August 26, 2025 • 38 mins
Jamie Mackay talks to Christopher Luxon, Jane Smith, Stefan Vogel, and Rick Ladd.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay thanks to Brent, the starkest of
the leading agriculture brands.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Good a good afternoon, New Zealand. I'm Jamie McKay. This
is the Country and it's brought to you by Brandt.
One of my favorite people at Brant is Rick Ladd.
You heard about Tom Selleck at the top of the hour,
No doubt if you are listening to news talks, he'd
be un news bulletin. Rick Ladd sort of sounds like
a name from the seventies, could have been out of
(00:53):
Magnum p I. He's on a wee bit later in
the show from Taranaki. We're going to kick it off
though with the Prime Minister. Taranaki of course a wonderful
dairying province along with Waikato, Canterbury, Southland, the big dairy provinces,
who have I forgotten some of the dairy farms in
the Bay are plenty of going into kiwi fruit. The
(01:15):
Prime Minister kick it off positive effects Fonterra's three point
two billion dollar sugar hit could have on the rural
economy and did he overstep the mark chewing the air
of the Reserve Bank. I say good on them because
interest rates are heading down and they need to go
down further. It was a picture perfect photo shoot fit
for the Women's Weekly. Two high profile rural personalities arm
(01:39):
and arm on a North Otago farm. We're going to
talk to one of them on today's show, Stephan Vogel
Outs of Australia RABO Research GM for Australia and New Zealand,
get his thoughts on where interest and exchange rates are going.
So if you've got a big mortgage out there at
the moment and a lot of you farmers do what
(02:00):
what should you do if you're rolling off a fixed
straight now? Do you ride the floating rate down or
do you take some short term fixed action and try
and pick the bottom of the market. And as I said,
Rick lad love that name out of brand. It's all
on the Country and it's all brought to you by
I was gonna say Rabobank, that's Saturday Morning show.
Speaker 3 (02:23):
Let's try Brandts.
Speaker 2 (02:43):
Wednesdays on the Country. The PM kicks off the show
Christopher Luxon, do you agree with your mentor John Key
that where Fonterra goes New Zealand goes and how much
of a boost will the three point two billion dollar
capital return from Fonterra to its far I'm as shareholders
be for the new Zealand economy.
Speaker 4 (03:02):
Good afternoon, well, good afternoon, Jam, You're good to be
with you as always. Look, there's no doubt about it.
I just think the last week have been really good
news for agriculture. Again, you've got the three point two
billion out of the three point eight billion sale coming
straight back and being returned to sholder farmers. That's going
to be a massive boost. You know, it's going to
be a really significant amount of money. And more importantly,
it is the right strategy for Fonterra to be pushing
(03:24):
out on the business to business side of things, or
the food service sides of things where there's better margins
and that's what's been helping. You had another fifteen cent
rise i think to the global dairy price, and then
we had a twenty five basic point interest rate cut
and also the Reserve Bank coming out with proposals based
off our FEC Primary Industries Selectmmittee inquiry saying look they're
going to look at risk adjustment for key sectors, meaning agriculture,
(03:47):
but also you know, potentially lighting those capital rule requirements
on banks which actually will put down with pressure interest
rates again, So you know, I think that's being I
think all of that is really good. And certainly if
you're in the South Island primary industy whose rural you're
feeling some effects of growth, which is excellent. But if
you're sitting in Auckland, it's still very tough.
Speaker 2 (04:06):
No one likes the corrector. It's actually up to four
point two billion dollars. Now we've got the bigger deal
across the line.
Speaker 4 (04:13):
Yes, of course he's at another four undred million on top.
Speaker 2 (04:15):
Yes, good news, look well done you and it's about time.
But did you overstep the mark talking about the Reserve Bank?
Did you get into Christian Hawksby's air Did you chew
it big time?
Speaker 5 (04:29):
No?
Speaker 4 (04:29):
Look, I've seen all the communes about it. But the
thing is, say up front, and I said in that
interview with Mike Hosking as well, was that respect the
independents of the Reserve Bank. I don't direct them on
monetary policy, but we do have a very formal meeting
every couple of months with the Reserve Bank Governor, the
Minister of Finance and myself, and it's an opportunity, frankly,
(04:49):
for us to each exchange our review, you know, our
prospectives and what we're in, our views on the economy
and what we think we're seeing. They're always pretty engaging
compisations that occasionally pretty bus but they're pretty They're very
useful exchanges. And I understand my role, which is I'm
here to drive fiscal policy.
Speaker 6 (05:07):
They are there to.
Speaker 4 (05:07):
Drive monetary policy. We need the two working in sync,
which has happened you know, the time of my government.
We can have lots of Yeah, they also have good
access to data. They talk to a bunch of different stakeholders.
I'm essentially one of those stakeholders and I find them engaging,
useful conversations. But I don't direct them to tell or
tell them what to do. I can't do that under law.
(05:28):
And also, frankly, our governors know that, and they are
pretty independent and they wouldn't do so under any prime
minister doing that in New Zealand past or present or future.
Speaker 2 (05:38):
Reserve banks a bit of a shambles.
Speaker 7 (05:39):
Really.
Speaker 2 (05:40):
I'm looking at the doubling the Auckland office space and
this is despite cutting a fifth of its staff a
fourteen point five million dollar fit out. I mean, they're
basically a whole lot of nerds setting they could sit
in a basement somewhere and do the same job.
Speaker 4 (05:56):
Yeah, that was utterly unacceptable because I think UK we
would find that spending on office space for two hundred
staff for us on the two hundred staff acceptable at all.
But basically that is sort of a little bit of
the problem that I've inherited, right, that is a legacy
of the previous governments. They have five year funding agreements
between the government and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand
and that presided over a massive increase in the bank's
(06:17):
funding but also massive increase in staff numbers. And the
unfortunate Minister of Finance doesn't personally approve the bank's expenditure.
That's the job of the governor and also the Reserve
Bank Board. You might remember a month ago we have
a new five year funding agreement that we have.
Speaker 5 (06:32):
Negotiated with the board that has lowered.
Speaker 4 (06:34):
Expenses by twenty five percent and it's half the capital
budget that the Reserve Bank wanted. So we now expect
the bank, frankly to explore options to generate revenue from
that space in Auckland and says to sublease or do
other things than Soviet I'm.
Speaker 2 (06:49):
Reading from the New Zealand Herald. Trade Minister Todd McLay
confirms New Zealand's concerns over US tariffs fall on the affairs.
Was it a waste of an affair sending him to Washington?
Speaker 4 (07:02):
No, absolutely not. I mean you've got to have daily,
ongoing relationships with trade ministers all around the world, and
you know, really what happened there was that he was
invited by his counterpart, Genison Greere. He gets on very
well with He has a good personal relationship as well
as professional one, and that was really an ongoing relationship
and around you know, and dialogue, which is really important.
(07:23):
So yes, we can disagree on tariffs, and we do.
We know the presence very fixed on his views and
that's unlikely to change. But even so there are still
things like non tariff trade barriers to discuss, and particular
around dairy and other things that you know are just
normal everyday business that you know Todd has done a
good job on. I think in the first year, just
to give you a feel for I think Todd got
rid of almost seven hundred million dollars worth of non
(07:45):
tariff barriers across our different trading relationships. So you know
that's important that we just haven't ongoing dialog. We can
agree to disagree on the tariff situation and we'll continue
to make our position clear on that, but also we've
got to crack on and actually work through other trade
issues as well, and that's important that those relationships are
in place.
Speaker 2 (08:03):
Growth rates for the New Zealand economy two point four
percent this year, three point one percent next year. What's
an acceptable growth rate?
Speaker 4 (08:12):
Well, I mean, essentially the forecast is still on track
for what we took what we've talked about back at
the budget, which is two point seven percent average over
that each of the four years in the plan ahead,
and that creates about two hundred and forty thousand extra
job So, you know, the story, Jamie's quite interesting because
we got some growth in quarter four last year before Christmas.
(08:33):
We got really quite good growth in the first January
February March this year. Then we had Independence Day in April,
and it's not so much the bipartisan trade between New
Zealand and the US it's impacted because it's still up
six or seven percent, But what it actually is is
just the uncertainty, the chaos at that causes and the
loss of confidence and sentiment, and we certainly felt that
(08:53):
through that three month period April May June, so I
suspect the economy came back a bit. But we're now
growing the economy again this and as we go onto
the last quarter of the year, which will be October
November December, we're expecting strong in good growth there as well.
So you know, it has been two speed. We'real South
Island primary industry is great, growing strongly. Auckland Wellington more challenge,
(09:15):
but we've got manufacturing something to come on file, thanks
I think to the investment boost. We've got a heap
of infrastructure projects, which of course drides lots of activity
for tradees and others involved in those projects. So you know,
I think the outlook is still really is very promising.
And you know, honestly, I know it's been a very
difficult and tough time as we've dealt with the recession,
dealt with the COVID hangover, dealt with international tariffs. But
(09:37):
actually New Zealand I think is incredibly well positioned for
the future.
Speaker 2 (09:40):
What are you hearing finally about Stuart Nash standing for
New Zealand first, Well, Winneston, will Winston stand for it?
Will Shane be jealous?
Speaker 6 (09:50):
Well?
Speaker 4 (09:50):
They sound like perfectly good questions to put the winter
when your next talk to them. But I've just focused
on my own party people even and focusing on the
New Zealand people are being Prome Minister.
Speaker 2 (10:02):
Well, I'm glad you said you're not focused on getting
the barnacles off the boat, because we've banned that on
this show.
Speaker 4 (10:09):
I got to bring you a new cliche, don't know.
I think you need a new one.
Speaker 2 (10:11):
I think and you need a new one each week. Look,
thank you very much for your time. Really appreciate it.
Speaker 6 (10:16):
Great Jamie, take care.
Speaker 2 (10:18):
The Prime Minister. Seventeen after twelve you are with the country.
Apparently the musical theme today, according to Michelle's music from
Bogan Weddings First Dance Up, this is a great song
from a great band Aerosmith, from a great movie Armageddon.
Almost cried myself and Bruce Willis decided to stay on
(10:42):
the asteroid and blow it up to save the world,
sacrificed himself for liv Tyler and who is the other guy?
Ben affleck good movie. I see stuffs and this is
sad and tragic is reporting the death of former Highlander
(11:02):
and Tasman Marco captain Shane Christie, thirty nine years of age.
We'll see if we can confirm that one for you.
He had some real concussion issues and it's a real
issue and rugby and contact sport at the moment, isn't it.
See the game's changed a lot since I played in
(11:23):
the eighties and early nineties. Mind duets to hide it
fall back and didn't get too involved in the rough
and tumble. But the hits are so much bigger. It's
so much tougher are these days to play rugby than
it perhaps was twenty or thirty or forty years ago.
Sad times. In sympathies to the Christie family. Up next,
we are heading to north Otago. I got sent a picture,
(11:48):
in fact, a picture perfect photo of too high profile
rural personalities arm in arm on a north Otago farm.
That's up next on the country.
Speaker 3 (12:03):
Of Mormon.
Speaker 2 (12:14):
Sister.
Speaker 1 (12:14):
Who's the only one.
Speaker 2 (12:19):
Her little sister, who's your super little sister, who's the
one you one little sister?
Speaker 1 (12:27):
Shotgun?
Speaker 2 (12:29):
Last, we love your feedback here on the country, especially
when you send us a nice farming pack. I got
one a couple of days ago from our next guest.
It looked like something from the pages of Woman's Weekly
or the Woman's Weekly. Man and woman arm and arms
standing on the farm. Quite beautiful and picturesque. Let's welcome
(12:51):
the female part of the component onto the show. Jane Smith,
North Otago farmer and a former owner of the Balance Farm.
Environment towards the Onlyblemers And the photo. Jane, it's not
your Habby Blair. It's Damian O'Connor. Have you two kissed
and made up?
Speaker 7 (13:07):
Good afternoon, Jamie. Yeah, it was quite the photo, wasn't it.
Set's taken on Damien's spine. And who would have thought, Jamie,
who would have thought this, you know, six or twelve
months ago, that I'd be welcoming Jamien into onto the farm,
you know, scones in hand and for a cup of tea.
But look, you know, I often think time spent was
those that may have opposing views is a lot more
(13:28):
valuable than an agreement session. And I've matured a lot
of my political allegiances, I guess, and I care not
for the color of the political rosette that you wear.
But for the best outcomes for our country and our countryside, Jamie.
And this was this was part of it. And Damien
was keen to you know, he has to pick a
come up and I said bare and I said yes.
And Blair was here as a mediator, but wasn't needed
at all, actually, And I do like about one thing
(13:50):
I really like about Damien is if he disagrees with you,
he'll tell you straight up, and because there's nothing worse
than sort of a vanilla sort of vanilla tones and
sort of simply appeasing you because it's the easiest thing
to do. And what if Muhammed Gardani say, honest disagreement
is often a sign of good progress, Jamie. And you
know that That's where Jamie and I've got to Yeah.
Speaker 2 (14:10):
Does he realize that you, in the past and on
the show have called him an inverted Commas wormy weather.
Speaker 6 (14:17):
Yeah, well it's been well out in the open, Jamie.
Speaker 7 (14:19):
He didn't actually ask me to apologize for that, and
you know at that time, and I was pretty straight
up with him. You know, between twenty seventeen and twenty
twenty three, we had a constant barrage of submissions that
we had to put in. You know, business owners around
the country, whether you're farming or manufacturing, or mining or fisheries,
were hunted down by the labor of Green's government and framed,
you know, without trials, So you know, hundreds of hours
(14:40):
will put into submissions. And one thing I did talk
about was, you know, let's have the submission process before regulation,
not afterwards, and give those that are most affected by
it involved up front that it's the most efficient and
effective way. And you know everybody wants, including textpayers, because
it saves the hell of.
Speaker 6 (14:57):
A lot of money too. So you know, we really
we put that, you know, draw a.
Speaker 7 (15:02):
Line under that, I guess, and hopefully onwards and upwards.
And I know it's really easy when you're in the
opposition to be you know, quite congenial. But we had
a lot of discussions around you know, things like pasture
raised the fact that you know, we're not really pushing
that far enough. G three has never been pushed beyond
sort of a background noise, and you know, these are
(15:22):
key tenets of our unique pasture proposition in New Zealands.
And we've jumped straight to the biotech lab and he was.
Speaker 6 (15:28):
Very He absolutely agrees with that.
Speaker 7 (15:30):
So you know, that's something I want to see Damien
champion champion over the next couple of years, and as
well as you know the holes in the moment at
the moment in the carbon forestry scenario, and I know
the Windham Warrior Dean Rabbit has been quite vocal on
this in the last couple of days. But you know
that that class seven and eighth land, I'm still very
concerned about that. That is, you know, literally the breeding
(15:52):
ground for our our youth and our cows that produce
the carbs and the lambs that are getting such great
prices around the world at the moment, and also the
guardians of the two point six million hectares of native biodiversity,
And so they seem to still think that that's sort
of an expendable.
Speaker 6 (16:09):
Figure on a spreadsheet.
Speaker 7 (16:11):
These are real communities and those you know, there really
needs to be a tightening down of that because it's
still happening in those classes of land.
Speaker 6 (16:17):
Jamie.
Speaker 2 (16:17):
So in your Woman's Weekly photo shoot with Damian O'Connor
on the North Otago farm, were you cuddling up to
him sort of to get us political smarts? Now that
you are kicking off your own political career, Jane Smith.
You're standing for the position of South Island Director for Ravenstown,
which is interesting because when I first met you many
many years ago down on Southland, you were working for
(16:39):
Ravenstown as a field rep.
Speaker 7 (16:41):
Yeah, that's right, Jamie, and I've been sort of approached
by a number of farmers over the past few years
to stand and I just probably had enough that I
was juggling at the time. But I think I'm particularly
interested in the fertilizer sector at the moment because over
the next you know, two to two to five to
ten years, is it's going to be a really challenging
I guess time for the fertilizer sector and the pastoral
(17:02):
and arable sector as well, and horticulture. And I guess
I just see that possibly I've got some strengths that
I could put around the table, and it actually that's
as a company that I'm really passionate about, and I
guess I do have a forthright manner around the board table.
I think Blear describes me yesterday as a cross between
Margaret Thatcher and Angela Merkele. I hope he was meeting
(17:22):
my boardroom demeanor, not my appearance, Jamie. He might have
need and I might have lost both actually, but you know,
I take no prisons. But those that have worked around
with me around the table would actually say I am
forthright but collaborative.
Speaker 6 (17:33):
Well I hope they would.
Speaker 7 (17:34):
But you know, the combination of my Scottish and German
genes mean I'm absolutely focused on efficiency and effectiveness and
I think our fertilizer seek to absolutely needs it at
the moment, Jamie. So again, I just encourage people to vote,
not necessarily for me. I'm not everybody's cup of tea,
but you know, voting and using that right to vote,
because I think generally the voter turn out, especially when
(17:55):
returns are pretty good in the sector, tend to be
pretty low. And actually we need to be really super
sharp on the way forward in the sector, and you
know I want to be part of that.
Speaker 2 (18:04):
Jenney, Okay, fair enough for the Ravensdown directorship the North Island,
Jacqueline Rawith Rowath elected unopposed. There another regular on the show,
and you're up against a couple of pretty high profile
women and farming or agri business Nikky Hislop and Rebecca Cogan,
both with very good cvs. Got to give them a
mention here, Jane or us. I'll have to send you
(18:25):
a bill for this.
Speaker 7 (18:26):
Oh absolutely, Jamien. Look, their cvs are very sharp and
well beyond mind.
Speaker 6 (18:30):
And I know that.
Speaker 7 (18:31):
I know when we had our interviews to sort of
to they assess your governance suitability, I was you know
that They now, yeah, I was pretty pretty poorly scored
because I actually just told them what I thought in
terms of a governance and a way forward. And I
haven't spent my last few years sitting in Institute of
Directors courses or walking from boardroom to boardroom, but I
(18:51):
think I have enough governance experience both locally globally with
a global farmer around table and in Wellington. And also
I'm still a hands on farmer, and there's something that
gives you a really crystal clear vision on everything, you know,
if you've got your head down crutching lands or on
the tractor or out milking cows. And I think again,
it's that balance between farmer directors and full time directors
(19:14):
that we need in our sector. And again, I pull
no punches, and I just think that the sector needs
someone like that at the moment. Jamie but yeah, absolutely
the right person for the job, and if it's not me,
that's also an equally good outcome.
Speaker 2 (19:26):
This is starting to sound like an election campaign ad here, Jane,
let me just finish with happenings in the meat industry
at the moment. I know that you're not an Alliance
Group supplier, but what do you make of what's happening
read the Dawn meats? What are they going to spend
two hundred and fifty million dollars? Look at my numbers
to get what is it? Sixty five percent of the
Alliance Group And I know there's moves a foot from
(19:48):
some of the biggest shareholders in Alliance to try and
revisit this. They want to keep control of one hundred
percent farmer co op. Is that practical these days for
the meat industry?
Speaker 7 (20:00):
It's interesting Jomy and I share their diss of everybody's
disappointment and the value offered to that stake and Alliance
and it certainly doesn't know none of us actually solves
any of our structural issues that we have in our sector.
And it seems to be a very much alike it
or lumpet, So there's no plan B or see and
it would have been great.
Speaker 6 (20:15):
To see sort of a bit of a bit.
Speaker 7 (20:17):
More dynamic options in there, and it feels like that,
you know, they are getting painted into a corner. That's said,
It's also sounds like Dawn makes it a very highly successful,
very progressive company.
Speaker 6 (20:29):
I've heard that from.
Speaker 7 (20:31):
My Irish farming friends. And you know, they might give
a really fresh perspective into the into the sector. And
they're obviously after that New Zealand providence and that all
year round supply and that food security which is obviously
what everybody wants globally at the moment.
Speaker 6 (20:45):
So whether there's a balance here in terms of.
Speaker 7 (20:48):
In terms of percentage of takeover and and you know,
there's good that that shoeholders are really getting involved there.
But I guess it like all co ops and Alliance
and our fertilizer company are no different. We've got to
really look at what does a co op mean? And
that's you know, it feels like we need to go
back to first principles because we tend to hang on
to that when instead of actually just unpacking it and
(21:08):
thinking what does it mean? And you talk to a
lot of sub thirty year old farmers out there at
the moment, and they say they just want a really
dynamic company that pays a good price and they can
get you know, Surety of Kurl et cetera like that,
and they're doing some great things globally. So it's a
balanced Jamie, isn't it. So it'll be really interesting over
the next few months. And again I think it's worth
fighting for, but it's also worth having that injection into
(21:32):
the seat to Jamie.
Speaker 2 (21:33):
Okay, Jane Smith, thanks for your time. Good luck in
the Ravens Down Director race, and good luck to all
the candidates. Can we post your photo are your Woman's
weekly photo shoot with Damien on their website?
Speaker 7 (21:43):
You might have a haftars Damien. It was taken on
his phone, Jamie and he yeah, I don't know whether.
Speaker 2 (21:48):
Hell he has public property. And well done to Blair.
A cross between Maggie that's or and Angela Merkele maybe
not a mile away.
Speaker 3 (21:55):
Thanks Jane, good one, so you.
Speaker 2 (21:57):
Good on you, Jane. It is twenty eight away from one.
You're with the country brought to you by Brand. Lots
of feedback coming and we'll get to that up next.
Rural News and sports News. We'll update the sad passing
of Shane Christy.
Speaker 6 (22:10):
Start again, then.
Speaker 2 (22:16):
Welcome back to the country. The show's brought to you
by Brandt so very shortly the latest in the rural
news and sports news. But how good is this? The
Canterbury Show is back baby, Well that's my take on it. Anyhow,
as the Royal amp Show of New Zealand for twenty
twenty five, and they'd love to see your business there
Marked on the rural calendars across the nation. The Royal
(22:38):
amp Show of New Zealand, hosted by the Canterbury Amp Show,
is the largest of its kind in the country, representing
the pinnacle of agricultural achievement and now with Royal status,
it stands as the premiere showcase of excellence in New
Zealand's rural sector. Held over three action pack days, the
show features NonStop entertainment from the country's largest questrian competition
(23:01):
to thrilling sharing events and international woodshopping, dog trials, lawnmower racing,
live music and over four hundred trade sites for the
seventy thousand plus strong attendees to check out. Some exciting
new initiatives for twenty twenty five include a Farmer's Day
on Thursday with more to be announced. The Royal Amp
Show of New Zealand, hosted by the Canterbury Amp Association
(23:24):
at the Canterbury Agricultural Park, is on November thirteen to fifteen,
twenty twenty five, with sites from just five hundred dollars
for three days and applications now eighty percent booked. Make
sure you secure your site before they're all gone. Visit
the Show dot co dot nz for more info. Bang
(23:44):
on twenty five Away from One. He's Michelle Watt with
the latest and rural news.
Speaker 1 (23:50):
The country's world news with Cod Cadet, New Zealand's leading
right on Lawnbower brand. Visit steel Ford dot co dot
nz for your locals.
Speaker 8 (23:59):
Doggust and two weather systems are forecast to sweep across
New Zealand, bringing rain and wind before Spring's arrival. Of course,
spring officially on Monday. Met Service is issued a heavy
rain watch for north of Gisbon City until midnight tonight,
and a strong wind watch is already in place for
eastern areas of Northland and Great Barrier Island at or
three pm, with gus forecast throught to one hundred kilometers
(24:20):
an hour in some areas. The bottom half of the
North Island and much of the South Island will have
clear skies, but the Met Services issued a heavy rain
warning and strong wind watches for Fiordland and Otago from
late Thursday evening until about midday Friday, so make sure
you keep up with those weather updates. And his Jane was.
Speaker 1 (24:36):
Sport sport with AFCO Kiwi to the bone since nineteen
oh four.
Speaker 2 (24:41):
Yes, as we reported a week bit earlier earlier, excuse
me for my Mari all Black Shane Christy has died.
The ex Tasman on Highlanders flanker was just thirty nine
years of age. Tasman CEO Steve Mitchell has confirmed his passing.
A Rugby World Cup organizers Women's Rugby World Cup organizers
(25:02):
and sister call to expand the women's teams was right
despite a bevy of mismatches to open the tournament in England.
Sally Horricks, the governing body's head of the women's game,
says competition is growing and all Black swing Caleb Clark
has been cleared to return from injury for Auckland against
Wellington in Round five NPC action at Porua on Sunday.
(25:27):
Will they start him at Eden Park the following Saturday.
I say give Leroy Carter a go. I'm less consistent
on that talking about women's Rugby World Cup. Listen out
for Stacy Waker and your chance to win the Rugby
Ready meatpack before the end of the hour. Always enjoy
(25:57):
catching up with this man on the country because he's
a smart man. And you don't get to be the
RABO Research GM for Australia and New Zealand no less
unless you are quite a smart plug. Stefan Vogel joins
us out of oz Stephan, I want to start with
the exchange rate and interest rates. Of course here in
New Zealand last week we had the Reserve Bank dropping
(26:19):
the OCR to three percent. Interestingly, they signaled another two
drops to get it down to two and a half percent.
What are you guys at Rabobanks saying.
Speaker 9 (26:31):
Look, you already summarized it nicely and if you look
at the wording that we have seen in coming out
of the meetings there, it actually signaled to the market
that it wasn't a matter of Shelby cut or Shelby
not cut, but it was a matter of Shelby cut
twenty five or fifty. And when do we do the
next one. So the market obviously is already pricing in
(26:52):
another twenty five basis points towards the end of this
year that will be cut and another twenty five or
so to be cut in the first half of next year.
And that's all good news for the consumers over in
New Zealand, I think. So as a German, I'm trying
to be positive and today I think will be a
call of a lot of good news for those who
(27:12):
look at the input cost site.
Speaker 2 (27:13):
Are you telling me that Germans aren't positive? I know
you're not generally humorous, Stefan, but you ah tough on you.
Speaker 9 (27:21):
I don't want to be general, but I can only
talk about myself. So I'm trying to be positive these days.
So obviously in a world where we have to find
through tougher trading times, I think for our businesses there
is a lot good news also still on the horizon.
So I said, the interest rate is one and if
you look at the impact this has because obviously not
(27:42):
only here in New Zealand, a lot has happened in
the meetings there of the Central Bank. But if you
look into the US, obviously mister Trump is trying to
fire the governor Cook and she's refusing to leave office,
and so we have a battle there ongoing. That's obviously
something that impacts the exchange rate quite a bit because
(28:05):
for US in Australia and New Zealand, the US dollar
is just a very important currency. So if we're looking
at where we've been, we've been actually rather weak following
the cuts we had in New Zealand here with a
currency and now with a turmoil in the US. It's
balancing slightly higher, but overall we're still well below sixty
cents to the US dollar, and that's I think good
(28:27):
for the export market because it just brings a little
bit more extra New Zealand dollars into our pockets when
we sell our products in the global market in the
US dollars.
Speaker 2 (28:36):
Absolutely fifty eight and a half when I had a
look this morning at might have updated since then, but
that's a very export friendly exchange right for US.
Speaker 9 (28:46):
Absolutely, it helps us there. It may make our imports
a little bit more expensive, but that level, I think
is a good and healthy one. But we can't just
think that, oh, it's going to stay there. We have
seen that the exchange rate is what we call a
shock absorb in these times, whenever there's a hit to
the economy, whenever there's a big Trump blow against China
(29:07):
against any other country, we see the exchange rate taking
the shock a little bit and absorbing it and moving
quite a bit. So we're still expecting that there could
be a turnaround of that interest rates, sorry of that FX,
and we may move towards the sixty level brother soon again,
but there is quite a bit of a volatility in
(29:27):
the market going forward. And for now, as you said,
good for the exporters, Well, I'm sure.
Speaker 2 (29:32):
We could live with the sixty USC in exchange right,
sort of pick you up on a comment you made
away bit earlier about the perhaps two more drops in
the OCA. Commentators are here are saying those two right
drops would or could happen before Christmas. You're calling one
between now on the end of the year and one
on the new year.
Speaker 9 (29:52):
Yeah, so I'm referring to what I see in the
market and the forward curve of the swaps basically, So
that's where we are. But you're right, that could be
even a of either fifty busis points this year or
two cuts of twenty five. So with the latest comments,
I think everybody gets a gets a little bit more
(30:12):
excited about a further drop in the interest rate in
New Zealand.
Speaker 2 (30:17):
Stephan Vogel with this Rabo research GM for Australia and
New Zealand. If you're sitting out there on your farm
and you've got a big mortgage to Rabobank of course Stefan,
and it's about to come off a fixed st rate,
what do you do at the moment? Do you just
roll on floating, do you ride the floating train down?
Or do you take some short action I don't know
(30:37):
six or twelve months.
Speaker 9 (30:39):
Look, I don't want to give anybody an advice without
knowing their circumstances. But overall, I think for many of
us who have a mortgage, it is a good thing
if the interest rates comes down. And the question is
what does it do to your business if we would
soar in these interest rates? So right now the market
doesn't call it, but the market has been wrong in
(31:00):
the past, and that's kind of where I think the
risk assessment of everybody needs to kick in and we
need to think, well, are we happy if we lock
in something at this rate or do we want to
think it may drop further? But we've seen it also
on the way up. A lot of people were called
are caught a little bit off guard by the point
in time that the writing was on the wall that
(31:22):
we see interest rates increasing. When we went into that
up cycle, it was already too late to log in rates.
So that I think everybody needs to take their own
decisions about what is good for their farm and what
is not good for their farm, to make sure that
we cover some other risks, because at the end of
the day, it's not only that part. It's also the
cost on farm that we need to monitor. Obviously, fertilizers
(31:45):
are still expensive. Fuel is volatile in these days as well.
When we look at the geopolitics and feed grain is
maybe one of those that brings us a little bit
of good news. So with that it's going to be
price wise, probably a struggle for these who grow it,
but it will be good times for those who need
to buy some feed train and for New Zealand. Obviously
(32:06):
you're importing quite a bit of grain also from Australia.
We had some very good rains in the southern part
of the country. Here South Australia, which was dry, had
some good rains. We had some rains in Victoria, Western Australia.
Many parts had good rains you as well, So with
that we're actually setting us up for a pretty good crop.
Not a record crop for sure, not but it looks
(32:28):
much better as we speak now than if we would
have had the same call four weeks ago before those rains.
Speaker 2 (32:35):
Stephan Vogel Rabobank out of Australia. Thanks for your tom
Always good to catch up. Appreciate it. And you know
I was only joking about Germans not having a sense
of humor.
Speaker 9 (32:44):
So later I know that we can always joke about today.
Thank you, go on you Stephan.
Speaker 2 (32:49):
Yeah, just continuing on from that story about the death
of for More all Black for Ma Mari all Black
and Highland A Shan Christie is being reported as a
suspected suicide unfortunately, follows Billy giton Sad Times for Tasman
and Joey Wheeler. If you are listening, fair for your mate,
because I know they were both very good friends of yours.
(33:10):
Up next, Rick Lad, we head to the Taranaki. I
thought it was going to be Gisbon two days in
a row here on the country, of course. Sandra Matthews
from Rural Women and zed gisbine sheep and beef farmer
on the show yesterday. This bloke's normally domiciled there, but
(33:31):
today we find him in Stratford, Taranaki, where, no doubt,
where I know the carving is in full swing. His
name is Rick lad He's the director of sales for
New Zealand for our wonderful sponsors Brand and Rick, what
do you make of this news? And I bet you
all you guys in the rural supply industry, especially tractor
selling tractors and farm machinery, like you guys do make
(33:54):
of the announcement from Fonterra last week that three point
two billion dollars will go back to Fonterra farmer shareholders.
I reckon there's a bit of pent up capital expenditure,
not only on farm machinery but also on capital, fertilizer
and all sorts of stuff on farm. It's got to
be good for provincial New Zealand.
Speaker 10 (34:14):
Yeah, good afternoon, Jamie hastening listeners.
Speaker 9 (34:16):
Yeah, no, it is good, mate.
Speaker 10 (34:18):
And I think obviously been a co op mate.
Speaker 5 (34:19):
It's going to go to get voted in, But I
think it's fairly obvious where they're going to go. So yep,
dead right, it's been today. It's been good on a
calendar year for us in terms of the industry, and
I think for next year, for twenty twenty six, only
good things are going to come from this mate. It's
great to see the dear industry getting those written, the
(34:41):
rewards made of what's been a pretty tough couple of.
Speaker 6 (34:43):
Years for them.
Speaker 2 (34:44):
Absolutely, And you're in heartland dairying country at the moment
in Taranaki. What's it looking like?
Speaker 5 (34:50):
It's looking good, mate, So yeah, Carvin's well underweight. Although
it's been a bit cold of late. It's beautiful over
here today. It's sun to shine in the mountains out
and yeah, grasp Oath is a way so yeah, everything's
looking looks looking positive over here in Banaki.
Speaker 2 (35:04):
Now talking about Gisbone, I'm going there on October the seventeenth.
We're going to broadcast the show from the Gisbone or
is it the Poverty Bay? A MP show, best little
amp show in the country from the branch side. Have
you got the red carpet ready for me?
Speaker 5 (35:17):
Rick, We'll be sure to Jamie.
Speaker 10 (35:21):
Yeah, Hey, like.
Speaker 5 (35:22):
Neville and Dumpler are doing a Buddy Thompson doing a
good job there, mate, and yeah, we're looking forward to
having you along.
Speaker 10 (35:29):
The AMP show has been it's.
Speaker 5 (35:31):
Been bloody good to us over the years in Gisbon
in this capacity obviously going in sales. It's the country
comes to town and the town comes to the country, mate.
So it's a hell of a good show. And you're right,
it is one of the best MPs, the best AMP
show around the country.
Speaker 2 (35:47):
Well, some people in Wannaica might disagree, mind you. I
think yours is a true AMP that's a bit more
lifestyle of the one one. And of course, and we
can't forget the Canterbury A and P Show, which is
really making a comeback. Talked about some of this money
that's available for capital expenditure, you want to get your
hands on some of it. What deals have you got
for the farmers at the moment, because at Field Days
(36:09):
you had a deal on what you would call a
base John Dare tractor. I think about ninety five horse
power chuck a loader on that. It'll do all the
handy jobs around the farm.
Speaker 10 (36:20):
Yeah, well we've continued that momentum from the Field Days, Jamie.
The Field Days by far has been I think we
alluded to last time we spoke. It's by far the
most boyant that well I've seen definitely going in this capacity.
Speaker 5 (36:31):
So we've continued that momentum with that. The five oh
ninety five them, the little half framed tractor with the
lift capacity of a six thousand and the power cord transmission.
That's been bloody good to us, so we've decided to
continue that and keep.
Speaker 6 (36:46):
Rolling with it.
Speaker 9 (36:47):
So by mens, come see us, mate, and.
Speaker 5 (36:49):
To your local John Dy dealer and we'll see what
we can do.
Speaker 6 (36:52):
And we've also.
Speaker 5 (36:53):
Complimented that as well with the point ninety five percent
finance over five years.
Speaker 10 (36:58):
And an extended warranty.
Speaker 6 (36:59):
So we've con to me there too.
Speaker 5 (37:00):
And as well as that, we've got the higher horsepower
too for the contractor the farmers that report that a
little bit more grunt to get the job done. We've
got one hundred and ninety five horsepower tractors who've got
some aged units, aged new and stuff that we want
to get rid of to bring the new sixteen series in.
So come see us and see what we can do.
Speaker 2 (37:16):
All right, the ninety five horsepower based tractor, you've got
the one hundred and ninety five horses for the guys
who want a bit more grunt for some of that
agricultural work. Rick lad enjoy the rest of your day
in Stratford and the Taranak. We'll catch you in Gisbon
mid October.
Speaker 10 (37:32):
Looking forward to Jamie. Good on your mate.
Speaker 7 (37:33):
Thanks Hi, Stacy Walker here, take scrums of five zero
zero in nine.
Speaker 5 (37:39):
To be in to win a Rugby ready neat peck thanks.
Speaker 2 (37:41):
To my mates at Beef and Lamb. Get the team
round and have some delicious and nutritious kie from Beef
and Lamb, New Zealand.
Speaker 3 (37:48):
Jamie will draw the winner and tomorrow's show.
Speaker 2 (37:55):
Okay, wrapping the country. Let me just get myself sorted here.
Sorry about that few hearing issues at the moment you
heard Stacy Walker text scrum to five double o nine
to be in to win the Rugby ready meatpack from
New Zealand Beef and Lamb. Thank you, Stacy, text scrum
to five double o nine. Congrats to yesterday's Wanna Neville
(38:17):
Heapey from Geraldine. We'll catch you tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (38:23):
Catch you all the latest from the land. It's the
Country podcast with Jamie McGue. Thanks to Brent. You're specialist
in John Deere machinery,
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay thanks to Brent, the starkest of
the leading agriculture brands.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Good a good afternoon, New Zealand. I'm Jamie McKay. This
is the Country and it's brought to you by Brandt.
One of my favorite people at Brant is Rick Ladd.
You heard about Tom Selleck at the top of the hour,
No doubt if you are listening to news talks, he'd
be un news bulletin. Rick Ladd sort of sounds like
a name from the seventies, could have been out of
(00:53):
Magnum p I. He's on a wee bit later in
the show from Taranaki. We're going to kick it off
though with the Prime Minister. Taranaki of course a wonderful
dairying province along with Waikato, Canterbury, Southland, the big dairy provinces,
who have I forgotten some of the dairy farms in
the Bay are plenty of going into kiwi fruit. The
(01:15):
Prime Minister kick it off positive effects Fonterra's three point
two billion dollar sugar hit could have on the rural
economy and did he overstep the mark chewing the air
of the Reserve Bank. I say good on them because
interest rates are heading down and they need to go
down further. It was a picture perfect photo shoot fit
for the Women's Weekly. Two high profile rural personalities arm
(01:39):
and arm on a North Otago farm. We're going to
talk to one of them on today's show, Stephan Vogel
Outs of Australia RABO Research GM for Australia and New Zealand,
get his thoughts on where interest and exchange rates are going.
So if you've got a big mortgage out there at
the moment and a lot of you farmers do what
(02:00):
what should you do if you're rolling off a fixed
straight now? Do you ride the floating rate down or
do you take some short term fixed action and try
and pick the bottom of the market. And as I said,
Rick lad love that name out of brand. It's all
on the Country and it's all brought to you by
I was gonna say Rabobank, that's Saturday Morning show.
Speaker 3 (02:23):
Let's try Brandts.
Speaker 2 (02:43):
Wednesdays on the Country. The PM kicks off the show
Christopher Luxon, do you agree with your mentor John Key
that where Fonterra goes New Zealand goes and how much
of a boost will the three point two billion dollar
capital return from Fonterra to its far I'm as shareholders
be for the new Zealand economy.
Speaker 4 (03:02):
Good afternoon, well, good afternoon, Jam, You're good to be
with you as always. Look, there's no doubt about it.
I just think the last week have been really good
news for agriculture. Again, you've got the three point two
billion out of the three point eight billion sale coming
straight back and being returned to sholder farmers. That's going
to be a massive boost. You know, it's going to
be a really significant amount of money. And more importantly,
it is the right strategy for Fonterra to be pushing
(03:24):
out on the business to business side of things, or
the food service sides of things where there's better margins
and that's what's been helping. You had another fifteen cent
rise i think to the global dairy price, and then
we had a twenty five basic point interest rate cut
and also the Reserve Bank coming out with proposals based
off our FEC Primary Industries Selectmmittee inquiry saying look they're
going to look at risk adjustment for key sectors, meaning agriculture,
(03:47):
but also you know, potentially lighting those capital rule requirements
on banks which actually will put down with pressure interest
rates again, So you know, I think that's being I
think all of that is really good. And certainly if
you're in the South Island primary industy whose rural you're
feeling some effects of growth, which is excellent. But if
you're sitting in Auckland, it's still very tough.
Speaker 2 (04:06):
No one likes the corrector. It's actually up to four
point two billion dollars. Now we've got the bigger deal
across the line.
Speaker 4 (04:13):
Yes, of course he's at another four undred million on top.
Speaker 2 (04:15):
Yes, good news, look well done you and it's about time.
But did you overstep the mark talking about the Reserve Bank?
Did you get into Christian Hawksby's air Did you chew
it big time?
Speaker 5 (04:29):
No?
Speaker 4 (04:29):
Look, I've seen all the communes about it. But the
thing is, say up front, and I said in that
interview with Mike Hosking as well, was that respect the
independents of the Reserve Bank. I don't direct them on
monetary policy, but we do have a very formal meeting
every couple of months with the Reserve Bank Governor, the
Minister of Finance and myself, and it's an opportunity, frankly,
(04:49):
for us to each exchange our review, you know, our
prospectives and what we're in, our views on the economy
and what we think we're seeing. They're always pretty engaging
compisations that occasionally pretty bus but they're pretty They're very
useful exchanges. And I understand my role, which is I'm
here to drive fiscal policy.
Speaker 6 (05:07):
They are there to.
Speaker 4 (05:07):
Drive monetary policy. We need the two working in sync,
which has happened you know, the time of my government.
We can have lots of Yeah, they also have good
access to data. They talk to a bunch of different stakeholders.
I'm essentially one of those stakeholders and I find them engaging,
useful conversations. But I don't direct them to tell or
tell them what to do. I can't do that under law.
(05:28):
And also, frankly, our governors know that, and they are
pretty independent and they wouldn't do so under any prime
minister doing that in New Zealand past or present or future.
Speaker 2 (05:38):
Reserve banks a bit of a shambles.
Speaker 7 (05:39):
Really.
Speaker 2 (05:40):
I'm looking at the doubling the Auckland office space and
this is despite cutting a fifth of its staff a
fourteen point five million dollar fit out. I mean, they're
basically a whole lot of nerds setting they could sit
in a basement somewhere and do the same job.
Speaker 4 (05:56):
Yeah, that was utterly unacceptable because I think UK we
would find that spending on office space for two hundred
staff for us on the two hundred staff acceptable at all.
But basically that is sort of a little bit of
the problem that I've inherited, right, that is a legacy
of the previous governments. They have five year funding agreements
between the government and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand
and that presided over a massive increase in the bank's
(06:17):
funding but also massive increase in staff numbers. And the
unfortunate Minister of Finance doesn't personally approve the bank's expenditure.
That's the job of the governor and also the Reserve
Bank Board. You might remember a month ago we have
a new five year funding agreement that we have.
Speaker 5 (06:32):
Negotiated with the board that has lowered.
Speaker 4 (06:34):
Expenses by twenty five percent and it's half the capital
budget that the Reserve Bank wanted. So we now expect
the bank, frankly to explore options to generate revenue from
that space in Auckland and says to sublease or do
other things than Soviet I'm.
Speaker 2 (06:49):
Reading from the New Zealand Herald. Trade Minister Todd McLay
confirms New Zealand's concerns over US tariffs fall on the affairs.
Was it a waste of an affair sending him to Washington?
Speaker 4 (07:02):
No, absolutely not. I mean you've got to have daily,
ongoing relationships with trade ministers all around the world, and
you know, really what happened there was that he was
invited by his counterpart, Genison Greere. He gets on very
well with He has a good personal relationship as well
as professional one, and that was really an ongoing relationship
and around you know, and dialogue, which is really important.
(07:23):
So yes, we can disagree on tariffs, and we do.
We know the presence very fixed on his views and
that's unlikely to change. But even so there are still
things like non tariff trade barriers to discuss, and particular
around dairy and other things that you know are just
normal everyday business that you know Todd has done a
good job on. I think in the first year, just
to give you a feel for I think Todd got
rid of almost seven hundred million dollars worth of non
(07:45):
tariff barriers across our different trading relationships. So you know
that's important that we just haven't ongoing dialog. We can
agree to disagree on the tariff situation and we'll continue
to make our position clear on that, but also we've
got to crack on and actually work through other trade
issues as well, and that's important that those relationships are
in place.
Speaker 2 (08:03):
Growth rates for the New Zealand economy two point four
percent this year, three point one percent next year. What's
an acceptable growth rate?
Speaker 4 (08:12):
Well, I mean, essentially the forecast is still on track
for what we took what we've talked about back at
the budget, which is two point seven percent average over
that each of the four years in the plan ahead,
and that creates about two hundred and forty thousand extra
job So, you know, the story, Jamie's quite interesting because
we got some growth in quarter four last year before Christmas.
(08:33):
We got really quite good growth in the first January
February March this year. Then we had Independence Day in April,
and it's not so much the bipartisan trade between New
Zealand and the US it's impacted because it's still up
six or seven percent, But what it actually is is
just the uncertainty, the chaos at that causes and the
loss of confidence and sentiment, and we certainly felt that
(08:53):
through that three month period April May June, so I
suspect the economy came back a bit. But we're now
growing the economy again this and as we go onto
the last quarter of the year, which will be October
November December, we're expecting strong in good growth there as well.
So you know, it has been two speed. We'real South
Island primary industry is great, growing strongly. Auckland Wellington more challenge,
(09:15):
but we've got manufacturing something to come on file, thanks
I think to the investment boost. We've got a heap
of infrastructure projects, which of course drides lots of activity
for tradees and others involved in those projects. So you know,
I think the outlook is still really is very promising.
And you know, honestly, I know it's been a very
difficult and tough time as we've dealt with the recession,
dealt with the COVID hangover, dealt with international tariffs. But
(09:37):
actually New Zealand I think is incredibly well positioned for
the future.
Speaker 2 (09:40):
What are you hearing finally about Stuart Nash standing for
New Zealand first, Well, Winneston, will Winston stand for it?
Will Shane be jealous?
Speaker 6 (09:50):
Well?
Speaker 4 (09:50):
They sound like perfectly good questions to put the winter
when your next talk to them. But I've just focused
on my own party people even and focusing on the
New Zealand people are being Prome Minister.
Speaker 2 (10:02):
Well, I'm glad you said you're not focused on getting
the barnacles off the boat, because we've banned that on
this show.
Speaker 4 (10:09):
I got to bring you a new cliche, don't know.
I think you need a new one.
Speaker 2 (10:11):
I think and you need a new one each week. Look,
thank you very much for your time. Really appreciate it.
Speaker 6 (10:16):
Great Jamie, take care.
Speaker 2 (10:18):
The Prime Minister. Seventeen after twelve you are with the country.
Apparently the musical theme today, according to Michelle's music from
Bogan Weddings First Dance Up, this is a great song
from a great band Aerosmith, from a great movie Armageddon.
Almost cried myself and Bruce Willis decided to stay on
(10:42):
the asteroid and blow it up to save the world,
sacrificed himself for liv Tyler and who is the other guy?
Ben affleck good movie. I see stuffs and this is
sad and tragic is reporting the death of former Highlander
(11:02):
and Tasman Marco captain Shane Christie, thirty nine years of age.
We'll see if we can confirm that one for you.
He had some real concussion issues and it's a real
issue and rugby and contact sport at the moment, isn't it.
See the game's changed a lot since I played in
(11:23):
the eighties and early nineties. Mind duets to hide it
fall back and didn't get too involved in the rough
and tumble. But the hits are so much bigger. It's
so much tougher are these days to play rugby than
it perhaps was twenty or thirty or forty years ago.
Sad times. In sympathies to the Christie family. Up next,
we are heading to north Otago. I got sent a picture,
(11:48):
in fact, a picture perfect photo of too high profile
rural personalities arm in arm on a north Otago farm.
That's up next on the country.
Speaker 3 (12:03):
Of Mormon.
Speaker 2 (12:14):
Sister.
Speaker 1 (12:14):
Who's the only one.
Speaker 2 (12:19):
Her little sister, who's your super little sister, who's the
one you one little sister?
Speaker 1 (12:27):
Shotgun?
Speaker 2 (12:29):
Last, we love your feedback here on the country, especially
when you send us a nice farming pack. I got
one a couple of days ago from our next guest.
It looked like something from the pages of Woman's Weekly
or the Woman's Weekly. Man and woman arm and arms
standing on the farm. Quite beautiful and picturesque. Let's welcome
(12:51):
the female part of the component onto the show. Jane Smith,
North Otago farmer and a former owner of the Balance Farm.
Environment towards the Onlyblemers And the photo. Jane, it's not
your Habby Blair. It's Damian O'Connor. Have you two kissed
and made up?
Speaker 7 (13:07):
Good afternoon, Jamie. Yeah, it was quite the photo, wasn't it.
Set's taken on Damien's spine. And who would have thought, Jamie,
who would have thought this, you know, six or twelve
months ago, that I'd be welcoming Jamien into onto the farm,
you know, scones in hand and for a cup of tea.
But look, you know, I often think time spent was
those that may have opposing views is a lot more
(13:28):
valuable than an agreement session. And I've matured a lot
of my political allegiances, I guess, and I care not
for the color of the political rosette that you wear.
But for the best outcomes for our country and our countryside, Jamie.
And this was this was part of it. And Damien
was keen to you know, he has to pick a
come up and I said bare and I said yes.
And Blair was here as a mediator, but wasn't needed
at all, actually, And I do like about one thing
(13:50):
I really like about Damien is if he disagrees with you,
he'll tell you straight up, and because there's nothing worse
than sort of a vanilla sort of vanilla tones and
sort of simply appeasing you because it's the easiest thing
to do. And what if Muhammed Gardani say, honest disagreement
is often a sign of good progress, Jamie. And you
know that That's where Jamie and I've got to Yeah.
Speaker 2 (14:10):
Does he realize that you, in the past and on
the show have called him an inverted Commas wormy weather.
Speaker 6 (14:17):
Yeah, well it's been well out in the open, Jamie.
Speaker 7 (14:19):
He didn't actually ask me to apologize for that, and
you know at that time, and I was pretty straight
up with him. You know, between twenty seventeen and twenty
twenty three, we had a constant barrage of submissions that
we had to put in. You know, business owners around
the country, whether you're farming or manufacturing, or mining or fisheries,
were hunted down by the labor of Green's government and framed,
you know, without trials, So you know, hundreds of hours
(14:40):
will put into submissions. And one thing I did talk
about was, you know, let's have the submission process before regulation,
not afterwards, and give those that are most affected by
it involved up front that it's the most efficient and
effective way. And you know everybody wants, including textpayers, because
it saves the hell of.
Speaker 6 (14:57):
A lot of money too. So you know, we really
we put that, you know, draw a.
Speaker 7 (15:02):
Line under that, I guess, and hopefully onwards and upwards.
And I know it's really easy when you're in the
opposition to be you know, quite congenial. But we had
a lot of discussions around you know, things like pasture
raised the fact that you know, we're not really pushing
that far enough. G three has never been pushed beyond
sort of a background noise, and you know, these are
(15:22):
key tenets of our unique pasture proposition in New Zealands.
And we've jumped straight to the biotech lab and he was.
Speaker 6 (15:28):
Very He absolutely agrees with that.
Speaker 7 (15:30):
So you know, that's something I want to see Damien
champion champion over the next couple of years, and as
well as you know the holes in the moment at
the moment in the carbon forestry scenario, and I know
the Windham Warrior Dean Rabbit has been quite vocal on
this in the last couple of days. But you know
that that class seven and eighth land, I'm still very
concerned about that. That is, you know, literally the breeding
(15:52):
ground for our our youth and our cows that produce
the carbs and the lambs that are getting such great
prices around the world at the moment, and also the
guardians of the two point six million hectares of native biodiversity,
And so they seem to still think that that's sort
of an expendable.
Speaker 6 (16:09):
Figure on a spreadsheet.
Speaker 7 (16:11):
These are real communities and those you know, there really
needs to be a tightening down of that because it's
still happening in those classes of land.
Speaker 6 (16:17):
Jamie.
Speaker 2 (16:17):
So in your Woman's Weekly photo shoot with Damian O'Connor
on the North Otago farm, were you cuddling up to
him sort of to get us political smarts? Now that
you are kicking off your own political career, Jane Smith.
You're standing for the position of South Island Director for Ravenstown,
which is interesting because when I first met you many
many years ago down on Southland, you were working for
(16:39):
Ravenstown as a field rep.
Speaker 7 (16:41):
Yeah, that's right, Jamie, and I've been sort of approached
by a number of farmers over the past few years
to stand and I just probably had enough that I
was juggling at the time. But I think I'm particularly
interested in the fertilizer sector at the moment because over
the next you know, two to two to five to
ten years, is it's going to be a really challenging
I guess time for the fertilizer sector and the pastoral
(17:02):
and arable sector as well, and horticulture. And I guess
I just see that possibly I've got some strengths that
I could put around the table, and it actually that's
as a company that I'm really passionate about, and I
guess I do have a forthright manner around the board table.
I think Blear describes me yesterday as a cross between
Margaret Thatcher and Angela Merkele. I hope he was meeting
(17:22):
my boardroom demeanor, not my appearance, Jamie. He might have
need and I might have lost both actually, but you know,
I take no prisons. But those that have worked around
with me around the table would actually say I am
forthright but collaborative.
Speaker 6 (17:33):
Well I hope they would.
Speaker 7 (17:34):
But you know, the combination of my Scottish and German
genes mean I'm absolutely focused on efficiency and effectiveness and
I think our fertilizer seek to absolutely needs it at
the moment, Jamie. So again, I just encourage people to vote,
not necessarily for me. I'm not everybody's cup of tea,
but you know, voting and using that right to vote,
because I think generally the voter turn out, especially when
(17:55):
returns are pretty good in the sector, tend to be
pretty low. And actually we need to be really super
sharp on the way forward in the sector, and you
know I want to be part of that.
Speaker 2 (18:04):
Jenney, Okay, fair enough for the Ravensdown directorship the North Island,
Jacqueline Rawith Rowath elected unopposed. There another regular on the show,
and you're up against a couple of pretty high profile
women and farming or agri business Nikky Hislop and Rebecca Cogan,
both with very good cvs. Got to give them a
mention here, Jane or us. I'll have to send you
(18:25):
a bill for this.
Speaker 7 (18:26):
Oh absolutely, Jamien. Look, their cvs are very sharp and
well beyond mind.
Speaker 6 (18:30):
And I know that.
Speaker 7 (18:31):
I know when we had our interviews to sort of
to they assess your governance suitability, I was you know
that They now, yeah, I was pretty pretty poorly scored
because I actually just told them what I thought in
terms of a governance and a way forward. And I
haven't spent my last few years sitting in Institute of
Directors courses or walking from boardroom to boardroom, but I
(18:51):
think I have enough governance experience both locally globally with
a global farmer around table and in Wellington. And also
I'm still a hands on farmer, and there's something that
gives you a really crystal clear vision on everything, you know,
if you've got your head down crutching lands or on
the tractor or out milking cows. And I think again,
it's that balance between farmer directors and full time directors
(19:14):
that we need in our sector. And again, I pull
no punches, and I just think that the sector needs
someone like that at the moment. Jamie but yeah, absolutely
the right person for the job, and if it's not me,
that's also an equally good outcome.
Speaker 2 (19:26):
This is starting to sound like an election campaign ad here, Jane,
let me just finish with happenings in the meat industry
at the moment. I know that you're not an Alliance
Group supplier, but what do you make of what's happening
read the Dawn meats? What are they going to spend
two hundred and fifty million dollars? Look at my numbers
to get what is it? Sixty five percent of the
Alliance Group And I know there's moves a foot from
(19:48):
some of the biggest shareholders in Alliance to try and
revisit this. They want to keep control of one hundred
percent farmer co op. Is that practical these days for
the meat industry?
Speaker 7 (20:00):
It's interesting Jomy and I share their diss of everybody's
disappointment and the value offered to that stake and Alliance
and it certainly doesn't know none of us actually solves
any of our structural issues that we have in our sector.
And it seems to be a very much alike it
or lumpet, So there's no plan B or see and
it would have been great.
Speaker 6 (20:15):
To see sort of a bit of a bit.
Speaker 7 (20:17):
More dynamic options in there, and it feels like that,
you know, they are getting painted into a corner. That's said,
It's also sounds like Dawn makes it a very highly successful,
very progressive company.
Speaker 6 (20:29):
I've heard that from.
Speaker 7 (20:31):
My Irish farming friends. And you know, they might give
a really fresh perspective into the into the sector. And
they're obviously after that New Zealand providence and that all
year round supply and that food security which is obviously
what everybody wants globally at the moment.
Speaker 6 (20:45):
So whether there's a balance here in terms of.
Speaker 7 (20:48):
In terms of percentage of takeover and and you know,
there's good that that shoeholders are really getting involved there.
But I guess it like all co ops and Alliance
and our fertilizer company are no different. We've got to
really look at what does a co op mean? And
that's you know, it feels like we need to go
back to first principles because we tend to hang on
to that when instead of actually just unpacking it and
(21:08):
thinking what does it mean? And you talk to a
lot of sub thirty year old farmers out there at
the moment, and they say they just want a really
dynamic company that pays a good price and they can
get you know, Surety of Kurl et cetera like that,
and they're doing some great things globally. So it's a
balanced Jamie, isn't it. So it'll be really interesting over
the next few months. And again I think it's worth
fighting for, but it's also worth having that injection into
(21:32):
the seat to Jamie.
Speaker 2 (21:33):
Okay, Jane Smith, thanks for your time. Good luck in
the Ravens Down Director race, and good luck to all
the candidates. Can we post your photo are your Woman's
weekly photo shoot with Damien on their website?
Speaker 7 (21:43):
You might have a haftars Damien. It was taken on
his phone, Jamie and he yeah, I don't know whether.
Speaker 2 (21:48):
Hell he has public property. And well done to Blair.
A cross between Maggie that's or and Angela Merkele maybe
not a mile away.
Speaker 3 (21:55):
Thanks Jane, good one, so you.
Speaker 2 (21:57):
Good on you, Jane. It is twenty eight away from one.
You're with the country brought to you by Brand. Lots
of feedback coming and we'll get to that up next.
Rural News and sports News. We'll update the sad passing
of Shane Christy.
Speaker 6 (22:10):
Start again, then.
Speaker 2 (22:16):
Welcome back to the country. The show's brought to you
by Brandt so very shortly the latest in the rural
news and sports news. But how good is this? The
Canterbury Show is back baby, Well that's my take on it. Anyhow,
as the Royal amp Show of New Zealand for twenty
twenty five, and they'd love to see your business there
Marked on the rural calendars across the nation. The Royal
(22:38):
amp Show of New Zealand, hosted by the Canterbury Amp Show,
is the largest of its kind in the country, representing
the pinnacle of agricultural achievement and now with Royal status,
it stands as the premiere showcase of excellence in New
Zealand's rural sector. Held over three action pack days, the
show features NonStop entertainment from the country's largest questrian competition
(23:01):
to thrilling sharing events and international woodshopping, dog trials, lawnmower racing,
live music and over four hundred trade sites for the
seventy thousand plus strong attendees to check out. Some exciting
new initiatives for twenty twenty five include a Farmer's Day
on Thursday with more to be announced. The Royal Amp
Show of New Zealand, hosted by the Canterbury Amp Association
(23:24):
at the Canterbury Agricultural Park, is on November thirteen to fifteen,
twenty twenty five, with sites from just five hundred dollars
for three days and applications now eighty percent booked. Make
sure you secure your site before they're all gone. Visit
the Show dot co dot nz for more info. Bang
(23:44):
on twenty five Away from One. He's Michelle Watt with
the latest and rural news.
Speaker 1 (23:50):
The country's world news with Cod Cadet, New Zealand's leading
right on Lawnbower brand. Visit steel Ford dot co dot
nz for your locals.
Speaker 8 (23:59):
Doggust and two weather systems are forecast to sweep across
New Zealand, bringing rain and wind before Spring's arrival. Of course,
spring officially on Monday. Met Service is issued a heavy
rain watch for north of Gisbon City until midnight tonight,
and a strong wind watch is already in place for
eastern areas of Northland and Great Barrier Island at or
three pm, with gus forecast throught to one hundred kilometers
(24:20):
an hour in some areas. The bottom half of the
North Island and much of the South Island will have
clear skies, but the Met Services issued a heavy rain
warning and strong wind watches for Fiordland and Otago from
late Thursday evening until about midday Friday, so make sure
you keep up with those weather updates. And his Jane was.
Speaker 1 (24:36):
Sport sport with AFCO Kiwi to the bone since nineteen
oh four.
Speaker 2 (24:41):
Yes, as we reported a week bit earlier earlier, excuse
me for my Mari all Black Shane Christy has died.
The ex Tasman on Highlanders flanker was just thirty nine
years of age. Tasman CEO Steve Mitchell has confirmed his passing.
A Rugby World Cup organizers Women's Rugby World Cup organizers
(25:02):
and sister call to expand the women's teams was right
despite a bevy of mismatches to open the tournament in England.
Sally Horricks, the governing body's head of the women's game,
says competition is growing and all Black swing Caleb Clark
has been cleared to return from injury for Auckland against
Wellington in Round five NPC action at Porua on Sunday.
(25:27):
Will they start him at Eden Park the following Saturday.
I say give Leroy Carter a go. I'm less consistent
on that talking about women's Rugby World Cup. Listen out
for Stacy Waker and your chance to win the Rugby
Ready meatpack before the end of the hour. Always enjoy
(25:57):
catching up with this man on the country because he's
a smart man. And you don't get to be the
RABO Research GM for Australia and New Zealand no less
unless you are quite a smart plug. Stefan Vogel joins
us out of oz Stephan, I want to start with
the exchange rate and interest rates. Of course here in
New Zealand last week we had the Reserve Bank dropping
(26:19):
the OCR to three percent. Interestingly, they signaled another two
drops to get it down to two and a half percent.
What are you guys at Rabobanks saying.
Speaker 9 (26:31):
Look, you already summarized it nicely and if you look
at the wording that we have seen in coming out
of the meetings there, it actually signaled to the market
that it wasn't a matter of Shelby cut or Shelby
not cut, but it was a matter of Shelby cut
twenty five or fifty. And when do we do the
next one. So the market obviously is already pricing in
(26:52):
another twenty five basis points towards the end of this
year that will be cut and another twenty five or
so to be cut in the first half of next year.
And that's all good news for the consumers over in
New Zealand, I think. So as a German, I'm trying
to be positive and today I think will be a
call of a lot of good news for those who
(27:12):
look at the input cost site.
Speaker 2 (27:13):
Are you telling me that Germans aren't positive? I know
you're not generally humorous, Stefan, but you ah tough on you.
Speaker 9 (27:21):
I don't want to be general, but I can only
talk about myself. So I'm trying to be positive these days.
So obviously in a world where we have to find
through tougher trading times, I think for our businesses there
is a lot good news also still on the horizon.
So I said, the interest rate is one and if
you look at the impact this has because obviously not
(27:42):
only here in New Zealand, a lot has happened in
the meetings there of the Central Bank. But if you
look into the US, obviously mister Trump is trying to
fire the governor Cook and she's refusing to leave office,
and so we have a battle there ongoing. That's obviously
something that impacts the exchange rate quite a bit because
(28:05):
for US in Australia and New Zealand, the US dollar
is just a very important currency. So if we're looking
at where we've been, we've been actually rather weak following
the cuts we had in New Zealand here with a
currency and now with a turmoil in the US. It's
balancing slightly higher, but overall we're still well below sixty
cents to the US dollar, and that's I think good
(28:27):
for the export market because it just brings a little
bit more extra New Zealand dollars into our pockets when
we sell our products in the global market in the
US dollars.
Speaker 2 (28:36):
Absolutely fifty eight and a half when I had a
look this morning at might have updated since then, but
that's a very export friendly exchange right for US.
Speaker 9 (28:46):
Absolutely, it helps us there. It may make our imports
a little bit more expensive, but that level, I think
is a good and healthy one. But we can't just
think that, oh, it's going to stay there. We have
seen that the exchange rate is what we call a
shock absorb in these times, whenever there's a hit to
the economy, whenever there's a big Trump blow against China
(29:07):
against any other country, we see the exchange rate taking
the shock a little bit and absorbing it and moving
quite a bit. So we're still expecting that there could
be a turnaround of that interest rates, sorry of that FX,
and we may move towards the sixty level brother soon again,
but there is quite a bit of a volatility in
(29:27):
the market going forward. And for now, as you said,
good for the exporters, Well, I'm sure.
Speaker 2 (29:32):
We could live with the sixty USC in exchange right,
sort of pick you up on a comment you made
away bit earlier about the perhaps two more drops in
the OCA. Commentators are here are saying those two right
drops would or could happen before Christmas. You're calling one
between now on the end of the year and one
on the new year.
Speaker 9 (29:52):
Yeah, so I'm referring to what I see in the
market and the forward curve of the swaps basically, So
that's where we are. But you're right, that could be
even a of either fifty busis points this year or
two cuts of twenty five. So with the latest comments,
I think everybody gets a gets a little bit more
(30:12):
excited about a further drop in the interest rate in
New Zealand.
Speaker 2 (30:17):
Stephan Vogel with this Rabo research GM for Australia and
New Zealand. If you're sitting out there on your farm
and you've got a big mortgage to Rabobank of course Stefan,
and it's about to come off a fixed st rate,
what do you do at the moment? Do you just
roll on floating, do you ride the floating train down?
Or do you take some short action I don't know
(30:37):
six or twelve months.
Speaker 9 (30:39):
Look, I don't want to give anybody an advice without
knowing their circumstances. But overall, I think for many of
us who have a mortgage, it is a good thing
if the interest rates comes down. And the question is
what does it do to your business if we would
soar in these interest rates? So right now the market
doesn't call it, but the market has been wrong in
(31:00):
the past, and that's kind of where I think the
risk assessment of everybody needs to kick in and we
need to think, well, are we happy if we lock
in something at this rate or do we want to
think it may drop further? But we've seen it also
on the way up. A lot of people were called
are caught a little bit off guard by the point
in time that the writing was on the wall that
(31:22):
we see interest rates increasing. When we went into that
up cycle, it was already too late to log in rates.
So that I think everybody needs to take their own
decisions about what is good for their farm and what
is not good for their farm, to make sure that
we cover some other risks, because at the end of
the day, it's not only that part. It's also the
cost on farm that we need to monitor. Obviously, fertilizers
(31:45):
are still expensive. Fuel is volatile in these days as well.
When we look at the geopolitics and feed grain is
maybe one of those that brings us a little bit
of good news. So with that it's going to be
price wise, probably a struggle for these who grow it,
but it will be good times for those who need
to buy some feed train and for New Zealand. Obviously
(32:06):
you're importing quite a bit of grain also from Australia.
We had some very good rains in the southern part
of the country. Here South Australia, which was dry, had
some good rains. We had some rains in Victoria, Western Australia.
Many parts had good rains you as well, So with
that we're actually setting us up for a pretty good crop.
Not a record crop for sure, not but it looks
(32:28):
much better as we speak now than if we would
have had the same call four weeks ago before those rains.
Speaker 2 (32:35):
Stephan Vogel Rabobank out of Australia. Thanks for your tom
Always good to catch up. Appreciate it. And you know
I was only joking about Germans not having a sense
of humor.
Speaker 9 (32:44):
So later I know that we can always joke about today.
Thank you, go on you Stephan.
Speaker 2 (32:49):
Yeah, just continuing on from that story about the death
of for More all Black for Ma Mari all Black
and Highland A Shan Christie is being reported as a
suspected suicide unfortunately, follows Billy giton Sad Times for Tasman
and Joey Wheeler. If you are listening, fair for your mate,
because I know they were both very good friends of yours.
(33:10):
Up next, Rick Lad, we head to the Taranaki. I
thought it was going to be Gisbon two days in
a row here on the country, of course. Sandra Matthews
from Rural Women and zed gisbine sheep and beef farmer
on the show yesterday. This bloke's normally domiciled there, but
(33:31):
today we find him in Stratford, Taranaki, where, no doubt,
where I know the carving is in full swing. His
name is Rick lad He's the director of sales for
New Zealand for our wonderful sponsors Brand and Rick, what
do you make of this news? And I bet you
all you guys in the rural supply industry, especially tractor
selling tractors and farm machinery, like you guys do make
(33:54):
of the announcement from Fonterra last week that three point
two billion dollars will go back to Fonterra farmer shareholders.
I reckon there's a bit of pent up capital expenditure,
not only on farm machinery but also on capital, fertilizer
and all sorts of stuff on farm. It's got to
be good for provincial New Zealand.
Speaker 10 (34:14):
Yeah, good afternoon, Jamie hastening listeners.
Speaker 9 (34:16):
Yeah, no, it is good, mate.
Speaker 10 (34:18):
And I think obviously been a co op mate.
Speaker 5 (34:19):
It's going to go to get voted in, But I
think it's fairly obvious where they're going to go. So yep,
dead right, it's been today. It's been good on a
calendar year for us in terms of the industry, and
I think for next year, for twenty twenty six, only
good things are going to come from this mate. It's
great to see the dear industry getting those written, the
(34:41):
rewards made of what's been a pretty tough couple of.
Speaker 6 (34:43):
Years for them.
Speaker 2 (34:44):
Absolutely, And you're in heartland dairying country at the moment
in Taranaki. What's it looking like?
Speaker 5 (34:50):
It's looking good, mate, So yeah, Carvin's well underweight. Although
it's been a bit cold of late. It's beautiful over
here today. It's sun to shine in the mountains out
and yeah, grasp Oath is a way so yeah, everything's
looking looks looking positive over here in Banaki.
Speaker 2 (35:04):
Now talking about Gisbone, I'm going there on October the seventeenth.
We're going to broadcast the show from the Gisbone or
is it the Poverty Bay? A MP show, best little
amp show in the country from the branch side. Have
you got the red carpet ready for me?
Speaker 5 (35:17):
Rick, We'll be sure to Jamie.
Speaker 10 (35:21):
Yeah, Hey, like.
Speaker 5 (35:22):
Neville and Dumpler are doing a Buddy Thompson doing a
good job there, mate, and yeah, we're looking forward to
having you along.
Speaker 10 (35:29):
The AMP show has been it's.
Speaker 5 (35:31):
Been bloody good to us over the years in Gisbon
in this capacity obviously going in sales. It's the country
comes to town and the town comes to the country, mate.
So it's a hell of a good show. And you're right,
it is one of the best MPs, the best AMP
show around the country.
Speaker 2 (35:47):
Well, some people in Wannaica might disagree, mind you. I
think yours is a true AMP that's a bit more
lifestyle of the one one. And of course, and we
can't forget the Canterbury A and P Show, which is
really making a comeback. Talked about some of this money
that's available for capital expenditure, you want to get your
hands on some of it. What deals have you got
for the farmers at the moment, because at Field Days
(36:09):
you had a deal on what you would call a
base John Dare tractor. I think about ninety five horse
power chuck a loader on that. It'll do all the
handy jobs around the farm.
Speaker 10 (36:20):
Yeah, well we've continued that momentum from the Field Days, Jamie.
The Field Days by far has been I think we
alluded to last time we spoke. It's by far the
most boyant that well I've seen definitely going in this capacity.
Speaker 5 (36:31):
So we've continued that momentum with that. The five oh
ninety five them, the little half framed tractor with the
lift capacity of a six thousand and the power cord transmission.
That's been bloody good to us, so we've decided to
continue that and keep.
Speaker 6 (36:46):
Rolling with it.
Speaker 9 (36:47):
So by mens, come see us, mate, and.
Speaker 5 (36:49):
To your local John Dy dealer and we'll see what
we can do.
Speaker 6 (36:52):
And we've also.
Speaker 5 (36:53):
Complimented that as well with the point ninety five percent
finance over five years.
Speaker 10 (36:58):
And an extended warranty.
Speaker 6 (36:59):
So we've con to me there too.
Speaker 5 (37:00):
And as well as that, we've got the higher horsepower
too for the contractor the farmers that report that a
little bit more grunt to get the job done. We've
got one hundred and ninety five horsepower tractors who've got
some aged units, aged new and stuff that we want
to get rid of to bring the new sixteen series in.
So come see us and see what we can do.
Speaker 2 (37:16):
All right, the ninety five horsepower based tractor, you've got
the one hundred and ninety five horses for the guys
who want a bit more grunt for some of that
agricultural work. Rick lad enjoy the rest of your day
in Stratford and the Taranak. We'll catch you in Gisbon
mid October.
Speaker 10 (37:32):
Looking forward to Jamie. Good on your mate.
Speaker 7 (37:33):
Thanks Hi, Stacy Walker here, take scrums of five zero
zero in nine.
Speaker 5 (37:39):
To be in to win a Rugby ready neat peck thanks.
Speaker 2 (37:41):
To my mates at Beef and Lamb. Get the team
round and have some delicious and nutritious kie from Beef
and Lamb, New Zealand.
Speaker 3 (37:48):
Jamie will draw the winner and tomorrow's show.
Speaker 2 (37:55):
Okay, wrapping the country. Let me just get myself sorted here.
Sorry about that few hearing issues at the moment you
heard Stacy Walker text scrum to five double o nine
to be in to win the Rugby ready meatpack from
New Zealand Beef and Lamb. Thank you, Stacy, text scrum
to five double o nine. Congrats to yesterday's Wanna Neville
(38:17):
Heapey from Geraldine. We'll catch you tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (38:23):
Catch you all the latest from the land. It's the
Country podcast with Jamie McGue. Thanks to Brent. You're specialist
in John Deere machinery,
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