Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
Kyota.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a
daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald.
Speaker 1 (00:16):
China recently rolled out the red.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
Carpet to some of the world's most controversial leaders in
a massive display of military might. It was all laughs,
hugs and handholding, amongst the likes of Russia's Vladimir Putin,
India's Narendra Modi, North Korea's Kim Jong un, and China's
Xijingping in Beijing. The carefully choreographed summit was designed to
(00:41):
Showcase's vision of a new world order, a challenge to
the West, a reset in global rules. But what does
this very public display of affection actually mean and does
it spell trouble for the Indo Pacific Today on the
front page, Why Kato University into National Law Professor Al
(01:01):
Gillespie is with us to unpack these relationships and what
it could mean for our part of the globe. First off,
our you would have seen China's summit and military parade.
Speaker 1 (01:16):
What did you make of it?
Speaker 3 (01:18):
A number of things.
Speaker 4 (01:19):
I mean that the summit is about showing for China
that there's a multipolar world and that America is not
the only player that can direct the international attention going
forward militarily. With regards to the parade, I saw a
projection of force, and this is not unusual for totalitarian countries,
(01:40):
but it is concerning because it and the rhetoric that
came from the event also was about war or peace,
and so I did find it a little bit threatening.
Speaker 2 (01:50):
It's been called a defiant push against US led world order.
Speaker 1 (01:55):
Would you agree?
Speaker 4 (01:57):
Yeah, completely, And it's in terms of the the first part,
because you're seeing a number of countries coming together, many
of them which are feeling either economically or politically threatened
by the United States, saying if we group together, we
won't be fragmented and we will put up an our
turnative order. The key point for me is that it's
China which is leading misorder, not Russia.
Speaker 2 (02:18):
The closeness on display between some of these leaders was
actually pretty extraordinary.
Speaker 1 (02:23):
I thought.
Speaker 2 (02:24):
I recall a clip of Putin and Mody holding hands
and laughing together, and then there was a lot of
warm language between all of them, are sharing of jokes,
and Putin that said, at one point, our relations are
at an unprecedentedly high level.
Speaker 1 (02:40):
What do you think this means?
Speaker 4 (02:43):
I think mister Trump has made his enemies very great.
He hasn't made America greater again. He's made those adversaries
against them. He's forced them into a union. And now
because of the economic and political challenges, they're becoming tighter
with India in particular, like that their relationship ship is
already India and America is difficult because you're got up
(03:04):
to fifty percent tariffs on some India goods now and
half of that twenty five percent is because they've been
buying Russian oil. What you're seeing with this public display
between Mody and Putin is two fingers to mister Trump
that they're going to continue. They're not being cowered into
a submission of what the Americans may want.
Speaker 2 (03:22):
And even Mody's presence there at the China summit to
begin with is a massive display, isn't it.
Speaker 3 (03:29):
Well.
Speaker 4 (03:31):
India has always been non aligned for a very long period,
which means it's neither been neither towards the Western countries
or towards China and Russia, and its relationship with China
has for a long time been very fraught and almost
on the verge of conflict. But what you're seeing now
is a realignment, and so what the West wanted was
that through the quad relationship that with Japan, the United States, Australia,
(03:55):
and India, that they could stay tight. But now you're
seeing India starting to move more towards the other countries,
not towards the Western ones, and it doesn't help with
the economic pressure that mister Trump is currently putting on them,
and he wants them to make a choice, and it's
possible they they make a choice, but not the way that.
Speaker 3 (04:12):
We want it.
Speaker 2 (04:13):
How does India's closeness with Putin and G complicate our
relationship with India, because of course we've tried for decades
to get a strong trading deal with India.
Speaker 4 (04:26):
Many countries have tried to get a strong trading deal
with India, and they're happy to trade until it comes
to the discussion of agriculture. And that's because they've got
a very food reliant population and they want self sufficiency,
which in itself is not necessarily a bad thing. But
going forward is going to be hard because if mister
Trump continues to push these sanctions on India of up
(04:46):
to fifty percent, he will expect similar like minded countries
to act in concert, and so that will put pressure
on Australia and New Zealand and the Europeans to see
if they.
Speaker 3 (04:56):
Too will follow suit.
Speaker 4 (04:58):
But all that will depend upon what happens in Ukraine
and whether the peace is or is not achieved. The
point here is that mister Trump's target is India, not China,
and so he's trying to make an example of them
over China. If he did the same trick with China,
it could become much more complicated.
Speaker 1 (05:14):
Well, how has the US president taken all of this.
Speaker 3 (05:19):
With regards to the military display.
Speaker 1 (05:21):
With regards to not being invited, It seems I.
Speaker 4 (05:25):
Would imagine mister Trump is currently in a position of
somewhere between envy and jealousy because he had his own
military display and it was somewhat lack luster affair and
there wasn't a huge turnout of people. But what you're
seeing with the Chinese one is that you've got a
huge amount of dignitaries, you put a massive display of force,
and you are seeing a counter approach to the American dominance.
(05:46):
And so now what I imagine is that he will
try to organize a counter parade with the US Navy
to celebrate their two hundred and fiftyth anniversary where he
wants to try to outdo the opposition. If it stays
like this, it's fine. If we have competitions between marching nations,
it's great too long as doesn't escalate. I'm okay with that.
It's a waste of money, but it's a lot safer
than the alternative.
Speaker 2 (06:06):
Well, I did see a post that he made about
his feelings, and they were pretty clear. He said, many
Americans died in China's quest for victor and glory. I
hope that they are rightfully honored and remembered for their
bravery and sacrifice. Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir
Putin and Kim Jong Un, as you conspire against the
United States of America.
Speaker 4 (06:28):
So two things here first, or you know, the purpose
of the commemoration was the end of the Second World War,
and it's good to commemorate that because we fought a
common enemy.
Speaker 3 (06:41):
We fought against fascism.
Speaker 4 (06:42):
We decided to create a new, raw spased international order,
and that was China through the two parts of its operation,
that the communists and the nationalists. It was America, it
was England, and that's good to remember that. The heart,
and that's a fear point. But the second point is
the military projection after that, and that's where it becomes
(07:04):
more difficult, because often you would not send dignitaries to
these kind of locations to kind of support them and
what they're trying to do.
Speaker 2 (07:11):
I saw G at the summit of leaders, and they
were all non Western countries. He said to them, we
must continue to take a clear stand against he Jeminism
and power politics a swipe at Trump right here.
Speaker 1 (07:27):
Jeminism, what does that mean.
Speaker 4 (07:30):
It means a world where one group controls the power,
the hegemony, and often they control it in a direct
and an indirect way.
Speaker 3 (07:38):
And what he's.
Speaker 4 (07:39):
Suggesting here is that that dominance of the United States
is no longer the only game in town. He's suggesting
that there's an alternative way for world order. And the
audience he's talking to is not the West, it's not
the United States, it's the Indo Pacific, it's Africa, it's
Latin America. And so what mister G is trying to
(07:59):
say is that we don't have to go down the
American route. Is an alternative.
Speaker 1 (08:02):
Putin G and Kim.
Speaker 2 (08:04):
It's their first appearance together in public analysts were watching
closely to see whether the trio's chumminess I suppose, might
signal closer defense relations and whether that could alter any
military calculus in the Asia Pacific region. Seeing those three
(08:24):
so close together, should that raise alarm bells for the
Indo Pacific They should.
Speaker 4 (08:30):
Have been going off some time ago, because you've got
three very powerful nuclear nations. China is linked by treaty
defensive treaty to North Korea. North Korea is linked by
defensive treaty to Russia. Russia and China, don't you'd have
that link. But between the three of them, they are
a trio and they are formidable.
Speaker 5 (08:53):
And now the former premier is smiling with leaders of
regimes who suppress freedoms on a daily basis. Dan Andrews,
hang your head in shamee. But that's just the issue,
isn't it. He's never had any shame, not on anything,
even China.
Speaker 3 (09:10):
The trip was not about me, and again with respect,
it was not about you. It was about the future
of Victoria.
Speaker 5 (09:16):
Oh, it was never about Victoria. It was always about
Dan Andrews.
Speaker 2 (09:22):
So I know that ex Victoria Premiere Dan Andrews has
gotten a lot of flak for attending the event, and
he's had to defend himself.
Speaker 1 (09:31):
John Key and Helen Clark were also there.
Speaker 2 (09:34):
Clark said that her presence was more of a line
call when she told arn Z, I think this all
gets a bit silly. We have to engage. We have
to be very clear what our own values are.
Speaker 1 (09:45):
So when it.
Speaker 2 (09:45):
Comes to New Zealand's relationship with China, how much should
we engage given the company that they keep.
Speaker 4 (09:52):
We're not at war with China. We don't have sanctions
against China. We have a number of difficult relationships right now,
and you can think of the cos you can think
of the security threat assessment, and you can think of
the military exercises and matasmen. None of this suggests we're
in conflict, but we are in troubled waters. We need
(10:13):
to keep lines of communication open. They are a friend
to us, they are very important to our economic prosperity.
But on the other hand, we need to be able
to say where we disagree with them about certain matters
of policy.
Speaker 2 (10:26):
Why do you think the public gets so angry about
these dignitaries attending this event? Is it because it was
kind of a military focused display.
Speaker 4 (10:35):
There's a number of things in this discussion. First off,
they went as private people that they did not go
as ambassadors or diplomats or heads of state of our country.
They are both former prime ministers, but it was a
personal decision on them to make that choice. They didn't
travel at the expense of the New Zealand taxpayer, as
I understand it. But this is something which is a
(10:58):
relationship with class and with Key and with China, both
positive relationships. They built an economic and social relationship between
our countries which has produced a lot of good And
if it was about the commemoration of the end of
the Second World War, then that's positive. And I would
hope that they accept similar invitations to mister Trump's next
(11:20):
parade for the celebration of the US Navy. The problem
is when you accept an invitation to a military parade
as opposed to a commemoration, and these two things became
merged in that situation. The most important piece of advice
I would say is be careful of the fighter opportunity
at the end, because there are certain people you don't
want to be in the same frame with.
Speaker 2 (11:40):
Yeah, I saw that one that you know, did you
see that big one with all of the world leaders,
and you've got you know, the President of Iran and
Kim Jong un, Putin Ji or basically a role call
of all the people perhaps that you didn't want to
be in a photo with them. Then you've got Sky
and News pointing out Dan Andrews, and of course John
(12:00):
and Helen Clark were in that.
Speaker 1 (12:01):
Photo somewhere else as well.
Speaker 2 (12:03):
But I just thought that was interesting being so close
to those other people.
Speaker 4 (12:08):
That's a difficult call. I personally would have done it differently.
There are some photos you want to be in and
some photos you don't want to be in. And it's
one thing to commemorate at the end of the Second
World War. It's another thing to be involved in the
very militaristic display of the projection of power of countries,
which we have differences with.
Speaker 2 (12:25):
Watching the commemorations right from the beginning of the week,
so you had the China summit and then you had
the military operations. Obviously it did kind of seem like
that Vladimir Putin was a guest of honor unofficially, I suppose,
would you agree, I'd.
Speaker 3 (12:40):
Say almost officially, not just unofficially.
Speaker 2 (12:43):
To me.
Speaker 4 (12:43):
One of the insights is the degree of rapport between
g and Putin, and Modi and Putin, and so this
kind of idea that the countries which are opposed to
the Western way of working in the international relations are
alienated and not working together as mistaken. I see a
(13:05):
depth of relationship and a friendship, and they're working quite
closely together. The challenge going forward is unless we can
start to resolve some of these deeper disputes like Ukraine
and potentially also Palestine, then that chasm between the West,
which I put New Zealand and with the European connection
and America and the rest could only get wider.
Speaker 2 (13:25):
I think it's interesting that you point out as well
that we shouldn't assume that they're not all working together.
I saw that there was some conversation around Vladimir Putin
confirming that in his sideline chats with other world leaders
he would discuss what happened in Alaska with Donald Trump,
(13:46):
and the media just kind of thought, well, there you go.
You know, he's having these open conversations with leaders of
the East World, so to speak.
Speaker 4 (13:57):
And as mister Putin's talking with his friends and colleagues,
mister Trump is busially talking to his friends and colleagues.
And so you'll be aware right now that Judith Collins
is in Ukraine and is in Europe, and this is
partly about reaffirming our relationship with Ukraine and also potentially
our role in the Coalition of the Willing. And so
(14:19):
what we've got to wait to see is that the
three of them come together Zelenski, Putin and Trump and
then how that all falls out.
Speaker 3 (14:27):
It's going to be difficult.
Speaker 4 (14:28):
Unless you can start to resolve these difficulties, that chasm
between the Western world and the non Western world will
only get wider.
Speaker 2 (14:35):
In terms of the Pacific Islands, we talked about the
Endo Pacific, the Pacific Islands Forum is this week, I
saw that the Solomon Islands Prime Minister Jeremiah Minelle has
succeeded in his wish to kick out twenty one donor countries,
including the US, China and Taiwan from actually coming. He'll
allow them to come next year, or they'll be able
(14:57):
to come next year.
Speaker 1 (14:58):
Rather, what's the signal.
Speaker 2 (15:00):
Eificance of this And do you think it's a good
move given what we've just seen with the China summit
and the military parade.
Speaker 4 (15:06):
I think it's a poor move. I think it's not
contrary to the Pacific spirit. And I think also if
you've got countries which are donors in the region, you
need to have them at the meetings, not external to
the meetings, because the more coordination and transparency you can
have with those who are interested in the development, the
sustainable development of the Pacific, the better. I think excluding
(15:27):
them as a political move, but it's not in the
interest of the Pacific.
Speaker 2 (15:30):
Do you think excluding them was to exclude any questions
about the Solomon Islands deal with China or have not
the attention taken away from the forum to have to
answer questions about their involvement with Taiwan and the US
and such.
Speaker 4 (15:48):
I think if the media does its job, they will
get those questions anyway. But what I see here is
that the situation the Pacific is changing. Almost every month
you see a change in it, and with New Zealand
obviously we saw the change into Cook Island. And there's
going to be a lot of difficult questions and debate
that will be held behind closed doors. But excluding the
(16:08):
countries which are the answer, the economic answer to the
sustainability of this region is counterintuitive.
Speaker 2 (16:15):
And just lastly, and in terms I know that I
keep talking about the Chinese military parade, right, but when
you see those images of you know, those thousands and
thousands of soldiers goose stepping along us, alongside Tianaman Square,
it is a massive spectacle and a massive display. It's
their first military parade in six years. And if we
(16:37):
have a look at the military parade, I see China
unveiled a lot of new war technology.
Speaker 1 (16:42):
So you've got the likes of sea drones, laser weapons.
Speaker 2 (16:46):
Reuters is calling it China's most advanced display of military
weaponry yet.
Speaker 1 (16:52):
Now, while I'm.
Speaker 2 (16:53):
Sure that g is just super stoked to show off
its war toys, there has to be an underlying reason
why he is showing off his war toys.
Speaker 4 (17:03):
It's to project power. It's to threaten opposing countries. It's
to show them in very public manner, this is what
we've got, and this could be facing you if things
don't go well. It's a clear projection of force and
it's meant to intimidate, and it's partly propaganda, but it's
partly real. At the same time, these kind of parades
are things that you see much more with totalitarian countries
(17:26):
than you do with Western countries. But as we've said before,
with mister Trump and his military parade, he now has
had one. He wasn't happy, but he'll probably do another one.
But it doesn't engender feelings of peace, it doesn't engender
feelings of cooperation. It's a threatening move to sort of
like see this kind of projection of power, which is
(17:46):
why often countries don't send the highest dignataries if they're
opposing them to these meetings.
Speaker 1 (17:51):
Thanks for joining us, al.
Speaker 3 (17:53):
You're welcome.
Speaker 2 (17:57):
That said, for this episode of the Front Page. You
can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage
at enziherld dot co dot MZ. The Front Page is
produced by Jane Ye and Richard Martin, who is also
our editor. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to The Front Page
on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts, and tune
(18:21):
in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.