December 9, 2024 • 19 mins
After decades years of tyrannical rule, and 13 years of civil war, the Assad regime in Syria has fallen.
After rebels rapidly closed in on the capital of Damascus, President Bashar al-Assad and his family fled the country and reportedly are now in Moscow.
It has cleared the way for rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham to take control of the country.
Global powers have welcomed the end of the dictatorship, but concerns are now turning towards keeping Syria a united nation.
Today on The Front Page, University of Otago’s Robert Patman joins us to discuss the significance of this change, and what’s next for the embattled nation.
Follow The Front Page on iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
You can read more about this and other stories in the New Zealand Herald, online at nzherald.co.nz, or tune in to news bulletins across the NZME network.
Host: Chelsea Daniels
Sound Engineer/Producer: Richard Martin
Producer: Ethan Sills
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:04):
Hilda.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a
daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald. After decades
of tyrannical rule and thirteen years of civil war, the
Assad regime in Syria has fallen. After rebels rapidly closed
(00:27):
in on the capital of Damascus. President Bashah al Assad
and his family fled the country and are reportedly now
in Moscow. It's cleared the way for rebel group Hayata
Tarier al Sham to take control of the country. Global
powers have welcomed the end of the dictatorship, but concerns
are now turning towards keeping Syria a united nation. Today
(00:51):
on the Front Page, University of Otago's Robert Patman joins
us to discuss the significance of this change and what's.
Speaker 1 (00:59):
Next the embattled nation. Robert, can you start by giving us,
I guess the briefest overview you can about the Assad regime.
Speaker 3 (01:12):
Well, the Issad regime has been in place for twenty
four years, and for thirteen of the last twenty four
years there's been civil war. In twenty eleven, the Assad
regime came very close to being toppled following what was
called the Arab Spring. There was lots of peaceful protesters
against the Assad dictatorship in Syria in twenty eleven. The
regime responded by shooting dead the peaceful protesters and also
(01:36):
seeking and getting help from Iran and Russia. And in
the intervening period, the Assad regime had steadily got the
upper hand in the civil war and had captured most
of the major cities, although the northern part of Syria
remained under rebel control. And so that took us to
about a week ago when suddenly the rebels, who had
been training in the part of Syria where they were located,
(01:59):
were launched a lightning offensive that caught the Regime of
God and captured Aleppo, the second biggest city in Syria.
And that began a sort of the beginning of knocking
down a row of dominoes as the rebels advanced towards Damascus.
And as they like to say, the rest is history
has said, regime was overthrown over the weekend.
Speaker 1 (02:22):
What do we know about the Hayat Tarid al Shalam
rebels who have taken control of the country, What do
they stand for or believe?
Speaker 3 (02:30):
Well, that's a good question, because there is evidence of
considerable evolution. Originally those rebels had some sort of affiliational
links with our kaider, but they've subsequently distanced themselves from
those extremist sort of elements. And it's been a very
broad coalition, because it should be pointed out that it's
not just IHT, but it's also rebels that had been
(02:53):
formally linked to support from the United States Free Syrian rebels,
for example. And it's this broad coalition that came together
and has cooperated successfully against Hassad's army. One of the
reasons for the success of the rebels not only was
this a carefully planned operation, not only did it maximize
the clout of all the rebels, but all the armed
(03:15):
rebel groups, whereas before they had been competing with each
other while in opposition to Assad. So that was a
qualitive difference. But in addition, the two biggest supporters of
the Asad regime, both Iran and Russia, have been severely
weakened by involvement in conflicts elsewhere. Iran's ability to support
(03:36):
the Asad regime has been weakened by the fact that
its proxy has Bulla has received substantial collateral damage, so
to speak, in its conflict with Israel, and Syria itself
has been targeted for air strikes by Israel. And in addition, Russia,
which has played a key role in ASAD winning Aleppo
(03:59):
in two thousand and six through air strikes amongst other things,
Russia finds itself bogged down and ensnared in a very
debilitating conflict in Ukraine and therefore was not in a
position like twenty sixteen where it could respond rapidly to
support an ally. Like I said, and so in short,
(04:19):
I think it's a combination of careful coordination amongst all
the rebel armed groups and also external factors which meant
that the key backers of Assad's regime were weakened, and
so that presented a window of opportunity for the rebels.
Speaker 1 (04:35):
Well, the rebel leaders are now working with Asad's Prime
minister currently on a managed transition, But do they actually
have a leader that they'll put up instead?
Speaker 3 (04:44):
Yes, I think they do have a leadership. And the
trouble with the current situation Chelsea is it's very fluid.
I was hearing some disquieting reports this morning, for example,
that Israel may have launched two air strikes on Damascus,
and also seen to be moving into an area beyond
the Golan Heats. For our listeners, the Golan Heats was
(05:08):
seized by Israel in nineteen sixty seven during the so
called Six Day War. They've never relinquished that Syrian territory,
and they now seem to be encroaching on further Syrian
territory or as they put it, security reasons. But you know,
this seems very premature, given the fact that Syria hasn't
yet got a chance to establish a post assad government
(05:31):
and already external actors are interfering in its domestic affairs.
This seems extremely troublesome.
Speaker 1 (05:44):
Some residents in Hamma are now celebrating the rebel takeover.
Thank God. We've been waiting for this da for a
long time, and we're all coming out on the street.
This is the happiest d for us. We were afreid
to go out at night. We've been waiting for this.
Speaker 4 (06:00):
Feelings that can't be described. It's been fifty years we've
been suffering injustice and crime and oppression. This is a
historic moment, a priceless moment.
Speaker 1 (06:13):
Well, I've seen videos and reports out of Damascus and
it seems like there's a lot of joy about the
end of the asserted regime. Notably, one of the presidential
palaces has been looted of all of its luxury goods.
Do you think it's fair to say that people are
actually quite happy about this.
Speaker 3 (06:27):
I think across the board, it should never be forgotten
that the Asad regime represented a sect called the Alo Whites,
which were a branch of the Shea community in Syria.
They represented about it's very difficult to put a precise
figure on it, between fifteen and seventeen percent of the population.
They were always too weak, so without external support, it
(06:50):
was always likely that as Sad regime will collapse, and
that's what's happened essentially. And I think there's enormous joy
across the political divide in Syria because it's recognized that
Asad's regime, I mean, the Asad family have been in
power for fifty four years, and one of the first
things the rebels did was release all political prisoners, and
(07:12):
so that's one a lot of goodwill. I think the
current leadership of THEIHD seem to be quite pragmatic, and
I think the international community must give the rebels a chance.
My view is that the Biden administration and the Western
world should welcome what seems to be the moderation of
the rebels and give them a chance to establish a
(07:33):
post a Sad democratic Syria. In other words, Syria's subject
at the moment to sanctions because of the behavior of
the ASAD dictatorship. I think the international community should create
a pathway or indicate a pathway by which those sanctions
could be lifted. And one pathway would be to say
to the new transitional leaders, could you please put in
(07:56):
place arrangements for a free and democratic Syria. If they
do that, they should be supported by the removal sanctions.
It's in our interest liberal democracies throughout the world is
in our interest to see the transition towards a much
more representative government in Syria. And I'm a little bit
concerned that some actors, such as the NEST and Yahoo government,
(08:18):
seem to be prejudging what's going to come out of
the post a Sad situation, and I think that's unfortunate.
Speaker 1 (08:26):
Well, the group is considered a terrorist organization by many nations,
but you've also got many welcoming the end of the
Assad dictatorship, including the UN Secretary General calling it a
historic opportunity to build a stable and peaceful future. Is
there a tricky balance here for foreign powers to work
with the group.
Speaker 3 (08:45):
Well, that's what I've tried to suggest, a balance that
is saying to the rebels that have overthrown a brutal
dictatorship which most Western countries would welcome, saying to them,
we fully support your verbal commitment to move towards democracy,
and we will effectively remove the sanctions regime because at
(09:06):
the moment, Syria has been crippled by sanctions. So if
you want Syria to move towards democracy, then I think
it's important that you create a pathway in which the
post are said, governing authorities can a series of milestones which,
if they meet, the sanctions will be reduced. In other words,
(09:27):
some incentives for the new leaders to move towards democracy,
and I think that's sensible. It seems to me that
this term terrorism is often banded about if you're opposing
a dictation. Remember the Asad family have been in power
since nineteen seventy and to give an example of the
sort of repression that went on in Syria, Basha Assad's
(09:48):
father imprisoned someone for forty three years simply because that
individual won an equestrian competition against one of his sons.
He did nothing else. If you choose to resist a dictatorship,
there's no peaceful path there to resist it, So by
definition you're probably going to have to use force. And
(10:09):
of course Asad depicted all of his opponents as terrorists,
but that's because he gave no opportunity, peaceful opportunity to
oppose his own regime. So we have to be very
careful about using these terms terrors.
Speaker 1 (10:33):
One of the big consequences of the Syrian conflict has,
of course been the millions of refugees it has created.
Twelve million people have been displaced over the last thirteen
years alone, and over five million of them have fled overseas.
We've seen many of them turn up in Europe and
exacerbate the continent's refugee crisis and political backlash. What does
(10:54):
the end of the Assad regime mean for those people
who have fled? Is there going to be a path
back for them? Do you think?
Speaker 3 (11:00):
I hope so, particularly and here the UN and in
particular the members of the UN Security Council, because after all,
the UN is only as strong or as weak as
its five permanent members of the Security Council allow it
to be I hope there will be an international consensus
on trying to establish post the transitional arrangements in Syria,
(11:23):
creating a pathway for representative government. If Syrians are convinced
there will be no return of repression and there is
a method of peacely transferring power, then I think many
of them would like to return. New Zealand, of course,
has absorbed about thirteen hundred Syrian refugees. I think there's
about close to four hundred in Dunedin and alone, and
(11:44):
they've settled and integrated very well into New Zealand society.
But obviously they didn't come here by choice. They came
because they were Their government was their own worst enemy. Unfortunately,
that is a reality for many people in the world
that the the entity that abuses their rights the most
is their governments. And of course, when you live in
(12:05):
a country which is free, like New Zealand and where
human rights are respected, we don't have to worry about
things like that. But that's not the case for many
people in the world. And I suppose to answer your question,
many Syrians would like to return if the international arrangements
are in place and the national arrangements are in place
in Syria for a post Assad democratic country, I think
(12:30):
many people will be playing wait and see for the
moment to see how things pan out. After all, if
you're living in New Zealand and you're originally from Syria,
you probably won't relish going back to Syria until you
can be pretty clear that there won't be a return
to the sort of repression that had led people to
(12:51):
leave the country they were born in in their first place.
But my sense is there is enormous joy amongst Syrians
right across the political board. The Asad family had monopolized
political power for fifty four years and were responsible for
appalling acts against their own citizens. It shouldn't be forgotten
that in twenty thirteen the Syrian regime used chemical weapons
(13:16):
against their own population, and then, of course, the Russians
stepped in to support the Assad regime and use the
most brutal methods in bombing civilian positions in Aleppo in
twenty sixteen. So this is not only just a defeat
for the Assaid regime, it's also a defeat for some
of their authoritarian supporters, like mister Putin's regime. In Moscow
(13:38):
and also the regime in Tehran.
Speaker 5 (13:42):
As rebels entered the capital as Uran war miight or
said present Assad left the country in what could spell
the end of his twenty four year rule and the
downfall of his plans five decade reigned. Well, several conflicting
reports have emerged in last few hours on a side.
So whereabout questions are being raised, where can this you in,
(14:05):
president and go?
Speaker 1 (14:10):
Well, of course, like you said before, Asad's regime is
being propped up by the likes of Russia and Iran,
and it has done so for the last decade. How
does this departure shake up relations in the regime, particularly
when you consider all those tensions between Israel, Iran and Lebanon.
Speaker 3 (14:27):
At the moment, it's very difficult to predict. Because I
was very struck by the fact that mister Biden in
a press conference was claiming credit by supporting Israel, the
enemies of Israel had been weakened, and that in turn
meant that the rebels could succeed in Syria. But what
was missing from that account was that America has actually
(14:48):
by supporting Neshnya, who's relentless bombardment of Gaza and its
invasion of Lebanon has actually contributed to even more instability
in the region. In particular, neither Israel under Mestergnieknyahu or
the United States seem to be dealing with the root
cause of instability in the Middle East, which is the
refusal to acknowledge the right of self political self determination
(15:13):
for the Palestinian people. It's difficult to predict how the
departure of the Assad regime will affect the dynamics of
the Middle East. I very much hope, and I think
this is probably the same for many Syrian citizens. I
would think what emerges from the horror of the Assad
regime is a transition to a democrat, a peaceful, democratic country,
(15:35):
and that would be wonderful. Of course, that wouldn't always
be welcomed by many of Syria's neighbors, Saudi Arabia, which
is an authoritarian regime, and indeed Iran, which is an
authoritarian regime. So it remains to be seen. I think
it's too early to predict. Many of us a week
ago wouldn't have predicted what happened in Syria, so I
(15:57):
think we have to be a little bit humble when
we look into our crystal ball predicting what will happen
after the fall of the Sad regime. I do think
even the Biden administration and more realistically, the Trump administration,
have to stay true to their policy in the Middle
East of a two state solution to the Israeli Palestinian problem,
(16:18):
and that to me is the key to removing some
of the grievances and hatred that have festered this region
for so long.
Speaker 4 (16:31):
It wasn't even daylight in Germany before they took to
the streets waving the distinctive green and black flag of
the opposition. Thousands of Syrians live and work in Germany, Many,
arriving in twenty and fifteen when then German Chancellor Angela
Merkel opened the borders to those fleeing oppression and war.
(16:54):
They gathered on the streets of Bucharest, the Romanian capital,
joy on their faces clear to see us. The news
of President as that's all spread like wildfire.
Speaker 1 (17:09):
Where does this leave Russia now that they've granted assad asylum,
Because I would have thought that Putin would want to
cut ties with him.
Speaker 3 (17:17):
No, I think mister Putin, having put Russian troops into
Syria and having lost Russian troops in Syria. Having spent
a lot of money there, wouldn't want to be seen
to be rubbishing or disowning his own policy. So he's
granted asylum to the Assad regime and Assad's family. I'm
(17:38):
sure this won't be a rent free situation. I'm sure
the riches of the Assad family will be used to
help facilitate that stay. But I think Putin probably decided
on balance it was politically safer for him to at
least be seen to be standing by the Assad family
at a time when the regime which the Russians had
(18:00):
supported was overthrown. The alternative was to disown Assad, but
in doing so, Putin ran the risk of disowning his
own policies for the last decade and a half.
Speaker 1 (18:12):
Do you think Assad could attempt to return to power
or does he know now that his goose is cooked.
Speaker 3 (18:18):
No. I think it's over for the Asad family. Now
we now know that not only is mister Putin a
giving a political asylum to the Asad family, but it
has also withdrawn from that naval base and withdrawn much
of its military capabilities from Syria. So I think there's
(18:39):
no prospect of a comeback by President Assad. He's widely
hated throughout the country, and if Syria does act on
the rhetoric of the rebels and move towards the democracy,
then it will be increasingly difficult for a sad reimpose
and authoritarian regime.
Speaker 1 (18:56):
Thanks for joining us, Robert.
Speaker 3 (18:58):
Thank you.
Speaker 1 (19:01):
That's it for this episode of The Front Page. You
can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage
at enzdherld dot co dot nz. The Front Page is
produced by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin, who is also
a sound engineer. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to The Front
Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts, and
(19:25):
tune in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.
Hilda.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a
daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald. After decades
of tyrannical rule and thirteen years of civil war, the
Assad regime in Syria has fallen. After rebels rapidly closed
(00:27):
in on the capital of Damascus. President Bashah al Assad
and his family fled the country and are reportedly now
in Moscow. It's cleared the way for rebel group Hayata
Tarier al Sham to take control of the country. Global
powers have welcomed the end of the dictatorship, but concerns
are now turning towards keeping Syria a united nation. Today
(00:51):
on the Front Page, University of Otago's Robert Patman joins
us to discuss the significance of this change and what's.
Speaker 1 (00:59):
Next the embattled nation. Robert, can you start by giving us,
I guess the briefest overview you can about the Assad regime.
Speaker 3 (01:12):
Well, the Issad regime has been in place for twenty
four years, and for thirteen of the last twenty four
years there's been civil war. In twenty eleven, the Assad
regime came very close to being toppled following what was
called the Arab Spring. There was lots of peaceful protesters
against the Assad dictatorship in Syria in twenty eleven. The
regime responded by shooting dead the peaceful protesters and also
(01:36):
seeking and getting help from Iran and Russia. And in
the intervening period, the Assad regime had steadily got the
upper hand in the civil war and had captured most
of the major cities, although the northern part of Syria
remained under rebel control. And so that took us to
about a week ago when suddenly the rebels, who had
been training in the part of Syria where they were located,
(01:59):
were launched a lightning offensive that caught the Regime of
God and captured Aleppo, the second biggest city in Syria.
And that began a sort of the beginning of knocking
down a row of dominoes as the rebels advanced towards Damascus.
And as they like to say, the rest is history
has said, regime was overthrown over the weekend.
Speaker 1 (02:22):
What do we know about the Hayat Tarid al Shalam
rebels who have taken control of the country, What do
they stand for or believe?
Speaker 3 (02:30):
Well, that's a good question, because there is evidence of
considerable evolution. Originally those rebels had some sort of affiliational
links with our kaider, but they've subsequently distanced themselves from
those extremist sort of elements. And it's been a very
broad coalition, because it should be pointed out that it's
not just IHT, but it's also rebels that had been
(02:53):
formally linked to support from the United States Free Syrian rebels,
for example. And it's this broad coalition that came together
and has cooperated successfully against Hassad's army. One of the
reasons for the success of the rebels not only was
this a carefully planned operation, not only did it maximize
the clout of all the rebels, but all the armed
(03:15):
rebel groups, whereas before they had been competing with each
other while in opposition to Assad. So that was a
qualitive difference. But in addition, the two biggest supporters of
the Asad regime, both Iran and Russia, have been severely
weakened by involvement in conflicts elsewhere. Iran's ability to support
(03:36):
the Asad regime has been weakened by the fact that
its proxy has Bulla has received substantial collateral damage, so
to speak, in its conflict with Israel, and Syria itself
has been targeted for air strikes by Israel. And in addition, Russia,
which has played a key role in ASAD winning Aleppo
(03:59):
in two thousand and six through air strikes amongst other things,
Russia finds itself bogged down and ensnared in a very
debilitating conflict in Ukraine and therefore was not in a
position like twenty sixteen where it could respond rapidly to
support an ally. Like I said, and so in short,
(04:19):
I think it's a combination of careful coordination amongst all
the rebel armed groups and also external factors which meant
that the key backers of Assad's regime were weakened, and
so that presented a window of opportunity for the rebels.
Speaker 1 (04:35):
Well, the rebel leaders are now working with Asad's Prime
minister currently on a managed transition, But do they actually
have a leader that they'll put up instead?
Speaker 3 (04:44):
Yes, I think they do have a leadership. And the
trouble with the current situation Chelsea is it's very fluid.
I was hearing some disquieting reports this morning, for example,
that Israel may have launched two air strikes on Damascus,
and also seen to be moving into an area beyond
the Golan Heats. For our listeners, the Golan Heats was
(05:08):
seized by Israel in nineteen sixty seven during the so
called Six Day War. They've never relinquished that Syrian territory,
and they now seem to be encroaching on further Syrian
territory or as they put it, security reasons. But you know,
this seems very premature, given the fact that Syria hasn't
yet got a chance to establish a post assad government
(05:31):
and already external actors are interfering in its domestic affairs.
This seems extremely troublesome.
Speaker 1 (05:44):
Some residents in Hamma are now celebrating the rebel takeover.
Thank God. We've been waiting for this da for a
long time, and we're all coming out on the street.
This is the happiest d for us. We were afreid
to go out at night. We've been waiting for this.
Speaker 4 (06:00):
Feelings that can't be described. It's been fifty years we've
been suffering injustice and crime and oppression. This is a
historic moment, a priceless moment.
Speaker 1 (06:13):
Well, I've seen videos and reports out of Damascus and
it seems like there's a lot of joy about the
end of the asserted regime. Notably, one of the presidential
palaces has been looted of all of its luxury goods.
Do you think it's fair to say that people are
actually quite happy about this.
Speaker 3 (06:27):
I think across the board, it should never be forgotten
that the Asad regime represented a sect called the Alo Whites,
which were a branch of the Shea community in Syria.
They represented about it's very difficult to put a precise
figure on it, between fifteen and seventeen percent of the population.
They were always too weak, so without external support, it
(06:50):
was always likely that as Sad regime will collapse, and
that's what's happened essentially. And I think there's enormous joy
across the political divide in Syria because it's recognized that
Asad's regime, I mean, the Asad family have been in
power for fifty four years, and one of the first
things the rebels did was release all political prisoners, and
(07:12):
so that's one a lot of goodwill. I think the
current leadership of THEIHD seem to be quite pragmatic, and
I think the international community must give the rebels a chance.
My view is that the Biden administration and the Western
world should welcome what seems to be the moderation of
the rebels and give them a chance to establish a
(07:33):
post a Sad democratic Syria. In other words, Syria's subject
at the moment to sanctions because of the behavior of
the ASAD dictatorship. I think the international community should create
a pathway or indicate a pathway by which those sanctions
could be lifted. And one pathway would be to say
to the new transitional leaders, could you please put in
(07:56):
place arrangements for a free and democratic Syria. If they
do that, they should be supported by the removal sanctions.
It's in our interest liberal democracies throughout the world is
in our interest to see the transition towards a much
more representative government in Syria. And I'm a little bit
concerned that some actors, such as the NEST and Yahoo government,
(08:18):
seem to be prejudging what's going to come out of
the post a Sad situation, and I think that's unfortunate.
Speaker 1 (08:26):
Well, the group is considered a terrorist organization by many nations,
but you've also got many welcoming the end of the
Assad dictatorship, including the UN Secretary General calling it a
historic opportunity to build a stable and peaceful future. Is
there a tricky balance here for foreign powers to work
with the group.
Speaker 3 (08:45):
Well, that's what I've tried to suggest, a balance that
is saying to the rebels that have overthrown a brutal
dictatorship which most Western countries would welcome, saying to them,
we fully support your verbal commitment to move towards democracy,
and we will effectively remove the sanctions regime because at
(09:06):
the moment, Syria has been crippled by sanctions. So if
you want Syria to move towards democracy, then I think
it's important that you create a pathway in which the
post are said, governing authorities can a series of milestones which,
if they meet, the sanctions will be reduced. In other words,
(09:27):
some incentives for the new leaders to move towards democracy,
and I think that's sensible. It seems to me that
this term terrorism is often banded about if you're opposing
a dictation. Remember the Asad family have been in power
since nineteen seventy and to give an example of the
sort of repression that went on in Syria, Basha Assad's
(09:48):
father imprisoned someone for forty three years simply because that
individual won an equestrian competition against one of his sons.
He did nothing else. If you choose to resist a dictatorship,
there's no peaceful path there to resist it, So by
definition you're probably going to have to use force. And
(10:09):
of course Asad depicted all of his opponents as terrorists,
but that's because he gave no opportunity, peaceful opportunity to
oppose his own regime. So we have to be very
careful about using these terms terrors.
Speaker 1 (10:33):
One of the big consequences of the Syrian conflict has,
of course been the millions of refugees it has created.
Twelve million people have been displaced over the last thirteen
years alone, and over five million of them have fled overseas.
We've seen many of them turn up in Europe and
exacerbate the continent's refugee crisis and political backlash. What does
(10:54):
the end of the Assad regime mean for those people
who have fled? Is there going to be a path
back for them? Do you think?
Speaker 3 (11:00):
I hope so, particularly and here the UN and in
particular the members of the UN Security Council, because after all,
the UN is only as strong or as weak as
its five permanent members of the Security Council allow it
to be I hope there will be an international consensus
on trying to establish post the transitional arrangements in Syria,
(11:23):
creating a pathway for representative government. If Syrians are convinced
there will be no return of repression and there is
a method of peacely transferring power, then I think many
of them would like to return. New Zealand, of course,
has absorbed about thirteen hundred Syrian refugees. I think there's
about close to four hundred in Dunedin and alone, and
(11:44):
they've settled and integrated very well into New Zealand society.
But obviously they didn't come here by choice. They came
because they were Their government was their own worst enemy. Unfortunately,
that is a reality for many people in the world
that the the entity that abuses their rights the most
is their governments. And of course, when you live in
(12:05):
a country which is free, like New Zealand and where
human rights are respected, we don't have to worry about
things like that. But that's not the case for many
people in the world. And I suppose to answer your question,
many Syrians would like to return if the international arrangements
are in place and the national arrangements are in place
in Syria for a post Assad democratic country, I think
(12:30):
many people will be playing wait and see for the
moment to see how things pan out. After all, if
you're living in New Zealand and you're originally from Syria,
you probably won't relish going back to Syria until you
can be pretty clear that there won't be a return
to the sort of repression that had led people to
(12:51):
leave the country they were born in in their first place.
But my sense is there is enormous joy amongst Syrians
right across the political board. The Asad family had monopolized
political power for fifty four years and were responsible for
appalling acts against their own citizens. It shouldn't be forgotten
that in twenty thirteen the Syrian regime used chemical weapons
(13:16):
against their own population, and then, of course, the Russians
stepped in to support the Assad regime and use the
most brutal methods in bombing civilian positions in Aleppo in
twenty sixteen. So this is not only just a defeat
for the Assaid regime, it's also a defeat for some
of their authoritarian supporters, like mister Putin's regime. In Moscow
(13:38):
and also the regime in Tehran.
Speaker 5 (13:42):
As rebels entered the capital as Uran war miight or
said present Assad left the country in what could spell
the end of his twenty four year rule and the
downfall of his plans five decade reigned. Well, several conflicting
reports have emerged in last few hours on a side.
So whereabout questions are being raised, where can this you in,
(14:05):
president and go?
Speaker 1 (14:10):
Well, of course, like you said before, Asad's regime is
being propped up by the likes of Russia and Iran,
and it has done so for the last decade. How
does this departure shake up relations in the regime, particularly
when you consider all those tensions between Israel, Iran and Lebanon.
Speaker 3 (14:27):
At the moment, it's very difficult to predict. Because I
was very struck by the fact that mister Biden in
a press conference was claiming credit by supporting Israel, the
enemies of Israel had been weakened, and that in turn
meant that the rebels could succeed in Syria. But what
was missing from that account was that America has actually
(14:48):
by supporting Neshnya, who's relentless bombardment of Gaza and its
invasion of Lebanon has actually contributed to even more instability
in the region. In particular, neither Israel under Mestergnieknyahu or
the United States seem to be dealing with the root
cause of instability in the Middle East, which is the
refusal to acknowledge the right of self political self determination
(15:13):
for the Palestinian people. It's difficult to predict how the
departure of the Assad regime will affect the dynamics of
the Middle East. I very much hope, and I think
this is probably the same for many Syrian citizens. I
would think what emerges from the horror of the Assad
regime is a transition to a democrat, a peaceful, democratic country,
(15:35):
and that would be wonderful. Of course, that wouldn't always
be welcomed by many of Syria's neighbors, Saudi Arabia, which
is an authoritarian regime, and indeed Iran, which is an
authoritarian regime. So it remains to be seen. I think
it's too early to predict. Many of us a week
ago wouldn't have predicted what happened in Syria, so I
(15:57):
think we have to be a little bit humble when
we look into our crystal ball predicting what will happen
after the fall of the Sad regime. I do think
even the Biden administration and more realistically, the Trump administration,
have to stay true to their policy in the Middle
East of a two state solution to the Israeli Palestinian problem,
(16:18):
and that to me is the key to removing some
of the grievances and hatred that have festered this region
for so long.
Speaker 4 (16:31):
It wasn't even daylight in Germany before they took to
the streets waving the distinctive green and black flag of
the opposition. Thousands of Syrians live and work in Germany, Many,
arriving in twenty and fifteen when then German Chancellor Angela
Merkel opened the borders to those fleeing oppression and war.
(16:54):
They gathered on the streets of Bucharest, the Romanian capital,
joy on their faces clear to see us. The news
of President as that's all spread like wildfire.
Speaker 1 (17:09):
Where does this leave Russia now that they've granted assad asylum,
Because I would have thought that Putin would want to
cut ties with him.
Speaker 3 (17:17):
No, I think mister Putin, having put Russian troops into
Syria and having lost Russian troops in Syria. Having spent
a lot of money there, wouldn't want to be seen
to be rubbishing or disowning his own policy. So he's
granted asylum to the Assad regime and Assad's family. I'm
(17:38):
sure this won't be a rent free situation. I'm sure
the riches of the Assad family will be used to
help facilitate that stay. But I think Putin probably decided
on balance it was politically safer for him to at
least be seen to be standing by the Assad family
at a time when the regime which the Russians had
(18:00):
supported was overthrown. The alternative was to disown Assad, but
in doing so, Putin ran the risk of disowning his
own policies for the last decade and a half.
Speaker 1 (18:12):
Do you think Assad could attempt to return to power
or does he know now that his goose is cooked.
Speaker 3 (18:18):
No. I think it's over for the Asad family. Now
we now know that not only is mister Putin a
giving a political asylum to the Asad family, but it
has also withdrawn from that naval base and withdrawn much
of its military capabilities from Syria. So I think there's
(18:39):
no prospect of a comeback by President Assad. He's widely
hated throughout the country, and if Syria does act on
the rhetoric of the rebels and move towards the democracy,
then it will be increasingly difficult for a sad reimpose
and authoritarian regime.
Speaker 1 (18:56):
Thanks for joining us, Robert.
Speaker 3 (18:58):
Thank you.
Speaker 1 (19:01):
That's it for this episode of The Front Page. You
can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage
at enzdherld dot co dot nz. The Front Page is
produced by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin, who is also
a sound engineer. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to The Front
Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts, and
(19:25):
tune in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.
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