May 13, 2025 • 38 mins
Jamie Mackay talks to Christopher Luxon, Michael Every, Katie Milne, and Craig Wiggins.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Catch you're the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to Brent, you're specialist in
John Deere construction equipment. It's got me what a lifeless
subow so I grew up the time they've warned me about.
They said my friends were just an unruly.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
Mob and I should get a haircut and get a
real job.
Speaker 3 (00:27):
Get a New Zealand and welcome to the Country. I'm
Jamie McKay. Show's brought to you by Brent. Michelle's loaded
up some George thoroughod for us today. Apparently he's in
the country. Get a haircut and get a real job. Well,
it doesn't apply to our first guess, because he needs neither.
He's got both where he doesn't need a haircut and
he's got quite an important job. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon
(00:49):
caught up with them earlier this morning. Why hasn't he
visited China? Hunter McGregor threw that one out on yesterday's show.
What about Trump's latest tarraft smooth terraces Tariff's move the
Paris Climate Agreement? Should we be in or out of that?
And are we flogging off the family silverware to pay
for an unaffordable national super scheme right. The highlight though
(01:13):
today no disrespect to the Prime Minister, will be Michael
every Rabobanks, Singapore based global strategist. He's waiting in the wings.
Katie Milne, former president of Federated Farmers, was listening to
the show yesterday. She's these days a West Coast dairy
farmer and she says on the text line, anyhow we
need to change the way we measure methane in the atmosphere,
(01:36):
and she questions our commitment to the Paris Climate Agreement.
Craig Wiggy Wiggins, rural and mental health advocate, is in
the spates Ale House and Palmi North. What a great
place to be on a Friday. We'll go there before
the end of the show. But up next it's The
PM Wednesday's on the Country, The Big Guy. The PM
(02:08):
kicks off the show. Here's a question Christopher Luxen from
our Shanghai based correspondent Hunter McGregor on yesterday's show, He's
disappointed that you haven't been or fronted up in China
yet with a trade delegation.
Speaker 4 (02:21):
Why not, Well, I just say watched the space. It's
imminent as a trip to China. It's something I've been
looking forward to doing for a long time. It's obviously country.
In my former life with Unilever and in New Zealand
did a lot of business in as well, and it's
a really important relationship for US, and I think there's
huge opportunity in trade for US to continue to deepen
(02:42):
up those connections in China. So I'm really looking forward
to taking a great delegation to China. It'll be announced
very shortly we do. The announcements is pretty close to
the time because of for security reasons, for different reasons
for the different president and Premier of China as much
as for me, And so just watch the space.
Speaker 3 (02:58):
As Trump would say, it'll be a great day allegation,
a beautiful delegation, the beginning of the end of Trump's
tariffs or is that just wishful thinking from me?
Speaker 2 (03:08):
Oh?
Speaker 4 (03:08):
Look, I think he's campaigned very strongly in the campaign
around tariff is an idea you're obviously seeing America you
use it in a way that they want to to
advance their interests.
Speaker 2 (03:20):
You know.
Speaker 4 (03:21):
The good news for New Zealand is that you know,
there's no country that's better off than New Zealand at
this point, and actually our expectation our exporters when I
check him with them each week. I check him with
quite a few of them each every week to see
how it's all going. They just see still huge opportunity
in North America. So you know, we keep monitoring it.
We've got our officials talking to the government administration. Tom
(03:41):
mcclay's due to meet with the Trade Secretary very next
month as well and have a good conversation with him
there at at his meeting, and so yeah, so look,
we keep monitoring it really closely. But for us, it's
about New Zealand. We've got huge opportunity. We've got rapidly
growing middle classes, We've got great products to sell to
the world. Just got to get out and follow our
(04:01):
own plan.
Speaker 3 (04:02):
You know how we have trouble getting you places like
on our air force planes. Has any kind of Middle
Eastern country with the dodgy human rights record offered you
an airplane, even a Cessna, it might get you there
on time.
Speaker 4 (04:18):
Oh look, Jamie, I really appreciate your help with the
airplane situation. But look that hasn't been and offer that's
been executed to us will continue battling away using what
we've got.
Speaker 3 (04:29):
Now there's a ground swell no pun intended out there
to get us out of Paris. Now it's coming from
the likes of ground Swell, Methane Science, accord enz Farming
one of the biggest social media platforms for rural New
Zealand behind the country. Of course, what do you say
to those farmers, why should they stay in there because
you're Northland MP Grant mcnational McCullum has taken a pasting
(04:53):
on this show for standing up for Paris.
Speaker 2 (04:56):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (04:56):
Well look, I mean you may not like it to
hear this because it's very easy to dump to some
plastic solutions, right or what you think is a simplistic solution.
But just take a step back and think about it.
I mean, and this is what I hear from farmers
up and down the country, and they understand this. I'm
acting brutally in New Zealand's national interests. I don't want
to punish farmers. Pulling us out of Paris would punish
farmers a big time because I'm telling you right now,
(05:18):
the large multinationals, many that are as big as New
Zealand as a country, we'd just say now I'm looking
for an excuse to get out of that New Zealand
product and get rid of it. And I can tell
you many countries I'm thinking about many European I know
we'd love nothing more than to see New Zealand dairy products,
red meat and everything kicked off the shelves. And they've
used that as a non tower barrier to set you
(05:38):
do that. So it's in New Zealand's national interests. I'm
not there to punish. I don't want to punish farmers.
We're not sending production offshore. We are doing, we are acting.
It's in our brutal national interests to be part of
that agreement because I'm telling you and go talk to
people who know what will happen is you can sit
there and say, oh, this is this is the right solution.
(05:59):
Is what you say, yeah, great, when we lose a
whole bunch of distribution in Europe and other parts of
the world because we've pulled out. And I tell you countries,
there are countries that we compete with that would love
nothing more than to put a product from the Netherlands,
from Denmark all through Western Europe rather than have New
Zealand product there We just grew trade with Western Europe
(06:21):
by a billion dollars in the last twelve months.
Speaker 5 (06:24):
We just grew our exports to the UK.
Speaker 4 (06:26):
By twenty one percent in the last twelve months, and
that was farmers and your underwefe agricultures and a recovery.
It's because we're getting our product out there to the world.
And I'm telling you do that and you'll have a
lot less returns and farming will go down and that's
not great.
Speaker 3 (06:41):
New Zealand will pass an economic milestone in twenty twenty
eight when the government I EU if you're still there
as forecast, to make its first ever withdrawal from the
New Zealand Super Fun Prime Minister, are we flogging the
family silverware to pay for an unaffordable age of eligibility
for National Super It would appear to me.
Speaker 4 (07:01):
We are, well, you know how we feel about it
as national You know, the reality is that every ten
years New Zealander's average life expectency has been going up,
I think over over a year and a bit. So
we think that's why it makes sense. We've said that
for a long period of time. Bill English said that
for a long period of time we need to raise
the average age of super You know very strongly that
in a coalition government, New Zealand First has no support
(07:23):
for that proposal. In fact, Labor didn't I think, support
that proposal last time last year as well. So you know,
the reality is we think it makes sense. New Zealanders
are living longer, they're living healthier our lives and actually
lifting that age of superannuation would be a good thing.
It will continue to advocate for that if we can
do that in a future great agreement, we'd love to
do that. In the meantime, we have a piece of
(07:45):
legislation that says if New Zealand Superannuation needs support, you've
got to make withdrawals from the superfund. So yes, it
sort of bounces around with some withdraws and contributions. But
actually from twenty thirty one onwards, projections show that we
draws from the super fund are actually expected in each
and every year, and those withdrawals are made so that
that then those to cover the cost as you say,
(08:07):
of the New z own superannuation schemes, that the taxpayers
don't face that full cost each year. So we have
reached that tipping point. But you're right, I mean I
think that's a great reason for why we you know,
we've tried to have the conversation before, but this is
the reality of it. It's getting to a place where
in twenty thirty one, yep, we have to make those.
Speaker 3 (08:25):
Yeah, but I mean, Prime Minister, with all due respect,
why don't you just tell onstant to start off, because
he's not likely to cuddle up to Labor to party
Maori and the Greens.
Speaker 4 (08:33):
Now, well, we'll have to see, because I mean, that'll
be the comp you know, we will advocate for that
in a future government from twenty twenty six on. Once
we'll go to the market, you know, go to the
electric with that policy again. Labor opposed it, you know,
New Zealand first opposed it, so, you know, because of
the politics of it, and I just think that's not
You've got to make some tough decisions, and the right
(08:53):
decision is actually say, yep, average life expects is increasing,
it makes complete sense to lift it two years. We
can do it in a sensible kind of way and
the cost of the systems getting increasingly unaffordable.
Speaker 3 (09:04):
Watch the space, Prime Minister, thanks for your time as always.
Speaker 5 (09:07):
Thanks Jamie, have a great week.
Speaker 3 (09:09):
Yeah, the PM. Caught up with them earlier this morning,
as I do every Wednesday. Right some of your feedback
you can see where Grant McCullum gets his bs from
another one. I'm a farmer and I think the Paris
Accord as a joke and a scam. The whole thing
is bullshit. It's a fraud. Why don't you tell us
how you really feel. I'm going to ask a real
farmer before the end of the hour. Are Katie Milne
(09:30):
what she thinks about Paris? Be interesting to get her
thoughts on it. Well educated person traveled the world on
behalf of New Zealand. Hey, look we've got field Day
field Day's tickets to give away. We've got a double
pass to give away today. Yesterday's double pass winner was
he said, looking at his pieces of paper in the studio.
John Clark, Fred Dagg, John Clark from Eketahuna. Well done, John.
(09:54):
You'll enjoy the drive up to the tron for the
field days. If you want to go to field Day's,
we've got a double pass to give away. All you've
got to do is text field Days. It's one word.
Spell it correctly, I before E except after see and
you need your name and where you're listening from text
it to five double O nine B into one. Of course,
Field Days, the biggest agricultural event in the Southern Hemisphere,
(10:18):
returns to Mystery Creek on the on June eleven to fourteen.
Looking forward to seeing you and meeting you there up next.
This promises to be the highlight of the show. No
disrespect to the Prime Minister, but he's on every week.
Michael Every, Singapore based global strategist for Ravobank, his take
(10:39):
on the state of the planet. I don't want to
day I was bond for Zaga the Realm. He is
Rabobanks Singapore based global strategist. His name is Michael Every.
Love having him on the country. Michael. Yesterday we saw
(11:02):
the ninety day pause, or the lifting of some of
Trump's Chinese tariffs. The result was the Dale Jones going
up nearly three percent. Is this the beginning of the
end for tariffs and the beginning of a bright new world?
Speaker 5 (11:16):
No, go into more detail if you want, but I
think knows a good answer to start with.
Speaker 3 (11:21):
So that's a pretty short answer. Explain why it is
such a definitive.
Speaker 5 (11:25):
No, Well, you have to look at things in a
broader perspective. First of all, just to be boring and technical,
we still have a thirty percent tariff on China on
top of twenty five percent tariffs on two thirds of
Chinese goods legacy from the first Trump presidency and the
Biden presidency. So technically two thirds of the stuff going
(11:47):
to the US faces around a fifty five percent tariff.
That's not what you would call low by any standards.
The fact that it seems low in a way is
a victory for Trump. By having gone to such ludicris extremes,
what's left now seems reasonable.
Speaker 3 (12:03):
Has Trump got a better deal than the Chinese? It's
only ten percent going the other wire? Or have I
got that wrong as well?
Speaker 5 (12:09):
No, no, you're right, it's only ten percent going the
other way. So he's got a better deal in the
short term, even though, of course people are saying that
he folded. And if you look at certain things the
US have said and done, I would say you can
see they have drawn dotted lines on things where folds
could happen in the future, but they haven't folded them yet.
(12:32):
But the bigger picture is not only that those tariffs
are still in place, but the US has said, look,
they can go back up again if in ninety days
we don't get China to do what we want. And
then it comes back to the bigger picture perspective of
who things China can do what the US wants, And
if you look at what the US is demanding and
if you look at what China is prepared to supply,
it's really really hard, realistically to imagine that that deal
(12:57):
can be done. So if you're a cynic, you say, look,
the US was facing empty shelves and inflation in the
next couple of months, and that's true because they were
hoping China would already have buckled and it didn't. Now
everyone's going to rush like stink to resupply from China,
to fill their inventories sky high, to make sure this
can't happen again. And then when they've done that, the
(13:19):
US will be looking for around two I would think,
one way or another, or at least doing the same
thing it was doing up until now, but just more slowly,
rather than ripping the plaster off in one go. That
strikes me as still being far more logical than suddenly
everyone sing Kumbai around the campfire.
Speaker 3 (13:35):
Who currently has the stronger hand and the scheme of
strip poker.
Speaker 5 (13:40):
Oh wow, that's an interesting visual metaphor. I don't think
either of them have a very strong hand because the
US doesn't make very much obviously, and that's a real
problem when you don't get the stuff supplied to you
by China, and yet China doesn't have enough people to
buy the stuff of the profit margins, they want to
sell it out without the US. Technically, the US are
(14:02):
correct that in historical terms, whoever is the person who's
buying the stuff has the whippand the customer is always
right at the end of the day. The problem is
in the interim. If China just says we are prepared
to suffer the pain of not supplying you with anything
until you sweat it out, you know more than we do.
You can see that the US does have to blink
(14:22):
on that front. But as I said, if they now restock,
if every retailer in the US is right, let's get
in loads and loads of inventory, they're in a better
position to then restart this whole circus. In August.
Speaker 3 (14:35):
What happened to Thrive and twenty five.
Speaker 5 (14:39):
I don't even know what that is.
Speaker 3 (14:41):
It's the saying you've got to survive twenty four and
thrive and twenty five. As in twenty twenty five, the
world economy was going to come right. Then Trump came
along with this teriffs.
Speaker 5 (14:51):
Ah yeah, well that was said by idiots. To be honest,
I think the version of it that I heard in
markets would stay alive till twenty five. But really, you know,
to make a serious point alongside the flippant one I
just made. If that is from a financial market perspective
where I work, you're trading strategy to stay alive and
everything will be better next year, you're in the wrong
(15:11):
job because you haven't understood anything that led to the
volatility that we saw in twenty twenty four. And I
warned explicitly again and again and again in every forum
I have, including this one, of course, with gratitude that
we were going to have a really rocky road in
twenty five. I called it the year of living dangerously.
I was very explicit about that, and I said, the
(15:34):
people thinking everything was going to be right just because
it was a new year, well it's about as useful
as the tooth fairy and trying to make predictions that
the reality was always deeply, deeply concerning and we've seen
exactly that play out.
Speaker 3 (15:45):
Can New Zealand thrive and other markets to counter Trump's
ten percent tariffs currently imposed on US?
Speaker 5 (15:53):
Well, the ten percent into the US is really neither
here nor there. I don't know anyone who's seriously concerned
about that. In the biggest scheme of things. What's much
much more important for New Zealand is a process which
will now be slowed down, partially by what was just
agreed between the US and China this week. Slowed down,
but in no way avoided, which is the US pressurizing
(16:13):
every other country to come to the table and say, right,
let's do a deal. Part of that deal will be
more slowly than maybe it would have been before. But
you are going to freeze China out of your market.
You are going to start a process of gradual realignment
of supply chains so that you deal with the US
block rather than China. That process, as far as I'm
concerned as a global strategist, is still absolutely locks unloaded.
Speaker 3 (16:38):
Michael Avery with US Rabobanks, Singapore based global strategist, and
part two of this interview, let's have a look at
what's the best business to be and food communitions, the
nurse blog gather Rau Big East than Wild wonder.
Speaker 1 (16:55):
Day hours on the nurselog gather.
Speaker 3 (16:58):
Rau, Welcome back to the country and welcome back Michael
ivery Rabobanks, Singapore based global strategists. As I teased before
the break, what's the best business to be in food
or munitions in twenty twenty five?
Speaker 5 (17:13):
Wow, you're not really giving me much of a choice
if there's the only table that's literally what you call
a guns or butter choice, isn't it? As we used
to say in political terms, I actually think food in
one respect one key respect here. First of all, you
have to have food. You don't have to have guns,
although at the moment of course everybody wants guns. But
(17:33):
another key one which people are overlooking, which is this.
Right now, everyone's very gung ho about the military sector,
and I think rightly I've been arguing that for years.
But if you're talking about producing the stuff, and if
you're talking about holding shares, you know, equity in that
kind of sector, you have to remember that once national
security gets involved, which it is, big profits aren't allowed.
(17:56):
There's a word for people and companies that make really
mega profit by selling things to the state that they
need in an emergency, and it's called profiteering. And I
don't know if you have any personal memory of how
profiteering used to be treated during things like World War Two,
But it involve bullets and not as gifts. So if
that's going to be the case, I would imagine that
(18:17):
if we have to rearm a lot more, it's going
to be a lot lower profit margins. With the government
saying this is too important for people to make a
lot of money doing. I don't see that happening in food.
I can see food being propped up by the state
in various different ways if necessary, and hopefully judiciously in
terms of you know, key things like infrastructure, but you
still need to actually make a return on farming to
(18:38):
do it. So between the two, you know, someone who
likes markets food, not guns.
Speaker 3 (18:43):
We're always on a state of turmoil here on planet Earth.
We've got Russia, the Ukraine, Israel, Hamas, now India versus
Pakistan on the doomsday clock sort of scenario. Is this
the most unsettled we've been since I don't know, the
Huban missile crisis of the early nineteen sixties.
Speaker 5 (19:03):
Well, we have had a couple of very big wars,
you know, in the past couple of decades, involving Iraq,
of course, which had a lot more death and destruction
than we're currently seeing. But in terms of the breadth
of the problem and the structural depth of the problem,
not in any one geography, but just in terms of
the entire picture we're looking at. Yes, because as you've
(19:25):
heard me say many times over the years, Jamie, the
entire global architecture that we built post Cold War is
crumbling around us, absolutely crumbling. You might not feel it
on a farm in New Zealand day in, day out,
but I can assure you lots of people in other
geographies are and in fact, interestingly, if you look at
all the places you just listed and some of the
others that are on the you know, unfortunately on the
(19:47):
short list to be joining them, all of them are
key pivot points in terms of where we think global
trade flows or the borders of new global trade blocks
will sit. And that is not a coincidence in any way,
shape or form.
Speaker 3 (20:01):
Who impresses you on the world stage. Now I know
Sakia Starmer doesn't impress British farmers one iota, but he
seems to be making himself felt on the world stage.
Speaker 5 (20:14):
Could he be, then, you diplomat, No, let's go back
to the short answer that I really go on. I
very much doubt it. You have to basically start with
a strong base at home. Now he's got a very
very strong one in terms of his position in parliament.
That's undeniable. But if you actually look at where he
is in the opinion polls right now, it's very low
(20:35):
and almost every policy that he appears to be putting
forward at the moment is going down like a lead balloon.
So it's not that he isn't trying. He's certainly doing
what many prime ministers and presidents do when they're in
on a sticky wicket, which is, let's try and look
good internationally to build a bit of kudos domestically. But
it's honestly really going down like a lead balloon so.
Speaker 3 (20:54):
Far, okay, So it just boils down to Trump versus Shijingping.
Speaker 5 (21:00):
Well, Putin's in the mix too, and I wouldn't rule
out India's Modi Prime Minister. Modi very powerful figure who's
certainly capable of implementing enormous changes depending on what he
decides to do. And even with Trump there in the
next few hours, the Prince Muhammad bin Salman in Saudi Arabia.
He's really a mover and shaker getting things done. So
(21:20):
there are people out there that really can shift things,
but not as many of them are the traditional European
or Anglo Saxon talking heads you know that we're used
to from the past. This is a different world now.
We have to listen to a broader variety of people.
Speaker 3 (21:35):
Could a Chicago born American pope get Trump to calm
the farm?
Speaker 5 (21:41):
Calm the farm?
Speaker 3 (21:43):
Another New Zealand saying, Okay, I.
Speaker 5 (21:45):
Like that one. I haven't heard that.
Speaker 4 (21:48):
Well.
Speaker 5 (21:48):
I don't really think Trump listens to popes or priests
that much. I think it was entertaining in terms of
a headline to actually have a made in America pope,
just when we've got all the issue of tariffs going around,
and that we've got white smoke on the pope and
on the rumored US China trade deal which came out
of Monday on the same day. So there's a bit
of a divine intervention there, perhaps, But I don't think
(22:11):
the Pope himself is going to be directing any kind
of policy for the US, be it geopolitical or trade.
Speaker 3 (22:18):
Hey, on a lighter note, just to finish, Trump accepting
the seven four seven jumbo jet from the Katari royal
family worth nearly seven hundred million dollars. Of course he'd
accept that, he said, you'd be stupid not to.
Speaker 5 (22:31):
Well, yeah, they offered me one. I'd take one too.
I don't necessarily think that it's completely appropriate, although it
is apparently a more nuanced argument than it's being presented
by some. But nonetheless not a good look. And you know,
looks so very important. But that's not actually the craziest
head one they've had today. It's actually yesterday last night.
We got it quite late here in Asia that Trump
is apparently going to meet the president of Syria today
(22:54):
or he may do. That's the rumor. Who is a
former al Qaeda member, So that shows how the world's changing.
But the rumor is that the president of Syria is
offering to build Trump Tower in Damascus. Well, we still
have massacres going on in the suburbs, so it doesn't
mean he's going to go along with that. But you know,
it's a wacky world of sports out there at the moment.
Speaker 3 (23:12):
It really is we live in a crazy world. Michael
every Rubbobanks, Singapore based global strategists, love your time, love
you work here on the Country. Thank you bad to
the bone? Is that the Trumpster? All right? Some of
your feedback interesting from Glenn, Thank you, Prime Minister, about
time this show, I e. The Country played the counter
factual to Bryce McKenzie and Jane Smith's unscientific populist bullsh bs.
(23:40):
Angry boomers doing cutting edge research on Facebook on the
toilet should not be given the auctions oxygen they get,
says Glenn. Well, Bryce is a boomer, Jane might be
a wee bit consulted by that one. And here's another one. Okay,
Prime Minister, you want us to stay in the Paris Accord,
how about getting the methane calculations right eg GWP Starr calculations.
(24:04):
We're going to tell you more about that with Katie
Meln She's coming up shortly. But up next Rural news
and sports News. I don't know man, Welcome back to
the Country, brought to you by Brandt. My name's Jamie McKay.
Up next, Rural news and sports News. But first, here's
(24:26):
a product that I'm really interested in as someone who's
got to share in a dairy farm. Milk prices they're
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(24:46):
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I think that's a really appealing feature of this. It's fast,
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(25:08):
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Speaker 1 (25:31):
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Speaker 3 (25:40):
And Michelle's gone missing an action with rural news, but
I've got plan B. It's the Lincoln College Rugby Football
Club Reunion. Lincoln was known as Lincoln College from nineteen
sixty one to eighty nine. Registration's close, it stumps this Friday.
Google LCRFC Lincoln College Rugby Football Club reus union and
(26:01):
register's going to be drinks on Thursday, the twenty second
dinner and speeches on Friday and lunch and of course
the rugby at Lincoln University on the Saturday. So that's
your rural news.
Speaker 1 (26:14):
Sport with AFCO, Visit them online at AFCO dot co
dot Nz.
Speaker 3 (26:19):
So Australian sailor Nathan Alteridge will replace Peter Berling as
the skipper of Team New Zealand and Scott Dixon's finished
with the fourth fastest lap time in the opening practice
session at the Indianapolis five hundred. He's completed a lap
at three hundred and sixty two kilometers an hour that
(26:40):
is quick, almost as quick as Nick Fisher. On the
way to the Wanaka Amp show along the Ida Valley.
Up next Katie Katie Milne and why we need to
change the way we met them Measure methane loves a
(27:01):
lawful joelgan on Yesterday's conversation on the Country was all
about the ruminant methane survey from Groundsweal, methane science, accord
and enz farming. Another conversation was whether we should be
in or out of Paris. I'm going to come back
to that one. But some interesting feedback I got on
the show yesterday via the text line came from Katie Milne,
(27:23):
West Coast dairy farmer, former president of Federated Farmers, the
woman who broke the grass ceiling. And Katie, you, for
your sins, had to go to one of those cop
conferences and you're up in arms about us not using
GWP star as a measuring mechanism for methane.
Speaker 2 (27:42):
Yeah.
Speaker 6 (27:42):
Actually, for my sins, I've been two of them, to
be fair, but it was interesting. The first one I
went to was part of the New Zealand delegation and
the data and research had not too long been out
about global warming potential star versus global warming potential one
hundred and that clearly showed that there was less impact
(28:03):
from me, sane, and if you didn't add animals to
your system, you weren't increasing warming. That was put forward
by myself and others in conversations around the traps over there,
and why wouldn't this be accepted or when can this
be brought into the system because it's a fear away,
it's been peer reviewed and it does reflect properly what
(28:28):
actually happens with warming, And to my charge, in horror,
a lot of people said, yep, that's all good. It
can come into the mix at some stage, but it
won't be till quite a few years down the road
because of the psychical nature of the cops and metrics
will be done at that stage. I think it's twenty nineteen,
in about another seven years so, and I just like flabbergacid.
(28:51):
It's like, if you've got cutting edge data research, it's
peered reviewed and makes sense and is accepted by the IPC,
what on earth wouldn't you put it through? Because aren't
we after the best results for the planet all around
and for whatever industry you're in, obviously or sector, but
especially for farmers all around the globe. This was a
(29:14):
message that actually, if you're doing things as efficiently as
you can with your animals. That's okay, that's.
Speaker 5 (29:22):
The direction you should go.
Speaker 6 (29:23):
So that it sort of really locked me for six
actually that there was not a lot of interest in
pursuing it at any pace whatsoever.
Speaker 3 (29:31):
So if we use GWP star as a measuring mechanism,
the methane problem from ruminants basically disappears off the face
of the earth because there is no increased warming from animals.
But the counter argument to that one, and I'm only
playing devil's advocate here, Katie, is people will the climate change.
People will say, are half of New Zealand's emissions come
(29:54):
from animals?
Speaker 6 (29:56):
Well, that's a thing to do with our per capita
and what our country has gone that our animals are
still the most efficient. Our production system is the most
efficient for methane, you know, per kilogram of output on
the planet. So you know, you've got to balance up
what is actually happening to the to on the broader
(30:17):
scheme of things versus just actually New Zealand. Your number
is high.
Speaker 5 (30:21):
Why is it high.
Speaker 6 (30:22):
It's not because we've got industrial car manufacturing and lots
and lots and lots of coal fired generation. We've got
a little bit. We have this, you know, grass feed,
beef and meat milk, which in land, which everybody's looking for.
If you go and look at what trends are around
the world for consumers, they're moving towards that natural feed
(30:45):
product hell for lever as fast as they can get
it because they are seeing that that way is the
way to go. And why not take New Zealand products
because it actually has a low carbon footprint as well.
Speaker 3 (30:57):
No, you won't get an argument for me just on
the Paris Climate Agreement whether we should be in or
out and ground swallow jumping up and down about this one.
Right as we speak, they're starting a new campaign on
this one. I know you didn't hear them, but Christopher
Luxon said on the show earlier, if we pull out
of Paris, European countries are going to kick us to
touch and it's going to cost farmers of fortune.
Speaker 6 (31:20):
Well, that will be an interesting one to see because
it's I hope he's absolutely wrong, because our product is
top not all those things, as we know, but when
people go around the globe and talk to people, your
average punter doesn't talk about that at all. And the
Paris Agreement did say you have to protect food security
in the process of trying to reduce your emissions. So
(31:42):
you know, we know about amissions leakage. If we don't
do it, someone else picks it up and they don't
do it as efficiently, so overall it's a net loss
for the planet. But yes, I know people and myself
when I've traveled around you talk to consumers, they want
food security and maybe it's a tiny, tiny, tiny few
points zero zero one that look at the carbon and go, yep,
(32:06):
you've got to have this number right. But again, we
haven't told the story properly. We just get in an
echo chamber when we go to those sort of talks.
I feel and we played the orchestra that's singing at
the time, which is you have to reduce your number,
regardless of what it means. So we really have to
get our story out there better. And we all hear
(32:28):
that all the time, but it's the truth.
Speaker 3 (32:31):
We need to take them on our journey. Katie, I
hate that word. Hey, how are things on the West Coast?
Just to finish on house your season winding up? If
you dried up, dry it up, try it off yet Katie.
Speaker 6 (32:43):
We haven't, We haven't quite dried off yet it's been
a cracker second half. First half was too wet, it
went dry straight away, but it's been very, very mild
and so we've only had a couple of frocks in
May and the grass is still checking over, starting to
slow off as the sunshine ours drop. But you know,
it's looking pretty good for us, so we'll take it
(33:04):
every time.
Speaker 3 (33:04):
Oh Katie, I'll leave you to go away and ponder
what you're going to do with all your money this season.
Always enjoy your inputs to the country. And thanks for
listening yesterday.
Speaker 6 (33:13):
All good, Thanks Jamie, Thank you.
Speaker 3 (33:16):
Katie makes a lot of sense, doesn't she. Up next
for off to the spates Alehouse and Parmi North good
very real time. Love catching up with this bloke on
the country because he's one of the best blokes in
the country. How about that for an intro Craig Wiggy
Wiggins rural and mental health campaigner. I hear that you're
(33:37):
going to be loitering with intent tonight at the best
at the best get it right spates Alehouse in the country,
Palmei North.
Speaker 2 (33:46):
Tonight, Yeah, made on my guest up here with timun
beneath Edlin and of course Enerson's as well and looking
forward to it. They've got a mental health awareness night
and Lean on the Gate night and it's combined with
the food and beverage and tasting as well. I see
you a copy of the menu. It's pretty flash.
Speaker 3 (34:03):
Yeah, it's flash a right, and also the Kadrona distilleries involved,
so they've got bear and whiskey matches with all five courses.
What is the fundraising What are you raising funds for?
Speaker 2 (34:14):
So the Lean on a Gate campaign made them all
about getting the mental health and awareness around them, strengthening
communities all throughout New Zealand. So Tim's been great. Tim
and Benissa been great to us when we've been happy
for the Royal Games and they said we would like
to get behind you and then support you in that space.
So I'm really grateful for that year.
Speaker 3 (34:31):
What else are you up to because Leen on a
Gate talk to a mate's not your ownly arm.
Speaker 2 (34:36):
Oh yeah, there's a fair but going on. I mean
on the park of the course as well. I had
a lot of racetracks around the country and my life's
pretty busy these days away from home, but very shortly
we're heading around the country slave McFarland, myself and a
representative Andrew Roland from Fullsight Bar and we're doing a
lot of talks throughout New Zealand on the Lean on
the Gate campaign and also from there. Once we've done
(34:58):
those talks a lot of the clubs, we will be
able to initiate some training for those people that want
to be more involved in supporting their communities and wellness
and well being and maybe even suicide says.
Speaker 3 (35:10):
And if that's not enough, as soon as we finish
this phone conversation, Craig Wiggy Wiggins, you're off to address
the young adults. I won't say the kids at Fielding
Agricultural High although they've dropped the agricultural, but it's just
Fielding High. It is one of the great schools in
this country.
Speaker 2 (35:27):
Yeah, definitely, Jamien. I went to Fielding ag Culture High
School back in the eighties and came Dixon and the
crew from where at the Rural games during the sharing
and they asked if I'd come back and talk about
career choices and how life can change and stuff like that.
And I've had so many different changes in my life
just with the connections that I've had, like yourself for example,
over the years. And yeah, so it's a bit of
(35:47):
a progress to go back. There's one hundred agriculture and
horticultural students that'll get to listen to me this afternoon,
do so, that's awesome.
Speaker 3 (35:53):
A whole lot of good rugby players came out of
Fielding egg I think of the White Locks, Aaron Smith
and many others. Too many to mention.
Speaker 2 (36:01):
What happened to you, oh, mate, I was always a horseman,
so I changed shows a different path. But yeah, even
on the women's side, load to Herny, Sarah Herny and
some of those ladies that came out of Fielding Eggs
School as well. It's been great rugby college that probably
gets under mentioned except for on your show.
Speaker 3 (36:20):
Great Rugby College, no doubt about it. Before I let
you go, When you're not gallivanting around the country doing
God's work and the space of rural and mental health,
you're living in mid Canterbury. I know that you're sort
of a bit more of a town or your lifestyle
of these days. But how's the Mid Canterbury season going?
Speaker 2 (36:39):
It's so weird there, mate. You never realized just how
much you actually looked forward to a Northwestern until yesterday
where she finally got one. We had one hundred and
eighty mills there one week and then another twenty five
on top of it last Friday, So the place is
probably drenched to be fair, but there's been plenty of
good grass growth. But the arable guys will tell you,
any of those guys will tell you it's been a
tough season on them. Getting grows well at the.
Speaker 3 (37:01):
Spates Alehouse in Palmerston, North and I mean this hand
on heart. It is the best spaits alehouse in the country.
And there's a few good ones. There's a good one
on Hamilton, no doubt we'll see them at field days.
You enjoy the potato doughnuts, the tatia tuna, the boiler
which is the chicken and smokey or dumplings. I'm not
quite sure on that one. WIGGI. You've got the pork belly,
and then you've got the espresso pannacotta, all with Emerson's
(37:25):
and Kadrona Distillery matches and it's all going for a
good cause. SALEO to Tim and Bernie at the Alehouse
all do you know.
Speaker 2 (37:32):
We're having a coffee with them now, So thank you.
Very much.
Speaker 3 (37:35):
Good on you, Wiggy better mention, Queen's down underneed and
another couple are really good Alehouses Radio. Some of your feedback, Jamie,
Katie is a breath of fresh air, good honor for
standing up and being counted. Well done you forgetting her
on the country. Always a pleasure to have her on.
And here's an interesting one. Look at what happened with Bremworth.
The customer's customer was more concerned about price than sustainable.
(38:00):
Can Rob Hewitt not see that when he puts on
his Agri zero in zed hat? Interesting feedback, We love
it here on five double nine. Text that number with
field Day's your name and where you're listening from, and
you could win a double pass tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (38:14):
See you.
Speaker 1 (38:15):
Then catch all the latest from the land. It's the
Country podcast with Jamie McGue Thanks to Brent, your specialist
in John Deere Machinery.
Catch you're the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie McKay. Thanks to Brent, you're specialist in
John Deere construction equipment. It's got me what a lifeless
subow so I grew up the time they've warned me about.
They said my friends were just an unruly.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
Mob and I should get a haircut and get a
real job.
Speaker 3 (00:27):
Get a New Zealand and welcome to the Country. I'm
Jamie McKay. Show's brought to you by Brent. Michelle's loaded
up some George thoroughod for us today. Apparently he's in
the country. Get a haircut and get a real job. Well,
it doesn't apply to our first guess, because he needs neither.
He's got both where he doesn't need a haircut and
he's got quite an important job. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon
(00:49):
caught up with them earlier this morning. Why hasn't he
visited China? Hunter McGregor threw that one out on yesterday's show.
What about Trump's latest tarraft smooth terraces Tariff's move the
Paris Climate Agreement? Should we be in or out of that?
And are we flogging off the family silverware to pay
for an unaffordable national super scheme right. The highlight though
(01:13):
today no disrespect to the Prime Minister, will be Michael
every Rabobanks, Singapore based global strategist. He's waiting in the wings.
Katie Milne, former president of Federated Farmers, was listening to
the show yesterday. She's these days a West Coast dairy
farmer and she says on the text line, anyhow we
need to change the way we measure methane in the atmosphere,
(01:36):
and she questions our commitment to the Paris Climate Agreement.
Craig Wiggy Wiggins, rural and mental health advocate, is in
the spates Ale House and Palmi North. What a great
place to be on a Friday. We'll go there before
the end of the show. But up next it's The
PM Wednesday's on the Country, The Big Guy. The PM
(02:08):
kicks off the show. Here's a question Christopher Luxen from
our Shanghai based correspondent Hunter McGregor on yesterday's show, He's
disappointed that you haven't been or fronted up in China
yet with a trade delegation.
Speaker 4 (02:21):
Why not, Well, I just say watched the space. It's
imminent as a trip to China. It's something I've been
looking forward to doing for a long time. It's obviously country.
In my former life with Unilever and in New Zealand
did a lot of business in as well, and it's
a really important relationship for US, and I think there's
huge opportunity in trade for US to continue to deepen
(02:42):
up those connections in China. So I'm really looking forward
to taking a great delegation to China. It'll be announced
very shortly we do. The announcements is pretty close to
the time because of for security reasons, for different reasons
for the different president and Premier of China as much
as for me, And so just watch the space.
Speaker 3 (02:58):
As Trump would say, it'll be a great day allegation,
a beautiful delegation, the beginning of the end of Trump's
tariffs or is that just wishful thinking from me?
Speaker 2 (03:08):
Oh?
Speaker 4 (03:08):
Look, I think he's campaigned very strongly in the campaign
around tariff is an idea you're obviously seeing America you
use it in a way that they want to to
advance their interests.
Speaker 2 (03:20):
You know.
Speaker 4 (03:21):
The good news for New Zealand is that you know,
there's no country that's better off than New Zealand at
this point, and actually our expectation our exporters when I
check him with them each week. I check him with
quite a few of them each every week to see
how it's all going. They just see still huge opportunity
in North America. So you know, we keep monitoring it.
We've got our officials talking to the government administration. Tom
(03:41):
mcclay's due to meet with the Trade Secretary very next
month as well and have a good conversation with him
there at at his meeting, and so yeah, so look,
we keep monitoring it really closely. But for us, it's
about New Zealand. We've got huge opportunity. We've got rapidly
growing middle classes, We've got great products to sell to
the world. Just got to get out and follow our
(04:01):
own plan.
Speaker 3 (04:02):
You know how we have trouble getting you places like
on our air force planes. Has any kind of Middle
Eastern country with the dodgy human rights record offered you
an airplane, even a Cessna, it might get you there
on time.
Speaker 4 (04:18):
Oh look, Jamie, I really appreciate your help with the
airplane situation. But look that hasn't been and offer that's
been executed to us will continue battling away using what
we've got.
Speaker 3 (04:29):
Now there's a ground swell no pun intended out there
to get us out of Paris. Now it's coming from
the likes of ground Swell, Methane Science, accord enz Farming
one of the biggest social media platforms for rural New
Zealand behind the country. Of course, what do you say
to those farmers, why should they stay in there because
you're Northland MP Grant mcnational McCullum has taken a pasting
(04:53):
on this show for standing up for Paris.
Speaker 2 (04:56):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (04:56):
Well look, I mean you may not like it to
hear this because it's very easy to dump to some
plastic solutions, right or what you think is a simplistic solution.
But just take a step back and think about it.
I mean, and this is what I hear from farmers
up and down the country, and they understand this. I'm
acting brutally in New Zealand's national interests. I don't want
to punish farmers. Pulling us out of Paris would punish
farmers a big time because I'm telling you right now,
(05:18):
the large multinationals, many that are as big as New
Zealand as a country, we'd just say now I'm looking
for an excuse to get out of that New Zealand
product and get rid of it. And I can tell
you many countries I'm thinking about many European I know
we'd love nothing more than to see New Zealand dairy products,
red meat and everything kicked off the shelves. And they've
used that as a non tower barrier to set you
(05:38):
do that. So it's in New Zealand's national interests. I'm
not there to punish. I don't want to punish farmers.
We're not sending production offshore. We are doing, we are acting.
It's in our brutal national interests to be part of
that agreement because I'm telling you and go talk to
people who know what will happen is you can sit
there and say, oh, this is this is the right solution.
(05:59):
Is what you say, yeah, great, when we lose a
whole bunch of distribution in Europe and other parts of
the world because we've pulled out. And I tell you countries,
there are countries that we compete with that would love
nothing more than to put a product from the Netherlands,
from Denmark all through Western Europe rather than have New
Zealand product there We just grew trade with Western Europe
(06:21):
by a billion dollars in the last twelve months.
Speaker 5 (06:24):
We just grew our exports to the UK.
Speaker 4 (06:26):
By twenty one percent in the last twelve months, and
that was farmers and your underwefe agricultures and a recovery.
It's because we're getting our product out there to the world.
And I'm telling you do that and you'll have a
lot less returns and farming will go down and that's
not great.
Speaker 3 (06:41):
New Zealand will pass an economic milestone in twenty twenty
eight when the government I EU if you're still there
as forecast, to make its first ever withdrawal from the
New Zealand Super Fun Prime Minister, are we flogging the
family silverware to pay for an unaffordable age of eligibility
for National Super It would appear to me.
Speaker 4 (07:01):
We are, well, you know how we feel about it
as national You know, the reality is that every ten
years New Zealander's average life expectency has been going up,
I think over over a year and a bit. So
we think that's why it makes sense. We've said that
for a long period of time. Bill English said that
for a long period of time we need to raise
the average age of super You know very strongly that
in a coalition government, New Zealand First has no support
(07:23):
for that proposal. In fact, Labor didn't I think, support
that proposal last time last year as well. So you know,
the reality is we think it makes sense. New Zealanders
are living longer, they're living healthier our lives and actually
lifting that age of superannuation would be a good thing.
It will continue to advocate for that if we can
do that in a future great agreement, we'd love to
do that. In the meantime, we have a piece of
(07:45):
legislation that says if New Zealand Superannuation needs support, you've
got to make withdrawals from the superfund. So yes, it
sort of bounces around with some withdraws and contributions. But
actually from twenty thirty one onwards, projections show that we
draws from the super fund are actually expected in each
and every year, and those withdrawals are made so that
that then those to cover the cost as you say,
(08:07):
of the New z own superannuation schemes, that the taxpayers
don't face that full cost each year. So we have
reached that tipping point. But you're right, I mean I
think that's a great reason for why we you know,
we've tried to have the conversation before, but this is
the reality of it. It's getting to a place where
in twenty thirty one, yep, we have to make those.
Speaker 3 (08:25):
Yeah, but I mean, Prime Minister, with all due respect,
why don't you just tell onstant to start off, because
he's not likely to cuddle up to Labor to party
Maori and the Greens.
Speaker 4 (08:33):
Now, well, we'll have to see, because I mean, that'll
be the comp you know, we will advocate for that
in a future government from twenty twenty six on. Once
we'll go to the market, you know, go to the
electric with that policy again. Labor opposed it, you know,
New Zealand first opposed it, so, you know, because of
the politics of it, and I just think that's not
You've got to make some tough decisions, and the right
(08:53):
decision is actually say, yep, average life expects is increasing,
it makes complete sense to lift it two years. We
can do it in a sensible kind of way and
the cost of the systems getting increasingly unaffordable.
Speaker 3 (09:04):
Watch the space, Prime Minister, thanks for your time as always.
Speaker 5 (09:07):
Thanks Jamie, have a great week.
Speaker 3 (09:09):
Yeah, the PM. Caught up with them earlier this morning,
as I do every Wednesday. Right some of your feedback
you can see where Grant McCullum gets his bs from
another one. I'm a farmer and I think the Paris
Accord as a joke and a scam. The whole thing
is bullshit. It's a fraud. Why don't you tell us
how you really feel. I'm going to ask a real
farmer before the end of the hour. Are Katie Milne
(09:30):
what she thinks about Paris? Be interesting to get her
thoughts on it. Well educated person traveled the world on
behalf of New Zealand. Hey, look we've got field Day
field Day's tickets to give away. We've got a double
pass to give away today. Yesterday's double pass winner was
he said, looking at his pieces of paper in the studio.
John Clark, Fred Dagg, John Clark from Eketahuna. Well done, John.
(09:54):
You'll enjoy the drive up to the tron for the
field days. If you want to go to field Day's,
we've got a double pass to give away. All you've
got to do is text field Days. It's one word.
Spell it correctly, I before E except after see and
you need your name and where you're listening from text
it to five double O nine B into one. Of course,
Field Days, the biggest agricultural event in the Southern Hemisphere,
(10:18):
returns to Mystery Creek on the on June eleven to fourteen.
Looking forward to seeing you and meeting you there up next.
This promises to be the highlight of the show. No
disrespect to the Prime Minister, but he's on every week.
Michael Every, Singapore based global strategist for Ravobank, his take
(10:39):
on the state of the planet. I don't want to
day I was bond for Zaga the Realm. He is
Rabobanks Singapore based global strategist. His name is Michael Every.
Love having him on the country. Michael. Yesterday we saw
(11:02):
the ninety day pause, or the lifting of some of
Trump's Chinese tariffs. The result was the Dale Jones going
up nearly three percent. Is this the beginning of the
end for tariffs and the beginning of a bright new world?
Speaker 5 (11:16):
No, go into more detail if you want, but I
think knows a good answer to start with.
Speaker 3 (11:21):
So that's a pretty short answer. Explain why it is
such a definitive.
Speaker 5 (11:25):
No, Well, you have to look at things in a
broader perspective. First of all, just to be boring and technical,
we still have a thirty percent tariff on China on
top of twenty five percent tariffs on two thirds of
Chinese goods legacy from the first Trump presidency and the
Biden presidency. So technically two thirds of the stuff going
(11:47):
to the US faces around a fifty five percent tariff.
That's not what you would call low by any standards.
The fact that it seems low in a way is
a victory for Trump. By having gone to such ludicris extremes,
what's left now seems reasonable.
Speaker 3 (12:03):
Has Trump got a better deal than the Chinese? It's
only ten percent going the other wire? Or have I
got that wrong as well?
Speaker 5 (12:09):
No, no, you're right, it's only ten percent going the
other way. So he's got a better deal in the
short term, even though, of course people are saying that
he folded. And if you look at certain things the
US have said and done, I would say you can
see they have drawn dotted lines on things where folds
could happen in the future, but they haven't folded them yet.
(12:32):
But the bigger picture is not only that those tariffs
are still in place, but the US has said, look,
they can go back up again if in ninety days
we don't get China to do what we want. And
then it comes back to the bigger picture perspective of
who things China can do what the US wants, And
if you look at what the US is demanding and
if you look at what China is prepared to supply,
it's really really hard, realistically to imagine that that deal
(12:57):
can be done. So if you're a cynic, you say, look,
the US was facing empty shelves and inflation in the
next couple of months, and that's true because they were
hoping China would already have buckled and it didn't. Now
everyone's going to rush like stink to resupply from China,
to fill their inventories sky high, to make sure this
can't happen again. And then when they've done that, the
(13:19):
US will be looking for around two I would think,
one way or another, or at least doing the same
thing it was doing up until now, but just more slowly,
rather than ripping the plaster off in one go. That
strikes me as still being far more logical than suddenly
everyone sing Kumbai around the campfire.
Speaker 3 (13:35):
Who currently has the stronger hand and the scheme of
strip poker.
Speaker 5 (13:40):
Oh wow, that's an interesting visual metaphor. I don't think
either of them have a very strong hand because the
US doesn't make very much obviously, and that's a real
problem when you don't get the stuff supplied to you
by China, and yet China doesn't have enough people to
buy the stuff of the profit margins, they want to
sell it out without the US. Technically, the US are
(14:02):
correct that in historical terms, whoever is the person who's
buying the stuff has the whippand the customer is always
right at the end of the day. The problem is
in the interim. If China just says we are prepared
to suffer the pain of not supplying you with anything
until you sweat it out, you know more than we do.
You can see that the US does have to blink
(14:22):
on that front. But as I said, if they now restock,
if every retailer in the US is right, let's get
in loads and loads of inventory, they're in a better
position to then restart this whole circus. In August.
Speaker 3 (14:35):
What happened to Thrive and twenty five.
Speaker 5 (14:39):
I don't even know what that is.
Speaker 3 (14:41):
It's the saying you've got to survive twenty four and
thrive and twenty five. As in twenty twenty five, the
world economy was going to come right. Then Trump came
along with this teriffs.
Speaker 5 (14:51):
Ah yeah, well that was said by idiots. To be honest,
I think the version of it that I heard in
markets would stay alive till twenty five. But really, you know,
to make a serious point alongside the flippant one I
just made. If that is from a financial market perspective
where I work, you're trading strategy to stay alive and
everything will be better next year, you're in the wrong
(15:11):
job because you haven't understood anything that led to the
volatility that we saw in twenty twenty four. And I
warned explicitly again and again and again in every forum
I have, including this one, of course, with gratitude that
we were going to have a really rocky road in
twenty five. I called it the year of living dangerously.
I was very explicit about that, and I said, the
(15:34):
people thinking everything was going to be right just because
it was a new year, well it's about as useful
as the tooth fairy and trying to make predictions that
the reality was always deeply, deeply concerning and we've seen
exactly that play out.
Speaker 3 (15:45):
Can New Zealand thrive and other markets to counter Trump's
ten percent tariffs currently imposed on US?
Speaker 5 (15:53):
Well, the ten percent into the US is really neither
here nor there. I don't know anyone who's seriously concerned
about that. In the biggest scheme of things. What's much
much more important for New Zealand is a process which
will now be slowed down, partially by what was just
agreed between the US and China this week. Slowed down,
but in no way avoided, which is the US pressurizing
(16:13):
every other country to come to the table and say, right,
let's do a deal. Part of that deal will be
more slowly than maybe it would have been before. But
you are going to freeze China out of your market.
You are going to start a process of gradual realignment
of supply chains so that you deal with the US
block rather than China. That process, as far as I'm
concerned as a global strategist, is still absolutely locks unloaded.
Speaker 3 (16:38):
Michael Avery with US Rabobanks, Singapore based global strategist, and
part two of this interview, let's have a look at
what's the best business to be and food communitions, the
nurse blog gather Rau Big East than Wild wonder.
Speaker 1 (16:55):
Day hours on the nurselog gather.
Speaker 3 (16:58):
Rau, Welcome back to the country and welcome back Michael
ivery Rabobanks, Singapore based global strategists. As I teased before
the break, what's the best business to be in food
or munitions in twenty twenty five?
Speaker 5 (17:13):
Wow, you're not really giving me much of a choice
if there's the only table that's literally what you call
a guns or butter choice, isn't it? As we used
to say in political terms, I actually think food in
one respect one key respect here. First of all, you
have to have food. You don't have to have guns,
although at the moment of course everybody wants guns. But
(17:33):
another key one which people are overlooking, which is this.
Right now, everyone's very gung ho about the military sector,
and I think rightly I've been arguing that for years.
But if you're talking about producing the stuff, and if
you're talking about holding shares, you know, equity in that
kind of sector, you have to remember that once national
security gets involved, which it is, big profits aren't allowed.
(17:56):
There's a word for people and companies that make really
mega profit by selling things to the state that they
need in an emergency, and it's called profiteering. And I
don't know if you have any personal memory of how
profiteering used to be treated during things like World War Two,
But it involve bullets and not as gifts. So if
that's going to be the case, I would imagine that
(18:17):
if we have to rearm a lot more, it's going
to be a lot lower profit margins. With the government
saying this is too important for people to make a
lot of money doing. I don't see that happening in food.
I can see food being propped up by the state
in various different ways if necessary, and hopefully judiciously in
terms of you know, key things like infrastructure, but you
still need to actually make a return on farming to
(18:38):
do it. So between the two, you know, someone who
likes markets food, not guns.
Speaker 3 (18:43):
We're always on a state of turmoil here on planet Earth.
We've got Russia, the Ukraine, Israel, Hamas, now India versus
Pakistan on the doomsday clock sort of scenario. Is this
the most unsettled we've been since I don't know, the
Huban missile crisis of the early nineteen sixties.
Speaker 5 (19:03):
Well, we have had a couple of very big wars,
you know, in the past couple of decades, involving Iraq,
of course, which had a lot more death and destruction
than we're currently seeing. But in terms of the breadth
of the problem and the structural depth of the problem,
not in any one geography, but just in terms of
the entire picture we're looking at. Yes, because as you've
(19:25):
heard me say many times over the years, Jamie, the
entire global architecture that we built post Cold War is
crumbling around us, absolutely crumbling. You might not feel it
on a farm in New Zealand day in, day out,
but I can assure you lots of people in other
geographies are and in fact, interestingly, if you look at
all the places you just listed and some of the
others that are on the you know, unfortunately on the
(19:47):
short list to be joining them, all of them are
key pivot points in terms of where we think global
trade flows or the borders of new global trade blocks
will sit. And that is not a coincidence in any way,
shape or form.
Speaker 3 (20:01):
Who impresses you on the world stage. Now I know
Sakia Starmer doesn't impress British farmers one iota, but he
seems to be making himself felt on the world stage.
Speaker 5 (20:14):
Could he be, then, you diplomat, No, let's go back
to the short answer that I really go on. I
very much doubt it. You have to basically start with
a strong base at home. Now he's got a very
very strong one in terms of his position in parliament.
That's undeniable. But if you actually look at where he
is in the opinion polls right now, it's very low
(20:35):
and almost every policy that he appears to be putting
forward at the moment is going down like a lead balloon.
So it's not that he isn't trying. He's certainly doing
what many prime ministers and presidents do when they're in
on a sticky wicket, which is, let's try and look
good internationally to build a bit of kudos domestically. But
it's honestly really going down like a lead balloon so.
Speaker 3 (20:54):
Far, okay, So it just boils down to Trump versus Shijingping.
Speaker 5 (21:00):
Well, Putin's in the mix too, and I wouldn't rule
out India's Modi Prime Minister. Modi very powerful figure who's
certainly capable of implementing enormous changes depending on what he
decides to do. And even with Trump there in the
next few hours, the Prince Muhammad bin Salman in Saudi Arabia.
He's really a mover and shaker getting things done. So
(21:20):
there are people out there that really can shift things,
but not as many of them are the traditional European
or Anglo Saxon talking heads you know that we're used
to from the past. This is a different world now.
We have to listen to a broader variety of people.
Speaker 3 (21:35):
Could a Chicago born American pope get Trump to calm
the farm?
Speaker 5 (21:41):
Calm the farm?
Speaker 3 (21:43):
Another New Zealand saying, Okay, I.
Speaker 5 (21:45):
Like that one. I haven't heard that.
Speaker 4 (21:48):
Well.
Speaker 5 (21:48):
I don't really think Trump listens to popes or priests
that much. I think it was entertaining in terms of
a headline to actually have a made in America pope,
just when we've got all the issue of tariffs going around,
and that we've got white smoke on the pope and
on the rumored US China trade deal which came out
of Monday on the same day. So there's a bit
of a divine intervention there, perhaps, But I don't think
(22:11):
the Pope himself is going to be directing any kind
of policy for the US, be it geopolitical or trade.
Speaker 3 (22:18):
Hey, on a lighter note, just to finish, Trump accepting
the seven four seven jumbo jet from the Katari royal
family worth nearly seven hundred million dollars. Of course he'd
accept that, he said, you'd be stupid not to.
Speaker 5 (22:31):
Well, yeah, they offered me one. I'd take one too.
I don't necessarily think that it's completely appropriate, although it
is apparently a more nuanced argument than it's being presented
by some. But nonetheless not a good look. And you know,
looks so very important. But that's not actually the craziest
head one they've had today. It's actually yesterday last night.
We got it quite late here in Asia that Trump
is apparently going to meet the president of Syria today
(22:54):
or he may do. That's the rumor. Who is a
former al Qaeda member, So that shows how the world's changing.
But the rumor is that the president of Syria is
offering to build Trump Tower in Damascus. Well, we still
have massacres going on in the suburbs, so it doesn't
mean he's going to go along with that. But you know,
it's a wacky world of sports out there at the moment.
Speaker 3 (23:12):
It really is we live in a crazy world. Michael
every Rubbobanks, Singapore based global strategists, love your time, love
you work here on the Country. Thank you bad to
the bone? Is that the Trumpster? All right? Some of
your feedback interesting from Glenn, Thank you, Prime Minister, about
time this show, I e. The Country played the counter
factual to Bryce McKenzie and Jane Smith's unscientific populist bullsh bs.
(23:40):
Angry boomers doing cutting edge research on Facebook on the
toilet should not be given the auctions oxygen they get,
says Glenn. Well, Bryce is a boomer, Jane might be
a wee bit consulted by that one. And here's another one. Okay,
Prime Minister, you want us to stay in the Paris Accord,
how about getting the methane calculations right eg GWP Starr calculations.
(24:04):
We're going to tell you more about that with Katie
Meln She's coming up shortly. But up next Rural news
and sports News. I don't know man, Welcome back to
the Country, brought to you by Brandt. My name's Jamie McKay.
Up next, Rural news and sports News. But first, here's
(24:26):
a product that I'm really interested in as someone who's
got to share in a dairy farm. Milk prices they're
up there down and let's be honest, they can really
mess with your planning. That's why I Figured the key
we farm financial software, trusted by over half of New
Zealand's dairy farmers, has launched milk income price protection. It's
like an insurance for your milk price. You lock in
(24:46):
a minimum and if the market drops you covered, but
if the price goes up you still get the higher return.
No catch, just more certainty. Set up takes minutes, not weeks.
I think that's a really appealing feature of this. It's fast,
easy and built for farmers, not for finance gurus. There's
one clear upfront premium, no surprises, and it's backed by
(25:08):
stone X, one of the biggest names in agri risk
management worldwide. So if you're tired of being at the
mercy of milk prices, this could be a game changer
for you and your farm. Check it out at Figured
dot com, Ford slash milk. That's fig. You are ed
dot com Ford slash milk. Take control of your milk
income and plan with confidence with Figured.
Speaker 1 (25:31):
The country's world news with cub Cadet New Zealand's leading
right on lawn Bower brand. Visit steel Ford dot co
dot nz for your local stocks.
Speaker 3 (25:40):
And Michelle's gone missing an action with rural news, but
I've got plan B. It's the Lincoln College Rugby Football
Club Reunion. Lincoln was known as Lincoln College from nineteen
sixty one to eighty nine. Registration's close, it stumps this Friday.
Google LCRFC Lincoln College Rugby Football Club reus union and
(26:01):
register's going to be drinks on Thursday, the twenty second
dinner and speeches on Friday and lunch and of course
the rugby at Lincoln University on the Saturday. So that's
your rural news.
Speaker 1 (26:14):
Sport with AFCO, Visit them online at AFCO dot co
dot Nz.
Speaker 3 (26:19):
So Australian sailor Nathan Alteridge will replace Peter Berling as
the skipper of Team New Zealand and Scott Dixon's finished
with the fourth fastest lap time in the opening practice
session at the Indianapolis five hundred. He's completed a lap
at three hundred and sixty two kilometers an hour that
(26:40):
is quick, almost as quick as Nick Fisher. On the
way to the Wanaka Amp show along the Ida Valley.
Up next Katie Katie Milne and why we need to
change the way we met them Measure methane loves a
(27:01):
lawful joelgan on Yesterday's conversation on the Country was all
about the ruminant methane survey from Groundsweal, methane science, accord
and enz farming. Another conversation was whether we should be
in or out of Paris. I'm going to come back
to that one. But some interesting feedback I got on
the show yesterday via the text line came from Katie Milne,
(27:23):
West Coast dairy farmer, former president of Federated Farmers, the
woman who broke the grass ceiling. And Katie, you, for
your sins, had to go to one of those cop
conferences and you're up in arms about us not using
GWP star as a measuring mechanism for methane.
Speaker 2 (27:42):
Yeah.
Speaker 6 (27:42):
Actually, for my sins, I've been two of them, to
be fair, but it was interesting. The first one I
went to was part of the New Zealand delegation and
the data and research had not too long been out
about global warming potential star versus global warming potential one
hundred and that clearly showed that there was less impact
(28:03):
from me, sane, and if you didn't add animals to
your system, you weren't increasing warming. That was put forward
by myself and others in conversations around the traps over there,
and why wouldn't this be accepted or when can this
be brought into the system because it's a fear away,
it's been peer reviewed and it does reflect properly what
(28:28):
actually happens with warming, And to my charge, in horror,
a lot of people said, yep, that's all good. It
can come into the mix at some stage, but it
won't be till quite a few years down the road
because of the psychical nature of the cops and metrics
will be done at that stage. I think it's twenty nineteen,
in about another seven years so, and I just like flabbergacid.
(28:51):
It's like, if you've got cutting edge data research, it's
peered reviewed and makes sense and is accepted by the IPC,
what on earth wouldn't you put it through? Because aren't
we after the best results for the planet all around
and for whatever industry you're in, obviously or sector, but
especially for farmers all around the globe. This was a
(29:14):
message that actually, if you're doing things as efficiently as
you can with your animals. That's okay, that's.
Speaker 5 (29:22):
The direction you should go.
Speaker 6 (29:23):
So that it sort of really locked me for six
actually that there was not a lot of interest in
pursuing it at any pace whatsoever.
Speaker 3 (29:31):
So if we use GWP star as a measuring mechanism,
the methane problem from ruminants basically disappears off the face
of the earth because there is no increased warming from animals.
But the counter argument to that one, and I'm only
playing devil's advocate here, Katie, is people will the climate change.
People will say, are half of New Zealand's emissions come
(29:54):
from animals?
Speaker 6 (29:56):
Well, that's a thing to do with our per capita
and what our country has gone that our animals are
still the most efficient. Our production system is the most
efficient for methane, you know, per kilogram of output on
the planet. So you know, you've got to balance up
what is actually happening to the to on the broader
(30:17):
scheme of things versus just actually New Zealand. Your number
is high.
Speaker 5 (30:21):
Why is it high.
Speaker 6 (30:22):
It's not because we've got industrial car manufacturing and lots
and lots and lots of coal fired generation. We've got
a little bit. We have this, you know, grass feed,
beef and meat milk, which in land, which everybody's looking for.
If you go and look at what trends are around
the world for consumers, they're moving towards that natural feed
(30:45):
product hell for lever as fast as they can get
it because they are seeing that that way is the
way to go. And why not take New Zealand products
because it actually has a low carbon footprint as well.
Speaker 3 (30:57):
No, you won't get an argument for me just on
the Paris Climate Agreement whether we should be in or
out and ground swallow jumping up and down about this one.
Right as we speak, they're starting a new campaign on
this one. I know you didn't hear them, but Christopher
Luxon said on the show earlier, if we pull out
of Paris, European countries are going to kick us to
touch and it's going to cost farmers of fortune.
Speaker 6 (31:20):
Well, that will be an interesting one to see because
it's I hope he's absolutely wrong, because our product is
top not all those things, as we know, but when
people go around the globe and talk to people, your
average punter doesn't talk about that at all. And the
Paris Agreement did say you have to protect food security
in the process of trying to reduce your emissions. So
(31:42):
you know, we know about amissions leakage. If we don't
do it, someone else picks it up and they don't
do it as efficiently, so overall it's a net loss
for the planet. But yes, I know people and myself
when I've traveled around you talk to consumers, they want
food security and maybe it's a tiny, tiny, tiny few
points zero zero one that look at the carbon and go, yep,
(32:06):
you've got to have this number right. But again, we
haven't told the story properly. We just get in an
echo chamber when we go to those sort of talks.
I feel and we played the orchestra that's singing at
the time, which is you have to reduce your number,
regardless of what it means. So we really have to
get our story out there better. And we all hear
(32:28):
that all the time, but it's the truth.
Speaker 3 (32:31):
We need to take them on our journey. Katie, I
hate that word. Hey, how are things on the West Coast?
Just to finish on house your season winding up? If
you dried up, dry it up, try it off yet Katie.
Speaker 6 (32:43):
We haven't, We haven't quite dried off yet it's been
a cracker second half. First half was too wet, it
went dry straight away, but it's been very, very mild
and so we've only had a couple of frocks in
May and the grass is still checking over, starting to
slow off as the sunshine ours drop. But you know,
it's looking pretty good for us, so we'll take it
(33:04):
every time.
Speaker 3 (33:04):
Oh Katie, I'll leave you to go away and ponder
what you're going to do with all your money this season.
Always enjoy your inputs to the country. And thanks for
listening yesterday.
Speaker 6 (33:13):
All good, Thanks Jamie, Thank you.
Speaker 3 (33:16):
Katie makes a lot of sense, doesn't she. Up next
for off to the spates Alehouse and Parmi North good
very real time. Love catching up with this bloke on
the country because he's one of the best blokes in
the country. How about that for an intro Craig Wiggy
Wiggins rural and mental health campaigner. I hear that you're
(33:37):
going to be loitering with intent tonight at the best
at the best get it right spates Alehouse in the country,
Palmei North.
Speaker 2 (33:46):
Tonight, Yeah, made on my guest up here with timun
beneath Edlin and of course Enerson's as well and looking
forward to it. They've got a mental health awareness night
and Lean on the Gate night and it's combined with
the food and beverage and tasting as well. I see
you a copy of the menu. It's pretty flash.
Speaker 3 (34:03):
Yeah, it's flash a right, and also the Kadrona distilleries involved,
so they've got bear and whiskey matches with all five courses.
What is the fundraising What are you raising funds for?
Speaker 2 (34:14):
So the Lean on a Gate campaign made them all
about getting the mental health and awareness around them, strengthening
communities all throughout New Zealand. So Tim's been great. Tim
and Benissa been great to us when we've been happy
for the Royal Games and they said we would like
to get behind you and then support you in that space.
So I'm really grateful for that year.
Speaker 3 (34:31):
What else are you up to because Leen on a
Gate talk to a mate's not your ownly arm.
Speaker 2 (34:36):
Oh yeah, there's a fair but going on. I mean
on the park of the course as well. I had
a lot of racetracks around the country and my life's
pretty busy these days away from home, but very shortly
we're heading around the country slave McFarland, myself and a
representative Andrew Roland from Fullsight Bar and we're doing a
lot of talks throughout New Zealand on the Lean on
the Gate campaign and also from there. Once we've done
(34:58):
those talks a lot of the clubs, we will be
able to initiate some training for those people that want
to be more involved in supporting their communities and wellness
and well being and maybe even suicide says.
Speaker 3 (35:10):
And if that's not enough, as soon as we finish
this phone conversation, Craig Wiggy Wiggins, you're off to address
the young adults. I won't say the kids at Fielding
Agricultural High although they've dropped the agricultural, but it's just
Fielding High. It is one of the great schools in
this country.
Speaker 2 (35:27):
Yeah, definitely, Jamien. I went to Fielding ag Culture High
School back in the eighties and came Dixon and the
crew from where at the Rural games during the sharing
and they asked if I'd come back and talk about
career choices and how life can change and stuff like that.
And I've had so many different changes in my life
just with the connections that I've had, like yourself for example,
over the years. And yeah, so it's a bit of
(35:47):
a progress to go back. There's one hundred agriculture and
horticultural students that'll get to listen to me this afternoon,
do so, that's awesome.
Speaker 3 (35:53):
A whole lot of good rugby players came out of
Fielding egg I think of the White Locks, Aaron Smith
and many others. Too many to mention.
Speaker 2 (36:01):
What happened to you, oh, mate, I was always a horseman,
so I changed shows a different path. But yeah, even
on the women's side, load to Herny, Sarah Herny and
some of those ladies that came out of Fielding Eggs
School as well. It's been great rugby college that probably
gets under mentioned except for on your show.
Speaker 3 (36:20):
Great Rugby College, no doubt about it. Before I let
you go, When you're not gallivanting around the country doing
God's work and the space of rural and mental health,
you're living in mid Canterbury. I know that you're sort
of a bit more of a town or your lifestyle
of these days. But how's the Mid Canterbury season going?
Speaker 2 (36:39):
It's so weird there, mate. You never realized just how
much you actually looked forward to a Northwestern until yesterday
where she finally got one. We had one hundred and
eighty mills there one week and then another twenty five
on top of it last Friday, So the place is
probably drenched to be fair, but there's been plenty of
good grass growth. But the arable guys will tell you,
any of those guys will tell you it's been a
tough season on them. Getting grows well at the.
Speaker 3 (37:01):
Spates Alehouse in Palmerston, North and I mean this hand
on heart. It is the best spaits alehouse in the country.
And there's a few good ones. There's a good one
on Hamilton, no doubt we'll see them at field days.
You enjoy the potato doughnuts, the tatia tuna, the boiler
which is the chicken and smokey or dumplings. I'm not
quite sure on that one. WIGGI. You've got the pork belly,
and then you've got the espresso pannacotta, all with Emerson's
(37:25):
and Kadrona Distillery matches and it's all going for a
good cause. SALEO to Tim and Bernie at the Alehouse
all do you know.
Speaker 2 (37:32):
We're having a coffee with them now, So thank you.
Very much.
Speaker 3 (37:35):
Good on you, Wiggy better mention, Queen's down underneed and
another couple are really good Alehouses Radio. Some of your feedback, Jamie,
Katie is a breath of fresh air, good honor for
standing up and being counted. Well done you forgetting her
on the country. Always a pleasure to have her on.
And here's an interesting one. Look at what happened with Bremworth.
The customer's customer was more concerned about price than sustainable.
(38:00):
Can Rob Hewitt not see that when he puts on
his Agri zero in zed hat? Interesting feedback, We love
it here on five double nine. Text that number with
field Day's your name and where you're listening from, and
you could win a double pass tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (38:14):
See you.
Speaker 1 (38:15):
Then catch all the latest from the land. It's the
Country podcast with Jamie McGue Thanks to Brent, your specialist
in John Deere Machinery.
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