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August 19, 2025 • 38 mins

Jamie Mackay talks to Christopher Luxon, Michael Every, Andrew Murray, and Dr Jacqueline Rowarth.

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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie mckue Thanks to Brent. You're specialist in
John Dee machinery.

Speaker 2 (00:36):
Gooday, Good afternoon, New Zealand. I'm Jamie McKay. This is
the Country brought to you by Brent Beg's day today.
Just because I feel like it, you should be dancing.
Our first guest should definitely not be dancing. He did
a bit of dad dancing over the weekend and a
rare display of bipartisanship with Chris Sipkins. The Prime Minister

(00:57):
Christopher Luxan to kick off the show keynote an interview
today and I know this because I recorded it yesterday
afternoon when he was available. Was with Michael every Rabobanks,
Singapore based global strategists. So we talked about Trump the
peacemaker and if he can get a truce in Russia

(01:20):
or the Middle East with that result in a bit
of a sugar rush for the world economy. And then
in part two, because I had to split it in two,
we looked at Trump the disruptor and his tariffs and
how a trading nation like New Zealand can or whether
we can insulate ourselves against his tariffs. Todd mcclay's heading
over there as we speak. He'll be on the show tomorrow.

(01:41):
Our Minister of Agriculture and Trade are good. I think
it was a good GDT auction result. Overnight we're going
to dissect that with Andrew Murray, Fonterra's chief financial officer,
and doctor Jack Willnrowe, with one of my favorites here
on the Country, has written a great column. It's all
it's them me stupid. She's channeling James Carvill, who, of

(02:03):
course was the presidential or the advisor to Bill Clinton
for the nineteen ninety two presidential election. He hung his
hat on that and it worked for him. Let's face it.
It is the It is the economy, stupid. It is
all about the economy. Of course, it's ocr day today.
We'll get the Prime Minister's thoughts on that one as well.

(02:24):
So he kicks off the show next Wednesdays on the Country.

(02:47):
The PM kicks off the show. It's official Cash Rate
Announcement Day. And I know Prime Minister Christopher Luxen, you
can't say anything about this, but let me put some
words into your mouth. Acting. I think he's still acting.
Reserve Bank Governor Christian Hawk speed drops it as we expect,
by twenty five basis points, but then he indicates that's

(03:10):
where he's going to stop. That is surely trouble for
the economy.

Speaker 3 (03:15):
Look, I think when you look at a lot of
the economist reports, and you look at a lot of
even what the Reserve Bank said in their last meeting,
I get the sense that there's still downward momentum needed
on interest rates as well. So let's see what he
does today. As you quite rightly identify, Jamie, I can't
comment on it, give him the independence of the Reserve Bank,
but we certainly want to see a downward track on

(03:37):
interest rates. We've got inflation down. It's well within the
ban now of the one to three percent. It will
float around a bit like it could hit three percent
in the next quarter. But you know what the bank
looks at is what's called medium term inflation, and that's
how they base their assessment of interest rates. And so
you know, we're doing everything we can fiscally to get
inflation down. That durnes interest rates down. That gets the

(03:58):
growth up and running, and it gets people into work,
and that's the plan.

Speaker 2 (04:02):
There was an interesting column in the Herald yesterday that
said the economy is officially suffering from long COVID as
opposed to a COVID hangover, and the author Jan and
I've forgotten the name, for the second day in a
row said strong economic growth alone won't be enough to
get the government's finances back on track. And I know
you're going to disagree with this one as well. So

(04:24):
she was basically saying that there's only two solutions, more
spending cuts or increased taxes.

Speaker 3 (04:30):
Now I disagree. I mean, if you look at the
forecasts for the next four years, we're basically you know,
there are even today the banks of the economists are
still projecting that will grow the economy on average at
two point seven percent, just under three percent, and there's
two hundred and forty thousand jobs that will be crowded
off the back of that growth. What New Zealand really
needs is growth. I mean, this is the harsh reality.

(04:51):
You may not like it. I don't like it, but
that's the inheritance I got. You got the biggest recession
back since the early nineties, you ended up with a
COVID hangover. Begare house of that sixty six billion dollars
that were spent that we didn't get anything for. And
that is, as a Treasury said last week's you know,
ended up driving making the cost living worse and actually
up you know, really upsetting our fiscal track and our

(05:12):
financial track for for decades ahead. You know, that's the
reality of what we're trying to work our way through.
You know, we had good growth, if you remember at
the end of last year. We had really good growth
in the first quarter of this year, and then we
hit Liberation Day in April our with mister Trump. And
as a result, it's not that our bilateral trade is
smacked around as much. It's actually the fact that there's
a loss of confidence and sentiments, you know, because in

(05:32):
business people don't want to invest. That doesn't drive growth
and that's happening all around the world at the moment,
not just here in the right. So that's all we
got to work out way.

Speaker 2 (05:41):
And good political news this week Winston has kicked Trevor
Mallard to touch not before time. Why didn't you do
it earlier?

Speaker 3 (05:49):
Well, those are decisions that the Minister Foreign Affairs makes
about ambassadorial appointments across the across the world. I think Now,
Winston's had a pretty principled line, which is that actually
politicians have formed politicians is career diplomats. We're better off
with you with career diplomats in general. And so I
think that's been a strong, a strong principle of his.
But look, I mean, those are questions you have to

(06:09):
treat to him.

Speaker 2 (06:11):
Melo is the least diplomatic man in the world.

Speaker 3 (06:15):
I hear you, brother, But though the calls for the
ministerta making, I fully trust with them to make the
right call. So I'll leave it.

Speaker 2 (06:24):
You're happy to be the MP for of tow wrong
or on that one? A couple of the lighthearted ones
or are they lighthearted? To finish on Nichola making the
power play for your job, and of course the dad
dancing with hypocines, What were you thinking.

Speaker 3 (06:38):
Mate, when you've got a thousand people in a room
and the presenter calls you up on stage, is not
much hiding nowhere to hide? So I thought, well, bi
partisanship doesn't break out much, and there's not much I
agree with chrispt comes on percially about how to run
an economy. But if we're both going down, were males
will go down together?

Speaker 2 (06:54):
So I thought, and you did, and you did. What
about Nicholas power play? Was that just a Freudian slip
and accident in time?

Speaker 3 (07:03):
No, that was just really unfair. I think the only
the media beat up, you know, basically how it started
yesterday was that she came and you know we have
to go to a caucus run and all the press
gallery down here in Wellington, you know, just grab us
as we're going through what's called the tiles part of
Parliament and whoever gets there first, you know, it's in
front of the microphones and say, I don't know, but
I don't know how it happened. I actually haven't followed
the story, to be honest too much. You know, we're

(07:25):
pretty focused on what we've got to do, which is
SIXUS economy, and that's what we're focused on.

Speaker 2 (07:29):
Well, the Reserve Bank could go a long way today
by dropping it this afternoon, which they will, and then
dropping it another couple of times. Those are my words,
not yours, Prime Minister. Thanks as always for your time.

Speaker 3 (07:40):
Great to be with you, Janie, have a great week mate, Thank.

Speaker 2 (07:43):
You, Prime Minister, and you should not be dancing Beg's
day today on the country. Been lucky enough to go
to a lot of rospos. You call it rock where
you call the Beg's rock concerts, Eagles, Rolling Stones. But
the best concert I've ever been to in my life.
And I went along with our Australian correspondent Chris Russell

(08:06):
and his wife Jill and the program director and we
went to see the Beg's at Stadium Australia. They were
the first people to perform there. In fact, they performed
there just on the eve of the two thousand Sydney Olympics.
I think it was late nineteen ninety nine. Seventy thousand people.
I'm sure lots of you were there as well. Fantastic concert.

(08:29):
Big BG's fan, especially some of that early Beg's up next.
He's possibly my favorite correspondent. I shouldn't have favorite, should I,
But this guy always makes you think he's a bit
of an alarmist. His name is Michael every Rabobanks, Singapore
based global strategist. I caught up with them yesterday afternoon.

(08:49):
He's next on the Country. I love chatting to this

(09:14):
bloke on the country. His name is Michael every Rabobanks,
Singapore based global strategist. Michael. Let's get into it. As
we record this interview, is Trump on the verge of
an historic peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine? Or is
putin playing them like a fiddle a la Neville Chamberlain's

(09:35):
Peace in our time? After meeting with Hitler, what do
you reckon?

Speaker 4 (09:39):
Well, obviously everything is in flux, so you can't one
hundred say one or the other. But it does appear
to be much more the former than the latter. But
with terms and conditions, we have to see who's going
to be doing what and what Trump is effectively going

(09:59):
to do here is say, look, we're going to provide
a logistical backdrop to support what Europe is now going
to pay for, and Europe is going to deliver on
the ground. So if Europe, which loves to talk big
about how the world should be and how everyone should
do everything, if they are capable now of actually saying yes,

(10:20):
we will put our own boys and girls on the ground,
boots on the ground, we will rearm with with weapons
we buy from America, which has been part of the
Trump's plan all along, and with that we will guarantee
the eighty percent of Ukraine that's left provided that Kiv
signs up to this deal, then we at least have

(10:42):
stability for a while, even if in no way do
we actually have friendship and peace between between Russia and Ukraine.
It will be better than what we have now, certainly
if everyone signs up to what needs to be done.

Speaker 2 (10:56):
Yeah, but basically Ukraine is going to have to swallow
a dead ride.

Speaker 4 (11:01):
Well, Ukraine, it would appear, and quite logically, very sadly,
by the way, I don't say there was any happenings whatsoever,
is going to have to accept that what Russia has
taken it is incapable of forcing it to give back.
And for those you know listening who might think, well,
you know, first of all, the US or you know,
Europe or Europe's got nothing to bring to the table

(11:21):
militarily at the moment. But the US should be flooding
Ukraine with arms to try and push back. You'd have
to end up putting boots on the ground. And Russia
is much closer to Ukraine, and it has what we
call escalatory dominance. Russia will always be prepared to say, well,
We're going to go further and harder than you, because
this matters to us more than it does to you.
And America is simply not going to do that. So

(11:42):
then your only other alternative is from America and Europe
together to say we will sanction the hell out of
everybody who does business with Russia to break their economy.
They could have done that from day one, from day one,
they could have done that, but you know who that
means sanctioning just about everyone, including some European countries who
buy Russian energy. By the way, no one's prepared to
actually do that. So if they're not going to put

(12:03):
up and they're not, this is probably the most realistic
best option that's left on the table. But yes, Ukraine
will regrettably because this wasn't done years ago and it
should have been, and by Europe, Ukraine will probably have
to see twenty percent of its land if we.

Speaker 2 (12:21):
Can get pace or even a meaningful ceasefire and both
Russia and the Middle East. What effect does that have
on the world economy? Are We're going to have a
bit of a sugar rush as a result.

Speaker 4 (12:34):
I wouldn't say sugar, I'd say a gunpowder rush, because
everyone will continue arming, particularly in Europe on the Ukraine side,
the European side, and on the Russian side, to ensure
they're in the best position if one or the other
stumbles or just decides that they can't keep up the pace.
So we will definitely see an economic boom from things

(12:57):
that go boom, But of course you have to trade
off between guns and butter unless you want inflation to.

Speaker 3 (13:03):
Go through the roof.

Speaker 4 (13:04):
And that's going to mean some real wrenching changes that
people in Europe in particular, just frankly aren't prepared for yet.
I think it will have to happen, but it's going
to be quite the political, economic, and psychological shock for
them when they see they're coming. And in the Middle East, well, look,
it's always always on a nice edge there. I think
certain areas can certainly see positive change relatives to where

(13:26):
we are now. I mean, it wouldn't be hard, given
how bad things are there, but it will still be
alongside what's happening in Europe, part of a global reset,
which is still at the end of the day, coming
down to the US versus China, and so I don't
think there's any war looming on that front, to be
abundantly clear, but any economic boom that we get is

(13:46):
going to be constrained by the fact that you're likely
to see people saying whose side are you on as
we start drawing lines on the map, and we're already
seeing a lot of that this year.

Speaker 2 (13:55):
As you know, Michael Avery with us, he is Rabobanks
Singapore based global strategist. We're going to take a break
and part two of this interview we're going to continue
the Trump theme. We're going to talk about as tariffs
and how New Zealand as a trading nation can insulate
themselves against them. The country continues with Michael Every, Singapore

(14:24):
based global strategist for Rabobank. We've talked about Donald Trump
the peacemaker. What about Donald Trump the disruptor with his tariffs?
Michael every how does a country like New Zealand insulate
itself as best it can against the Trump tariffs when,
for instance, our friends across the Tasman Australia have got

(14:45):
a lower teriff freight than us.

Speaker 4 (14:48):
Yes, well that doesn't help, does it? I mean five
percent isn't a game changing, It's just necessarily. Although margins
are tight in some areas of industry and you need
to watch them carefully, you have to accept that the
tariffs and that disruption come alongside the peace deals. They
are all part of the same package. And I have
been saying that, you know, in earlier chats we've had,

(15:09):
and that the best thing to do is to try
and get on the phone to the White House with
Australia would have been even better to strengthen your arm
and to actually just say, look, we understand what you're
trying to do in terms of reordering the international system.
We're not going to fight you. We want to work
with you. Now. To an extent, you could say you've
not got the worst of deals. You know, your tariff
isn't wonderful, but it's not as high as some others

(15:29):
have got. Look at poor old Switzerland or India for
example at the moment, or Brazil. But you have to
just recognize that. In the same way that the US
has been able to maybe achieve some kind of piece
of sorts in Ukraine by literally telling Europe you are
going to rearm and enforce this, We're not, you know,
We're only going to be there in the background. By

(15:51):
sheer will and power. They've been able to do that.
The US is going to dictate to everyone how global
trade works going forward. So either you don't deal with
the US at all, and good luck to you on that,
because no one's already had a lot of luck finding
anyone else as a market to replace everything they buy.
You know, are you sell more purely domestically, and again
good luck with that for everybody. Or you listen to

(16:12):
what they want and you try and work with them
as much as possible.

Speaker 2 (16:16):
You mentioned India. We're trying at the moment to get
a free trade agreement with India and get competitive with
their Australian cousins across the Tasman How much potential does
India present for a country like New Zealand. They're going
to be the world's third biggest economy by twenty thirty.
They are currently the world's fastest growing economy. Surely we

(16:39):
need some eggs in the Indian basket.

Speaker 4 (16:42):
Well yeah, And unfortunately, again, the time to have been
doing this would have been years ago when I was
telling people that's exactly what should have been done. But
everyone in New Zealand and elsewhere was keeping all their
eggs in another basket which I won't name, And right
now at the moment that's still on paper makes a
lot of sense, except for the fact that we're on
a nine s edge because geopolitically, the US and India

(17:02):
are really not in a good place whatsoever. In fact,
the headline this morning is I'm speaking to you, is
that India is saying we want to do everything we
can to kiss up to China again. Now, I don't
know how sustainable that will be. I don't know if
they really mean it or if it's just a play
to try and get America's attention again. But we're India
to go that route at a time when I am
stressing the world is going to be starting to bifurcate

(17:23):
into whose side are you on kind of deals, and
New Zealand says, well, we want to be in that camp. Well,
you're not going to get on well with America and
there are going to be consequences for that. So I'm
not saying that will happen. I'm just saying that, Yeah,
ten years ago would have been a much better time
to be doing what you just floated.

Speaker 2 (17:39):
Hindsight, it's a wonderful thing. Look, we're enjoying record commodity
prices for the likes of dairy, ki we fruit, red
meat at the moment. Can we stay at these elevated levels?

Speaker 4 (17:51):
Well, I don't want to talk specific to any of
those sectors, as I'm sure everyone knows ra our bank
has got experts in all of them, and that doesn't
include me. But what I can certainly say is that
the underlying inflation and that's what it is, because when
prices go up, that's called inflation. When we're the seller,
we don't consider it inflation. We consider it to be
something good. When we're the buyer, it's inflation. But that's

(18:12):
the way, that's the way statistics work. We don't see
any clear sign that that's completely sorted out on every front.
And you've just alluded to that in terms of what
you know, what grows and produces in New Zealand are seeing.
And yet we are seeing central banks from your own
in New Zealand to the to the Federal Reserve up
in the US talking, you know, or being pushed bit

(18:34):
by bit into cutting interest rates. And so what do
you think that's going to mean?

Speaker 2 (18:38):
Can I ask you about a dirty word and economics, stagflation.

Speaker 4 (18:44):
Stagflation? Yes, well, that's something that lots of people pooh
poohed years ago and said you can't have it, and
it's exactly what we do have to a certain extent.
In the structurally, our economies are not performing anywhere near
as well as they used to, with one or two exceptions,
one or two sectors. You know, you could say, you know,
breaking it down a bit, and yet we do have

(19:07):
a far stickier level of inflation. It's certainly in pockets
like services than anyone presumed we were going to have
pre COVID. I mean, you can have a really limping along,
you know, we're doing it hard kind of economy which
many people are experiencing, and you still get really sticky
upward movement in prices where it just doesn't come down again.
That is stagflation light. I think that would be the

(19:30):
easiest way to describe it. And of course it doesn't
feel so lightly. You haven't got much money in your pocket.
But what do you do? What do you do about that?
And I can tell you, having spoken to the great
and the good around the world, if they haven't got
a clue.

Speaker 2 (19:41):
Michael every Rabobanks, Singapore based global strategist, Thanks as always
for your time, really appreciative. I'll catch you back hopefully
in the next month or two. Come rain, hail, snow
or Donald Trump getting a Nobel peace price. See, yeah,
thank you, Michael. Something we prepared yesterday afternoon. Imagine if

(20:02):
the Trumpster can pull off a truce or peace with Russia,
Ukraine and maybe something in Gaza, Heaven help us. See
we'll get the Nobel Peace Prize. Now. This is staying
alive by the begs. The older you get, folks, the
more you become aware of your mortality. And there's not
that many upsides, let's be honest, growing old, I don't

(20:25):
think there is. But one of them isiscing, reminiscing with
your mates. And a month or two ago down in
my hometown in riversdar we had a reunion of our
champion rugby side from nineteen eighty five, forty years on,
and we were all there apart from four, which is
out of a squad of about twenty five. It's not

(20:46):
that flash, is it.

Speaker 3 (20:47):
Well?

Speaker 2 (20:47):
I got it. I just got a text I'm diverting
a wee bit, I'm pivoting a weibit here on the
country today from my old mate Paddy Breen, used to be
the dB rep down in Gore. He said, hope's all,
hope all is good with you, Jamie. Can you do
a shout out? To the nineteen ninety five Albon Galbraith
Shield side thirty year anniversary on Wednesday the twentieth, which

(21:12):
is today. We're gathering and gore this weekend for a
few quiet ones. Knowing the ALBN side of nineteen ninety five,
it won't be quiet. Paddy goes on to say there
were a few farmers involved in the side, quite a
few actually, and the late Norm Hewitt. Norm was brought
into help out Southland rugby and nineteen ninety five by

(21:34):
Team Southland. Everyone else is still alive apart from Norm.
Thank you, Paddy. Norm Hewitt. I was charged with looking
after him for a while. It didn't do a very
good job, but he turned things around and was a
great It was great to catch up with them in
later years. He was a regular attender at field Days

(21:54):
and he had really turned himself around from a bit
of a rough beginning. Great bloke in the end, Norm
Hewitt rest in peace. Norm up after the break talking
about rugby. We'll have some sport for you. I think
there's something in there about the Women's Rugby World Cup.
I certainly heard a story at the top of the
air about how they could have sold Twicken them out
I think four times over for the final. Hopefully we're

(22:16):
in that against England. You would assume they would be
the other major contender. Before the end of the air.
Andrew Murray from Fonterra, Good GDT Auction Overnight and doctor
Jaqueline Rowe if it's the economy stupid, Welcome back to

(22:41):
the country. The show's brought to you by Brent very
shortly the latest and rural news and sports news. But
first here's a wonderfully generous promotion from a rural supply company.
This winter, rural vet clinics across New Zealand are stepping
up not just supporting herd health, but helping families in
need through the wonderful food charity meet the need. It's
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(23:05):
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(23:25):
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(23:45):
farm and in the community. A Lanco enriching lives on
farm and now in your communities. It is twenty two
away from one. Michelle, Did I get the terminology rock
good afternoon? By the way that I get the terminology?
Should I have said slash? Or should I have said
forward slash.

Speaker 5 (24:05):
Because you can have a reaid forward slash.

Speaker 2 (24:08):
I apologize to Lanko if I should have said forward slash.
Where is my piece of paper that I just had?
I've lost that. I've got too much paper in front
of me. My mama, my mum. Lots of feedback coming
and I'm going to come back to that. I'm just
going to pre read the sports news. There is a
story in there about the women's Rugby World Cup as well.

(24:29):
Georgia Miller, I'm just she's such a great rugby player.
I don't want to bang on about it, but I'm
really looking forward. But can we beat the what do
they call them themselves? The Red Roses? Don't they the
Red Roses?

Speaker 5 (24:41):
So it could be It's going to be really interesting.
The game I'm most excited about at the moment is
the very first one that England have against the US.
I'm kind of excited about watching that because the US
have got really strong in the last few years. I
don't know if you ever heard of I ownA Mayer.

Speaker 2 (24:53):
Have you heard? Yeah? She's the one of the fastest player,
isn't she.

Speaker 5 (24:56):
Yes, a fun fact, she is the most famous rugg
player on social media, male or female in the world.

Speaker 2 (25:03):
Yeah. Did the Begs make it big at the Rosy
and Bell Clother back in your Bogan days? I still
were now I'm thinking more probably ac DC for you
a lot, was it?

Speaker 6 (25:14):
Oh?

Speaker 5 (25:15):
Definitely thunderstrike all the way.

Speaker 2 (25:17):
Take the girl out of Bell Clothie. You can't take
the Bellcluther out of the girl. Here's Rural News the Countries.

Speaker 1 (25:23):
Rural News with Cod Cadet, New Zealand's leading right on
lawn Bower brand. Visit steel Ford dot co dot NZ
for your local stockist and.

Speaker 5 (25:31):
A little bit of a sports Max rural story. Jamie
New Zealand wall is making a surprise appearance at the
twenty twenty five US Open tennis tournament in New York.
Wall from Kiwi Farms is being used in the felt
of the Wilson tennis ball, served up by the world's
top players at Flushing Meadows. The wall is scourred by
Wallworks and sent to Thailand's Tti Sports, which supplies eighty

(25:51):
percent of the world's premium tennis ball felt. Around three
thousand tons of wall were exported for the tennis ball
felt last year and the US Open runs obviously through
to September seventh, So that's exciting stuff. You can watch
those tennis balls and see.

Speaker 2 (26:05):
That, Yeah they're New Zealand and a strong crossbred wall
as well, isn't it.

Speaker 5 (26:08):
Yeah, which is cool for New Zealand or I didn't
know that about it.

Speaker 2 (26:10):
And they use they use so many tennis balls at
those majors, and the good thing is they only played
six or seven games with them, then they swap them,
but then they go to junior tennis. We just need
a lot more tennis played around the world. There.

Speaker 4 (26:23):
You go.

Speaker 2 (26:23):
That's rural news with Michelle. Here's sport.

Speaker 1 (26:27):
Sport with AFCO. Visit them online at AFCO dot co
dot Nz.

Speaker 2 (26:32):
Spring Box coach Rassi Erasmus has made ten changes to
US starting fifteen that lost in Johannesburg for Sunday's rematch
against the Wallabies at Cape Town. Now, have you been
to South Africa? No?

Speaker 5 (26:44):
I haven't, Somewhere I do want to go.

Speaker 2 (26:45):
It's magnificent. Cape Town's a beautiful city, even though it's
a lot of crime in that there. But it's at
sea level. Johannesburg's like at five thousand feet or something
like that on the high Voalt, and theoretically the Aussie
should go better at sea level. So it's going to
be and interesting game that one. And the Women's Rugby
World Cup in England looks set to dwarf previous attendance records.

(27:09):
Three hundred and seventy five thousand of the four hundred
and seventy thousand available tickets have already been sold and
for that final they could have sold Twicken them out
which holds about eighty thousand people now four times over,
so it will be good. They go the Black Ferns
and Stacey Waker one another favorite here on the country,

(27:29):
of course, an ambassador for beef and lamb New Zealand.
Up next, we're going to have a look at a well.
I think it was a pretty damn fine global Dairy
Trade auction overnight with Fonterra's CFO Andrew Murray, I'm going
bad mastus. Well, it was a good result relatively overnight,

(27:51):
the Global Dairy Trade auction falling zero point three percent.
One of the key numbers whole milk powder up zero
point three percent. To tell us more, Fonterra's chief financial
officer Andrew Murray, and Andrew, the auction did better than
the futures markets, and perhaps the GDT pulse were picking.

Speaker 6 (28:14):
Oh, I certainly did, Jimmy. I think you know, derivatives
were treating it on a little bit coming into this,
but holding with whole milk polder above four thousand a
ton is a really no space for it to lane.

Speaker 2 (28:25):
Yeah. Well, I don't want to throw another commentator in
your face here, Andrew, but the guy I lean on
a wee bit is Mike McIntyre at Jardin, and he said,
reconfirmation of a four thousand US dollar per metric ton
whole milk powder level plus a sub fifty nine cent
Kiwi dollar he's talking about. Farmers can feel more at

(28:47):
ease as we continue to move through what is shaping
up to be a record breaking flush and at this
time of the year, we are seeing significant volumes starting
to come onto the platform.

Speaker 6 (29:00):
Yeah, look, we are definitely starting to see that, you know,
that has a little bit of potential I guess to
soften prices a little and we do see that usually
seasonally at this time of the year. But you know
what you look out there, you know, people have got
relatively low stock levels, so that there is the potential
to sort of offset that. So yeah, I think we're
relatively confident in where it's sitting at the moment, but

(29:23):
obviously there's still plenty of other volativity in the world.

Speaker 2 (29:26):
Absolutely is China back, baby.

Speaker 4 (29:31):
China.

Speaker 6 (29:31):
I mean again, in terms of participation. You know that
they still make up a good thud of the buyers
on GDT, so we're still seeing that come through. Looks like,
you know, we're expecting domestic production in China to be
down a little bit, but demands remaining relatively robust. So
that's feel as though it's in an okay space at
the moment.

Speaker 2 (29:49):
Andrew Murray with us from Fontira Chief Financial Office. Where
did geographically the interests come from other than China? Southeast
Asia has been strong. What about the likes of the
Middle East.

Speaker 6 (30:01):
Yeah, we saw, I mean general, we see about a
thod chainad Sea and a thod with Middle East. We
had a little bit more from Latam in the last
night function. But yeah, they usually sort of foot around
about the same level and nothing that different this time.

Speaker 2 (30:15):
It's early days in our season. We're just really getting
underway CARV and getting you know, well through in parts
of the North Island, beginning in certain parts effectively of
the South Island. Early days. As I said, but what
are the milk volumes looking like?

Speaker 6 (30:30):
Strong? Actually? And I have to see strong, strong, strong
coming through at the moment. We've got good weather and
decent yields coming through as well. So actually feeling pretty
it's a good start to the season.

Speaker 2 (30:40):
Absolutely, Andrew Murray from Fonterra. Thanks for some of your
time onwards and upwards and that ten dollars these are
my words, not yours, is looking pretty good for twenty
five twenty six. Feel free to agree with me, Andrew.

Speaker 6 (30:52):
Well, you've got our forecast out there, so I will
see no more than that.

Speaker 2 (30:56):
Okay, thanks for your time, Yes the life. Thanks Andrew,
Maybe you should be a politician. I think it was
a pretty good result because the GDT pulse auction and
the futures markets were picking. I think a two percent drop.
So we'll take that one up next. Dr Jacquelin oroeth
it's the economy stupid. She's quoting James Carvill from nineteen

(31:21):
ninety two and talking about the economy. Two o'clock this afternoon,
we get the announcement from Christian Hawksby. I think he's
still the acting Reserve Bank governor. I'll come back to
that one. It's going to drop twenty five basis points.
Everyone agrees on that, but what is the rest of
the rhetoric around the announcement going to be keen to

(31:41):
hear that? At two o'clock you'll get the updated story
at the top of the hour with News Talk SEDB
the prity back.

Speaker 7 (31:58):
To the.

Speaker 2 (32:08):
It's the economy stupid. This phrase remains both relevant and
important despite its age. It was coined in nineteen ninety
two by James Carville when he was advising Bill Clinton
and what turned out to be a successful run for
the White House and has appeared at regular intervals because
it has captured the frustrations of the Times repeatedly. So

(32:33):
writes doctor Jaquelin Rowath and her excellent fortnightly column on
the Country dot co dot and said, And what has
James Carville and Bill Clinton got to do with Green
MP Steve Abel.

Speaker 7 (32:47):
The interesting debate he had with Finance Minister Deputy Prime
Minister Nikola Willis on whether farmers keep all the profits
for themselves whilst spreading pollution widely. And Nikola kept trying
to point out that the money that is brought in
from exports goes round the New Zealand economy and filled

(33:10):
your notes figures are like seven point two times every
one million dollars for dairy is seven point two million
of value to our domestic economy. That's huge and eight
point six something like full time equivalents. It's employment and

(33:30):
it's money circulating being shared.

Speaker 2 (33:34):
What are these fiscal halfwords? And that's a good description
for them in the Green So how do they think
we pay for the likes of health care, education, infrastructure?

Speaker 7 (33:46):
So think that we should be paying more taxes so
that we can have better education, health and infrastructure. But
of course if you make more taxes then the other
money that's lubricating they rule economy. And remember that Alton said,
you've got to give us money to the government because
we don't have agriculture.

Speaker 4 (34:07):
I love that.

Speaker 7 (34:09):
So through the taxes that we pay at every stage
with the new money coming into the country, we are
supporting every component of New Zealand. That is we as
in the agricultural sector. But how they think, well, you know,
we know what happened. They borrow more and that's not good.

Speaker 2 (34:28):
Well, Heaven help us if they ever get near the
treasury benches. Now, a number that always not astounds me
but confuses me is that dairy is four percent of
New Zealand's GDP. Yet it is I mean, the primary
sector accounts for what's seventy to eighty percent of our
total export income, dairies half of that. It always surprises

(34:53):
me that that number isn't higher.

Speaker 7 (34:55):
Because people buy such a lot and they're just fascinating.
The whole retailer, which does do quite well in terms
of productivity, is based on the money that comes in
from exports, and so the GDP figure is quite different.
It's probably around just over three percent. You see, it's
less than four. But I agree with you, it doesn't

(35:16):
seem right. But remember that is the dairy milk products.
And what we then see is the magnification through the
community that allows them not to attribute it to dairy
but to attribute it to food sales, or clothes sales,
or car sales, those sorts of things. So that's why

(35:37):
it's much smaller.

Speaker 2 (35:38):
The likes of Steve Able and his mates and the
Greens will bang on about things like agriculture being the
biggest user of water. But you point out because I
think we agriculture does use eighty percent of air water,
but we only as a nation use five percent of
the available water anyhow, So where's the problem.

Speaker 7 (35:57):
I don't see it. But again, it's less than fast.
It sort of depends exactly how you count it, but
certainly the amount that's used. To Remember, most irrigation water
eventually makes its way back into the system, but we've
used it first, and by using it, that's where we
create our export value. Because most countries are water poor,

(36:18):
we are not, and our efficient irrigation systems allow us
to produce food effectively and then export it for value.
So horticulture and dairy in particular are the users of water,
a tiny, tiny component of that which we have. And
yet I'm for better water storage, proper infrastructure, better water

(36:42):
storage that is then distributed in a precise way. Precision
technologies has come a long way since the nineteen forties.

Speaker 2 (36:50):
Check well, and you're getting me very excited talking about
water storage. You know it's a hot spot for me.
I love a good damn hey, thank you very much
for your time always. This is an excellent column. You
can read it on the country dot co dot nz.

Speaker 7 (37:05):
Chairs Okay, thanks Jamie, thank.

Speaker 2 (37:08):
You, Jacqueline. It is four away from one. Some of
your feedback Trump's bound to get it right sometimes are
broken clocks right twice a day? Well, they adduced to
the man. If he can broke a deal with Russia Ukraine,
good on him. My old mate Graham Smith, former Mosgow
Bogan these days, lives with all the rich people in

(37:29):
Mount Monganui, says, finally you've moved on from Moscow being
the Bogan capital to making it Belcluther, No, I didn't.
I just joke with Michelle Smithy m I was born
and went to school and Gore. Gore gets a bogan rap.
It's a great town. M oh shout out and Smith.
He says, shout out to your mate Piper for his birthday. Yes,

(37:52):
Lee Piper. It's gone to the dark side with another company,
but he along with Grantners, but very responsible for getting
the show up and running in Gore in nineteen ninety four.
We'll catch you back tomorrow. Take care.

Speaker 1 (38:16):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie Mgue thanks to Brent starkest of the
leading agriculture brands
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