July 2, 2024 • 4 mins
The latest GDT results.. an we don't have great news for you this morning.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Sport the latest one of the land and it just
great rock It's the Country Sport Breakfast with Brian Kelly
on Gold Sport, your home of live commentary.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Well overnight, another one of the fortnight League global dairy
trade auctions and this one not a good one at all,
joining US Global Eary Trades inside ste Davison, Morning Stew.
Speaker 1 (00:20):
Good morning, Yeah, no, not great news for New Zealand
this morning. But we were expecting this one.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
Well, I was going to ask you that, I mean
down six point nine percent. That is a big drop.
Speaker 1 (00:32):
Why, Yeah, it was a big drop, led by both
milk fats falling AMF and Hender's milk fat full in
ten point seven percent, followed by butter full and ten
point two percent, So that was one of the key drivers.
And again they're coming off record prices, so that's one
half of the problem. The other half is Homwok patternskimmlk
powder falling four point three and six point one percent
(00:52):
respectively on the index. And again the key driver is
actually this is this is a seasonal move. It's it's
an outsize, outsized move compared to the last six months.
But we did expect this move coming into the option
starting to sell peak milk production and New Zealand, So
not unsurprising, but just never nice to see.
Speaker 2 (01:11):
You said you were expecting it. Did you think it
would be around the six mark?
Speaker 1 (01:16):
Well, I'm going to have to be a little bit
arrogant here, but we were actually picking this big of
a slide, to be honest, We priced this one in
last week and we pensied it in for a pretty
big slide of the milk fats and across the Humok
pattern and Skimmok pattern and the futures market. The Singapore
Exchange futures markets were also matching the expectations, so the
market was racing for the sort of a move. So again,
(01:36):
we expected it. It's just never nice to see it
print in alignment.
Speaker 2 (01:41):
Yeah, absolutely so looking ahead into your crystal ball, will
that be adjusted? Do you think we'll see some pluses
in the near future.
Speaker 1 (01:48):
Well, this is the tough news. Right when we go
into peak seasonal milk production New Zealand, it's very uncommon
for commodity prices to surge ahead while milk production increases too,
so we don't see a lot of positive in the
near term. We actually see prices potentially sliding a little
bit further as we approach sort of peag milk production
in October. So again, you know, we might have a
few corrections going forward, but brace yourself for prices to
(02:11):
slide a little bit further as we move along.
Speaker 2 (02:13):
I was looking in all the products. There isn't a
plus to be seen, is there?
Speaker 1 (02:17):
I think there's a there's a small one on lactose,
but that's not relevant in your own so we ignore
that one, even though it's even though it's green.
Speaker 2 (02:24):
Point six yeah, point six percent for lactose. Yeah, not
a biggie. But the rest, Yeah, I mean where were
the bit is? Where did the bit has come from?
Speaker 1 (02:31):
Yeah? Good question. So, as has been theme over the
last eighteen months, it was not China again. Southeast Asian
buyers turned up and took the bulk of the product.
That took over half of the whole And there's actually
the smallest overall volume from China for a long time.
So they brought about twenty seven point four percent of
the total volume, which is very, very small for that
major region. So again it just speaks to that weakness
(02:54):
in the Chinese demand pocket. And you know the rest
of those buyers were basically just picking up the dregs
and they basically got left with everything that wasn't wanted
by China. So that explains the price to client to
an extent. But again, you know, when buyers can see
a whole little product coming down the down the channel
from peak milk production, they're very unwilling to pay big prices.
Speaker 2 (03:14):
Any hope China will come back into the market sooner
rather than later.
Speaker 1 (03:19):
Or do you want the honest truth or optimistic truth?
Speaker 2 (03:22):
Truth mate? Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 1 (03:25):
So the honest truth is China's still not looking great.
You know, there's a little bit of optimism optimism popping
up here and there, things are looking better, but overall
the Chinese market's still a key bit of concern from
macro perspective, from consumption, from imports, from everything. So we're
still pretty skeptic that they're going to be big players
in the dairy market, especially on GDT in the near term.
(03:46):
But again, long term, let's talk to Eiry. Long term
things are still positive within the relationship between New Zealand
and China, then you know they're not going to not
be number one trading partner for dairy in a long time,
so they might not be here now, but they'll be
there in the future.
Speaker 2 (04:01):
Great, that's all we want to hear. Really, down six
point nine percent overnight to thanks for joining us, mate,
have a good one, well do.
Speaker 1 (04:08):
Thank you.
Sport the latest one of the land and it just
great rock It's the Country Sport Breakfast with Brian Kelly
on Gold Sport, your home of live commentary.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Well overnight, another one of the fortnight League global dairy
trade auctions and this one not a good one at all,
joining US Global Eary Trades inside ste Davison, Morning Stew.
Speaker 1 (00:20):
Good morning, Yeah, no, not great news for New Zealand
this morning. But we were expecting this one.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
Well, I was going to ask you that, I mean
down six point nine percent. That is a big drop.
Speaker 1 (00:32):
Why, Yeah, it was a big drop, led by both
milk fats falling AMF and Hender's milk fat full in
ten point seven percent, followed by butter full and ten
point two percent, So that was one of the key drivers.
And again they're coming off record prices, so that's one
half of the problem. The other half is Homwok patternskimmlk
powder falling four point three and six point one percent
(00:52):
respectively on the index. And again the key driver is
actually this is this is a seasonal move. It's it's
an outsize, outsized move compared to the last six months.
But we did expect this move coming into the option
starting to sell peak milk production and New Zealand, So
not unsurprising, but just never nice to see.
Speaker 2 (01:11):
You said you were expecting it. Did you think it
would be around the six mark?
Speaker 1 (01:16):
Well, I'm going to have to be a little bit
arrogant here, but we were actually picking this big of
a slide, to be honest, We priced this one in
last week and we pensied it in for a pretty
big slide of the milk fats and across the Humok
pattern and Skimmok pattern and the futures market. The Singapore
Exchange futures markets were also matching the expectations, so the
market was racing for the sort of a move. So again,
(01:36):
we expected it. It's just never nice to see it
print in alignment.
Speaker 2 (01:41):
Yeah, absolutely so looking ahead into your crystal ball, will
that be adjusted? Do you think we'll see some pluses
in the near future.
Speaker 1 (01:48):
Well, this is the tough news. Right when we go
into peak seasonal milk production New Zealand, it's very uncommon
for commodity prices to surge ahead while milk production increases too,
so we don't see a lot of positive in the
near term. We actually see prices potentially sliding a little
bit further as we approach sort of peag milk production
in October. So again, you know, we might have a
few corrections going forward, but brace yourself for prices to
(02:11):
slide a little bit further as we move along.
Speaker 2 (02:13):
I was looking in all the products. There isn't a
plus to be seen, is there?
Speaker 1 (02:17):
I think there's a there's a small one on lactose,
but that's not relevant in your own so we ignore
that one, even though it's even though it's green.
Speaker 2 (02:24):
Point six yeah, point six percent for lactose. Yeah, not
a biggie. But the rest, Yeah, I mean where were
the bit is? Where did the bit has come from?
Speaker 1 (02:31):
Yeah? Good question. So, as has been theme over the
last eighteen months, it was not China again. Southeast Asian
buyers turned up and took the bulk of the product.
That took over half of the whole And there's actually
the smallest overall volume from China for a long time.
So they brought about twenty seven point four percent of
the total volume, which is very, very small for that
major region. So again it just speaks to that weakness
(02:54):
in the Chinese demand pocket. And you know the rest
of those buyers were basically just picking up the dregs
and they basically got left with everything that wasn't wanted
by China. So that explains the price to client to
an extent. But again, you know, when buyers can see
a whole little product coming down the down the channel
from peak milk production, they're very unwilling to pay big prices.
Speaker 2 (03:14):
Any hope China will come back into the market sooner
rather than later.
Speaker 1 (03:19):
Or do you want the honest truth or optimistic truth?
Speaker 2 (03:22):
Truth mate? Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 1 (03:25):
So the honest truth is China's still not looking great.
You know, there's a little bit of optimism optimism popping
up here and there, things are looking better, but overall
the Chinese market's still a key bit of concern from
macro perspective, from consumption, from imports, from everything. So we're
still pretty skeptic that they're going to be big players
in the dairy market, especially on GDT in the near term.
(03:46):
But again, long term, let's talk to Eiry. Long term
things are still positive within the relationship between New Zealand
and China, then you know they're not going to not
be number one trading partner for dairy in a long time,
so they might not be here now, but they'll be
there in the future.
Speaker 2 (04:01):
Great, that's all we want to hear. Really, down six
point nine percent overnight to thanks for joining us, mate,
have a good one, well do.
Speaker 1 (04:08):
Thank you.
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