Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:04):
Kyoda.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
I'm Georgena Campbell in for Chelsea Daniels and this is
the Front Page, a daily podcast presented by.
Speaker 3 (00:12):
The New Zealand Herald.
Speaker 2 (00:17):
The National Party will be gathering for its annual general
meeting this weekend. It comes as the party recently marked
eight months in power and as key campaign promises of
tax cuts and use bootcamps take effect, giving them plenty
to celebrate. But it's not been an easy ride for
(00:38):
the biggest party in Parliament, caught in the middle of
a coalition it would rather not be in, and facing
continue to push back over its handling of MALDI relations
and the environment. Today on the Front Page, we discuss
how National is handling these highs and lows with New
Zealand Herald political editor Clear Trevette Clear, what can we
(01:05):
expect from this weekend's conference?
Speaker 1 (01:08):
So it is the first of the National Party big
conferences since they got into government, so it will be
I guess luck, since first one as Prime minister. They'll
all be there to give their reckons on how much
the National Party has achieved. There will be presentations from
the key ministers, as there always is, on kind of
how things are tracking in their progression. And then the
(01:31):
members will get to debate a few of the remits,
which is kind of policy, kind of issues that they
like to cheer over and sometimes send a message to caucus.
And then Christopher Luxen will give his speech on Sunday
with I would expect some form of an announcement in
that speech, So it should be quite a big weekend
(01:53):
for them.
Speaker 2 (01:54):
So how different is a party's conference when that party
is in government? As you just indicated, they can and
actually make announcements. Can we expect it to be a
big one or is it more likely to be a
smaller one because of the coalition?
Speaker 1 (02:06):
Yeah, I've been trying to pick what the announcement might be.
So at some point they can differentiate between announcing something
that they're going to do in governments as opposed to
announcing what they might campaign on in the next election.
And in that case, national will soon start looking at
what they might start rolling out for the next election
campaign because they can't. Does Willie Nelly bring in new
(02:28):
policies this term? Really because of the coalition agreement, They've
agreed to do whatever's in those agreements, and that's kind
of where it stops. So if they want to do
anything that they hadn't campaigned on last time, and that
coalition partners hadn't agreed to. They would have to get
their approval before they could kind of do it. So
I'm just trying to work out which of the things
in the government's action plan haven't yet been done which
(02:50):
might form the basis of an announcement for this conference,
or whether or not Christopherlatson might picture a bit further
forward and give some indication of what they might be
thinking about doing in the next term and the event
they get through to the next election, what they might
campaign on. So we'll wait and see. I do know
the focus of the conference is going to be on
(03:11):
national core bread and butter issues such as the economy,
law and order, health and education, so I would be
picking that the announcement will be in the economy area
or the law and order area. It is a bit
different when they're in government because at their last conference,
you'll remember they went in there and they announced their
law and order policy, their corrections policy, and that was
(03:33):
the kind of keynote of that, and the speeches were
all full of how bad the Labor government was and
how National was going to make everything better. When you're
in government, you have to turn up and tell the
members what you've done to make it better now that
you're in government. But there will still be a bit
of a jab at the former labor government, I'm sure,
for the areas they might not have achieved as much
(03:54):
as they want it too, they'll still want to be
blaming the former labor government.
Speaker 4 (04:00):
Will your government achieve those twenty twenty eight child poverty productions?
Speaker 3 (04:04):
Well, we're coming from behind because actually the last government
saw child poverty increase because they leat inflation run completely
out of control. We inherited a cost of living crisis,
a recession, and part of our cleanup is getting people
off the job seeker benefit.
Speaker 4 (04:22):
Will your government commit to hitting those twenty twenty eight
child poverty reduction targets?
Speaker 3 (04:26):
That remains a target, but as you can see, it
would be extremely challenging to meet it.
Speaker 2 (04:35):
Do you think they might be particularly hyped up after
this week of their big promise being tax cuts coming
into effect. Do you think that sort of provides them
with a bit of energy going into the conference.
Speaker 1 (04:47):
Yeah, I think they will go in with a fair
bit of energy. So what you've got to remember is
that there are things that are upsetting people kind of
outside around the more controversial policies and stuff like that
aren't necessarily upsetting to the National Party member. A lot
of them are they call bread and butter issues, and
in the lead up to the conference there's been a
big chunk of those rolled out. So you've had the
(05:08):
tax cuts land the week before the conference, Yes, Nationals
delivered on that was very much the centerpiece of its
election campaign. It's also gone hard on law and order
and the lead up to it, it's rolled out the
military style boot camps, you know, the announcement that police
we're going to put more police on the beat. It's
just the kind of stuff that the National Party faithful like.
They like to see the police. They don't have much
(05:29):
sympathy for the kind of ins and outs of whether
or not we should be going tough on the crimson
or not. That kind of stuff. It's all very appealing
to them. And that stuff has all happened in the
lead up to the conference, so they will be going
and they're feeling pretty good about what has happened. And
then of course there's Sam and Brown with his Potholes
task forces. He's put that out so it's all kind
(05:52):
of roads, law and order and tax cuts. Is all
a good diet for a National Party member really, so
they'll be pretty happy with what they've seen in that regard.
Speaker 2 (06:01):
And how would you describe the current state of the party,
you know, compared to when National was in opposition, it
was a pretty tumultuous six years for them.
Speaker 1 (06:12):
Yes, well there of course a lot happier now. Those
are not good times and they do like to be
in governments, so they will be a lot happier than that.
I would say the party will be in pretty good appetite.
They've been pretty disciplined by and large, and in their
instances where there have been shortcomings, Christopher Luxen has dealt
with them pretty quickly, so they'll be pretty happy while
(06:32):
they're in government. The only question mark that some of
the members might have is around National's own polling, so
they're kind of used to the time they were. Possibly
the happiest was in the Key era when National was
regularly polling in the mid forties, even high forties, and
we're very much the dominant party. Sylvia would the party
(06:56):
president and the lead up to the conference, has said
that the aim of the National Party should always be
to be in the mid forties, and she would like
to see them get back to that position and be
less reliant or at least be stronger up against any
coalition partners they might have. I think they would see
their coalition agreement as a necessary evil rather than a
(07:20):
permanent feature for them basically, So they will be hoping
that National can rally it's polling back up at least
above forty mark and into the mid forties. So I
would say that that is kind of what the underlying
hopes would be and expectations actually of the National Party members.
That kind of raises the question of whether that is
(07:42):
almost nostalgic and whether MMP has evolved to the point
whether smaller parties will keep holding their own because so
FA and New Zealand First have held up. But there
will be questions around that, around whether or not National
has any way of bumping up their polling back over
the forty mark.
Speaker 2 (07:59):
And is that's an issue of National getting the cut
through to stand out and make their mark against the
likes of you know, Act in particular, it seems to
be generating a lot of headlines.
Speaker 1 (08:12):
Yeah, it's hard to see how they would do it.
Without cannibalizing their coalition partners, and to some extent, I
don't think they would necessarily think that was bad. They
would like them to be a bit weaker probably. I
would suspect the members would rather have a clean National
Act coalition rather than involve New Zealand. First. There's a
lot of big blood there, and yeah, the question is
(08:33):
how they do it, and especially how they do it
with without upsetting the coalition basically, so they've all got
kind of codes of behavior and stuff like that. As
the election starts to learn closer, we'll see the parties
start to differentiate themselves a bit more so at the moment,
Latson has been treading pretty carefully and just kind of
trying to distance National as much as possible from the
(08:56):
coalition partners' policies that are quite controversial, which they have
agreed to kind of support but don't necessarily want to
advocate too much. And a lot of those will be
in the race area around kind of Mariya Schuesler ex
Tretty Principal's bill. But their question is how they do
And I had it actually expected National to be holding
(09:16):
a little bit more strongly and the last one we
saw Luxeon tick up as preferred PM, purely by a
virtue of being in government, and they have been fairly active.
They have done things that they said they would do,
and at some point they will be hoping they get
the rewards for that.
Speaker 2 (09:43):
Christopher Luxen and Nikola Willis, how do you think they
are performing in their respective roles?
Speaker 1 (09:50):
Yeah, fairly well. Actually, I think Luckson has stepped up
fairly well. He's pretty good in the foreign affairs area.
He's kept the coalition running smoothly, and I think his
action plan kind of approach works because it makes it
look like they're doing a lot, and they actually are
kind of doing a fair bit, whether people like it
(10:11):
or not. I mean, his approaches worked to hold that
kind of coalition together. Doesn't overreact when one of the
coalition partners does something that he might not necessarily like.
Speaker 2 (10:22):
Has he spoken to Winston Peter's about the comments and
maybe today about Nazi Germany.
Speaker 4 (10:26):
No, I haven't had a chance to do so. But
that's not what I would say. I don't think that
is the way that I would phrase it at all.
Calling on people from all political parties to maintain the
civility in our politics and I don't think extreme language
on either side from any particular party is actually helpful
or necessary.
Speaker 1 (10:48):
And he's also proven recently in the Health New Zealand
situation that where there is a trouble potentially brewing, he
gets in there himself kind of thing to make sure
that everything's tickety bo. So he really revealed this week
that he is taking part in those regular meetings with
kind of Health New Zealand, the Finance Minister and the
Health Minister and all that, just to keep an eye
(11:10):
on how Health New Zealand's tracking. And I would say
he'll stay in there until that's kind of all resolved.
He likes to be on top of those kind of things.
Nikola Willis is a very impressive politician. She's very good
at selling National's case, she's good at speaking. I think
she's a pretty solid finance minister. So I think both
of those two are probably earning their keep at the moment.
(11:31):
Lucks it's made a few clubs. They won't matter to
the National Party membership really, and he would possibly see
them as learning things along the way.
Speaker 2 (11:42):
And are there any other ministers that stand out for
you as top performers in this government?
Speaker 1 (11:48):
They're very obvious. I mean I would put Willis in
that top list. Simian Brown is consistently very good. Chris
Bishop also very good. He's balancing his very heavy portfolio
with his more strategic role as Leader of the House
and that kind of strategy guy within national He's also
pretty impressive. Eric Stanford has been pretty impressive in education, immigration,
(12:15):
and over the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in
State care recently she's taken the charge on that. I
think in terms of the more visible ones, Muchure is
pretty well suited to his portfolios of police and emergency management.
He gets out there on the ground the moment emergency
situation kind of strikes and moves pretty quickly to get
(12:35):
that inquiry up and running over the Wide Isle River recently.
So they're probably the top performers. There's other ones who
are doing pretty well in their portfolios, basically the top
four or five as their top performers, so as you
would hope and expect. In terms of the lower down run,
Shane Retti is still under a bit of a test,
especially in regards to his handling around health New Zealand
(12:58):
and his ability to deal with not only the kind
of health system and clinical side of being the health minister,
but also the financial side and the political side of it.
So I wouldn't say he's good or bad at the moment,
but he's in a test period.
Speaker 2 (13:13):
Do you think that healthcare is a weakness for national
given the absolute strain the system is under at the
moment and shamee Retty as you say, sort of being
in a test period? Or does Christopher Luxen, in the
fact that he has sort of taken quite hands on
approaching that area, does that kind of compensate for that.
Speaker 1 (13:35):
I mean, it's all a kind of murky at the moment,
and it's not quite sure who has fluffed up and where,
which is why I've put Rety in a test pattern
rather than blaming anyone. So I don't know if it's
becoming an isses. So the most important thing is for
them to look like they're in control of it, which is,
you know, if they can assure people that they have
it in hand and they're in control and the whole
(13:56):
health system isn't going to crash around, We're not going
to run out of money and all that stuff, then
I think they'll be fine. I mean, where people see
the health systems when they actually turn up the hospitals
and the doctors and stuff. So that is kind of
where it comes to the crunch. I mean, health is
a problem for every single government because it's a bottomless
pit and there are always troubles with money, there always
(14:17):
troubles with the workforce, and flash points come up and
then they go, and it's more a matter of being
able to reassure people that you're kind of in control.
And I don't think health is an issue for them
at the moment. No, It's just a big topic which
will come up throughout the term and it's something that
you have to manage very carefully.
Speaker 2 (14:36):
Politically, the party used to leak frequently in opposition. How
have they managed to turn that around? What's the discipline like?
Speaker 1 (14:45):
Well, that was the result of an existential crisis that
they had after the twenty twenty election when they did
not fare very well at all and their former Prime
Minister John Key went down and tour strips off them
and told them that if they didn't stop leaking, they
would be forevermore. The party and opposition.
Speaker 5 (15:06):
Leadership, changes, missteps, disunity, leaks and mixed messaging in national
put them off us. I know it sounds harsh, but
it's true. If you can't quit your leaking, here's a clue,
quit the party here.
Speaker 1 (15:26):
They have then subsequently realized that John Key was right
and if they leaked, they lost, and also the change
of leadership in the end of it all and Christopher
Luxin's iron fist over the caucus. But to be fair,
rather than Luxelin's fist, good polling and the sniff of
success tends to exert strong disciplinary forces on a caucus,
(15:50):
and as long as the polling is good, that remains
the way because they do not want to throw it
all away again and.
Speaker 2 (15:56):
Clear, I feel like I couldn't have you as a
guest on the podcast without asking you about the cook
straight fairies. Do you think that issue is hurting the
party at all or you know, where would you put
that issue in terms of national's priorities.
Speaker 1 (16:14):
I think that that issue is the one that will
test I mean, you're more the expert on the fairies,
then may I have to be honest, But politically I
think that that's a test of judgment. Calls by Nikola Willis,
So when we see what they end up doing about
the fairies is when we'll be able to cast a
judgment on whether or not they have mishandled that or not,
and how much it enter costing the text payer and
(16:35):
how much of that is wasted spending. So I'm not
going to really comment on it before then because you're
the expert.
Speaker 2 (16:41):
So it's such a long long wait for that announcement
of what they're going to do with the fairies. Well,
look to run things off clear. Are you expecting a
triumphant atmosphere over the weekend. What are your expectations of
this conference?
Speaker 1 (16:58):
I think it will be content rather than triumphant as
such because of the nature of the coalition agreement. It
will be contented because they of course back in government,
but they will be the members will be very curious
to find out kind of what happens next for the
National Party and how National kind of makes its own
space and the coalition agreement. Without giving away too much,
(17:22):
I'll be quite interested to see if there's anything that
the members are concerned about in terms of what the
concessions that they have made for those coalition partners and
whether there is any concern about that or whether they
are just except that that's what had to be done
to get into government. So Yeah, I'll be hoping there'll
be some indication of which areas have disquieted the members
(17:43):
in terms of the games they've given to the other
parties and those coalition agreements.
Speaker 2 (17:48):
Thanks for joining us.
Speaker 1 (17:49):
Clear.
Speaker 2 (17:54):
That's it for this episode of the Front Page. You
can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage
at inzidherld dot co dot inzid. The Front Page is
produced by Ethan Sills and sound engineer Pattifox. I'm Georgina Campbell.
Subscribe to the Front Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you
(18:15):
get your podcasts, and tune in on Monday for another
look behind the headlines.