November 4, 2025 • 39 mins
Jamie Mackay talks to Christopher Luxon, Jane Smith, Andrew Murray, and Stefan Vogel.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie mckuye. Thanks to Brent the starkest of
the leading agriculture brands.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
Gooda New Zealand. Welcome to the Country. I'm Jamie McKay
The show is brought to you by Brandt put a
Dragon today for Robert Taylor guitarist Sadney sadly no longer
with us. Big news story if you haven't caught up
with it this morning's announcement that the unemployment rate at
five point three percent in the September quarter. According to
(00:50):
stats nd ZED, it's the highest rate since December twenty sixteen,
up from five point to ascent. One hundred and sixty
thousand kiwis unemployed in the September quarter, as measured by
the Household Labor Force Survey. The increase was pretty much
in line with what economists had expected, and despite the
(01:11):
grim numbers, economists said there were promising signs in today's data.
We might touch on those a week bit later. I
think the general consensus seems to be that maybe unemployment
has peaked. We're going to talk about the effect that
unemployment and inflation have on interest rates. The OCR a
bit later in the hour with Stephan Vogel out of
(01:33):
Rabobank's Sydney office. But we're going to kick it off
with Prime Minister Chris Luxon caught up with them a
weeb bit earlier this morning. Have you seen the Pike
River movie? Has Chris Luxon seen the Pike River movie?
Who would he like to play him in the movie?
Jane Smith outspoken north Otago farmer on the show today.
(01:53):
And Andrew Murray, We're going to have a look at
the Global Dairy Trade auction overnight. He's the CFO Chief
on Antil Officer. My first question to him will be,
is a ten dollar milk price now in danger after
yet another downward GDT auction two point four percent across
the index whole milk powder perhaps even more worryingly down
(02:15):
two point seven percent. Michelle will be in with the
latest and rural news and I'll have sports news for you. No,
Jordi Barrett, he's out for the season. That will be
a loss for the All Blacks. He's been one of
their best this year. But I guess it does throw
up open the option of Quintupier, Vestfianing and Nukoop Midfield
(02:41):
the Bruce Brothers. Think about that one up next, Christopher Luxen.
(03:01):
Wednesdays on the Country, the Prime Minister kicks off the show.
It's always a pre record because he's a busy man.
I said to you, Christopher Luxen, let's do this a
quote made famous by your predecessor or one of your predecessors. Jacinda,
who's starring in the Pike River movie. Have you seen
it yet?
Speaker 3 (03:19):
I haven't seen the movie. I've heard about about it,
but I haven't seen it. I'll look forward to watching
it at some point.
Speaker 2 (03:24):
I know you're good mate. John Key hasn't seen it,
and I don't think he'll want to see it either
because the bloke who plays him as a gormless idiot,
and I thought, oh, that's a bit tough on Key.
But then when it comes to the Jacinda role, she's
playing herself with Robin Malcolm and Lucy Lawless, both great
actresses but obviously Green Party activists. It's quite political.
Speaker 3 (03:45):
Well I can't seen that, so I can't really comment
on about it and fairness, but I'll check it out.
Speaker 2 (03:50):
Who would you get to play you in a movie?
We're going to get to the serious stuff shortly.
Speaker 3 (03:54):
I reckon, I reckon, Jason Stavim, Actually I think.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
You are you talking us south up a bit there,
aren't you?
Speaker 3 (03:59):
I reckon? I reckon I am. But you know, what
was that last movie The beehivey, Yeah, the High Safe.
That's sort of what I sort of do at the
Beehive here. So you know, maybe Jason Stath America a
tough guy.
Speaker 2 (04:09):
Were you a tough guy or were you a pussy
cat when it came to and I'm being a bit
cheeky here, Prime Minister, please excuse me at apet Everyone's no, no,
everyone's always sucking up to Trump. And that's what it
kind of looked like. I mean, you don't want to
upset him in case he slapped some more tariffs on you.
And I'm not blaming you for that at all, but
everyone's bowling and scraping to him.
Speaker 4 (04:31):
Oh.
Speaker 3 (04:31):
I actually found it a really good interaction, Like I'd
had a really good chat with him on the telephone
when he got elected as president, and it was actually
just a personal leader to leader sort of conversations really
that took place when we had our time together. We
knew a lot of people in common from my time
in America, and it was a good chance actually just
(04:51):
to build a relationship, get to know each other a
bit more. And then we went into a dinner with
six other leaders hosted by the Korean president, which was
really good. So and talked to more about issues across
the region and around the world. So no, I think
it was those meetings are just so important because it's yes,
there's the formal parts of the meetings, but it's a
chance to build a relationship. And in that case, you know,
(05:13):
President Trump had formal meetings with China as you saw,
and also with Korea in Korea, and then he made
time for us to have a personal catch up as well,
which was really good of him. So no, look, I
mean it's really important. My job is to get on
with all the leaders and to be able to pick
up the phone when we've got issues or opportunities as
we've done around trade on EU and cp TPP coming
(05:33):
together in the next three weeks in Melbourne to talk
about how they work together. That's all good stuff. So no,
the relationships really matter.
Speaker 2 (05:41):
So Trump seems to like leaders from Australasia. He likes
Elbow does logic then follow that we'll get a submarine
sub base here.
Speaker 3 (05:50):
No, No, I mean I think you know we're you know,
the US administration is under no doubt about our view
on tariffs. Equally, we're under no doubt about their position
on tariffs, and that's not for changing. We have the
lowest tariffraid of anyone with a surplus. Obviously, we'll keep
looking at whether we've go in a surplus or definite
situation going forward. But what I am proud about, Jamie,
(06:11):
is our exporters are doing an exceptionally good job of
adjusting to that dynamic in the US and fact our
exports are still up. But the point is also they've
also know they've also been very agile at getting into
other markets as we've created opportunities in the EU and
the GCC and the Indian FTA and all those kind
of places. I mean, trade with India. I think there's
up over fifteen seventeen percent when I last checked, and
(06:33):
we haven't even closed out an FTA yet. So you know,
there's some really good guys are really good at just
moving product into the right places where the best margins
are to get the best returns for their farmers.
Speaker 2 (06:43):
Are we finally seeing the economy turn and I know
that you've been waiting anxiously, like a cat on hot coals,
really for this to happen, because there's been so many
things that have gone against you or are gone against
our economy in the past year or so. But we're
starting to get the mix in there with lower interest rates,
good export returns, Unemployment will be higher again today. I
(07:08):
assume we don't know as we record this, but it
looks like it could be peaking.
Speaker 3 (07:13):
Yeah. Look, I think unemployment definitely is peaking, and it's
the last thing that gets sorted as you clean up
a recession. But look, you got to look at it.
There's some really encouraging things going on. You know, job
ads are up three and a half percent. To think
consents we're up twelve percent over the last quarter. Exports
are up another four percent. You've got people like the
ports of Auckland and Freightway saying they're having really good
activity going through. You've got the bank saying there's less
(07:35):
loan areas and they had planned or fought. You know,
you've got business confidence up this week and other eight points.
You've got farmer compas highspen in twenty sixteen, So there
is lots of you know, as I've said, that's sort
of like you start the recoveries underway, we've suddenly seen
it lead out first through the primary industries, through the
rural communities. It's coming into Auckland and through the urban centers.
(07:55):
And you know as we go forward from here growth
gets better. The question now is let's not just watch
growth come back. It's actually shaped where this country goes
from here on through because we actually have a fantastic
future out there in the big world and we want
to actually we realize all that potential.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
So you could have a couple of things working for
you next year come election time, and improving economy, economy
on the way back up. And to Party mari the
gift that keeps on giving.
Speaker 3 (08:19):
Well, they're just not serious people to party Marie. I
mean they are activists. They come to Parliament, they performative.
I have not had a single policy exchange with them
on any ideas to advance outcome from Maori or non Maori.
You know, we have put a laser back to basics
education policy across the country. Now we're getting huge results.
I think, you know, Maori kids at or exceeding expectation.
(08:39):
New entrants five year olds after twenty weeks in school
because of the way we're teaching everyone the same way
to read with phonics is up. You know, I think
eighteen percent of those needing help is down fifteen percent.
So you never get into a policy conversation with to
party Marie on any of that sort of stuff. But frankly,
it's hip kids that wants to work with them, not me.
I won't be working with them, and so he's the
(09:01):
one that wants to working at chaos. And just imagine Ithipkins.
You know, I re Debbie Chloe Madama. That's quite a combination.
Speaker 2 (09:09):
Doesn't bear thinking about a cup and show week. Next
week you'll be down there, I think on the Friday.
It's your hometown. Christ Church is a city. It's really
on the up, in fact, of any city in this country.
It's doing the best.
Speaker 3 (09:22):
It's doing exceptionally well, exceptionally well. And you know, it's
a fantastic city obviously rebuilt you know, through the John
Key era within response to the earthquake, with fantastic infrastructure
in New State. Institute open early next year. But you
know it's also a great you know, I love that
amp sh I haven't been going as a little five
year old and six year old, and it was always
a real highlight.
Speaker 5 (09:42):
Of a year.
Speaker 3 (09:43):
So now it's always great to get down there and
it'll be a fantastic show as always.
Speaker 2 (09:47):
Jason Statham aka Christopher Luxen. I'll see you there next week.
Thanks for your time.
Speaker 3 (09:52):
Have a great week.
Speaker 4 (09:53):
See.
Speaker 2 (09:55):
Yes, something we prepared earlier this morning before we knew
those unemployment numbers came in as expected at five point
three percent. Some of your text feedback coming in on
five double o nine, someone saying I'm seeing the Pike
River movie this afternoon. Interesting story behind it, and here's
another one. Doctor Evil could play Luxon. Yeah, well, Jason Stathan,
(10:20):
the movie's not The Beehive, by the way, it's The
bee Keeper, and it's not bad. I mean, if you
like gratuitous violence and killing a whole lot of baddies,
Jason Stathan's pretty good at It gets seventy one percent
on Rotten Tomatoes, so what's not to like about that?
Up next, Jane Smith. Before the end of the Andrew Murray, CFO,
(10:41):
chief financial Officer for Fonterra, another disappointing global dairy trade
auction down two point four percent whole milk powder down
two point seven percent. We haven't had a positive GDT
auction for three months to the day. August the fifth
was the last one we had that was in an
upward direction. And still and Vogel out of Rabobank's Sydney
(11:02):
office before the end of the hour. On ocr cuts
or the potential for them here in New Zealand. If
you're wondering whether to fix or float, we might have
some useful information for you. But up next Jane Smith.
Speaker 4 (11:16):
Oh yeah, brooking car waiting here for the time fad.
Speaker 2 (11:31):
She's a North Otago farmer. Her name is Jane Smith,
has a regular slot here on the country. You never
die wondering what she's thinking. I want to start with
yesterday's chat with Nikola Willis, the Finance minister who was
standing quite happily in a cow paddick in North Canterbury.
With this new technology, the urine spreader plugged into the
back end of a cow. The mind boggles. Jane Smith.
(11:53):
How's this going to work?
Speaker 6 (11:56):
Jamie? I always get concerned when I see a photo
shoot with a politician and a paddock flanked by overpaid
bureaucrats and suits, ties and gum boots that are probably
never seen mud nor hard work. And so you know,
I guess I'm rather than the how, I'm more concerned
about the y. So I guess you know again, it's
another venture capital stunt by the egg industry that is
(12:19):
actually using taxpayer money. And I did hear Nicholas say
it was government money, Yes, but it comes from the taxpayer, right,
And I think as a sect that we need to
be very very careful that we're not asking the tax
pat's paying for every PR stunt and the egg septor Now,
I'm not minimizing the nitrate issue. I mean, there's been
some really good research going into there, and there needs
to be more research, but I absolutely will minimize the
(12:40):
emissions issue in terms of the not to fox side.
I mean, you look at it as point three percent
of greenhouse gases, and water vapor itself is ninety six percent.
So gosh, we're going around around the Mulbi bush spending
a lot of money, and there's a lot of people
seet to make a lot of money out of methane mitigation. Jamie,
you and I have took about this is so so long,
(13:01):
and actually we need to actually be looking at the
real issues, not these you know it, they're all saying
when things go wrong at the circus, you bring the
clowns out to distract you. And you know, greenhouse gases
are a very small as you particularly naturally biogenic greenhouse gases.
We need to look at the real issues, i e.
You know, infrastructure, second world healthcare that we have. New
(13:24):
Zealand is fundraising for their own cancer hospitals, the fact
we can't afford our own fuel, food and energy, Jamie,
And you know, I see she also announced another supermarket
chain will making it a bit easier for another supermarket chain,
but that doesn't fix the fundamental issues that continue to
I guess we continue to pander around the parasy called Jamie.
So that is why it's been fascinating to see a
(13:46):
bit of a change in that globally, Jamie. Even old
woke hold Bill Gates is starting to revoke his position.
Speaker 2 (13:51):
So do you think Trump has changed the narratives there?
Speaker 6 (13:55):
Well, I'm not sure if it's Trump, but I think
I guess that just that whole environment around being able
to just see the woods for the trees and actually
and makes them, you know, bring some sense into this.
And you know Bill Gates, who is again one of
the biggest climate change alarmists and has put a lot
of money into I guess making as all more alarmed,
said last week, the biggest problems are actually poverty, disease,
(14:18):
and food security, and which is what we thought all along,
you know, So this is this is the thing, bringing
it back to the biggest issues and actually adapting for
the climate change because again the climate that was always
changed or would still be in the in the by stage,
and so things like see those the corporates that were
falling over themselves to sign up to those what it's
(14:39):
called science based target initiatives, which is again a trojan
horse for just I guess righteousness. There's been eight hundred
and ninety three companies pull out of that in the
last few months. And that's what we've seen worldwide. Same
thing with the taxonomy nonsense that the New Zealand government
had been caught up in. Same thing with alternative proteins,
soleve grown meat, et cetera. So that's abs be going
(15:00):
out of favor as a consumer thinks, actually I actually
want naturally produced food.
Speaker 2 (15:04):
Okay, Jane, just going back to the urine spreader because
I'm fascinated by this. If they can get this to work,
and it does work, that's a good thing because it
is a major issue greenhouse scarce submissions aside cows peeing
concentrated lots of urine in one place, going into the subsoil.
Speaker 6 (15:23):
Absolutely, Jaman, I'm not minimizing that. I am on again
a guess alarmed that there's people wanting to make a
lot of money out of this rather than actually pulling
back at at the real issue. And again, I mean
going back fifteen probably twenty years now, there was a
product called eco in and that actually slowed the rate
of the soul bacteria converting ammonia into nitrate and nchosoxide,
(15:44):
and that was that had some real merit, But again
the environmentalists didn't like that either. So I think we
need to be very careful that what we're doing is practical,
it's scalable, it's cheap, because we again had this weird
fascination of intensive, expensive interference with our advantage which is
actually a resource advantage for New Zealand as our extensive,
(16:06):
low input pastoral raised system. So we've got to be
very careful we don't turn ourselves into an EU type
of scenario. And I also think that all of these
things also can be a bit of an excuse for
intensifying agriculture, and that is not the way that we
should be going in terms of ge And I guess
all of this again technology that's disguised as something that
(16:29):
we need, when actually we need to make sure that
we are promoting everything that we do naturally first and
foremost we've done a pretty poor job of that.
Speaker 2 (16:36):
Jair go on a couple to finish on. I see
we're banning one of Wellington's only sheep firms.
Speaker 6 (16:42):
I see that. So the Belmont Farm Park, so one
thousand heats and it's pretty easy access for urban people
in Wellington. And now there's a siders that due to
the stock emissions of the sheep emissions, And again this
just shows you another example of blatant misunderstanding of biogenic
eggs that they're going to retire eighty percent of that
(17:02):
park despite the increased fire risk, the weaves, the peats,
and the sad fact that people won't have access to
an actual, working, living, breathing farm. So that just seems ridiculous.
Whereas down in Canterbury, I see the chross Church City
Council are now allowing sheep on the Kennedy Kennedy Bush
track on the porthills where the fire obviously started a
(17:23):
few years ago as a trial to see get this
one will the sheep eat the grass?
Speaker 7 (17:27):
Two?
Speaker 6 (17:28):
Will they keep it short and green? And three will
that decrease the fire risk? I mean hopefully they can.
Probably they can share their research findings with doc because
they've got a million hectores of that type of ground
that they need to actually control those things on. So obviously,
you know, again that's actually wins some sense and sensibility.
I wouldn't call it a trial, but that's actually kicked
in compared to the Wellington City Council. So I see
(17:51):
all regional council. I see there's a petition going for
that Belmont Farm Park. So I wish them well because
it's absolute nonsense, Jamie.
Speaker 2 (17:56):
Just to find the shine. Are you getting dry on
your North Otago farm? We know the Hawks Bay is
getting a bit perilously dry this early in the season.
Speaker 6 (18:04):
Yeah, certainly looks very very dry there. I really feeling
for those farmers up there, and we're probably better than usual,
I guess if you had to say that. So we've
had again, that's six weeks of Norwester's. We had that
snow last week and things have actually been either really
hot or really cold. But we're actually we're probably not
too bad in stock are looking really good in there's
some great cracking lambs coming off the hill, Jamie. So
(18:27):
you know, again, hopefully we can hang in there and
this side of December, if we can get this side
of Christmas in a good season, we usually both well
for a decent summer, Jamie.
Speaker 2 (18:37):
Jane Smith, thanks for your time. I'll lets you get
on with your beef and lamb New Zealand field day
on your New Haven farm today.
Speaker 6 (18:44):
Thanks Jammie.
Speaker 2 (18:46):
Good on your Jane twenty eighth after twelve, you're with
the country. Texts coming in, Jamie. I smell a rat.
Gates has brought up huge tracts of land in the
US and now he's talking food secure from Mark. Someone
else saying spot on Jane, and another person is saying
(19:07):
doctor Evil could play Christopher Luxon in a movie. Up next, Michelle,
with the latest and rural news. We will we'll have
a look at sports news for you. Jeordie's gone for
the season. That's bad news for the All Blacks. I
might ask Andrew Murray, I think he's Scottish, you see,
is Scottish the chief financial officer for Fonterra, whether whether
(19:28):
maybe Scotland could win their first game ever against US
and Stefan Vogel out of Rabobanks Sydney office. Before the
end of the hour, we take a break back with
rural news and sports news. Welcome back to the country.
(19:52):
The show's brought to you by Brandton, Jamie McKay, Shorty
Michelle Watt with the latest and rural news. But first,
farmers and growers looking to score a win by getting
ahead of the game this summer. Well, Farmlands has got
your back. Being prepared for a dry summer spell, that's
the one. Now's the time to invest in your water infrastructure,
you know, ensure tanks, troughs and fittings and pipes are
(20:13):
in good nick, preventing nasties like pests, weeds and disease
from eating away summer gains. That's a win too, scoring
a healthier return because your animals were healthy. Healthier should
I say another one? All possible with the right animal
management tools and products. Looking slick for the social season, Well,
that's just looking like a winner, isn't it. Scrub up
(20:35):
with new summer gear from Farmlands that will take you
from the paddock to the pub. The team at your
local Farmland store or your Farmland's technical field specialist, they're thinking,
like you, what do I need to get sorted to
score a win this summer? So that's suit to chat
too to get some runs on the board head and store,
or order through Farmlands Pro, or talk to your rap
(20:56):
about Farmland's summer office.
Speaker 1 (21:00):
Countries, World news with Cod Cadets, New Zealand's leading right
on lawn bower Bread, visit steel for dot co dots
for your local stuckist.
Speaker 2 (21:09):
Oh, let me turn my microphone up away. That's operator
Era Michelle Watson, Rural News. Good afternoon, by the way, afternoon, Jamie,
how did you oh just and breaking news. Did you
enjoy the coffee shout?
Speaker 7 (21:21):
I did enjoy the coffee shout, Thank you very much, Jamie.
Speaker 2 (21:24):
Because I won the offer sweep. I did buy an
eighth to the field, but half yours got home for me,
which was good. I've actually I won eighty dollars and
the account and me tells me I lost five dollars
on the Melbourne Cup, but I think I might be
more popular.
Speaker 7 (21:42):
He resolve winners because you brought us coffees. And yeah,
you brought popularity. So that's all that matters.
Speaker 2 (21:47):
Yeah, exactly, by your way, buy your way to friendship.
There you go. Well, sorry, rural news.
Speaker 7 (21:53):
Okay, So in rural news, new legislation is now in
place to protect New Zealand's most productive farmland from being
converted into exotic forests. The Climate Change Response Amendment Act
came into effect on October thirty first, restricting forest entry
into the emissions trading scheme on high quality soils. Agriculture
and Forestry Minister Tom McLay says the move supports food
(22:13):
production and rural communities were still allowing foresters to invest
with confidence. Exceptions apply for Maori owned land and erosion
prone areas, and transitional exceptions are available for recent forestry investments.
The Ministry for Primary Industries is offering support and guidance
online on that one. And that's ereral news. What have
you got in sport, Jamie?
Speaker 2 (22:32):
Oh, well, let's find.
Speaker 1 (22:33):
Out sports on the country with AFCO invested in your
foaming success.
Speaker 2 (22:39):
So that legislation came into place when they.
Speaker 7 (22:43):
October so a few days ago.
Speaker 2 (22:44):
Yeah, so effectively Friday. So let's just see what effect
it has on the creep of I can't say the
cancerous creep of carbon farming. That's not right. There's plenty
of places to plant trees, just don't plant it on
good arable pastoral land. Okay, Sports News, it's official. Unfortunately
(23:04):
we've talked about this one. Jordy Barrett won't play any
further part on the All Blacks Grand Slam Tour due
to leg injuries suffered in the win over Ireland and Chicago.
Struggling Liverpool have lifted for Football's Champions League down in
fifteen times fifteen time winners Real Madrid one nil at Anfield.
(23:27):
England Test captain Ben Stokes has extended his central contract.
Excuse me, I'm struggling, but it must be that expensive
coffee I bought. England Test captain Ben Stoke has had.
Stokes has extended his Central contract by a year through
to the end of the next Time Home Ashes series
in twenty twenty seven, aligning his deal with that of
(23:50):
his coach Brendan McCallum. An Indian spinner rav Ashwin says
he's gutted to be missing the entire Big League after
knee surgery. Now talking about well not the Indians but
the West Indians. We've got a ODI no sorry, a
T twenty tonight at Edon Park, right, looking forward to
(24:10):
that one. So there's one tonight at Eden Park. One
tomorrow night at Eden Park against the Windys. And then
we moved to Saxton Oval and Nelson for a couple
over the weekend or ninth and tenth of November, and
next week here in Dunedin at the University Oval. How
good will that be? Up next, Andrew Murray will have
a look at the global dairy trade auction overnight. Well,
(24:38):
I guess it was no surprise because the futures market
was picking it. Yet another drop in the global dairy
trade auction overnight. We haven't had a positive one since
August the fifth, three months exactly to the day. Andrew
Murray is the CFO at Fonterra. First question, and it's
the obvious one. Andrew is ten dollars under threat.
Speaker 8 (24:59):
Now, good afternoon, Jenny. Look as you said, you know,
derivative markets have been pacing this in for a little while,
so I don't think we've seen anything that was unexpected
from that standpoint. You know, there's a lot of milk
around at the moment, and we'll see that pleao in
terms of what's being on the prices, we.
Speaker 2 (25:16):
Seem to have found a floor for skim milk powder.
It was unchanged the GDT index overall down two point
four percent. Whole milk powder obviously the most important one
down two point seven percent. Once we get over these
high spring volumes that were going through right at the moment,
(25:37):
will whole milk powder follow skim milk powder and find
a floor?
Speaker 8 (25:42):
Oh look, I think what we'll get to is, you
know that the New Zealand production is up strong at
the moment, lat is the same from December. We are
going to see the New Zealand volumes sort of drop
off and so not a lot of people sitting in
a lot of inventory, and I think that's potentially going
to put a bit of a full under the place levels.
Speaker 2 (26:01):
And the other thing that's mitigating some of these falls
falls obviously is the exchange. Right we've seen a bit
of a fall there. We're sitting at under US fifty
seven since when I had a look earlier this morning.
I know you do have a hedging policy in place.
You may not be cashing in on all of that.
Maybe you're picking up some of that action for next season.
(26:22):
Are you in the hedging department, Andrew, you'd have to
be is the CFO, wouldn't you?
Speaker 8 (26:27):
Yes, I do do a little bit of the hedging. Yeah, Look,
we'll still have we do still have some money hedged
positions for this season, although it's relatively limited. You know,
we have seen that, we have seen that effex move
and obviously that's a benefit and you know we will
certainly see that through some cover into next season as well.
But yeah, there'll definitely be a positive impact from that perspective.
Speaker 2 (26:45):
So as it stands at the moment, going back to
my original question, if you were to have to come
up with a payout right here today and now, would
it be ten dollars?
Speaker 8 (26:54):
Oh, I'm not going to say it exact number. We
have a range for a reason, and I think we
have those ranges because of all this stuff that we're
seeing play out. You know, we will certainly get in
a space where if we if we feel like we
need to make a change to the to the forecast,
then then we'll come out and do that as soon
as we feel that we need to.
Speaker 2 (27:09):
The fats weren't where it was at overnight. Butter down
four point three percent, cheese down six point six percent.
Speaker 3 (27:17):
Mm.
Speaker 8 (27:19):
Yeah, I mean, I think what are we seeing in
that space? If I look at butter in particular, you know,
we're still seeing a really healthy premium towards in Europe
and the US, and there's a good strong bidding as well.
But you know, you've got to see that there's plenty
of supplier there in the Europe and the US as well.
One thing I will say is that you know, China
is the biggest global market, certainly an important market for butter,
(27:39):
and so our presence there is obviously helping us maintain
a bit of that premium over what we see in
the US and the Europe prices. And I think if
you look at Cheddar, you know, again we do have
a healthy premium there against what's happening in the US
and in Europe. You know, those prices more globally have
slumped a little bit in recent months, and I think
it was just seeking that play out a little bit here,
(28:01):
probably a little bit less in terms of ex New
Zealand supplying in the coming months as well, So I
think we'll certainly see that now I'll have a bit
of a floor again. Maybe our own price is there too.
Speaker 2 (28:11):
You mentioned the Chinese. I think they made up over
half of the demand on last night's auction.
Speaker 8 (28:17):
Yeah, I mean, I mean it comes back to that
Speci right chain is the biggest import market for you know,
Hall milk, Poder, but I think second biggest for skim,
So we're always going to see that come through. And
obviously that you know there are big importers from New
Zealand's right, it's a flavor profile and et cetera that
they're lake and so I think that's and that's helping
us versus what you're currently seeing maybe in some of
(28:38):
that Europe and US space.
Speaker 2 (28:40):
You were mentioning the high volumes coming out of New
Zealand this spring. Was there obviously the storms, particularly in
the South and to a lesser degree, I guess in Canterbury,
But down on the South there's got to have an
effect on production down there. What are you seeing through
your factory at Edendale for instance.
Speaker 8 (28:58):
Yeah, Look, I mean it's having a little bit of
an impact, but volumes are still pretty strong year on
year to be honest, you know obviously you know, you
know the songs, you know, don't say you know. There's
a bit of an issue there in terms of we
had a little bit of an impact on one of
factory roofs, but relatively small.
Speaker 2 (29:19):
You know.
Speaker 8 (29:19):
The biggest piece there will be obviously being on farm
and access to Poe being the biggest space there. So
we support farmers where we can in that space. But
if I look at it as an all roll picture,
it's still pretty strong in terms of production for New Zealand.
Speaker 2 (29:31):
I'm pleased to hear that. With an accent like yours.
You've got. You've got to be rooting for the Scottish
this weekend, Andrew Murray. They've never beaten the All Blacks.
They've drawn twice twenty five of all I think in
nineteen eighty three. And I'm just going off the top
of my head now, because I am a rugby geek
when it comes to stats. I reckon in nineteen sixty four,
(29:52):
sixty three, sixty four it was not all. I'll check
that one. So what chance the Scots. We've got our
captain and vice captain out, We've got half the Lions
back line in your team.
Speaker 8 (30:03):
Well, I mean I'd probably better making a prediction about
that than it would be about milk prices, So you
never know.
Speaker 3 (30:09):
There's the first thing for everything.
Speaker 8 (30:10):
I think it's what we'd say.
Speaker 2 (30:12):
Well, you were sitting on the fence, not only with
the rugby but also with the ten dollars payout, Andrew.
Speaker 8 (30:18):
Well, you know what can I say? I'll always root
for my home team.
Speaker 2 (30:22):
Good on you, mate, Thank you very much for your time.
Will eagerly await perhaps a turnaround in those GDT auctions
and a couple of weeks time. Thanks for your time,
no problem, cheer Jimmy sixteen away from one. Thanks Andrew.
Your Bush telegraph didn't take long. The definitive knowledge of
(30:43):
all things rugby, Graham Parnal Edgar has confirmed it was
nil all in nineteen sixty four, sixty three, sixty four
Test Wilson winner ay the captain a young Brian Lahore
on that one pine tree means cal Tremaine. What a
great side that was, A young earl curtain as well.
All my faith at all. Blacks Kirky wasn't on that tour, though.
Some of your feedback from Bryce Mackenzie wherever I heard
(31:07):
that name before. That's right, Bryce is the co founder
of ground Throw. He says, isn't it refreshing to hear
such a sensible interview? Go get them Jane Smith. So
in no guessing what Bryce thinks. And here's someone who's
not such a big fan of Jane. The usual self
justifying emoji of a turd from Jane Smith, the pollution
(31:29):
enabler and Ash the text says, so what if col
urine is diluted, the same amount of nitrates from the
urine still end up in the groundwater diluted or not. Look,
I disagree with you there, Ash, And I'm not a scientist,
because what we're trying to do with the peace spreading
machine is spread the load. So instead of an intensive,
(31:51):
big splash of urine in one place where the plants
can't take it all up, if you spread it evenly
right around the whole padic or pasture, the plants will
take up most of it. There you go, And I
left science behind in the fifth form. Who would know?
Who would have guessed that up? Next Stephan Vogel from
Rabobank up to Sydney. Now on the country. There we
(32:20):
find Stephan Vogel Rabobank's GM of RABO Research for Australia
in New Zealand. Stephan, you guys are about to release
your November Agribusiness monthly. I want to start if I can,
on interst rates and exchange rates, particularly interest rates. Our
OCR is currently sitting at two point five there is
(32:41):
talk of another drop late this month to two point
twenty five. Yours in Australia is sitting at three point
six percent. Why is yours so much higher than ours?
Speaker 5 (32:50):
Yeah, that's a very good question. Look in the race
of putting interest rates higher, when every central bank did
that two years ago, we were actually one of the
lead one. We were starting increasing the interest rates much later,
and also on the way down, we started much later.
And the kind of sentiment here has changed quite a bit.
So if we would have talked a month or two ago,
(33:12):
I would say, well, a lot of people in the
market still have several twenty five basis coined cuts in
the forecast for the next six eight months, and those
have more or less evaporated in many of the forecasts
because infilation here in the country is really sticky. So
we have seen a couple of surprises of those numbers
(33:33):
to the upside, and the unemployment numbers, while for a
while looking like they could balance and keep the argument
going that well, maybe the RBA keeps on cutting, all
of that didn't play out. So basically we're at the
point when we look at the latest economic data that
come in. Inflation is sticky, unemployment doesn't justify that we
actually keep on cutting.
Speaker 2 (33:55):
What about here in New Zealand, what chance of us
getting down to two point two five the same because
there was of course talk of us getting to two percent,
but that seems to have dissipated obviously off the back
of higher than expected inflation.
Speaker 5 (34:09):
Exactly, and it's a bit the same in New Zealand.
So we're looking at New Zealand these days, and we
still hold one more cut off twenty five in November.
That is a little questionable, but we will now hold
that forecast. But as you said, there is not a
lot of other cuts expected after that, so that we
might end actually that cutting at two point twenty five.
Speaker 2 (34:31):
So maybe this is as good as it gets. Let's
have a look at the commodity outlooks. I'll start with dairy. Okay, Look,
we've had a global dairy trade auction overnight down again.
Dairy prices are softening and that a lot of that's
due to the supply on the global stage.
Speaker 5 (34:47):
Yeah, that's a little bit the tenure here in the region.
If you look across the board, we see actually really
strong supplies on the world market coming now in and
also if you look at New Zealand, I think volumes
were good, while here in Australia we were actually a
little sluggish. So overall, if you look at it, butter
(35:08):
prices that were really the driving force over the last
let's say two years, we're back down to levels that
we had about six months ago in terms of price,
so they have given quite a bit of downside globally.
And we've also seen that the skim milk and whole
milk powder prices are weakening. So with that global picture
of plenty of supplies and plenty of choices, prices are
(35:32):
getting a bit under pressure and I think it's hard
to imagine that that will change somewhere quickly. We have
gone through a period of tightness in the global market,
but now it seems to be reversing.
Speaker 2 (35:44):
Well, you can't say that about baits still plenty of
demand for that.
Speaker 5 (35:49):
Yes, I think the driver obviously is if you look
at prices locally in New Zealand, they're still very good.
We have seen overall the volumes go down from where
they were last year, and if you think about the
demand on the global picture has been really strong and
that is helped by the US. The US is one
(36:10):
of those big importers these days. They heard, in our view,
is at that point where they start to slightly rebuild,
but it's not going to be a quick one. So
in our view, the good news in that beef market
is there is continued demand, maybe not as strong as
it is now in a year or two from now,
but it's still going to be pretty good in our views.
(36:30):
The problem in that beef market is obviously tariffs, and
New Zealand fases fifteen percent, Australia ten, but Brazil facees
fifty and so in an environment like this, New Zealand
has still been relatively competitive and exported a little more
than last year to the US so far this year
despite the tariffs, Australia shipped actually thirty percent more this
(36:52):
by ten percent tariffs, so that terrifts are not holding
US back as long as they are. There's really low
levels and as ad that demand the market is still good,
which is really really positive for our local prices.
Speaker 2 (37:04):
Let's finish on shape, mate, eleven dollars a kilo at
the moment, albeit that's an off season peak. If you want,
how long can we define gravity? Because varying commentators are
saying varying things. I'm going to be talking to Professor
Keith wood Put on the show tomorrow and he's suggesting
we could see a major correction before Christmas. What do
you think for lamb I'm talking about.
Speaker 5 (37:25):
Yeah, So in the landmarket, I mean for now the
export has been once again a driver here that kept
these prices at these very lofty levels. If we're looking
into the competitive market and that's over here in Australia
are the strong one. We think that a lot of
farmers held back on the lands over the last couple
of weeks get them a little bit higher weights on,
(37:46):
but that they are now getting actually into the period
of selling some more. So the risk is out there
that you're going to face more headwinds from Australian exports
going into that market. So we're fearing that there is
a bit of a correction. If it is a major
one is probably too early to say, but these prices
are pretty lofty as that right now, and we don't
(38:08):
expect them to hold at these really good levels, but
we also don't expect them to fall completely apart.
Speaker 2 (38:14):
Stephan Vogel out of Sydney Rabobanks, GM of RABO Research.
Thanks for your time. You can read all about this
the November Agribusiness Monthly Report on the Rabobank website. I
think it's going to be out tomorrow. Thanks for your time.
Speaker 5 (38:27):
Thank you very much for having me, Jenny, and that.
Speaker 2 (38:33):
Wraps the Country for today. Professor Keith Woodford on the
show tomorrow talking lamb price is going to leave the
final say to Jeff the Texter solution to pollution is dilution.
We'll see you tomorrow, catch.
Speaker 1 (38:49):
You all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie mcguy. Thanks to Brent, you're specialist in
John Deere machinery.
Catch all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie mckuye. Thanks to Brent the starkest of
the leading agriculture brands.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
Gooda New Zealand. Welcome to the Country. I'm Jamie McKay
The show is brought to you by Brandt put a
Dragon today for Robert Taylor guitarist Sadney sadly no longer
with us. Big news story if you haven't caught up
with it this morning's announcement that the unemployment rate at
five point three percent in the September quarter. According to
(00:50):
stats nd ZED, it's the highest rate since December twenty sixteen,
up from five point to ascent. One hundred and sixty
thousand kiwis unemployed in the September quarter, as measured by
the Household Labor Force Survey. The increase was pretty much
in line with what economists had expected, and despite the
(01:11):
grim numbers, economists said there were promising signs in today's data.
We might touch on those a week bit later. I
think the general consensus seems to be that maybe unemployment
has peaked. We're going to talk about the effect that
unemployment and inflation have on interest rates. The OCR a
bit later in the hour with Stephan Vogel out of
(01:33):
Rabobank's Sydney office. But we're going to kick it off
with Prime Minister Chris Luxon caught up with them a
weeb bit earlier this morning. Have you seen the Pike
River movie? Has Chris Luxon seen the Pike River movie?
Who would he like to play him in the movie?
Jane Smith outspoken north Otago farmer on the show today.
(01:53):
And Andrew Murray, We're going to have a look at
the Global Dairy Trade auction overnight. He's the CFO Chief
on Antil Officer. My first question to him will be,
is a ten dollar milk price now in danger after
yet another downward GDT auction two point four percent across
the index whole milk powder perhaps even more worryingly down
(02:15):
two point seven percent. Michelle will be in with the
latest and rural news and I'll have sports news for you. No,
Jordi Barrett, he's out for the season. That will be
a loss for the All Blacks. He's been one of
their best this year. But I guess it does throw
up open the option of Quintupier, Vestfianing and Nukoop Midfield
(02:41):
the Bruce Brothers. Think about that one up next, Christopher Luxen.
(03:01):
Wednesdays on the Country, the Prime Minister kicks off the show.
It's always a pre record because he's a busy man.
I said to you, Christopher Luxen, let's do this a
quote made famous by your predecessor or one of your predecessors. Jacinda,
who's starring in the Pike River movie. Have you seen
it yet?
Speaker 3 (03:19):
I haven't seen the movie. I've heard about about it,
but I haven't seen it. I'll look forward to watching
it at some point.
Speaker 2 (03:24):
I know you're good mate. John Key hasn't seen it,
and I don't think he'll want to see it either
because the bloke who plays him as a gormless idiot,
and I thought, oh, that's a bit tough on Key.
But then when it comes to the Jacinda role, she's
playing herself with Robin Malcolm and Lucy Lawless, both great
actresses but obviously Green Party activists. It's quite political.
Speaker 3 (03:45):
Well I can't seen that, so I can't really comment
on about it and fairness, but I'll check it out.
Speaker 2 (03:50):
Who would you get to play you in a movie?
We're going to get to the serious stuff shortly.
Speaker 3 (03:54):
I reckon, I reckon, Jason Stavim, Actually I think.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
You are you talking us south up a bit there,
aren't you?
Speaker 3 (03:59):
I reckon? I reckon I am. But you know, what
was that last movie The beehivey, Yeah, the High Safe.
That's sort of what I sort of do at the
Beehive here. So you know, maybe Jason Stath America a
tough guy.
Speaker 2 (04:09):
Were you a tough guy or were you a pussy
cat when it came to and I'm being a bit
cheeky here, Prime Minister, please excuse me at apet Everyone's no, no,
everyone's always sucking up to Trump. And that's what it
kind of looked like. I mean, you don't want to
upset him in case he slapped some more tariffs on you.
And I'm not blaming you for that at all, but
everyone's bowling and scraping to him.
Speaker 4 (04:31):
Oh.
Speaker 3 (04:31):
I actually found it a really good interaction, Like I'd
had a really good chat with him on the telephone
when he got elected as president, and it was actually
just a personal leader to leader sort of conversations really
that took place when we had our time together. We
knew a lot of people in common from my time
in America, and it was a good chance actually just
(04:51):
to build a relationship, get to know each other a
bit more. And then we went into a dinner with
six other leaders hosted by the Korean president, which was
really good. So and talked to more about issues across
the region and around the world. So no, I think
it was those meetings are just so important because it's yes,
there's the formal parts of the meetings, but it's a
chance to build a relationship. And in that case, you know,
(05:13):
President Trump had formal meetings with China as you saw,
and also with Korea in Korea, and then he made
time for us to have a personal catch up as well,
which was really good of him. So no, look, I
mean it's really important. My job is to get on
with all the leaders and to be able to pick
up the phone when we've got issues or opportunities as
we've done around trade on EU and cp TPP coming
(05:33):
together in the next three weeks in Melbourne to talk
about how they work together. That's all good stuff. So no,
the relationships really matter.
Speaker 2 (05:41):
So Trump seems to like leaders from Australasia. He likes
Elbow does logic then follow that we'll get a submarine
sub base here.
Speaker 3 (05:50):
No, No, I mean I think you know we're you know,
the US administration is under no doubt about our view
on tariffs. Equally, we're under no doubt about their position
on tariffs, and that's not for changing. We have the
lowest tariffraid of anyone with a surplus. Obviously, we'll keep
looking at whether we've go in a surplus or definite
situation going forward. But what I am proud about, Jamie,
(06:11):
is our exporters are doing an exceptionally good job of
adjusting to that dynamic in the US and fact our
exports are still up. But the point is also they've
also know they've also been very agile at getting into
other markets as we've created opportunities in the EU and
the GCC and the Indian FTA and all those kind
of places. I mean, trade with India. I think there's
up over fifteen seventeen percent when I last checked, and
(06:33):
we haven't even closed out an FTA yet. So you know,
there's some really good guys are really good at just
moving product into the right places where the best margins
are to get the best returns for their farmers.
Speaker 2 (06:43):
Are we finally seeing the economy turn and I know
that you've been waiting anxiously, like a cat on hot coals,
really for this to happen, because there's been so many
things that have gone against you or are gone against
our economy in the past year or so. But we're
starting to get the mix in there with lower interest rates,
good export returns, Unemployment will be higher again today. I
(07:08):
assume we don't know as we record this, but it
looks like it could be peaking.
Speaker 3 (07:13):
Yeah. Look, I think unemployment definitely is peaking, and it's
the last thing that gets sorted as you clean up
a recession. But look, you got to look at it.
There's some really encouraging things going on. You know, job
ads are up three and a half percent. To think
consents we're up twelve percent over the last quarter. Exports
are up another four percent. You've got people like the
ports of Auckland and Freightway saying they're having really good
activity going through. You've got the bank saying there's less
(07:35):
loan areas and they had planned or fought. You know,
you've got business confidence up this week and other eight points.
You've got farmer compas highspen in twenty sixteen, So there
is lots of you know, as I've said, that's sort
of like you start the recoveries underway, we've suddenly seen
it lead out first through the primary industries, through the
rural communities. It's coming into Auckland and through the urban centers.
(07:55):
And you know as we go forward from here growth
gets better. The question now is let's not just watch
growth come back. It's actually shaped where this country goes
from here on through because we actually have a fantastic
future out there in the big world and we want
to actually we realize all that potential.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
So you could have a couple of things working for
you next year come election time, and improving economy, economy
on the way back up. And to Party mari the
gift that keeps on giving.
Speaker 3 (08:19):
Well, they're just not serious people to party Marie. I
mean they are activists. They come to Parliament, they performative.
I have not had a single policy exchange with them
on any ideas to advance outcome from Maori or non Maori.
You know, we have put a laser back to basics
education policy across the country. Now we're getting huge results.
I think, you know, Maori kids at or exceeding expectation.
(08:39):
New entrants five year olds after twenty weeks in school
because of the way we're teaching everyone the same way
to read with phonics is up. You know, I think
eighteen percent of those needing help is down fifteen percent.
So you never get into a policy conversation with to
party Marie on any of that sort of stuff. But frankly,
it's hip kids that wants to work with them, not me.
I won't be working with them, and so he's the
(09:01):
one that wants to working at chaos. And just imagine Ithipkins.
You know, I re Debbie Chloe Madama. That's quite a combination.
Speaker 2 (09:09):
Doesn't bear thinking about a cup and show week. Next
week you'll be down there, I think on the Friday.
It's your hometown. Christ Church is a city. It's really
on the up, in fact, of any city in this country.
It's doing the best.
Speaker 3 (09:22):
It's doing exceptionally well, exceptionally well. And you know, it's
a fantastic city obviously rebuilt you know, through the John
Key era within response to the earthquake, with fantastic infrastructure
in New State. Institute open early next year. But you
know it's also a great you know, I love that
amp sh I haven't been going as a little five
year old and six year old, and it was always
a real highlight.
Speaker 5 (09:42):
Of a year.
Speaker 3 (09:43):
So now it's always great to get down there and
it'll be a fantastic show as always.
Speaker 2 (09:47):
Jason Statham aka Christopher Luxen. I'll see you there next week.
Thanks for your time.
Speaker 3 (09:52):
Have a great week.
Speaker 4 (09:53):
See.
Speaker 2 (09:55):
Yes, something we prepared earlier this morning before we knew
those unemployment numbers came in as expected at five point
three percent. Some of your text feedback coming in on
five double o nine, someone saying I'm seeing the Pike
River movie this afternoon. Interesting story behind it, and here's
another one. Doctor Evil could play Luxon. Yeah, well, Jason Stathan,
(10:20):
the movie's not The Beehive, by the way, it's The
bee Keeper, and it's not bad. I mean, if you
like gratuitous violence and killing a whole lot of baddies,
Jason Stathan's pretty good at It gets seventy one percent
on Rotten Tomatoes, so what's not to like about that?
Up next, Jane Smith. Before the end of the Andrew Murray, CFO,
(10:41):
chief financial Officer for Fonterra, another disappointing global dairy trade
auction down two point four percent whole milk powder down
two point seven percent. We haven't had a positive GDT
auction for three months to the day. August the fifth
was the last one we had that was in an
upward direction. And still and Vogel out of Rabobank's Sydney
(11:02):
office before the end of the hour. On ocr cuts
or the potential for them here in New Zealand. If
you're wondering whether to fix or float, we might have
some useful information for you. But up next Jane Smith.
Speaker 4 (11:16):
Oh yeah, brooking car waiting here for the time fad.
Speaker 2 (11:31):
She's a North Otago farmer. Her name is Jane Smith,
has a regular slot here on the country. You never
die wondering what she's thinking. I want to start with
yesterday's chat with Nikola Willis, the Finance minister who was
standing quite happily in a cow paddick in North Canterbury.
With this new technology, the urine spreader plugged into the
back end of a cow. The mind boggles. Jane Smith.
(11:53):
How's this going to work?
Speaker 6 (11:56):
Jamie? I always get concerned when I see a photo
shoot with a politician and a paddock flanked by overpaid
bureaucrats and suits, ties and gum boots that are probably
never seen mud nor hard work. And so you know,
I guess I'm rather than the how, I'm more concerned
about the y. So I guess you know again, it's
another venture capital stunt by the egg industry that is
(12:19):
actually using taxpayer money. And I did hear Nicholas say
it was government money, Yes, but it comes from the taxpayer, right,
And I think as a sect that we need to
be very very careful that we're not asking the tax
pat's paying for every PR stunt and the egg septor Now,
I'm not minimizing the nitrate issue. I mean, there's been
some really good research going into there, and there needs
to be more research, but I absolutely will minimize the
(12:40):
emissions issue in terms of the not to fox side.
I mean, you look at it as point three percent
of greenhouse gases, and water vapor itself is ninety six percent.
So gosh, we're going around around the Mulbi bush spending
a lot of money, and there's a lot of people
seet to make a lot of money out of methane mitigation. Jamie,
you and I have took about this is so so long,
(13:01):
and actually we need to actually be looking at the
real issues, not these you know it, they're all saying
when things go wrong at the circus, you bring the
clowns out to distract you. And you know, greenhouse gases
are a very small as you particularly naturally biogenic greenhouse gases.
We need to look at the real issues, i e.
You know, infrastructure, second world healthcare that we have. New
(13:24):
Zealand is fundraising for their own cancer hospitals, the fact
we can't afford our own fuel, food and energy, Jamie,
And you know, I see she also announced another supermarket
chain will making it a bit easier for another supermarket chain,
but that doesn't fix the fundamental issues that continue to
I guess we continue to pander around the parasy called Jamie.
So that is why it's been fascinating to see a
(13:46):
bit of a change in that globally, Jamie. Even old
woke hold Bill Gates is starting to revoke his position.
Speaker 2 (13:51):
So do you think Trump has changed the narratives there?
Speaker 6 (13:55):
Well, I'm not sure if it's Trump, but I think
I guess that just that whole environment around being able
to just see the woods for the trees and actually
and makes them, you know, bring some sense into this.
And you know Bill Gates, who is again one of
the biggest climate change alarmists and has put a lot
of money into I guess making as all more alarmed,
said last week, the biggest problems are actually poverty, disease,
(14:18):
and food security, and which is what we thought all along,
you know, So this is this is the thing, bringing
it back to the biggest issues and actually adapting for
the climate change because again the climate that was always
changed or would still be in the in the by stage,
and so things like see those the corporates that were
falling over themselves to sign up to those what it's
(14:39):
called science based target initiatives, which is again a trojan
horse for just I guess righteousness. There's been eight hundred
and ninety three companies pull out of that in the
last few months. And that's what we've seen worldwide. Same
thing with the taxonomy nonsense that the New Zealand government
had been caught up in. Same thing with alternative proteins,
soleve grown meat, et cetera. So that's abs be going
(15:00):
out of favor as a consumer thinks, actually I actually
want naturally produced food.
Speaker 2 (15:04):
Okay, Jane, just going back to the urine spreader because
I'm fascinated by this. If they can get this to work,
and it does work, that's a good thing because it
is a major issue greenhouse scarce submissions aside cows peeing
concentrated lots of urine in one place, going into the subsoil.
Speaker 6 (15:23):
Absolutely, Jaman, I'm not minimizing that. I am on again
a guess alarmed that there's people wanting to make a
lot of money out of this rather than actually pulling
back at at the real issue. And again, I mean
going back fifteen probably twenty years now, there was a
product called eco in and that actually slowed the rate
of the soul bacteria converting ammonia into nitrate and nchosoxide,
(15:44):
and that was that had some real merit, But again
the environmentalists didn't like that either. So I think we
need to be very careful that what we're doing is practical,
it's scalable, it's cheap, because we again had this weird
fascination of intensive, expensive interference with our advantage which is
actually a resource advantage for New Zealand as our extensive,
(16:06):
low input pastoral raised system. So we've got to be
very careful we don't turn ourselves into an EU type
of scenario. And I also think that all of these
things also can be a bit of an excuse for
intensifying agriculture, and that is not the way that we
should be going in terms of ge And I guess
all of this again technology that's disguised as something that
(16:29):
we need, when actually we need to make sure that
we are promoting everything that we do naturally first and
foremost we've done a pretty poor job of that.
Speaker 2 (16:36):
Jair go on a couple to finish on. I see
we're banning one of Wellington's only sheep firms.
Speaker 6 (16:42):
I see that. So the Belmont Farm Park, so one
thousand heats and it's pretty easy access for urban people
in Wellington. And now there's a siders that due to
the stock emissions of the sheep emissions, And again this
just shows you another example of blatant misunderstanding of biogenic
eggs that they're going to retire eighty percent of that
(17:02):
park despite the increased fire risk, the weaves, the peats,
and the sad fact that people won't have access to
an actual, working, living, breathing farm. So that just seems ridiculous.
Whereas down in Canterbury, I see the chross Church City
Council are now allowing sheep on the Kennedy Kennedy Bush
track on the porthills where the fire obviously started a
(17:23):
few years ago as a trial to see get this
one will the sheep eat the grass?
Speaker 7 (17:27):
Two?
Speaker 6 (17:28):
Will they keep it short and green? And three will
that decrease the fire risk? I mean hopefully they can.
Probably they can share their research findings with doc because
they've got a million hectores of that type of ground
that they need to actually control those things on. So obviously,
you know, again that's actually wins some sense and sensibility.
I wouldn't call it a trial, but that's actually kicked
in compared to the Wellington City Council. So I see
(17:51):
all regional council. I see there's a petition going for
that Belmont Farm Park. So I wish them well because
it's absolute nonsense, Jamie.
Speaker 2 (17:56):
Just to find the shine. Are you getting dry on
your North Otago farm? We know the Hawks Bay is
getting a bit perilously dry this early in the season.
Speaker 6 (18:04):
Yeah, certainly looks very very dry there. I really feeling
for those farmers up there, and we're probably better than usual,
I guess if you had to say that. So we've
had again, that's six weeks of Norwester's. We had that
snow last week and things have actually been either really
hot or really cold. But we're actually we're probably not
too bad in stock are looking really good in there's
some great cracking lambs coming off the hill, Jamie. So
(18:27):
you know, again, hopefully we can hang in there and
this side of December, if we can get this side
of Christmas in a good season, we usually both well
for a decent summer, Jamie.
Speaker 2 (18:37):
Jane Smith, thanks for your time. I'll lets you get
on with your beef and lamb New Zealand field day
on your New Haven farm today.
Speaker 6 (18:44):
Thanks Jammie.
Speaker 2 (18:46):
Good on your Jane twenty eighth after twelve, you're with
the country. Texts coming in, Jamie. I smell a rat.
Gates has brought up huge tracts of land in the
US and now he's talking food secure from Mark. Someone
else saying spot on Jane, and another person is saying
(19:07):
doctor Evil could play Christopher Luxon in a movie. Up next, Michelle,
with the latest and rural news. We will we'll have
a look at sports news for you. Jeordie's gone for
the season. That's bad news for the All Blacks. I
might ask Andrew Murray, I think he's Scottish, you see,
is Scottish the chief financial officer for Fonterra, whether whether
(19:28):
maybe Scotland could win their first game ever against US
and Stefan Vogel out of Rabobanks Sydney office. Before the
end of the hour, we take a break back with
rural news and sports news. Welcome back to the country.
(19:52):
The show's brought to you by Brandton, Jamie McKay, Shorty
Michelle Watt with the latest and rural news. But first,
farmers and growers looking to score a win by getting
ahead of the game this summer. Well, Farmlands has got
your back. Being prepared for a dry summer spell, that's
the one. Now's the time to invest in your water infrastructure,
you know, ensure tanks, troughs and fittings and pipes are
(20:13):
in good nick, preventing nasties like pests, weeds and disease
from eating away summer gains. That's a win too, scoring
a healthier return because your animals were healthy. Healthier should
I say another one? All possible with the right animal
management tools and products. Looking slick for the social season, Well,
that's just looking like a winner, isn't it. Scrub up
(20:35):
with new summer gear from Farmlands that will take you
from the paddock to the pub. The team at your
local Farmland store or your Farmland's technical field specialist, they're thinking,
like you, what do I need to get sorted to
score a win this summer? So that's suit to chat
too to get some runs on the board head and store,
or order through Farmlands Pro, or talk to your rap
(20:56):
about Farmland's summer office.
Speaker 1 (21:00):
Countries, World news with Cod Cadets, New Zealand's leading right
on lawn bower Bread, visit steel for dot co dots
for your local stuckist.
Speaker 2 (21:09):
Oh, let me turn my microphone up away. That's operator
Era Michelle Watson, Rural News. Good afternoon, by the way, afternoon, Jamie,
how did you oh just and breaking news. Did you
enjoy the coffee shout?
Speaker 7 (21:21):
I did enjoy the coffee shout, Thank you very much, Jamie.
Speaker 2 (21:24):
Because I won the offer sweep. I did buy an
eighth to the field, but half yours got home for me,
which was good. I've actually I won eighty dollars and
the account and me tells me I lost five dollars
on the Melbourne Cup, but I think I might be
more popular.
Speaker 7 (21:42):
He resolve winners because you brought us coffees. And yeah,
you brought popularity. So that's all that matters.
Speaker 2 (21:47):
Yeah, exactly, by your way, buy your way to friendship.
There you go. Well, sorry, rural news.
Speaker 7 (21:53):
Okay, So in rural news, new legislation is now in
place to protect New Zealand's most productive farmland from being
converted into exotic forests. The Climate Change Response Amendment Act
came into effect on October thirty first, restricting forest entry
into the emissions trading scheme on high quality soils. Agriculture
and Forestry Minister Tom McLay says the move supports food
(22:13):
production and rural communities were still allowing foresters to invest
with confidence. Exceptions apply for Maori owned land and erosion
prone areas, and transitional exceptions are available for recent forestry investments.
The Ministry for Primary Industries is offering support and guidance
online on that one. And that's ereral news. What have
you got in sport, Jamie?
Speaker 2 (22:32):
Oh, well, let's find.
Speaker 1 (22:33):
Out sports on the country with AFCO invested in your
foaming success.
Speaker 2 (22:39):
So that legislation came into place when they.
Speaker 7 (22:43):
October so a few days ago.
Speaker 2 (22:44):
Yeah, so effectively Friday. So let's just see what effect
it has on the creep of I can't say the
cancerous creep of carbon farming. That's not right. There's plenty
of places to plant trees, just don't plant it on
good arable pastoral land. Okay, Sports News, it's official. Unfortunately
(23:04):
we've talked about this one. Jordy Barrett won't play any
further part on the All Blacks Grand Slam Tour due
to leg injuries suffered in the win over Ireland and Chicago.
Struggling Liverpool have lifted for Football's Champions League down in
fifteen times fifteen time winners Real Madrid one nil at Anfield.
(23:27):
England Test captain Ben Stokes has extended his central contract.
Excuse me, I'm struggling, but it must be that expensive
coffee I bought. England Test captain Ben Stoke has had.
Stokes has extended his Central contract by a year through
to the end of the next Time Home Ashes series
in twenty twenty seven, aligning his deal with that of
(23:50):
his coach Brendan McCallum. An Indian spinner rav Ashwin says
he's gutted to be missing the entire Big League after
knee surgery. Now talking about well not the Indians but
the West Indians. We've got a ODI no sorry, a
T twenty tonight at Edon Park, right, looking forward to
(24:10):
that one. So there's one tonight at Eden Park. One
tomorrow night at Eden Park against the Windys. And then
we moved to Saxton Oval and Nelson for a couple
over the weekend or ninth and tenth of November, and
next week here in Dunedin at the University Oval. How
good will that be? Up next, Andrew Murray will have
a look at the global dairy trade auction overnight. Well,
(24:38):
I guess it was no surprise because the futures market
was picking it. Yet another drop in the global dairy
trade auction overnight. We haven't had a positive one since
August the fifth, three months exactly to the day. Andrew
Murray is the CFO at Fonterra. First question, and it's
the obvious one. Andrew is ten dollars under threat.
Speaker 8 (24:59):
Now, good afternoon, Jenny. Look as you said, you know,
derivative markets have been pacing this in for a little while,
so I don't think we've seen anything that was unexpected
from that standpoint. You know, there's a lot of milk
around at the moment, and we'll see that pleao in
terms of what's being on the prices, we.
Speaker 2 (25:16):
Seem to have found a floor for skim milk powder.
It was unchanged the GDT index overall down two point
four percent. Whole milk powder obviously the most important one
down two point seven percent. Once we get over these
high spring volumes that were going through right at the moment,
(25:37):
will whole milk powder follow skim milk powder and find
a floor?
Speaker 8 (25:42):
Oh look, I think what we'll get to is, you
know that the New Zealand production is up strong at
the moment, lat is the same from December. We are
going to see the New Zealand volumes sort of drop
off and so not a lot of people sitting in
a lot of inventory, and I think that's potentially going
to put a bit of a full under the place levels.
Speaker 2 (26:01):
And the other thing that's mitigating some of these falls
falls obviously is the exchange. Right we've seen a bit
of a fall there. We're sitting at under US fifty
seven since when I had a look earlier this morning.
I know you do have a hedging policy in place.
You may not be cashing in on all of that.
Maybe you're picking up some of that action for next season.
(26:22):
Are you in the hedging department, Andrew, you'd have to
be is the CFO, wouldn't you?
Speaker 8 (26:27):
Yes, I do do a little bit of the hedging. Yeah, Look,
we'll still have we do still have some money hedged
positions for this season, although it's relatively limited. You know,
we have seen that, we have seen that effex move
and obviously that's a benefit and you know we will
certainly see that through some cover into next season as well.
But yeah, there'll definitely be a positive impact from that perspective.
Speaker 2 (26:45):
So as it stands at the moment, going back to
my original question, if you were to have to come
up with a payout right here today and now, would
it be ten dollars?
Speaker 8 (26:54):
Oh, I'm not going to say it exact number. We
have a range for a reason, and I think we
have those ranges because of all this stuff that we're
seeing play out. You know, we will certainly get in
a space where if we if we feel like we
need to make a change to the to the forecast,
then then we'll come out and do that as soon
as we feel that we need to.
Speaker 2 (27:09):
The fats weren't where it was at overnight. Butter down
four point three percent, cheese down six point six percent.
Speaker 3 (27:17):
Mm.
Speaker 8 (27:19):
Yeah, I mean, I think what are we seeing in
that space? If I look at butter in particular, you know,
we're still seeing a really healthy premium towards in Europe
and the US, and there's a good strong bidding as well.
But you know, you've got to see that there's plenty
of supplier there in the Europe and the US as well.
One thing I will say is that you know, China
is the biggest global market, certainly an important market for butter,
(27:39):
and so our presence there is obviously helping us maintain
a bit of that premium over what we see in
the US and the Europe prices. And I think if
you look at Cheddar, you know, again we do have
a healthy premium there against what's happening in the US
and in Europe. You know, those prices more globally have
slumped a little bit in recent months, and I think
it was just seeking that play out a little bit here,
(28:01):
probably a little bit less in terms of ex New
Zealand supplying in the coming months as well, So I
think we'll certainly see that now I'll have a bit
of a floor again. Maybe our own price is there too.
Speaker 2 (28:11):
You mentioned the Chinese. I think they made up over
half of the demand on last night's auction.
Speaker 8 (28:17):
Yeah, I mean, I mean it comes back to that
Speci right chain is the biggest import market for you know,
Hall milk, Poder, but I think second biggest for skim,
So we're always going to see that come through. And
obviously that you know there are big importers from New
Zealand's right, it's a flavor profile and et cetera that
they're lake and so I think that's and that's helping
us versus what you're currently seeing maybe in some of
(28:38):
that Europe and US space.
Speaker 2 (28:40):
You were mentioning the high volumes coming out of New
Zealand this spring. Was there obviously the storms, particularly in
the South and to a lesser degree, I guess in Canterbury,
But down on the South there's got to have an
effect on production down there. What are you seeing through
your factory at Edendale for instance.
Speaker 8 (28:58):
Yeah, Look, I mean it's having a little bit of
an impact, but volumes are still pretty strong year on
year to be honest, you know obviously you know, you
know the songs, you know, don't say you know. There's
a bit of an issue there in terms of we
had a little bit of an impact on one of
factory roofs, but relatively small.
Speaker 2 (29:19):
You know.
Speaker 8 (29:19):
The biggest piece there will be obviously being on farm
and access to Poe being the biggest space there. So
we support farmers where we can in that space. But
if I look at it as an all roll picture,
it's still pretty strong in terms of production for New Zealand.
Speaker 2 (29:31):
I'm pleased to hear that. With an accent like yours.
You've got. You've got to be rooting for the Scottish
this weekend, Andrew Murray. They've never beaten the All Blacks.
They've drawn twice twenty five of all I think in
nineteen eighty three. And I'm just going off the top
of my head now, because I am a rugby geek
when it comes to stats. I reckon in nineteen sixty four,
(29:52):
sixty three, sixty four it was not all. I'll check
that one. So what chance the Scots. We've got our
captain and vice captain out, We've got half the Lions
back line in your team.
Speaker 8 (30:03):
Well, I mean I'd probably better making a prediction about
that than it would be about milk prices, So you
never know.
Speaker 3 (30:09):
There's the first thing for everything.
Speaker 8 (30:10):
I think it's what we'd say.
Speaker 2 (30:12):
Well, you were sitting on the fence, not only with
the rugby but also with the ten dollars payout, Andrew.
Speaker 8 (30:18):
Well, you know what can I say? I'll always root
for my home team.
Speaker 2 (30:22):
Good on you, mate, Thank you very much for your time.
Will eagerly await perhaps a turnaround in those GDT auctions
and a couple of weeks time. Thanks for your time,
no problem, cheer Jimmy sixteen away from one. Thanks Andrew.
Your Bush telegraph didn't take long. The definitive knowledge of
(30:43):
all things rugby, Graham Parnal Edgar has confirmed it was
nil all in nineteen sixty four, sixty three, sixty four
Test Wilson winner ay the captain a young Brian Lahore
on that one pine tree means cal Tremaine. What a
great side that was, A young earl curtain as well.
All my faith at all. Blacks Kirky wasn't on that tour, though.
Some of your feedback from Bryce Mackenzie wherever I heard
(31:07):
that name before. That's right, Bryce is the co founder
of ground Throw. He says, isn't it refreshing to hear
such a sensible interview? Go get them Jane Smith. So
in no guessing what Bryce thinks. And here's someone who's
not such a big fan of Jane. The usual self
justifying emoji of a turd from Jane Smith, the pollution
(31:29):
enabler and Ash the text says, so what if col
urine is diluted, the same amount of nitrates from the
urine still end up in the groundwater diluted or not. Look,
I disagree with you there, Ash, And I'm not a scientist,
because what we're trying to do with the peace spreading
machine is spread the load. So instead of an intensive,
(31:51):
big splash of urine in one place where the plants
can't take it all up, if you spread it evenly
right around the whole padic or pasture, the plants will
take up most of it. There you go, And I
left science behind in the fifth form. Who would know?
Who would have guessed that up? Next Stephan Vogel from
Rabobank up to Sydney. Now on the country. There we
(32:20):
find Stephan Vogel Rabobank's GM of RABO Research for Australia
in New Zealand. Stephan, you guys are about to release
your November Agribusiness monthly. I want to start if I can,
on interst rates and exchange rates, particularly interest rates. Our
OCR is currently sitting at two point five there is
(32:41):
talk of another drop late this month to two point
twenty five. Yours in Australia is sitting at three point
six percent. Why is yours so much higher than ours?
Speaker 5 (32:50):
Yeah, that's a very good question. Look in the race
of putting interest rates higher, when every central bank did
that two years ago, we were actually one of the
lead one. We were starting increasing the interest rates much later,
and also on the way down, we started much later.
And the kind of sentiment here has changed quite a bit.
So if we would have talked a month or two ago,
(33:12):
I would say, well, a lot of people in the
market still have several twenty five basis coined cuts in
the forecast for the next six eight months, and those
have more or less evaporated in many of the forecasts
because infilation here in the country is really sticky. So
we have seen a couple of surprises of those numbers
(33:33):
to the upside, and the unemployment numbers, while for a
while looking like they could balance and keep the argument
going that well, maybe the RBA keeps on cutting, all
of that didn't play out. So basically we're at the
point when we look at the latest economic data that
come in. Inflation is sticky, unemployment doesn't justify that we
actually keep on cutting.
Speaker 2 (33:55):
What about here in New Zealand, what chance of us
getting down to two point two five the same because
there was of course talk of us getting to two percent,
but that seems to have dissipated obviously off the back
of higher than expected inflation.
Speaker 5 (34:09):
Exactly, and it's a bit the same in New Zealand.
So we're looking at New Zealand these days, and we
still hold one more cut off twenty five in November.
That is a little questionable, but we will now hold
that forecast. But as you said, there is not a
lot of other cuts expected after that, so that we
might end actually that cutting at two point twenty five.
Speaker 2 (34:31):
So maybe this is as good as it gets. Let's
have a look at the commodity outlooks. I'll start with dairy. Okay, Look,
we've had a global dairy trade auction overnight down again.
Dairy prices are softening and that a lot of that's
due to the supply on the global stage.
Speaker 5 (34:47):
Yeah, that's a little bit the tenure here in the region.
If you look across the board, we see actually really
strong supplies on the world market coming now in and
also if you look at New Zealand, I think volumes
were good, while here in Australia we were actually a
little sluggish. So overall, if you look at it, butter
(35:08):
prices that were really the driving force over the last
let's say two years, we're back down to levels that
we had about six months ago in terms of price,
so they have given quite a bit of downside globally.
And we've also seen that the skim milk and whole
milk powder prices are weakening. So with that global picture
of plenty of supplies and plenty of choices, prices are
(35:32):
getting a bit under pressure and I think it's hard
to imagine that that will change somewhere quickly. We have
gone through a period of tightness in the global market,
but now it seems to be reversing.
Speaker 2 (35:44):
Well, you can't say that about baits still plenty of
demand for that.
Speaker 5 (35:49):
Yes, I think the driver obviously is if you look
at prices locally in New Zealand, they're still very good.
We have seen overall the volumes go down from where
they were last year, and if you think about the
demand on the global picture has been really strong and
that is helped by the US. The US is one
(36:10):
of those big importers these days. They heard, in our view,
is at that point where they start to slightly rebuild,
but it's not going to be a quick one. So
in our view, the good news in that beef market
is there is continued demand, maybe not as strong as
it is now in a year or two from now,
but it's still going to be pretty good in our views.
(36:30):
The problem in that beef market is obviously tariffs, and
New Zealand fases fifteen percent, Australia ten, but Brazil facees
fifty and so in an environment like this, New Zealand
has still been relatively competitive and exported a little more
than last year to the US so far this year
despite the tariffs, Australia shipped actually thirty percent more this
(36:52):
by ten percent tariffs, so that terrifts are not holding
US back as long as they are. There's really low
levels and as ad that demand the market is still good,
which is really really positive for our local prices.
Speaker 2 (37:04):
Let's finish on shape, mate, eleven dollars a kilo at
the moment, albeit that's an off season peak. If you want,
how long can we define gravity? Because varying commentators are
saying varying things. I'm going to be talking to Professor
Keith wood Put on the show tomorrow and he's suggesting
we could see a major correction before Christmas. What do
you think for lamb I'm talking about.
Speaker 5 (37:25):
Yeah, So in the landmarket, I mean for now the
export has been once again a driver here that kept
these prices at these very lofty levels. If we're looking
into the competitive market and that's over here in Australia
are the strong one. We think that a lot of
farmers held back on the lands over the last couple
of weeks get them a little bit higher weights on,
(37:46):
but that they are now getting actually into the period
of selling some more. So the risk is out there
that you're going to face more headwinds from Australian exports
going into that market. So we're fearing that there is
a bit of a correction. If it is a major
one is probably too early to say, but these prices
are pretty lofty as that right now, and we don't
(38:08):
expect them to hold at these really good levels, but
we also don't expect them to fall completely apart.
Speaker 2 (38:14):
Stephan Vogel out of Sydney Rabobanks, GM of RABO Research.
Thanks for your time. You can read all about this
the November Agribusiness Monthly Report on the Rabobank website. I
think it's going to be out tomorrow. Thanks for your time.
Speaker 5 (38:27):
Thank you very much for having me, Jenny, and that.
Speaker 2 (38:33):
Wraps the Country for today. Professor Keith Woodford on the
show tomorrow talking lamb price is going to leave the
final say to Jeff the Texter solution to pollution is dilution.
We'll see you tomorrow, catch.
Speaker 1 (38:49):
You all the latest from the land. It's the Country
Podcast with Jamie mcguy. Thanks to Brent, you're specialist in
John Deere machinery.
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