July 15, 2025 • 14 mins
Most of central Auckland sits on the remains of 53 volcanic cones and craters.
While there’s no way of knowing when an eruption will happen, it’s been said time and time again that it’s not a case of ‘if’, but ‘when.
New research now suggests that deathly clouds of hot, fast-moving gas and debris could travel much further than previously thought if an eruption happened in Auckland.
But, how likely is it that a volcanic eruption could happen in Auckland in our lifetime? And what can we gain from this research?
Today on The Front Page, we’re talking to University of Auckland professor Jan Lindsay, who is spearheading the research into our volcanic threats.
Follow The Front Page on iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
You can read more about this and other stories in the New Zealand Herald, online at nzherald.co.nz, or tune in to news bulletins across the NZME network.
Host: Chelsea Daniels
Sound Engineer/Producer: Richard Martin
Producer: Ethan Sills
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:04):
Kiota.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a
daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. Most of
central Auckland sits on the remains of fifty three volcanic
cones and craters. Well, there's no way of knowing when
an eruption will happen. It's been said time and time again.
(00:28):
It's not a case of if, but when. New research
now suggests that deathly clouds of hot, fast moving gas
and debris could travel much further than previously thought if
an eruption happened in Auckland. But how likely is it
that a volcanic eruption could happen in Auckland in our lifetime?
(00:51):
And what can we gain from this new research? Today
on the front Page, we're talking to University of Auckland
professor Jen Lindsay, who spearheading this research into our volcanic threats. So, Jan,
we see these stories every few months about the threat
(01:13):
of a new volcanic eruption in Auckland. I guess the
big question to get out of the way initially is
are we talking about an immediate threat or are we
gazing into a crystal ball here?
Speaker 3 (01:24):
You no we're definitely not talking about an immediate threat.
I mean to put things into perspective. We've had about
fifty three eruptions and volcanoes form over a two hundred
thousand year period, So it's a long period of time,
and there have been quite a few volcanoes formed in
(01:44):
that time. But in order to try and work out
what the likelihood is of a future event happening, you
have to sort of look at how often the volcanoes
have erupted over that time and what the pattern is,
and you know, the distribution of the eruption. So you
could just do an average of say fifty three volcanoes
(02:05):
over two hundred thousand year period. That gives you, you know,
an average of one every I don't know, three thousand,
six hundred years or something. But that's not a true
reflection of the of actually the situation we're in at
the moment, because the last sixty thousand years we've had
more events than in the previous times before then. So
what you can actually do, and what researchers have done
(02:27):
is they've said, okay, well let's look at the time
between eruptions, which we call the repose period, and we
can find out which repose period is the median reposed period.
Turns out that's about five hundred years. And then you
can also look at what the repose period is that's
most common, that's what we call the mode, and that
(02:49):
is also around say five hundred years. So what that
basically means is over the last sixty thousand years, it's
been quite common for volcanoes to have five hundred year
period between eruptions or between forming new eruptions, so forming
new volcanoes. So we can take that as an indication of,
you know, the sort of likelihood of a future eruption.
(03:13):
So it turns out that a one in five hundred
year event is roughly about a ten percent chance in
any fifty year period. It's a very long answer, but
it is a complicated concept to get your head around. Well,
no imminent threat, but definitely something that could happen in
the future. So yes, we're really trying to study the
(03:33):
volcanic field.
Speaker 2 (03:35):
Right, So the latest eruption in Auckland was about six
hundred years ago, so I believe, but it is still
considered active.
Speaker 3 (03:45):
Can you talk to us about that?
Speaker 2 (03:46):
Okay, when I hear active, I think, right, should I
live in Mount Eden.
Speaker 3 (03:51):
Should I move, Yeah, No, it's it's one of those
words a active, dormant, extinct. What do they actually mean, Well,
the Auckland volcanic field. Each volcano is sort of a
one hit wonder, So typically volcano forms and then it
sort of dies, but the field itself is considered potentially active.
(04:14):
I prefer that term potentially active rather than active, because
active to me also implies what something's happening right now.
So it's potentially active. That means there could be another
eruption in the future, unlikely to be from any existing vent.
Although we do know that Rangututo did erupt twice, with
a few decades in between those eruptions, about six hundred
(04:36):
years ago, and we also know that there is let's
say that the magma beneath a Rangutata that has now frozen,
that is now solidified, I should say, is still warm.
So it's still warm and it's enough to generate sort
of signals that we can see and when we use
our GeOH physical techniques. So it's cooling down, solid it's
(04:56):
calling down, but it's still warm. So you know, in
geological terms, six hundred years is not a very long
time It's certainly possible that the field could erupt again,
but it's unlikely that any individual vent will erupt again.
There's no greater chance than that one of those would
erupt again than anywhere else.
Speaker 4 (05:15):
Put it that way, The mythology surrounding Awkland's volcanoes are
really fascinating, and it's thought that the Maldi gods Matajoe
and rural Molco brought volcanoes and earthquakes to the city.
Many of the mountains and craters around Mungary to this
day are still called the Sacred Footprints of Matahoe. The
volcanoes of Auckland whore once the most densely populated areas
(05:37):
by Maldi prior to European arrival. Their height provided ideal
defense opportunities, and their rich volcanic soils provided really great gardening.
To this day, you can still see remnants of gardens
and par all around cones such as Mongopho Well.
Speaker 2 (05:55):
Recent research suggests right that these base surges from Auckland
eruptions could travel up to fifteen kilometers, which is about
twice as far as previously thought. How does this finding
change our understanding of these dormant or potentially active volcanoes.
Speaker 3 (06:16):
Sure, but I'll just clarify that a little bit. It
was research that happened overseas in similar volcanic fields that
showed that this type of base search, which is a
type of what we call pyroclastic density current, can travel
further than we thought they could travel. So the research
happened in Death Valley overseas at a volcanic field over
(06:38):
there in the US, and it got us thinking, and
we started to think, gosh, if there are other places
in the world where these base surgers can travel up
to ten or fifteen kilometers, we need to see if
that's possible in Auckland. So what we're doing is we
are researching, like taking another real thorough look at the
(06:59):
evidence for this type of phenomena in the Aukland volcanic field.
And we've got these deposits in various places around the field.
We know this type of phenomenon occurs in the Auckland
volcanic field, so we're looking at them. We're looking how
far they travel from the vent and we're going to
do some modeling to work out how far, you know,
(07:20):
based on the characteristics of those types of flows in
our volcanic field and the type of magma and the
likely water contents that would be involved, because these occur
when you get explosive magma water interaction. Can they also
travel that far in Auckland. So that's the research that
we're doing at the moment, and it's super important because
(07:43):
these are considered the most dangerous phenomena phenomenon in an
Aukland volcanic field eruption because they're so fast moving. Thus
it's so rapid, and they may occur at the beginning
of an eruption, So we need to know how far
they travel in order to make decisions around and how
big the evacuation zone should be around event.
Speaker 5 (08:03):
For example, of the fifty three spots of those, are
there any that researchers are kind of looking at a
little bit more closely than others or is it just
(08:24):
all kind of like similar.
Speaker 3 (08:27):
They're all slightly different, And yes, there are some that
researchers are looking at more closely, but those decisions are
primarily made based on what the exposures are like. Because
we've gone and plucked a big city on top of
our beautiful volcanic fields, So a lot of the exposures
have gone, they've been quarried away or built over. So
(08:48):
we really need to go to the places where the
exposures are available, where the outcrops are available, So they
tend to be the target volcano. So we try and
learn as much as we can about the wider field
based on those volcanoes.
Speaker 4 (09:05):
So the sounds that you've got all bases covered, we
can just kick back and relax and just wait.
Speaker 3 (09:09):
For you to let us know.
Speaker 1 (09:11):
Well, unfortunately that's not the case. It might not be
in your lifetime. The rest of your lifetime is relatively low,
but it could also happen tomorrow. So you need to
be prepared for a whole range of emergencies in your home,
including volcanic eruptions in Auckland.
Speaker 2 (09:28):
When we do run these stories warning of a volcanic
event or new research, I see the comments. There's panic, disbelief,
there's accusations of fear mongering, clickbait as well as another one.
What do you say to all of that? What should
we actually be looking at and learning from.
Speaker 3 (09:46):
It's important just to just be a weir. I mean,
there's really no point putting your head in the sand,
yeah and saying I don't believe anything could happen, because
you know, things do happen, and even though the likelihood
is very small, you know, unlikely things happen, and so
it's good to know that the volcanic field exists. It's
(10:09):
good for people to know that there's a whole bunch
of people that are working on it and trying to
understand it better. It's good for people to know that people,
for example, in the Devora Research program are actively working
with Auckland Emergency Management and other Auckland Council staffed so
that everyone kind of knows what the latest research is
(10:30):
and things we need to look out for. And it's
good for people to just be a little bit knowledgeable
of the sorts of things that can happen. But we
have to also weigh up the fact that if it
does happen, it would be huge, you know. So it's
what we call a low probability but a very high consequence.
Speaker 2 (10:50):
How do we approach communicating that then, like that inevitability
of an eruption to the public that may not have
experienced one in living memory, of course, without causing that alarm.
Speaker 3 (11:01):
Yeah, it's difficult. I think it's good to just keep
talking about it, keep the conversation going doing things like this,
sharing our research, inviting people to look at our websites
and our Facebook pages, and just encouraging people to be
curious about the world around them, because often once they
(11:22):
start realizing that, oh, they've only been fifty three eruptions
over two hundred thousand years, that's actually not very you know,
not very many, and so it might be reassuring to
know that there's people researching it, that they don't happen
very often, that the field is monitored, for example, you
know some of the key facts that we might like
(11:42):
to share. You know, people have a program of active
monitoring through the GNET program of the volcanos in alterior,
including in Tarmaki Makoto, so you know, there are seismometers
just keeping an air open in case anything happens. So
I think if people are actively sort of or develop
(12:03):
an active interest in just knowing that people are researching
it and that the right people are talking to each other,
it's probably reassuring. I hope.
Speaker 2 (12:12):
What's the fear of the unknown, isn't it if you
don't know too much about the volcanoes in I mean,
if I called up my mum tomorrow and said, did
you know that there are fifty three technically active volcanoes
in Auckland? Should be like, why are you living there?
But if you know, if you delve a little bit
deeper and go through some of the basics, then you know. Actually,
in researching this episode, I stumbled upon a hazard fact
(12:36):
sheet about volcanic eruptions made by the Auckland Emergency Management.
I'm assuming your team had something to do with this
as well. Yeah, and it suggests things like having a plan,
what to do during interruption, what to do after one.
Tell me how many people do you actually think have
read this document?
Speaker 4 (12:54):
Oh?
Speaker 3 (12:54):
I don't know. I'm not exactly sure which specific document
you're referring to. But you know, we have periods of
time where people are more interested in the Auckland volcanic field.
It's often in relation to other events. So for example,
when Kilaway in Hawaii was erupting, there was a bit
of interest and we proactively talked about the Auckland volcanic
(13:17):
field during that time. And I think during those periods
of time people actually seek out that sort of information.
We also have, you know, a series of fact sheets
that we distribute at every chance we get. We get
involved in things like motat open days and the Heritage
Festival and things like that and share the information, particularly
(13:39):
with school children, school age children. There's a general awareness
across Auckland that we don't know what might affect us.
Might be a flood, might be a storm, might be
a landslide. But it's always good to just be prepared,
to have a getaway kit or you know, some safety
(14:01):
equipment and supplies handy just in case. You know, we
live in New Zealand. It's a tectonically active and meteorologically
very active country, so you know, there's always something happening somewhere,
so it's good to just be prepared. Thanks for joining us,
jan are you welcome. Thank you for having me.
Speaker 2 (14:24):
That's it for this episode of The Front Page. You
can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage
at enzidherld dot co dot MZ. The Front Page is
produced by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin, who is also
our editor. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to the Front Page
on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts, and tune
(14:47):
in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.
Kiota.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
I'm Chelsea Daniels and this is the Front Page, a
daily podcast presented by the New Zealand Herald. Most of
central Auckland sits on the remains of fifty three volcanic
cones and craters. Well, there's no way of knowing when
an eruption will happen. It's been said time and time again.
(00:28):
It's not a case of if, but when. New research
now suggests that deathly clouds of hot, fast moving gas
and debris could travel much further than previously thought if
an eruption happened in Auckland. But how likely is it
that a volcanic eruption could happen in Auckland in our lifetime?
(00:51):
And what can we gain from this new research? Today
on the front Page, we're talking to University of Auckland
professor Jen Lindsay, who spearheading this research into our volcanic threats. So, Jan,
we see these stories every few months about the threat
(01:13):
of a new volcanic eruption in Auckland. I guess the
big question to get out of the way initially is
are we talking about an immediate threat or are we
gazing into a crystal ball here?
Speaker 3 (01:24):
You no we're definitely not talking about an immediate threat.
I mean to put things into perspective. We've had about
fifty three eruptions and volcanoes form over a two hundred
thousand year period, So it's a long period of time,
and there have been quite a few volcanoes formed in
(01:44):
that time. But in order to try and work out
what the likelihood is of a future event happening, you
have to sort of look at how often the volcanoes
have erupted over that time and what the pattern is,
and you know, the distribution of the eruption. So you
could just do an average of say fifty three volcanoes
(02:05):
over two hundred thousand year period. That gives you, you know,
an average of one every I don't know, three thousand,
six hundred years or something. But that's not a true
reflection of the of actually the situation we're in at
the moment, because the last sixty thousand years we've had
more events than in the previous times before then. So
what you can actually do, and what researchers have done
(02:27):
is they've said, okay, well let's look at the time
between eruptions, which we call the repose period, and we
can find out which repose period is the median reposed period.
Turns out that's about five hundred years. And then you
can also look at what the repose period is that's
most common, that's what we call the mode, and that
(02:49):
is also around say five hundred years. So what that
basically means is over the last sixty thousand years, it's
been quite common for volcanoes to have five hundred year
period between eruptions or between forming new eruptions, so forming
new volcanoes. So we can take that as an indication of,
you know, the sort of likelihood of a future eruption.
(03:13):
So it turns out that a one in five hundred
year event is roughly about a ten percent chance in
any fifty year period. It's a very long answer, but
it is a complicated concept to get your head around. Well,
no imminent threat, but definitely something that could happen in
the future. So yes, we're really trying to study the
(03:33):
volcanic field.
Speaker 2 (03:35):
Right, So the latest eruption in Auckland was about six
hundred years ago, so I believe, but it is still
considered active.
Speaker 3 (03:45):
Can you talk to us about that?
Speaker 2 (03:46):
Okay, when I hear active, I think, right, should I
live in Mount Eden.
Speaker 3 (03:51):
Should I move, Yeah, No, it's it's one of those
words a active, dormant, extinct. What do they actually mean, Well,
the Auckland volcanic field. Each volcano is sort of a
one hit wonder, So typically volcano forms and then it
sort of dies, but the field itself is considered potentially active.
(04:14):
I prefer that term potentially active rather than active, because
active to me also implies what something's happening right now.
So it's potentially active. That means there could be another
eruption in the future, unlikely to be from any existing vent.
Although we do know that Rangututo did erupt twice, with
a few decades in between those eruptions, about six hundred
(04:36):
years ago, and we also know that there is let's
say that the magma beneath a Rangutata that has now frozen,
that is now solidified, I should say, is still warm.
So it's still warm and it's enough to generate sort
of signals that we can see and when we use
our GeOH physical techniques. So it's cooling down, solid it's
(04:56):
calling down, but it's still warm. So you know, in
geological terms, six hundred years is not a very long
time It's certainly possible that the field could erupt again,
but it's unlikely that any individual vent will erupt again.
There's no greater chance than that one of those would
erupt again than anywhere else.
Speaker 4 (05:15):
Put it that way, The mythology surrounding Awkland's volcanoes are
really fascinating, and it's thought that the Maldi gods Matajoe
and rural Molco brought volcanoes and earthquakes to the city.
Many of the mountains and craters around Mungary to this
day are still called the Sacred Footprints of Matahoe. The
volcanoes of Auckland whore once the most densely populated areas
(05:37):
by Maldi prior to European arrival. Their height provided ideal
defense opportunities, and their rich volcanic soils provided really great gardening.
To this day, you can still see remnants of gardens
and par all around cones such as Mongopho Well.
Speaker 2 (05:55):
Recent research suggests right that these base surges from Auckland
eruptions could travel up to fifteen kilometers, which is about
twice as far as previously thought. How does this finding
change our understanding of these dormant or potentially active volcanoes.
Speaker 3 (06:16):
Sure, but I'll just clarify that a little bit. It
was research that happened overseas in similar volcanic fields that
showed that this type of base search, which is a
type of what we call pyroclastic density current, can travel
further than we thought they could travel. So the research
happened in Death Valley overseas at a volcanic field over
(06:38):
there in the US, and it got us thinking, and
we started to think, gosh, if there are other places
in the world where these base surgers can travel up
to ten or fifteen kilometers, we need to see if
that's possible in Auckland. So what we're doing is we
are researching, like taking another real thorough look at the
(06:59):
evidence for this type of phenomena in the Aukland volcanic field.
And we've got these deposits in various places around the field.
We know this type of phenomenon occurs in the Auckland
volcanic field, so we're looking at them. We're looking how
far they travel from the vent and we're going to
do some modeling to work out how far, you know,
(07:20):
based on the characteristics of those types of flows in
our volcanic field and the type of magma and the
likely water contents that would be involved, because these occur
when you get explosive magma water interaction. Can they also
travel that far in Auckland. So that's the research that
we're doing at the moment, and it's super important because
(07:43):
these are considered the most dangerous phenomena phenomenon in an
Aukland volcanic field eruption because they're so fast moving. Thus
it's so rapid, and they may occur at the beginning
of an eruption, So we need to know how far
they travel in order to make decisions around and how
big the evacuation zone should be around event.
Speaker 5 (08:03):
For example, of the fifty three spots of those, are
there any that researchers are kind of looking at a
little bit more closely than others or is it just
(08:24):
all kind of like similar.
Speaker 3 (08:27):
They're all slightly different, And yes, there are some that
researchers are looking at more closely, but those decisions are
primarily made based on what the exposures are like. Because
we've gone and plucked a big city on top of
our beautiful volcanic fields, So a lot of the exposures
have gone, they've been quarried away or built over. So
(08:48):
we really need to go to the places where the
exposures are available, where the outcrops are available, So they
tend to be the target volcano. So we try and
learn as much as we can about the wider field
based on those volcanoes.
Speaker 4 (09:05):
So the sounds that you've got all bases covered, we
can just kick back and relax and just wait.
Speaker 3 (09:09):
For you to let us know.
Speaker 1 (09:11):
Well, unfortunately that's not the case. It might not be
in your lifetime. The rest of your lifetime is relatively low,
but it could also happen tomorrow. So you need to
be prepared for a whole range of emergencies in your home,
including volcanic eruptions in Auckland.
Speaker 2 (09:28):
When we do run these stories warning of a volcanic
event or new research, I see the comments. There's panic, disbelief,
there's accusations of fear mongering, clickbait as well as another one.
What do you say to all of that? What should
we actually be looking at and learning from.
Speaker 3 (09:46):
It's important just to just be a weir. I mean,
there's really no point putting your head in the sand,
yeah and saying I don't believe anything could happen, because
you know, things do happen, and even though the likelihood
is very small, you know, unlikely things happen, and so
it's good to know that the volcanic field exists. It's
(10:09):
good for people to know that there's a whole bunch
of people that are working on it and trying to
understand it better. It's good for people to know that people,
for example, in the Devora Research program are actively working
with Auckland Emergency Management and other Auckland Council staffed so
that everyone kind of knows what the latest research is
(10:30):
and things we need to look out for. And it's
good for people to just be a little bit knowledgeable
of the sorts of things that can happen. But we
have to also weigh up the fact that if it
does happen, it would be huge, you know. So it's
what we call a low probability but a very high consequence.
Speaker 2 (10:50):
How do we approach communicating that then, like that inevitability
of an eruption to the public that may not have
experienced one in living memory, of course, without causing that alarm.
Speaker 3 (11:01):
Yeah, it's difficult. I think it's good to just keep
talking about it, keep the conversation going doing things like this,
sharing our research, inviting people to look at our websites
and our Facebook pages, and just encouraging people to be
curious about the world around them, because often once they
(11:22):
start realizing that, oh, they've only been fifty three eruptions
over two hundred thousand years, that's actually not very you know,
not very many, and so it might be reassuring to
know that there's people researching it, that they don't happen
very often, that the field is monitored, for example, you
know some of the key facts that we might like
(11:42):
to share. You know, people have a program of active
monitoring through the GNET program of the volcanos in alterior,
including in Tarmaki Makoto, so you know, there are seismometers
just keeping an air open in case anything happens. So
I think if people are actively sort of or develop
(12:03):
an active interest in just knowing that people are researching
it and that the right people are talking to each other,
it's probably reassuring. I hope.
Speaker 2 (12:12):
What's the fear of the unknown, isn't it if you
don't know too much about the volcanoes in I mean,
if I called up my mum tomorrow and said, did
you know that there are fifty three technically active volcanoes
in Auckland? Should be like, why are you living there?
But if you know, if you delve a little bit
deeper and go through some of the basics, then you know. Actually,
in researching this episode, I stumbled upon a hazard fact
(12:36):
sheet about volcanic eruptions made by the Auckland Emergency Management.
I'm assuming your team had something to do with this
as well. Yeah, and it suggests things like having a plan,
what to do during interruption, what to do after one.
Tell me how many people do you actually think have
read this document?
Speaker 4 (12:54):
Oh?
Speaker 3 (12:54):
I don't know. I'm not exactly sure which specific document
you're referring to. But you know, we have periods of
time where people are more interested in the Auckland volcanic field.
It's often in relation to other events. So for example,
when Kilaway in Hawaii was erupting, there was a bit
of interest and we proactively talked about the Auckland volcanic
(13:17):
field during that time. And I think during those periods
of time people actually seek out that sort of information.
We also have, you know, a series of fact sheets
that we distribute at every chance we get. We get
involved in things like motat open days and the Heritage
Festival and things like that and share the information, particularly
(13:39):
with school children, school age children. There's a general awareness
across Auckland that we don't know what might affect us.
Might be a flood, might be a storm, might be
a landslide. But it's always good to just be prepared,
to have a getaway kit or you know, some safety
(14:01):
equipment and supplies handy just in case. You know, we
live in New Zealand. It's a tectonically active and meteorologically
very active country, so you know, there's always something happening somewhere,
so it's good to just be prepared. Thanks for joining us,
jan are you welcome. Thank you for having me.
Speaker 2 (14:24):
That's it for this episode of The Front Page. You
can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage
at enzidherld dot co dot MZ. The Front Page is
produced by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin, who is also
our editor. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to the Front Page
on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts, and tune
(14:47):
in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.
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