November 5, 2024 • 6 mins
LIVE out of Washington DC - Jack talks one of the most important days in USA history.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
From the rugby field to the rotary shed. It's the
Country Sport Breakfast with Brian Kelly on gold Sport.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
Well. The world will be watching and waiting as Americans
head to the polls to elect either Donald Trump or
Kamala Harris as the nation's next president. And one man
that is waiting as well as in the nation's capital, Washington,
d C. As the host of Q and A on
TV and Z and Saturday Mornings with Jack Tame. I'm
on Newstalk ZB the man himself, Jack Tame, Morning Jack.
Speaker 1 (00:28):
Hi, Brian, how are you doing? Good to be speaking?
Speaker 2 (00:30):
Oh, very very well. Thank you. More importantly, though, how
are you doing? Oh?
Speaker 1 (00:35):
Look, I'm excited massive day. I'm fortunate and that I
have been covering these for a wee while. This is
my fourth US election in a row, and this one
I think feels more contentious than any of the prior ones,
which is saying something given the US's recent political Histterday
and who knows, you know, who knows who's the next
(00:56):
president's going to be? Who knows what we're going to
be saying in twenty four hours on or so who
if we even get a result today, it's all on
the line.
Speaker 2 (01:03):
What are the last minute polls saying.
Speaker 1 (01:06):
Honestly, it's a toss up. Basically, all of the polls
for the seven swing states that are likely going to
decide the race suggests that the result is that the
polling result of the moment is within the margin of era.
So there's only so much you can read into those things. Now,
that's not to say that once all the votes are
in that one candidate won't have a comfortable margin. It's
just to say because they might win all of those
(01:28):
swing states. And you've got to remember, under the electoral
college system they use here, most of the states have
a winner take all approach to so basically, if you
win a state by five votes, you get all of
the electoral college votes. If you win it by five
million votes, you get exactly the same number. It's not
the popular vote that matters, it's the electoral college. So yeah,
when you look at the polls and try and assess
(01:49):
who's ahead, honestly, it's a coin flip. And it's remarkable
to look at some of the some of the predictions
here from the big polsters who've run literally tens of
thousands of different models from all the polling available, and
they say it's almost exactly fifty fifty.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
So flip a coin, right, what's the feeling like over there?
I mean, you've been bouncing around different states and so on.
What are the people saying?
Speaker 1 (02:12):
Yeah, I mean, like I say, it's contentious. And I
think one of the defining qualities of the US right
now is just how tribal the politics has become. You
have this two party system, but there's just no middle ground,
so people are either totally for Donald Trump or totally
against them. And part of that is the Trump phenomenon.
It sort of feels like any election with Donald Trump
(02:33):
is inescapably an election about Donald Trump. But I don't know,
there's probably something a little bit deeper as well, something
that speaks to the nature of their constitutional system and
the fact that they kind of only have these major
parties contesting every election. You know, We've been going around
over the last couple of weeks, and you know, it's
the one thing I would say that voters have turned
(02:55):
out at Kamala Harrison's rallies and voters to turn out
Donald Trump's rabies have in common is that they're totally
bewildered by the other side and In my experience, it's
almost like they're living in slightly different realities. It's like
their information networks have zero crossover, the things they believe
have zero crossover, And you know, even though they're living
(03:16):
in the same country, it's like they're kind of viewing
it with completely different lenses.
Speaker 2 (03:21):
From what we're reading and what we're seeing. It seems
like Kamala will probably get the majority of the female vote.
Would that be right?
Speaker 1 (03:28):
Yeah, yeah, I think this is actually one of the
defining dynamics of this election. Never before have they had
a gender split it's quite as extreme as this one.
So it's about sixteen or seventeen points, men massively favoring
Donald Trump by sixteen or seventeen points, women massively favoring
Kamala Harris by sixteen or seventeen points. And you know, again,
the electoral college system complicates all of this. But if
(03:49):
you were to say which of those voting groups was
most likely to vote, that is probably one of the
dynamics that savors Karmala Harris. Like I would say that
women are more likely to vote, especially if Donald Trump
is relying on young men to vote. That being said,
he's kind of made a political career out of defying
conventional political wisdom. So don't be surprised if he does
(04:10):
manage to get up. But yeah, I mean, there must
be literally millions of households around the US right now
where couples are sitting there at the dinner table, either
having already voted for different candidates or planning to vote
for different candidates, and I can imagine there'll be some
awkward exchanges once the results start rolling in.
Speaker 2 (04:27):
There appears to be a record turnout, would that be right?
Speaker 1 (04:30):
Yeah, Look, it's certainly that the early voting has suggested
massive interest, and one of the interesting things about Donald
Trump's time in politics is it's coincided with a higher
voter turnout than the elections beforehand. So heading into today,
about eighty million early votes were cast. We don't, well,
we're not going to know until the polls close exactly
how many votes have been cast today for an overall
(04:53):
vote tally, but certainly those early numbers suggest that voter
interest is pretty high and.
Speaker 2 (04:58):
The tensions are pretty high on I know, we've seen
images coming out of Washington, d C. Of security fences
being erected and so on, so our tensions high over
there in the Capitol.
Speaker 1 (05:08):
Yeah, yeah, it's funny. I mean, they have to take precautions, right,
And I remember four years ago I was here and
basically all of downtown Washington, d C. Was boarded up.
It was a few months after the George Floyd death
and the riots that followed in protests that followed, an
unrest that followed around America. So maybe they were taking
more precautions. So compared to four years ago, things are
(05:30):
actually more chilled out in Washington, DC. Certainly fewer businesses
have decided they need to board up. That being said,
they've erected special security perimeters around the White House, around
the Vice president residents. You know, they've got increased security
around the US capital as well. And I suppose given
(05:50):
the events of January sixth, and given just how contentious
this election is, it's hardly surprising they're taking those kind
of precautions.
Speaker 2 (05:57):
Well, I think we'll be waiting a wee while. I
don't think we'll get any resist later on this afternoon.
I think it might take a while to decide.
Speaker 1 (06:03):
What do you think, Yeah, I mean, look, we'll get
some state results, but the problem is that every state
runs their election slightly different to the one next to them,
and like. Some of them can start tallying early votes
before the polls close, some of them don't allow any
talenting before the polls close. Some are hand counting the votes,
some are using machines, So there are kind of different
(06:24):
difference takes to use different standards. But it's pretty likely,
I think, certainly much more likely than not that we'll
be waiting a day or two before we get a
confirmed result. They're being said, we might get a pretty
good steer later tonight, early tomorrow kind of thing. But yeah,
I think be prepared to wait.
Speaker 2 (06:41):
Jack, thank you for your valuable time doing a great
job over there.
Speaker 1 (06:44):
Go well, thanks so much, really appreciate it.
Speaker 2 (06:47):
Take you roun Jack Tame joining us here on the
show host of course, a Q and A and TV
and Z and also Saturday mornings. And you're still zed
From the rugby field to the rotary shed. It's the
Country Sport Breakfast with Brian Kelly on gold Sport.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
Well. The world will be watching and waiting as Americans
head to the polls to elect either Donald Trump or
Kamala Harris as the nation's next president. And one man
that is waiting as well as in the nation's capital, Washington,
d C. As the host of Q and A on
TV and Z and Saturday Mornings with Jack Tame. I'm
on Newstalk ZB the man himself, Jack Tame, Morning Jack.
Speaker 1 (00:28):
Hi, Brian, how are you doing? Good to be speaking?
Speaker 2 (00:30):
Oh, very very well. Thank you. More importantly, though, how
are you doing? Oh?
Speaker 1 (00:35):
Look, I'm excited massive day. I'm fortunate and that I
have been covering these for a wee while. This is
my fourth US election in a row, and this one
I think feels more contentious than any of the prior ones,
which is saying something given the US's recent political Histterday
and who knows, you know, who knows who's the next
(00:56):
president's going to be? Who knows what we're going to
be saying in twenty four hours on or so who
if we even get a result today, it's all on
the line.
Speaker 2 (01:03):
What are the last minute polls saying.
Speaker 1 (01:06):
Honestly, it's a toss up. Basically, all of the polls
for the seven swing states that are likely going to
decide the race suggests that the result is that the
polling result of the moment is within the margin of era.
So there's only so much you can read into those things. Now,
that's not to say that once all the votes are
in that one candidate won't have a comfortable margin. It's
just to say because they might win all of those
(01:28):
swing states. And you've got to remember, under the electoral
college system they use here, most of the states have
a winner take all approach to so basically, if you
win a state by five votes, you get all of
the electoral college votes. If you win it by five
million votes, you get exactly the same number. It's not
the popular vote that matters, it's the electoral college. So yeah,
when you look at the polls and try and assess
(01:49):
who's ahead, honestly, it's a coin flip. And it's remarkable
to look at some of the some of the predictions
here from the big polsters who've run literally tens of
thousands of different models from all the polling available, and
they say it's almost exactly fifty fifty.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
So flip a coin, right, what's the feeling like over there?
I mean, you've been bouncing around different states and so on.
What are the people saying?
Speaker 1 (02:12):
Yeah, I mean, like I say, it's contentious. And I
think one of the defining qualities of the US right
now is just how tribal the politics has become. You
have this two party system, but there's just no middle ground,
so people are either totally for Donald Trump or totally
against them. And part of that is the Trump phenomenon.
It sort of feels like any election with Donald Trump
(02:33):
is inescapably an election about Donald Trump. But I don't know,
there's probably something a little bit deeper as well, something
that speaks to the nature of their constitutional system and
the fact that they kind of only have these major
parties contesting every election. You know, We've been going around
over the last couple of weeks, and you know, it's
the one thing I would say that voters have turned
(02:55):
out at Kamala Harrison's rallies and voters to turn out
Donald Trump's rabies have in common is that they're totally
bewildered by the other side and In my experience, it's
almost like they're living in slightly different realities. It's like
their information networks have zero crossover, the things they believe
have zero crossover, And you know, even though they're living
(03:16):
in the same country, it's like they're kind of viewing
it with completely different lenses.
Speaker 2 (03:21):
From what we're reading and what we're seeing. It seems
like Kamala will probably get the majority of the female vote.
Would that be right?
Speaker 1 (03:28):
Yeah, yeah, I think this is actually one of the
defining dynamics of this election. Never before have they had
a gender split it's quite as extreme as this one.
So it's about sixteen or seventeen points, men massively favoring
Donald Trump by sixteen or seventeen points, women massively favoring
Kamala Harris by sixteen or seventeen points. And you know, again,
the electoral college system complicates all of this. But if
(03:49):
you were to say which of those voting groups was
most likely to vote, that is probably one of the
dynamics that savors Karmala Harris. Like I would say that
women are more likely to vote, especially if Donald Trump
is relying on young men to vote. That being said,
he's kind of made a political career out of defying
conventional political wisdom. So don't be surprised if he does
(04:10):
manage to get up. But yeah, I mean, there must
be literally millions of households around the US right now
where couples are sitting there at the dinner table, either
having already voted for different candidates or planning to vote
for different candidates, and I can imagine there'll be some
awkward exchanges once the results start rolling in.
Speaker 2 (04:27):
There appears to be a record turnout, would that be right?
Speaker 1 (04:30):
Yeah, Look, it's certainly that the early voting has suggested
massive interest, and one of the interesting things about Donald
Trump's time in politics is it's coincided with a higher
voter turnout than the elections beforehand. So heading into today,
about eighty million early votes were cast. We don't, well,
we're not going to know until the polls close exactly
how many votes have been cast today for an overall
(04:53):
vote tally, but certainly those early numbers suggest that voter
interest is pretty high and.
Speaker 2 (04:58):
The tensions are pretty high on I know, we've seen
images coming out of Washington, d C. Of security fences
being erected and so on, so our tensions high over
there in the Capitol.
Speaker 1 (05:08):
Yeah, yeah, it's funny. I mean, they have to take precautions, right,
And I remember four years ago I was here and
basically all of downtown Washington, d C. Was boarded up.
It was a few months after the George Floyd death
and the riots that followed in protests that followed, an
unrest that followed around America. So maybe they were taking
more precautions. So compared to four years ago, things are
(05:30):
actually more chilled out in Washington, DC. Certainly fewer businesses
have decided they need to board up. That being said,
they've erected special security perimeters around the White House, around
the Vice president residents. You know, they've got increased security
around the US capital as well. And I suppose given
(05:50):
the events of January sixth, and given just how contentious
this election is, it's hardly surprising they're taking those kind
of precautions.
Speaker 2 (05:57):
Well, I think we'll be waiting a wee while. I
don't think we'll get any resist later on this afternoon.
I think it might take a while to decide.
Speaker 1 (06:03):
What do you think, Yeah, I mean, look, we'll get
some state results, but the problem is that every state
runs their election slightly different to the one next to them,
and like. Some of them can start tallying early votes
before the polls close, some of them don't allow any
talenting before the polls close. Some are hand counting the votes,
some are using machines, So there are kind of different
(06:24):
difference takes to use different standards. But it's pretty likely,
I think, certainly much more likely than not that we'll
be waiting a day or two before we get a
confirmed result. They're being said, we might get a pretty
good steer later tonight, early tomorrow kind of thing. But yeah,
I think be prepared to wait.
Speaker 2 (06:41):
Jack, thank you for your valuable time doing a great
job over there.
Speaker 1 (06:44):
Go well, thanks so much, really appreciate it.
Speaker 2 (06:47):
Take you roun Jack Tame joining us here on the
show host of course, a Q and A and TV
and Z and also Saturday mornings. And you're still zed
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