December 9, 2025 • 17 mins
Kiwis are flying the coop, most of them heading for better opportunities across the Tasman.
Latest Stats NZ figures show just over 124,000 migrant departures in the year to October, up nearly 7% - 71,000 of them New Zealanders.
What is pushing our best and brightest out the door? And is the grass really greener on the other side?
Today on The Front Page, NZ Herald Business editor at large Liam Dann is with us to dissect what draws Kiwis abroad, and what it all means for the ones sticking around.
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You can read more about this and other stories in the New Zealand Herald, online at nzherald.co.nz, or tune in to news bulletins across the NZME network.
Host: Chelsea Daniels
Editor/Producer: Richard Martin
Producer: Jane Yee
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
Kyoda.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a
daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. Kiwis are
flying the coop, most of them heading for better opportunities
across the Tasman. Latest stats and Z figures show just
over one hundred and twenty four thousand migrant departures in
(00:29):
the year to October, up nearly seven percent, seventy one
thousand of them New Zealanders. What is pushing our best
and brightest out the door and is the grass really
greener on the other side Today on the Front Page
ends at Herald Business Editor at Large Liam dan Is
with us to dissect what draws Kiwi's abroad and what
(00:51):
it all means for the ones sticking around. First off, Liam,
tell me about these stats and Z figures.
Speaker 3 (01:01):
Yeah, so we've just had the last lot of migration
data that will get for the year and that takes
us up to the end of October, and they're still showing,
you know, quite historically high levels of departures of Kiwis
and other nationalities leaving long term and lower numbers arriving.
Speaker 4 (01:20):
But the monthly change.
Speaker 3 (01:21):
Does suggest that the worst of the brain drain is
behind us, so we're seeing that that net migration figure
up slightly. So eleven thousand, three hundred was the net
migration number that the sort of excess population gain through
to the end of October, and that's yeah, that's better
(01:42):
than it was. We'd been down to around nine thousand
and something at one point. But all of this is
you know, historically very low considering you know, in those
big years post COVID, we were seeing like.
Speaker 4 (01:56):
Migration gains above.
Speaker 3 (01:57):
One hundred thousand I think we had one hundred thirty
six or something like that net migration at one point,
which was a record boom. Obviously we've gone from boom
to bust, but hopefully it's some signs there that that's
starting to correct.
Speaker 2 (02:11):
And so what's the poll for Kiwi's overseas? Where are
they heading?
Speaker 3 (02:16):
Well, we don't get immediately get up to date numbers
around departures to Australia specifically, but we do know that
like somewhere around half to sixty percent of all the
migration out of New Zealand is towards Australia traditionally, so
I would say Australia is where people are headed. We've
seen numbers this year, suggesting that higher levels of younger
(02:37):
people are going to Australia. And the big push or
pull in either direction for migration is very much the economy,
very much the job market, the labor market. So you know,
if job prospects and wages are significantly better in Australia,
then you'll see that flow increase. I mean, you know,
historically it's tended to look a bit better in Australia. Yeah,
(03:00):
most of the time, but you know when that becomes exaggerated.
And in New Zealand, the job market has been really tough.
They haven't had the kind of short, sharp economic shock
that we've had in New Zealand, so they haven't you know,
and then there's some reasons for that, their interest rates
and the way that the Reserve Bank has done things
there has been to take a more you know, casual
(03:23):
pace or a more relaxed attitude to inflation. You know,
we've hit it pretty hard in New Zealand, and obviously
everybody knows we've had a pretty rough two maybe three
years compared to Australia.
Speaker 2 (03:36):
And when it comes to the numbers and the ages
of people that are moving overseas as well, we've got that,
you know, eighteen to thirty year old bracket. That's generally
are we crowd, you know, going to London or going
to Australia for better opportunities, greener pastures. But what I've
found this year especially, and correct me if I'm wrong,
(03:57):
is that there are older people migrating overseass. Well does
that kind of give us a glimpse into how bad
the job market is here?
Speaker 4 (04:04):
Yeah? I think that very much. Is the job market stuff.
So yeah, you're right.
Speaker 3 (04:08):
The younger people, well, you can say, you know, they
are cooped up. A lot of people were cooped up
through COVID. There was a bounce after COVID. Younger Kiwis
have always headed offshore to Australia, to the UK and
now increasingly if they can get the right visas for
the US and Japan and Southeast Asia. So you know,
(04:28):
I wouldn't be too worried about that. Hopefully they're going
to come back. I'm on that boat. My daughter's off
to Melbourne in February, you.
Speaker 2 (04:35):
Know, oh yeah, flying the court to live.
Speaker 4 (04:37):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (04:38):
But you know when older people who have established lives,
maybe have own property and all that sort of stuff,
that is a big effort to move countries, and I
don't think you do that unless you're feeling like the
opportunity is really lacking in your home country. I mean,
that's what we see drive immigration arrivals from some countries
into New Zealand, and unfortunately, I think that has been
(05:02):
the case. Is you know, we we've really the sentiment
in the New Zealand economy has been really bad for
the past couple of years. You know, we thought we
were having the bad year in twenty twenty four and
we're all going to survive till twenty twenty five, and
then really twenty twenty five has sort of been a
repeat of that. There are signs, and you know I
always touch wood and everything, but you know, there's there's
(05:25):
a lot of confidence that we are moving into a
real recovery. Now, however strong that turns out to be,
because you know, there's not it's not expected to be
a boom, but any improvement over what we've been through.
If we start to see the labor market turn around
in the next year ahead, then we will probably see
those migration figures continue to improve into a net gain
(05:47):
for New Zealand.
Speaker 2 (05:48):
Right, so those migration figures really do go hand in
hand with the unemployment figures.
Speaker 3 (05:52):
Hey yeah, absolutely, and the it's job opportunity and so
in some ways it's not just the unemployment, it's the employment,
which is job creation and obviously wages. I mean, you know,
if you've got a high cost of living and inflation,
then higher wages are going to be appealing. But when
(06:13):
you look at Australia and New Zealand, now Australia has
actually got higher inflation than New Zealand. They're up at
three point eight percent inflation. They haven't cut their interest
rates the way we have here because of that, and
so there are some cost of living issues, you know,
being debated pretty intensely in Australia, and so as well
as the hope that New Zealand's economy sort of improves
(06:35):
in the next year, there is the possibility that life
just isn't as easy or as great as it's cracked
up to be in Australia and the kind of economy
that they're going to have in the next couple of years,
especially once you move from you know, like I mentioned
my daughter, if you're going to Melbourne to live somewhere
in the inner city, in a flat and work in
hospitality and all that cool stuff. That's quite fun not
(06:58):
and you're very mobile. But when you talk about moving
the family and having to have a mortgage and and
really that full adult life, that's you know, a different story,
and you start to weigh the economic differential a lot
more carefully.
Speaker 2 (07:14):
At that point, I think, yeah, so the grass may
seem greener on the other side, because I mean I
only know this because my parents ask me every time
I have with them what petrol with petrol prices are
and then they, you know, come back with me and
shock or about how expensive it is in New Zealand.
Dad always asks me, what's what's the price per kilo
(07:36):
for chicken lamb chops?
Speaker 4 (07:38):
There we worry about.
Speaker 3 (07:39):
We worry about the you know, things like the supermarket
prices and petrol and that sort of stuff.
Speaker 4 (07:45):
But I think, you know, if you are.
Speaker 3 (07:48):
Trying to buy a house in a in a sort
of in a suburb of Sydney or Melbourne, you know,
that's where you're suddenly blown out of the water in
terms of even even with a better, better wage, probably
in a basic job. So there are some things, I mean,
you know, there are parts of Australia probably where it's
still really appealing, but they are booming. So you know,
you've got Western Australia in Perth Adelaide obviously, and probably
(08:10):
still the parts of Queensland where kiwis are finding it
really good. There's still the government still probably well always
has more money than New Zealand's government, so it's able
to entice people with the kind of skills they need,
like nurses and police and all that.
Speaker 4 (08:26):
Sort of stuff.
Speaker 3 (08:27):
So that's a but that is a constant historical drag
on New Zealand's younger population. So I doubt we're ever
going to see it, you know, completely go away. But
it's just at the kind of worrying levels we've seen
in the past year where it sort of felt like
we're losing an outsize number of people and that could
have an impact on our skills and our labor market.
(08:51):
You know, in the coming year or two, as our
market actually improves and we businesses start looking for workers again,
you know, will we have the skills in New Zealand,
we could suddenly go from you know, from that sort
of rising unemployment and a sort of a labor market
that's really weak to being at capacity again and that
(09:14):
drives inflation.
Speaker 1 (09:21):
In recessionary times, as we've seen on our past, people
will make choices to go to places where they perceive
there's more opportunity, and then when there's a job of
our government is to create the conditions that they can
see a future here and that we can do that.
But we've got some work to do to me well,
i mean, when do you.
Speaker 2 (09:37):
Think this country will be good enough for them to return?
Speaker 1 (09:40):
Well, I mean we're doing everything. You can't say a date,
but what you can do is make sure everything you're
doing every day is about doing the things that if
I honestly believe, if we grow the economy, if we
restore or in order to deliver world class education, better healthcare,
that is the reason white people stay here.
Speaker 2 (09:57):
So governments from Muldoon to lux And have always quipt
about raising the IQ of both countries when it comes
to Kiwi's going to Australia. But on this side of
the Tasman, what kind of retention policies or super or
tax tweaks or something do you think would actually stem
this tide?
Speaker 3 (10:16):
Yeah, I mean, look, the bottom line is it's getting
wages up, and of course it's got to be getting
wages up without just artificially inflating them. I mean, New
Zealand's done some work around the minimum wage under the
last labor government, which probably makes the entry level jobs
more appealing here, but probably also has meant that there's
(10:37):
been some sort of inflationary pressure. So these are the
productivity challenges to make your economy more efficient and create
wealth progress towards more wealthy economy In real terms. Both
New Zealand and Australia actually have very similar issues with
that right at the moment. So while the top level
in Australia is sort of frothier and there's more money,
(11:00):
it's a bigger country, it's got bigger financial markets and
all these things going for it, not to mention the
you know, the huge amount of super superanuation money and
all that sort of stuff underlying it. Their treasury is
saying the same things to their government that our treasury
is saying, which is that the economy is not sort
(11:20):
of structured well enough to go through a big economic
boom without hitting capacity constraints. And that just is what
economists say when they mean, you know, a speed limit
to the economy. The point at which the economy can't
grow any faster without becoming inflationary and interest rates having
to go up. So you know, Australia, because it's kept growing,
(11:42):
is very near that at the moment you're seeing, you know,
as I mentioned, higher inflation and the Reserve Bank.
Speaker 4 (11:48):
They're talking about people talking.
Speaker 3 (11:51):
About the Reserve Bank of Australia having to put rates
up the next move they've held them for the past
few decisions, and maybe putting them up much sooner than
new Zen.
Speaker 2 (12:00):
You've covered brain drains before. It's kind of like a
buzz term hanging whenever there's a lot of kiwis going overseas,
not even just to Australia but Europe and like you said,
the US as well. Compared to the two thousands peaks.
What's different this time, do you think?
Speaker 4 (12:20):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (12:20):
I mean, in some ways, it's not necessarily that different.
It's always there is always a cycle, and there's a
cyclical element to it. It's just I think this one
is we've gone from a record high to not quite
record lows because we've been into the negative net migration before,
but down to historic lows below the historic average very quickly.
(12:45):
So for the rest of you know, for the wider
economy to be running with you know, like population gains
every year of around one hundred thousand to suddenly only
getting about ten thousand a year. That has a huge
impact on, you know, the way that businesses have to
gear themselves for an economy. So construction, car sales, you know,
(13:09):
retail to some extent, the housing market are underpinned by
population growth, or get used to being underpinned by population
growth and quite large population growth traditionally, and suddenly that's
not there. That's what the economists will call ahead wind.
So that's another reason that the downturn in New Zealand
(13:30):
may have been a bit worse than expected. It's kind
of a chicken and egg what comes first, because, as
I say, the bad job market, people leave, but then
as they leave, there's a few people spending money and
that contributes. So you've got to break that cycle. And yeah,
I think you know, a lot of that is sentiment
and confidence and how people feel about the country they're
(13:51):
living in. So that's the challenge for the government. That's
Chris Luxen's mojo line, you know, getting mojo back into
New Zealand so people feel better. Young people feel like
this country has got opportunity and presents them with a
sort of viable future, and maybe we're just starting to
see some signs. Certainly there's a bit of a down
(14:12):
so long it looks like up vibe to it, because
you know, it's not like we're everybody's suddenly over the
moon confident, but people aren't as gloomy as they were, say,
six months ago in this country and that's looking promising.
Speaker 2 (14:26):
Yeah, from all of the columns you've written and the
people that you've spoken to and the conversations that you've
had with experts and things like that, do you have
kind of I mean, if you were to think about it,
what are the first two or three things that quickly
come to mind that you would say to a young
person to try and change their mind, or would you
even I.
Speaker 4 (14:45):
Haven't well, you know, I've mentioned my daughter.
Speaker 3 (14:47):
I haven't tried to change your mind, because I think
that is I think it's a great thing on many
levels that Kiwis go out to the world, because we
can get a bit insular in New Zealand and we
and so you know, and in my case, you know,
working and living in London, you know, changed my perspective
on the world. You bring back a lot of extra
(15:07):
experience and knowledge, and I think that's important for New Zealand.
It's just just a case of keeping it in balance.
I would certainly reiterate to people longer term in terms
of building a life here, that New Zealand is really
well placed in the world if we can get a
few things structurally fixed up in our economy to be
(15:29):
one of the greatest and I think is one of
the greatest places to live in the world. Still, there
are some structural and balances in the economy that mean
that we've been struggling to grow at a decent pace.
There'll always be cyclical ups and downs.
Speaker 4 (15:41):
I mean, we.
Speaker 3 (15:43):
Grow grass and produce meat and dairy and that goes
out to the world and those prices go up and down.
New Zealand has sort of buffeted along by the global
economy and fuels those ups and downs quite strongly because
we're a small, open economy. But you know, in terms
of lifestyle and opportunity, I think I think it's still
(16:05):
there and will certainly come back. I think there's plenty
of potential that you've only.
Speaker 4 (16:09):
Got to look at.
Speaker 3 (16:09):
How you know, ratings agencies look at New Zealand how
international commentators and economists like some of the most upbeat
economists about New Zealand. I talk to the Australian economists,
they look at us and go, what are you complaining about?
I mean, that's that's the vibe I get them from them.
Speaker 2 (16:25):
Yeah, thanks for joining us, Liam Jeers, Chelsea. That set
for this episode of the Front Page. You can read
more about today's stories and extensive news coverage at enzadherld
dot co dot nz. The Front Page is produced by
Jane Ye and Richard Martin, who is also our editor.
(16:47):
I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to The Front Page on iHeartRadio
or wherever you get your podcasts, and tune in tomorrow
for another look behind the headlines.
Kyoda.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a
daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. Kiwis are
flying the coop, most of them heading for better opportunities
across the Tasman. Latest stats and Z figures show just
over one hundred and twenty four thousand migrant departures in
(00:29):
the year to October, up nearly seven percent, seventy one
thousand of them New Zealanders. What is pushing our best
and brightest out the door and is the grass really
greener on the other side Today on the Front Page
ends at Herald Business Editor at Large Liam dan Is
with us to dissect what draws Kiwi's abroad and what
(00:51):
it all means for the ones sticking around. First off, Liam,
tell me about these stats and Z figures.
Speaker 3 (01:01):
Yeah, so we've just had the last lot of migration
data that will get for the year and that takes
us up to the end of October, and they're still showing,
you know, quite historically high levels of departures of Kiwis
and other nationalities leaving long term and lower numbers arriving.
Speaker 4 (01:20):
But the monthly change.
Speaker 3 (01:21):
Does suggest that the worst of the brain drain is
behind us, so we're seeing that that net migration figure
up slightly. So eleven thousand, three hundred was the net
migration number that the sort of excess population gain through
to the end of October, and that's yeah, that's better
(01:42):
than it was. We'd been down to around nine thousand
and something at one point. But all of this is
you know, historically very low considering you know, in those
big years post COVID, we were seeing like.
Speaker 4 (01:56):
Migration gains above.
Speaker 3 (01:57):
One hundred thousand I think we had one hundred thirty
six or something like that net migration at one point,
which was a record boom. Obviously we've gone from boom
to bust, but hopefully it's some signs there that that's
starting to correct.
Speaker 2 (02:11):
And so what's the poll for Kiwi's overseas? Where are
they heading?
Speaker 3 (02:16):
Well, we don't get immediately get up to date numbers
around departures to Australia specifically, but we do know that
like somewhere around half to sixty percent of all the
migration out of New Zealand is towards Australia traditionally, so
I would say Australia is where people are headed. We've
seen numbers this year, suggesting that higher levels of younger
(02:37):
people are going to Australia. And the big push or
pull in either direction for migration is very much the economy,
very much the job market, the labor market. So you know,
if job prospects and wages are significantly better in Australia,
then you'll see that flow increase. I mean, you know,
historically it's tended to look a bit better in Australia. Yeah,
(03:00):
most of the time, but you know when that becomes exaggerated.
And in New Zealand, the job market has been really tough.
They haven't had the kind of short, sharp economic shock
that we've had in New Zealand, so they haven't you know,
and then there's some reasons for that, their interest rates
and the way that the Reserve Bank has done things
there has been to take a more you know, casual
(03:23):
pace or a more relaxed attitude to inflation. You know,
we've hit it pretty hard in New Zealand, and obviously
everybody knows we've had a pretty rough two maybe three
years compared to Australia.
Speaker 2 (03:36):
And when it comes to the numbers and the ages
of people that are moving overseas as well, we've got that,
you know, eighteen to thirty year old bracket. That's generally
are we crowd, you know, going to London or going
to Australia for better opportunities, greener pastures. But what I've
found this year especially, and correct me if I'm wrong,
(03:57):
is that there are older people migrating overseass. Well does
that kind of give us a glimpse into how bad
the job market is here?
Speaker 4 (04:04):
Yeah? I think that very much. Is the job market stuff.
So yeah, you're right.
Speaker 3 (04:08):
The younger people, well, you can say, you know, they
are cooped up. A lot of people were cooped up
through COVID. There was a bounce after COVID. Younger Kiwis
have always headed offshore to Australia, to the UK and
now increasingly if they can get the right visas for
the US and Japan and Southeast Asia. So you know,
(04:28):
I wouldn't be too worried about that. Hopefully they're going
to come back. I'm on that boat. My daughter's off
to Melbourne in February, you.
Speaker 2 (04:35):
Know, oh yeah, flying the court to live.
Speaker 4 (04:37):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (04:38):
But you know when older people who have established lives,
maybe have own property and all that sort of stuff,
that is a big effort to move countries, and I
don't think you do that unless you're feeling like the
opportunity is really lacking in your home country. I mean,
that's what we see drive immigration arrivals from some countries
into New Zealand, and unfortunately, I think that has been
(05:02):
the case. Is you know, we we've really the sentiment
in the New Zealand economy has been really bad for
the past couple of years. You know, we thought we
were having the bad year in twenty twenty four and
we're all going to survive till twenty twenty five, and
then really twenty twenty five has sort of been a
repeat of that. There are signs, and you know I
always touch wood and everything, but you know, there's there's
(05:25):
a lot of confidence that we are moving into a
real recovery. Now, however strong that turns out to be,
because you know, there's not it's not expected to be
a boom, but any improvement over what we've been through.
If we start to see the labor market turn around
in the next year ahead, then we will probably see
those migration figures continue to improve into a net gain
(05:47):
for New Zealand.
Speaker 2 (05:48):
Right, so those migration figures really do go hand in
hand with the unemployment figures.
Speaker 3 (05:52):
Hey yeah, absolutely, and the it's job opportunity and so
in some ways it's not just the unemployment, it's the employment,
which is job creation and obviously wages. I mean, you know,
if you've got a high cost of living and inflation,
then higher wages are going to be appealing. But when
(06:13):
you look at Australia and New Zealand, now Australia has
actually got higher inflation than New Zealand. They're up at
three point eight percent inflation. They haven't cut their interest
rates the way we have here because of that, and
so there are some cost of living issues, you know,
being debated pretty intensely in Australia, and so as well
as the hope that New Zealand's economy sort of improves
(06:35):
in the next year, there is the possibility that life
just isn't as easy or as great as it's cracked
up to be in Australia and the kind of economy
that they're going to have in the next couple of years,
especially once you move from you know, like I mentioned
my daughter, if you're going to Melbourne to live somewhere
in the inner city, in a flat and work in
hospitality and all that cool stuff. That's quite fun not
(06:58):
and you're very mobile. But when you talk about moving
the family and having to have a mortgage and and
really that full adult life, that's you know, a different story,
and you start to weigh the economic differential a lot
more carefully.
Speaker 2 (07:14):
At that point, I think, yeah, so the grass may
seem greener on the other side, because I mean I
only know this because my parents ask me every time
I have with them what petrol with petrol prices are
and then they, you know, come back with me and
shock or about how expensive it is in New Zealand.
Dad always asks me, what's what's the price per kilo
(07:36):
for chicken lamb chops?
Speaker 4 (07:38):
There we worry about.
Speaker 3 (07:39):
We worry about the you know, things like the supermarket
prices and petrol and that sort of stuff.
Speaker 4 (07:45):
But I think, you know, if you are.
Speaker 3 (07:48):
Trying to buy a house in a in a sort
of in a suburb of Sydney or Melbourne, you know,
that's where you're suddenly blown out of the water in
terms of even even with a better, better wage, probably
in a basic job. So there are some things, I mean,
you know, there are parts of Australia probably where it's
still really appealing, but they are booming. So you know,
you've got Western Australia in Perth Adelaide obviously, and probably
(08:10):
still the parts of Queensland where kiwis are finding it
really good. There's still the government still probably well always
has more money than New Zealand's government, so it's able
to entice people with the kind of skills they need,
like nurses and police and all that.
Speaker 4 (08:26):
Sort of stuff.
Speaker 3 (08:27):
So that's a but that is a constant historical drag
on New Zealand's younger population. So I doubt we're ever
going to see it, you know, completely go away. But
it's just at the kind of worrying levels we've seen
in the past year where it sort of felt like
we're losing an outsize number of people and that could
have an impact on our skills and our labor market.
(08:51):
You know, in the coming year or two, as our
market actually improves and we businesses start looking for workers again,
you know, will we have the skills in New Zealand,
we could suddenly go from you know, from that sort
of rising unemployment and a sort of a labor market
that's really weak to being at capacity again and that
(09:14):
drives inflation.
Speaker 1 (09:21):
In recessionary times, as we've seen on our past, people
will make choices to go to places where they perceive
there's more opportunity, and then when there's a job of
our government is to create the conditions that they can
see a future here and that we can do that.
But we've got some work to do to me well,
i mean, when do you.
Speaker 2 (09:37):
Think this country will be good enough for them to return?
Speaker 1 (09:40):
Well, I mean we're doing everything. You can't say a date,
but what you can do is make sure everything you're
doing every day is about doing the things that if
I honestly believe, if we grow the economy, if we
restore or in order to deliver world class education, better healthcare,
that is the reason white people stay here.
Speaker 2 (09:57):
So governments from Muldoon to lux And have always quipt
about raising the IQ of both countries when it comes
to Kiwi's going to Australia. But on this side of
the Tasman, what kind of retention policies or super or
tax tweaks or something do you think would actually stem
this tide?
Speaker 3 (10:16):
Yeah, I mean, look, the bottom line is it's getting
wages up, and of course it's got to be getting
wages up without just artificially inflating them. I mean, New
Zealand's done some work around the minimum wage under the
last labor government, which probably makes the entry level jobs
more appealing here, but probably also has meant that there's
(10:37):
been some sort of inflationary pressure. So these are the
productivity challenges to make your economy more efficient and create
wealth progress towards more wealthy economy In real terms. Both
New Zealand and Australia actually have very similar issues with
that right at the moment. So while the top level
in Australia is sort of frothier and there's more money,
(11:00):
it's a bigger country, it's got bigger financial markets and
all these things going for it, not to mention the
you know, the huge amount of super superanuation money and
all that sort of stuff underlying it. Their treasury is
saying the same things to their government that our treasury
is saying, which is that the economy is not sort
(11:20):
of structured well enough to go through a big economic
boom without hitting capacity constraints. And that just is what
economists say when they mean, you know, a speed limit
to the economy. The point at which the economy can't
grow any faster without becoming inflationary and interest rates having
to go up. So you know, Australia, because it's kept growing,
(11:42):
is very near that at the moment you're seeing, you know,
as I mentioned, higher inflation and the Reserve Bank.
Speaker 4 (11:48):
They're talking about people talking.
Speaker 3 (11:51):
About the Reserve Bank of Australia having to put rates
up the next move they've held them for the past
few decisions, and maybe putting them up much sooner than
new Zen.
Speaker 2 (12:00):
You've covered brain drains before. It's kind of like a
buzz term hanging whenever there's a lot of kiwis going overseas,
not even just to Australia but Europe and like you said,
the US as well. Compared to the two thousands peaks.
What's different this time, do you think?
Speaker 4 (12:20):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (12:20):
I mean, in some ways, it's not necessarily that different.
It's always there is always a cycle, and there's a
cyclical element to it. It's just I think this one
is we've gone from a record high to not quite
record lows because we've been into the negative net migration before,
but down to historic lows below the historic average very quickly.
(12:45):
So for the rest of you know, for the wider
economy to be running with you know, like population gains
every year of around one hundred thousand to suddenly only
getting about ten thousand a year. That has a huge
impact on, you know, the way that businesses have to
gear themselves for an economy. So construction, car sales, you know,
(13:09):
retail to some extent, the housing market are underpinned by
population growth, or get used to being underpinned by population
growth and quite large population growth traditionally, and suddenly that's
not there. That's what the economists will call ahead wind.
So that's another reason that the downturn in New Zealand
(13:30):
may have been a bit worse than expected. It's kind
of a chicken and egg what comes first, because, as
I say, the bad job market, people leave, but then
as they leave, there's a few people spending money and
that contributes. So you've got to break that cycle. And yeah,
I think you know, a lot of that is sentiment
and confidence and how people feel about the country they're
(13:51):
living in. So that's the challenge for the government. That's
Chris Luxen's mojo line, you know, getting mojo back into
New Zealand so people feel better. Young people feel like
this country has got opportunity and presents them with a
sort of viable future, and maybe we're just starting to
see some signs. Certainly there's a bit of a down
(14:12):
so long it looks like up vibe to it, because
you know, it's not like we're everybody's suddenly over the
moon confident, but people aren't as gloomy as they were, say,
six months ago in this country and that's looking promising.
Speaker 2 (14:26):
Yeah, from all of the columns you've written and the
people that you've spoken to and the conversations that you've
had with experts and things like that, do you have
kind of I mean, if you were to think about it,
what are the first two or three things that quickly
come to mind that you would say to a young
person to try and change their mind, or would you
even I.
Speaker 4 (14:45):
Haven't well, you know, I've mentioned my daughter.
Speaker 3 (14:47):
I haven't tried to change your mind, because I think
that is I think it's a great thing on many
levels that Kiwis go out to the world, because we
can get a bit insular in New Zealand and we
and so you know, and in my case, you know,
working and living in London, you know, changed my perspective
on the world. You bring back a lot of extra
(15:07):
experience and knowledge, and I think that's important for New Zealand.
It's just just a case of keeping it in balance.
I would certainly reiterate to people longer term in terms
of building a life here, that New Zealand is really
well placed in the world if we can get a
few things structurally fixed up in our economy to be
(15:29):
one of the greatest and I think is one of
the greatest places to live in the world. Still, there
are some structural and balances in the economy that mean
that we've been struggling to grow at a decent pace.
There'll always be cyclical ups and downs.
Speaker 4 (15:41):
I mean, we.
Speaker 3 (15:43):
Grow grass and produce meat and dairy and that goes
out to the world and those prices go up and down.
New Zealand has sort of buffeted along by the global
economy and fuels those ups and downs quite strongly because
we're a small, open economy. But you know, in terms
of lifestyle and opportunity, I think I think it's still
(16:05):
there and will certainly come back. I think there's plenty
of potential that you've only.
Speaker 4 (16:09):
Got to look at.
Speaker 3 (16:09):
How you know, ratings agencies look at New Zealand how
international commentators and economists like some of the most upbeat
economists about New Zealand. I talk to the Australian economists,
they look at us and go, what are you complaining about?
I mean, that's that's the vibe I get them from them.
Speaker 2 (16:25):
Yeah, thanks for joining us, Liam Jeers, Chelsea. That set
for this episode of the Front Page. You can read
more about today's stories and extensive news coverage at enzadherld
dot co dot nz. The Front Page is produced by
Jane Ye and Richard Martin, who is also our editor.
(16:47):
I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to The Front Page on iHeartRadio
or wherever you get your podcasts, and tune in tomorrow
for another look behind the headlines.
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