December 2, 2025 • 38 mins
Jamie Mackay talks to Christopher Luxon, Derek Daniell, Jen Corkran, and Jane Smith.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie mckaye thanks to Brent starkest of the
leading agriculture brands.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Marshall last far.
Speaker 3 (00:30):
Good afternoon and get a New Zealand. I'm Jamie McKay.
This is the Country Show's brought to you by Brent
Gonna kick it off with the Prime Minister. I caught
up with him earlier this morning. He was in a
car heading to Auckland Airport to head down to Hawks
Bay for the day because he has some farmer meetings
with Federated Farmers and Wayne Langford and the Hawks Bay
(00:52):
today Mystery Creek on Friday, so we chatted about all
sorts of things. Is he worried about another big drop
for point three percent in the GDT auction? The US
Business Summit is on today. Is PAMU on the chopping
block holding local body rates to two to four percent?
We'd all agree on that one, but is it realistic?
(01:15):
Derek Daniel, one of New Zealand's leading sheep breeders, wire Rapp,
a farmer. I saw one of his suchy hissans A
clever Marcus is a former Olympic bronze medalist at tennis,
very accomplished sports person. And one of his other boys
was on the tally the other day yesterday, I think,
and I dropped Derek a text and said that time
(01:36):
we had a yarn.
Speaker 4 (01:37):
So he's going to be on the show today.
Speaker 3 (01:39):
Gen Corchran from Rabobank record beef and lamb prices at
the moment. The dynamics around beef and lamb prices are
so much different at the moment to Derry. I mean
that's Derry's not a disaster, but it's moving down quickly.
It's a supplied equation. There's just too much of it
around the world. Conversely, just not enough beef, especially that
(02:03):
lean grinding beef that the Americans can't get enough of,
and lamb. Last man standing in the sheep industry could
be a very wealthy man indeed. And Jane Smith today
she's in Wellington, I think, with Lourie and Bryce from Groundswell.
It's their annual trip to chew the years of politicians
in Wellington.
Speaker 4 (02:23):
We'll catch up with Jane awe.
Speaker 3 (02:24):
But later in the hour and our countdown to Christmas continues,
We're going to give you the chance to win a
ship prize more about that later Chris lux and up next.
(02:53):
He's a busy man, as you'd expect with the bloke
running of the country. Christopher Luxe and PM kicks off
the show on a Wednesday. It is earlier on a
Wednesday as we pre record this because he's in a
car going to the airport. He's heading down to Napier
for a day out with the farmers and Wayne Langford
from Federated Farmers.
Speaker 5 (03:13):
Hey, how are you Jamie?
Speaker 6 (03:14):
Good to be with you?
Speaker 3 (03:15):
Are you grooming him for potential National Party candidacy Prime Minister.
Speaker 5 (03:20):
Look, I think he's doing a great job actually leading feeds.
He's doing a brilliant job. And you know they're really
good because they are really straight up to deal with
and you know they can play back very clearly what's
going on in the farming community. And I've got a
government that they know is backing them and we're all
in on the side of the farmers, which is great.
Speaker 3 (03:38):
Well, the last president of Federated Farmer's, David Seymour, pinched
him you better be careful. Winston hasn't got his eye
on Yolo.
Speaker 6 (03:46):
No.
Speaker 5 (03:47):
Look, I think now they've done a great job and
it's actually always very constructive because they've got a lot
of good resource, they've got good good thinking on policy.
And when you actually think about what we did and
what we committed to pre election and what we've gone
off and delivered and getting rid of the red tape
and getting something sort of for people, I think we've
been working together.
Speaker 3 (04:03):
Well, you had a US en Z business summit this morning.
We're doing great business with the US. But then I
look at our biggest export, not to the US by
the way, but around the world, dairy and another four
point three percent drop and the GDT auction overnight it
was signaled, and perhaps that number is not as bad
as it looks first up.
Speaker 4 (04:24):
But are you worried that.
Speaker 3 (04:26):
Our biggest export income is calling it's jets big time
at the moment?
Speaker 5 (04:30):
Well, no, I'm not, actually, and I think that's because
the long run sort of outlook for protein around the world,
whether it's through dairy, whether it's through red meat. Frankly,
you know, there's a global shortage and so there's more
demand and there is supply. I'm also you know, have
been very impressed with the knowledge that has built in
Fonterra even over recent years around the consumers that are
(04:51):
targeting and where they find them and how much money
they make from selling to them. You know, it is
a big world, Jamie. Out there there is eight billion
people and one hundred ninety five countries and there is
a world of massive opportunity for New Zealand. And so
what has been really good to see over the last
eighteen months is that as we've been opening up new
opportunities in the GCC or the UAA or what we're
(05:13):
you know what we're working hard on India and accelerating
the European FTA interaction earlier. You know, our our exporters
are getting in Fonterra included getting very agile at moving
around those markets. Is that we had this morning at
seven we had our US New Zealand business somebit as
you're alluding to, it's actually going on all day. But
our trade to the US is up eight percent and
that's despite having had a fifteen percent tariff applied. But
(05:36):
the good news, of course is that thirty percent of
our trades now the tariff's been removed, which helps beef
and kiwi fruit. So yeah, so I think there's I
think a different way of thinking about it is that
We're a small country. We have huge opportunity out there
in the world, and there's massive amounts of consumers moving
from poverty into the middle classes and they want better
quality food and that's good for us.
Speaker 3 (05:55):
Is Pamu on the chopping block. You've talked openly about
our set sales. But it's all very well to say
or sell Parmu off because it's not performing that well,
even though it's performing a wee bit better now, but
practically it would be very difficult to sell it or
even divest yourself from it.
Speaker 5 (06:11):
Yeah, the point I was just trying to make a
couple of weeks back was just sort of this idea
of what's called asset recycling. If you think about it,
the New Zealand government has money tied up in a
bunch of assets, and the question you've got to ask yourself,
a bit like Singapore and other places do, is well,
is that the best possible return and benefit that I
can create for the people of New Zealand.
Speaker 6 (06:30):
And so all I.
Speaker 5 (06:31):
Was trying to say is when I'd quickly looked at
the Palmu stuff, you know a while ago, it's about
two point four billion. I think it's one hundred and
thirty farms there. But they were getting a two to
three percent kind of return on that money. And the
question is, well, actually, is that a good amount of
capital and cash tied up in an asset that actually
could be recycled into another asset that could actually generate
(06:52):
a seven percent return from New Zealand, you know. And
so that was the conversation I was trying to have,
rather than get out of this sort of simplistic conversation
that has taken place around in New Zealand and the
past around assets sales.
Speaker 3 (07:03):
But if you sold Palme off Hoole a spail as,
surely you would crash the rural market, the property market.
Speaker 5 (07:08):
Well no, but what I mean, I haven't thought about that.
All I was just highlighting was as an example where
you've got two point four billion dollars of Zealand's money,
New Zealand taxpayers money, tied up in a set of assets.
And the question you should be reasonably able to ask
is is that the best use of that fund or
those funds or those moneyes is that getting the best return?
(07:28):
Is it working as hard as possible. It's a bit
like you know, when you chuck money into an investment
that's a standard two percent return, and you could be
getting a twelve percent return investing it somewhere else. My
job is to make sure that that balance sheet a
bit like your farmers have their own balance sheets. They don't.
They want to make sure that the every dollar is
working hard for them. And that's what that's the that's
(07:49):
the bigger question I was trying to play into, was
you know, we should make sure every dollar is working
hard for New Zealanders.
Speaker 3 (07:54):
Finally, while I applaud your attempt to keep local body
rates to four per I mean they've got completely out
of control.
Speaker 4 (08:02):
Is that realistic?
Speaker 3 (08:03):
Because basically central government's abdicated a lot of the fiscal
responsibility to local government. And how the hell are you
expecting local body authorities to keep their rates to two
point four percent when they've got millions or billions I'm
sounding like gold member there to spend on water infrastructure.
Speaker 5 (08:25):
Yeah, So a couple of things going on. One is,
if you say a step back, you know, this RMA
is just making it impossible to get anything done in
this country. So that's why you're going to see a
new RMA. We think there should be a forty six
percent reduction in people even needing consents, and we think, yes,
we've got to do a better job in central government
of setting some standards that actually doesn't just chuck a
(08:45):
whole bunch of complexity onto local government. But as part
of the RMA reform, then you got to ask the
question when actually local government isn't working, if we're really
honest with ourselves, and that's why we're getting rid of
regional counselors. But also while we're saying, you've got to
have a rates cap, and so if you look at
long run infrastructure like three Waters as you just identified,
that is outside of this because there's different structures of
(09:06):
long term debt financing you've put in place around those assets.
But realistically, if inflation's running at three percent, you know,
at the moment the last year, council rates are up
nine and a half percent, almost three times. If you're
you know, a senior who's on a fixed income, or
you're a young couple that have stretched into a house
and then you can't afford the rates and there's some
dumb stuff going on, Jamie. I mean, like in Wellington
(09:29):
they built a two million dollar public toilet block that
has a light show on it for Goden's sake. I mean,
like you know, it's just dumb, silly.
Speaker 3 (09:36):
But Wellington does dumb stuff all the time, well not
only at a local body level.
Speaker 5 (09:42):
Oh come on, you're just being mean now, you're just
being mean.
Speaker 4 (09:45):
Oh no, I agree with you.
Speaker 3 (09:46):
I think it was your local government minister Simon Watts
who said stop doing dumb stuff. And I'll tell you
a really good example next time you're in Dunedin, Prime Minister.
The Otaga Regional Council has built a monument a palace
to its own greatness. I've got three hundred and sixty
something people employed there and they're going to be disbanded.
I mean, why would they do that?
Speaker 5 (10:07):
Well, that's that's been the frustration, right, and you think
about some of the issues that your farmer's listening. Well,
I have had issues around consenting and just the rules
they provide district council and then regional council in central
government and we've just got way too much bureaucracy in
the joints. So we've got to get rid of it.
And that's partly why we're taking out regional councils. It's
also what we're saying to all counsels, look the households, businesses, farmers,
(10:31):
central government. Frankly, we've all had to manage within our
means and we expect you to do the same thing.
And when we see silly stuff going on and balance
sheets not being used appropriately, then actually I think putting
the cap in place in the band that we've talked
about two to four percent. Let you know we're going
to give a good go.
Speaker 4 (10:47):
Stop doing dumb stuff. We will leave it at that.
Speaker 3 (10:50):
Prime Minister, thanks for time, good luck in nap you
today with Wayne Langford.
Speaker 5 (10:54):
Thanks Jamie had a great week.
Speaker 3 (10:56):
Well indeed, here the Prime Minister on his way to
the airport this morning. He will be talking to a
whole bunch of farmers and Napier today. Apparently they had
a really good turnout in Taris last week and Mystery
Creek on Friday. If you want to go along and
chew the air of the Prime Minister and hear what
Wayne Langford and co. From Federated Farmers have to say. Look,
(11:18):
just breaking news coming on to my watch. Let me
see if I can find the story Carl's Costa.
Speaker 4 (11:25):
Where is it gone? Damn it? I love technology? Here
it is here on my watch.
Speaker 3 (11:29):
Former Police Commissioner Andrew Costa resigns from the Social Investment
Agency after damning IPCA report, and that is a breaking
news and that is a herald understands. So I think
you can probably take that as gospel. Andrew Costa is gone,
so we should be updating. Also the cricket from Hagleyoval,
(11:56):
New Zealand all out for two hundred and thirty one,
if only overs better than the ashes. The West Indies
in reply are thirty one for two. We're kicking off
our countdown to Christmas. Michelle will wander in here and
we'll do that one at the bottom of the hour.
And I did say it was I shouldn't have said
it a shit prize, but it kind of is because
(12:20):
what we're giving away today actually is about getting sheep
poos and counting the eggs in them so you know
how much to drench your sheep or your cattle From
the team at FACPAC. I'm sure Greg won't mind me
saying that. But up next to Derek Daniel, one of
the deepest thinking farmers I know in this country, he's
in the wire wrapper.
Speaker 4 (12:41):
He's up next.
Speaker 3 (12:58):
All around the country country today, Why are rapper Derek Daniel,
one of New Zealand's best known sheep breeders. Derek, I
know you've got some reasonable rain overnight. You're dry, not
unusual for this time of the year, but any rain
would be welcomed.
Speaker 6 (13:13):
Yeah.
Speaker 7 (13:14):
Look it's still raining here, Jamie. It's going to be
huge relief for people, especially out towards the coast because
there's a big rainfall gradient from the Terror Mountains and
then the Ruhens out to the coast. This will be
hugely appreciated in the Hawks Bay as well. It's going
to wake up the whole sheet and beef trading, lambs, etc.
Speaker 3 (13:36):
Well, sheep and beef and we're going to discuss this
with Jen Corkran from Rabobanks. I'll keep my powder dry away,
but a sheep and beef, beef and lamb going great
guns and it's all a supply and demand equation. The
dairies calling its jets.
Speaker 7 (13:50):
Yes, that's exactly what's happened minus four point three percent
last night with the dairy trade auction sheet and beef
riding high with shortage of beef around the world. And
funnily enough, Jamie, people love their red meat and they're
flocking back to red meat, and.
Speaker 6 (14:07):
That's good for us.
Speaker 7 (14:08):
But you have to keep in mind that we've had
a couple of really tough years. Most shedd and beef
farmers lost money two years ago and we've got.
Speaker 6 (14:18):
Makeup to do.
Speaker 7 (14:19):
The general population won't understand that, and they don't really
understand either that dairy has been the biggest factor in
increasing this prosperity of New Zealand over the last twenty years.
You don't see that in the media, but exports raising
from five billion to twenty six billion. That has enabled
(14:41):
us to buy cars and oil and coffee and so on.
We ride on the wave of dairy conversions.
Speaker 3 (14:49):
Interesting. I mean, the smartest politician in my lifetime was
John Key, and you know he famously said, rightly or wrongly,
where Fonterra goes, New Zealand goes. And there's a fair
but to that argument. You want to pick up on
an article in Farmers Weekly by one of my favorite
farming academics, professor Keith Woodford, on the average rate of
(15:09):
return for sheep and beef over the last five years. Now,
these numbers might be out of date now with these
record returns, but you're still not making a fortune.
Speaker 7 (15:18):
Yeah, a return on capital of zero point seven percent
health aesthetic, Yeah, and the five years before that I
think was one point nine percent. So what's causing this?
Price of land underpins everything. It's hard to beat a subsidy.
So this subsidy on carbon has meant that the price
(15:41):
of hill country in particular is escalated, and therefore the
return on capital from farming just does not match. So
that phase may be over, but we now have a
smaller supply of farmland. And the other factor, Jamie is
it's so easy to borrow money now. Prior to nineteen seventy,
(16:04):
I'm going back a long way, but it was really
hard to borrow money. So the price of houses, the
price of land was kept low. And then we had
a decade of high inflation in the seventies and the
bank thought, well, we have protection against we have a
butfe against someone going out of business because the price
of land just keeps going up. So they've just climbed
(16:26):
on that and they've leveraged the money supply hugely. And
here we are with houses which were eighty six hundred
average in nineteen seventy, eighty six hundred, more than one
hundred times high. So I've suggested to an economist or two,
maybe we should have an inflation rate of minus one
(16:49):
to minus three percent.
Speaker 3 (16:51):
Well, hang on, Derek, that's called stagflation. That's worse than inflation.
Speaker 7 (16:55):
Well, I don't know, is it really? I mean, at
some point, Jamie, you've got to have a reality check.
We've got a government borrowing seventy five million dollars a
day to prop up an unrealistic economy. When are we
going to face the music?
Speaker 3 (17:09):
Can I just go back to the carbon farming thing,
because I know you're hot under the collar about this,
and you are a farmer, forester. You grow lots of
pine trees. But right tree, right place? Do you think
the battle has been won against carbon farming. I think
in twenty years time, we're going to look back on
this as the worst ecological mistake we've made in the
history of this country.
Speaker 4 (17:29):
I hope I'm wrong.
Speaker 6 (17:31):
I totally agree.
Speaker 7 (17:32):
Look, it's been a tax forced on us by European
nations in particular, and it's under the false pretenses said
cabin dioxide is evil and methane is evil. And get this,
our negotiators in Paris rolled over and said grass does
(17:53):
not sequest a carbon dioxide.
Speaker 6 (17:55):
What a lie?
Speaker 3 (17:56):
So do you agree with my theory on this one?
And I'm sure you're well, sorry to interrupt here, but
most sheep and beef farms, especially the extensive ones, the
ones like you're operating, are totally carbon positive already. They
should be getting a check from the government, not an invoice.
Speaker 7 (18:12):
Yeah, wouldn't that be nice? And yeah, instead we've given
up revenue earning land. I think you were right in
saying before we started this broadcast that the world's going
to be a wash with trees and logs in twenty
thirty years time, and they'll be worthless and we will
have wasted a lot of land, a lot of employment,
(18:35):
and yeah, and will be poorer for it.
Speaker 6 (18:38):
Go broke. That's what's going on.
Speaker 3 (18:40):
No argument for me on that one. Are why rarely start?
Of course, one of our leading sheep breeders, you are
what are you breeding these days? You're still breeding the
noodies the sheep without any warlord? Is we all coming
back into vogue HEREK?
Speaker 7 (18:52):
Yeah, No, we sure are, But of course wooll prices
come up a bit, which is I think slowing down
the transition farmers who have decided that Wolve's a worthless
and they want to totally get out of sheep with wool.
But our two to thram selling this season, Yeah, we're
up a bit in numbers and Romney's are still popular
(19:15):
and it will be in the new year, Jomie, that
will test the market for our neody Ramlambs and our
Brazilians and so on.
Speaker 3 (19:24):
So that's a politically incorrect name for a sheep.
Speaker 6 (19:27):
Derek, Well, I don't know. I made it up.
Speaker 7 (19:30):
I don't know.
Speaker 6 (19:31):
I haven't been taken to court with it.
Speaker 3 (19:33):
Just you go broke, someone will have a crack at you.
Let me just finish with Daniel's theory of relativity and
I think this is a quote again from the seventies.
We're both guilty of going back there, Derek. But it's
just putting the price of wool into some historical context.
Speaker 7 (19:49):
But yeah, sure, you're a friend of mine. Phil Gascott
had his first year farming in nineteen seventy three. He
averaged two dollars fifty greasy for his wool. I mean
that's across everything, bellies, et cetera. The cost to share
a sheep was a twenty two cent twenty two cents,
and at that in that year, the New Zealand dollar
was buying a dollar forty nine American and that started
(20:12):
falling away. By nineteen eighty four it was forty four cents.
But I traveled overseas in the middle of nineteen seventy
five I exchanged all my hard earned dollars for American dollars.
I've got a dollar twenty nine American for every New
Zealand dollar. So we were riding high at that time,
and then we sunk to a huge low in the
(20:33):
nineteen eighties.
Speaker 6 (20:34):
It's been a long way back.
Speaker 3 (20:36):
Yeah, well, go to the UK now. It's not for
the fainthearted buying a pint over there.
Speaker 4 (20:40):
Derek. We could chat all.
Speaker 3 (20:41):
Day about your playboy days in the seventies, but I
haven't got time. Always good the chat, though, I joways,
enjoy your contribution here on the Country.
Speaker 6 (20:48):
Yeah, me too, Thanks Jamie.
Speaker 4 (20:50):
But thank you, Derek.
Speaker 3 (20:52):
It's twenty nine away from one yal with the Country
up next, Michelle, what's going to be in here? And
we're going to introduce our countdown so Christmas before the
end of the hour.
Speaker 4 (21:00):
Jen Corkran and Jane Smith.
Speaker 3 (21:09):
Welcome back to the country. The show's brought to you
by Brandt. I'm Jamie McKay, Shorty Michelle Watt. Were the
latest and rural news. But first farmers and growers looking
to score a win by getting ahead of the game
this summer. Well, Farmland's has got your back. Being prepared
for a dry summer spell, that's the one. Now's the
time to invest in your water infrastructure, you know, ensure tanks,
(21:29):
troughs and fittings and pipes are in good nick, preventing
nasties like pests, weeds and disease from eating away sum agains.
That's a win too, scoring a healthier return because your
animals were healthy. Healthier should I say another one? All
possible with the right animal management tools and products. Looking
slick for the social season, Well, that's just looking like
(21:50):
a winner, isn't it. Scrub up with new summer gear
from Farmlands that will take you from the paddock to
the pub. The team at your local farmland store or
your farmland technical field specialist, they're thinking, like you, what
do I need to get sorted to score a win
this summer? So that's suit of chat too, to get
some runs on the board head and store or order
(22:11):
through Farmland's pro or talk to your rap about Farmland's
summer office. It is twenty six away from one. Here's
the latest and rural.
Speaker 1 (22:22):
News, the country's world news with Cold Cadet, New Zealand's
leading right on lawn Bower Brand, visit steel for dot
cote onanz for your local.
Speaker 3 (22:31):
Stockist and Michelle Watt, you've got the three New Zealand
finalists for the Zander McDonald Award.
Speaker 8 (22:36):
That's right, they're announced this morning. Of course, the six
finalist all ups, so the three from New Zealand, three
from Australia, one from each will be selected in the
annual Impact someone announced there in March. The three from
New Zealand are Chloe Butcher Harries who is from the
Hawks Bay Cowan, Dally Wall who is from Wyketor and
Lana Marshall who is from Invercargo.
Speaker 3 (22:55):
Well, congratulations to those three New Zealand finalists today. Also,
now do you see what do you like what I'm
doing here? Does that sound exotic to you? Michelle?
Speaker 8 (23:06):
Maybe if you're from rob.
Speaker 3 (23:09):
Pot calling the kettle black Masquinada from Brazil six Sergio
Mendez and Brazil sixty six Just for Derek Daniel and
is politically incorrect breed of sheep called the Brazilians will
go no further right. I was a bit politically incorrect myself, Michelle,
I said, we've got a ship prize for you today,
but we kind of have because it's in that business.
(23:30):
It's from my good mates at fac pack, Greg Myrams.
I've known him for gee for twenty thirty years almost
Chesney my pet Ram attacked him and my Paddick and
gore another story for another day. And Brett Powell, the
chief executive, is in our golfing group. But anyhow so
they're kicking off the countdown to Christmas. A game changer
of a prize when it comes to parasite management thanks
(23:52):
to fac Pack. So from the team behind the farm
FECh testing platform, fac pack is a brand new DIY
fecal egg count production test. It's called Drench Smart DIY.
It's value to twelve hundred dollars. I realize all of
you out there aren't in the market for a worm
testing kit, but believe me, if you are, this is
(24:13):
the one you want. It's a complete kit with everything
you need to take samples and send them off to
the lab. Then you can see if your drench is working.
You see, that's the key to it all, helping you
protect your stock, you wallet in your future. If you
would like to win the Fecpac pack worth twelve hundred dollars,
text win and your name to five double O nine
(24:33):
only if you need it. Of course, we'll announce the
winner of the pack Drench Smart DIY Prize on tomorrow's show.
Speaker 4 (24:40):
Here's Sport.
Speaker 1 (24:42):
Sports on the country with a FCO business.
Speaker 3 (24:46):
Well done, okay, just updating the cricket. We're all out
for two hundred and thirty one Indies West Indies and
reply forty seven for two. Let's go to Newsboss and
see what else is on the sports news. Oh you
can listen into the acc Alternative comedy commentary collective on
iHeart if you want a fun commentary for the cricket.
(25:08):
Tennis great Serena or Williams appears to be one step
closer to a comeback at forty four years young, really,
and Tiger Woods is also pondering, I don't know why
they do this. They're great, they just need to leave
it lie. Tiger's talking about a return to golf as well.
He's had a disc replacement surgery in October, but has
only just been cleared to chip and put. He'd still
(25:30):
beat most people even without a back and relief for
Liam Lawson after official confirmation his Formula one career is
safe for next year, retaining his seat at Racing balls up. Next,
it is Jen Corchran from Rabobank.
Speaker 4 (25:53):
No one at.
Speaker 3 (25:53):
Rabobank and I love Rabobank. Dearely has a short title.
Let's introduce Jen Corkran. Let me find her title Rabo
Research Senior Animal protein Analyst. Hello, Jen, Welcome to the country.
How do you remember your own title?
Speaker 9 (26:08):
Good afternoon, Jamie. No, I definitely struggle to remember my
own job title at times, so it is a bit
of a mouthful, but basically looking at red meat most
of the time for my.
Speaker 3 (26:20):
Job, it's interesting the dynamics out there at the moment.
And we've talked about the GDT auction overnight and there
is under a bit of pressure at the moment. It's
all a supply and demand story. The price goes up,
they turn the tap on around the world and then
the price goes down. Now when it comes to red
meat at the moment, there's a different dynamic, whether it's
beef or lamb, because there's just not enough of it
(26:43):
around in the world at the moment, and that's why
our sheep and beef farmers are enjoying record prices.
Speaker 9 (26:49):
That's right, Jamie. So what we're seeing is really the
outcome of the lack of supply globally of red meat
and in particular beef. Of course, the niche sheep meat
that we're so good at exporting along with the Australians
as in demand too, and there's not as much of
that about. So we're seeing high prices across both sheep
(27:10):
meat and beef at the moment. End it's yeah, they're
at record highs.
Speaker 3 (27:13):
Well, we'll come back to the lamb because I understand
the farmers are getting eleven dollars a kilo, which is
fantastic money. But the beef, it's all about trump and
as hamburgers, let's face it, they can't get enough of
our lean grinding meat for their hamburgers.
Speaker 9 (27:28):
That's right. And this has been a story well told
this year, hasn't it in something that has been expecting
to continue and we expect to continue into the next
couple of years. So we've just released to report the
global beef quarterly, which looks kind of at the key
production regions for beef around the world in terms of
those exporting nations, and production is expected to decline again
(27:49):
next year. And we also are looking at just a
little bit less than one percent in a decline from
twenty twenty four levels this year in terms of that
total supply. Now, if we think demand is steady to
increasing globally, and it is at the moment, you know,
there's just not enough to go around. And in particular
that US market, which is sotant important for New Zealand,
is really demanding that lean trim to put in the hamburgers.
(28:12):
And we haven't seen any downside in that demand yet.
Speaker 4 (28:14):
Yes.
Speaker 3 (28:14):
And also I think late last week and we referred
to this one in Rural News, the fact that beef mince,
the old hardy staple, is no longer a cheap protein option.
I mean, it's more expensive than a lamb shop.
Speaker 4 (28:29):
I can't believe it.
Speaker 9 (28:30):
I know, it's crazy, isn't it, Jamie En. So for
the last about eighteen months, mince retail prices based on
the averages by stepsin z it has been slightly higher
than a kilo of lambtrops, which is wild because we think,
you know, that beef is the more affordable sort of
commodity beef option for us at the supermarket here in
New Zealand. But it's because that exact product is what
(28:53):
these markets in the US are really really wanting right now.
So we've seen an eighteen percent increase in that retail
price from October here to October this year, which is
quite a lot, so you know, well over twenty dollars
or twenty three dollars a kilo I think it is
on average for mints at the moment, So it's not
cheap for a keel of months to make your teddy
see your burgers.
Speaker 6 (29:11):
This the summer.
Speaker 3 (29:13):
Yeah, I know what I would pick if I had
a choice out of beef, mints and a lamb chop.
But anyhow, Look, it's just the supply and demand equation,
isn't it. And then of course when things get too expensive,
either other people jump in and supply them. That's not
that easy for red meat in the short term, or
the consumer substitutes to alternatives, and the alternatives in the
(29:36):
protein space, I guess there chicken and.
Speaker 9 (29:38):
Pork, Yeah, that's right, Jamie and what we tend to
see globally in these sort of situations is that while
you know, as these prices increase, and for beef, if
we're talking about the moment, as the price continue to
go up and up and up, at some point the
consumer is going to push back and say, okay, enough
is enough. I don't want to pay that price. And
what you start to see is people will start to
(29:59):
trade into some of those cheaper proteins such as poultry
and pork, although by less you know, volume of mints
and other things. But the other big one is that
some of those quick service restaurants globally, so if you
think of U cafc's and your McDonald's, the QSRs, they
are actually sort of offering more from that poultry space
(30:20):
as well. So grain prices are cheap globally, it's pretty cheap,
the afford to produce poultry quite quickly versus beef which
is really expensive. So they are feeling it as well
and actually having a bigger offering of some of these
other proteins, which will be one to watch I think
in twenty twenty six, and we might even see it
here in New Zealand. You know, as McDonald's talks about
how much more expensive it is. I think each petty
(30:41):
is about ten cents more at the moment for them,
So considering how many they are serving up, that add up,
so we might see more chicken on the menu. So
it'll be you know, evid beef consumers will need to
go hunting and still may perhaps pay a little bit
more for a next you two.
Speaker 3 (30:56):
Let's just finish on lamb. How sustainable are these prices
at present? Normally the normal cycle for lambs once the
main waning happens, which is happening around the country at
the moment, and the flood of stock come onto the market.
But there isn't really a flood of stock that the
lamb schedule goes down. Can it hold at eleven dollars
or even ten dollars?
Speaker 9 (31:16):
Yeah, So it's interesting, isn't it that price has been
holding steady sort of. The average AIRGH two price has
been holding steadied around that eleven dollar mark across the
North and South Islands over the last three four weeks,
and you know, we're expecting it to start to go
down any minute, but it seems, you know, processes are
still offering these prices Jamie. So we'll just have to
keep an eye on this. You know, we know that
(31:37):
the global demand is good, that average ex book price
that rich Waters are receiving for lamb is very strong
at the moment, and you know, therefore there's a good margin.
So we'll see what, you know, what that suppli does
as lambs start to come in, and whether that means
we see some softening. But you know, we normally might
see between dollar and a dollar fifty coming out of
the schedule, you know, through that peak supply, and at
(31:58):
the moment it hasn't started going down, and perhaps it's
a sign that it might not see the same softness
that we normally see. Given you know, perhaps leam surprise
about as similar as it was last.
Speaker 3 (32:08):
Year this year, Gee, your schedule bottoming out at ten bucks. Gee,
I think sheep farmers would take that. Grab that with
both hands. Jen Corkran Rabo Research Senior Animal protein Analyst.
Thanks for your time and I'll leave you in peace
to go and practice your title.
Speaker 9 (32:23):
Thanks Jamie.
Speaker 3 (32:26):
Thanks. Janet is thirteen away from run one. Remember text
one in your name to five double oh nine if
you want to win the Fechpak Prize. As the countdown
to Christmas kicks off today On the Country, got some
great prizes over the next couple of weeks. Up next
Jane Smith, who's in Parliament today.
Speaker 10 (32:44):
As who's the s mersh down.
Speaker 3 (32:53):
She's a north Otago farmer, former winner of the Balance
Farm Environment Awards, regular Hair on the Country, but she's
on the farm today. She's left the poor old Hobby
Blair to do the hard yards in north Otago because
she's in Wellington, the corridors of power, standing in the
Parliament lobby with the ground Swell team, Bryce Mackenzie, Lorrie Patterson,
(33:15):
Jamie McFadden and you, Jane Smith. What are you there
for to lower the average age of the delegation?
Speaker 5 (33:22):
Are you good as Jamie?
Speaker 10 (33:24):
Just to bring a bit of class to the scrutiny
in Parliament this week. So I don't know whether I'm
the heating dog or the hunt away. I'm probably more
the heating dog, just rounding them up, Jamie. So I
feel like a sort of a bunch of mixed age
Romney rams met loose in the streets of Wellington. So yeah,
I try to join them on their annual advocacy trip
to the Beehive and I've obviously got a list, a
(33:46):
list of things that I want to achieve today, and
we've had some really good meetings already. And yeah, and
to speak collectively, I guess on a number of fishes, Jamie.
Speaker 3 (33:55):
So Jane, I guess being called a romney rams better
than a wormy weather like you're called, mate, Damien O'Connor.
So the ground swell posts for those who haven't seen it,
fresh off the paddock and first through the drafting gate,
and Laurie looks like he's straight off the paddock. But
those blokes are true grassroots farmers. Are you getting any
cut through at Parliament? I know you had a meeting,
(34:16):
for instance, early this morning with the Prince of the
Province's Martua Shane Jones.
Speaker 10 (34:21):
Yeah, and that was really productive Jamie, and I guess
he was. He was saying, you know, we need to
continue as advocates, including the groundsile guys and myself, to
be a clear voice for the productive center. And you know,
Shane was very clear to point out we need confidence
with his certainty and any practical results deliver out there
for all businesses, not just farmers as well. So and
(34:45):
you know, again our productivity is one of the lowest
in the oe c D, so we need to be
really driving that force, Jamie, and I guess we're fortunate
and all four of us do a lot of OIA
so apecial information request during the year, and we've got
a lot of I guess that we need to be
putting forwards, you know, around the amount of TAXPAN money
that's going into things like the whole methane mitigations of BARKLL.
(35:07):
I think shame was a bit taken aback about how
much money is going in TEXTPAN money is going into that.
We're the gmover is going the RMA and local body reform.
No that's vaccinated given the given the announcement last week.
So looking forward to catching up with Chris Bishop and
Simon Watt's about that later on this afternoon. And I
guess the big questions around that in terms of used
(35:28):
to have taken a ministerial sledgehammer to councils, but what
does good lucks look like going forward? And we all
know how inflationary our rates have been over the past
few years. And it's interesting, Jamie, I was just thinking
this morning. You often talk about capital games text we
already have one of those it's called being a ratepayer
and essentially what are we getting to those services? And
(35:49):
you know these used to be catchment boards and basic
district councils and they've just become as obviously before Jamie,
the rider has become heavier than the horse, and you know,
the bureaucrat burden is just collapsing around them. So they
are to throw, you know, through the throw the baby
out with the bathwater. So we've got to be really
careful about what what what is the bathwater and what
(36:10):
is the baby in regards to that, Jamie, and protecting
property rights.
Speaker 3 (36:13):
At the same time, just before I let you go,
how are things in North Otago? Are you getting dry?
How's your season going?
Speaker 6 (36:19):
Yeah?
Speaker 10 (36:19):
Well, we certainly were, Jamie. And since you think I
was throwing the many A toto in the weekend thro
a cricket tournament and gosh, they were, you know, only
the outer side of the teconomy arranged commerce and they
looked fantastic through there.
Speaker 5 (36:30):
We were getting driver.
Speaker 10 (36:31):
Fortunately, I don't feel too guilty be away from home
today because we've had sort of fifteen to twenty mils
over the last day or so.
Speaker 5 (36:38):
So Steedy as she goes.
Speaker 10 (36:40):
Good things take time, and I think this will be
a real game changer and really pop up the lamb
and the beef market as well.
Speaker 3 (36:46):
Jamie, Good things take time. Laurie and Bryce. Look that
looked like in the picture they could front a Mainland
cheese ad.
Speaker 9 (36:53):
Well, they certainly could, Jamie.
Speaker 10 (36:54):
And look, I don't want to put a catamongst of
pigeons and be speaking out of turn here, but but
I was concerned when I to their hotels this morning
to take them up, and there's actually only one one
hotel room used for Laurie and Bryce. Jamie was in
his own one, and it's yeah, I don't want to
sugguce that they've been sharing a bit, but Laurie assures
me it's a sheep and sheep farmer austerity measure sharing
(37:17):
a room. So but you know, we're in Wellington next
celebrate diversity.
Speaker 3 (37:24):
That's our roomors start. Anyhow, Thank you very much for
your time from Wellington. Good luck in the corridors of
power this afternoon.
Speaker 4 (37:31):
Thanks Jennie, Thank you, Jane.
Speaker 3 (37:34):
Yes, I'm sure it's all above board with Laurie and Bryce.
I think where about those two? I can tell you
that right now anyhow, I just getting in trouble. I
can see that. I'm going to take a break, regather
and we're going to come back with some of your feedback. Okay,
Wrapping the Country the Windy's let me have a lock
(37:56):
sixty seven for two New Zealand all out this morning
for two hundred and thirty one. We'll catch you back
tomorrow with Miles Hurrell and the Prince of the Provinces.
Speaker 1 (38:08):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's The Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to Frent You're specialist in
John Deere construction equipment
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie mckaye thanks to Brent starkest of the
leading agriculture brands.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Marshall last far.
Speaker 3 (00:30):
Good afternoon and get a New Zealand. I'm Jamie McKay.
This is the Country Show's brought to you by Brent
Gonna kick it off with the Prime Minister. I caught
up with him earlier this morning. He was in a
car heading to Auckland Airport to head down to Hawks
Bay for the day because he has some farmer meetings
with Federated Farmers and Wayne Langford and the Hawks Bay
(00:52):
today Mystery Creek on Friday, so we chatted about all
sorts of things. Is he worried about another big drop
for point three percent in the GDT auction? The US
Business Summit is on today. Is PAMU on the chopping
block holding local body rates to two to four percent?
We'd all agree on that one, but is it realistic?
(01:15):
Derek Daniel, one of New Zealand's leading sheep breeders, wire Rapp,
a farmer. I saw one of his suchy hissans A
clever Marcus is a former Olympic bronze medalist at tennis,
very accomplished sports person. And one of his other boys
was on the tally the other day yesterday, I think,
and I dropped Derek a text and said that time
(01:36):
we had a yarn.
Speaker 4 (01:37):
So he's going to be on the show today.
Speaker 3 (01:39):
Gen Corchran from Rabobank record beef and lamb prices at
the moment. The dynamics around beef and lamb prices are
so much different at the moment to Derry. I mean
that's Derry's not a disaster, but it's moving down quickly.
It's a supplied equation. There's just too much of it
around the world. Conversely, just not enough beef, especially that
(02:03):
lean grinding beef that the Americans can't get enough of,
and lamb. Last man standing in the sheep industry could
be a very wealthy man indeed. And Jane Smith today
she's in Wellington, I think, with Lourie and Bryce from Groundswell.
It's their annual trip to chew the years of politicians
in Wellington.
Speaker 4 (02:23):
We'll catch up with Jane awe.
Speaker 3 (02:24):
But later in the hour and our countdown to Christmas continues,
We're going to give you the chance to win a
ship prize more about that later Chris lux and up next.
(02:53):
He's a busy man, as you'd expect with the bloke
running of the country. Christopher Luxe and PM kicks off
the show on a Wednesday. It is earlier on a
Wednesday as we pre record this because he's in a
car going to the airport. He's heading down to Napier
for a day out with the farmers and Wayne Langford
from Federated Farmers.
Speaker 5 (03:13):
Hey, how are you Jamie?
Speaker 6 (03:14):
Good to be with you?
Speaker 3 (03:15):
Are you grooming him for potential National Party candidacy Prime Minister.
Speaker 5 (03:20):
Look, I think he's doing a great job actually leading feeds.
He's doing a brilliant job. And you know they're really
good because they are really straight up to deal with
and you know they can play back very clearly what's
going on in the farming community. And I've got a
government that they know is backing them and we're all
in on the side of the farmers, which is great.
Speaker 3 (03:38):
Well, the last president of Federated Farmer's, David Seymour, pinched
him you better be careful. Winston hasn't got his eye
on Yolo.
Speaker 6 (03:46):
No.
Speaker 5 (03:47):
Look, I think now they've done a great job and
it's actually always very constructive because they've got a lot
of good resource, they've got good good thinking on policy.
And when you actually think about what we did and
what we committed to pre election and what we've gone
off and delivered and getting rid of the red tape
and getting something sort of for people, I think we've
been working together.
Speaker 3 (04:03):
Well, you had a US en Z business summit this morning.
We're doing great business with the US. But then I
look at our biggest export, not to the US by
the way, but around the world, dairy and another four
point three percent drop and the GDT auction overnight it
was signaled, and perhaps that number is not as bad
as it looks first up.
Speaker 4 (04:24):
But are you worried that.
Speaker 3 (04:26):
Our biggest export income is calling it's jets big time
at the moment?
Speaker 5 (04:30):
Well, no, I'm not, actually, and I think that's because
the long run sort of outlook for protein around the world,
whether it's through dairy, whether it's through red meat. Frankly,
you know, there's a global shortage and so there's more
demand and there is supply. I'm also you know, have
been very impressed with the knowledge that has built in
Fonterra even over recent years around the consumers that are
(04:51):
targeting and where they find them and how much money
they make from selling to them. You know, it is
a big world, Jamie. Out there there is eight billion
people and one hundred ninety five countries and there is
a world of massive opportunity for New Zealand. And so
what has been really good to see over the last
eighteen months is that as we've been opening up new
opportunities in the GCC or the UAA or what we're
(05:13):
you know what we're working hard on India and accelerating
the European FTA interaction earlier. You know, our our exporters
are getting in Fonterra included getting very agile at moving
around those markets. Is that we had this morning at
seven we had our US New Zealand business somebit as
you're alluding to, it's actually going on all day. But
our trade to the US is up eight percent and
that's despite having had a fifteen percent tariff applied. But
(05:36):
the good news, of course is that thirty percent of
our trades now the tariff's been removed, which helps beef
and kiwi fruit. So yeah, so I think there's I
think a different way of thinking about it is that
We're a small country. We have huge opportunity out there
in the world, and there's massive amounts of consumers moving
from poverty into the middle classes and they want better
quality food and that's good for us.
Speaker 3 (05:55):
Is Pamu on the chopping block. You've talked openly about
our set sales. But it's all very well to say
or sell Parmu off because it's not performing that well,
even though it's performing a wee bit better now, but
practically it would be very difficult to sell it or
even divest yourself from it.
Speaker 5 (06:11):
Yeah, the point I was just trying to make a
couple of weeks back was just sort of this idea
of what's called asset recycling. If you think about it,
the New Zealand government has money tied up in a
bunch of assets, and the question you've got to ask yourself,
a bit like Singapore and other places do, is well,
is that the best possible return and benefit that I
can create for the people of New Zealand.
Speaker 6 (06:30):
And so all I.
Speaker 5 (06:31):
Was trying to say is when I'd quickly looked at
the Palmu stuff, you know a while ago, it's about
two point four billion. I think it's one hundred and
thirty farms there. But they were getting a two to
three percent kind of return on that money. And the
question is, well, actually, is that a good amount of
capital and cash tied up in an asset that actually
could be recycled into another asset that could actually generate
(06:52):
a seven percent return from New Zealand, you know. And
so that was the conversation I was trying to have,
rather than get out of this sort of simplistic conversation
that has taken place around in New Zealand and the
past around assets sales.
Speaker 3 (07:03):
But if you sold Palme off Hoole a spail as,
surely you would crash the rural market, the property market.
Speaker 5 (07:08):
Well no, but what I mean, I haven't thought about that.
All I was just highlighting was as an example where
you've got two point four billion dollars of Zealand's money,
New Zealand taxpayers money, tied up in a set of assets.
And the question you should be reasonably able to ask
is is that the best use of that fund or
those funds or those moneyes is that getting the best return?
(07:28):
Is it working as hard as possible. It's a bit
like you know, when you chuck money into an investment
that's a standard two percent return, and you could be
getting a twelve percent return investing it somewhere else. My
job is to make sure that that balance sheet a
bit like your farmers have their own balance sheets. They don't.
They want to make sure that the every dollar is
working hard for them. And that's what that's the that's
(07:49):
the bigger question I was trying to play into, was
you know, we should make sure every dollar is working
hard for New Zealanders.
Speaker 3 (07:54):
Finally, while I applaud your attempt to keep local body
rates to four per I mean they've got completely out
of control.
Speaker 4 (08:02):
Is that realistic?
Speaker 3 (08:03):
Because basically central government's abdicated a lot of the fiscal
responsibility to local government. And how the hell are you
expecting local body authorities to keep their rates to two
point four percent when they've got millions or billions I'm
sounding like gold member there to spend on water infrastructure.
Speaker 5 (08:25):
Yeah, So a couple of things going on. One is,
if you say a step back, you know, this RMA
is just making it impossible to get anything done in
this country. So that's why you're going to see a
new RMA. We think there should be a forty six
percent reduction in people even needing consents, and we think, yes,
we've got to do a better job in central government
of setting some standards that actually doesn't just chuck a
(08:45):
whole bunch of complexity onto local government. But as part
of the RMA reform, then you got to ask the
question when actually local government isn't working, if we're really
honest with ourselves, and that's why we're getting rid of
regional counselors. But also while we're saying, you've got to
have a rates cap, and so if you look at
long run infrastructure like three Waters as you just identified,
that is outside of this because there's different structures of
(09:06):
long term debt financing you've put in place around those assets.
But realistically, if inflation's running at three percent, you know,
at the moment the last year, council rates are up
nine and a half percent, almost three times. If you're
you know, a senior who's on a fixed income, or
you're a young couple that have stretched into a house
and then you can't afford the rates and there's some
dumb stuff going on, Jamie. I mean, like in Wellington
(09:29):
they built a two million dollar public toilet block that
has a light show on it for Goden's sake. I mean,
like you know, it's just dumb, silly.
Speaker 3 (09:36):
But Wellington does dumb stuff all the time, well not
only at a local body level.
Speaker 5 (09:42):
Oh come on, you're just being mean now, you're just
being mean.
Speaker 4 (09:45):
Oh no, I agree with you.
Speaker 3 (09:46):
I think it was your local government minister Simon Watts
who said stop doing dumb stuff. And I'll tell you
a really good example next time you're in Dunedin, Prime Minister.
The Otaga Regional Council has built a monument a palace
to its own greatness. I've got three hundred and sixty
something people employed there and they're going to be disbanded.
I mean, why would they do that?
Speaker 5 (10:07):
Well, that's that's been the frustration, right, and you think
about some of the issues that your farmer's listening. Well,
I have had issues around consenting and just the rules
they provide district council and then regional council in central
government and we've just got way too much bureaucracy in
the joints. So we've got to get rid of it.
And that's partly why we're taking out regional councils. It's
also what we're saying to all counsels, look the households, businesses, farmers,
(10:31):
central government. Frankly, we've all had to manage within our
means and we expect you to do the same thing.
And when we see silly stuff going on and balance
sheets not being used appropriately, then actually I think putting
the cap in place in the band that we've talked
about two to four percent. Let you know we're going
to give a good go.
Speaker 4 (10:47):
Stop doing dumb stuff. We will leave it at that.
Speaker 3 (10:50):
Prime Minister, thanks for time, good luck in nap you
today with Wayne Langford.
Speaker 5 (10:54):
Thanks Jamie had a great week.
Speaker 3 (10:56):
Well indeed, here the Prime Minister on his way to
the airport this morning. He will be talking to a
whole bunch of farmers and Napier today. Apparently they had
a really good turnout in Taris last week and Mystery
Creek on Friday. If you want to go along and
chew the air of the Prime Minister and hear what
Wayne Langford and co. From Federated Farmers have to say. Look,
(11:18):
just breaking news coming on to my watch. Let me
see if I can find the story Carl's Costa.
Speaker 4 (11:25):
Where is it gone? Damn it? I love technology? Here
it is here on my watch.
Speaker 3 (11:29):
Former Police Commissioner Andrew Costa resigns from the Social Investment
Agency after damning IPCA report, and that is a breaking
news and that is a herald understands. So I think
you can probably take that as gospel. Andrew Costa is gone,
so we should be updating. Also the cricket from Hagleyoval,
(11:56):
New Zealand all out for two hundred and thirty one,
if only overs better than the ashes. The West Indies
in reply are thirty one for two. We're kicking off
our countdown to Christmas. Michelle will wander in here and
we'll do that one at the bottom of the hour.
And I did say it was I shouldn't have said
it a shit prize, but it kind of is because
(12:20):
what we're giving away today actually is about getting sheep
poos and counting the eggs in them so you know
how much to drench your sheep or your cattle From
the team at FACPAC. I'm sure Greg won't mind me
saying that. But up next to Derek Daniel, one of
the deepest thinking farmers I know in this country, he's
in the wire wrapper.
Speaker 4 (12:41):
He's up next.
Speaker 3 (12:58):
All around the country country today, Why are rapper Derek Daniel,
one of New Zealand's best known sheep breeders. Derek, I
know you've got some reasonable rain overnight. You're dry, not
unusual for this time of the year, but any rain
would be welcomed.
Speaker 6 (13:13):
Yeah.
Speaker 7 (13:14):
Look it's still raining here, Jamie. It's going to be
huge relief for people, especially out towards the coast because
there's a big rainfall gradient from the Terror Mountains and
then the Ruhens out to the coast. This will be
hugely appreciated in the Hawks Bay as well. It's going
to wake up the whole sheet and beef trading, lambs, etc.
Speaker 3 (13:36):
Well, sheep and beef and we're going to discuss this
with Jen Corkran from Rabobanks. I'll keep my powder dry away,
but a sheep and beef, beef and lamb going great
guns and it's all a supply and demand equation. The
dairies calling its jets.
Speaker 7 (13:50):
Yes, that's exactly what's happened minus four point three percent
last night with the dairy trade auction sheet and beef
riding high with shortage of beef around the world. And
funnily enough, Jamie, people love their red meat and they're
flocking back to red meat, and.
Speaker 6 (14:07):
That's good for us.
Speaker 7 (14:08):
But you have to keep in mind that we've had
a couple of really tough years. Most shedd and beef
farmers lost money two years ago and we've got.
Speaker 6 (14:18):
Makeup to do.
Speaker 7 (14:19):
The general population won't understand that, and they don't really
understand either that dairy has been the biggest factor in
increasing this prosperity of New Zealand over the last twenty years.
You don't see that in the media, but exports raising
from five billion to twenty six billion. That has enabled
(14:41):
us to buy cars and oil and coffee and so on.
We ride on the wave of dairy conversions.
Speaker 3 (14:49):
Interesting. I mean, the smartest politician in my lifetime was
John Key, and you know he famously said, rightly or wrongly,
where Fonterra goes, New Zealand goes. And there's a fair
but to that argument. You want to pick up on
an article in Farmers Weekly by one of my favorite
farming academics, professor Keith Woodford, on the average rate of
(15:09):
return for sheep and beef over the last five years. Now,
these numbers might be out of date now with these
record returns, but you're still not making a fortune.
Speaker 7 (15:18):
Yeah, a return on capital of zero point seven percent
health aesthetic, Yeah, and the five years before that I
think was one point nine percent. So what's causing this?
Price of land underpins everything. It's hard to beat a subsidy.
So this subsidy on carbon has meant that the price
(15:41):
of hill country in particular is escalated, and therefore the
return on capital from farming just does not match. So
that phase may be over, but we now have a
smaller supply of farmland. And the other factor, Jamie is
it's so easy to borrow money now. Prior to nineteen seventy,
(16:04):
I'm going back a long way, but it was really
hard to borrow money. So the price of houses, the
price of land was kept low. And then we had
a decade of high inflation in the seventies and the
bank thought, well, we have protection against we have a
butfe against someone going out of business because the price
of land just keeps going up. So they've just climbed
(16:26):
on that and they've leveraged the money supply hugely. And
here we are with houses which were eighty six hundred
average in nineteen seventy, eighty six hundred, more than one
hundred times high. So I've suggested to an economist or two,
maybe we should have an inflation rate of minus one
(16:49):
to minus three percent.
Speaker 3 (16:51):
Well, hang on, Derek, that's called stagflation. That's worse than inflation.
Speaker 7 (16:55):
Well, I don't know, is it really? I mean, at
some point, Jamie, you've got to have a reality check.
We've got a government borrowing seventy five million dollars a
day to prop up an unrealistic economy. When are we
going to face the music?
Speaker 3 (17:09):
Can I just go back to the carbon farming thing,
because I know you're hot under the collar about this,
and you are a farmer, forester. You grow lots of
pine trees. But right tree, right place? Do you think
the battle has been won against carbon farming. I think
in twenty years time, we're going to look back on
this as the worst ecological mistake we've made in the
history of this country.
Speaker 4 (17:29):
I hope I'm wrong.
Speaker 6 (17:31):
I totally agree.
Speaker 7 (17:32):
Look, it's been a tax forced on us by European
nations in particular, and it's under the false pretenses said
cabin dioxide is evil and methane is evil. And get this,
our negotiators in Paris rolled over and said grass does
(17:53):
not sequest a carbon dioxide.
Speaker 6 (17:55):
What a lie?
Speaker 3 (17:56):
So do you agree with my theory on this one?
And I'm sure you're well, sorry to interrupt here, but
most sheep and beef farms, especially the extensive ones, the
ones like you're operating, are totally carbon positive already. They
should be getting a check from the government, not an invoice.
Speaker 7 (18:12):
Yeah, wouldn't that be nice? And yeah, instead we've given
up revenue earning land. I think you were right in
saying before we started this broadcast that the world's going
to be a wash with trees and logs in twenty
thirty years time, and they'll be worthless and we will
have wasted a lot of land, a lot of employment,
(18:35):
and yeah, and will be poorer for it.
Speaker 6 (18:38):
Go broke. That's what's going on.
Speaker 3 (18:40):
No argument for me on that one. Are why rarely start?
Of course, one of our leading sheep breeders, you are
what are you breeding these days? You're still breeding the
noodies the sheep without any warlord? Is we all coming
back into vogue HEREK?
Speaker 7 (18:52):
Yeah, No, we sure are, But of course wooll prices
come up a bit, which is I think slowing down
the transition farmers who have decided that Wolve's a worthless
and they want to totally get out of sheep with wool.
But our two to thram selling this season, Yeah, we're
up a bit in numbers and Romney's are still popular
(19:15):
and it will be in the new year, Jomie, that
will test the market for our neody Ramlambs and our
Brazilians and so on.
Speaker 3 (19:24):
So that's a politically incorrect name for a sheep.
Speaker 6 (19:27):
Derek, Well, I don't know. I made it up.
Speaker 7 (19:30):
I don't know.
Speaker 6 (19:31):
I haven't been taken to court with it.
Speaker 3 (19:33):
Just you go broke, someone will have a crack at you.
Let me just finish with Daniel's theory of relativity and
I think this is a quote again from the seventies.
We're both guilty of going back there, Derek. But it's
just putting the price of wool into some historical context.
Speaker 7 (19:49):
But yeah, sure, you're a friend of mine. Phil Gascott
had his first year farming in nineteen seventy three. He
averaged two dollars fifty greasy for his wool. I mean
that's across everything, bellies, et cetera. The cost to share
a sheep was a twenty two cent twenty two cents,
and at that in that year, the New Zealand dollar
was buying a dollar forty nine American and that started
(20:12):
falling away. By nineteen eighty four it was forty four cents.
But I traveled overseas in the middle of nineteen seventy
five I exchanged all my hard earned dollars for American dollars.
I've got a dollar twenty nine American for every New
Zealand dollar. So we were riding high at that time,
and then we sunk to a huge low in the
(20:33):
nineteen eighties.
Speaker 6 (20:34):
It's been a long way back.
Speaker 3 (20:36):
Yeah, well, go to the UK now. It's not for
the fainthearted buying a pint over there.
Speaker 4 (20:40):
Derek. We could chat all.
Speaker 3 (20:41):
Day about your playboy days in the seventies, but I
haven't got time. Always good the chat, though, I joways,
enjoy your contribution here on the Country.
Speaker 6 (20:48):
Yeah, me too, Thanks Jamie.
Speaker 4 (20:50):
But thank you, Derek.
Speaker 3 (20:52):
It's twenty nine away from one yal with the Country
up next, Michelle, what's going to be in here? And
we're going to introduce our countdown so Christmas before the
end of the hour.
Speaker 4 (21:00):
Jen Corkran and Jane Smith.
Speaker 3 (21:09):
Welcome back to the country. The show's brought to you
by Brandt. I'm Jamie McKay, Shorty Michelle Watt. Were the
latest and rural news. But first farmers and growers looking
to score a win by getting ahead of the game
this summer. Well, Farmland's has got your back. Being prepared
for a dry summer spell, that's the one. Now's the
time to invest in your water infrastructure, you know, ensure tanks,
(21:29):
troughs and fittings and pipes are in good nick, preventing
nasties like pests, weeds and disease from eating away sum agains.
That's a win too, scoring a healthier return because your
animals were healthy. Healthier should I say another one? All
possible with the right animal management tools and products. Looking
slick for the social season, Well, that's just looking like
(21:50):
a winner, isn't it. Scrub up with new summer gear
from Farmlands that will take you from the paddock to
the pub. The team at your local farmland store or
your farmland technical field specialist, they're thinking, like you, what
do I need to get sorted to score a win
this summer? So that's suit of chat too, to get
some runs on the board head and store or order
(22:11):
through Farmland's pro or talk to your rap about Farmland's
summer office. It is twenty six away from one. Here's
the latest and rural.
Speaker 1 (22:22):
News, the country's world news with Cold Cadet, New Zealand's
leading right on lawn Bower Brand, visit steel for dot
cote onanz for your local.
Speaker 3 (22:31):
Stockist and Michelle Watt, you've got the three New Zealand
finalists for the Zander McDonald Award.
Speaker 8 (22:36):
That's right, they're announced this morning. Of course, the six
finalist all ups, so the three from New Zealand, three
from Australia, one from each will be selected in the
annual Impact someone announced there in March. The three from
New Zealand are Chloe Butcher Harries who is from the
Hawks Bay Cowan, Dally Wall who is from Wyketor and
Lana Marshall who is from Invercargo.
Speaker 3 (22:55):
Well, congratulations to those three New Zealand finalists today. Also,
now do you see what do you like what I'm
doing here? Does that sound exotic to you? Michelle?
Speaker 8 (23:06):
Maybe if you're from rob.
Speaker 3 (23:09):
Pot calling the kettle black Masquinada from Brazil six Sergio
Mendez and Brazil sixty six Just for Derek Daniel and
is politically incorrect breed of sheep called the Brazilians will
go no further right. I was a bit politically incorrect myself, Michelle,
I said, we've got a ship prize for you today,
but we kind of have because it's in that business.
(23:30):
It's from my good mates at fac pack, Greg Myrams.
I've known him for gee for twenty thirty years almost
Chesney my pet Ram attacked him and my Paddick and
gore another story for another day. And Brett Powell, the
chief executive, is in our golfing group. But anyhow so
they're kicking off the countdown to Christmas. A game changer
of a prize when it comes to parasite management thanks
(23:52):
to fac Pack. So from the team behind the farm
FECh testing platform, fac pack is a brand new DIY
fecal egg count production test. It's called Drench Smart DIY.
It's value to twelve hundred dollars. I realize all of
you out there aren't in the market for a worm
testing kit, but believe me, if you are, this is
(24:13):
the one you want. It's a complete kit with everything
you need to take samples and send them off to
the lab. Then you can see if your drench is working.
You see, that's the key to it all, helping you
protect your stock, you wallet in your future. If you
would like to win the Fecpac pack worth twelve hundred dollars,
text win and your name to five double O nine
(24:33):
only if you need it. Of course, we'll announce the
winner of the pack Drench Smart DIY Prize on tomorrow's show.
Speaker 4 (24:40):
Here's Sport.
Speaker 1 (24:42):
Sports on the country with a FCO business.
Speaker 3 (24:46):
Well done, okay, just updating the cricket. We're all out
for two hundred and thirty one Indies West Indies and
reply forty seven for two. Let's go to Newsboss and
see what else is on the sports news. Oh you
can listen into the acc Alternative comedy commentary collective on
iHeart if you want a fun commentary for the cricket.
(25:08):
Tennis great Serena or Williams appears to be one step
closer to a comeback at forty four years young, really,
and Tiger Woods is also pondering, I don't know why
they do this. They're great, they just need to leave
it lie. Tiger's talking about a return to golf as well.
He's had a disc replacement surgery in October, but has
only just been cleared to chip and put. He'd still
(25:30):
beat most people even without a back and relief for
Liam Lawson after official confirmation his Formula one career is
safe for next year, retaining his seat at Racing balls up. Next,
it is Jen Corchran from Rabobank.
Speaker 4 (25:53):
No one at.
Speaker 3 (25:53):
Rabobank and I love Rabobank. Dearely has a short title.
Let's introduce Jen Corkran. Let me find her title Rabo
Research Senior Animal protein Analyst. Hello, Jen, Welcome to the country.
How do you remember your own title?
Speaker 9 (26:08):
Good afternoon, Jamie. No, I definitely struggle to remember my
own job title at times, so it is a bit
of a mouthful, but basically looking at red meat most
of the time for my.
Speaker 3 (26:20):
Job, it's interesting the dynamics out there at the moment.
And we've talked about the GDT auction overnight and there
is under a bit of pressure at the moment. It's
all a supply and demand story. The price goes up,
they turn the tap on around the world and then
the price goes down. Now when it comes to red
meat at the moment, there's a different dynamic, whether it's
beef or lamb, because there's just not enough of it
(26:43):
around in the world at the moment, and that's why
our sheep and beef farmers are enjoying record prices.
Speaker 9 (26:49):
That's right, Jamie. So what we're seeing is really the
outcome of the lack of supply globally of red meat
and in particular beef. Of course, the niche sheep meat
that we're so good at exporting along with the Australians
as in demand too, and there's not as much of
that about. So we're seeing high prices across both sheep
(27:10):
meat and beef at the moment. End it's yeah, they're
at record highs.
Speaker 3 (27:13):
Well, we'll come back to the lamb because I understand
the farmers are getting eleven dollars a kilo, which is
fantastic money. But the beef, it's all about trump and
as hamburgers, let's face it, they can't get enough of
our lean grinding meat for their hamburgers.
Speaker 9 (27:28):
That's right. And this has been a story well told
this year, hasn't it in something that has been expecting
to continue and we expect to continue into the next
couple of years. So we've just released to report the
global beef quarterly, which looks kind of at the key
production regions for beef around the world in terms of
those exporting nations, and production is expected to decline again
(27:49):
next year. And we also are looking at just a
little bit less than one percent in a decline from
twenty twenty four levels this year in terms of that
total supply. Now, if we think demand is steady to
increasing globally, and it is at the moment, you know,
there's just not enough to go around. And in particular
that US market, which is sotant important for New Zealand,
is really demanding that lean trim to put in the hamburgers.
(28:12):
And we haven't seen any downside in that demand yet.
Speaker 4 (28:14):
Yes.
Speaker 3 (28:14):
And also I think late last week and we referred
to this one in Rural News, the fact that beef mince,
the old hardy staple, is no longer a cheap protein option.
I mean, it's more expensive than a lamb shop.
Speaker 4 (28:29):
I can't believe it.
Speaker 9 (28:30):
I know, it's crazy, isn't it, Jamie En. So for
the last about eighteen months, mince retail prices based on
the averages by stepsin z it has been slightly higher
than a kilo of lambtrops, which is wild because we think,
you know, that beef is the more affordable sort of
commodity beef option for us at the supermarket here in
New Zealand. But it's because that exact product is what
(28:53):
these markets in the US are really really wanting right now.
So we've seen an eighteen percent increase in that retail
price from October here to October this year, which is
quite a lot, so you know, well over twenty dollars
or twenty three dollars a kilo I think it is
on average for mints at the moment, So it's not
cheap for a keel of months to make your teddy
see your burgers.
Speaker 6 (29:11):
This the summer.
Speaker 3 (29:13):
Yeah, I know what I would pick if I had
a choice out of beef, mints and a lamb chop.
But anyhow, Look, it's just the supply and demand equation,
isn't it. And then of course when things get too expensive,
either other people jump in and supply them. That's not
that easy for red meat in the short term, or
the consumer substitutes to alternatives, and the alternatives in the
(29:36):
protein space, I guess there chicken and.
Speaker 9 (29:38):
Pork, Yeah, that's right, Jamie and what we tend to
see globally in these sort of situations is that while
you know, as these prices increase, and for beef, if
we're talking about the moment, as the price continue to
go up and up and up, at some point the
consumer is going to push back and say, okay, enough
is enough. I don't want to pay that price. And
what you start to see is people will start to
(29:59):
trade into some of those cheaper proteins such as poultry
and pork, although by less you know, volume of mints
and other things. But the other big one is that
some of those quick service restaurants globally, so if you
think of U cafc's and your McDonald's, the QSRs, they
are actually sort of offering more from that poultry space
(30:20):
as well. So grain prices are cheap globally, it's pretty cheap,
the afford to produce poultry quite quickly versus beef which
is really expensive. So they are feeling it as well
and actually having a bigger offering of some of these
other proteins, which will be one to watch I think
in twenty twenty six, and we might even see it
here in New Zealand. You know, as McDonald's talks about
how much more expensive it is. I think each petty
(30:41):
is about ten cents more at the moment for them,
So considering how many they are serving up, that add up,
so we might see more chicken on the menu. So
it'll be you know, evid beef consumers will need to
go hunting and still may perhaps pay a little bit
more for a next you two.
Speaker 3 (30:56):
Let's just finish on lamb. How sustainable are these prices
at present? Normally the normal cycle for lambs once the
main waning happens, which is happening around the country at
the moment, and the flood of stock come onto the market.
But there isn't really a flood of stock that the
lamb schedule goes down. Can it hold at eleven dollars
or even ten dollars?
Speaker 9 (31:16):
Yeah, So it's interesting, isn't it that price has been
holding steady sort of. The average AIRGH two price has
been holding steadied around that eleven dollar mark across the
North and South Islands over the last three four weeks,
and you know, we're expecting it to start to go
down any minute, but it seems, you know, processes are
still offering these prices Jamie. So we'll just have to
keep an eye on this. You know, we know that
(31:37):
the global demand is good, that average ex book price
that rich Waters are receiving for lamb is very strong
at the moment, and you know, therefore there's a good margin.
So we'll see what, you know, what that suppli does
as lambs start to come in, and whether that means
we see some softening. But you know, we normally might
see between dollar and a dollar fifty coming out of
the schedule, you know, through that peak supply, and at
(31:58):
the moment it hasn't started going down, and perhaps it's
a sign that it might not see the same softness
that we normally see. Given you know, perhaps leam surprise
about as similar as it was last.
Speaker 3 (32:08):
Year this year, Gee, your schedule bottoming out at ten bucks. Gee,
I think sheep farmers would take that. Grab that with
both hands. Jen Corkran Rabo Research Senior Animal protein Analyst.
Thanks for your time and I'll leave you in peace
to go and practice your title.
Speaker 9 (32:23):
Thanks Jamie.
Speaker 3 (32:26):
Thanks. Janet is thirteen away from run one. Remember text
one in your name to five double oh nine if
you want to win the Fechpak Prize. As the countdown
to Christmas kicks off today On the Country, got some
great prizes over the next couple of weeks. Up next
Jane Smith, who's in Parliament today.
Speaker 10 (32:44):
As who's the s mersh down.
Speaker 3 (32:53):
She's a north Otago farmer, former winner of the Balance
Farm Environment Awards, regular Hair on the Country, but she's
on the farm today. She's left the poor old Hobby
Blair to do the hard yards in north Otago because
she's in Wellington, the corridors of power, standing in the
Parliament lobby with the ground Swell team, Bryce Mackenzie, Lorrie Patterson,
(33:15):
Jamie McFadden and you, Jane Smith. What are you there
for to lower the average age of the delegation?
Speaker 5 (33:22):
Are you good as Jamie?
Speaker 10 (33:24):
Just to bring a bit of class to the scrutiny
in Parliament this week. So I don't know whether I'm
the heating dog or the hunt away. I'm probably more
the heating dog, just rounding them up, Jamie. So I
feel like a sort of a bunch of mixed age
Romney rams met loose in the streets of Wellington. So yeah,
I try to join them on their annual advocacy trip
to the Beehive and I've obviously got a list, a
(33:46):
list of things that I want to achieve today, and
we've had some really good meetings already. And yeah, and
to speak collectively, I guess on a number of fishes, Jamie.
Speaker 3 (33:55):
So Jane, I guess being called a romney rams better
than a wormy weather like you're called, mate, Damien O'Connor.
So the ground swell posts for those who haven't seen it,
fresh off the paddock and first through the drafting gate,
and Laurie looks like he's straight off the paddock. But
those blokes are true grassroots farmers. Are you getting any
cut through at Parliament? I know you had a meeting,
(34:16):
for instance, early this morning with the Prince of the
Province's Martua Shane Jones.
Speaker 10 (34:21):
Yeah, and that was really productive Jamie, and I guess
he was. He was saying, you know, we need to
continue as advocates, including the groundsile guys and myself, to
be a clear voice for the productive center. And you know,
Shane was very clear to point out we need confidence
with his certainty and any practical results deliver out there
for all businesses, not just farmers as well. So and
(34:45):
you know, again our productivity is one of the lowest
in the oe c D, so we need to be
really driving that force, Jamie, and I guess we're fortunate
and all four of us do a lot of OIA
so apecial information request during the year, and we've got
a lot of I guess that we need to be
putting forwards, you know, around the amount of TAXPAN money
that's going into things like the whole methane mitigations of BARKLL.
(35:07):
I think shame was a bit taken aback about how
much money is going in TEXTPAN money is going into that.
We're the gmover is going the RMA and local body reform.
No that's vaccinated given the given the announcement last week.
So looking forward to catching up with Chris Bishop and
Simon Watt's about that later on this afternoon. And I
guess the big questions around that in terms of used
(35:28):
to have taken a ministerial sledgehammer to councils, but what
does good lucks look like going forward? And we all
know how inflationary our rates have been over the past
few years. And it's interesting, Jamie, I was just thinking
this morning. You often talk about capital games text we
already have one of those it's called being a ratepayer
and essentially what are we getting to those services? And
(35:49):
you know these used to be catchment boards and basic
district councils and they've just become as obviously before Jamie,
the rider has become heavier than the horse, and you know,
the bureaucrat burden is just collapsing around them. So they
are to throw, you know, through the throw the baby
out with the bathwater. So we've got to be really
careful about what what what is the bathwater and what
(36:10):
is the baby in regards to that, Jamie, and protecting
property rights.
Speaker 3 (36:13):
At the same time, just before I let you go,
how are things in North Otago? Are you getting dry?
How's your season going?
Speaker 6 (36:19):
Yeah?
Speaker 10 (36:19):
Well, we certainly were, Jamie. And since you think I
was throwing the many A toto in the weekend thro
a cricket tournament and gosh, they were, you know, only
the outer side of the teconomy arranged commerce and they
looked fantastic through there.
Speaker 5 (36:30):
We were getting driver.
Speaker 10 (36:31):
Fortunately, I don't feel too guilty be away from home
today because we've had sort of fifteen to twenty mils
over the last day or so.
Speaker 5 (36:38):
So Steedy as she goes.
Speaker 10 (36:40):
Good things take time, and I think this will be
a real game changer and really pop up the lamb
and the beef market as well.
Speaker 3 (36:46):
Jamie, Good things take time. Laurie and Bryce. Look that
looked like in the picture they could front a Mainland
cheese ad.
Speaker 9 (36:53):
Well, they certainly could, Jamie.
Speaker 10 (36:54):
And look, I don't want to put a catamongst of
pigeons and be speaking out of turn here, but but
I was concerned when I to their hotels this morning
to take them up, and there's actually only one one
hotel room used for Laurie and Bryce. Jamie was in
his own one, and it's yeah, I don't want to
sugguce that they've been sharing a bit, but Laurie assures
me it's a sheep and sheep farmer austerity measure sharing
(37:17):
a room. So but you know, we're in Wellington next
celebrate diversity.
Speaker 3 (37:24):
That's our roomors start. Anyhow, Thank you very much for
your time from Wellington. Good luck in the corridors of
power this afternoon.
Speaker 4 (37:31):
Thanks Jennie, Thank you, Jane.
Speaker 3 (37:34):
Yes, I'm sure it's all above board with Laurie and Bryce.
I think where about those two? I can tell you
that right now anyhow, I just getting in trouble. I
can see that. I'm going to take a break, regather
and we're going to come back with some of your feedback. Okay,
Wrapping the Country the Windy's let me have a lock
(37:56):
sixty seven for two New Zealand all out this morning
for two hundred and thirty one. We'll catch you back
tomorrow with Miles Hurrell and the Prince of the Provinces.
Speaker 1 (38:08):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's The Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to Frent You're specialist in
John Deere construction equipment
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