January 21, 2025 • 38 mins
Jamie Mackay talks to Winston Peters, Mike McIntyre, Jen Corkran, Sandra Matthews, and Rowena Duncum.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Catch You're the latest from the land. It's The Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to Brent, You're specialist in
John Deere machinery.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
You go, Maggie, Thank God God Sumer save you. It's
late September. Our REALSI being back at school.
Speaker 3 (00:27):
Ador she be a mute.
Speaker 4 (00:31):
Beer good an Good afternoon, New Zealand. I'm Jamie McKay.
This is the Country brought to you by Brandt. Earlier
this morning, I caught up with Winston Peters and we
talked about age. Do you realize when he's turning eighty
on April the eleventh of this year. Donald Trump, of
(00:52):
course seventy eight? What is it about aging politicians? So
we thought our musical theme today would be its musician singers,
performers who are older than Winston and Trump. Kicking it
off with rocking Rod Stewart, who's just celebrated his eightieth birthday.
Also going to catch up with Mike McIntyre, head of
(01:13):
for Jardin's head of Commodities. Really good GDT auction result overnight.
The headline number is one point four, but the real
key number is whole milk powder up up five percent?
Does this lock in Fonterra's ten dollar milk price. We're
going to talk red meat and the improving prospects or
and the improving prospects for red meat with Gen Corchran
(01:36):
out of Rabobanks, Hamilton office. Sandra Matthews is the head
of Rural Women and z She's based just out of Gisbon.
They're getting a bit of rain there, North Island getting
a bit dry and Rowena Duncan back up host of
course here on the Country. Her latest podcast with Beef
and Lamb New Zealand's very interesting. Plus row I love
a daily hard dog to keep on the porch. Is
(01:58):
off to Australia and May on a farming tour. She's
got some great farms lined up and will tell you
how you can join her. It's all on the country
between now and or one o'clock. Kicking it off with
Winston next Western Senior Friends for the first time in
(02:25):
twenty twenty five, Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters. I won't
be able to say that after May. We'll come back
to that one. But Winston, what is it about you
old guys? In politics? Trump's seventy eight, you're seventy nine.
Some people are saying. In fact, a couple of golfers
mentioned to me at Cromwell in the weekend that you're
getting better with age.
Speaker 5 (02:46):
Well, this is not a cheese ad, but the reality
is the people have been very, very successful and much
older of the age in their life, such as Warren
Buffett Man. I mean, he was going at eighty nine
to ninety still leading one of the world's the greatest
funds organizations. His aid was four years older than him
(03:08):
and was doing the same. Then you've got Mahatiir, the
Prime Minister of Malaysia, You've got Rod Stewart, the rock stars,
Mick Jagger. It's a matter of attitude actually, and donate
your age is a good piece of advice for old people.
Speaker 4 (03:19):
Yeah, mind you look at Joe Biden. He hasn't aged
that well.
Speaker 5 (03:23):
Yeah, but a lot of people get that sort of
condition much earlier anyway, and that's a sad situation. A
lot of it, my view is treatable. A lot of it.
My view is to do with diet, the right diet,
and that's rather important. The more people see about that,
the more they should pay attention to.
Speaker 4 (03:37):
We'll hang on, aren't you infamous for the late night
whiskies and the cigarettes.
Speaker 5 (03:43):
Well, what's that got to do with somebody's health?
Speaker 4 (03:46):
Well, probably mean a lot of people would say that's
not good for your health.
Speaker 5 (03:50):
And also it's bull dust. I mean, does a die
look like somebody has been out late night all the
time on whiskey. Just have a good hard looker. The
evidence doesn't say that, you see. But that's not what
my burnans alike. The fact, Madge, is that they're so
pristine or puran. No, they'd get drunk on a wine
biscuit made. That's the trouble that you've You've got not
enough people in part with any character.
Speaker 4 (04:11):
Well, you can't be accused of not having that. You're
the Deputy Prime Minister J. D. Vance as the new
Vice President of the United States of America. I hear
that you messaged a meuse today.
Speaker 5 (04:22):
Yes, I didn't funny enough. You know, you got all
these darmn trolls are saying, why don't you message Trump?
I mean, it's appalling the ignorance of some of these
people in the social media. And the answer is, of
course he is the president and I'm not the President
of New Zealand. And that context on the Vice president
and that's why I'm calling up Trump, and that's why
I'm calling up Dad e Vance and that's why I'm
calling up Amar Rubio. The foreigners. That's the answer to that.
(04:45):
And please don't show your ignorance. But that's why it
is that the people say, oh, he doesn't know what
he's doing. He didn't even congratulate Trump. This is extraordinary.
Speaker 4 (04:56):
Well, I guess Trump his in box might have been
follow anyhow, Look, you're notoriously pro America. Can we I
asked this of Todd McLay yesterday, our Trade minister, UF
foreign minister. Can we sort of cut some sweetheart deal
with the Americans?
Speaker 5 (05:10):
You reckon the circumstances we are facing, are you know,
difficult given their Trump view on tariffs? However, that we
start with some advantages and our obligations to exploit those
to the maximum.
Speaker 4 (05:29):
Does Trump's talk on tariffs just bluster or is it
a negotiating tool.
Speaker 5 (05:35):
It's not blustered. It's a serious belief that they've lost
so much of their business to other countries because of
the failure of having tariffs. Now you get all these
three market ares to screen from the roof. This is
a bad idea. This is not not would be happening,
but it's the reality. We have to deal with the
United States. Bear in minor course, the money. In eighty
four eighty five, we threw open our door without any tariffs,
(05:58):
without any barriers at all, to the world, thinking that
they're all rushed to deal with us, and they didn't.
You see what I mean. But you still had the economists,
we still had half of the media all screaming out,
this is fantastic, this is wonderful. Well, the alst of
reality is that it wasn't wonderful. And the eco economic
decline since that time, there is that. But you can't
often get any common sense out of people when they
(06:20):
have a prejudice about where they stand. So here we come.
We've got to get into America's here and tell them
and get them to reason why we should not be
applied that in our case. And in one way it's
very very very clear why not, because the balance of
trade massively favors the United States in our case, not
the other way around.
Speaker 4 (06:41):
Well, Well, lucky Trump loves hamburgers and they need manufacturing
beef for their hamburgers.
Speaker 6 (06:46):
Putting on your.
Speaker 4 (06:47):
Foreign minister's hat, could Trump and this is crystal ball,
guys think admittedly, but I'm wondering whether he could be
a peacemaker on the world stage. He's talking about peace
through military strength. I reckon he's just gonna scare the
be Jesus out of the likes of Iran and maybe
even Putin.
Speaker 5 (07:05):
But he's already done that in the case of Gaza.
Have no doubts at all that as Ms made it
very clear in the Middle East that this matter had
to be settled and settled now that's why we've got
the might. It might be flimsy, but we've got a
truce now in Gaza. The other reality is, of course,
that he has made a very clear pastimes where they stand,
(07:27):
and I think we'll do much better in the sense
of people knowing that how should I said it? When
you've put uncertainty, then certain lyders tend to pare themselves
far better than the calculations of taking actions and there'll
be no consequences. There are numerous examples in the last
four years where there were stiffs taken by Dridden and
(07:48):
other people who I don't believe had been taking the
Trump it had been in power, but I couldn't say
at the time because we at the time we were
dealing with the different regime. They did gigim. But the
truth is that water breaking out here, there and everywhere,
and sad to say, and I don't think there would
have had ended in a different circumstance. And I think
(08:11):
Biden's situation was rather sad ready we can sad now,
but I don't believe that we should have had to
What's that very sad circumstance. And I think the Democrats
over a period of time in history will seriously regret
how they badly handle this issue.
Speaker 4 (08:32):
Yep, they've only got themselves to blame.
Speaker 2 (08:33):
Now.
Speaker 4 (08:34):
I know you're a bit like your old mate Boulger,
Jim Bolger, who said, bugger the polls. But the latest
Taxpayers Union Carrier poll has New Zealand first at eight
point one percent, up two point seven percent. The Nats
are leaking and you're the beneficiary.
Speaker 5 (08:53):
Well, I don't believe that. I think we're going to
keep on rising. And we have our strategy of the plan,
and we said in twenty twenty five we're going to
keep on going up in the pulse. And when I
say the polls, I mean our ones, not theirs because
these polses are so loose. There's one out just yesterday
called Roy Morgan. Now there's appalling pole. The differences as
something like thirteen and forteen percent between these two poles,
(09:16):
and that in any academic environment, it's just unaccepable. And
it's why is it the museum we listen and hear
and pay attention to these people when their record on
polling is so so so bad.
Speaker 4 (09:29):
Why do I get the feeling final question for you
that you're going to hate handing the Deputy prime minister's
job over in May to your nemesis David Seymour, Because
to give you credit, you've been very statesmanlike as a
Foreign minister and generally been well received as a Deputy
Prime minister. You're gonna have a word to see more
and say, hey, look I'm doing a pretty good job here, pal,
Just leave me in the seat. Now.
Speaker 5 (09:51):
You don't enter agreements and then break your word. I've
been an agreement and after agreement after agreement, and you
can't try and ask Alen Clark or involved with it.
I've ever broken my word, but others have, for which
I find them and their behavior unforgivable.
Speaker 4 (10:06):
Winston Peter's always good to chat on the country. Thanks
for making yourself available.
Speaker 5 (10:11):
Thank you cheers.
Speaker 4 (10:14):
Yes, something I prepared to weave it earlier this morning
when the Deputy Prime Minister was available, Winston Peters, we
talked about age poles. I'm going to do an age
poll with you lot our text numbers five double oh nine. Okay,
you've got two options. I'll even see if I can
come up with some sort of price. Here's your options,
Winston Peters. Is he getting better with age? Just write better?
(10:37):
Or has he passed it? Just write past. We'll do
an unofficial pole here on the country. Up next, out
of Jardin. He's the head of Commodities. Mike McIntyre A
guy I use lean on a lot for information, especially
around global dairy trade options and milk pay milk prices
and payouts. Okay, so we had a good global dairy
(11:00):
trade auction overnight. Does that lock in the ten dollars?
We'll ask him next. Jen Cochran at a Rabobank talking
red meat, Sandra Matthew's Rural Women, New Zealand and Rowena.
You want to go to Australia with Rowena on a
farming tour. She's got some great farms lined up all that.
Before the end of the hour. Michelle will be in
here of course with rural news and will update sport
(11:21):
for you as well. A good global dairy trade auction
overnight up one point four percent, but the headline number
(11:45):
for me was whole milk powder up five percent. To
tell us more, Jardin head of commodities. I think he
used to be head of derivatives. Everyone changes their name
titles these days. Mike McIntire, Mike, good afternoon. Great to
have you on the country for the first time in
twenty twenty five. This is a good result.
Speaker 7 (12:02):
Yeah, afternoon, Jamie and Havy new year. Fantastic result. You know,
I was just saying to you off here that you know,
when I look at GDT, that homwalk pattern number is
the one I concentrate on. It makes up close to
two thirds of the milk price, and seeing it up
five percent, you know, you can almost ignore everything else
that comes after it. You know, I think it's a
really good result.
Speaker 4 (12:22):
Why was anhydrous milk fat down seven point eight percent?
Because this was the number that really skewed that overall
GDT number down.
Speaker 7 (12:31):
It did in hydrous milk fat, which is basically you know,
fresh cream in its exportable form, a limited market, so
the buyers on GDT it's renowned for having an an
elastic demand pool, and so if you add additional volume
back on, like we've seen over the last couple of months,
there's typically a response. It's been fairly muted with the
(12:52):
additional volumes being added on in recent times. But obviously
that was a straw that broke the camel's back last night,
and as a result the prices fell quite significantly.
Speaker 4 (13:01):
Skim milk powder up two percent, butter up two point
two percent. There was thought of some of the fats
dropping down, cheese up two point eight percent as well.
So look, a really good result. Does this sort of
lock and place Fonterra's ten bucks?
Speaker 7 (13:16):
I think so, you know, I think the current year
is pretty much almost now in the redview mirror in
terms of risk to the to the downside. So we're
almost now focusing on that twenty sixth season. You know
what's going on. You know, what sort of shape are
we going to be once we once we hit that
opening milk price guidance at the end of May. You know,
as I said, to you again. Previously I thought it
(13:38):
was a really good result, and you know, we've had
a definite pivot from where we were at the start
of December. The fundamentals were staying to look a little mucky.
I mean, obviously, New Zim production has been very strong
throughout the year, a record in terms of calendar year,
and then you know, Chinese demand was starting to slip
and as a result, you know, there was some concern
(13:58):
about the later part of the season, which I think,
you know, given what's happened with global supplying, I think
some of those fears have been alleviated now.
Speaker 4 (14:05):
Well, the Chinese were back into it last night.
Speaker 7 (14:08):
They're not at the same sort of levels as what
they were a couple of seasons ago, so I think
it was just shy of forty percent they bought overall.
But again it's sign of a healthier market when you've
see these other regions contribute. You know, good demand from
the Middle East, good demand from Southeast Asia as you'd expect,
but then again good demand from Europe, and you know
that's possibly related to the early outbreak of this foot
(14:30):
of mouth disease and fears about whether that becomes more
ingrained as I said, you know, it's great to see
some good, healthy markets by having contributions from Wall and Sundry.
Speaker 4 (14:40):
I always talk about my little man sitting in a
Beijing office, probably a Windows Beijing office, and a sole
job is to monitor the New Zealand's climate. Will he
be getting a wee bit worried about a drying North Island?
Speaker 7 (14:55):
I think so. You know, if you have a look
at I mean, obviously the maps are available for all
to see, and so if you have a look at
the neighbor of moisture maps, now you know you can
certainly see from Taranaki east across the central Plateau. And
you know, for those of us in market, we can
set ourselves firsthand and it's done that spread north through
into the y Kaddow. I think farmers have had plenty
(15:16):
of feet on hand, and I think they'll do everything
they can to try and hold that production through to
the end of the year. But in terms of yes,
as far as offshore looking at maps, I'd certainly be
nervous about what sort of production concerns who were going
to be out of New Zealand given what's happening in
the rest of the world. You know, We've got the
Avian flu in California and the impact of that's been
worse than what we initially expected. You know, blue tang
(15:37):
already has played a big part in European production. We've
seen the environmental impact of reduced supply in places like Ireland,
in the Netherlands, and now you know, throwing in the
threat of foot of mouth and that part of the
world also. And you know, if I were sitting there
and I to procurement plan, I'll be making sure that
I bought product while it was still available.
Speaker 4 (15:57):
And we've also got Donald J. Trump. What does Jardine's
call on this with, you know, regarding Trump and tariffs
and trade.
Speaker 7 (16:05):
Yeah, I don't think we've got an official call on it.
You know, everyone's just sort of watching and waiting. You know,
the tariffs that he's talked about imposing on the first
of February to both Canada and to Mexico. They're obviously
very key dairy markets to the States. I mean, they
export about fourteen fifteen percent what they produce, and I
would say close to half of it goes to those
two markets. So what's the response going to be to
(16:27):
those tariffs that have been imposed by the States. You know,
will it be that they both procure less milk from
the States and provides an opportunity for other markets, or
in turn, does that make some of the milk products
that we send into the likes of mexicome more expensive
when they process and the center back in the state.
So I think it's a really a really it's a
(16:48):
moving feast. At the moment, we're not really sure how
it's going to land. Simply, there's been a lot of
bluster about what was going to be put in place.
The fact that China hasn't had, you know, punitive tariff
put in place right from the outset's probably quite a
good thing for the rest of the world. You know,
we want to see We're a country that relies on trade,
so barriers aren't an ideal for us.
Speaker 4 (17:09):
We wouldn't expect Mike McIntyre out of Jarden. I was
going to say head of Derivatives, but that was so
that was so twenty twenty four. I didn't realize that
you'd upgraded to a head of commodities. It sounds very
good anyhow, always good the chat mate.
Speaker 7 (17:23):
Thanks for Rauch Chamming.
Speaker 4 (17:25):
Thank you, Mike. Twenty seven after twelve. You're with the
country brought to you by brandt Our Pole is going great. Guns.
Can't believe the response of us. So the poll on
five six, that's our text number was Winston getting better
with age? You write better? Or has he passed it past?
And Michelle wat producer, You've been analyzing these and it
(17:50):
doesn't take much analytics. Every single respondent to the poll.
There must be about forty something at the moment i'd
say have said better.
Speaker 3 (18:00):
Yeah, there's a round forty ish tex set that came
in pretty much straight away and really amazing, isn't it
Just shows Winston, you know, he's really putting himself out
there and people are really backing him. And it could be,
you know, this year could be the change, couldn't it.
Speaker 4 (18:12):
Although there was one rather disparaging text and from Blackie
in Towering U. You're pasted it Jamie, not Winston. And
I'm thinking immediately Detective Inspector Peter Blackwell giving it to
his old mate. It's another Blackie. I won't mention his name.
Very harsh comment.
Speaker 2 (18:29):
There's always you might be right, though you might be
right Blackie Winston though interesting, he'll be eighty as I said,
on April the eleventh this year.
Speaker 4 (18:41):
Yeah, I personally myself, I reckon he's getting better with age.
Now we're playing music today from people who are older
than Winston and Trump. This is McJagger of course up
front for the Rolling Stones eighty one, not out up
next Gen Corkoran out of Rabobank.
Speaker 2 (19:05):
Live up on my Maga.
Speaker 4 (19:09):
I see a little pre are you. Jen Corkran is
out of Rabobanks, HQ and Hamilton the Tron. She's a
senior animal protein analyst and Brackets. She's their red meat specialist.
Now we're talking about of red meat on the show.
This week, Jen, We've had Tom Yang on from the
industry from AFCO. I want to get your take, especially
on Trump and tariffs and red meat. Good afternoon, Hi Jamie.
Speaker 6 (19:33):
Happy twenty twenty five to you.
Speaker 4 (19:35):
Well, it's been a happy twenty twenty five for a
lot of sheep and beef farmers in terms of meat prices.
You heard Tom Yng say record beef prices. But I
think the really pleasing thing, Jen Corkran has been the
fact that the sheep farmers are getting a bit of
a break at last.
Speaker 6 (19:52):
It lasts as an understatement, isn't it. It's been such
a tough it's been eighteen months, two years. And I
was just having a look data for Lamb this morning
and it's you know, we were sitting less than six
dollars for kerre low for Lamb this time last year,
and we just didn't know when to expect to see
that to start to uptick, and we sort of called
(20:14):
perhaps the end of the year, hopefully, And it's good
that we're seeing that. And the great news is, you
know that the pricing trends are holding a lot higher
than what a lot of people predicted, as Tom said
also this week, but also that the fundamentals for Lamb
are actually looking a lot more positive going into the
next two years. And that's good news for the price
perhaps staying above that five year average versus sitting well
(20:37):
below it as it was last year.
Speaker 4 (20:38):
Obviously, Lamb, beef, dairy, all of our exports at the
moment are being helped by a low dollar. We got
as low as US fifty five cents. Interestingly, we've had
a wee bit of a jump since the Trump inauguration.
We're up at fifty six and a half or just
under fifty seven US since when I had a look
a wee bit earlier this morning, but that is obviously
(21:00):
good news for the exporters.
Speaker 6 (21:03):
Really good news, and it's helping things along. But the
exciting thing is also that some of you know, the
fundamentals around export demand for lamb is also improving.
Speaker 7 (21:15):
And what we saw in.
Speaker 6 (21:16):
The twenty twenty four wash up is that the export
pie for lambs has sort of changed shape a little
bit and it's looking a little more positive in terms
of that diversity of markets. Now, the big one that
shifted is and we've talked about this on the show before,
but the European and UK markets pretty much because they've
got fewer sheep locally and they have seen the bergaptick
(21:39):
in our imports. And also China is taking up less
of the pie because of that, so that's helping as
well as well as the dollar. And the third thing
that's going to really help, I think with cheap meat
prices this year is their Australian cheap numbers and talking
to my colleague and oh there he can confirm all
of this through his own forecast and what they've been
(21:59):
seeing and slaughter numbers, and it's really good news from
a competition perspective, not that it could have been much worse.
You know, last year we saw they saw record lamb
slaughter numbers and that basically just caused huge competition in the.
Speaker 7 (22:14):
Market for our exports.
Speaker 6 (22:15):
Right, So what we're also seeing is record mutton production recently,
so that also sort of bodes well for the amount
of lambs that will be coming out of use over
the next couple of three years, which is going to drop.
So we are sort of forecasting a drop off and
ausy slaughter numbers for lamb, which is going to reduce
that competition piece as well as you know, continue good
(22:36):
to manage to some of these other markets outside of
China for lamb. So good news for lambs finishes.
Speaker 8 (22:42):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (22:42):
Well, it's also jen a bit of a supply and
demand story. We know that there's going to be a
million less lambs, may be more available for slaughter.
Speaker 6 (22:51):
Yeah, and that's another part of it, right, So, you know,
a million less lambs. And if we look at the
numbers in the first twelve weeks of the twenty four
twenty five export season, which starts on the first of October.
Speaker 7 (23:03):
So if we look at.
Speaker 6 (23:03):
That first twelve weeks, lambs slought is actually up in
the North Island by thirteen percent, but down nineteen percent
in the South, so it might be a tale of
two islands. And obviously we know most lambs are in
the South Island too, right, So total sort of numbers
sitting at four point two million for that first twelve
weeks and that's five percent down on the same weeks
of last year. So we're expecting to see this then
(23:26):
continue in fewer lambs in New Zealand as well. Is
going to create you know, some challenge, I guess as well,
but it could be good news in terms of the
pricing holding up just a little bit, especially when we
need lamps coming in for exook markets.
Speaker 4 (23:41):
Now, I love chatting to your global economists out of Rabobank,
especially that alarmist Michael every I must get him on.
He's always so entertaining and been picked an out out
of Australia.
Speaker 2 (23:52):
There.
Speaker 4 (23:52):
What are these guys saying about the Trump tariff situation
and how that plays out for New Zealand.
Speaker 6 (24:00):
So this is certainly a big watching point. And if
we're just talking about red meat here, you know, like
volatility on a global level with trade is going to
be a theme we believe of twenty twenty five. Now,
the stuff these guys have got to say on this
topic is really fascinating. But I think the big one
really is it's a watching point at the stage because
(24:20):
it's very hard to know what mister Trump two point
zero arriving in office yesterday is going to do. And
you know, some of the things we're watching in RABO
researchers around you know, the retaliatory effects of trade changes
that Trump perhaps might end up in playing with some
of these tariffs, and we just don't know if that's
(24:42):
going to happen yet, So it's really a big watching point.
The good news, I think, you know, in our opinion
for red meat is that people still are going to
meet their hamburgers in the US, right, So we just
have to keep an eye on the fact that they're
going to still perhaps be requiring red meat, especially with
the very slowly build of the herd over there. So
(25:05):
you know, it's the watching point and I think it'll
be interesting to see what happens, and then perhaps the
scenarios will be what reteltory effects we see in New
Zealand as an effect of that.
Speaker 4 (25:17):
Hey, Jen corkran out of Rabobank out of Hamilton. Thanks
for your time. I hope you get some rain because
I know you didn't get much out of this system
in the White Catto. It's getting a bit dry. Good luck.
Speaker 6 (25:28):
Thanks Jamie.
Speaker 4 (25:30):
Jen corkran out of Rabobank. Yeah, we're going to go
to Gisbon, where I think they've had a bit of
rain recently. Sandra Matthews, head head of Rural Woman and
zed Rowena Duncan before the end of the hour. But
up next it's Michelle Watt with the latest and rural news.
We'll have sports news for you. This is one of
my favorite artists, Theon Warwick Great Lover. She's eighty four.
(25:54):
Makes Winston looked like a pup, doesn't she?
Speaker 2 (25:57):
Oh nice, Lina News you want to be alone.
Speaker 4 (26:06):
Today's musical thing artists who are older than Winston and
Trump Tom Jones eighty three not out his Michelle Watt
with the latest and rural news to.
Speaker 1 (26:18):
The country's world news with Coup Cadet, New Zealand's leading
right on lawn Bower brand visit steel for dot co
dot insaid for your local stockers.
Speaker 4 (26:27):
Actually, just before you get into the rural news, as
anyone said, Winston's past it Yet we've never done a
poll on in anything where you get one hundred percent agreement.
Speaker 3 (26:36):
Not yet that I can say. I have to go
do a further comb through. But most of them are
in support. Most people are saying him for prime minister.
But I mean, how much longer before he retires?
Speaker 4 (26:44):
Do you think you'll never retire?
Speaker 3 (26:46):
Hang on your.
Speaker 4 (26:47):
Ackond politics is his hobby instead of going golfing. Hedio's
politics right? What's on rural news?
Speaker 3 (26:51):
Okay, rural news today? The Foundation for Arable Research is
urging mays and sweet corn growers to scout their crops
after evidence that full army were in Populations are two
to three weeks more advanced than they were at this
stage in previous seasons. Actively scouting crops and monitoring for
any signs of full army were in presence allows grower's
time to assess infant stations and consider numbers in terms
(27:13):
of economic damage and treatment thresholds. And you can find
more rural news at the country dot co dot NZ.
Speaker 1 (27:20):
Sport with AVCO Kiwi to the bone since nineteen oh four.
Speaker 4 (27:25):
Controversial former football Ferns coach a Yittka Klimkova has bounced
back from a mysterious parting of the ways with New
Zealand football. She's just been announced as the new head
coach of the Czech national team, and Liverpool remains on
course for top spot on the Champions League League group
(27:45):
stage with a two to one win over leel at
Anfield Barcelona, Buffa Barcelona. I better get that right, You've
got to say it with the lisp. Prevailed in a
nine goal thriller against Benfica in Lisbon, winning five to
four to stay second in the group standings. And how
good just to comment from me is the Australian Open.
(28:07):
I watched Sablenka last night, tried to stay up for
Djokovic against al Karez, saw the beginning of it, but
it was going to go far too late. A great
game of tennis. It's rarely starting to warm up in Melbourne,
quite literally. Right up next it is Gisbone Sandra Matthews,
head of she's the well, she's got two jobs. I
(28:31):
think she's the chair and the new national President of
Rural Women New Zealand.
Speaker 1 (28:37):
It's not unusual.
Speaker 4 (28:47):
Jem Okay, welcome back to the country. Sorry about that,
(29:14):
Just trying to track down Sandra Matthews, just trying to
track down Sandra Matthews and grisban. I hope we've got
a koday, Sandra. Are you there, hy?
Speaker 8 (29:23):
Jamie? How you doing?
Speaker 4 (29:24):
Sorry about that? I got you confused with Paul McCartney.
We're playing songs from people who are older than Trump
and Winston and Paul McCartney's eighty two still going strong.
Speaker 8 (29:34):
Wow, you wouldn't think so we do you hit eighty two?
He's still going yeah.
Speaker 4 (29:38):
Well, let's hope we can all get there now. I
think I rather facetiously called you Donald Trump at the
end of last year when you still held two jobs
at Rural wom New Zealand. I think you were elected
the new president but you were remaining as the chair.
Have you still got two jobs?
Speaker 5 (29:56):
No?
Speaker 8 (29:57):
Just the one, Jamie. So I'm the National President of
Rural Rural Women in New Zealand now and elected at
the end of November twenty four.
Speaker 4 (30:04):
So what are Rural Women New Zealand up to at
the moment, Sandra? What's on your plate for twenty five
coming up?
Speaker 5 (30:11):
Yeah?
Speaker 8 (30:11):
Twenty five is going to be a big year for
rural Women New Zealand. It is one hundred years since
Rural Women was first founded in nineteen twenty five sixteen
women who were farmer's wives, and they are attending a
conference of the Farmers Union, the Men's Farmers Union back
in those days in Wellington, had a few meetings together
(30:32):
and shared experiences and decided, hey, we will put a
women's organization together. So they founded the Women's Division of
the Farmer's Union. So this year rural women around the
country are organizing events. So there's forty events planned right
around New Zealand and it's going to be a very
exciting year for rural women New Zealand.
Speaker 4 (30:52):
Good on you. You're also a sheep and beef farmer
when you're at home, and I mean that with due
respect because you're a very woman. You've got a finger
and a lot of sort of governance pies around the place.
But you and your husband in run to Copai. I
hope I got that right station over five hundred hec
there's sheep and beef farm. I've been lucky enough to
(31:13):
have been there for a field day. Once upon a time.
You were very dry heading into Christmas. That's all past tense.
Speaker 5 (31:20):
Now we were.
Speaker 8 (31:22):
Dry, Jamie. It was starting to get a little bit
scary to see the truth, and a few drought meetings
were sort of being held. But since Christmas and for
a lot of on the East coast, we received really
good rain. I think there's about one hundred and eighty
meals where we were wiral on places like that. Over
had over three hundred. The last few days we've had
an easterly which is a bit of cruddy sort of weather,
(31:45):
but a drizzle and things, so we've only had about
ten mills. But yeah, it's the farm's looking at picture
the know how the land is coming back after cyclone
cyclone Gabriel. It's starting to walk a bit better, not
as scary when you sort of go out on farm.
There's a good clothes of growth around the farm now too.
We're just in the process of finishing off our trekking
(32:07):
and cleaning out the dams. We're just about done, and
we're just about to now dearfense the q E two
block that we were going to do when Gabriel came through.
So Ana and I are feeling pretty good at the
moment around Chakopai and around the region around this district anyway,
So yeah, it's looking good and positive. Going into the
(32:27):
twenty twenty five years.
Speaker 4 (32:29):
Yeah, and wall A side, even though it's on the improve,
it's still got a long way to go. But Waller side,
things are looking better for sheep and beef farmers.
Speaker 8 (32:37):
They are. You know, we've even our lambs this year,
the last lot of lambs that we've been getting off.
You know, there are another one two kilos heavier than
what they've been in the previous year, and the prices
are up, so you know, when it comes to the
old kill sheet comes through, my husband's got a very
big smile on his face, and you know, things are
looking up for us. So all the last couple of
(32:57):
years that have been really tough in the sheep and
beef industry, it's starting to look like this light at
the end of the tunnel. So we're pretty excited about
the future.
Speaker 4 (33:04):
Well, I'm good on you because I know you've been
through hell and back, really, you guys on the East
Coast with Gabrielle, and the fact that a couple of
years on, because it is almost a couple of years on,
you're still talking about doing repairs.
Speaker 8 (33:18):
Yeah, And I think that's one thing if I can
really say to remember that there's still people out there
repairing their farms, their houses, their properties. It's a long
term game, but really it's been positive about the future
and keeps you positive and talk to people around you.
I always say that I think when I talk to you, Jamie,
talk to the people around you. Talk to the people
that can help if you need someone to talk to.
Speaker 4 (33:39):
Well, I love talking to you because you're such a
positive person. Thank you very much. Sandra Matthews, National President
of Rural Women in New Zealand. Right, we're going to
take a break. Paul McCartney and Jet when he went
with Ueens got a talented bunch of musicians. The peoples
were Ringo Paul McCartney's eighty two, Ringo eighty four, Me
(34:01):
and Michelle and Michelle and I reckon. George Harrison was
the youngest beetle no longer with us up next to
Rowena Duncom.
Speaker 5 (34:19):
Just cave where to get on.
Speaker 4 (34:20):
The road again playing songs from artists who are older
than Winston and Donald Trump, Willie Nelson a lot older
ninety one years of age on the road again. That's
apped for our next and final guests for today. Rowena
Duncomb back up host here on the country. She's gone
to the big smoke of Auckland, but she'll always be
a country girl. Rowena, you're going to be back on
(34:43):
the road again. You're taking a farming tour to Australia.
I think you've got two spots left.
Speaker 9 (34:48):
Yeah, indeed, so this is a with zest for travel.
It's looking at out that Queensland. I'm so excited, Jamie,
it's going to be amazing. Looking at the Australian Stockman's
Hall of Fame, Looking at a state that's got one
hundred and forty kilometers of exclusion fence to enable them
to bring marinos back into their business. Looking at dar
River down Station, five fifty five thousand acres one hundred
(35:12):
and thirty five thousand sheep, home to Queensland's first wool scour.
There's farm stays and out back date farm. Looking at
the Roma Sale Yards, which is Australia's largest cattle selling center.
And I love this one in particular, the newly opened
Western Queensland Spirit Distillery. You know that's a wee bit
of me as well. So yeah, as you say there's
(35:33):
a couple of spots left, was actually extended that we
can now go to twenty eight people, so it's eleven
nine ninety five per Poson twin share, there are single
options available with a small surcharge. It's your flights from
New Zealand to Australia and back, your flights within Australia,
your accommodation, ten breakfast, seven lunches, eight dinners in my
(35:54):
company for eleven days, and out back Queensland houses.
Speaker 4 (35:57):
Again, well, it can't doesn't get much better than that.
You won't even have to bring your wallet and I
know that. I think Shane mcmanaway has been involved in
some of these farm visits, so it is going to
be a cracker if you're interested in that, Just quickly,
what do you do?
Speaker 5 (36:09):
Yeah?
Speaker 9 (36:10):
This number four travel website or just flick us a
text on five double O nine and I'll send you
the link.
Speaker 5 (36:16):
Now.
Speaker 4 (36:16):
Occasionally, when you're not swinding about New Zealand or overseas,
you do do a wee bit of work, especially when
I'm swaning about. Are you been working or you've just
released You've just dropped a podcast? How cool does that sound?
You've just dropped a podcast with Beef and Lamb New Zealand.
What's it about?
Speaker 9 (36:32):
Yes, it's about facial x men, nasty costly disease that
obviously affected New Zealand livestock farmers for over one hundred years.
As things warm up, it's becoming more widespread around the country.
So it cols our economy three hundred and thirty two
million dollars annually. So, as you say, I've turned out
with Beef and Lamb New Zealand a new four part
podcast series looking at key aspects of their Eliminating Facial
(36:56):
Xma Impacts program. It's a seven year programot collaboration between
Beef and Lamb and MPI contributions from farmers and industry experts.
So in this episode, which has just dropped, as you say, Jamie,
I'm joined by Becky Diamond, Senior Advisor Farmer Engagement and
Partnerships at Beef and Lamb New Zealand, and we look
at the economics, social, and welbing impacts of facial XMA
(37:19):
because it goes beyond, you know, just one impact, and
we look at the key drivers behind all of their
work into facial XMA. The podcast is called Eliminating Facial
Xmas Impacts. You'll find it on the country's podcast stream
wherever you get your podcasts and it's also pinned to
the top of our Facebook page or it will be
very shortly.
Speaker 4 (37:37):
When I do that, and really quickly. I was remissing
me yesterday not to mention this. Jamie Skiffington close but
no cigar. I've got like twenty seconds.
Speaker 9 (37:45):
Tremendous effort from Jamie. A lot of work went into
it was ten short going into the final run. Pulled
the pin, but you know he said he will be
back and he's just so grateful for all the support
from everyone.
Speaker 4 (37:57):
Well, what a great all round and what a great
athletea is Rowena Duncan there drop us a text on
five double O nine if you'd like to go on
that ossy outback tour with her. That's us done and
dusted tomorrow on the show Christopher Luxen for the first
time in twenty five see you then.
Speaker 1 (38:16):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to Frent You're specialist in
John Deere construction equipment
Catch You're the latest from the land. It's The Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to Brent, You're specialist in
John Deere machinery.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
You go, Maggie, Thank God God Sumer save you. It's
late September. Our REALSI being back at school.
Speaker 3 (00:27):
Ador she be a mute.
Speaker 4 (00:31):
Beer good an Good afternoon, New Zealand. I'm Jamie McKay.
This is the Country brought to you by Brandt. Earlier
this morning, I caught up with Winston Peters and we
talked about age. Do you realize when he's turning eighty
on April the eleventh of this year. Donald Trump, of
(00:52):
course seventy eight? What is it about aging politicians? So
we thought our musical theme today would be its musician singers,
performers who are older than Winston and Trump. Kicking it
off with rocking Rod Stewart, who's just celebrated his eightieth birthday.
Also going to catch up with Mike McIntyre, head of
(01:13):
for Jardin's head of Commodities. Really good GDT auction result overnight.
The headline number is one point four, but the real
key number is whole milk powder up up five percent?
Does this lock in Fonterra's ten dollar milk price. We're
going to talk red meat and the improving prospects or
and the improving prospects for red meat with Gen Corchran
(01:36):
out of Rabobanks, Hamilton office. Sandra Matthews is the head
of Rural Women and z She's based just out of Gisbon.
They're getting a bit of rain there, North Island getting
a bit dry and Rowena Duncan back up host of
course here on the Country. Her latest podcast with Beef
and Lamb New Zealand's very interesting. Plus row I love
a daily hard dog to keep on the porch. Is
(01:58):
off to Australia and May on a farming tour. She's
got some great farms lined up and will tell you
how you can join her. It's all on the country
between now and or one o'clock. Kicking it off with
Winston next Western Senior Friends for the first time in
(02:25):
twenty twenty five, Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters. I won't
be able to say that after May. We'll come back
to that one. But Winston, what is it about you
old guys? In politics? Trump's seventy eight, you're seventy nine.
Some people are saying. In fact, a couple of golfers
mentioned to me at Cromwell in the weekend that you're
getting better with age.
Speaker 5 (02:46):
Well, this is not a cheese ad, but the reality
is the people have been very, very successful and much
older of the age in their life, such as Warren
Buffett Man. I mean, he was going at eighty nine
to ninety still leading one of the world's the greatest
funds organizations. His aid was four years older than him
(03:08):
and was doing the same. Then you've got Mahatiir, the
Prime Minister of Malaysia, You've got Rod Stewart, the rock stars,
Mick Jagger. It's a matter of attitude actually, and donate
your age is a good piece of advice for old people.
Speaker 4 (03:19):
Yeah, mind you look at Joe Biden. He hasn't aged
that well.
Speaker 5 (03:23):
Yeah, but a lot of people get that sort of
condition much earlier anyway, and that's a sad situation. A
lot of it, my view is treatable. A lot of it.
My view is to do with diet, the right diet,
and that's rather important. The more people see about that,
the more they should pay attention to.
Speaker 4 (03:37):
We'll hang on, aren't you infamous for the late night
whiskies and the cigarettes.
Speaker 5 (03:43):
Well, what's that got to do with somebody's health?
Speaker 4 (03:46):
Well, probably mean a lot of people would say that's
not good for your health.
Speaker 5 (03:50):
And also it's bull dust. I mean, does a die
look like somebody has been out late night all the
time on whiskey. Just have a good hard looker. The
evidence doesn't say that, you see. But that's not what
my burnans alike. The fact, Madge, is that they're so
pristine or puran. No, they'd get drunk on a wine
biscuit made. That's the trouble that you've You've got not
enough people in part with any character.
Speaker 4 (04:11):
Well, you can't be accused of not having that. You're
the Deputy Prime Minister J. D. Vance as the new
Vice President of the United States of America. I hear
that you messaged a meuse today.
Speaker 5 (04:22):
Yes, I didn't funny enough. You know, you got all
these darmn trolls are saying, why don't you message Trump?
I mean, it's appalling the ignorance of some of these
people in the social media. And the answer is, of
course he is the president and I'm not the President
of New Zealand. And that context on the Vice president
and that's why I'm calling up Trump, and that's why
I'm calling up Dad e Vance and that's why I'm
calling up Amar Rubio. The foreigners. That's the answer to that.
(04:45):
And please don't show your ignorance. But that's why it
is that the people say, oh, he doesn't know what
he's doing. He didn't even congratulate Trump. This is extraordinary.
Speaker 4 (04:56):
Well, I guess Trump his in box might have been
follow anyhow, Look, you're notoriously pro America. Can we I
asked this of Todd McLay yesterday, our Trade minister, UF
foreign minister. Can we sort of cut some sweetheart deal
with the Americans?
Speaker 5 (05:10):
You reckon the circumstances we are facing, are you know,
difficult given their Trump view on tariffs? However, that we
start with some advantages and our obligations to exploit those
to the maximum.
Speaker 4 (05:29):
Does Trump's talk on tariffs just bluster or is it
a negotiating tool.
Speaker 5 (05:35):
It's not blustered. It's a serious belief that they've lost
so much of their business to other countries because of
the failure of having tariffs. Now you get all these
three market ares to screen from the roof. This is
a bad idea. This is not not would be happening,
but it's the reality. We have to deal with the
United States. Bear in minor course, the money. In eighty
four eighty five, we threw open our door without any tariffs,
(05:58):
without any barriers at all, to the world, thinking that
they're all rushed to deal with us, and they didn't.
You see what I mean. But you still had the economists,
we still had half of the media all screaming out,
this is fantastic, this is wonderful. Well, the alst of
reality is that it wasn't wonderful. And the eco economic
decline since that time, there is that. But you can't
often get any common sense out of people when they
(06:20):
have a prejudice about where they stand. So here we come.
We've got to get into America's here and tell them
and get them to reason why we should not be
applied that in our case. And in one way it's
very very very clear why not, because the balance of
trade massively favors the United States in our case, not
the other way around.
Speaker 4 (06:41):
Well, Well, lucky Trump loves hamburgers and they need manufacturing
beef for their hamburgers.
Speaker 6 (06:46):
Putting on your.
Speaker 4 (06:47):
Foreign minister's hat, could Trump and this is crystal ball,
guys think admittedly, but I'm wondering whether he could be
a peacemaker on the world stage. He's talking about peace
through military strength. I reckon he's just gonna scare the
be Jesus out of the likes of Iran and maybe
even Putin.
Speaker 5 (07:05):
But he's already done that in the case of Gaza.
Have no doubts at all that as Ms made it
very clear in the Middle East that this matter had
to be settled and settled now that's why we've got
the might. It might be flimsy, but we've got a
truce now in Gaza. The other reality is, of course,
that he has made a very clear pastimes where they stand,
(07:27):
and I think we'll do much better in the sense
of people knowing that how should I said it? When
you've put uncertainty, then certain lyders tend to pare themselves
far better than the calculations of taking actions and there'll
be no consequences. There are numerous examples in the last
four years where there were stiffs taken by Dridden and
(07:48):
other people who I don't believe had been taking the
Trump it had been in power, but I couldn't say
at the time because we at the time we were
dealing with the different regime. They did gigim. But the
truth is that water breaking out here, there and everywhere,
and sad to say, and I don't think there would
have had ended in a different circumstance. And I think
(08:11):
Biden's situation was rather sad ready we can sad now,
but I don't believe that we should have had to
What's that very sad circumstance. And I think the Democrats
over a period of time in history will seriously regret
how they badly handle this issue.
Speaker 4 (08:32):
Yep, they've only got themselves to blame.
Speaker 2 (08:33):
Now.
Speaker 4 (08:34):
I know you're a bit like your old mate Boulger,
Jim Bolger, who said, bugger the polls. But the latest
Taxpayers Union Carrier poll has New Zealand first at eight
point one percent, up two point seven percent. The Nats
are leaking and you're the beneficiary.
Speaker 5 (08:53):
Well, I don't believe that. I think we're going to
keep on rising. And we have our strategy of the plan,
and we said in twenty twenty five we're going to
keep on going up in the pulse. And when I
say the polls, I mean our ones, not theirs because
these polses are so loose. There's one out just yesterday
called Roy Morgan. Now there's appalling pole. The differences as
something like thirteen and forteen percent between these two poles,
(09:16):
and that in any academic environment, it's just unaccepable. And
it's why is it the museum we listen and hear
and pay attention to these people when their record on
polling is so so so bad.
Speaker 4 (09:29):
Why do I get the feeling final question for you
that you're going to hate handing the Deputy prime minister's
job over in May to your nemesis David Seymour, Because
to give you credit, you've been very statesmanlike as a
Foreign minister and generally been well received as a Deputy
Prime minister. You're gonna have a word to see more
and say, hey, look I'm doing a pretty good job here, pal,
Just leave me in the seat. Now.
Speaker 5 (09:51):
You don't enter agreements and then break your word. I've
been an agreement and after agreement after agreement, and you
can't try and ask Alen Clark or involved with it.
I've ever broken my word, but others have, for which
I find them and their behavior unforgivable.
Speaker 4 (10:06):
Winston Peter's always good to chat on the country. Thanks
for making yourself available.
Speaker 5 (10:11):
Thank you cheers.
Speaker 4 (10:14):
Yes, something I prepared to weave it earlier this morning
when the Deputy Prime Minister was available, Winston Peters, we
talked about age poles. I'm going to do an age
poll with you lot our text numbers five double oh nine. Okay,
you've got two options. I'll even see if I can
come up with some sort of price. Here's your options,
Winston Peters. Is he getting better with age? Just write better?
(10:37):
Or has he passed it? Just write past. We'll do
an unofficial pole here on the country. Up next, out
of Jardin. He's the head of Commodities. Mike McIntyre A
guy I use lean on a lot for information, especially
around global dairy trade options and milk pay milk prices
and payouts. Okay, so we had a good global dairy
(11:00):
trade auction overnight. Does that lock in the ten dollars?
We'll ask him next. Jen Cochran at a Rabobank talking
red meat, Sandra Matthew's Rural Women, New Zealand and Rowena.
You want to go to Australia with Rowena on a
farming tour. She's got some great farms lined up all that.
Before the end of the hour. Michelle will be in
here of course with rural news and will update sport
(11:21):
for you as well. A good global dairy trade auction
overnight up one point four percent, but the headline number
(11:45):
for me was whole milk powder up five percent. To
tell us more, Jardin head of commodities. I think he
used to be head of derivatives. Everyone changes their name
titles these days. Mike McIntire, Mike, good afternoon. Great to
have you on the country for the first time in
twenty twenty five. This is a good result.
Speaker 7 (12:02):
Yeah, afternoon, Jamie and Havy new year. Fantastic result. You know,
I was just saying to you off here that you know,
when I look at GDT, that homwalk pattern number is
the one I concentrate on. It makes up close to
two thirds of the milk price, and seeing it up
five percent, you know, you can almost ignore everything else
that comes after it. You know, I think it's a
really good result.
Speaker 4 (12:22):
Why was anhydrous milk fat down seven point eight percent?
Because this was the number that really skewed that overall
GDT number down.
Speaker 7 (12:31):
It did in hydrous milk fat, which is basically you know,
fresh cream in its exportable form, a limited market, so
the buyers on GDT it's renowned for having an an
elastic demand pool, and so if you add additional volume
back on, like we've seen over the last couple of months,
there's typically a response. It's been fairly muted with the
(12:52):
additional volumes being added on in recent times. But obviously
that was a straw that broke the camel's back last night,
and as a result the prices fell quite significantly.
Speaker 4 (13:01):
Skim milk powder up two percent, butter up two point
two percent. There was thought of some of the fats
dropping down, cheese up two point eight percent as well.
So look, a really good result. Does this sort of
lock and place Fonterra's ten bucks?
Speaker 7 (13:16):
I think so, you know, I think the current year
is pretty much almost now in the redview mirror in
terms of risk to the to the downside. So we're
almost now focusing on that twenty sixth season. You know
what's going on. You know, what sort of shape are
we going to be once we once we hit that
opening milk price guidance at the end of May. You know,
as I said, to you again. Previously I thought it
(13:38):
was a really good result, and you know, we've had
a definite pivot from where we were at the start
of December. The fundamentals were staying to look a little mucky.
I mean, obviously, New Zim production has been very strong
throughout the year, a record in terms of calendar year,
and then you know, Chinese demand was starting to slip
and as a result, you know, there was some concern
(13:58):
about the later part of the season, which I think,
you know, given what's happened with global supplying, I think
some of those fears have been alleviated now.
Speaker 4 (14:05):
Well, the Chinese were back into it last night.
Speaker 7 (14:08):
They're not at the same sort of levels as what
they were a couple of seasons ago, so I think
it was just shy of forty percent they bought overall.
But again it's sign of a healthier market when you've
see these other regions contribute. You know, good demand from
the Middle East, good demand from Southeast Asia as you'd expect,
but then again good demand from Europe, and you know
that's possibly related to the early outbreak of this foot
(14:30):
of mouth disease and fears about whether that becomes more
ingrained as I said, you know, it's great to see
some good, healthy markets by having contributions from Wall and Sundry.
Speaker 4 (14:40):
I always talk about my little man sitting in a
Beijing office, probably a Windows Beijing office, and a sole
job is to monitor the New Zealand's climate. Will he
be getting a wee bit worried about a drying North Island?
Speaker 7 (14:55):
I think so. You know, if you have a look
at I mean, obviously the maps are available for all
to see, and so if you have a look at
the neighbor of moisture maps, now you know you can
certainly see from Taranaki east across the central Plateau. And
you know, for those of us in market, we can
set ourselves firsthand and it's done that spread north through
into the y Kaddow. I think farmers have had plenty
(15:16):
of feet on hand, and I think they'll do everything
they can to try and hold that production through to
the end of the year. But in terms of yes,
as far as offshore looking at maps, I'd certainly be
nervous about what sort of production concerns who were going
to be out of New Zealand given what's happening in
the rest of the world. You know, We've got the
Avian flu in California and the impact of that's been
worse than what we initially expected. You know, blue tang
(15:37):
already has played a big part in European production. We've
seen the environmental impact of reduced supply in places like Ireland,
in the Netherlands, and now you know, throwing in the
threat of foot of mouth and that part of the
world also. And you know, if I were sitting there
and I to procurement plan, I'll be making sure that
I bought product while it was still available.
Speaker 4 (15:57):
And we've also got Donald J. Trump. What does Jardine's
call on this with, you know, regarding Trump and tariffs
and trade.
Speaker 7 (16:05):
Yeah, I don't think we've got an official call on it.
You know, everyone's just sort of watching and waiting. You know,
the tariffs that he's talked about imposing on the first
of February to both Canada and to Mexico. They're obviously
very key dairy markets to the States. I mean, they
export about fourteen fifteen percent what they produce, and I
would say close to half of it goes to those
two markets. So what's the response going to be to
(16:27):
those tariffs that have been imposed by the States. You know,
will it be that they both procure less milk from
the States and provides an opportunity for other markets, or
in turn, does that make some of the milk products
that we send into the likes of mexicome more expensive
when they process and the center back in the state.
So I think it's a really a really it's a
(16:48):
moving feast. At the moment, we're not really sure how
it's going to land. Simply, there's been a lot of
bluster about what was going to be put in place.
The fact that China hasn't had, you know, punitive tariff
put in place right from the outset's probably quite a
good thing for the rest of the world. You know,
we want to see We're a country that relies on trade,
so barriers aren't an ideal for us.
Speaker 4 (17:09):
We wouldn't expect Mike McIntyre out of Jarden. I was
going to say head of Derivatives, but that was so
that was so twenty twenty four. I didn't realize that
you'd upgraded to a head of commodities. It sounds very
good anyhow, always good the chat mate.
Speaker 7 (17:23):
Thanks for Rauch Chamming.
Speaker 4 (17:25):
Thank you, Mike. Twenty seven after twelve. You're with the
country brought to you by brandt Our Pole is going great. Guns.
Can't believe the response of us. So the poll on
five six, that's our text number was Winston getting better
with age? You write better? Or has he passed it past?
And Michelle wat producer, You've been analyzing these and it
(17:50):
doesn't take much analytics. Every single respondent to the poll.
There must be about forty something at the moment i'd
say have said better.
Speaker 3 (18:00):
Yeah, there's a round forty ish tex set that came
in pretty much straight away and really amazing, isn't it
Just shows Winston, you know, he's really putting himself out
there and people are really backing him. And it could be,
you know, this year could be the change, couldn't it.
Speaker 4 (18:12):
Although there was one rather disparaging text and from Blackie
in Towering U. You're pasted it Jamie, not Winston. And
I'm thinking immediately Detective Inspector Peter Blackwell giving it to
his old mate. It's another Blackie. I won't mention his name.
Very harsh comment.
Speaker 2 (18:29):
There's always you might be right, though you might be
right Blackie Winston though interesting, he'll be eighty as I said,
on April the eleventh this year.
Speaker 4 (18:41):
Yeah, I personally myself, I reckon he's getting better with age.
Now we're playing music today from people who are older
than Winston and Trump. This is McJagger of course up
front for the Rolling Stones eighty one, not out up
next Gen Corkoran out of Rabobank.
Speaker 2 (19:05):
Live up on my Maga.
Speaker 4 (19:09):
I see a little pre are you. Jen Corkran is
out of Rabobanks, HQ and Hamilton the Tron. She's a
senior animal protein analyst and Brackets. She's their red meat specialist.
Now we're talking about of red meat on the show.
This week, Jen, We've had Tom Yang on from the
industry from AFCO. I want to get your take, especially
on Trump and tariffs and red meat. Good afternoon, Hi Jamie.
Speaker 6 (19:33):
Happy twenty twenty five to you.
Speaker 4 (19:35):
Well, it's been a happy twenty twenty five for a
lot of sheep and beef farmers in terms of meat prices.
You heard Tom Yng say record beef prices. But I
think the really pleasing thing, Jen Corkran has been the
fact that the sheep farmers are getting a bit of
a break at last.
Speaker 6 (19:52):
It lasts as an understatement, isn't it. It's been such
a tough it's been eighteen months, two years. And I
was just having a look data for Lamb this morning
and it's you know, we were sitting less than six
dollars for kerre low for Lamb this time last year,
and we just didn't know when to expect to see
that to start to uptick, and we sort of called
(20:14):
perhaps the end of the year, hopefully, And it's good
that we're seeing that. And the great news is, you
know that the pricing trends are holding a lot higher
than what a lot of people predicted, as Tom said
also this week, but also that the fundamentals for Lamb
are actually looking a lot more positive going into the
next two years. And that's good news for the price
perhaps staying above that five year average versus sitting well
(20:37):
below it as it was last year.
Speaker 4 (20:38):
Obviously, Lamb, beef, dairy, all of our exports at the
moment are being helped by a low dollar. We got
as low as US fifty five cents. Interestingly, we've had
a wee bit of a jump since the Trump inauguration.
We're up at fifty six and a half or just
under fifty seven US since when I had a look
a wee bit earlier this morning, but that is obviously
(21:00):
good news for the exporters.
Speaker 6 (21:03):
Really good news, and it's helping things along. But the
exciting thing is also that some of you know, the
fundamentals around export demand for lamb is also improving.
Speaker 7 (21:15):
And what we saw in.
Speaker 6 (21:16):
The twenty twenty four wash up is that the export
pie for lambs has sort of changed shape a little
bit and it's looking a little more positive in terms
of that diversity of markets. Now, the big one that
shifted is and we've talked about this on the show before,
but the European and UK markets pretty much because they've
got fewer sheep locally and they have seen the bergaptick
(21:39):
in our imports. And also China is taking up less
of the pie because of that, so that's helping as
well as well as the dollar. And the third thing
that's going to really help, I think with cheap meat
prices this year is their Australian cheap numbers and talking
to my colleague and oh there he can confirm all
of this through his own forecast and what they've been
(21:59):
seeing and slaughter numbers, and it's really good news from
a competition perspective, not that it could have been much worse.
You know, last year we saw they saw record lamb
slaughter numbers and that basically just caused huge competition in the.
Speaker 7 (22:14):
Market for our exports.
Speaker 6 (22:15):
Right, So what we're also seeing is record mutton production recently,
so that also sort of bodes well for the amount
of lambs that will be coming out of use over
the next couple of three years, which is going to drop.
So we are sort of forecasting a drop off and
ausy slaughter numbers for lamb, which is going to reduce
that competition piece as well as you know, continue good
(22:36):
to manage to some of these other markets outside of
China for lamb. So good news for lambs finishes.
Speaker 8 (22:42):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (22:42):
Well, it's also jen a bit of a supply and
demand story. We know that there's going to be a
million less lambs, may be more available for slaughter.
Speaker 6 (22:51):
Yeah, and that's another part of it, right, So, you know,
a million less lambs. And if we look at the
numbers in the first twelve weeks of the twenty four
twenty five export season, which starts on the first of October.
Speaker 7 (23:03):
So if we look at.
Speaker 6 (23:03):
That first twelve weeks, lambs slought is actually up in
the North Island by thirteen percent, but down nineteen percent
in the South, so it might be a tale of
two islands. And obviously we know most lambs are in
the South Island too, right, So total sort of numbers
sitting at four point two million for that first twelve
weeks and that's five percent down on the same weeks
of last year. So we're expecting to see this then
(23:26):
continue in fewer lambs in New Zealand as well. Is
going to create you know, some challenge, I guess as well,
but it could be good news in terms of the
pricing holding up just a little bit, especially when we
need lamps coming in for exook markets.
Speaker 4 (23:41):
Now, I love chatting to your global economists out of Rabobank,
especially that alarmist Michael every I must get him on.
He's always so entertaining and been picked an out out
of Australia.
Speaker 2 (23:52):
There.
Speaker 4 (23:52):
What are these guys saying about the Trump tariff situation
and how that plays out for New Zealand.
Speaker 6 (24:00):
So this is certainly a big watching point. And if
we're just talking about red meat here, you know, like
volatility on a global level with trade is going to
be a theme we believe of twenty twenty five. Now,
the stuff these guys have got to say on this
topic is really fascinating. But I think the big one
really is it's a watching point at the stage because
(24:20):
it's very hard to know what mister Trump two point
zero arriving in office yesterday is going to do. And
you know, some of the things we're watching in RABO
researchers around you know, the retaliatory effects of trade changes
that Trump perhaps might end up in playing with some
of these tariffs, and we just don't know if that's
(24:42):
going to happen yet, So it's really a big watching point.
The good news, I think, you know, in our opinion
for red meat is that people still are going to
meet their hamburgers in the US, right, So we just
have to keep an eye on the fact that they're
going to still perhaps be requiring red meat, especially with
the very slowly build of the herd over there. So
(25:05):
you know, it's the watching point and I think it'll
be interesting to see what happens, and then perhaps the
scenarios will be what reteltory effects we see in New
Zealand as an effect of that.
Speaker 4 (25:17):
Hey, Jen corkran out of Rabobank out of Hamilton. Thanks
for your time. I hope you get some rain because
I know you didn't get much out of this system
in the White Catto. It's getting a bit dry. Good luck.
Speaker 6 (25:28):
Thanks Jamie.
Speaker 4 (25:30):
Jen corkran out of Rabobank. Yeah, we're going to go
to Gisbon, where I think they've had a bit of
rain recently. Sandra Matthews, head head of Rural Woman and
zed Rowena Duncan before the end of the hour. But
up next it's Michelle Watt with the latest and rural news.
We'll have sports news for you. This is one of
my favorite artists, Theon Warwick Great Lover. She's eighty four.
(25:54):
Makes Winston looked like a pup, doesn't she?
Speaker 2 (25:57):
Oh nice, Lina News you want to be alone.
Speaker 4 (26:06):
Today's musical thing artists who are older than Winston and
Trump Tom Jones eighty three not out his Michelle Watt
with the latest and rural news to.
Speaker 1 (26:18):
The country's world news with Coup Cadet, New Zealand's leading
right on lawn Bower brand visit steel for dot co
dot insaid for your local stockers.
Speaker 4 (26:27):
Actually, just before you get into the rural news, as
anyone said, Winston's past it Yet we've never done a
poll on in anything where you get one hundred percent agreement.
Speaker 3 (26:36):
Not yet that I can say. I have to go
do a further comb through. But most of them are
in support. Most people are saying him for prime minister.
But I mean, how much longer before he retires?
Speaker 4 (26:44):
Do you think you'll never retire?
Speaker 3 (26:46):
Hang on your.
Speaker 4 (26:47):
Ackond politics is his hobby instead of going golfing. Hedio's
politics right? What's on rural news?
Speaker 3 (26:51):
Okay, rural news today? The Foundation for Arable Research is
urging mays and sweet corn growers to scout their crops
after evidence that full army were in Populations are two
to three weeks more advanced than they were at this
stage in previous seasons. Actively scouting crops and monitoring for
any signs of full army were in presence allows grower's
time to assess infant stations and consider numbers in terms
(27:13):
of economic damage and treatment thresholds. And you can find
more rural news at the country dot co dot NZ.
Speaker 1 (27:20):
Sport with AVCO Kiwi to the bone since nineteen oh four.
Speaker 4 (27:25):
Controversial former football Ferns coach a Yittka Klimkova has bounced
back from a mysterious parting of the ways with New
Zealand football. She's just been announced as the new head
coach of the Czech national team, and Liverpool remains on
course for top spot on the Champions League League group
(27:45):
stage with a two to one win over leel at
Anfield Barcelona, Buffa Barcelona. I better get that right, You've
got to say it with the lisp. Prevailed in a
nine goal thriller against Benfica in Lisbon, winning five to
four to stay second in the group standings. And how
good just to comment from me is the Australian Open.
(28:07):
I watched Sablenka last night, tried to stay up for
Djokovic against al Karez, saw the beginning of it, but
it was going to go far too late. A great
game of tennis. It's rarely starting to warm up in Melbourne,
quite literally. Right up next it is Gisbone Sandra Matthews,
head of she's the well, she's got two jobs. I
(28:31):
think she's the chair and the new national President of
Rural Women New Zealand.
Speaker 1 (28:37):
It's not unusual.
Speaker 4 (28:47):
Jem Okay, welcome back to the country. Sorry about that,
(29:14):
Just trying to track down Sandra Matthews, just trying to
track down Sandra Matthews and grisban. I hope we've got
a koday, Sandra. Are you there, hy?
Speaker 8 (29:23):
Jamie? How you doing?
Speaker 4 (29:24):
Sorry about that? I got you confused with Paul McCartney.
We're playing songs from people who are older than Trump
and Winston and Paul McCartney's eighty two still going strong.
Speaker 8 (29:34):
Wow, you wouldn't think so we do you hit eighty two?
He's still going yeah.
Speaker 4 (29:38):
Well, let's hope we can all get there now. I
think I rather facetiously called you Donald Trump at the
end of last year when you still held two jobs
at Rural wom New Zealand. I think you were elected
the new president but you were remaining as the chair.
Have you still got two jobs?
Speaker 5 (29:56):
No?
Speaker 8 (29:57):
Just the one, Jamie. So I'm the National President of
Rural Rural Women in New Zealand now and elected at
the end of November twenty four.
Speaker 4 (30:04):
So what are Rural Women New Zealand up to at
the moment, Sandra? What's on your plate for twenty five
coming up?
Speaker 5 (30:11):
Yeah?
Speaker 8 (30:11):
Twenty five is going to be a big year for
rural Women New Zealand. It is one hundred years since
Rural Women was first founded in nineteen twenty five sixteen
women who were farmer's wives, and they are attending a
conference of the Farmers Union, the Men's Farmers Union back
in those days in Wellington, had a few meetings together
(30:32):
and shared experiences and decided, hey, we will put a
women's organization together. So they founded the Women's Division of
the Farmer's Union. So this year rural women around the
country are organizing events. So there's forty events planned right
around New Zealand and it's going to be a very
exciting year for rural women New Zealand.
Speaker 4 (30:52):
Good on you. You're also a sheep and beef farmer
when you're at home, and I mean that with due
respect because you're a very woman. You've got a finger
and a lot of sort of governance pies around the place.
But you and your husband in run to Copai. I
hope I got that right station over five hundred hec
there's sheep and beef farm. I've been lucky enough to
(31:13):
have been there for a field day. Once upon a time.
You were very dry heading into Christmas. That's all past tense.
Speaker 5 (31:20):
Now we were.
Speaker 8 (31:22):
Dry, Jamie. It was starting to get a little bit
scary to see the truth, and a few drought meetings
were sort of being held. But since Christmas and for
a lot of on the East coast, we received really
good rain. I think there's about one hundred and eighty
meals where we were wiral on places like that. Over
had over three hundred. The last few days we've had
an easterly which is a bit of cruddy sort of weather,
(31:45):
but a drizzle and things, so we've only had about
ten mills. But yeah, it's the farm's looking at picture
the know how the land is coming back after cyclone
cyclone Gabriel. It's starting to walk a bit better, not
as scary when you sort of go out on farm.
There's a good clothes of growth around the farm now too.
We're just in the process of finishing off our trekking
(32:07):
and cleaning out the dams. We're just about done, and
we're just about to now dearfense the q E two
block that we were going to do when Gabriel came through.
So Ana and I are feeling pretty good at the
moment around Chakopai and around the region around this district anyway,
So yeah, it's looking good and positive. Going into the
(32:27):
twenty twenty five years.
Speaker 4 (32:29):
Yeah, and wall A side, even though it's on the improve,
it's still got a long way to go. But Waller side,
things are looking better for sheep and beef farmers.
Speaker 8 (32:37):
They are. You know, we've even our lambs this year,
the last lot of lambs that we've been getting off.
You know, there are another one two kilos heavier than
what they've been in the previous year, and the prices
are up, so you know, when it comes to the
old kill sheet comes through, my husband's got a very
big smile on his face, and you know, things are
looking up for us. So all the last couple of
(32:57):
years that have been really tough in the sheep and
beef industry, it's starting to look like this light at
the end of the tunnel. So we're pretty excited about
the future.
Speaker 4 (33:04):
Well, I'm good on you because I know you've been
through hell and back, really, you guys on the East
Coast with Gabrielle, and the fact that a couple of
years on, because it is almost a couple of years on,
you're still talking about doing repairs.
Speaker 8 (33:18):
Yeah, And I think that's one thing if I can
really say to remember that there's still people out there
repairing their farms, their houses, their properties. It's a long
term game, but really it's been positive about the future
and keeps you positive and talk to people around you.
I always say that I think when I talk to you, Jamie,
talk to the people around you. Talk to the people
that can help if you need someone to talk to.
Speaker 4 (33:39):
Well, I love talking to you because you're such a
positive person. Thank you very much. Sandra Matthews, National President
of Rural Women in New Zealand. Right, we're going to
take a break. Paul McCartney and Jet when he went
with Ueens got a talented bunch of musicians. The peoples
were Ringo Paul McCartney's eighty two, Ringo eighty four, Me
(34:01):
and Michelle and Michelle and I reckon. George Harrison was
the youngest beetle no longer with us up next to
Rowena Duncom.
Speaker 5 (34:19):
Just cave where to get on.
Speaker 4 (34:20):
The road again playing songs from artists who are older
than Winston and Donald Trump, Willie Nelson a lot older
ninety one years of age on the road again. That's
apped for our next and final guests for today. Rowena
Duncomb back up host here on the country. She's gone
to the big smoke of Auckland, but she'll always be
a country girl. Rowena, you're going to be back on
(34:43):
the road again. You're taking a farming tour to Australia.
I think you've got two spots left.
Speaker 9 (34:48):
Yeah, indeed, so this is a with zest for travel.
It's looking at out that Queensland. I'm so excited, Jamie,
it's going to be amazing. Looking at the Australian Stockman's
Hall of Fame, Looking at a state that's got one
hundred and forty kilometers of exclusion fence to enable them
to bring marinos back into their business. Looking at dar
River down Station, five fifty five thousand acres one hundred
(35:12):
and thirty five thousand sheep, home to Queensland's first wool scour.
There's farm stays and out back date farm. Looking at
the Roma Sale Yards, which is Australia's largest cattle selling center.
And I love this one in particular, the newly opened
Western Queensland Spirit Distillery. You know that's a wee bit
of me as well. So yeah, as you say there's
(35:33):
a couple of spots left, was actually extended that we
can now go to twenty eight people, so it's eleven
nine ninety five per Poson twin share, there are single
options available with a small surcharge. It's your flights from
New Zealand to Australia and back, your flights within Australia,
your accommodation, ten breakfast, seven lunches, eight dinners in my
(35:54):
company for eleven days, and out back Queensland houses.
Speaker 4 (35:57):
Again, well, it can't doesn't get much better than that.
You won't even have to bring your wallet and I
know that. I think Shane mcmanaway has been involved in
some of these farm visits, so it is going to
be a cracker if you're interested in that, Just quickly,
what do you do?
Speaker 5 (36:09):
Yeah?
Speaker 9 (36:10):
This number four travel website or just flick us a
text on five double O nine and I'll send you
the link.
Speaker 5 (36:16):
Now.
Speaker 4 (36:16):
Occasionally, when you're not swinding about New Zealand or overseas,
you do do a wee bit of work, especially when
I'm swaning about. Are you been working or you've just
released You've just dropped a podcast? How cool does that sound?
You've just dropped a podcast with Beef and Lamb New Zealand.
What's it about?
Speaker 9 (36:32):
Yes, it's about facial x men, nasty costly disease that
obviously affected New Zealand livestock farmers for over one hundred years.
As things warm up, it's becoming more widespread around the country.
So it cols our economy three hundred and thirty two
million dollars annually. So, as you say, I've turned out
with Beef and Lamb New Zealand a new four part
podcast series looking at key aspects of their Eliminating Facial
(36:56):
Xma Impacts program. It's a seven year programot collaboration between
Beef and Lamb and MPI contributions from farmers and industry experts.
So in this episode, which has just dropped, as you say, Jamie,
I'm joined by Becky Diamond, Senior Advisor Farmer Engagement and
Partnerships at Beef and Lamb New Zealand, and we look
at the economics, social, and welbing impacts of facial XMA
(37:19):
because it goes beyond, you know, just one impact, and
we look at the key drivers behind all of their
work into facial XMA. The podcast is called Eliminating Facial
Xmas Impacts. You'll find it on the country's podcast stream
wherever you get your podcasts and it's also pinned to
the top of our Facebook page or it will be
very shortly.
Speaker 4 (37:37):
When I do that, and really quickly. I was remissing
me yesterday not to mention this. Jamie Skiffington close but
no cigar. I've got like twenty seconds.
Speaker 9 (37:45):
Tremendous effort from Jamie. A lot of work went into
it was ten short going into the final run. Pulled
the pin, but you know he said he will be
back and he's just so grateful for all the support
from everyone.
Speaker 4 (37:57):
Well, what a great all round and what a great
athletea is Rowena Duncan there drop us a text on
five double O nine if you'd like to go on
that ossy outback tour with her. That's us done and
dusted tomorrow on the show Christopher Luxen for the first
time in twenty five see you then.
Speaker 1 (38:16):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to Frent You're specialist in
John Deere construction equipment
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