October 14, 2025 • 23 mins
Emotional scenes in the Middle East as hostages reunite with their families across Israel.
Busloads of Palestinian prisoners have also arrived to large crowds in Gaza in an exchange brokered by US President Donald Trump.
Meanwhile, Trump and other world leaders have signed a ceasefire deal during a summit in Egypt.
So, could this all bring lasting peace to the region?
Today on The Front Page, University of Otago international relations professor Robert Patman is with us to discuss whether this actually is, as Trump says, the “historic dawn of a new Middle East”.
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You can read more about this and other stories in the New Zealand Herald, online at nzherald.co.nz, or tune in to news bulletins across the NZME network.
Host: Chelsea Daniels
Editor/Producer: Richard Martin
Producer: Jane Yee
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
Kyota.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a
daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald. Emotional scenes
in the Middle East as hostages reunite with their families
across Israel. Bus loads of Palestinian prisoners have also arrived
(00:26):
to large crowds in Gaza in an exchange broken by
US President Donald Trump.
Speaker 1 (00:33):
Meanwhile, Trump and.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
Other world leaders have signed a ceasefire deal during a
summit in Egypt. So could all of this bring lasting
peace to the region? Today on the front page, University
of Otago International Relations professor Robert Patman is with us
to discuss whether this actually is, as Trump says, the
(00:56):
historic dawn of a new Middle East. So, Robert, incredible
scenes seeing the last twenty living hostages reunite with family members.
Speaker 1 (01:10):
Tell me how has all this come about?
Speaker 3 (01:13):
Well, it's come about in quite short order. Because you
remember that when mister Trump first came to office for
the second time in January this year, he told Natanni
to finish the job. He said that on the campaign trail,
But to his credit, he did oversee a cease fire
in January of this year and put pressure on Neatni
(01:36):
to accept it. But mister Netni who exited from the
second phase of the ceasefire in March of this year
without consequence, and that upset of many people looking in
or looking from abut file. Mister nen who had a
choice by the second phase of the ceasefire that was
started in January, he could accept all the remaining hostages
(02:01):
and bringing it permanent into the war. He chose not
to have the hostages at that stage and continue the war.
But since then a lot has happened, and the real catalyst,
I think was Israel's attack on Kata in Doha in
I think it was around about early September round about
that period, and both Saudi Arabia and Katar and a
(02:23):
number of other Arab countries Egypt, which are all important
to the administration, I think basically read the right actor
Trump and said this has got to stop because Kata
had been involved in mediation efforts at the request of
Israel and the United States, and they were absolutely outraged
by the fact that Israel without warning killed five Hamas
(02:47):
officials in Doha and also a Qatari security official. And
I think mister Trump was suddenly presented with tough choices
he could continue to give mister Yahoo a blank check,
or he could listen to countries like Katar, where America
(03:09):
has its largest military base in the Middle East, and
he decided, I think, to try to bring about a
peace settlement in light of that incident. So I do
think the crucial catalyst for this was the Israeli attack
on a close ally of the United States cut Art,
and I think that I think they made it quite clear.
(03:33):
Saudi Arabia and Katar said to mister Trump, you can't
have your cake and eat it. You can't go on
supporting Netinaho while he attacks us. So you're going to
have to start exerting some leadership here. And the Americans
have always had leverage in this situation.
Speaker 2 (03:49):
Well, Trump has said that the long and painful nightmare
is finally over, is it.
Speaker 3 (03:58):
No? No, this is a well come step forward. Let's
be quite clear, this situation didn't occur overnight. It's been
two years in the making. Following the dreadful Hamas a
terrorist attack on Israel, we then had mister Nilhu's campaign
of mighty vengeance. Something like more than sixty seven thousand
Palestinians have died, an intensive bombardment of gals that eighty
(04:22):
percent of the Palestinians killed have been civilians, including around
twenty thousand children. So there's been enormous and unimaginable suffering.
So to declare it over maybe premature. What we can
see is that all sides have signed up to the
first phase of the agreement, and the first phase involves
(04:44):
all living Israeli hostages being released. That's happened. In return,
Israel has released about two thousand Palestinian prisoners, including four
hundred children. A key part of the first phase is
the unrestricted distribution of humanitarian aid. In Gaza, five hundred
(05:06):
thousand Palestinians, according to the UN, are currently facing starvation.
So the ceasefire could not come quick enough and it's welcome. Also,
it's welcome the hostages have been released, and it's welcome
that long last, we hope unrestricted distribution of food aid
(05:27):
will occur.
Speaker 1 (05:28):
How can we ensure that that actually happens.
Speaker 3 (05:33):
Well, I think, first of all, mister Trump has put
his name to it happening, so he's now got a
stake having extended the brand, the Trump brand, if you
want to put it that way, to peace, and I
think many Arab countries which want a two state solution,
as does much of the community, including the international community,
including our country, believe that mister Trump is the person
(05:56):
to exercise leverage with mister Nian Yahoo. But it's going
to be The reason I expressed caution at the outset
Chelsea in response to your question, is that the easy
part has been done, returning hostages, bringing a cease fire,
telling the military to stop bombarding Gaza, and hopefully allowing
(06:19):
trucks which have been waiting in the border laden with
food to go in. The more difficult part is now
the future of Gaza. Under the agreement, Israel has to
carry out a phased withdrawal in return for Hamas disarming.
But here comes a particular problem. Hamas may be reluctant
(06:43):
to disarm because it's given up its only form of
leaver ridge, which is the hostages. Also, mister netn Yahoo
has given no indication he will accept a Palestinian state.
That's a problem because, and it's a huge omission. In
the twenty point plan, there is no commit no explicit
commitment to the Palestinian right of political self determination. Are
(07:07):
right by the way for all peoples under the UN
Charter and this, you can see a potential stumbling block
occurring here. Now, I think countries like kata Egypt and
Saudi Arabia have no illusions about the difficulty ahead, but
I think they believe it's it's a calculated risk worth
(07:29):
taking because if mister Trump on board, if mister netna
Who starts digging in and refusing to withdraw his forces,
then I think they calculate mister Trump will feel sufficiently
invested to start leaning on Netta Yahu.
Speaker 1 (07:45):
But it is Trump.
Speaker 2 (07:46):
The only reason why netnya who will do that?
Speaker 1 (07:50):
Is that what we're counting on here.
Speaker 3 (07:52):
Oh yeah, I mean, you know, let's be quite clear,
it's welcome that mister Trump has taken this step. Both
the bidenmenstration and the Trump administration bear enormous responsibility for
the fact that ninety two percent of all residential buildings
have been destroyed in Gaza and about ninety percent of
(08:13):
Palestines have been displaced. Without American power backing Israel, none
of this could happen. Four fifths of the munitions used
in Gaza have been provided by the United States, So
it's slightly ironic when mister Trump presents America as being
you know the peacemaker this situation, both Israel and America bear,
(08:36):
as well as Hamas, considerable responsibility for the carnage that's occurred.
It's welcome, though, that mister Trump has decided that trajectory
can't continue. And I think another big sticking point in
the second phase of this agreement, as well as whether
mister Nick who can be persuaded to accept a Palestinian
(08:56):
state without Hamas's involvement, Another sticking point will be the
huge task of rebuilding Gaza. Now. Mister Trump said in
his speech in Shake in Egypt Charma l Shake, he
said that a number of wealthy Arab countries will be
(09:19):
happy to support the rebuilding of Gaza. Well, I'm not
sure Israel. How does Israel feel about that? Because they're responsible,
the IDEF is responsible for leveling Gaza, will they be
comfortable about many of their neighbors rebuilding Gaza? That raises
(09:43):
the question, shouldn't Israel? Shouldn't there be some accountability for
what Israel has done? And just imagine how angry many
Palestinians are once they get over this terrible ideal of
not having enough food and dodging in the bullets and bombs.
Once their life becomes the new normal, then most of
them haven't got a home to return too. So you've
got a lot of potential sources of tension ahead. But yeah,
(10:09):
I mean it's it's I think a lot will depend
whether this piece can be sustained on whether mister Trump's
attention can be sustained on the problem. I think one
or two actors have signed up to this on the
assumption either that the President's attention can be sustained because
(10:29):
he's put his name to it, or that it can't
be sustained. And I think this is the assumption mister
Nettignan who is adhering too, and he can quietly ignore
the president.
Speaker 4 (10:45):
With the historic agreement we've just signed, those prayers of
millions have finally been answered, as you know, the hostages
have been returned, and further work goes on having to
do with the sadly to save buddies. Together, we've achieved
what everybody said was impossible. At long last, we have
(11:07):
peace in the Middle East. And it's a very simple
expression piece in the Middle East, and we've heard it
for many years, but nobody thought it could ever get there,
And now we're there.
Speaker 2 (11:19):
Wow, Trump's got the full attention because he's after a
Nobel Peace Prize next time round, isn't he?
Speaker 1 (11:25):
So there is.
Speaker 3 (11:25):
Something round for he was going for one this time.
Speaker 1 (11:29):
Yeah, but he's the nominations closed, right, Yeah.
Speaker 3 (11:32):
But this is ironic, isn't it? Because mister Trump has
been restricting the rights of people within the United States,
particularly on university campuses, who have been demanding US ease
firing Gaza, and suddenly he's embraced the idea and he
wants a Nobel Peace Prize for belatedly accepting an idea
that much of the international community. It shouldn't be forgotten,
(11:54):
Chelsea that on the twenty seventh October twenty twenty three,
the majority of countries more than one hundred and forty
what did the immediate cease fire? It was the United
States under the Biden administration, which five times exercised the
veto to prevent the cease fire, and then the Trump
administration exercised the veto to prevent the cease fire. So
(12:17):
you know, we've got to put this in some ports persective.
Just because mister Trump was the ne Elberg Beace Prize.
It's not just based on performative acts. It's also based
on sustained commitment and demonstrated dedication. I'm not sure that's
self evidently the case.
Speaker 2 (12:34):
I saw Trump posing with other world leaders in Egypt
behind that big piece twenty twenty five sign one person
not in attendance though, Benjamin Netanya, who should we read
into that?
Speaker 4 (12:46):
Well?
Speaker 3 (12:46):
I think some of the leaders made it quite clear,
you know, mister nettnia who's under an arrest warrant from
the International Criminal Court. In addition, a number of countries,
Turkey in particular, indicated they would not attend if Nettignao,
who does actually turn up, I think the Americans probably
prevailed or Nettnao who not to turn up, given the
(13:07):
reaction that mister Trump was getting from countries that he
wants to have constructive relations with, such as Turkey, which
you know, mister Trump went out of his way to
praise Turkey, mister Odowan at the summit in Egypt. The
crucial thing here is, however, we're not going to get
a stable or reliable peace in the Middle East until
(13:30):
Israel's desire for security is matched by a recognition by
an Israeli leader. The Palestinians need a peaceful path towards
political self determination. The Hamas issue is a side show. Basically,
one of the reasons Hamas Scott leverage is because Israel,
according to the International Court of Justice, illegally occupies three
(13:53):
Palestinian territories, East Jerusalem or the West Bank and Gaza.
So until that picture changes, until Israel recognizes that their
long term security cannot be achieved by military means, a
position our Foreign minister has always maintained to be the case,
and I agree with him that there's no military solution.
(14:16):
You can't bomb your wage of security. Until the post
unies are given the option of ignoring Hamas and forming
their own state, then this situation is likely to flare
up again. In other words, if mister Netnia, who thinks
he can simply have fabulous relations with always Arab neighbors
backed by the United States, and basically take over the
(14:39):
West Bank and virtually control Gaza, then I think this
thing will quickly fall apart.
Speaker 2 (14:46):
What is the key ingredient that needs to happen for
it not to fall apart like we've seen it fall
apart before.
Speaker 3 (14:55):
Well, As I said, at the risk of repetition, I
think there needs to be a recognition in televisi in
Israel that the Palestinians. They came close to it in
the Oslo process in the early nineties of recognizing you
cannot simply exclude another people from achieving statehood, and the
(15:16):
State of Israel was created in nineteen forty eight. That
resulted in the displacement of a lot of Palestinians. No
one suggesting in their right mind that we can go
back to that and all the Israelis leave. I think
what we could hope for, however, is two states living
side by side, and a Palestinian state being based on
(15:39):
the territories of the West Bank, which are currently occupied
Gaza and East Jerusalem. And that's how the Palestinians see it.
So they're prepared to recognize and accept Israel, but they
do want those territories to be liberated, as they see it.
Speaker 2 (15:58):
And does all this hinge on the fact that every
member of Hamas put down their weapons and say enough
is enough.
Speaker 3 (16:08):
Yeah, but you know this, be quite clear about this.
Hamas is a terrorist organization, but it's also a resistance group.
That is to say, Hamas only came into being because,
first of all, the Israelis did not take the Palestinian
authority seriously and sidelined it in the West Bank. And
Hamas presents itself as a militant resistance group to Israeli occupation,
(16:32):
so it's a child or an offshoot of occupation. If
you want to defang or undermine Hamas, you need to
give Palestinians a peaceful path to self determination. It was
John F. Kennedy who said shortly before he was killed,
if the path to peaceful self determination for people is blocked,
(16:55):
then extremism and terrorism is surely follow and unfortunately least
is very very much confirmed. I think the wisdom of
those words. It's not going to be an easy path.
But there are a number of people in Israel I
would say that, a distinct minority who believe that there
(17:16):
has to be a mutual understanding between the Palestins and
the Israelis along the lines we've discussed.
Speaker 2 (17:23):
So what are the next steps of this ceasefire plan.
Speaker 3 (17:26):
Well, the next steps we understand is for there to
be the appointment of non political, technocratic Palestinians to run Gaza,
at least the part of it where Israel doesn't control,
and that governance body will be overseen by what mister
(17:47):
Trump called a Board of Peace headed by himself and
including people like Tony Blair, who's got enormous baggage in
the Middle East area.
Speaker 1 (17:57):
I mean, mister Blair get along with them the first
time round?
Speaker 2 (18:00):
Did he well?
Speaker 3 (18:02):
No, mister Blair has been widely criticized because for many
Arabs states, mister Blair's reputation has been tainted by his
involvement in the invasion of it Raq giving him green
light to America going ahead. But also he's had other
involvements with in the quartet as it was Corn and
(18:25):
it's quite a controversial move. I mean. The crucial thing,
I think from the point of view of Arab states
will be some recognition the Palestinians have a part to
play in determining their own destiny, because at the moment,
what is conspicuous is absent from the Board of Peace
(18:45):
or Palestinian representatives.
Speaker 5 (18:53):
Now, these are first steps, and anybody that's ever had
any regard to the history of this area will know
to be cautious. However, you've got our biggest cross People
in different countries are putting a lot of work into this,
and it is possible, just hopefully that peace will be
breaking out and it'll be permanent.
Speaker 2 (19:17):
How do we know that this isn't going to fall over?
Speaker 3 (19:22):
We don't. But unless you know, life is in politics
is often a choice between the disagreeable or the intolerable,
and the situation we have just witnessed the last two
years for most of us was intolerable. So what's happening
now maybe not be perfectly agreeable, but at least it
(19:42):
represents a possibility of movement. So what I found slightly
encouraging is that many of the Arabs countries, like Egypt,
which borders Gaza Saudi Arabia Both Saudi Arabian Egypt are
close alli of the United States, as is Katar. They
(20:04):
seem determined now, and it's belated. I wonder where they
were for the first two years of this crisis, because
they remained distinctly limp and weak and not demanding justice
for the Palestinians. But they now have seem to it
after the attack by Israel and Katar reached a new
resolution that there must be a two states solution and
(20:27):
if there isn't, their own security is possibly threatened. So
and now this presents mister Trump with I think more constraints.
American decision makers have traditionally been pro Israeli, and they've
usually been very supportive of israel I. Think what may
(20:50):
be happening from here on in We don't know, but
at least the expectation is amongst leaders from Turkey, is Indonesia, Egypt,
Saudi Arabia, is that mister Trump's going to be more
even handed from now on and begin to take into
account the aspirations of the Palestinians as well as the Israelis.
(21:16):
We don't know whether that hope will be realized or
whether it will not be realized, but it's certainly bringing
a cease fire to a situation of unimaginable suffering. I mean,
quite frankly, it's been an international disgrace Chelsea. And it's
not just the Israelis and the Americans bearing responsibility for it,
(21:39):
as well as Amas. You have to think more deeply
and say, where was the UN Security Council. You know,
this organization has the responsibility to uphold global peace and security.
It was found wanting when the Russians invaded Ukraine. It's
been found wanting in the situation we've just wanted the
(22:02):
last year. It was failed to present itself as a
barrier to war and peace. Why because five members of
the Security Council can exercise the veto to perpetuate conflicts
about gaza. So one thing I'd like to see is
steps taken to ensure there can be no more gazas.
What does that mean. It means reform with U N
Security Council. We have to constrain the veto powers of
(22:26):
five countries. In the twenty first century, We're in a
ridiculous situation where five countries determine matters of war and
peace for the whole planet. So while they've got that
nice little perk of a veto, the rest of the
world is paying the price for that perk, and I'm
not sure the rest of the world wants to put
up with it for too long.
Speaker 1 (22:46):
Thanks for joining us, Robert.
Speaker 3 (22:47):
Thank you.
Speaker 2 (22:51):
That's it for this episode of The Front Page. You
can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage
at enziherld dot co dot nz.
Speaker 1 (23:01):
The Front Page is produced by Jane Yee and Richard Martin,
who is also our editor. I'm Chelsea Daniels.
Speaker 2 (23:09):
Subscribe to The Front Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you
get your podcasts and tune in tomorrow for another look
behind the headlines.
Kyota.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a
daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald. Emotional scenes
in the Middle East as hostages reunite with their families
across Israel. Bus loads of Palestinian prisoners have also arrived
(00:26):
to large crowds in Gaza in an exchange broken by
US President Donald Trump.
Speaker 1 (00:33):
Meanwhile, Trump and.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
Other world leaders have signed a ceasefire deal during a
summit in Egypt. So could all of this bring lasting
peace to the region? Today on the front page, University
of Otago International Relations professor Robert Patman is with us
to discuss whether this actually is, as Trump says, the
(00:56):
historic dawn of a new Middle East. So, Robert, incredible
scenes seeing the last twenty living hostages reunite with family members.
Speaker 1 (01:10):
Tell me how has all this come about?
Speaker 3 (01:13):
Well, it's come about in quite short order. Because you
remember that when mister Trump first came to office for
the second time in January this year, he told Natanni
to finish the job. He said that on the campaign trail,
But to his credit, he did oversee a cease fire
in January of this year and put pressure on Neatni
(01:36):
to accept it. But mister Netni who exited from the
second phase of the ceasefire in March of this year
without consequence, and that upset of many people looking in
or looking from abut file. Mister nen who had a
choice by the second phase of the ceasefire that was
started in January, he could accept all the remaining hostages
(02:01):
and bringing it permanent into the war. He chose not
to have the hostages at that stage and continue the war.
But since then a lot has happened, and the real catalyst,
I think was Israel's attack on Kata in Doha in
I think it was around about early September round about
that period, and both Saudi Arabia and Katar and a
(02:23):
number of other Arab countries Egypt, which are all important
to the administration, I think basically read the right actor
Trump and said this has got to stop because Kata
had been involved in mediation efforts at the request of
Israel and the United States, and they were absolutely outraged
by the fact that Israel without warning killed five Hamas
(02:47):
officials in Doha and also a Qatari security official. And
I think mister Trump was suddenly presented with tough choices
he could continue to give mister Yahoo a blank check,
or he could listen to countries like Katar, where America
(03:09):
has its largest military base in the Middle East, and
he decided, I think, to try to bring about a
peace settlement in light of that incident. So I do
think the crucial catalyst for this was the Israeli attack
on a close ally of the United States cut Art,
and I think that I think they made it quite clear.
(03:33):
Saudi Arabia and Katar said to mister Trump, you can't
have your cake and eat it. You can't go on
supporting Netinaho while he attacks us. So you're going to
have to start exerting some leadership here. And the Americans
have always had leverage in this situation.
Speaker 2 (03:49):
Well, Trump has said that the long and painful nightmare
is finally over, is it.
Speaker 3 (03:58):
No? No, this is a well come step forward. Let's
be quite clear, this situation didn't occur overnight. It's been
two years in the making. Following the dreadful Hamas a
terrorist attack on Israel, we then had mister Nilhu's campaign
of mighty vengeance. Something like more than sixty seven thousand
Palestinians have died, an intensive bombardment of gals that eighty
(04:22):
percent of the Palestinians killed have been civilians, including around
twenty thousand children. So there's been enormous and unimaginable suffering.
So to declare it over maybe premature. What we can
see is that all sides have signed up to the
first phase of the agreement, and the first phase involves
(04:44):
all living Israeli hostages being released. That's happened. In return,
Israel has released about two thousand Palestinian prisoners, including four
hundred children. A key part of the first phase is
the unrestricted distribution of humanitarian aid. In Gaza, five hundred
(05:06):
thousand Palestinians, according to the UN, are currently facing starvation.
So the ceasefire could not come quick enough and it's welcome. Also,
it's welcome the hostages have been released, and it's welcome
that long last, we hope unrestricted distribution of food aid
(05:27):
will occur.
Speaker 1 (05:28):
How can we ensure that that actually happens.
Speaker 3 (05:33):
Well, I think, first of all, mister Trump has put
his name to it happening, so he's now got a
stake having extended the brand, the Trump brand, if you
want to put it that way, to peace, and I
think many Arab countries which want a two state solution,
as does much of the community, including the international community,
including our country, believe that mister Trump is the person
(05:56):
to exercise leverage with mister Nian Yahoo. But it's going
to be The reason I expressed caution at the outset
Chelsea in response to your question, is that the easy
part has been done, returning hostages, bringing a cease fire,
telling the military to stop bombarding Gaza, and hopefully allowing
(06:19):
trucks which have been waiting in the border laden with
food to go in. The more difficult part is now
the future of Gaza. Under the agreement, Israel has to
carry out a phased withdrawal in return for Hamas disarming.
But here comes a particular problem. Hamas may be reluctant
(06:43):
to disarm because it's given up its only form of
leaver ridge, which is the hostages. Also, mister netn Yahoo
has given no indication he will accept a Palestinian state.
That's a problem because, and it's a huge omission. In
the twenty point plan, there is no commit no explicit
commitment to the Palestinian right of political self determination. Are
(07:07):
right by the way for all peoples under the UN
Charter and this, you can see a potential stumbling block
occurring here. Now, I think countries like kata Egypt and
Saudi Arabia have no illusions about the difficulty ahead, but
I think they believe it's it's a calculated risk worth
(07:29):
taking because if mister Trump on board, if mister netna
Who starts digging in and refusing to withdraw his forces,
then I think they calculate mister Trump will feel sufficiently
invested to start leaning on Netta Yahu.
Speaker 1 (07:45):
But it is Trump.
Speaker 2 (07:46):
The only reason why netnya who will do that?
Speaker 1 (07:50):
Is that what we're counting on here.
Speaker 3 (07:52):
Oh yeah, I mean, you know, let's be quite clear,
it's welcome that mister Trump has taken this step. Both
the bidenmenstration and the Trump administration bear enormous responsibility for
the fact that ninety two percent of all residential buildings
have been destroyed in Gaza and about ninety percent of
(08:13):
Palestines have been displaced. Without American power backing Israel, none
of this could happen. Four fifths of the munitions used
in Gaza have been provided by the United States, So
it's slightly ironic when mister Trump presents America as being
you know the peacemaker this situation, both Israel and America bear,
(08:36):
as well as Hamas, considerable responsibility for the carnage that's occurred.
It's welcome, though, that mister Trump has decided that trajectory
can't continue. And I think another big sticking point in
the second phase of this agreement, as well as whether
mister Nick who can be persuaded to accept a Palestinian
(08:56):
state without Hamas's involvement, Another sticking point will be the
huge task of rebuilding Gaza. Now. Mister Trump said in
his speech in Shake in Egypt Charma l Shake, he
said that a number of wealthy Arab countries will be
(09:19):
happy to support the rebuilding of Gaza. Well, I'm not
sure Israel. How does Israel feel about that? Because they're responsible,
the IDEF is responsible for leveling Gaza, will they be
comfortable about many of their neighbors rebuilding Gaza? That raises
(09:43):
the question, shouldn't Israel? Shouldn't there be some accountability for
what Israel has done? And just imagine how angry many
Palestinians are once they get over this terrible ideal of
not having enough food and dodging in the bullets and bombs.
Once their life becomes the new normal, then most of
them haven't got a home to return too. So you've
got a lot of potential sources of tension ahead. But yeah,
(10:09):
I mean it's it's I think a lot will depend
whether this piece can be sustained on whether mister Trump's
attention can be sustained on the problem. I think one
or two actors have signed up to this on the
assumption either that the President's attention can be sustained because
(10:29):
he's put his name to it, or that it can't
be sustained. And I think this is the assumption mister
Nettignan who is adhering too, and he can quietly ignore
the president.
Speaker 4 (10:45):
With the historic agreement we've just signed, those prayers of
millions have finally been answered, as you know, the hostages
have been returned, and further work goes on having to
do with the sadly to save buddies. Together, we've achieved
what everybody said was impossible. At long last, we have
(11:07):
peace in the Middle East. And it's a very simple
expression piece in the Middle East, and we've heard it
for many years, but nobody thought it could ever get there,
And now we're there.
Speaker 2 (11:19):
Wow, Trump's got the full attention because he's after a
Nobel Peace Prize next time round, isn't he?
Speaker 1 (11:25):
So there is.
Speaker 3 (11:25):
Something round for he was going for one this time.
Speaker 1 (11:29):
Yeah, but he's the nominations closed, right, Yeah.
Speaker 3 (11:32):
But this is ironic, isn't it? Because mister Trump has
been restricting the rights of people within the United States,
particularly on university campuses, who have been demanding US ease
firing Gaza, and suddenly he's embraced the idea and he
wants a Nobel Peace Prize for belatedly accepting an idea
that much of the international community. It shouldn't be forgotten,
(11:54):
Chelsea that on the twenty seventh October twenty twenty three,
the majority of countries more than one hundred and forty
what did the immediate cease fire? It was the United
States under the Biden administration, which five times exercised the
veto to prevent the cease fire, and then the Trump
administration exercised the veto to prevent the cease fire. So
(12:17):
you know, we've got to put this in some ports persective.
Just because mister Trump was the ne Elberg Beace Prize.
It's not just based on performative acts. It's also based
on sustained commitment and demonstrated dedication. I'm not sure that's
self evidently the case.
Speaker 2 (12:34):
I saw Trump posing with other world leaders in Egypt
behind that big piece twenty twenty five sign one person
not in attendance though, Benjamin Netanya, who should we read
into that?
Speaker 4 (12:46):
Well?
Speaker 3 (12:46):
I think some of the leaders made it quite clear,
you know, mister nettnia who's under an arrest warrant from
the International Criminal Court. In addition, a number of countries,
Turkey in particular, indicated they would not attend if Nettignao,
who does actually turn up, I think the Americans probably
prevailed or Nettnao who not to turn up, given the
(13:07):
reaction that mister Trump was getting from countries that he
wants to have constructive relations with, such as Turkey, which
you know, mister Trump went out of his way to
praise Turkey, mister Odowan at the summit in Egypt. The
crucial thing here is, however, we're not going to get
a stable or reliable peace in the Middle East until
(13:30):
Israel's desire for security is matched by a recognition by
an Israeli leader. The Palestinians need a peaceful path towards
political self determination. The Hamas issue is a side show. Basically,
one of the reasons Hamas Scott leverage is because Israel,
according to the International Court of Justice, illegally occupies three
(13:53):
Palestinian territories, East Jerusalem or the West Bank and Gaza.
So until that picture changes, until Israel recognizes that their
long term security cannot be achieved by military means, a
position our Foreign minister has always maintained to be the case,
and I agree with him that there's no military solution.
(14:16):
You can't bomb your wage of security. Until the post
unies are given the option of ignoring Hamas and forming
their own state, then this situation is likely to flare
up again. In other words, if mister Netnia, who thinks
he can simply have fabulous relations with always Arab neighbors
backed by the United States, and basically take over the
(14:39):
West Bank and virtually control Gaza, then I think this
thing will quickly fall apart.
Speaker 2 (14:46):
What is the key ingredient that needs to happen for
it not to fall apart like we've seen it fall
apart before.
Speaker 3 (14:55):
Well, As I said, at the risk of repetition, I
think there needs to be a recognition in televisi in
Israel that the Palestinians. They came close to it in
the Oslo process in the early nineties of recognizing you
cannot simply exclude another people from achieving statehood, and the
(15:16):
State of Israel was created in nineteen forty eight. That
resulted in the displacement of a lot of Palestinians. No
one suggesting in their right mind that we can go
back to that and all the Israelis leave. I think
what we could hope for, however, is two states living
side by side, and a Palestinian state being based on
(15:39):
the territories of the West Bank, which are currently occupied
Gaza and East Jerusalem. And that's how the Palestinians see it.
So they're prepared to recognize and accept Israel, but they
do want those territories to be liberated, as they see it.
Speaker 2 (15:58):
And does all this hinge on the fact that every
member of Hamas put down their weapons and say enough
is enough.
Speaker 3 (16:08):
Yeah, but you know this, be quite clear about this.
Hamas is a terrorist organization, but it's also a resistance group.
That is to say, Hamas only came into being because,
first of all, the Israelis did not take the Palestinian
authority seriously and sidelined it in the West Bank. And
Hamas presents itself as a militant resistance group to Israeli occupation,
(16:32):
so it's a child or an offshoot of occupation. If
you want to defang or undermine Hamas, you need to
give Palestinians a peaceful path to self determination. It was
John F. Kennedy who said shortly before he was killed,
if the path to peaceful self determination for people is blocked,
(16:55):
then extremism and terrorism is surely follow and unfortunately least
is very very much confirmed. I think the wisdom of
those words. It's not going to be an easy path.
But there are a number of people in Israel I
would say that, a distinct minority who believe that there
(17:16):
has to be a mutual understanding between the Palestins and
the Israelis along the lines we've discussed.
Speaker 2 (17:23):
So what are the next steps of this ceasefire plan.
Speaker 3 (17:26):
Well, the next steps we understand is for there to
be the appointment of non political, technocratic Palestinians to run Gaza,
at least the part of it where Israel doesn't control,
and that governance body will be overseen by what mister
(17:47):
Trump called a Board of Peace headed by himself and
including people like Tony Blair, who's got enormous baggage in
the Middle East area.
Speaker 1 (17:57):
I mean, mister Blair get along with them the first
time round?
Speaker 2 (18:00):
Did he well?
Speaker 3 (18:02):
No, mister Blair has been widely criticized because for many
Arabs states, mister Blair's reputation has been tainted by his
involvement in the invasion of it Raq giving him green
light to America going ahead. But also he's had other
involvements with in the quartet as it was Corn and
(18:25):
it's quite a controversial move. I mean. The crucial thing,
I think from the point of view of Arab states
will be some recognition the Palestinians have a part to
play in determining their own destiny, because at the moment,
what is conspicuous is absent from the Board of Peace
(18:45):
or Palestinian representatives.
Speaker 5 (18:53):
Now, these are first steps, and anybody that's ever had
any regard to the history of this area will know
to be cautious. However, you've got our biggest cross People
in different countries are putting a lot of work into this,
and it is possible, just hopefully that peace will be
breaking out and it'll be permanent.
Speaker 2 (19:17):
How do we know that this isn't going to fall over?
Speaker 3 (19:22):
We don't. But unless you know, life is in politics
is often a choice between the disagreeable or the intolerable,
and the situation we have just witnessed the last two
years for most of us was intolerable. So what's happening
now maybe not be perfectly agreeable, but at least it
(19:42):
represents a possibility of movement. So what I found slightly
encouraging is that many of the Arabs countries, like Egypt,
which borders Gaza Saudi Arabia Both Saudi Arabian Egypt are
close alli of the United States, as is Katar. They
(20:04):
seem determined now, and it's belated. I wonder where they
were for the first two years of this crisis, because
they remained distinctly limp and weak and not demanding justice
for the Palestinians. But they now have seem to it
after the attack by Israel and Katar reached a new
resolution that there must be a two states solution and
(20:27):
if there isn't, their own security is possibly threatened. So
and now this presents mister Trump with I think more constraints.
American decision makers have traditionally been pro Israeli, and they've
usually been very supportive of israel I. Think what may
(20:50):
be happening from here on in We don't know, but
at least the expectation is amongst leaders from Turkey, is Indonesia, Egypt,
Saudi Arabia, is that mister Trump's going to be more
even handed from now on and begin to take into
account the aspirations of the Palestinians as well as the Israelis.
(21:16):
We don't know whether that hope will be realized or
whether it will not be realized, but it's certainly bringing
a cease fire to a situation of unimaginable suffering. I mean,
quite frankly, it's been an international disgrace Chelsea. And it's
not just the Israelis and the Americans bearing responsibility for it,
(21:39):
as well as Amas. You have to think more deeply
and say, where was the UN Security Council. You know,
this organization has the responsibility to uphold global peace and security.
It was found wanting when the Russians invaded Ukraine. It's
been found wanting in the situation we've just wanted the
(22:02):
last year. It was failed to present itself as a
barrier to war and peace. Why because five members of
the Security Council can exercise the veto to perpetuate conflicts
about gaza. So one thing I'd like to see is
steps taken to ensure there can be no more gazas.
What does that mean. It means reform with U N
Security Council. We have to constrain the veto powers of
(22:26):
five countries. In the twenty first century, We're in a
ridiculous situation where five countries determine matters of war and
peace for the whole planet. So while they've got that
nice little perk of a veto, the rest of the
world is paying the price for that perk, and I'm
not sure the rest of the world wants to put
up with it for too long.
Speaker 1 (22:46):
Thanks for joining us, Robert.
Speaker 3 (22:47):
Thank you.
Speaker 2 (22:51):
That's it for this episode of The Front Page. You
can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage
at enziherld dot co dot nz.
Speaker 1 (23:01):
The Front Page is produced by Jane Yee and Richard Martin,
who is also our editor. I'm Chelsea Daniels.
Speaker 2 (23:09):
Subscribe to The Front Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you
get your podcasts and tune in tomorrow for another look
behind the headlines.
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