Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
Kiota.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a
daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald. From the
streets of New York to around the world, the Mamdani
Effect is taking shape. Democratic socialist Zorn Mumdani won the
(00:26):
city's mayoralty earlier this month, sparking a new era when
an election turnout higher than any race in the last
fifty years. But this isn't just an American story. The
energy around this movement, It's bold ideas on justice, economics
and climate change is resonating with jen Z far beyond
(00:48):
the US. So what exactly is the Mamdani effect and
what does it tell us about the future of politics today?
On the Front Page, Victoria University of Wellington se lecturer
doctor Mona Quiel is with us to discuss how this
kind of politics could redefine the power and purpose of
the next generation of leaders. So, Minor, when people talk
(01:16):
about the Mamdani effect, what do you reckon that actually means?
Speaker 3 (01:20):
Yeah, So over all, I would say it's mostly like
a buzzword that has made the rounds. In the context
of the election, when Mandami was elected mayor of New York,
so it's actually more term that like journalists have coined
to describe the excitement around the Mandami election, then it's
actually a phenomena or an academic term. So he's a
(01:41):
member of the Democratic Party, he's identifying as a socialist,
he's young, and he is Muslim, and so this is
the opposite of the reactionary republican Trump politician type that
the US has recently mostly seen. So he's also the
opposite of the moderate oldies that the Democratic Party has
presented in the decades, such as Joe Biden. So that
(02:02):
someone like him could still get elected was actually a symbol,
i would say, of hope for all those who are
more progressive in the country. And so it got coined
at as the Mandami effect because it showed that politics
or the politics that he stands for, that those are
still successfully drawing voters. And so more than it being
(02:23):
an actual effect, it tells you something also about the
journalists in the US who came up with that term
and their hopes for the country and for themselves. Because
the media is under a lot of pressure in the
USA from the Trump administration at the moment, and the
freedom of present independent media coverage is actually at stake,
So for journalists, they had high hopes for him, and
(02:44):
so I think this was one of the reasons why
they took quickly came up with that term, the Mandami effect,
and they hoped it would be kind of a trend,
and of course it's very catchy. So the Mandami effect
as a headline gets you more clicks than thirty four
year old socialists and Muslim elected mayor of New York.
So the fact that he was an unlikely candidate with
(03:06):
unlikely politics and then he that he can get elected
already has a lot of news value per se. But
when it coincidence with the fact and the hope of
many journalists who are also more on the left side,
leaving Vox News aside, then basically media hype is born,
and of course that quickly gets named. So in other words,
(03:26):
I would say the Mandami effect tells you at least
as much about journalists in the US who are currently
under pressure as it tells you about voters preferences.
Speaker 2 (03:35):
And what kind of issues did he run on that
were seen so out of left field?
Speaker 3 (03:41):
Yeah, so I think his branding was kind of different
from what we currently see in US politics. So He's
the opposite of the reactionary Trump politics of this administration
and the Republicans. So for many that actually makes him
like a hero who kind of can turn the Handmaid's
Tales story around. His platform send us a lot around
(04:01):
equity and affordability, and that includes things like rand control
or raising the minimum age. So literally opposite of what
the Trump administration stands for, and so it's also the
opposite of the so called He's also, I think the
opposite of the so called Washington elite, and he effectively
uses this in a sense that surely makes him a
(04:22):
little bit more left wing populist, and left wing populism
is more known for redistributional politics, and so that stands
out in the USA at the moment because it's different
from the right wing populism that they have seen in
recent years.
Speaker 2 (04:38):
I quite liked this line from a New Yorker pace
that I read is written by a journalist there named
Eric Locke. I'll read it out to here. Mam Dani
offered his supporters an unsullied message of hope. He emphasized
the similarities between Trump, Como and Adams all figures forward
in the New York Political scene of the past century,
(04:59):
trapped in a psychodrama where nineteen eighty three never ended.
And I think that that expression gives a really good
US versus them mentality, And like you said that that
kind of Washington elite per se, and especially in New
York as well. You can imagine nineteen eighty three. You've
got Trump Tower, you've got Golden toilets, you've got Wall Street,
(05:23):
you know, and it gives you those kind of a
real picture of what he was kind of fighting against.
And people resonated with that, really, didn't they.
Speaker 3 (05:33):
Yeah, absolutely, So I do think this is very well captured,
like the laughing populism, he stands for setting himself aside
from this elite, and that's actually what popularism is about.
So the dichotomy of us the people against the elite,
and even like included like other candidates like in that
(05:54):
and yeah, you have I think very well described how
he is different from those elites and the Golden Towers.
So I did live in upstate New York for a
long time so and spend all of my weekends in
New York, so I can relate to what you are
describing or what the line in that article has been describing,
and I mean like it really resonated with people, and
(06:15):
probably particularly also with like Gen Z voters, who stand
like for it's a different generation, different from previous generation
in many important ways. So they are more racially and
ethnically diverse than any previous generation. So I think they're
even like projected in by twenty twenty six to become
(06:38):
a majority non white generation. And so basically they are
also on track to be the most well educated generation
ever and so highly educated people and also very much
support redistributional politics more than people with like lower education,
and of course this has like better chance to resonate
(07:01):
with people and that generation then it has like probably
had previous generations, and so in New Yorkers are also
known as much more progressive than the rest of the country.
So I think it is still an open question if
this would have been flying with the rest of the
country or nationwide. I know some people were quick to
(07:21):
say this is a nationwide movement, but I think urban
voters are in general more progressive than rural voters in
New York are also known to be very progressive, and
given that it's a very polarized country, I have some
doubts that he could have gotten elected elsewhere in the US.
And we are also still talking about the same country
(07:41):
who in twenty to sixteen and twenty twenty four was
not ready yet to elect a female president. So one
progressive mayor does not fully turn that around overnight. And
the electorate is also not made of of gen zs
and urban population alone, but surely his like platform of
equity and affordability he resonated a lot with urban voters,
(08:02):
progressive voters, and in particular I think gen.
Speaker 4 (08:05):
Zs together we will usher in a generation of change.
And if we embrace this brave new course, rather than
fleeing from it, we can respond to oligarchy and authoritarianism
with the strength it fears, not the appeasement it craves.
(08:31):
After all, if anyone can show a nation betrayed by
Donald Trump how to defeat him, it is the city
that gave rise to him. And if there is any
way to terrify a despot, it is by dismantling the
very conditions that allowed him to accumulate power. This is
(08:57):
not only how we stopped Trump, it's how we stop
the next one. So, Donald Trump, since I know you're watching,
I have four words for you turn the volume up.
Speaker 2 (09:23):
And I suppose that Generation Z or gen Z are
often described as values driven and patient for that systemic change.
How might Mamdani's leadership and this display of this kind
of Mamdani effect, I suppose, resonate with or I suppose
even reshape their expectations of political leaders Yeah.
Speaker 3 (09:44):
So, as I said, we do know they have high education.
So we have the highest I think level of like
college educated voters ever in the gen Z generation, and
so that means more support for read rescript politics. It
also means, so a lot of surveys have found about
(10:04):
gen zs in the US that they are more pro governments.
So that means they do not have this typical like
help your self attitude, and that has been embraced in
the US for a long time. And so even Gen
Z Republicans differ from older Republicans in their attitudes, and
they are, for example, much more acknowledging racial inequalities. They
(10:27):
are also less likely than older generations to see the
USA as superior over other countries. And so in this sense,
I think Mandami's politics surely have resonated with them. They
are also digital natives, and so if you think of
a generation that has no or just probably the earlier
ones little memory of an area before the smartphone, and
(10:48):
so they can very well approach through social media, which
was a cornerstone of his campaign. So whenever ask so, yeah, so,
I think when asked about political issues, they do not
differ that much from millennials. So I wouldn't expect a
huge revolution with all of them becoming eligible to vote.
But surely a candidate like Mandani has like a much
(11:10):
better chance to resonate with them than like older candidates
like Joe Biden, for example.
Speaker 2 (11:16):
Could his style of politics become a template for young
politicians globally? Do you think? And I'm thinking of New
Zealand election next year as well.
Speaker 3 (11:26):
Yeah, so, I actually do think it could particularly be
a template for social democratic and labor parties around the world.
I wouldn't necessarily say just for young politicians, but I
think for that you have to look back a little
bit in time and geographically, because there is something that
since twenty twelve in Europe has been called pacification. So
(11:47):
all of the social democratic parties have lost voters in
like high numbers, and at the same time the far
right was gaining more and more voters. And so for
a long time the media has actually spreading the stock
that the social democratic parties and the labor parties have
lost voters to the far right, and it was particular
the working class who ran away. But if you actually
(12:08):
do look into the data of the European election studies,
and we do have a lot of data on that,
you see that the young voters and highly educated ran
away to the green parties. They think like Green is
the new rat or is the better left party, whereas
the far right actually gained its voters from the non
voter bloc and the conservative parties. But these phenomena happening
(12:31):
at the same time, and is looking like a scissor
in a graph. A lot of people thought these phenomena
were related. Not so much the case. So why did
the young voters run away to the green parties Because
they embraced climate change and politics sustainability, education that matters
for them, making education for free in a lot of countries,
(12:52):
and LGBTQ pluss rights a lot earlier and more like
believable than the social democratic parties did, who were late
adopters of these things. And so meanwhile, the best predictor
for voting for the center left in Europe is age,
which means that these parties are dying like a dinosaur.
And so I would actually recommend to LEF parties around
(13:12):
the world, if they want to win back like young,
highly educated voters, to embrace those left progressive policies more
and not what parts of the European media has been
suggesting to them for a long time, anti immigration policies
and left nationalism, because that will drive those young voters
even further away from them. And so actually it would
(13:33):
be advisable and they could take a page from that,
from that playbook and probably yeah, embrace that trend. I
think actually in New Zealand this might have just been
a little bit delayed what we have been seeing with
social democratic parties in Western Europe, so that they have
(13:56):
not been part of that global decline yet because it
has been brushed over a little bit, like with an
attractive young author like to Sinda Adirn and so, but
also the Labor Party here would be advised to go
more for those progressive policies. I would say. However, the
US is still a highly polarized country and so progressiveness
(14:16):
at least progressiveness at least I think on the national
level must be prescribed to them in like pretty careful doses,
or just sprinkled into a Democratic campaign. So because getting
a Mandami like president elected is proborty, still too much
of a move for this country, But you I could
imagine a moderate presidential candidate with a more progressive, younger
(14:38):
VC choice, maybe so, or at least having people like
Mandami or Alexandra Ocasio Corotest play a bigger role in
the Democratic Party in the future. I think this would
resonate a lot, with the gen Z voters in particular,
more and more of them becoming like voting age.
Speaker 2 (14:54):
A self proclaimed socialist just won the race for New
York City mayor. We hit the streets see how Yorkers
are reacting.
Speaker 5 (15:01):
I was disappointed, he says a lot. He's charismatic, but
so was Castro.
Speaker 6 (15:07):
I was reluctantly thankful because he was just the best
out of three that didn't quite work out.
Speaker 4 (15:13):
I do fear for the future of the Democratic Party
if this is a brand of liberalism that sticks.
Speaker 6 (15:19):
My initial thought, it's embarrassing for thirty four years old
turn probably the most successful city in the world it's
a disgrace for a city that was built by Jewish
immigrants and made it to be the greatest city in
the world.
Speaker 2 (15:31):
It's funny because I was walking, I'd kind of like
to take in the energy of the city, especially after
such a big night.
Speaker 3 (15:37):
I feel like there's a calm energy now, so I
think there's hope.
Speaker 1 (15:42):
And many people are saying this is a major shift
in politics in the city. Do you feel that changed today,
and if so, what fears or hopes do you have?
Speaker 5 (15:50):
First day out calling out Donald Trump, he doesn't know
who he's getting in the ring with. As Tyson once said,
everybody has a plan until you get to do the face,
so will see. I don't think he's going to be
able to change much.
Speaker 3 (16:05):
I'm a little skeptical about how he's going to get
everything done. I think that's what a lot of people are.
Speaker 6 (16:10):
I fear that the Democratic Party would keep losing working
class vords.
Speaker 4 (16:14):
It makes me more cautious.
Speaker 1 (16:15):
I lived in New York most of my life and
it's a very weird future. I'm going to see. He
says he's going to give free buses. Who pays for that?
I do business to pay for that helps nobody. You know,
the policies he's giving is not beneficial for the.
Speaker 2 (16:31):
City, and especially as well you mentioned before social media,
and of course I saw everything. I wasn't even looking
for the Mamdani social media channels and I found them
upon my I think it was hot girls for Mamdani.
Then you had the Africans for Mamdani, Muslims for Mamdani,
(16:53):
all in this really bright colored green. I mean no,
it wasn't green, it was orange and blue, beautifully just played.
I mean, it was just it. There must be parties
around the world studying those Instagram feeds and those TikTok
fades and seeing what they did, because it did speak
(17:13):
to current generations and people entering the voter base.
Speaker 3 (17:19):
Right, Yeah, so absolutely so. I think his social media
complaign played a huge role in his success. Social media
campaigns become more and more important around the world anyway.
But I think he was successful for basically like three reasons.
So first of all, he linked very well his online
content to his offline campaign. So he talked, for example,
(17:39):
to ordinary people on the streets why they voted for
Trump and presented his agenda to them, and then he
put it on TikTok and so offline and online were
very well connected. The second thing, it was believable, so
he was using social media naturally so as people of
his generation do so. With older politicians, it has been
very in the past. So think of Joe Biden joining
(18:02):
with like in his late seventies snapchat and he got
ridiculous by gen Z voters for that. So authenticity matters
a lot on social media. And this is also why
influenzas influenza have such like huge followers following ships. So
for example, Trump is also successful with his audience because
(18:23):
he is authentic, so even his typos in his social
media posts are authentic. And I think the third reason
why his social media campaign was so successful is probably
he embraced this everyday celebrity politician style as it's called
in political communication research. So this is like more trying
(18:45):
to make yourself relatable and very much including influenza style
elements in your campaign. This is in stark contrast to
the super celebrity politician of the past that we have
been seeing in the past, which is more traditional personalization
streatch and portrays politicians more as like extraordinary charismatic leaders.
(19:05):
So most politicians these days already mixed post strategies. We
have seen this from Christopher Luxan in a twenty twenty
three campaign, who tried to balance that out and presented
this traditional super celebrity politician more on Facebook where you
have an older audience, and the everyday celebrity politicians he
saved for his tiktoks with a younger audience. So I
(19:26):
think in like the social media age of campaigning, you
will see this more and more from politicians, and Mandami
is probably surely one of those who's like at the
forefront of this. I would think that is actually like
a really good point that campaign managers do usually watch
trends all over the world, and so campaign contacts differ
(19:50):
between countries, of course, and you cannot always fully copy
campaigns because you cannot transplant them into different campaign contacts
because would be incompatible. But they surely shop and we
have seen this in all campaigns all around the world
from successful examples around the world, and they really study
them and they even go there for exchanges. So also
(20:13):
Marine le Pen's campaign visited his Trump's campaigners and they
have been sitting together in the Trump Tower. There are
pictures of that kind of stuff. So in particular between
like parties of the same ideology, we see them like
exchanging campaign knowledge.
Speaker 2 (20:28):
And I even think with Dana, I don't know that
I'm obsessed with the social media campaign, but even the
font that they chose is very I suppose trendy right now,
right and the color and the boldness of the colors,
and even the campaign imagery. You know, half of them
that I saw it looked like they had been taken
on a two thousands digital camera. That is very trendy
(20:51):
right now, even down to the very you know, the
placement of things is very so I think that it's
it's more than I've no just it, more than I
ever have before, I think with the men Danny one,
and that's why I was so interested in taking aback
with it.
Speaker 3 (21:08):
Yeah, even the corporate design that was it was all
perfect until the last bit, and you could really see
like this was a young group of campaigners handling that
knowing what they're doing in the social media age, because
it always becomes cringe when you put the old campaign
manage on that rather have the intern was twanty something
(21:28):
and a college kid run the social media campaign these days.
Speaker 2 (21:32):
Yeah, one hundred percent because all the money in the
world and this is something else that I've been wanting
to talk about as well, the Bezoses' They've just announced
that they are funding the met Gala, and I think
it's just such a all the all the money in
the world cannot buy you class or call, which I
think is something that that's completely another topic for another day,
(21:56):
So stay tuned. Thank you so much for joining us, Mona, Yeah,
thank you. That's it for this episode of The Front Page.
You can read more about today's stories and extensive news
coverage at enzidherld dot co dot nz. The Front Page
is produced by Jane Yee and Richard Martin, who is
(22:18):
also our editor.
Speaker 3 (22:20):
I'm Chelsea Daniels.
Speaker 2 (22:22):
Subscribe to The Front Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you
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