October 15, 2024 • 3 mins
The latest GDT results.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
As you reach for the milk to pour it into
your tea or coffee. This morning, it is time to
talk dairy trade auctions. Joining US senior manager Global Markets
Insight out of high Ground Dairy Stew Davidson.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
Morning Stew, good morning, how are we very well?
Speaker 1 (00:14):
Thank you? So the story this morning, dairy prices they've
dropped ever so slightly in the overnight dairy trade auction.
Let's tear it apart. What happened?
Speaker 2 (00:23):
Yeah, let's let's take it from the top. That point
three down on the on the index is probably a
pretty good thing considering you're, like normally in October, we're
selling the most commodities on the on the auction platform
for the year. So flat prices at the largest offer
volume is a good thing. You know, key market for
US humlk powder basically printed flat, so that's pretty promising
in the scheme of things, and everything else is pretty minor.
(00:46):
You know, the cheese was up, milk fat's flat, skim
milk powder down slightly, and you know the European products
mozzarella and lactose down significantly, so bad for them, good
for us. So all in all, a pretty flat auction.
Speaker 1 (00:59):
Were you expecting this kind of result.
Speaker 2 (01:02):
I do love this question. We actually were picking this one,
and there's a few people in New Zealand that can
can reflect that one back to me. I picked it
pretty well actually, so which is good. The problem is
the futures market hadn't picked such a weak event. The
futures market, we're proceeding a little bit more upside for
homicpowder and skim and got the little bit wrong. So
a little bit of a recalibration from the futures market
(01:24):
and the weak ahead.
Speaker 1 (01:25):
Is there any one reason or any reason why it's
sort of I guess you could say it's a flat
flat result.
Speaker 2 (01:30):
Any reason, well, not too much, you know at the moment,
So homic powder price is holding ground at an unusual
point is pretty good. That's probably more confusing than it
is no one at the moment. So usually we'd expect,
with him and a milk coming out of New Zealand
at the moment, that homic powder prices would be more negative.
But to see flat prices and Chinese buyers taking over
(01:52):
half of the total action for homp powder is pretty promising,
but again just adds to the confusion of you know
where the market or why the market is where it is.
But you know, the milk fat side of things, with
those prices both holding ground is unsurprising considering where the
milk fat market is. So it's a mix of unknown
and knowings. But at this point in time, we're just
happy to see things staying pretty stable.
Speaker 1 (02:13):
Yeah, I'm sure they are. Are the Chinese you mentioned
the Chinese are coming back? Are they coming back into
it now?
Speaker 2 (02:19):
Yeah, they've been pretty steady in the last sort of
six actions, taking about half of the total auctions sold
and sort of for their key commodities, so humk, pattern butter,
they've been there or thereabouts to that half level, and
it's really sort of promising to see when you're looking
at the bidding data behind the auction. They haven't been
the strongest buyers, so they're not chasing prices into extraordinary heights.
(02:40):
But the fact that they're printing these prices there or
thereabouts from the previous auction and keeping us in a
nice tight range, you know, it can't be scoffed at.
It's a pretty handy thing considering where we could.
Speaker 1 (02:50):
Be nice one stir right, Well, we'll talk again in
a fortnight. For now, it'll be interesting to see what happens. Then,
what are you picking in two weeks from now?
Speaker 2 (02:58):
Ooh jeez, put me on the spot where if I'm
going to be frank, you know, we're we're waiting for
things to sort of tail off a little bit, a
bit of a correction. Milk fats are unlikely to move
like we're seeing things pretty locked in on that front.
But we're keeping a close light on that home padder
prices we go forward. We're at pretty high prices considering
(03:19):
we have come from. You know, we're waiting for that
to ease a little bit. But to be honest, the
longer we stay above that through two hundred mark, the
more likely that under the milk price is to print
where its forecast.
Speaker 1 (03:30):
Still always good to catch up, mate, Thank you so
much for talking a couple of weeks.
Speaker 2 (03:34):
No worries, looking forward to
As you reach for the milk to pour it into
your tea or coffee. This morning, it is time to
talk dairy trade auctions. Joining US senior manager Global Markets
Insight out of high Ground Dairy Stew Davidson.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
Morning Stew, good morning, how are we very well?
Speaker 1 (00:14):
Thank you? So the story this morning, dairy prices they've
dropped ever so slightly in the overnight dairy trade auction.
Let's tear it apart. What happened?
Speaker 2 (00:23):
Yeah, let's let's take it from the top. That point
three down on the on the index is probably a
pretty good thing considering you're, like normally in October, we're
selling the most commodities on the on the auction platform
for the year. So flat prices at the largest offer
volume is a good thing. You know, key market for
US humlk powder basically printed flat, so that's pretty promising
in the scheme of things, and everything else is pretty minor.
(00:46):
You know, the cheese was up, milk fat's flat, skim
milk powder down slightly, and you know the European products
mozzarella and lactose down significantly, so bad for them, good
for us. So all in all, a pretty flat auction.
Speaker 1 (00:59):
Were you expecting this kind of result.
Speaker 2 (01:02):
I do love this question. We actually were picking this one,
and there's a few people in New Zealand that can
can reflect that one back to me. I picked it
pretty well actually, so which is good. The problem is
the futures market hadn't picked such a weak event. The
futures market, we're proceeding a little bit more upside for
homicpowder and skim and got the little bit wrong. So
a little bit of a recalibration from the futures market
(01:24):
and the weak ahead.
Speaker 1 (01:25):
Is there any one reason or any reason why it's
sort of I guess you could say it's a flat
flat result.
Speaker 2 (01:30):
Any reason, well, not too much, you know at the moment,
So homic powder price is holding ground at an unusual
point is pretty good. That's probably more confusing than it
is no one at the moment. So usually we'd expect,
with him and a milk coming out of New Zealand
at the moment, that homic powder prices would be more negative.
But to see flat prices and Chinese buyers taking over
(01:52):
half of the total action for homp powder is pretty promising,
but again just adds to the confusion of you know
where the market or why the market is where it is.
But you know, the milk fat side of things, with
those prices both holding ground is unsurprising considering where the
milk fat market is. So it's a mix of unknown
and knowings. But at this point in time, we're just
happy to see things staying pretty stable.
Speaker 1 (02:13):
Yeah, I'm sure they are. Are the Chinese you mentioned
the Chinese are coming back? Are they coming back into
it now?
Speaker 2 (02:19):
Yeah, they've been pretty steady in the last sort of
six actions, taking about half of the total auctions sold
and sort of for their key commodities, so humk, pattern butter,
they've been there or thereabouts to that half level, and
it's really sort of promising to see when you're looking
at the bidding data behind the auction. They haven't been
the strongest buyers, so they're not chasing prices into extraordinary heights.
(02:40):
But the fact that they're printing these prices there or
thereabouts from the previous auction and keeping us in a
nice tight range, you know, it can't be scoffed at.
It's a pretty handy thing considering where we could.
Speaker 1 (02:50):
Be nice one stir right, Well, we'll talk again in
a fortnight. For now, it'll be interesting to see what happens. Then,
what are you picking in two weeks from now?
Speaker 2 (02:58):
Ooh jeez, put me on the spot where if I'm
going to be frank, you know, we're we're waiting for
things to sort of tail off a little bit, a
bit of a correction. Milk fats are unlikely to move
like we're seeing things pretty locked in on that front.
But we're keeping a close light on that home padder
prices we go forward. We're at pretty high prices considering
(03:19):
we have come from. You know, we're waiting for that
to ease a little bit. But to be honest, the
longer we stay above that through two hundred mark, the
more likely that under the milk price is to print
where its forecast.
Speaker 1 (03:30):
Still always good to catch up, mate, Thank you so
much for talking a couple of weeks.
Speaker 2 (03:34):
No worries, looking forward to
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