August 5, 2025 • 38 mins
Jamie Mackay talks to Todd McClay, Matt Bolger, Andrew Hoggard, Grant McCallum, Emma Higgins, and Hunter McGregor.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Catch you all the latest from the land. It's The
Country Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to Brent. You're specialist
in John Deere construction equipment.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
When you devel is no ordinary Venue's the Philippines. Good
a New Zealand, Welcome to the Country. One night in Bangkok.
(00:35):
I think it's one morning in Bangkok. He's over there somewhere,
the Minister of Agriculture and Trade, Todd McLay. We go
straight to him and then we'll tell you what's on
the rest of the show later because he's a busy man.
He's seven o'clock in the morning over there. He's got
to go and do his JYM session. Todd McLay. As
I said, Minister of Agriculture and Trade, what are you
doing in Thailand? Are you in Bangkok?
Speaker 3 (00:57):
Yeah, Jamie, good afternoon. I am that's a great song.
I remember that, and I was told just yesterday there
was about a big gest tournament actually not what I
thought was going on in Tangkok. Hey, yes, I am here.
I've come out just to meet with the government. We
have a free trade agreement with twenty years old. At
the beginning of this year it ended fully into four
so no restriction, and a few of our dairy exporters
(01:18):
are saying they're finding it a bit harder getting product
into the market than they should under that agreement. So
I thought it'd come up and talk directly to them,
and we're making some progress here. They're very keen on
New Zealand product. They're just having a bit of challenges
with the system, so we'll keep talking to them. I
think we can probably work it out. It's just another
one of these cases where we enter in agreements. Everyone
(01:39):
has obligations. You're just going to make sure it works
for New Zealand exporters. And guess what, it always seems
to be dry at the moment.
Speaker 4 (01:46):
Have I got a case of Trump is them?
Speaker 3 (01:48):
No, it's just a change in the system. This is
the only trade agreement where it becomes fully liberalized, and
so there shouldn't be any restriction at all. In anything,
the trade works really well well. Two countries has grown.
We buy a lot more from them than we sell
them or to its pretty well and a lot of
what we put in this market is process further and
(02:09):
then exported everywhere. So it's just one of these cases
of working through it. I decided it has been going
on for a bit long, and I wanted to raise
it to ministerial level, and they've given me a commitment
to sort it out over the next handful of months.
So we'll work with them on that.
Speaker 2 (02:20):
Okay, Thailand one point six billion dollars worth to our economy.
I've tried or of exports. We see them there, Indonesia
one point nine seven. These are real growth areas, aren't they.
Speaker 3 (02:31):
So Southeast Asia is a priority that Chris Lackson has
set for the country. Actually, you know, New Zealand's a
little place, a long way from everywhere, but Southeast Asia
is as fastest growing region anywhere. And their process is
their factories want high quality, safe food products are put through.
They had a lot of value creating jobs in New
(02:53):
Zealand and over here and then they export it. But
their consumers are very keen on what we produce. I
went to supermarket yesterday and they had fruit and vEDS
from all over the world, and gee, some of the
New Zealand apples and you know other things key we
ridden here is selling for a wonderful price. So we're
just going to keep producing and keep making sure the
(03:14):
door's open to exporting and every time we're sending something
overseas produced by a New Zealand farmer, it creates jobs
in New Zealand.
Speaker 4 (03:22):
So are you flying directly from Bangkok to Washington?
Speaker 5 (03:26):
No?
Speaker 3 (03:26):
From here onto Indonesia, a growing market and you'll know
there we had a bit of problems getting onions and
earlier and with each agreements on it, just come out
and make sure that everything's working there. We're working on
the date to get up to Washington, and just got
up this morning early and seen correspondence, so it's not
too far away. I'm going up there to make the
(03:46):
case that actually the additional five percent tariff is unwarranted
and unnecessary and try and get a better understanding of
where they're heading from here. We've just got to start
getting certainty because for every export into that market, particularly meet,
it's getting challenging, not only the caraphry but the suggestion
that things change all the time. So you will have
(04:07):
heard over the weekend after the announcement on Friday, I
had a call very quickly with the equivalent of the
US Trade Minister, their trade the ambassador of Greer He
and I spoke less than twenty four hours after President
Trump's announcement. He invited me up there to sort of
work through this and have a better understanding. And so
over the next two weeks, I'll be on a plane
to Washington.
Speaker 2 (04:27):
If we had run a trade deficit with the US
like Australia does, would we have got ten percent?
Speaker 4 (04:34):
Is it as simple as that.
Speaker 3 (04:35):
It is as simple as that, That's right, he said
to me. Look, he was very open in frank I've
met him three times around the world. We've had calls
and conversations and you know, a few messages and so on.
He said, didn't matter if you had camped out here
in Washington, if you'd had a trade deal or you negotiating.
Any country that had a trade surplus against the US
(04:56):
last year is fifteen percent or more. So that's Correa
who have a deal, Japan who are working on one.
They're at fifteen percent. Switzerland is thirty nine percent, a
very big deficit. On the other case, you've got Australia
that brought more from Australia than from the US than
they sold them The UK the same, they're at ten percent.
(05:17):
So he said, you know, that was the decision, and
like it or not, that's what it would have been.
Speaker 2 (05:22):
We're very close to being trade neutral with the US,
though maybe we just need to maybe we just need
to buy some more of this stuff and get into
a tried deficit and then without the ten percent.
Speaker 3 (05:32):
Well, one of the things I want to understand is
the mechanism they're thinking about what happens, because he said
it's based on last year. So as an example of
this year, we go to deficit, we buy more from them,
will it change and how? And our exporters need to
know that it's clear to as I talked to many
of them that the ten percent that was about some
time ago they've been able to pass on, not all
(05:53):
of them, but many of them. Now is the extra
five percent that's challenging. You'll have to look whether they
can absorb that or some cases they're diverting product to
other markets because they're getting better prices. We're going to
give it this way. And look, I feel for the
beef exporters because you know, don't mean particularly hard that
the US does not have enough beef. They must import it.
(06:14):
We know they like New Zealand beef going to the
Hamburgers and so on, and so we're going to get
a bit more certainty, but on ten dollars worth of
beef it costs fifty cents more compared to Australia and Jamie,
I don't know whether the Australian beef will be ten
bucks and our ten fifty or both eleven. We know
they want the product at they're the biggest harm being
done to exporters all around the world at the moment,
(06:35):
apart from the escurbing costs of the tariff, is actually
the uncertainty.
Speaker 2 (06:40):
Indeed, Todd McLay early morning in Bangkok, thank you for
some of your time. You've got time to go and
do that gym session before you get on with your
day's work. Thank you very much for your time, and
you keep up the good work on behalf of us.
I'm not sure where they're going to Washington could be
a waste of your time, but there is a thought,
of course that you don't want to poke.
Speaker 4 (06:57):
The beer's right.
Speaker 3 (06:59):
But look, we've got a constructive relationship on trade. There
are challenges at the moment. We're going to get up
there and keep talking. You know, it's as simple as this.
If we sit at home, then we get forgotten. In
this case with the US, it is challenging, but it's
important to get up there and make New Zealand's case well.
Speaker 2 (07:16):
You could never be accused of sitting at home. Thank
you for your time.
Speaker 3 (07:19):
Thank you, Todd.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
McClay, Minister of Agriculture and Trade. Excuse me in Bangkok, Thailand,
Indonesia and at some stage very shortly off to the
off to Washington to plead our case. Up next Matt Bolger,
son of son of Jim Bolger. Not that that matters, well,
it actually does, because I think I owe an apology
(07:43):
Matt Bulger from Fonterra's MD of co op Affairs.
Speaker 4 (07:46):
Another I think it was a really good.
Speaker 2 (07:49):
GDT auction as some of our volume starts to come
onto the market before the end of the our our
dairy Farmer politician panel Andreward Grant McCullum, Emma Higgins out
of Rabobank, the prospect of the ten dollar Holy Grail
trifector for farming and Hunter McGregor. Our guy in Shanghai
(08:12):
is in Beijing. We'll see what he's up to. It's
all on the country and it's brought to you by Brandt.
Speaker 1 (08:26):
What the city is the krem Dela crame. I'm the
Jess World in a show with Averything England Fuel Renner.
Speaker 2 (08:32):
Let's have a look at last night's global dairy Trade
auction and it was a good one. Up zero point
seven percent. Key number Hoole milk powder up two point
one percent. To tell us more about it, Matt Bolger,
Managing director of co Op Affairs at Fonterra, and Matt,
before we get on to the milk price and the
GDT auction, I owe you an apology or your family
(08:53):
and apology. I think your father is, of course, Jim Bolger,
former Prime Minister, and I think last time we chatted
I may have called him Sir James Boulger, but being
a good Irishman, he didn't want a knighthood from the English.
Speaker 6 (09:05):
No, you might be right, but if you're going to
cause somebody offense, I think you're pretty taste on that count.
And that's not the worst thing you could have said
about him. So we're still friends.
Speaker 2 (09:14):
Well, thank you for that, Matt, and good on them
for sticking to his principles. This a GDT auction was
pretty much exactly as the futures market predicted it.
Speaker 7 (09:24):
Yeah.
Speaker 6 (09:25):
Look I got up this morning and saw the numbers
and it was really positive auction. Good thing to note
in this we obviously had a small price increase across
the board and in a healthy one and homework powder, but
at this time of year, we're increasing volume, so we
probably had a fifty percent increase in the volume sold
on this auction, and as farms are starting to milk
(09:48):
and we're selling into more of the peak period. So
to have that increase in volume and then healthy prices,
we're pleased with that outcome.
Speaker 2 (09:56):
Okay, whole milk powder two point one percent, very positive,
skim milk powder zero point four percent. Butter down three
point eight percent, and that I'm assuming that's because of
the door stopping that Miles Hurrell had to take from
Mikey Sherman. He decided to lower the price of butter.
Speaker 4 (10:12):
Is that right, mate?
Speaker 6 (10:14):
No, No, we'll refer back to global markets on that one,
I think, Jamie. So no, Look, butter came down a
little bit, so that might be a little bit of
relief here because obviously the prices that we all pay,
hume families pay at the supermarket check out of New Zealand,
they're all sort of linked back to those global butter prices.
So those that come down a little bit, which you
(10:34):
know may help a little bit on the relief side.
But of course in terms of New Zealand's economy, high
prices and the area are a great thing. So but
across the boarder there's say positive signs and particularly when
you look at it in the context to extra volume
on this week.
Speaker 2 (10:50):
Yeah, and a key we dollar that's sub sixty US sense,
it's all boding well for this season twenty five twenty six.
I think this auction was the first one hit by
a fifteen percent tariff.
Speaker 4 (11:03):
What difference did that make?
Speaker 6 (11:06):
Look, there's not a lot of buyers on GDT out
of the United States. That's not the way that they
it's not necessarily the products they buy, and that's not
their method of buying. So the direct impact isn't there.
There's still a fair bit of uncertainty out there around
the implication of the US tariffs, So you know, we're
(11:27):
watching that unfold and of course talking with our US
customers daily and then over time of course that may
expand out a little bit across into some of the
other markets. But you know, that's that's evolving pretty much
on it.
Speaker 2 (11:38):
Well, it's fair to say Matt Bolger that dereries probably
faring better than red meat and wine for instance, probably
two of the segments or sectors that are going to
be hardest hit by these tariffs.
Speaker 6 (11:50):
Yeah, I think that's I think that's he Jammy, there
are you know, there are some markets that export there
into the United States now that would have an advantage
over us from a tariff point of view. I'm Canada
being an obvious one, so you know, it's not something
that we're unconcerned about. But look, Richard Allen and his team,
they do a fantastic job of looking at, you know,
(12:11):
where we can sell products, and I guess having access
and relationships in markets all around the world means that
when there are challenges in one area, you know we
do have options.
Speaker 2 (12:20):
Okay, Matt Bolger, thank you very much for your time,
Managing Director of co Op Affairs from Fonterra onwards and
upwards for the twenty five twenty six stairy season.
Speaker 8 (12:29):
That's us.
Speaker 6 (12:29):
Thanks Ammy, Thank you, Matt.
Speaker 2 (12:32):
Twenty two after twelve The Country's brought to you by
Brand News at eleven o'clock if you missed out on
it this morning. Unemployment has reached five point two percent
on the June Court, up from five point one on
the March quarter. Everyone was predicting five point three, so
maybe that's a positive result.
Speaker 4 (12:50):
It's the highest it's.
Speaker 2 (12:51):
Been since September twenty twenty, but lower than the forecast
five point three. Obviously, the unemployment rate has climbed from
just three point two percent in late twenty twenty one.
You remember those times, the COVID times when you could
literally walk out the door and go and get a
job at the place on the other side of the street.
Speaker 4 (13:09):
Those days have gone.
Speaker 2 (13:11):
Economists had been broadly expecting another rise today. They got one,
but opinions are divided on whether the job market is
turning around or unemployment will go even higher. Very tough
out there for young people to get a job at
the moment. Up next, lighting things up a wee bit
with the Dairy Farmer Politician Panel Grant McCullum out of
(13:33):
Northland Andrew Hoggard out of the Manuwatu.
Speaker 4 (13:44):
Next to the see.
Speaker 2 (13:52):
Today's panel is the Dairy Farmer Politician Panel Andrew Hoggard, Manuwatu,
Dairy Farmer Activist MP, Minister of Biosecurity Grant McCullum. The
National MP for Northland. That's about where it ends, isn't it.
Speaker 4 (14:07):
Grant, Yes, thank you.
Speaker 7 (14:10):
I'm very happy to be the next Northwold. You've got
to start somewhere, mate.
Speaker 3 (14:14):
It goes.
Speaker 2 (14:14):
Yes, you've got to start somewhere now, carving. You've got
good day jobs. You two good paying day jobs being politicians.
Do you go back home in the weekends and do
the hard yards carving? Because you're both dairy farmers, like go.
Speaker 5 (14:29):
Beck and Helpless, we're in the calves, so that's my
job on the weekends and it sort of keeps me
sane and I just get to worry about little calves
butting me where I don't want them to butt me
and trying to bot my fingers off.
Speaker 2 (14:40):
Well that's the life of a dairy farmer. Okay, So
Andrew Hoggard he does the hard yards at home and
the weekend. Grant, you've always been a bit of a
Queen street farmer, do you bother?
Speaker 7 (14:51):
Thank you very much. Actually, up until Reefly, I was
a full time farmer.
Speaker 8 (14:55):
But no.
Speaker 7 (14:55):
Actually, now that I'm an electric MP, I spent my
time doing my electric work in the weekends with Andrew.
But you're listening piece obviously got nothing else to do.
The home fee carbs.
Speaker 2 (15:06):
You realize there's an irony. And you know I said
you've got good paying day jobs. The way the GDT
auction and the payouts are going, you two might have
to quit politics and become full time farmers again.
Speaker 4 (15:16):
It'll pay better.
Speaker 7 (15:18):
You don't need words.
Speaker 4 (15:21):
No, I'm sure you don't go in it for the money.
Speaker 2 (15:23):
Right. I'll start with you, Andrew putting on your Minister
of biosecurity hat. What about these wilding pines? Are they
an absolute threat? We're spending money, probably not enough to
get rid of them, but there is a bit of
an irony that we're spending all this money to get
rid of plants that sequest a carbon, and then we're
growing plants i pine trees on good food producing land.
(15:45):
Maybe we should just let the wilding pines go.
Speaker 5 (15:48):
Well, no, they're very definitely the wrong tree in the
wrong place. They spread like nobody's business. And the problem
is they spread. We go at lease there is where
it's out of control all the sea source and that
blows onto farmers lands and then the peoral farmer is
left trying to pull these bloody things out so they
can keep farming the land. So these ones are an
(16:10):
important one to remove. We don't want them. Their poor quality,
they're no good for timber or anything like that. They're
just an absolute pest. So the irony isn't lost on
me though There's been many a time when people have
been talking about we could plant these wild employments sorry
normal points to sequest a carbon on government land. And
then I look at it and go, is this the
(16:32):
same government land that I'm paying to get rid of
pines from?
Speaker 6 (16:35):
Yah?
Speaker 2 (16:35):
Yeah, there is an irony there. And Grant McCallum, I'll
go to you. What's the inside oil on Molesworth.
Speaker 7 (16:42):
Yeah, they're working through all that. I would ultimately it
will be farmed properly and appropriately, and we're i'd like
to think that we're going to keep it as a
functioning station and keep the and we're working with the
ministers to makes to see if we can make sure
we keep wilding pines under control and keep the and
(17:04):
keep any paracy paint to an absolute non noons at all,
because it's an iconic station.
Speaker 4 (17:09):
Absolutely, I agree with you, Andrew. Sorry, awhere you go.
Speaker 5 (17:12):
There are a couple of months ago and cattle is
the best best tool for that station, and I would
be extremely disappointed and sentily speaking against it if anyone
was to be suggesting that we're just planting the whole
bloody lot and pines are the subjects.
Speaker 2 (17:26):
For discussion a GMO food labeling. Who wants to start
on that one, Biosecurity Minister, I.
Speaker 5 (17:31):
Guess well, food safety minister. Actually, yeah, Look, this was
part of the joint work we do with Australia and
it's basically making sure that the labeling rules are consistent
with the legislation Australias has currently and what will be
our legislation, which is very similar to the Australian legislation.
So it's just a symbol case of making sure we
(17:52):
don't have labeling rules that are completely at odds with
our actual legislation. Doesn't stop anyone from wanting to label
that no gene editing was used, and you'll there will
still be labeling for genetic modification. But again it's just
about making the consumer have The consumer's got the choice
as to whether they want to look for labels. If
(18:14):
they're not interested, then they don't have to worry about
the cost of all these extra labeling being put on
products now.
Speaker 4 (18:21):
Grant McCallum, we're getting rid of petrol tax.
Speaker 8 (18:24):
Yeah, well, actually yes we are that.
Speaker 7 (18:25):
It was announced day by the Minister Chrispisshipments the Transport.
We're going to over time get rid of the petrol
tax and move to road user charge system so you
pay by distance and weight of vehicle, which will make
it which will be fairer for everybody, because what's happening
currently is actually we've got because of the more fel
efficient vehicles on the road and the electric vehicles, we're
(18:47):
getting less. We've been we've been getting less and less
petrol tax, which and yet we all want to drive
on good roads, so those two equations don't match up.
So over time we're going to work towards a system
which will be fairer for everybod.
Speaker 4 (19:00):
What's the logistics around doing that?
Speaker 7 (19:03):
Well, the beautiful thing this stage technology will help work
make a big difference there. It won't be a paper
based system, it'll be a left electronic one and that's
the sudden we'll work through and we will allow the
private sector to help us to develop those tools.
Speaker 2 (19:16):
Hey, just to finish on guys, Grant, you sent me
a text while I was speaking to David Seymour, Andrew's boss,
a bit earlier in the week, and you were basically gloating,
living vicariously whereever you want to say it about Simon
Parker getting into the All Blacks and your kind of
claim and credit for this, because you said without your
without your coaching him as a nine year old, he
(19:38):
wouldn't have made it.
Speaker 7 (19:41):
Not quite true. I coached against him. It was quite
ironic acshally when he was under the under nines playing
against my son. He was huge even back then, so
the opposition coach played him at half back, so he
got the ball all the time and he ran around
with the ball in one hand. He was a big
boy and his mother, bless her, often carried a burth
of for because all the parents question we do is
(20:01):
under nines because that's when there were no weight restrictions
back then. Of course, often in country rugby, it's just
the way it is. But no, I'm really pleased for
him and for the for his family because he's worked
really hard. He's had a few injury issues over the
years and he maybe he could be that answer at six.
We've been looking for him bruising forward we.
Speaker 2 (20:20):
Need a big raw boned bugger and the number six jersey.
He could be the answer. And final comment from you
Andrew Hogart. The Man or two Turbos had a one
perennial wooden spooners.
Speaker 5 (20:31):
Yeah, that was one of the books. And good on
the turbos. It's not something we usually get to celebrate.
So it's really good to see the Green and White
get over the line and several times and actually to
beat North Harbor. So very start to the season.
Speaker 4 (20:47):
Okay, then final camp one.
Speaker 7 (20:49):
Here we go the author of to Beat South this
weekend in fong Ray and then I'll just make my
weekend perfectly. Actually, Jamie, what do you reckon?
Speaker 2 (20:59):
Well, I would take you on for a wager, but
I've just run out of time, so I'll see you later.
Speaker 4 (21:05):
Thanks for being on the panel.
Speaker 2 (21:06):
Team, see your lads, Thank you very much. Twenty seven
away from twelve. Very shortly, Michelle's going to wander in
here the latest and rural news, which is brought to
you by cub Cadet. Actually got a text from the
bloke who runs the company, John McAvennie. Thanks for listening, John.
(21:26):
Every listener is a prisoner on this show. John says
steell Fort's doing its bit for US relationships. All of
their ride on mowers come out of or are manufactured
in the US. That's the cub cadet and the hustler.
So John, we need more patriots like yourself to buy
some more stuff off the US, and then we can
(21:47):
run a trade deficit like Australia, and then Trump won't
have any excuse. He's got to drop at taro freight
down to ten percent. I reckon he's kind of making
it up as he goes, but there you go. So
up next to Rural New Sports News before the end
of the hour, Emma Higgins on the prospect of a
ten dollar holy grail for farming, and Hunter McGregor, our
(22:09):
Shanghai correspondent, is in Beijing, magnificent city. Welcome back to
the country. The show is brought to you by Brandt.
(22:30):
Very shortly the latest and rural news and sports news
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Speaker 1 (23:38):
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Speaker 2 (23:47):
All right, good afternoon, Michelle. What are you got for
us and aurural news?
Speaker 3 (23:51):
Well?
Speaker 9 (23:52):
First up, did you know today is a very special day?
Speaker 5 (23:55):
Uh?
Speaker 4 (23:55):
What is the date? The sixth of August?
Speaker 9 (23:58):
Tel Pray tell it is farm worker appreciation day to day.
Speaker 4 (24:03):
Well, that's fair enough the one who sits at home
and makes up all these days. There's a day for
every day of the year and more.
Speaker 2 (24:10):
But yes, at this time of the year in particular,
you need to look after the farm workers because a
lot of them, especially in the dairy industry at this time,
and shortly in the sheep industry with lamming.
Speaker 4 (24:19):
Will be doing long hours. Appreciate your farm workers absolutely.
Speaker 9 (24:23):
Let's fall on at the moment some things in the
news we have got. Federated Farmers is urging rural North
Canterbury residents to attend to public meetings. One of those
is tonight and Colvid and so if you want to
find out more about that, maybe called your local Federated
Farmers branch and find out how you can attend that one.
Of course, it's all about the police service cuts that
(24:44):
they're proposed that's been proposed up in that area. Also
in New Zealand's avocado exporters have united under a collective
fer and Mark license, which is a first for the
hort sector. The far and Markers Government's original official mark
of origin signifying authenticity, quality and governm Our New Zealand
avocados are known for their rich taste, nutritional value and
sustainable growing practices. Industry leaders say the license reflects a
(25:07):
sheared vision and builds trust in international markets.
Speaker 2 (25:10):
And I'm glad to see the avocado growers getting a
better go this year. Don't like avocados, They're too mushy
for me. Give me a Kiwi fruit gold any day.
But a taste is subjective, isn't it.
Speaker 9 (25:21):
One day you'll need mushy food.
Speaker 4 (25:23):
Joe, Well, that's not a bad shot. There you go, Michelle,
that's not bad at all. Here's sport.
Speaker 1 (25:29):
Sport with AFCO. Visit them online at AFCO dot co
dot NZ.
Speaker 2 (25:34):
Lewis Clarebird admits there's plenty of work to do if
he's to stand atop of the podium at next year's
Commonwealth Games. The Olympian broke his own two hundred meter
individual medley national record at the World Swimming Champs in Singapore,
but failed to make the final of this favored four
hundred meter i AM and a back complaint means will ow'
(25:57):
rourke has joined Nathan Smith and being ruled out of
the black Caps second Test, starting in Bulawayo tomorrow, night,
and that is your sports news here on the country.
And if you haven't caught up on the big employment
news this morning, the unemployment rate is at five point
two percent, about to go to five point three percent, Michelle,
(26:17):
if you come out with any more ageous comments like that.
Up next to Emma Higgins, she is a senior ag
analyst for Rabobank. One of the shortest titles in the
Rabobank stable. Actually, Emma Higgins. Always good to get her
on the show. We've chatted to Matt Boulger from Fonterra
about the GDT auction. Do you think another positive auction
(26:40):
is ten dollars? I know you're going to I know
you're going to duck for cover on this one, Emma,
but it's ten dollars done and dusted for the twenty
five twenty sixth season.
Speaker 8 (26:49):
Well, you know what I might surprise you here. Look,
I do think ten dollars is looking pretty good right now.
There's a few things, as usual, put my caveats in there.
I think that one is really how the market will
respond over the next several weeks when we're coming into
critical timing for mint production and also the bulk of
(27:09):
our volume that is offered on the GDT platform tends
to step up over the next sort of seven GDTs
as well. So how all of that aligns with potentially
bumper spring milk production will be critical as to how
that ten dollar price point moves at this point in time,
I believe.
Speaker 4 (27:27):
Let's talk about tariffs.
Speaker 2 (27:28):
Now, this is the first GDT auction I think that
was affected or factored factoring in a fifteen percent tariff
to the US. And as I discussed with Matt, obviously
the US isn't a huge dairy market compared to what
it is for the likes of red meat and wine.
But what sort of effect do you think it's having
aon dairy and be more importantly in your wheelhouse on
(27:52):
red meat?
Speaker 8 (27:54):
Yeah, and look at us quite an interesting one, isn't it,
Because we're all sort of finding our feet in terms
of what might happen from here. Look, I think in
terms of dairy New Zealand really stands to benefit and
I'm sure you've probably heard it from some of your
other commentators just around how New Zealand could ultimately look
to supply any gaps that might emerge due to other
(28:14):
more unfavorable tariff amounts. That are being imposed. But ultimately,
the biggest story I think the New Zealand farmers really
comes down to what's happening in the red meat space,
and specifically for beef, because what we've got is a
really interesting dynamic starting to emerge. We've got steady farm
gate pricing for beef, which is excellent at the farm
gate price here in New Zealand. We've got a US
(28:35):
important market which is incredibly strong due to the lack
of supply domestically and the fact that they've got low
inventries and the herd rebuilding is unjust happening. But we
need to layer on top of it the dynamics with
Brazil because what's been happening is that they have front
loaded a heic of a lot of products into the
(28:57):
United States. These around about three hundred thousand tons of
beef that's entered into the US so far. Normally they
are in parallel with our volumes, which are currently sitting
at around one hundred and fifty thousand tons, So the
exports are up over one hundred percent year and year,
and what we think has been happening is that they've
been trying to frontload that product into the US market,
(29:19):
because when we add all the various carrier tariffs and
quota amounts, et cetera all up, it looks like Brazil
are facing around a seventy six percent tariff. So because
of that, we're expecting that those products from Brazil are
likely to start slowing down. But the probably the impacts
(29:40):
for New Zealand farmers is that we're likely to continue
to see steady pricing for beef and less upside as
the US market continues to digest what are really strong
volumes and have shipped across from Brazil. The good news
is that that heard rebuild is happening in the States,
it's only just kicked off. We think the cow cull
is down and we know that their hea forer attentions
(30:02):
are only just starting to left at the moment, So
we think the good news is that the steady market
looks to be in play for the next three to
four years. New Zealand does have a slight disadvantage when
it comes to tariffs, having a fifteen percent number compared
to a ten percent imposed for Australia, so all things
(30:23):
being equal, it does put us on slightly back foot,
but the dynamics are so strong that I think New
Zealand will be okay.
Speaker 2 (30:30):
Emma Higgins, thank you very much for your time today
on the country from Rabobank. Imagine if we got the
trifector ten dollar milk price, ten dollar beef price, ten
dollar lamb price, that would be farming utopia, wouldn't that?
Speaker 8 (30:45):
And look two out of three ain't bad and the
words of meat loaf and we're possibly there on sheep meat.
Speaker 2 (30:50):
So we'll see, well, well to see what happens with beef.
Not not a bad weeplay on words there from you either. Emma,
thanks for your time.
Speaker 8 (30:58):
Thanks Jamie, thank you.
Speaker 4 (31:00):
Emma.
Speaker 2 (31:00):
Yeah, beef gets the ten bucks. We do have the
Holy Grail up next. We're going to wrap the country
with some of your feedback. He's our guy in Shanghai,
Hunter McGregor, Roxburgh born and bred. He's over there and
has been for a long time, selling venison and red
(31:22):
meat to the Chinese. But Hunter, you're not in Shanghai,
the westernized Chinese city. You're in old old world China
as I would describe it. You're in Beijing at the moment.
It's just a wonderful contrast between those two cities.
Speaker 3 (31:37):
Yeah.
Speaker 10 (31:37):
Good afternoon, Jamie, Yeah, no, it's China is such a
big country, and you know, it's so diverse and very different,
and you know, being spending a bit of time in Beijing,
it feels like sort of you know, from a New
Zealand point of view, going to Australia is very familiar,
but there's a lot of small differences that you pick
(31:58):
up on, and you know, I can pick up on
a lot of differences here that everything's very different to Shanghai.
And yeah, here for the week on a bit of
a holiday and enjoying some Beijing heat. So that's really good.
Speaker 4 (32:13):
Mind joul to be stinking hot in Shanghai as well,
is it.
Speaker 10 (32:17):
Oh yeah, it's actually hotter in Shanghai, so that's a
little bit cooler here. But yeah, when you're sort of
thirty thirty thirty five degrees high humidity, it's.
Speaker 3 (32:26):
Not much fun.
Speaker 10 (32:27):
But you know in Beijing that the people are a
lot different because you know, you've got a high hot
summer and you've got a super cold winter. You get
down to minus twenty minus thirty, and I think that
hard winter, you know, makes people a little bit harder
up here, a little bit more, but they roll there
are is like good self and is up here. S
(32:48):
I find that my Chinese really improves because you just
sort of mumble fast and sort of put an R
sound on the end of everything's dound like a local.
Speaker 4 (32:56):
Are you wearing your Beijing bikini? And what is a
Beijing bikini?
Speaker 10 (33:01):
While it's it's something that's really funny, it's because the
Beijing is up here, especially in summer, they like sitting
around and drinking their local Yanjing beer and eating lamb
on skewers, and you don't get to do that down
and especially down in Shanghai. They're a bit more sophisticated.
So they sit up here, especially at nighttime on the street,
(33:23):
and it's fantastic. You sit there, you drink your cold
beer and lamb skewers, and what people do is they
especially if they've got a they've got a good body,
if they've been doing that for a while, and they
get their motor out and they roll up their shirt
and let their belly hang out, and it's sort of
a famous sort of thing. You don't see that that
very often at the moment in Beijing. But yeah, last time, yeah,
(33:46):
ten to fifteen years ago, it was everywhere, So I
haven't seen too many Beijing bikinis, but hopefully we'll see
a few more tonight when I get out on the
streets and eat a bit of lambs, some lamb skiwers
and drink some beer.
Speaker 2 (33:58):
Well, for anyone who hasn't been lucky enough to go
to Beijing, it's a magnificent city. Obviously, there's so much
history and heritage there. I love the Forbidden City and
Tienuman Square right in the middle there. But you've been down?
Speaker 4 (34:11):
Is it down? Is it south of that the Summer Palace?
Speaker 10 (34:17):
Yeah, sort of on the edge of town, the Summer Palace,
there's a man made lake that they more or less
dug dig to make a hill which is sixty meters high,
and you know, it's a fantastic place. It's a little
bit cooler than with the breeze coming off the lake
and things like that, but you know it was made
(34:38):
in seventeen fifty. It took them sixteen years to sort
of dig the lake and make this a big mountain
to put a palace on. So yeah, it's impressive that
you know the history and things around Beijing. It is
definitely a place you really want to visit once in
a lifetime and experience it all because it's very different.
Speaker 2 (34:57):
Just to finish on, we always talk about the state
of the Chinese economy. I note that you're coming back
when it comes to our global dairy trade auctions. We've
had good Chinese interest again overnight. Are you seeing that
pick up in the Chinese economy? And does Beijing move
slower than Shanghai?
Speaker 10 (35:14):
Beijing moves at a different speed. It's still still reasonably fast,
but it's got a very different feel to Shanghai and
the rest of the country because you know that the
government sits here. It's a bit like Wellington and Auckland there,
but they move at different speeds and things like that.
But you know, what I've noticed is that I've been
traveling and living in China for eighteen years now, and
(35:38):
the tourism is picking up, is a lot more than
what it once was. And you know, people are happy
to spend for an experience and do something different, so
they're all getting out. So these tourism sites are absolutely
packed all across the country because people, you know, at
the moment we're in the middle of summer holidays, just
(36:00):
sort of two months for everybody it's a July and August,
so there's a lot of driving, a lot of consumption,
you know, around around the whole country. Tourism's and that's
a positive thing, you know, it's local tourism mostly the
foreigners are starting to come back, but that's driving a
lot of consumption, which I was just surprised at how
(36:20):
many people were at the Summer Palace yesterday.
Speaker 2 (36:22):
God.
Speaker 10 (36:23):
You know, I've been there a few times before and
there's hardly anybody, so, you know, it's just interesting. Things
are always changing up here, Jamie.
Speaker 2 (36:30):
Yeah, and you can't get into the Forbidden City because
there's one point four billion Chinese all wanting to look
at it as well, Hunter McGregor, enjoy your family break
in Beijing.
Speaker 4 (36:40):
We'll catch you back in a couple of weeks at
home in Shanghai.
Speaker 3 (36:44):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (36:44):
Thanks, Jeremy, I thank you, Hunter.
Speaker 2 (36:47):
Right, some are your feedback and if you get the opportunity,
Beijing's magnificent. You can go and look at the Great
Wall of China and go to the Olympic events or
stadium where they had the Olympics in two thousand and
what do they call it the bird's nest for the
athletics and the ice cube for the swimming. Some of
your feedback on the holy Grail, the ten dollar holy Grail,
(37:08):
Sandra Faulkner, ever enthusiastic campaign for wool end Z trustee, says,
what about a ten dollars strong wall price? Jeez, well,
I would love to think that's possible, but I'm not
sure it does. Hopefully I'm wrong on that one. It
needs to be ten dollars. Read the pine trees on Molesworth.
Maybe Jim Ward voting with his feet first activated some
(37:33):
sanity to prevail, to prevail. Good, Well, good on your
big Jim for being the sacrificial lamb. And that's from
Ted and I think James Ward. Jim Ward might have
been a sacrificial lamb there as well. He didn't like
what was going on. I hope they don't plant the
bloody thing in pine trees. Janet is lambing south down
(37:53):
studs in the manu A two started on the twentieth July,
going flat out, enjoying long days but enjoying some great weather.
Speaker 4 (38:04):
Long mate continue.
Speaker 2 (38:05):
I'm fond of saying this August, September and October, but
especially August and September the most important farming months.
Speaker 4 (38:13):
On the calendar. Weather weis. We'll catch you back tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (38:20):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie McGue. Thanks to Brent, you're specialist in
John Deere machinery.
Catch you all the latest from the land. It's The
Country Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to Brent. You're specialist
in John Deere construction equipment.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
When you devel is no ordinary Venue's the Philippines. Good
a New Zealand, Welcome to the Country. One night in Bangkok.
(00:35):
I think it's one morning in Bangkok. He's over there somewhere,
the Minister of Agriculture and Trade, Todd McLay. We go
straight to him and then we'll tell you what's on
the rest of the show later because he's a busy man.
He's seven o'clock in the morning over there. He's got
to go and do his JYM session. Todd McLay. As
I said, Minister of Agriculture and Trade, what are you
doing in Thailand? Are you in Bangkok?
Speaker 3 (00:57):
Yeah, Jamie, good afternoon. I am that's a great song.
I remember that, and I was told just yesterday there
was about a big gest tournament actually not what I
thought was going on in Tangkok. Hey, yes, I am here.
I've come out just to meet with the government. We
have a free trade agreement with twenty years old. At
the beginning of this year it ended fully into four
so no restriction, and a few of our dairy exporters
(01:18):
are saying they're finding it a bit harder getting product
into the market than they should under that agreement. So
I thought it'd come up and talk directly to them,
and we're making some progress here. They're very keen on
New Zealand product. They're just having a bit of challenges
with the system, so we'll keep talking to them. I
think we can probably work it out. It's just another
one of these cases where we enter in agreements. Everyone
(01:39):
has obligations. You're just going to make sure it works
for New Zealand exporters. And guess what, it always seems
to be dry at the moment.
Speaker 4 (01:46):
Have I got a case of Trump is them?
Speaker 3 (01:48):
No, it's just a change in the system. This is
the only trade agreement where it becomes fully liberalized, and
so there shouldn't be any restriction at all. In anything,
the trade works really well well. Two countries has grown.
We buy a lot more from them than we sell
them or to its pretty well and a lot of
what we put in this market is process further and
(02:09):
then exported everywhere. So it's just one of these cases
of working through it. I decided it has been going
on for a bit long, and I wanted to raise
it to ministerial level, and they've given me a commitment
to sort it out over the next handful of months.
So we'll work with them on that.
Speaker 2 (02:20):
Okay, Thailand one point six billion dollars worth to our economy.
I've tried or of exports. We see them there, Indonesia
one point nine seven. These are real growth areas, aren't they.
Speaker 3 (02:31):
So Southeast Asia is a priority that Chris Lackson has
set for the country. Actually, you know, New Zealand's a
little place, a long way from everywhere, but Southeast Asia
is as fastest growing region anywhere. And their process is
their factories want high quality, safe food products are put through.
They had a lot of value creating jobs in New
(02:53):
Zealand and over here and then they export it. But
their consumers are very keen on what we produce. I
went to supermarket yesterday and they had fruit and vEDS
from all over the world, and gee, some of the
New Zealand apples and you know other things key we
ridden here is selling for a wonderful price. So we're
just going to keep producing and keep making sure the
(03:14):
door's open to exporting and every time we're sending something
overseas produced by a New Zealand farmer, it creates jobs
in New Zealand.
Speaker 4 (03:22):
So are you flying directly from Bangkok to Washington?
Speaker 5 (03:26):
No?
Speaker 3 (03:26):
From here onto Indonesia, a growing market and you'll know
there we had a bit of problems getting onions and
earlier and with each agreements on it, just come out
and make sure that everything's working there. We're working on
the date to get up to Washington, and just got
up this morning early and seen correspondence, so it's not
too far away. I'm going up there to make the
(03:46):
case that actually the additional five percent tariff is unwarranted
and unnecessary and try and get a better understanding of
where they're heading from here. We've just got to start
getting certainty because for every export into that market, particularly meet,
it's getting challenging, not only the caraphry but the suggestion
that things change all the time. So you will have
(04:07):
heard over the weekend after the announcement on Friday, I
had a call very quickly with the equivalent of the
US Trade Minister, their trade the ambassador of Greer He
and I spoke less than twenty four hours after President
Trump's announcement. He invited me up there to sort of
work through this and have a better understanding. And so
over the next two weeks, I'll be on a plane
to Washington.
Speaker 2 (04:27):
If we had run a trade deficit with the US
like Australia does, would we have got ten percent?
Speaker 4 (04:34):
Is it as simple as that.
Speaker 3 (04:35):
It is as simple as that, That's right, he said
to me. Look, he was very open in frank I've
met him three times around the world. We've had calls
and conversations and you know, a few messages and so on.
He said, didn't matter if you had camped out here
in Washington, if you'd had a trade deal or you negotiating.
Any country that had a trade surplus against the US
(04:56):
last year is fifteen percent or more. So that's Correa
who have a deal, Japan who are working on one.
They're at fifteen percent. Switzerland is thirty nine percent, a
very big deficit. On the other case, you've got Australia
that brought more from Australia than from the US than
they sold them The UK the same, they're at ten percent.
(05:17):
So he said, you know, that was the decision, and
like it or not, that's what it would have been.
Speaker 2 (05:22):
We're very close to being trade neutral with the US,
though maybe we just need to maybe we just need
to buy some more of this stuff and get into
a tried deficit and then without the ten percent.
Speaker 3 (05:32):
Well, one of the things I want to understand is
the mechanism they're thinking about what happens, because he said
it's based on last year. So as an example of
this year, we go to deficit, we buy more from them,
will it change and how? And our exporters need to
know that it's clear to as I talked to many
of them that the ten percent that was about some
time ago they've been able to pass on, not all
(05:53):
of them, but many of them. Now is the extra
five percent that's challenging. You'll have to look whether they
can absorb that or some cases they're diverting product to
other markets because they're getting better prices. We're going to
give it this way. And look, I feel for the
beef exporters because you know, don't mean particularly hard that
the US does not have enough beef. They must import it.
(06:14):
We know they like New Zealand beef going to the
Hamburgers and so on, and so we're going to get
a bit more certainty, but on ten dollars worth of
beef it costs fifty cents more compared to Australia and Jamie,
I don't know whether the Australian beef will be ten
bucks and our ten fifty or both eleven. We know
they want the product at they're the biggest harm being
done to exporters all around the world at the moment,
(06:35):
apart from the escurbing costs of the tariff, is actually
the uncertainty.
Speaker 2 (06:40):
Indeed, Todd McLay early morning in Bangkok, thank you for
some of your time. You've got time to go and
do that gym session before you get on with your
day's work. Thank you very much for your time, and
you keep up the good work on behalf of us.
I'm not sure where they're going to Washington could be
a waste of your time, but there is a thought,
of course that you don't want to poke.
Speaker 4 (06:57):
The beer's right.
Speaker 3 (06:59):
But look, we've got a constructive relationship on trade. There
are challenges at the moment. We're going to get up
there and keep talking. You know, it's as simple as this.
If we sit at home, then we get forgotten. In
this case with the US, it is challenging, but it's
important to get up there and make New Zealand's case well.
Speaker 2 (07:16):
You could never be accused of sitting at home. Thank
you for your time.
Speaker 3 (07:19):
Thank you, Todd.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
McClay, Minister of Agriculture and Trade. Excuse me in Bangkok, Thailand,
Indonesia and at some stage very shortly off to the
off to Washington to plead our case. Up next Matt Bolger,
son of son of Jim Bolger. Not that that matters, well,
it actually does, because I think I owe an apology
(07:43):
Matt Bulger from Fonterra's MD of co op Affairs.
Speaker 4 (07:46):
Another I think it was a really good.
Speaker 2 (07:49):
GDT auction as some of our volume starts to come
onto the market before the end of the our our
dairy Farmer politician panel Andreward Grant McCullum, Emma Higgins out
of Rabobank, the prospect of the ten dollar Holy Grail
trifector for farming and Hunter McGregor. Our guy in Shanghai
(08:12):
is in Beijing. We'll see what he's up to. It's
all on the country and it's brought to you by Brandt.
Speaker 1 (08:26):
What the city is the krem Dela crame. I'm the
Jess World in a show with Averything England Fuel Renner.
Speaker 2 (08:32):
Let's have a look at last night's global dairy Trade
auction and it was a good one. Up zero point
seven percent. Key number Hoole milk powder up two point
one percent. To tell us more about it, Matt Bolger,
Managing director of co Op Affairs at Fonterra, and Matt,
before we get on to the milk price and the
GDT auction, I owe you an apology or your family
(08:53):
and apology. I think your father is, of course, Jim Bolger,
former Prime Minister, and I think last time we chatted
I may have called him Sir James Boulger, but being
a good Irishman, he didn't want a knighthood from the English.
Speaker 6 (09:05):
No, you might be right, but if you're going to
cause somebody offense, I think you're pretty taste on that count.
And that's not the worst thing you could have said
about him. So we're still friends.
Speaker 2 (09:14):
Well, thank you for that, Matt, and good on them
for sticking to his principles. This a GDT auction was
pretty much exactly as the futures market predicted it.
Speaker 7 (09:24):
Yeah.
Speaker 6 (09:25):
Look I got up this morning and saw the numbers
and it was really positive auction. Good thing to note
in this we obviously had a small price increase across
the board and in a healthy one and homework powder, but
at this time of year, we're increasing volume, so we
probably had a fifty percent increase in the volume sold
on this auction, and as farms are starting to milk
(09:48):
and we're selling into more of the peak period. So
to have that increase in volume and then healthy prices,
we're pleased with that outcome.
Speaker 2 (09:56):
Okay, whole milk powder two point one percent, very positive,
skim milk powder zero point four percent. Butter down three
point eight percent, and that I'm assuming that's because of
the door stopping that Miles Hurrell had to take from
Mikey Sherman. He decided to lower the price of butter.
Speaker 4 (10:12):
Is that right, mate?
Speaker 6 (10:14):
No, No, we'll refer back to global markets on that one,
I think, Jamie. So no, Look, butter came down a
little bit, so that might be a little bit of
relief here because obviously the prices that we all pay,
hume families pay at the supermarket check out of New Zealand,
they're all sort of linked back to those global butter prices.
So those that come down a little bit, which you
(10:34):
know may help a little bit on the relief side.
But of course in terms of New Zealand's economy, high
prices and the area are a great thing. So but
across the boarder there's say positive signs and particularly when
you look at it in the context to extra volume
on this week.
Speaker 2 (10:50):
Yeah, and a key we dollar that's sub sixty US sense,
it's all boding well for this season twenty five twenty six.
I think this auction was the first one hit by
a fifteen percent tariff.
Speaker 4 (11:03):
What difference did that make?
Speaker 6 (11:06):
Look, there's not a lot of buyers on GDT out
of the United States. That's not the way that they
it's not necessarily the products they buy, and that's not
their method of buying. So the direct impact isn't there.
There's still a fair bit of uncertainty out there around
the implication of the US tariffs, So you know, we're
(11:27):
watching that unfold and of course talking with our US
customers daily and then over time of course that may
expand out a little bit across into some of the
other markets. But you know, that's that's evolving pretty much
on it.
Speaker 2 (11:38):
Well, it's fair to say Matt Bolger that dereries probably
faring better than red meat and wine for instance, probably
two of the segments or sectors that are going to
be hardest hit by these tariffs.
Speaker 6 (11:50):
Yeah, I think that's I think that's he Jammy, there
are you know, there are some markets that export there
into the United States now that would have an advantage
over us from a tariff point of view. I'm Canada
being an obvious one, so you know, it's not something
that we're unconcerned about. But look, Richard Allen and his team,
they do a fantastic job of looking at, you know,
(12:11):
where we can sell products, and I guess having access
and relationships in markets all around the world means that
when there are challenges in one area, you know we
do have options.
Speaker 2 (12:20):
Okay, Matt Bolger, thank you very much for your time,
Managing Director of co Op Affairs from Fonterra onwards and
upwards for the twenty five twenty six stairy season.
Speaker 8 (12:29):
That's us.
Speaker 6 (12:29):
Thanks Ammy, Thank you, Matt.
Speaker 2 (12:32):
Twenty two after twelve The Country's brought to you by
Brand News at eleven o'clock if you missed out on
it this morning. Unemployment has reached five point two percent
on the June Court, up from five point one on
the March quarter. Everyone was predicting five point three, so
maybe that's a positive result.
Speaker 4 (12:50):
It's the highest it's.
Speaker 2 (12:51):
Been since September twenty twenty, but lower than the forecast
five point three. Obviously, the unemployment rate has climbed from
just three point two percent in late twenty twenty one.
You remember those times, the COVID times when you could
literally walk out the door and go and get a
job at the place on the other side of the street.
Speaker 4 (13:09):
Those days have gone.
Speaker 2 (13:11):
Economists had been broadly expecting another rise today. They got one,
but opinions are divided on whether the job market is
turning around or unemployment will go even higher. Very tough
out there for young people to get a job at
the moment. Up next, lighting things up a wee bit
with the Dairy Farmer Politician Panel Grant McCullum out of
(13:33):
Northland Andrew Hoggard out of the Manuwatu.
Speaker 4 (13:44):
Next to the see.
Speaker 2 (13:52):
Today's panel is the Dairy Farmer Politician Panel Andrew Hoggard, Manuwatu,
Dairy Farmer Activist MP, Minister of Biosecurity Grant McCullum. The
National MP for Northland. That's about where it ends, isn't it.
Speaker 4 (14:07):
Grant, Yes, thank you.
Speaker 7 (14:10):
I'm very happy to be the next Northwold. You've got
to start somewhere, mate.
Speaker 3 (14:14):
It goes.
Speaker 2 (14:14):
Yes, you've got to start somewhere now, carving. You've got
good day jobs. You two good paying day jobs being politicians.
Do you go back home in the weekends and do
the hard yards carving? Because you're both dairy farmers, like go.
Speaker 5 (14:29):
Beck and Helpless, we're in the calves, so that's my
job on the weekends and it sort of keeps me
sane and I just get to worry about little calves
butting me where I don't want them to butt me
and trying to bot my fingers off.
Speaker 2 (14:40):
Well that's the life of a dairy farmer. Okay, So
Andrew Hoggard he does the hard yards at home and
the weekend. Grant, you've always been a bit of a
Queen street farmer, do you bother?
Speaker 7 (14:51):
Thank you very much. Actually, up until Reefly, I was
a full time farmer.
Speaker 8 (14:55):
But no.
Speaker 7 (14:55):
Actually, now that I'm an electric MP, I spent my
time doing my electric work in the weekends with Andrew.
But you're listening piece obviously got nothing else to do.
The home fee carbs.
Speaker 2 (15:06):
You realize there's an irony. And you know I said
you've got good paying day jobs. The way the GDT
auction and the payouts are going, you two might have
to quit politics and become full time farmers again.
Speaker 4 (15:16):
It'll pay better.
Speaker 7 (15:18):
You don't need words.
Speaker 4 (15:21):
No, I'm sure you don't go in it for the money.
Speaker 2 (15:23):
Right. I'll start with you, Andrew putting on your Minister
of biosecurity hat. What about these wilding pines? Are they
an absolute threat? We're spending money, probably not enough to
get rid of them, but there is a bit of
an irony that we're spending all this money to get
rid of plants that sequest a carbon, and then we're
growing plants i pine trees on good food producing land.
(15:45):
Maybe we should just let the wilding pines go.
Speaker 5 (15:48):
Well, no, they're very definitely the wrong tree in the
wrong place. They spread like nobody's business. And the problem
is they spread. We go at lease there is where
it's out of control all the sea source and that
blows onto farmers lands and then the peoral farmer is
left trying to pull these bloody things out so they
can keep farming the land. So these ones are an
(16:10):
important one to remove. We don't want them. Their poor quality,
they're no good for timber or anything like that. They're
just an absolute pest. So the irony isn't lost on
me though There's been many a time when people have
been talking about we could plant these wild employments sorry
normal points to sequest a carbon on government land. And
then I look at it and go, is this the
(16:32):
same government land that I'm paying to get rid of
pines from?
Speaker 6 (16:35):
Yah?
Speaker 2 (16:35):
Yeah, there is an irony there. And Grant McCallum, I'll
go to you. What's the inside oil on Molesworth.
Speaker 7 (16:42):
Yeah, they're working through all that. I would ultimately it
will be farmed properly and appropriately, and we're i'd like
to think that we're going to keep it as a
functioning station and keep the and we're working with the
ministers to makes to see if we can make sure
we keep wilding pines under control and keep the and
(17:04):
keep any paracy paint to an absolute non noons at all,
because it's an iconic station.
Speaker 4 (17:09):
Absolutely, I agree with you, Andrew. Sorry, awhere you go.
Speaker 5 (17:12):
There are a couple of months ago and cattle is
the best best tool for that station, and I would
be extremely disappointed and sentily speaking against it if anyone
was to be suggesting that we're just planting the whole
bloody lot and pines are the subjects.
Speaker 2 (17:26):
For discussion a GMO food labeling. Who wants to start
on that one, Biosecurity Minister, I.
Speaker 5 (17:31):
Guess well, food safety minister. Actually, yeah, Look, this was
part of the joint work we do with Australia and
it's basically making sure that the labeling rules are consistent
with the legislation Australias has currently and what will be
our legislation, which is very similar to the Australian legislation.
So it's just a symbol case of making sure we
(17:52):
don't have labeling rules that are completely at odds with
our actual legislation. Doesn't stop anyone from wanting to label
that no gene editing was used, and you'll there will
still be labeling for genetic modification. But again it's just
about making the consumer have The consumer's got the choice
as to whether they want to look for labels. If
(18:14):
they're not interested, then they don't have to worry about
the cost of all these extra labeling being put on
products now.
Speaker 4 (18:21):
Grant McCallum, we're getting rid of petrol tax.
Speaker 8 (18:24):
Yeah, well, actually yes we are that.
Speaker 7 (18:25):
It was announced day by the Minister Chrispisshipments the Transport.
We're going to over time get rid of the petrol
tax and move to road user charge system so you
pay by distance and weight of vehicle, which will make
it which will be fairer for everybody, because what's happening
currently is actually we've got because of the more fel
efficient vehicles on the road and the electric vehicles, we're
(18:47):
getting less. We've been we've been getting less and less
petrol tax, which and yet we all want to drive
on good roads, so those two equations don't match up.
So over time we're going to work towards a system
which will be fairer for everybod.
Speaker 4 (19:00):
What's the logistics around doing that?
Speaker 7 (19:03):
Well, the beautiful thing this stage technology will help work
make a big difference there. It won't be a paper
based system, it'll be a left electronic one and that's
the sudden we'll work through and we will allow the
private sector to help us to develop those tools.
Speaker 2 (19:16):
Hey, just to finish on guys, Grant, you sent me
a text while I was speaking to David Seymour, Andrew's boss,
a bit earlier in the week, and you were basically gloating,
living vicariously whereever you want to say it about Simon
Parker getting into the All Blacks and your kind of
claim and credit for this, because you said without your
without your coaching him as a nine year old, he
(19:38):
wouldn't have made it.
Speaker 7 (19:41):
Not quite true. I coached against him. It was quite
ironic acshally when he was under the under nines playing
against my son. He was huge even back then, so
the opposition coach played him at half back, so he
got the ball all the time and he ran around
with the ball in one hand. He was a big
boy and his mother, bless her, often carried a burth
of for because all the parents question we do is
(20:01):
under nines because that's when there were no weight restrictions
back then. Of course, often in country rugby, it's just
the way it is. But no, I'm really pleased for
him and for the for his family because he's worked
really hard. He's had a few injury issues over the
years and he maybe he could be that answer at six.
We've been looking for him bruising forward we.
Speaker 2 (20:20):
Need a big raw boned bugger and the number six jersey.
He could be the answer. And final comment from you
Andrew Hogart. The Man or two Turbos had a one
perennial wooden spooners.
Speaker 5 (20:31):
Yeah, that was one of the books. And good on
the turbos. It's not something we usually get to celebrate.
So it's really good to see the Green and White
get over the line and several times and actually to
beat North Harbor. So very start to the season.
Speaker 4 (20:47):
Okay, then final camp one.
Speaker 7 (20:49):
Here we go the author of to Beat South this
weekend in fong Ray and then I'll just make my
weekend perfectly. Actually, Jamie, what do you reckon?
Speaker 2 (20:59):
Well, I would take you on for a wager, but
I've just run out of time, so I'll see you later.
Speaker 4 (21:05):
Thanks for being on the panel.
Speaker 2 (21:06):
Team, see your lads, Thank you very much. Twenty seven
away from twelve. Very shortly, Michelle's going to wander in
here the latest and rural news, which is brought to
you by cub Cadet. Actually got a text from the
bloke who runs the company, John McAvennie. Thanks for listening, John.
(21:26):
Every listener is a prisoner on this show. John says
steell Fort's doing its bit for US relationships. All of
their ride on mowers come out of or are manufactured
in the US. That's the cub cadet and the hustler.
So John, we need more patriots like yourself to buy
some more stuff off the US, and then we can
(21:47):
run a trade deficit like Australia, and then Trump won't
have any excuse. He's got to drop at taro freight
down to ten percent. I reckon he's kind of making
it up as he goes, but there you go. So
up next to Rural New Sports News before the end
of the hour, Emma Higgins on the prospect of a
ten dollar holy grail for farming, and Hunter McGregor, our
(22:09):
Shanghai correspondent, is in Beijing, magnificent city. Welcome back to
the country. The show is brought to you by Brandt.
(22:30):
Very shortly the latest and rural news and sports news
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Speaker 1 (23:38):
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Speaker 2 (23:47):
All right, good afternoon, Michelle. What are you got for
us and aurural news?
Speaker 3 (23:51):
Well?
Speaker 9 (23:52):
First up, did you know today is a very special day?
Speaker 5 (23:55):
Uh?
Speaker 4 (23:55):
What is the date? The sixth of August?
Speaker 9 (23:58):
Tel Pray tell it is farm worker appreciation day to day.
Speaker 4 (24:03):
Well, that's fair enough the one who sits at home
and makes up all these days. There's a day for
every day of the year and more.
Speaker 2 (24:10):
But yes, at this time of the year in particular,
you need to look after the farm workers because a
lot of them, especially in the dairy industry at this time,
and shortly in the sheep industry with lamming.
Speaker 4 (24:19):
Will be doing long hours. Appreciate your farm workers absolutely.
Speaker 9 (24:23):
Let's fall on at the moment some things in the
news we have got. Federated Farmers is urging rural North
Canterbury residents to attend to public meetings. One of those
is tonight and Colvid and so if you want to
find out more about that, maybe called your local Federated
Farmers branch and find out how you can attend that one.
Of course, it's all about the police service cuts that
(24:44):
they're proposed that's been proposed up in that area. Also
in New Zealand's avocado exporters have united under a collective
fer and Mark license, which is a first for the
hort sector. The far and Markers Government's original official mark
of origin signifying authenticity, quality and governm Our New Zealand
avocados are known for their rich taste, nutritional value and
sustainable growing practices. Industry leaders say the license reflects a
(25:07):
sheared vision and builds trust in international markets.
Speaker 2 (25:10):
And I'm glad to see the avocado growers getting a
better go this year. Don't like avocados, They're too mushy
for me. Give me a Kiwi fruit gold any day.
But a taste is subjective, isn't it.
Speaker 9 (25:21):
One day you'll need mushy food.
Speaker 4 (25:23):
Joe, Well, that's not a bad shot. There you go, Michelle,
that's not bad at all. Here's sport.
Speaker 1 (25:29):
Sport with AFCO. Visit them online at AFCO dot co
dot NZ.
Speaker 2 (25:34):
Lewis Clarebird admits there's plenty of work to do if
he's to stand atop of the podium at next year's
Commonwealth Games. The Olympian broke his own two hundred meter
individual medley national record at the World Swimming Champs in Singapore,
but failed to make the final of this favored four
hundred meter i AM and a back complaint means will ow'
(25:57):
rourke has joined Nathan Smith and being ruled out of
the black Caps second Test, starting in Bulawayo tomorrow, night,
and that is your sports news here on the country.
And if you haven't caught up on the big employment
news this morning, the unemployment rate is at five point
two percent, about to go to five point three percent, Michelle,
(26:17):
if you come out with any more ageous comments like that.
Up next to Emma Higgins, she is a senior ag
analyst for Rabobank. One of the shortest titles in the
Rabobank stable. Actually, Emma Higgins. Always good to get her
on the show. We've chatted to Matt Boulger from Fonterra
about the GDT auction. Do you think another positive auction
(26:40):
is ten dollars? I know you're going to I know
you're going to duck for cover on this one, Emma,
but it's ten dollars done and dusted for the twenty
five twenty sixth season.
Speaker 8 (26:49):
Well, you know what I might surprise you here. Look,
I do think ten dollars is looking pretty good right now.
There's a few things, as usual, put my caveats in there.
I think that one is really how the market will
respond over the next several weeks when we're coming into
critical timing for mint production and also the bulk of
(27:09):
our volume that is offered on the GDT platform tends
to step up over the next sort of seven GDTs
as well. So how all of that aligns with potentially
bumper spring milk production will be critical as to how
that ten dollar price point moves at this point in time,
I believe.
Speaker 4 (27:27):
Let's talk about tariffs.
Speaker 2 (27:28):
Now, this is the first GDT auction I think that
was affected or factored factoring in a fifteen percent tariff
to the US. And as I discussed with Matt, obviously
the US isn't a huge dairy market compared to what
it is for the likes of red meat and wine.
But what sort of effect do you think it's having
aon dairy and be more importantly in your wheelhouse on
(27:52):
red meat?
Speaker 8 (27:54):
Yeah, and look at us quite an interesting one, isn't it,
Because we're all sort of finding our feet in terms
of what might happen from here. Look, I think in
terms of dairy New Zealand really stands to benefit and
I'm sure you've probably heard it from some of your
other commentators just around how New Zealand could ultimately look
to supply any gaps that might emerge due to other
(28:14):
more unfavorable tariff amounts. That are being imposed. But ultimately,
the biggest story I think the New Zealand farmers really
comes down to what's happening in the red meat space,
and specifically for beef, because what we've got is a
really interesting dynamic starting to emerge. We've got steady farm
gate pricing for beef, which is excellent at the farm
gate price here in New Zealand. We've got a US
(28:35):
important market which is incredibly strong due to the lack
of supply domestically and the fact that they've got low
inventries and the herd rebuilding is unjust happening. But we
need to layer on top of it the dynamics with
Brazil because what's been happening is that they have front
loaded a heic of a lot of products into the
(28:57):
United States. These around about three hundred thousand tons of
beef that's entered into the US so far. Normally they
are in parallel with our volumes, which are currently sitting
at around one hundred and fifty thousand tons, So the
exports are up over one hundred percent year and year,
and what we think has been happening is that they've
been trying to frontload that product into the US market,
(29:19):
because when we add all the various carrier tariffs and
quota amounts, et cetera all up, it looks like Brazil
are facing around a seventy six percent tariff. So because
of that, we're expecting that those products from Brazil are
likely to start slowing down. But the probably the impacts
(29:40):
for New Zealand farmers is that we're likely to continue
to see steady pricing for beef and less upside as
the US market continues to digest what are really strong
volumes and have shipped across from Brazil. The good news
is that that heard rebuild is happening in the States,
it's only just kicked off. We think the cow cull
is down and we know that their hea forer attentions
(30:02):
are only just starting to left at the moment, So
we think the good news is that the steady market
looks to be in play for the next three to
four years. New Zealand does have a slight disadvantage when
it comes to tariffs, having a fifteen percent number compared
to a ten percent imposed for Australia, so all things
(30:23):
being equal, it does put us on slightly back foot,
but the dynamics are so strong that I think New
Zealand will be okay.
Speaker 2 (30:30):
Emma Higgins, thank you very much for your time today
on the country from Rabobank. Imagine if we got the
trifector ten dollar milk price, ten dollar beef price, ten
dollar lamb price, that would be farming utopia, wouldn't that?
Speaker 8 (30:45):
And look two out of three ain't bad and the
words of meat loaf and we're possibly there on sheep meat.
Speaker 2 (30:50):
So we'll see, well, well to see what happens with beef.
Not not a bad weeplay on words there from you either. Emma,
thanks for your time.
Speaker 8 (30:58):
Thanks Jamie, thank you.
Speaker 4 (31:00):
Emma.
Speaker 2 (31:00):
Yeah, beef gets the ten bucks. We do have the
Holy Grail up next. We're going to wrap the country
with some of your feedback. He's our guy in Shanghai,
Hunter McGregor, Roxburgh born and bred. He's over there and
has been for a long time, selling venison and red
(31:22):
meat to the Chinese. But Hunter, you're not in Shanghai,
the westernized Chinese city. You're in old old world China
as I would describe it. You're in Beijing at the moment.
It's just a wonderful contrast between those two cities.
Speaker 3 (31:37):
Yeah.
Speaker 10 (31:37):
Good afternoon, Jamie, Yeah, no, it's China is such a
big country, and you know, it's so diverse and very different,
and you know, being spending a bit of time in Beijing,
it feels like sort of you know, from a New
Zealand point of view, going to Australia is very familiar,
but there's a lot of small differences that you pick
(31:58):
up on, and you know, I can pick up on
a lot of differences here that everything's very different to Shanghai.
And yeah, here for the week on a bit of
a holiday and enjoying some Beijing heat. So that's really good.
Speaker 4 (32:13):
Mind joul to be stinking hot in Shanghai as well,
is it.
Speaker 10 (32:17):
Oh yeah, it's actually hotter in Shanghai, so that's a
little bit cooler here. But yeah, when you're sort of
thirty thirty thirty five degrees high humidity, it's.
Speaker 3 (32:26):
Not much fun.
Speaker 10 (32:27):
But you know in Beijing that the people are a
lot different because you know, you've got a high hot
summer and you've got a super cold winter. You get
down to minus twenty minus thirty, and I think that
hard winter, you know, makes people a little bit harder
up here, a little bit more, but they roll there
are is like good self and is up here. S
(32:48):
I find that my Chinese really improves because you just
sort of mumble fast and sort of put an R
sound on the end of everything's dound like a local.
Speaker 4 (32:56):
Are you wearing your Beijing bikini? And what is a
Beijing bikini?
Speaker 10 (33:01):
While it's it's something that's really funny, it's because the
Beijing is up here, especially in summer, they like sitting
around and drinking their local Yanjing beer and eating lamb
on skewers, and you don't get to do that down
and especially down in Shanghai. They're a bit more sophisticated.
So they sit up here, especially at nighttime on the street,
(33:23):
and it's fantastic. You sit there, you drink your cold
beer and lamb skewers, and what people do is they
especially if they've got a they've got a good body,
if they've been doing that for a while, and they
get their motor out and they roll up their shirt
and let their belly hang out, and it's sort of
a famous sort of thing. You don't see that that
very often at the moment in Beijing. But yeah, last time, yeah,
(33:46):
ten to fifteen years ago, it was everywhere, So I
haven't seen too many Beijing bikinis, but hopefully we'll see
a few more tonight when I get out on the
streets and eat a bit of lambs, some lamb skiwers
and drink some beer.
Speaker 2 (33:58):
Well, for anyone who hasn't been lucky enough to go
to Beijing, it's a magnificent city. Obviously, there's so much
history and heritage there. I love the Forbidden City and
Tienuman Square right in the middle there. But you've been down?
Speaker 4 (34:11):
Is it down? Is it south of that the Summer Palace?
Speaker 10 (34:17):
Yeah, sort of on the edge of town, the Summer Palace,
there's a man made lake that they more or less
dug dig to make a hill which is sixty meters high,
and you know, it's a fantastic place. It's a little
bit cooler than with the breeze coming off the lake
and things like that, but you know it was made
(34:38):
in seventeen fifty. It took them sixteen years to sort
of dig the lake and make this a big mountain
to put a palace on. So yeah, it's impressive that
you know the history and things around Beijing. It is
definitely a place you really want to visit once in
a lifetime and experience it all because it's very different.
Speaker 2 (34:57):
Just to finish on, we always talk about the state
of the Chinese economy. I note that you're coming back
when it comes to our global dairy trade auctions. We've
had good Chinese interest again overnight. Are you seeing that
pick up in the Chinese economy? And does Beijing move
slower than Shanghai?
Speaker 10 (35:14):
Beijing moves at a different speed. It's still still reasonably fast,
but it's got a very different feel to Shanghai and
the rest of the country because you know that the
government sits here. It's a bit like Wellington and Auckland there,
but they move at different speeds and things like that.
But you know, what I've noticed is that I've been
traveling and living in China for eighteen years now, and
(35:38):
the tourism is picking up, is a lot more than
what it once was. And you know, people are happy
to spend for an experience and do something different, so
they're all getting out. So these tourism sites are absolutely
packed all across the country because people, you know, at
the moment we're in the middle of summer holidays, just
(36:00):
sort of two months for everybody it's a July and August,
so there's a lot of driving, a lot of consumption,
you know, around around the whole country. Tourism's and that's
a positive thing, you know, it's local tourism mostly the
foreigners are starting to come back, but that's driving a
lot of consumption, which I was just surprised at how
(36:20):
many people were at the Summer Palace yesterday.
Speaker 2 (36:22):
God.
Speaker 10 (36:23):
You know, I've been there a few times before and
there's hardly anybody, so, you know, it's just interesting. Things
are always changing up here, Jamie.
Speaker 2 (36:30):
Yeah, and you can't get into the Forbidden City because
there's one point four billion Chinese all wanting to look
at it as well, Hunter McGregor, enjoy your family break
in Beijing.
Speaker 4 (36:40):
We'll catch you back in a couple of weeks at
home in Shanghai.
Speaker 3 (36:44):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (36:44):
Thanks, Jeremy, I thank you, Hunter.
Speaker 2 (36:47):
Right, some are your feedback and if you get the opportunity,
Beijing's magnificent. You can go and look at the Great
Wall of China and go to the Olympic events or
stadium where they had the Olympics in two thousand and
what do they call it the bird's nest for the
athletics and the ice cube for the swimming. Some of
your feedback on the holy Grail, the ten dollar holy Grail,
(37:08):
Sandra Faulkner, ever enthusiastic campaign for wool end Z trustee, says,
what about a ten dollars strong wall price? Jeez, well,
I would love to think that's possible, but I'm not
sure it does. Hopefully I'm wrong on that one. It
needs to be ten dollars. Read the pine trees on Molesworth.
Maybe Jim Ward voting with his feet first activated some
(37:33):
sanity to prevail, to prevail. Good, Well, good on your
big Jim for being the sacrificial lamb. And that's from
Ted and I think James Ward. Jim Ward might have
been a sacrificial lamb there as well. He didn't like
what was going on. I hope they don't plant the
bloody thing in pine trees. Janet is lambing south down
(37:53):
studs in the manu A two started on the twentieth July,
going flat out, enjoying long days but enjoying some great weather.
Speaker 4 (38:04):
Long mate continue.
Speaker 2 (38:05):
I'm fond of saying this August, September and October, but
especially August and September the most important farming months.
Speaker 4 (38:13):
On the calendar. Weather weis. We'll catch you back tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (38:20):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie McGue. Thanks to Brent, you're specialist in
John Deere machinery.
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