there. But obviously
great rugby break that the years and a very successful one.
And I always loved calling the Rob because I used
to learn a lot and so we stayed connected over
the years. I decided to bring a group to New
Zealand that was a high performance theme farm tour that
incorporated sports knowledge as well as agri business and.
Speaker 6 (14:51):
I bounced it off for Rob over a cop of coffee.
Speaker 4 (14:53):
In Double Bay in Sydney one day and he said, mate,
I'd love to be a part of that. So here
we are.
Speaker 2 (14:57):
This is just a group of well healed Ossie farmers
who are on the booze for the Bledderslough Chris.
Speaker 4 (15:03):
Be honest, pretty much. I think we're master writing it
very very well.
Speaker 3 (15:08):
Rob Penny.
Speaker 2 (15:09):
What's your rural background, Because once we'd exchanged a few
emails and I got to formally identify you, you said
you listen to the country.
Speaker 3 (15:17):
I was toughed.
Speaker 6 (15:19):
Well I do. Yeah, I really enjoy the royal aspects.
And my family were all of them except for me,
were born out in Kurwee on the family farm, and
then my parents came to town and I was an
afterthought and popped out. And I've got a lot of
relations up Oxford that are in dairy and mixed cropping
(15:41):
and have a big interest in it. Yeah, and still,
you know, I think about the rural community and the
way in Whitsord impacts on our economy, and you know,
if we can I still think we've got the capacity
to do all things, do the right thing by the
ecology and the economy, and I I just think that
we've got to get better mixing those two things up,
(16:03):
and yeah, we can do all things so.
Speaker 2 (16:06):
Well, Rob Penny. Everyone needs a life after rugby or footy.
In your case, maybe you could buy a farm because
you're making lots of money as a professional rugby coach.
Speaker 6 (16:16):
Mostly good farming land there at planted and pine trees mate,
which is a bit of concern, so getting access to
some decent land might be an issue.
Speaker 3 (16:25):
Yeah, you made a very good point there, Rob, Penny Chris,
we're back to you. What's the connection.
Speaker 2 (16:30):
We know you're sporting connection and connection with Rob, but
how does the agri business tie in? What's your background there? Yeah?
Speaker 4 (16:37):
No, thanks, Jamie. We always laugh and I often say
when I had a real job before professional rugby, I
was a son of a Stockham station agent on the
mid north coast of New South Wales and we had
the beef cattle property as well. I became a rural
property valuer and I work in regional and rural New
South Wales as a property valuer. And when I stopped
(17:02):
with rugby full time because I needed to probably spend
a little bit more time at home, I wanted to
reconnect with my old mates and so we decided to
get back into the agri sector. And I think the
learnings that I've had over the years through a sport
and high performance principles, it's easily relayed to the agribusiness
(17:23):
sector and a lot of the people were definitely in
New Zealand, but also Australia as well as rugby people
and Rob and I discovered that today that the interest
and the relayability I suppose of what we do in
high performance sport or in any matter really can definitely
convert to agribusiness around getting a little bit better and
(17:45):
I suppose squeezing a bit more juice out of Elemon.
Speaker 2 (17:47):
Well, as we speak, you're just finishing a tour to
the Black Origin Farm. I don't know where it is,
but I think Andy ellis another good Canterbury rugby names
involves there. You're about to have lunch and methan and
then you're off to Terrace Downs this afternoon. You're bringing
your golf clubs with you. You'll be hoping those winds
(18:09):
die down a bit in Canterbury.
Speaker 5 (18:11):
Christ Well, we definitely are.
Speaker 4 (18:13):
We're sporting all the right gear for it. I'm pretty
sure we're going to have to buy a few extra
boxes of balls because ourselves these are used to those
high land conditions. But listen, we're having a fantastic time.
We've been had some amazing hosts who have showed us
a few of time and we're really enjoying it. Made
so we couldn't be happier with.
Speaker 6 (18:36):
The type of people that.
Speaker 4 (18:37):
Are welcoming us and learning off as well, so it's
been good for us.
Speaker 2 (18:41):
You arrived in christ Church last Friday. Did you get
to the Shield Challenge on Saturday?
Speaker 4 (18:46):
We absolutely definitely did. We had the whole group plus
a few mates. Andy Ellis and his family joined us,
and a couple of farmers, the Rights from down at
Mount Summers joined us as well, and we were sitting
in the Andrew Merton suite and it was a fantastic
game of rugby, but we all had our Cannabury scarfs.
Speaker 6 (19:07):
On and the ran fairly.
Speaker 4 (19:09):
Shield went south unfortunately, but we got to see a
streaker and some fantastic rugby, so it was amazing experience.
Speaker 2 (19:15):
Well, Rob Penny, I know you won't agree with me.
It's good to share the love around scent it to
some of the smaller places.
Speaker 6 (19:23):
Look, I'm a big advocate. Loved the Shield, being involved
with it a lot and had the honor of being
on the right end of it and the wrong end
of it several times. But the beautiful thing about it
that's trying traditions to that Loge would have remained strong
throughout all the provinces. And I know, you know, you
(19:44):
made the comment that it may not be as appreciated
and Kennabry, I can guarantee there's some heartbroken boys wandering
around the Canterbury environment this week and there was last
week in Tasman when they got within one point. And
as you know, it'll lift the lift the spirits of
Otago too. They'll be they'll be rejoicing in the glove
(20:05):
at the moment.
Speaker 2 (20:06):
Rob Penny, did you enjoy catching up with all those
well high profile, large scale Ossie farmers yesterday.
Speaker 6 (20:14):
Yeah, they're highly intellectual, but over the top. For me,
I'm a pretty simple bloke. But they really nice, nice
bunch of men, and you know, once you get the dust,
the yellow or the gold off them, you know they're
just genuine people at the end of the day and
love their fuddy and love their farming. And it's a
(20:36):
great combo.
Speaker 2 (20:36):
Chris, what is the rest of the week hold for
your touring group of Ozzie farmers. I know it's going
to culminate with the Bledderslope Cup game in Auckland at
Eden Park on Saturday. What's on between Tuesday lunchtime and then.
Speaker 4 (20:52):
Yeah, we've got a couple more places to look at.
Tomorrow we get we're going up into the Gorge and
Mount Hut. We're going to Mount Hut Station and another
group called clear Dale Station, which is an Angus breoit
of air Blake by the name of Ben Todd Hunter.
They've been fantastic to us, so we're going to spend
a little bit of time with them. We're going to
(21:12):
enjoy a bit more nice red meat as well as
some red wine too. I hope Thursday we fly up
to Aukland, we take the group up there, and Friday
we're spending some time with some old rugby mates as
well with the group, including some of the Wallaby tourists.
There's a couple of players not traveling with the team,
so Nick White and Tommy Right are actually going to
(21:35):
spend some time with us and then maybe we can't
wait to watch the game on Saturday at Eden Park.
For rugby followers, coming and getting a seat over here
for a Brother's Cup is an amazing experience that every
wealthy fan wants to experience.
Speaker 6 (21:50):
So with a bit of luck.
Speaker 4 (21:52):
The boys play well and we put in a good showing.
But that's what the rest of the week looks like
for us.
Speaker 2 (21:57):
Hey, Rob Penny. All Blacks are never played two tests
badly in a role history would suggest they don't. Eden
Park is their fortress. I reckon and Chris won't agree
with us. They'll win the Bledisload Cup game in Auckland.
But God my goodness, should I say it's going to
be game on and Perth?
Speaker 3 (22:14):
What do you reckon?
Speaker 6 (22:15):
I think it's going to be a good contest anyway,
But I agree with the Auckland such a tough place
for oppositis and sides to come and try to win,
particularly after the way you know it went down against
South Africa there in Wellington. So I think the All
Blacks will bounce. I think there'll be a lot of
emotion around that. And Scoot is just the man to
lead them. He's an incredible player and Scott Barrett and
(22:37):
he'll have the boys right where they need to be.
But as you say, there's a bit of travel heading
across to Perth. Not the easiest place to play. It's
a long travel over there, and the Ausies will be
backing themselves there, I'm sure yeah, and.
Speaker 2 (22:51):
Some of the critics of Scott Barrett are forgetting that
a few weeks ago, only a few weeks ago, he
was arguably the man of the match in that defeat
of the spring Box Eden Park. I'm with you, I
reckon he'll bring it again, okay, Chris web final word
for you as a former Ossie rugby manager twice. I
think you've managed Eddie Jones twice. That must have been
(23:11):
fun along with Dave Rennie. What do you reckon? How
do you reckon this is going to play out for
you and your Assie mates on Saturday.
Speaker 4 (23:18):
Well, listen, any contest against the All Blacks we look
forward to. I was lucky enough to be with the
team and been part of the group that's played at
Eden Park over many years. I have to say we
only ever won there once and I was with the
Waratahs and it was in the lead up to the
two eleven World Cup with it actually knocked the standdown,
(23:39):
so I'm pretty sure our boys didn't think they were
actually playing there, but we managed to get it. Went
up against Auckland. But I listen, it's a hell of
a fortress and the Auckland supporters. You know they are
black through and through, but I can't wait to see
them play.
Speaker 5 (23:56):
Our boys are having a proper.
Speaker 6 (23:57):
Crack at the moment.
Speaker 4 (23:58):
I think they will put them under the All Black
Team honners some pressure, but it's just whether they can
sustain that.
Speaker 2 (24:04):
Chris Webb, former Wallaby's manager, also high performance man and
not only agribusiness but sport. I wish you all the
best and hope you get a bonus point. Rob Penny,
thank you very much for listening to the country.
Speaker 3 (24:15):
We'll keep you on.
Speaker 6 (24:16):
Oh love, it's a pleasure. I really enjoy it. Let
everyone in the rural community keep that stuff because the
country needs you more than you.
Speaker 2 (24:22):
But it is twenty four away from one.
Speaker 3 (24:32):
Here is Michelle with the latest and rural.
Speaker 1 (24:34):
News, the country's world news with Cob Cadet, New Zealand's
leading right on lawn Bower brand. Visit steel for dot
co dot Nz for your local stockist.
Speaker 7 (24:44):
An Altis Group chair has all but shut down a
letter penned by a group of farmers wanting to recapitalize
the embattled process of themselves as providing false hope. Five
current shareholders have pulled together with what they describe as
an alternative finance proposal to prepay its des money from
capital raised from farmers retaining profits as well as selling
non essential assets. You can find more about that story
(25:07):
business desk or on air we've site. But to use
some commentary on.
Speaker 2 (25:10):
That too, Jael, Well, I'll come back to that one
because I know most of those five farmers. But we
better we've got we need to rattle our DAGs to
use a sheep farming analogy there.
Speaker 3 (25:20):
His sport sport with AFCO.
Speaker 1 (25:24):
Visit them online at AFCO dot co dot nz.
Speaker 2 (25:27):
It's not all about forty this weekend the Ryder Cups
on and Team USA are Golf Captain Keegan Bradley wants
more creativity from his fellow Americans on the support front
during the Ryder Cup starting on Friday at Bethpage Black
at the Bethpage Black Course. The first time Boss thinks
Team Europe chants are more creative and fun than his compatriots,
(25:51):
simply ranting you with the USA and talking about such.
American President Donald Trump's expected to delay his arrival at
Golf's Rider Cup on Friday and a bid to ease
fares over security driven congestion at the New York golf Course.
Wouldn't that just ripped unity. We're going to see the
Rider Cup and then trump stuffs the whole thing up
(26:11):
up next if we can find Susan Harrison Northland, welcome
back to the country.
Speaker 3 (26:23):
Just getting the South organized.
Speaker 2 (26:24):
It's been one of those days, just struggling to get
a hold of Susan Harris. We're going to keep trying, Susan.
We'll go about to call you very very shortly.
Speaker 6 (26:33):
Hey.
Speaker 2 (26:33):
Just to follow on from what Michelle was talking about, So,
a group of Southland Farmers has sent a letter to
the Alliance Group Board, to the board and the banking
Syndicate wanting to have another crack at recapitalizing it themselves,
this time over a three year period, signed by Southland Farmers.
Mike Wilkins, a better or worse half of Donald Wilkins
(26:56):
netball coach Mark Gunton, he owns Mark Gunton owns Argyle Station.
Andrew Morrison, former chair of Beef and Lamb New Zealand,
James Anderson owns Arwa Terry Station, and Dave Pinckney owns
Glenaary Station. They're all within cooey of one another. In
northern South and beautiful farms. All of them especially are glenary.
(27:19):
So they reckon that the Dawn Meets offer appears to
significantly undervalue the business, wiping out around one hundred and
fifty million dollars in shareholder equity. So we're going to
try and get a hold of one of those blokes
on tomorrow's show to update that offer. But we're going
to go to a break and trial luck with Susan
Harris next.
Speaker 8 (27:41):
Lessen much.
Speaker 2 (27:49):
I think you'll find our next guest on the Country
an enlightening listen, if that makes sense. Her name is
Susan Harris. She's a principal scientist at greenex Spurts Limited
of New Zealand based sustainability consultancy. Now you've got me, Susan,
because you're knocking on an open door when it comes
to climate change for me with your headline piece that
(28:11):
I read online saying huge pieces of Antarctica are not
falling off because of livestock omissions.
Speaker 3 (28:19):
Hooray, welcome to the.
Speaker 8 (28:20):
Country, Thank you, Thank you, Jamie. That's good.
Speaker 2 (28:25):
Okay, Well let's start with you. What's your academic background
to be lecturing on this subject.
Speaker 8 (28:33):
Well, I've got a science degree honors degree from the
Taiga University and my first job was a government scientist
in the Ministry of Works way back and then I
moved into the corporate world in Australia and New Zealand
and rene consultancy in New Zealand called CpG. I was
(28:53):
chief scientist there for some time and then went into
my own business with my husband, who's a forester Green
Experts and we've been that's about ten years ago, now
twelve years ago, and we've been working in this space
for that time and most of our clients are farmers,
farmer clients involved in ets and forestry and farming all
(29:17):
over the country.
Speaker 2 (29:18):
Now you and I might agree to disagree on carbon farming.
I want to come back to that one, Susan Harris,
but this is where we absolutely agree. You say fossil
fuel emissions are the primary driver of dangerous climate change,
not livestock because my gimmont and I left science behind
in the fifth form, so I'm not very well qualified
to talk about it. There's been bovines and ovines emitting
(29:42):
methane since Adam was a cowboy. It's the fossil fuel,
it's man burning fossil fuels. That is the ultimate problem
when it comes to climate change, global warming.
Speaker 8 (29:52):
That's right, absolutely right. Cattle and sheep and goats and
camels have been around for twelve MILLIENIU and they make
absolutely no difference to Antarctica or anywhere else. The real
problem are the fossil fossil fuel emissions from energy plants.
(30:15):
That's definitely the real problem, and that's where the solution is.
Speaker 2 (30:19):
You're saying that those fossil fuel methane emissions have been
under reported by eighty percent for decades.
Speaker 3 (30:25):
What's your proof?
Speaker 8 (30:27):
It's an International Energy Agency report. They've been tracking this
for that time. I've also been keeping an eye on
the scientific literature in that period, and now it is
officially proclaimed by the International Energy Agency that methane emissions
from fossil fuel facilities have been under reported by eighty
(30:50):
percent over that three decade period.
Speaker 2 (30:54):
You say, attempts to reduce livestock emissions may be heroic,
but are ultimate the futile Yes.
Speaker 8 (31:03):
And I just looked this morning and the latest information
I found from Global statistics is that the largest energy
rise has been in terms of fossil fuel emissions has
been from natural gas two point five percent from twenty
four to twenty five. That's six times the livestock of
(31:25):
missions out of New Zealand. So that's six years worth
in one year of livestock emissions at its point is
trying to reduce livestock emissions at all.
Speaker 2 (31:37):
I'm going to quote you again because you've got some
very quotable quotes here. You say, ironically, New Zealand is
being penalized for its global leadership and clean energy and
an agriculture based economy. Other nations can look better in
inverted commas than New Zealand if they decarbonize their fossil
fuel dominated energy production and claim this as an achievement
(31:59):
when New Zlan already has mostly decarbonized its energy production,
and you bang on there yet again.
Speaker 8 (32:08):
Yes, well, it's what we call in science a false negative.
When you do any experiment, you have to zero everything
to a base, and if you don't do that, you
end up with false negatives or false positives. So you
have to be very keyful. How we set analytical background
(32:29):
before we start making pronouncements about these things.
Speaker 2 (32:33):
In the nineteen eighties, the Labor then Labor government nade
a pronouncement about agriculture. They got this totally wrong. They
said it was a sunset industry. You're claiming now that
the fossil fuel industry is a sunset industry, and I
think a lot of people would agree with you there.
But ultimately, can we ever get enough renewables to power
(32:53):
the planet?
Speaker 4 (32:55):
Oh?
Speaker 8 (32:55):
Yes, the technology is advancing greatly. There's now more event
spent on working on clean energy than dirty energy in
the whole planet, and that's why we have this reguard
action happening from the fossil fuel industry.
Speaker 2 (33:14):
You want to take natural livestock emissions out of the
Paris Climate Agreement, and I think once again that probably
makes sense. So you sort of post a girl for
Groundswell or something here, Susan no Well.
Speaker 8 (33:28):
I disagree with grounds Well on a number of issues,
but I agree with them on this one. The solution
to the problem for New Zealand and other agricultural countries
is to get natural animal emissions taken out of the
Paris Agreement.
Speaker 3 (33:45):
Does that it get out of jail free card for us? Though?
Speaker 8 (33:49):
No, it's not, because you've got to look at what
the impact will be whether or not we actually make
any difference to the global emission situation, and it's a
diverse usion. We need to focus on fossil fuels day.
Speaker 2 (34:03):
Well, well, plainly we're not going to make much difference
on a global scale or a pimple on the backside
of the US, Russia, China, India, the biggermitters.
Speaker 8 (34:13):
Yes, that's right. It's interesting that in the case of
methane emissions from fossil fuel plants, most of it is
good housekeeping, turning the tap off, keeping things properly so
the methane doesn't leak. And according to the International Energy Agency,
(34:33):
they could actually make a door out of it because
they would save themselves some product loss. So it's very
important to appreciate that you should spend your money on
what will make a real difference.
Speaker 2 (34:46):
So, Susan Harris, you want to take natural livestock emissions
out of the Paris Climate Agreement, I'd go along with
that one. You're saying a parallel better investment for New
Zealand would be to develop some day diplomatic bottle. You're
not pulling any punches there and lead the sixty eight
nations into lobbying the IPCC to remove natural livestock emissions
(35:11):
from said climate agreement. So you want us to be
world leaders, but not world leaders sacrificing ourselves on the
altar of climate change.
Speaker 8 (35:21):
Well it's not quite that bad. What I'm saying is,
let's focus our energy and money on things that will
actually make a difference. And as you commented earlier, New
Zealand is just very very small, very tiny. But we
can go knock on the door of our friends in
the agricultural world and say, hey, livestock commissions have never
(35:43):
threatened the planet. It's fossil fuels.
Speaker 2 (35:46):
Got to wrap this up, you and I. This is
like an agreement session here, Susan, So let's see if
we can disagree on something. Are you a carbon farmer?
Speaker 8 (35:55):
Personally? I'm not, but we have as your.
Speaker 3 (35:57):
Harby a carbon farmer. You've got a vested in just there.
Speaker 8 (36:01):
No, we don't own any property all carbon farms, but
we do buy and sell carbon credits as brokers on
behalf of our clients.
Speaker 3 (36:09):
So is ant carbon credits like the emperor's new clothes.
Speaker 8 (36:14):
No, because they're an economic instrument that makes emitters install
new technology, so they're less as if they're paying too
much in carbon credits and they have to put new
technology in that's the idea of it.
Speaker 2 (36:29):
We've mentioned Crownswell. Also, I think let's chuck federated farmers
into the mix. You disagree with federated farmers when it
comes to carbon farming, but surely we're getting it wrong
in this country, Susan Harris.
Speaker 3 (36:43):
We're not planting the right tree in the right place.
Speaker 8 (36:46):
Well, that may be true in some situations, but if
we again are sensible about this, it's another revenue for
farmers on unproductive.
Speaker 2 (36:56):
Leand Susan Harris out of Fine Ray, thank you very
much for you. It's been enlightning. I've enjoyed our chat.
Speaker 8 (37:02):
Thank you, Jamie. It's really good to have an open
discussion about these things.
Speaker 3 (37:08):
I agree with you, Susan.
Speaker 2 (37:09):
Well done, Principal scientist at Green Experts Limited. Up after
the break, we're going to wrap the Country, tell you
who's on the show tomorrow and give some of your feedback.
Wrapping the Country for a Tuesday Tomorrow Wednesday, of course
Prime Minister always kicks off the show. Really looking forward
(37:32):
to catching up with Claire Taylor, Scottish slash Pozzy these
days she found love in Australia. Nuffield Scholar she's been
on the show before. She's an absolute breath of fresh air.
And Jane Smith. You never die wondering what Jane Smith
thinks from her North Otago farm. Sometimes I think Jane
has too much time to think anyhow, She's always she's
(37:56):
always challenging, which is wonderful. Jane, if you are listening,
I'll be really interested to get your thoughts on what
Susan Harris just had to say. I found her really interesting,
found myself agreeing with a lot of stuff she said.
We need to show some diplomatic bottle and lead when
it comes to getting livestock emissions out of the Paris
(38:17):
Climate Agreement.
Speaker 3 (38:17):
We'll see you tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (38:21):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
podcast with Jamie McKay thanks to Brent, the starkest of
the leading agriculture brands.
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