October 23, 2025 • 22 mins
New Zealand’s been experiencing some wild weather this week.
Red wind warnings were issued for much of Canterbury, Marlborough, Wellington and southern Wairarapa as at yesterday afternoon.
Flights and ferries were cancelled and tens of thousands of households have been without power.
Meanwhile, strong winds had been hampering firefighting efforts in several parts of the country.
So, is this usual for this time of year? And how long will we have to wait for some sunny days ahead?
Today on The Front Page, NIWA principal scientist Chris Brandolino is with us to take us through what’s causing this stormy weather, and whether there is light at the end of the tunnel.
Follow The Front Page on iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
You can read more about this and other stories in the New Zealand Herald, online at nzherald.co.nz, or tune in to news bulletins across the NZME network.
Host: Chelsea Daniels
Editor/Producer: Richard Martin
Producer: Jane Yee
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
Kioda. I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page,
a daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. New
Zealand has been experiencing some wild weather this week. Red
wind warnings were issued for much of Canterbury, Marlborough, Wellington
(00:25):
and southern Wadded Upper As it yesterday afternoon, flights and
fairies were canceled and tens of thousands of households have
been without power. Meanwhile, strong winds have been hampering firefighting
efforts in several parts of the country. So is this
usual for this time of year? And how long will
(00:46):
we have to wait for some sunny days ahead? Today
on the Front Page, Newer Principal scientist Chris Brandolino is
with us to take us through what's causing this stormy
weather and whether there is in fact a lot at
the end of the tunnel. First off, Chris tell us
(01:07):
why this is happening, what's causing these high winds across
the country.
Speaker 2 (01:12):
Two words pressure gradient, So you may be wondering what
the heck is that. Basically, yeah, it describes the change
of air pressure over distance. So think of it this way.
Replace the term pressure gradient with elevation change. Imagine, if
you're a cyclist, you're at the top of a hill,
(01:34):
right and you're gonna go down the hill. You're gonna
go a lot faster if the hill is steep, right,
going from the top of the hill to the bottom
of the hill, you'll go maybe not as fast. If
that hill is more gentle or not as steep, that
elevation change isn't as dramatic. Think of high pressure in
the atmosphere, like the top of the hill. High pressure
(01:55):
brings nice weather. And for those listening or watching from
the upper North Island, Auckland and Hamilton and toward Northland,
we had some beautiful weather on Sunday, going back to
the weekend, even better weather on Monday, not so bad
on Tuesday. That was because of high pressure. Now that's
one end of the spectrum. On the other end of
(02:15):
the spectrum, low pressure is like a hole in the
atmosphere and Mother Nature is trying to fill that hole
with the fluid called air. And so when you have
high pressure top of the hill, low pressure kind of
bottom of the hill, or a hole a valley. If
they're quite distinct in terms of one being high, one
being quite lower deep, then your elevation change or your
(02:37):
pressure gradient could be quite dramatic. And that is what
causes wind, is pressure gradient, the change in air pressure
over distance. If you think of it like a mountain
in a hill, if that makes sense.
Speaker 1 (02:48):
Yeah, when we hear about wind warnings of you know,
one hundred and thirty one hundred and fifty two hundred
kilometers an hour, what does that actually look like in
real terms?
Speaker 2 (03:00):
I think you just go on media right now, social
media to see the impact. You know, when you see
wing gusts of you know, one hundred and seventy one
hundred and eighty two hundred k you're getting to like,
you know, category two, category three tropical cyclone intensity. I mean,
this is not a tropical cyclone, but it's the intensity.
You know, you're trying to wrap your head around this,
(03:20):
and that is what can cause you know, these bursts
of wind which are wing gusts to three second bursts
of win That is what generally causes a lot of
the damage. And we've seen that play out. We've seen
wing gusts. I was just looking Invercargo. I had a
win gus to think of one hundred I'm looking off
screen here one hundred and thirty seven k and over
toward Gore a wing gust of one hundred and twenty
(03:41):
four k I believe, one hundred Yeah, and at Wellington
at the airport one hundred and twenty six and Cayle
Cow and Wellington Kyalkou the mountain there one hundred and
fifty five kilometers per hour. So that type of wing gust.
If you can't wrap your head around, just go to
social media and you see like the pine trees leaning down,
(04:03):
and like a whole row of pine trees over toward
Hamner Forest leaning down on power lines, you know, or
roofs being lifted, you know, obviously the trampolines and you
know any deck furniture things like that that'll be you know,
that could be k's down the road or you know,
half k hundreds of meters anyway, Yeah, is.
Speaker 1 (04:19):
This usual for this time of year?
Speaker 2 (04:22):
Uh? Not to this degree. I mean this is what
the red warning, you know, the red warning kind of
you know, reflects the unusual nature. We don't see those
every day, that's for sure. Look, spring is always a
changeable season. And with that change that that that variety.
I like to call spring the teenager of season because
a lot of mood swings ups and downs, and with
that moodiness comes win. So you know, it's not unusual
(04:43):
to have windy PIDs in spring. That's part of spring.
But this is like, this is next level, and what's
driving that is kind of nerdy. We've had a lot
of low pressure that whole in the atmosphere I've talked about, right,
we had a over the subn Ocean, so the Suthern
Ocean is that big body of water separating New Zealand
and Antarctica, you know, down to the ice and we've
(05:04):
had low pressure just favoring and continuously moving through the
Southern Ocean, brushing against the South Island at times, and
that has been a big reason for our wind, our
strong westerly wind. Why is that low pressure in the
Southern Ocean? Why is it there a lot? Well, believed
it or not, We can trace that back to Antarctica
(05:27):
of all places. So at the very top of the atmosphere,
like way at the very top over the South Pole
back in September, the temperatures got really warm, really fast,
at least for that part of the atmosphere. And when
that happened, kind of jumping to the chase, if you will.
What that did is that that kind of displaced all
that low pressure that typically favors the Antarctic region, what
(05:50):
we call the polar vortex. It basically allowed for that
low pressure to be displaced into the Southern Ocean, and
because of that, we now have these strong westerly winds,
big hole in the atmosphere, if you will, over the
southern ocean, kind of a decent sized mountain near northern
New Zealand, and that those two features are creating that
(06:14):
pressure gradient, that change in pressure or as we said before,
that change in elevation. And this is why we've seen
these persistent episodes of high wind. We saw them earlier
in their week, we see we're seeing them now and
guess what, we're probably gonna see it again next week
on Labor Day. So just the heads up for those
getting a headstart on the unofficial start to the I
guess summer season, be mindful that Monday of next week
(06:38):
things are still you know, crystallizing, but there will be
another low coming from the west and north, and that
will probably bring with it another round of active weather,
probably not to the degree we're seeing today, but still
could be quite impactful because it's a big travel day
and people will be you know, enjoying the public holiday.
So that is something we could see again. And we
(07:00):
could see some really cold temperatures, unusually cold temperatures behind
that on Tuesday, which could impact farmers and livestock because
we'renowned to the growing season. So because of these big swings,
like right now in kai Kota, it got to more
than thirty degrees today, thirty degrees but yeah, and then
(07:20):
we're talking about much cooler temperatures tomorrow. Then we're talking
about temperatures going up on Sunday and Monday, Labor Day,
then going back down on Tuesday. Those big temperature changes,
they are congruent with wind. Whenever you have these big
temperature changes, oftentimes a reflection of those temperature changes up
and down that roller coaster is strong wind. So what
(07:42):
we're seeing play out high wind, active weather, big temperature changes,
they're all kind of connected.
Speaker 1 (07:47):
Have we any idea when things should stabilize?
Speaker 2 (07:51):
That's a great question. Look, if you would have asked
me that, if we were talking like a month ago,
if you asked me that question, I would have said,
with a fair bit of confidence, Oh, it'll come right,
middle second half of October. Well, guess what. We're in
the second half of October and we're still talking about it.
What I talked about over Antarctica, that rapid warming at
(08:14):
the very tippy top of the atmosphere. That's called a
sudden stratospheric warming event. We just call it SSW. So
use an SSW drop that in your dinner time conversation.
You'll raise some eyebrows. That SSW that tends to have
lingering effects weeks several weeks after. So it looks like
this sort of pattern where we have active weather, strong westerlies,
(08:38):
things like that, up and down with temperature. It's probably
going to continue through at least the rest of October.
So we got another week or so, and if you
look at the long range guidance, it actually may go
into the first ten days of November, so we may
have to wait until the middle second week, third week
of November. Once that happens, it will happen eventually. It's
(09:00):
a matter of being delayed but not denied. But when
it does happen, the expectation as will have settled weather
kick in over the country, high pressure and we should
see a change in the rainfall patterns. So for the
past couple months, since the beginning of spring, it's the
west of the South Island that's been getting hammered with
a lot of rain, mountains, snow, high wind. That's probably
(09:24):
gonna and we have dry weather for the eastern part
of the islands, especially up toward Hawk's Bay where they
have some pretty dry conditions. Once we see that pattern shift,
our winds are going to shift. And when our wind shift,
so does the rainfall pattern. So as we work our
way into the second half of November and into summer
proper December, January, and February, odds are we should see
(09:48):
the areas that have been wet Western and lower South
Island they should become drier, and areas that have been
dry Hawk's Bay, Eastern Northland, their odds for rainfall should
start going up. It may take another two three four weeks.
That happened.
Speaker 1 (10:09):
Our power has gone out in the big Pine Tree,
one of them has just gone over. There is flying everywhere,
plastic milk, things flying.
Speaker 2 (10:20):
From god knows where. Stuff is just coming from everywhere
that the fences are also down. Those deer are going
to disappear.
Speaker 1 (10:29):
Up that river, a roof ti up, we just lost
out of the roof.
Speaker 2 (10:34):
But the pine tree shelter about of the neighbors.
Speaker 1 (10:37):
And the trees are just going over like dominoes dog.
And we're only at one hundred and six k.
Speaker 2 (10:44):
So if we get up to one fifty's going, oh
my god, turn the power off.
Speaker 1 (10:51):
That roof's gone.
Speaker 2 (10:52):
That's part of it there, and then the other part
of it is where over the other side of the road.
Speaker 1 (10:58):
Now we all know that climate change has a huge
impact on weather patterns. I mean, surely by now everybody
must know this is that what's at play here? Are
we still within what's called normal weather patterns.
Speaker 2 (11:13):
Look, climate change doesn't cause extreme weather, just like fertilizer
doesn't make grass grow. It makes it grow better, makes
it grow faster and overcome things. But climate change does.
It makes extreme weather a more extreme, b makes it
(11:34):
more likely to happen, and c makes it more frequent.
So climate change in itself isn't the culprit for extreme weather.
Extreme weather has always happened, as we know, but it
makes the extremes higher or more extreme, and the frequency
and the likelihood of them grow with climate change. So
(11:56):
to your you know, if people are wondering this weather
event that we're seeing now is that because of climate change. Look,
I'm not a climate change expert. My guess is that
it's not because of climate change, but there may be
some footprints of climate change, maybe because of warmer than
usual oceans around New Zealand the Tasman. See, if you
have a warmer ocean, warmer than usual, that puts more water, vapor,
(12:19):
more energy in the air, and that sort of energy
can help fuel storm. But it's a complex process. No
one event is caused by climate change, but as I say,
it makes these events more frequent, more likely, and more intense.
Speaker 1 (12:33):
So easy to think about the damage in sensational terms.
You know, you've got trees falling on cars, roofs being
lifted off buildings, et cetera. But there's also things like
planes being grounded, power outages. I mean, Nelson Hospital suffered
a forty five minute power outage yesterday, and forty five
minutes might not seem like a lot, but when you've
got people hooked up to machines or breathing for them,
(12:55):
then it's really serious. What are some of the less
I suppose sensational but still very costly or dangerous risks
of severe weather well.
Speaker 2 (13:04):
I think people's mental well being is one of them.
You know, just think about for those who experienced the
severe weather events back in early twenty twenty three, when
we had the Auckland Anniversary flooding, and then we had
cyclone Gabrielle, and then you know, there are other flooding
events after that, and you just you start to get
(13:25):
a bit jumpy. I mean I did, and I produce
is my living and every time there'd be a heavy downpour,
it kind of triggers you a little bit, you know.
So I think people's mental health and is one facet
of how people can be affected adversely by high impact
weather events. Obviously, your insurance claims, you know, when you
have to you know, if your house gets destroyed or
(13:47):
your roof gets torn off, or you have flooding to
deal with, you're gonna have to put a claim in
and you know, odds are your claim's gonna your insurance
premiums are gonna go up, even you know if the
claim is sorted, and you know, but it's dealing with
all the sort of those day to day you know,
your day to day life. I can only imagine, you know,
if my roof is blown off, you know, it's one
thing you got to make dinner and go about doing
(14:08):
your business day to day. But if you have no roof,
it just throws a complete spanner in the works. It
just and that goes back to the mental health component.
Speaker 1 (14:14):
I suppose that weather fatigue.
Speaker 2 (14:17):
Hey yeah, yeah, exactly, great, great term fatigue exactly. So
I mean it's things like that. It's things like maybe
you know, if you know, it could be if trucks
are driving and they're they're pushed over on the roadway.
You know, maybe that's a delivery that doesn't get somewhere,
so people's businesses, things have to shut down. So maybe
there's an impact of the economy. So there's a lot
(14:38):
of sort of I guess, long reaching things that we
could probably have a pretty long conversation about that it's
are hard to maybe quantify without you know, that's probably
kind of a research or a science questions like how
do you quantify the impacts of a significant weather event
or a multitude of significant weather events that are in succession,
you know, how, you know, beside the obvious of you know,
(15:00):
people's injury and property damage, And I imagine that would
be long reaching, and that would be kind of from
a science perspective, kind of fascinating in some ways. I
would think we're.
Speaker 1 (15:09):
Talking to you on Thursday afternoon, of course, while the
warnings are still in place. But already there's been a
tragic death of a man in Willington who was struck
by a falling branch, and there could be more damage
and injuries by the time this episode is published.
Speaker 2 (15:25):
But as a.
Speaker 1 (15:25):
Stark reminder, I think of the power of these systems.
Do we take these things seriously enough?
Speaker 2 (15:34):
Yeah, it's kind of a tough one because I mean,
the red warnings are really good, because what's built into
a red warning is like, oh, this is different. I
need to behave differently, I need to really think about
my decisions if I'm on if I'm in that red
warning area. But when you go to other warnings, potentially
there is an element of like, well, how does this
(15:56):
event different from another event that maybe isn't quite so severe.
I know MET Service, we're working with met Service. Obviously.
MET Service is becoming part of the Earth Sciences New
Zealand Fauna where you know GNS and NEILO they were separate.
Now we're one met Service coming into the fold, which
is great because we need this as a country in
order to deal with what mother nature throws our away.
So this is a really good thing. And one of
(16:17):
the things that I know met Service is doing and
they're keenon progressing, is kind of changing the warning system
and improving the warning system. So hopefully those changes will
will address some of the things that that what your
question is about. But I think I think at the
heart of it and any warning system. This could be
an Aussie, this could be in America, this could be
(16:37):
in the UK. Is you hear about a warning and
then oh, yeah, the weather is bad, but maybe you
didn't have a big impact. Maybe your house didn't get
you know, damaged, or maybe your property wasn't damaged by
falling trees, and so you hear there's another warning coming,
and you know you're gonna go by memory. Well, heck,
the last time there was a warning, nothing really happened
(16:58):
to me. So I don't really you know, I don't
really need to take any action, or oh yeah, there
a weather forecasters they get it wrong. You know they're
gonna say this and it doesn't really happen. And so
there's a bit of that that's a big social science
question actually, So this is where social sciences play a
key role into the development of say, weather warnings, and
how to communicate them and how to how to basically
(17:20):
frame them in a lot of ways. So there is
an element of and hopefully I'm answering your question. I
realize I'm talking a lot, but maybe not giving you
a useful answer because it's a hard one to articulate
and it's just not my specialty in terms of social science,
you know, obviously, but I think, you know, just from
being in the business for so long, people kind of like, ah,
she'll be right att itude. Well maybe she won't be,
(17:41):
you know, Like this is where I think there can
be some improvements from a science and weather provider perspective.
But I also think there can be some improvements with
people really taking you know, some education where people do
take the warnings more seriously because they often go by
what happened before, and just because something happened for it
and didn't result in a bad impact for you, you know,
(18:03):
your roof being torn off, your house being flooded or damaged,
it doesn't guarantee that will happen again. Unfortunately, weather forecasts
that can only be so precise. So when the weather
warning is issued, they're usually issued for a large area
like Canterbury. Canterbury is a huge area, but the impacts
can be quite variable in Canterbury, you know, unless it's
(18:23):
something has still worked, like Gabrielle, where there was really
widespread damage. But even then there were you know, not
you know, there were landslips in one place is but
not in the other. Some rivers had really really bad flooding,
some didn't. So part of it, too, is that warnings
are issued for broad areas, but there can be variable
impacts within that warning area. Some could have really really
(18:45):
high impacts and some areas the impacts would be quite pedestrian.
If at all this is hid, I'll get here. They're
gonna be paid for all, guys. WHOA.
Speaker 1 (19:12):
Look, I've heard a lot of people wondering where is spring,
And I've heard a lot of talk people talk about
whether the seasons are changing. So at what point do
you think we scraped with the current season calendar altogether
(19:33):
and shift everything by a month and call it a day.
Speaker 2 (19:36):
No, I can't do that. Look, seasons are a human construct, right,
The seasons are changing in the way and we had
a scientist who since passed on, but doctor Brett Mullen,
I remember when I first came to at the time NIWA.
He did a bit of, you know, I guess, a
bit of an investigation on have has the have the
(20:00):
seasons changed? And what he did is he looked at
when the first frost occurred and for select locations around
the country. And it turned out, and I'm going off
memory here, hopefully I don't, Butcher his his his findings
that basically frosts were happening later in autumn. So the
(20:20):
first frost, you know, it's happening later, deeper into the season,
and the last frost was happening in springtime was happening earlier.
So what happens is that the shoulder seasons are getting warmer,
the shoulder seasons being autumn and spring, right, So what
we're seeing is that the warmth is lingering longer. So
(20:41):
when summer ends, we enter autumn, and that warmth is
lingering a bit longer and longer, and it takes longer
for that first frost to occur. Also in springtime, we're
warming up a bit sooner, so the last frost happens
a bit earlier, so using that as a metric. Yeah,
the seasons are evolving, but looks people are probably like,
(21:02):
where a spring? This is spring, man, this is spring. Now,
I admittedly this is spring kind of next level with
the high wind and we've seen these damaging wind events.
We've seen a lot of rain.
Speaker 1 (21:14):
This is spring heating puberty.
Speaker 2 (21:18):
Well said, Yeah, but even even if this spring weren't
as volatile or as active, and it was maybe a
notch lower, this would be pretty typical. Acknowledging today and
Tuesday and other days have not been typical. Just that
if they were brought down a bit, you know, you
know that's normal. You know, spring has ups and downs.
It is the teenager of the seasons.
Speaker 1 (21:40):
Very Moody, thanks for joining us, Chris.
Speaker 2 (21:42):
Thanks for having me.
Speaker 1 (21:46):
That's it for this episode of the Front Page. You
can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage
at ends a Herald, dot co, dot enz. The Front
Page is produced by Jane Ye and Richard Martin, who
also our editor. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to the Front
Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts, and
(22:08):
tune in on Monday for another look behind the headlines,
Kioda. I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page,
a daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. New
Zealand has been experiencing some wild weather this week. Red
wind warnings were issued for much of Canterbury, Marlborough, Wellington
(00:25):
and southern Wadded Upper As it yesterday afternoon, flights and
fairies were canceled and tens of thousands of households have
been without power. Meanwhile, strong winds have been hampering firefighting
efforts in several parts of the country. So is this
usual for this time of year? And how long will
(00:46):
we have to wait for some sunny days ahead? Today
on the Front Page, Newer Principal scientist Chris Brandolino is
with us to take us through what's causing this stormy
weather and whether there is in fact a lot at
the end of the tunnel. First off, Chris tell us
(01:07):
why this is happening, what's causing these high winds across
the country.
Speaker 2 (01:12):
Two words pressure gradient, So you may be wondering what
the heck is that. Basically, yeah, it describes the change
of air pressure over distance. So think of it this way.
Replace the term pressure gradient with elevation change. Imagine, if
you're a cyclist, you're at the top of a hill,
(01:34):
right and you're gonna go down the hill. You're gonna
go a lot faster if the hill is steep, right,
going from the top of the hill to the bottom
of the hill, you'll go maybe not as fast. If
that hill is more gentle or not as steep, that
elevation change isn't as dramatic. Think of high pressure in
the atmosphere, like the top of the hill. High pressure
(01:55):
brings nice weather. And for those listening or watching from
the upper North Island, Auckland and Hamilton and toward Northland,
we had some beautiful weather on Sunday, going back to
the weekend, even better weather on Monday, not so bad
on Tuesday. That was because of high pressure. Now that's
one end of the spectrum. On the other end of
(02:15):
the spectrum, low pressure is like a hole in the
atmosphere and Mother Nature is trying to fill that hole
with the fluid called air. And so when you have
high pressure top of the hill, low pressure kind of
bottom of the hill, or a hole a valley. If
they're quite distinct in terms of one being high, one
being quite lower deep, then your elevation change or your
(02:37):
pressure gradient could be quite dramatic. And that is what
causes wind, is pressure gradient, the change in air pressure
over distance. If you think of it like a mountain
in a hill, if that makes sense.
Speaker 1 (02:48):
Yeah, when we hear about wind warnings of you know,
one hundred and thirty one hundred and fifty two hundred
kilometers an hour, what does that actually look like in
real terms?
Speaker 2 (03:00):
I think you just go on media right now, social
media to see the impact. You know, when you see
wing gusts of you know, one hundred and seventy one
hundred and eighty two hundred k you're getting to like,
you know, category two, category three tropical cyclone intensity. I mean,
this is not a tropical cyclone, but it's the intensity.
You know, you're trying to wrap your head around this,
(03:20):
and that is what can cause you know, these bursts
of wind which are wing gusts to three second bursts
of win That is what generally causes a lot of
the damage. And we've seen that play out. We've seen
wing gusts. I was just looking Invercargo. I had a
win gus to think of one hundred I'm looking off
screen here one hundred and thirty seven k and over
toward Gore a wing gust of one hundred and twenty
(03:41):
four k I believe, one hundred Yeah, and at Wellington
at the airport one hundred and twenty six and Cayle
Cow and Wellington Kyalkou the mountain there one hundred and
fifty five kilometers per hour. So that type of wing gust.
If you can't wrap your head around, just go to
social media and you see like the pine trees leaning down,
(04:03):
and like a whole row of pine trees over toward
Hamner Forest leaning down on power lines, you know, or
roofs being lifted, you know, obviously the trampolines and you
know any deck furniture things like that that'll be you know,
that could be k's down the road or you know,
half k hundreds of meters anyway, Yeah, is.
Speaker 1 (04:19):
This usual for this time of year?
Speaker 2 (04:22):
Uh? Not to this degree. I mean this is what
the red warning, you know, the red warning kind of
you know, reflects the unusual nature. We don't see those
every day, that's for sure. Look, spring is always a
changeable season. And with that change that that that variety.
I like to call spring the teenager of season because
a lot of mood swings ups and downs, and with
that moodiness comes win. So you know, it's not unusual
(04:43):
to have windy PIDs in spring. That's part of spring.
But this is like, this is next level, and what's
driving that is kind of nerdy. We've had a lot
of low pressure that whole in the atmosphere I've talked about, right,
we had a over the subn Ocean, so the Suthern
Ocean is that big body of water separating New Zealand
and Antarctica, you know, down to the ice and we've
(05:04):
had low pressure just favoring and continuously moving through the
Southern Ocean, brushing against the South Island at times, and
that has been a big reason for our wind, our
strong westerly wind. Why is that low pressure in the
Southern Ocean? Why is it there a lot? Well, believed
it or not, We can trace that back to Antarctica
(05:27):
of all places. So at the very top of the atmosphere,
like way at the very top over the South Pole
back in September, the temperatures got really warm, really fast,
at least for that part of the atmosphere. And when
that happened, kind of jumping to the chase, if you will.
What that did is that that kind of displaced all
that low pressure that typically favors the Antarctic region, what
(05:50):
we call the polar vortex. It basically allowed for that
low pressure to be displaced into the Southern Ocean, and
because of that, we now have these strong westerly winds,
big hole in the atmosphere, if you will, over the
southern ocean, kind of a decent sized mountain near northern
New Zealand, and that those two features are creating that
(06:14):
pressure gradient, that change in pressure or as we said before,
that change in elevation. And this is why we've seen
these persistent episodes of high wind. We saw them earlier
in their week, we see we're seeing them now and
guess what, we're probably gonna see it again next week
on Labor Day. So just the heads up for those
getting a headstart on the unofficial start to the I
guess summer season, be mindful that Monday of next week
(06:38):
things are still you know, crystallizing, but there will be
another low coming from the west and north, and that
will probably bring with it another round of active weather,
probably not to the degree we're seeing today, but still
could be quite impactful because it's a big travel day
and people will be you know, enjoying the public holiday.
So that is something we could see again. And we
(07:00):
could see some really cold temperatures, unusually cold temperatures behind
that on Tuesday, which could impact farmers and livestock because
we'renowned to the growing season. So because of these big swings,
like right now in kai Kota, it got to more
than thirty degrees today, thirty degrees but yeah, and then
(07:20):
we're talking about much cooler temperatures tomorrow. Then we're talking
about temperatures going up on Sunday and Monday, Labor Day,
then going back down on Tuesday. Those big temperature changes,
they are congruent with wind. Whenever you have these big
temperature changes, oftentimes a reflection of those temperature changes up
and down that roller coaster is strong wind. So what
(07:42):
we're seeing play out high wind, active weather, big temperature changes,
they're all kind of connected.
Speaker 1 (07:47):
Have we any idea when things should stabilize?
Speaker 2 (07:51):
That's a great question. Look, if you would have asked
me that, if we were talking like a month ago,
if you asked me that question, I would have said,
with a fair bit of confidence, Oh, it'll come right,
middle second half of October. Well, guess what. We're in
the second half of October and we're still talking about it.
What I talked about over Antarctica, that rapid warming at
(08:14):
the very tippy top of the atmosphere. That's called a
sudden stratospheric warming event. We just call it SSW. So
use an SSW drop that in your dinner time conversation.
You'll raise some eyebrows. That SSW that tends to have
lingering effects weeks several weeks after. So it looks like
this sort of pattern where we have active weather, strong westerlies,
(08:38):
things like that, up and down with temperature. It's probably
going to continue through at least the rest of October.
So we got another week or so, and if you
look at the long range guidance, it actually may go
into the first ten days of November, so we may
have to wait until the middle second week, third week
of November. Once that happens, it will happen eventually. It's
(09:00):
a matter of being delayed but not denied. But when
it does happen, the expectation as will have settled weather
kick in over the country, high pressure and we should
see a change in the rainfall patterns. So for the
past couple months, since the beginning of spring, it's the
west of the South Island that's been getting hammered with
a lot of rain, mountains, snow, high wind. That's probably
(09:24):
gonna and we have dry weather for the eastern part
of the islands, especially up toward Hawk's Bay where they
have some pretty dry conditions. Once we see that pattern shift,
our winds are going to shift. And when our wind shift,
so does the rainfall pattern. So as we work our
way into the second half of November and into summer
proper December, January, and February, odds are we should see
(09:48):
the areas that have been wet Western and lower South
Island they should become drier, and areas that have been
dry Hawk's Bay, Eastern Northland, their odds for rainfall should
start going up. It may take another two three four weeks.
That happened.
Speaker 1 (10:09):
Our power has gone out in the big Pine Tree,
one of them has just gone over. There is flying everywhere,
plastic milk, things flying.
Speaker 2 (10:20):
From god knows where. Stuff is just coming from everywhere
that the fences are also down. Those deer are going
to disappear.
Speaker 1 (10:29):
Up that river, a roof ti up, we just lost
out of the roof.
Speaker 2 (10:34):
But the pine tree shelter about of the neighbors.
Speaker 1 (10:37):
And the trees are just going over like dominoes dog.
And we're only at one hundred and six k.
Speaker 2 (10:44):
So if we get up to one fifty's going, oh
my god, turn the power off.
Speaker 1 (10:51):
That roof's gone.
Speaker 2 (10:52):
That's part of it there, and then the other part
of it is where over the other side of the road.
Speaker 1 (10:58):
Now we all know that climate change has a huge
impact on weather patterns. I mean, surely by now everybody
must know this is that what's at play here? Are
we still within what's called normal weather patterns.
Speaker 2 (11:13):
Look, climate change doesn't cause extreme weather, just like fertilizer
doesn't make grass grow. It makes it grow better, makes
it grow faster and overcome things. But climate change does.
It makes extreme weather a more extreme, b makes it
(11:34):
more likely to happen, and c makes it more frequent.
So climate change in itself isn't the culprit for extreme weather.
Extreme weather has always happened, as we know, but it
makes the extremes higher or more extreme, and the frequency
and the likelihood of them grow with climate change. So
(11:56):
to your you know, if people are wondering this weather
event that we're seeing now is that because of climate change. Look,
I'm not a climate change expert. My guess is that
it's not because of climate change, but there may be
some footprints of climate change, maybe because of warmer than
usual oceans around New Zealand the Tasman. See, if you
have a warmer ocean, warmer than usual, that puts more water, vapor,
(12:19):
more energy in the air, and that sort of energy
can help fuel storm. But it's a complex process. No
one event is caused by climate change, but as I say,
it makes these events more frequent, more likely, and more intense.
Speaker 1 (12:33):
So easy to think about the damage in sensational terms.
You know, you've got trees falling on cars, roofs being
lifted off buildings, et cetera. But there's also things like
planes being grounded, power outages. I mean, Nelson Hospital suffered
a forty five minute power outage yesterday, and forty five
minutes might not seem like a lot, but when you've
got people hooked up to machines or breathing for them,
(12:55):
then it's really serious. What are some of the less
I suppose sensational but still very costly or dangerous risks
of severe weather well.
Speaker 2 (13:04):
I think people's mental well being is one of them.
You know, just think about for those who experienced the
severe weather events back in early twenty twenty three, when
we had the Auckland Anniversary flooding, and then we had
cyclone Gabrielle, and then you know, there are other flooding
events after that, and you just you start to get
(13:25):
a bit jumpy. I mean I did, and I produce
is my living and every time there'd be a heavy downpour,
it kind of triggers you a little bit, you know.
So I think people's mental health and is one facet
of how people can be affected adversely by high impact
weather events. Obviously, your insurance claims, you know, when you
have to you know, if your house gets destroyed or
(13:47):
your roof gets torn off, or you have flooding to
deal with, you're gonna have to put a claim in
and you know, odds are your claim's gonna your insurance
premiums are gonna go up, even you know if the
claim is sorted, and you know, but it's dealing with
all the sort of those day to day you know,
your day to day life. I can only imagine, you know,
if my roof is blown off, you know, it's one
thing you got to make dinner and go about doing
(14:08):
your business day to day. But if you have no roof,
it just throws a complete spanner in the works. It
just and that goes back to the mental health component.
Speaker 1 (14:14):
I suppose that weather fatigue.
Speaker 2 (14:17):
Hey yeah, yeah, exactly, great, great term fatigue exactly. So
I mean it's things like that. It's things like maybe
you know, if you know, it could be if trucks
are driving and they're they're pushed over on the roadway.
You know, maybe that's a delivery that doesn't get somewhere,
so people's businesses, things have to shut down. So maybe
there's an impact of the economy. So there's a lot
(14:38):
of sort of I guess, long reaching things that we
could probably have a pretty long conversation about that it's
are hard to maybe quantify without you know, that's probably
kind of a research or a science questions like how
do you quantify the impacts of a significant weather event
or a multitude of significant weather events that are in succession,
you know, how, you know, beside the obvious of you know,
(15:00):
people's injury and property damage, And I imagine that would
be long reaching, and that would be kind of from
a science perspective, kind of fascinating in some ways. I
would think we're.
Speaker 1 (15:09):
Talking to you on Thursday afternoon, of course, while the
warnings are still in place. But already there's been a
tragic death of a man in Willington who was struck
by a falling branch, and there could be more damage
and injuries by the time this episode is published.
Speaker 2 (15:25):
But as a.
Speaker 1 (15:25):
Stark reminder, I think of the power of these systems.
Do we take these things seriously enough?
Speaker 2 (15:34):
Yeah, it's kind of a tough one because I mean,
the red warnings are really good, because what's built into
a red warning is like, oh, this is different. I
need to behave differently, I need to really think about
my decisions if I'm on if I'm in that red
warning area. But when you go to other warnings, potentially
there is an element of like, well, how does this
(15:56):
event different from another event that maybe isn't quite so severe.
I know MET Service, we're working with met Service. Obviously.
MET Service is becoming part of the Earth Sciences New
Zealand Fauna where you know GNS and NEILO they were separate.
Now we're one met Service coming into the fold, which
is great because we need this as a country in
order to deal with what mother nature throws our away.
So this is a really good thing. And one of
(16:17):
the things that I know met Service is doing and
they're keenon progressing, is kind of changing the warning system
and improving the warning system. So hopefully those changes will
will address some of the things that that what your
question is about. But I think I think at the
heart of it and any warning system. This could be
an Aussie, this could be in America, this could be
(16:37):
in the UK. Is you hear about a warning and
then oh, yeah, the weather is bad, but maybe you
didn't have a big impact. Maybe your house didn't get
you know, damaged, or maybe your property wasn't damaged by
falling trees, and so you hear there's another warning coming,
and you know you're gonna go by memory. Well, heck,
the last time there was a warning, nothing really happened
(16:58):
to me. So I don't really you know, I don't
really need to take any action, or oh yeah, there
a weather forecasters they get it wrong. You know they're
gonna say this and it doesn't really happen. And so
there's a bit of that that's a big social science
question actually, So this is where social sciences play a
key role into the development of say, weather warnings, and
how to communicate them and how to how to basically
(17:20):
frame them in a lot of ways. So there is
an element of and hopefully I'm answering your question. I
realize I'm talking a lot, but maybe not giving you
a useful answer because it's a hard one to articulate
and it's just not my specialty in terms of social science,
you know, obviously, but I think, you know, just from
being in the business for so long, people kind of like, ah,
she'll be right att itude. Well maybe she won't be,
(17:41):
you know, Like this is where I think there can
be some improvements from a science and weather provider perspective.
But I also think there can be some improvements with
people really taking you know, some education where people do
take the warnings more seriously because they often go by
what happened before, and just because something happened for it
and didn't result in a bad impact for you, you know,
(18:03):
your roof being torn off, your house being flooded or damaged,
it doesn't guarantee that will happen again. Unfortunately, weather forecasts
that can only be so precise. So when the weather
warning is issued, they're usually issued for a large area
like Canterbury. Canterbury is a huge area, but the impacts
can be quite variable in Canterbury, you know, unless it's
(18:23):
something has still worked, like Gabrielle, where there was really
widespread damage. But even then there were you know, not
you know, there were landslips in one place is but
not in the other. Some rivers had really really bad flooding,
some didn't. So part of it, too, is that warnings
are issued for broad areas, but there can be variable
impacts within that warning area. Some could have really really
(18:45):
high impacts and some areas the impacts would be quite pedestrian.
If at all this is hid, I'll get here. They're
gonna be paid for all, guys. WHOA.
Speaker 1 (19:12):
Look, I've heard a lot of people wondering where is spring,
And I've heard a lot of talk people talk about
whether the seasons are changing. So at what point do
you think we scraped with the current season calendar altogether
(19:33):
and shift everything by a month and call it a day.
Speaker 2 (19:36):
No, I can't do that. Look, seasons are a human construct, right,
The seasons are changing in the way and we had
a scientist who since passed on, but doctor Brett Mullen,
I remember when I first came to at the time NIWA.
He did a bit of, you know, I guess, a
bit of an investigation on have has the have the
(20:00):
seasons changed? And what he did is he looked at
when the first frost occurred and for select locations around
the country. And it turned out, and I'm going off
memory here, hopefully I don't, Butcher his his his findings
that basically frosts were happening later in autumn. So the
(20:20):
first frost, you know, it's happening later, deeper into the season,
and the last frost was happening in springtime was happening earlier.
So what happens is that the shoulder seasons are getting warmer,
the shoulder seasons being autumn and spring, right, So what
we're seeing is that the warmth is lingering longer. So
(20:41):
when summer ends, we enter autumn, and that warmth is
lingering a bit longer and longer, and it takes longer
for that first frost to occur. Also in springtime, we're
warming up a bit sooner, so the last frost happens
a bit earlier, so using that as a metric. Yeah,
the seasons are evolving, but looks people are probably like,
(21:02):
where a spring? This is spring, man, this is spring. Now,
I admittedly this is spring kind of next level with
the high wind and we've seen these damaging wind events.
We've seen a lot of rain.
Speaker 1 (21:14):
This is spring heating puberty.
Speaker 2 (21:18):
Well said, Yeah, but even even if this spring weren't
as volatile or as active, and it was maybe a
notch lower, this would be pretty typical. Acknowledging today and
Tuesday and other days have not been typical. Just that
if they were brought down a bit, you know, you
know that's normal. You know, spring has ups and downs.
It is the teenager of the seasons.
Speaker 1 (21:40):
Very Moody, thanks for joining us, Chris.
Speaker 2 (21:42):
Thanks for having me.
Speaker 1 (21:46):
That's it for this episode of the Front Page. You
can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage
at ends a Herald, dot co, dot enz. The Front
Page is produced by Jane Ye and Richard Martin, who
also our editor. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to the Front
Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts, and
(22:08):
tune in on Monday for another look behind the headlines,
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