January 15, 2025 • 19 mins
Earlier this month, Justin Trudeau resigned as Canada’s Prime Minister, marking the end of his nine years in office.
Trudeau was also one of the last leaders standing from an era of younger, left-leaning or liberal politicians, alongside the likes of Finland’s Sanna Marin and our own Jacinda Ardern, who garnered global attention for bringing a fresher approach to politics.
That era seems well and truly over. Last year, more than 60 countries went to the polls, and many countries saw voters swing to the right, or voting against incumbent governments rather than necessarily voting in favour of their opposition.
Peter Frankopan is an author and professor of global history at Oxford University, and joined us on The Front Page last year to preview ‘the year of elections’. He joins us today on The Front Page to discuss the shifting sands of global politics.
Follow The Front Page on iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
You can read more about this and other stories in the New Zealand Herald, online at nzherald.co.nz, or tune in to news bulletins across the NZME network.
Host: Chelsea Daniels
Sound Engineer/Producer: Richard Martin
Producer: Ethan Sills
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:06):
Jilda.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
I'm Chelsea Daniels and This is the Front Page, a
daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald. Earlier this month,
Justin Trudeau resigned as Canada's Prime Minister, marking the end
of his nine years in office. Trudeau was also one
(00:26):
of the last leaders standing from an era of younger
left leaning or liberal politicians. Alongside the likes of Finland's
Son of Maarn and our own Jacindra Dern, who garnered
global attention for bringing a fresher approach to politics, that
era seems well and truly over. Last year, more than
(00:49):
sixty countries went to the polls, and many countries saw
voters swing to the right or voting against incumbent governments
rather than necessarily voting in favor of the opposition. Peter
Frankopan is an author and professor of global history at
Oxford University and joined us on the Front Page last
year to preview the year of elections. He joins us
(01:14):
today on the Front Page to discuss the shifting sense
of global politics. Peter, I've seen some commentary around Justin
Trudeau's resignation as being the latest casualty of the pronounced
shift to the right taking place in many Western democracies.
Do you think that's fair.
Speaker 1 (01:35):
That's a great question. It's so hard to generalize, you know,
we see these patterns and assume that everything must be
the same in every single country. I think what is
interesting is that this year that's just gone by, twenty
twenty four was the year in which more people voted
than at any time ever in human history. And one
of the themes that was consistent around the world was
it was almost impossible for a party to stay in power.
(01:58):
It didn't matter whether you were left or right. Voters
felt that they're not being well served by the people
who they put into put into office. So some of it,
I think is about the big the bigger picture about
what's actually going on. Is it that people don't like Trudeau?
Is it that people don't like the right the left?
Is it populism? And I guess one of the things
that's really important is that we're living in an age
of revolutions, but we're also in an age of transitions.
(02:21):
You know, whatever your political persuasions or views, you know,
we've got obviously a major climate reorganization, these new technologies
that you know, we don't quite know how they're going
to change the world around us. We've got demographics that
are changing quite quickly, a big shift of political and
economic power, lots of states that are more ambitious than
they maybe used to be. And I guess in that
(02:43):
sort of sense of uncertainty, you want someone who's going
to set a course for you and has a vision
that says, this is what's going on and this is
what the future lies in store. And I think one
of the challenges a lot of politicians have had is
that they're not used to having to take that long
term view. So I don't know whether you could use
what's happening in Canada to judge these big shifts in
(03:04):
different parts of the world, but I think that there's
you know, people are not very happy right now. You know,
it's very hard to see a country anywhere on the
planet where people are really pleased with their leadership. And
that's not just in democracies too. But you know, it's
all about fundamentals, and if you think that tomorrow is
going to be better than today, you're much more forgiving. But
I think in most parts of the world, people think
(03:25):
that the world and tomorrow is going to be more
scary and worse.
Speaker 3 (03:32):
Every morning I've woken up as Prime Minister, I've been
inspired by the resilience, the generosity and the determination of Canadians.
It is the driving force of every single day I
have the privilege of serving in this office. That is
why since twenty fifteen, I've fought for this country for you.
Speaker 2 (03:58):
Well, going back to twenty fifteen, when Trudeau became Canada's
Prime minister, I remember how much excitement there was on
social media about this, you know, good looking, well spoken,
fresh faced politician coming onto the world stage. And we
saw that actually again two years later here in New
Zealand when Jacindra Ardrn became our Prime minister. What was
it about that time do you think that led to
(04:18):
that global excitement in these types of I guess people's politicians.
Speaker 1 (04:23):
I think ten years ago, you know, we were coming
out of the horrors of the Great Financial Crisis, you know,
people feeling that that you know, maybe the all the
generations had messed stuff up for us, and there was
a kind of you know the freshness of people like
Jacinda Adrn and Justin Trudeau, you know, David Cameron and
Nick Klegg. They were all young as leaders. You know,
(04:43):
Cameron had never had a government post, never had been
a shadow and never even been a shadow minister before
he became primes here in the UK twenty ten. And
I think there was just a lot there was something
in the air that people felt that it was really
exciting that there were these new telephones we could all connect,
you know, the idea that there were new ways that
you could share information on Twitter. And now a lot
(05:05):
of those things that we all thought were going to
be exciting look like they're slightly poisonous or toxic, you know,
the social media. We sort of are aware that that's
really bad for young people and their sort of interactions
with each other, completely compulsive and in fact, just over
the water from you guys, Australia banned social media for
young people. The idea that we were going to have
(05:26):
automation and robotics that will make our lives easier. People
are now worrying about how they're actually going to pay
their bills if we all get replaced by by robots.
But I think there was something about that first wave
of a new, brave, new world that we sort of
slightly got wrong, that we weren't all going to sit
around the campfire and hold hands and sing songs and
all get rich and old together. Suddenly the world looks
(05:47):
a lot more dangerous. But I think there was a
moment ten years ago of optimism, hope, and younger leaders
who could sort of frame what they thought was going
to happen. You know, Barack Obama was part of that
story too. Looking back on it, I wonder how many
of those leaders we all thought look the part, and
we could all imagine them dropping in for dinner with
us and sharing a drink and having a good chat
about lots of different things. How many of them were
(06:09):
quite superficial and actually under delivered. I think that that's
quite a long list. Macro probably is joining that club
at the moment, as well as a lot of leaders
around the world. And there was something of the kind
of of an excitement a decade ago that's not here Today.
Speaker 4 (06:25):
All ten of the world's most populated countries half leaders
or a leader elect over the age of seventy. Compare
that to a decade ago when that was true for
only one country.
Speaker 5 (06:35):
Well more than half of the world at this point
lives in a country where a leader is over seventy.
Speaker 4 (06:40):
And those leaders are on average more than forty years
older than their population's median age.
Speaker 2 (06:47):
Well, when we spoke to you last and you mentioned
this before, it was the year of elections. Over sixty
countries went to the polls last year and there were
some left leaning or liberal victories, which will get too so,
but the big trend was a shift to the right,
or often the far right. We saw what's leading this
shift to embracing these populist leaders.
Speaker 1 (07:05):
Do you think, oh, people want simple answers, that's it.
You know, you people have lost lost the patience to
hear that problems are complex. So someone who stands up
and gives a one line answer saying, you know, it's
all about immigration, that's just stopped people coming. That sort
of sounds simple, and it sounds that, you know, it's dramatic,
and it sounds like it's action. One of the problems
with populist is that they overpromise and then under deliver,
(07:28):
you know, because these problems are complex and it's very
hard to have a single solution. But you know, I
think that that people have got frustrated with the lack
of action, and you know, buy and large. What tends
to happen as a historian, and I'm not here to
defend the far right far left. You know, obvious you
probably could imagine when we met Chelsea pretty pretty centrist
in wanting to hear lots of opinions and will split
(07:49):
the difference down the middle, but buy in larger habits
In history is populists who promise action and promise results
tend to make complicated issues worse rather than better. So
you know, it's a real challenge for democracies that we
find leaders who can actually make improvements and who actually
understand how difficult the job is and can explain that
and communicate it to voters. And you know, if you
(08:10):
can do that, voters are not stupid. Often they're smarter
than the politicians they put into office. But it require
requires a special ability to be able to communicate and
to get people to trust you. And they'll trust you
if they can see that you're working hard. They can
trust you if they think that you are really getting
stuck in. And one of the problems that people like
Trudeau had was that, you know, if you get photographed
dancing at a Taylor Swift concert while people worrying about
(08:33):
about paying the bills, you know, it's not a great look.
And if you lose you know, if you if you
lose that common touch, you lose the dressing room. And
when that happens, you know you're you're looking for a
new job.
Speaker 2 (08:43):
Yeah, Like, do you think that cultivating that global online attention?
You mentioned him at the Taylor Swift concert.
Speaker 4 (08:52):
Luzeal And five Minister just send Ardern, what are you
doing here?
Speaker 1 (08:56):
Saved my name?
Speaker 2 (08:57):
I came out.
Speaker 1 (08:58):
I thought, that's how the show.
Speaker 5 (08:59):
Works, so right right, that's how Jeff Poblum always.
Speaker 2 (09:02):
Gets in here. Letting yourself become a celebrity. Does that
do more harm than good long term?
Speaker 1 (09:10):
I guess so. I mean, God, God knows what you
and I would do if we were Prime Minister and
Foreign Minister in New Zealand. If you get offered a ticket,
or you even even I dare say even you guys
in New Zealand occasionally have to buy your own tickets
rather than get give them for free. It's quite hard
to live your life constantly in public under public pressure.
But you do need to have quite good judgment. I
mean that I think is the key to to you know,
(09:32):
having a happy relationship at home, to being a parent,
to being a child. So you know, we all have
friends who've just got some of them got really good judgment,
and unfortunately we've all got a few friends who've got
really bad judgment. But you know, you want someone who's
able to recognize that they sometimes have to change how
they're doing things. And you know, it's hard if you're
if you're a celebrity and people are always either saying
(09:53):
good things about your bad things about you, and it's
it's it's hard to live your life where you're being
judged all the time. But that's what happens when you
work for the people who vote for you. And you know,
I think it's a tricky one about how to get
it always right. But for sure, right now, with people
worried about their paychecks, interest rates being high, the world
becoming tougher, you know, we want to know that our
leaders are working full time, flat out and taking it
(10:15):
really seriously. You know, no one's stupid that you've got
to have time to recharge your batteries, but probably it's
a good idea to do that in private and ideally
maybe not in the Maldives or somewhere where people know
that you're going to be there, but just try and
get on with your private life. In private.
Speaker 2 (10:40):
It also feels like a lot of leaders aren't being
voted for on their personal popularity anymore. I guess the
UK is perhaps the best example of this right now.
Labour won that huge majority last year, but it felt
really like a vote against the Conservatives and kicking them
out after fourteen years. And in Australia as well. I
know that Peter Dudden, one of the most unliked politicians,
(11:03):
looks pretty primed to be winning in Australia this year,
and now you're seeing a pretty mixed polling going back
to the UK of Sir Keir Starmer and his government.
Our deputy political editor at The Herald, Thomas Coglan put
it this way last year, saying, it's.
Speaker 1 (11:18):
Just, you know, as an era of like relatively unpopular
people sort of jooking it out for setne.
Speaker 2 (11:23):
Do you think that's fair.
Speaker 1 (11:24):
I think it's it's it's one thing getting into the
team and it's another thing going out to bat.
Speaker 3 (11:30):
Well.
Speaker 1 (11:30):
You know, I don't know what other analogy apart from
from cricket to use, but you know, I think it's
it's a different story getting into office and sometimes you
can you get there because your opponents are making mistake
of the mistake covered mistake. Sometimes it's because people seeing
you hope for change. But once you get the keys
to ten Downing Street, or once you once you once
(11:51):
you get elected, it's about how do you get your
agenda up and running, how do you actually get into action?
And I think that's that's a tricky It's a very
different thing being in opposition to being in power. And
one of the problems about getting into office in democratic
states is that quite often those in the most senior positions,
not just the prime minister, hasn't got management experience, hasn't
(12:14):
had training of how to run big offices and order
the foreign section, all all ministers, and so suddenly you're
caught in the headlights. And then you've got civil servants
who are telling you this is the way you should
do things, and you need to have lots of briefings
and be scared of your own shadow because the press
are going to come after you. I think one of
the challenges in a lot of democracies today is the
lack of connection between the backbone and the brain. So
there are lots of clever leaders around the world, and
(12:36):
there are quite a few brave ones, but you need
both of those characteristics together to work in harmony. And
I think one of the things that's been striking for
sure in the UK is how nervous labor have been.
And when you're sort of worrying about what's going to
go wrong, then the new cycle comes for you and
you get problems about who's paid for your glasses or
your suits, or which constantly be going to. But I
(12:56):
think what all of us here have been waiting for
the last six months is to really see the new
government set out its stall of what it thinks its
priorities are. Where where do they think that the UK
needs to be in twenty thirty five. I mean, as
it happens, I was at a speech of David Lamio,
Foreign Secretary in the UK, talking exactly in these terms,
but that that's the first time I've heard him or
a senior government minister here even kind of engage with
(13:18):
that since since the election. And as that's very similar
to Australia, very similar to New Zealand and plenty of
other countries too. I mean last year our French cousins
across the water here from us in the UK, they
managed to have four prime ministers, which it even beats
the British record where we had three two years ago
with Liz Truss, Boris Johnson and Rishie Sunak. So, you know,
I think that that turbulence at the top speaks to
(13:40):
the fact that you know, there's a real sense of
uncertainty and you're you know, you're worried about playing for
your place and again, whatever sport you might like, you know,
if you're nervous about being kicked out of the team,
then then you never perform as well as if you
if you know you're going to be in for a while,
and you know that that's something that hasn't quite fired
here in the UK since the election.
Speaker 5 (14:02):
The thesis going into the election amongst the chattering class
of which I'm a member here was that the red
states were getting redder and the blue states were getting bluer.
That should not be completely false. Almost every state, I
think except one, moved somewhat to the right. Some of
them moved very very hard to the right, including California,
New York, New Jersey. Look at Donald Trump only lost
(14:22):
New Jersey by five percentage points. I mean, that's fewer
than he lost in Virginia four years ago.
Speaker 2 (14:32):
Where does this shift I guess in going towards the
far right or right or people getting fed up with
governments who aren't particularly hitting goals. I guess using another
sporting analogy, How does that sit with historical context? Have
we seen big swings like this in the past.
Speaker 1 (14:50):
Well, I mean the most time in history people didn't
get a chance to vote for their leaders. You know,
you had someone who was a tribal chief or a
king who you decided what was right for you, and
usually started by what was right for them and then
filtering things downwards. So you know, you've got lots of
times when that happens. I mean, you know the twentieth century,
you know, as rights got extended. I mean, you know,
(15:12):
we sometimes forget how recent full voting is. I mean,
women weren't allowed to vote in the UK until after
the First World War had ended. Women in France weren't
allowed to go to work without written authority from their
husbands until the nineteen sixties. So you know, the idea
that that of equalities and of freedoms and are be
able to choose your leaders. You know, you could take
(15:32):
the view as a historian like I do that, it's
quite unusual and it's quite it's quite modern. I mean,
what's interesting, I think is that there are countries where
the right has been booted out, like in Poland, Centrist
party ader Donald Tusk pushed out the far right, and
the first thing that they've been trying, the first thing
they did as when they got into power, was to say, look,
(15:53):
judge us on what we do, and if we solve
the kinds of problems about things like people worried about migration,
economic growth, pluralism, trying to tone down some of the
more tricky and poisonous debates about identities and you know,
and culture wars. Then if you can do that and
have rational conversations for people you don't agree with, but
(16:13):
to do so in a mature way, then then then
the voters fall in behind you because they see what
you're trying to do, and so that there are ways
that that can happen. But I mean, I don't think
you need me to remind what happens when you get
populism into power, and that starts with you know, obviously
starts with Germany the nineteen thirties, but you know that's
(16:33):
what the Russian Revolution did too. That's what happened with
Mao as well in China. That's why we Paul Potts
in Cambodia. You know, that's what happens with men is
in Ethiopia. And if you have strong men, and they
typically are men who get into power, then you can
you can you can persuade your followers to inflict terrible
things on people who look different, worship in a different way,
(16:55):
or who they're not part of your your plans. So,
you know, I think we need to be care in
protecting freedoms and democracies. But you know, when you have
the richest man in the world owning a major social
media platform and trying to dislodge prime ministers and elected states,
then you can see that the tools we've got, you know,
we're like teenage we're like teenagers. We don't know what
our limits are. And until those things get resolved, you know,
(17:16):
then I think there's still more of this kind of
uncertainty to come.
Speaker 2 (17:20):
What do you think the future looks like for those
good looking, globally popular politicians.
Speaker 1 (17:25):
Well, it's a gentle reminder to listeners in New Zealand
that most of the world don't live in democracies. The
pushback against democracy for the last fifteen years is every
single year the world's become less free. So the default
we all think is that everybody in the world wants
to be like us, admires our systems and so on.
And if you have that kind of system where people
vote for you, if you're charming, young, handsome, beautiful, charming,
(17:48):
that goes a long way. But you know, content is
more important than what you look like. And I don't
think the voters are that stupid that, you know, if
Taylor Swift stands for office, or you know, take your
pick of who you think is the best looking, most charming,
you need to be able to back it up with results.
And you know, if you can't do that, it doesn't
matter how charming you are or otherwise. It's all about outcomes.
(18:10):
I mean, in fact, I had a charity dinner with
Alistair Campbell, who does a very very successful podcast globally
it's not just in the UK, called The Rest Is Politics,
and you know he's been he was involved as Tony
Bless sort of gatekeeper and media manager. And you know,
one of the things that he was talking about is
how important is to have an agenda that you set
out how you have to be brave. But you know,
(18:30):
and if you don't do that then then then it's
quite right that you lose your place in the queue.
You know, these are these are tricky times. But the
charm of a photogenic young leader. That's great as long
as the photogenetic young leader delivers results. If they don't,
then they're just a photogenet young leader.
Speaker 2 (18:47):
Thanks for joining us, Peter.
Speaker 1 (18:49):
Absolute pleasure, Chelsea. Thanks for having me.
Speaker 2 (18:54):
That's it for this episode of the Front Page. You
can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage
at enzdherld dot co dot nz. The Front Page is
produced by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin, who is also
a sound engineer. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to the Front
Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts, and
(19:17):
tune in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.
Jilda.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
I'm Chelsea Daniels and This is the Front Page, a
daily podcast presented by The New Zealand Herald. Earlier this month,
Justin Trudeau resigned as Canada's Prime Minister, marking the end
of his nine years in office. Trudeau was also one
(00:26):
of the last leaders standing from an era of younger
left leaning or liberal politicians. Alongside the likes of Finland's
Son of Maarn and our own Jacindra Dern, who garnered
global attention for bringing a fresher approach to politics, that
era seems well and truly over. Last year, more than
(00:49):
sixty countries went to the polls, and many countries saw
voters swing to the right or voting against incumbent governments
rather than necessarily voting in favor of the opposition. Peter
Frankopan is an author and professor of global history at
Oxford University and joined us on the Front Page last
year to preview the year of elections. He joins us
(01:14):
today on the Front Page to discuss the shifting sense
of global politics. Peter, I've seen some commentary around Justin
Trudeau's resignation as being the latest casualty of the pronounced
shift to the right taking place in many Western democracies.
Do you think that's fair.
Speaker 1 (01:35):
That's a great question. It's so hard to generalize, you know,
we see these patterns and assume that everything must be
the same in every single country. I think what is
interesting is that this year that's just gone by, twenty
twenty four was the year in which more people voted
than at any time ever in human history. And one
of the themes that was consistent around the world was
it was almost impossible for a party to stay in power.
(01:58):
It didn't matter whether you were left or right. Voters
felt that they're not being well served by the people
who they put into put into office. So some of it,
I think is about the big the bigger picture about
what's actually going on. Is it that people don't like Trudeau?
Is it that people don't like the right the left?
Is it populism? And I guess one of the things
that's really important is that we're living in an age
of revolutions, but we're also in an age of transitions.
(02:21):
You know, whatever your political persuasions or views, you know,
we've got obviously a major climate reorganization, these new technologies
that you know, we don't quite know how they're going
to change the world around us. We've got demographics that
are changing quite quickly, a big shift of political and
economic power, lots of states that are more ambitious than
they maybe used to be. And I guess in that
(02:43):
sort of sense of uncertainty, you want someone who's going
to set a course for you and has a vision
that says, this is what's going on and this is
what the future lies in store. And I think one
of the challenges a lot of politicians have had is
that they're not used to having to take that long
term view. So I don't know whether you could use
what's happening in Canada to judge these big shifts in
(03:04):
different parts of the world, but I think that there's
you know, people are not very happy right now. You know,
it's very hard to see a country anywhere on the
planet where people are really pleased with their leadership. And
that's not just in democracies too. But you know, it's
all about fundamentals, and if you think that tomorrow is
going to be better than today, you're much more forgiving. But
I think in most parts of the world, people think
(03:25):
that the world and tomorrow is going to be more
scary and worse.
Speaker 3 (03:32):
Every morning I've woken up as Prime Minister, I've been
inspired by the resilience, the generosity and the determination of Canadians.
It is the driving force of every single day I
have the privilege of serving in this office. That is
why since twenty fifteen, I've fought for this country for you.
Speaker 2 (03:58):
Well, going back to twenty fifteen, when Trudeau became Canada's
Prime minister, I remember how much excitement there was on
social media about this, you know, good looking, well spoken,
fresh faced politician coming onto the world stage. And we
saw that actually again two years later here in New
Zealand when Jacindra Ardrn became our Prime minister. What was
it about that time do you think that led to
(04:18):
that global excitement in these types of I guess people's politicians.
Speaker 1 (04:23):
I think ten years ago, you know, we were coming
out of the horrors of the Great Financial Crisis, you know,
people feeling that that you know, maybe the all the
generations had messed stuff up for us, and there was
a kind of you know the freshness of people like
Jacinda Adrn and Justin Trudeau, you know, David Cameron and
Nick Klegg. They were all young as leaders. You know,
(04:43):
Cameron had never had a government post, never had been
a shadow and never even been a shadow minister before
he became primes here in the UK twenty ten. And
I think there was just a lot there was something
in the air that people felt that it was really
exciting that there were these new telephones we could all connect,
you know, the idea that there were new ways that
you could share information on Twitter. And now a lot
(05:05):
of those things that we all thought were going to
be exciting look like they're slightly poisonous or toxic, you know,
the social media. We sort of are aware that that's
really bad for young people and their sort of interactions
with each other, completely compulsive and in fact, just over
the water from you guys, Australia banned social media for
young people. The idea that we were going to have
(05:26):
automation and robotics that will make our lives easier. People
are now worrying about how they're actually going to pay
their bills if we all get replaced by by robots.
But I think there was something about that first wave
of a new, brave, new world that we sort of
slightly got wrong, that we weren't all going to sit
around the campfire and hold hands and sing songs and
all get rich and old together. Suddenly the world looks
(05:47):
a lot more dangerous. But I think there was a
moment ten years ago of optimism, hope, and younger leaders
who could sort of frame what they thought was going
to happen. You know, Barack Obama was part of that
story too. Looking back on it, I wonder how many
of those leaders we all thought look the part, and
we could all imagine them dropping in for dinner with
us and sharing a drink and having a good chat
about lots of different things. How many of them were
(06:09):
quite superficial and actually under delivered. I think that that's
quite a long list. Macro probably is joining that club
at the moment, as well as a lot of leaders
around the world. And there was something of the kind
of of an excitement a decade ago that's not here Today.
Speaker 4 (06:25):
All ten of the world's most populated countries half leaders
or a leader elect over the age of seventy. Compare
that to a decade ago when that was true for
only one country.
Speaker 5 (06:35):
Well more than half of the world at this point
lives in a country where a leader is over seventy.
Speaker 4 (06:40):
And those leaders are on average more than forty years
older than their population's median age.
Speaker 2 (06:47):
Well, when we spoke to you last and you mentioned
this before, it was the year of elections. Over sixty
countries went to the polls last year and there were
some left leaning or liberal victories, which will get too so,
but the big trend was a shift to the right,
or often the far right. We saw what's leading this
shift to embracing these populist leaders.
Speaker 1 (07:05):
Do you think, oh, people want simple answers, that's it.
You know, you people have lost lost the patience to
hear that problems are complex. So someone who stands up
and gives a one line answer saying, you know, it's
all about immigration, that's just stopped people coming. That sort
of sounds simple, and it sounds that, you know, it's dramatic,
and it sounds like it's action. One of the problems
with populist is that they overpromise and then under deliver,
(07:28):
you know, because these problems are complex and it's very
hard to have a single solution. But you know, I
think that that people have got frustrated with the lack
of action, and you know, buy and large. What tends
to happen as a historian, and I'm not here to
defend the far right far left. You know, obvious you
probably could imagine when we met Chelsea pretty pretty centrist
in wanting to hear lots of opinions and will split
(07:49):
the difference down the middle, but buy in larger habits
In history is populists who promise action and promise results
tend to make complicated issues worse rather than better. So
you know, it's a real challenge for democracies that we
find leaders who can actually make improvements and who actually
understand how difficult the job is and can explain that
and communicate it to voters. And you know, if you
(08:10):
can do that, voters are not stupid. Often they're smarter
than the politicians they put into office. But it require
requires a special ability to be able to communicate and
to get people to trust you. And they'll trust you
if they can see that you're working hard. They can
trust you if they think that you are really getting
stuck in. And one of the problems that people like
Trudeau had was that, you know, if you get photographed
dancing at a Taylor Swift concert while people worrying about
(08:33):
about paying the bills, you know, it's not a great look.
And if you lose you know, if you if you
lose that common touch, you lose the dressing room. And
when that happens, you know you're you're looking for a
new job.
Speaker 2 (08:43):
Yeah, Like, do you think that cultivating that global online attention?
You mentioned him at the Taylor Swift concert.
Speaker 4 (08:52):
Luzeal And five Minister just send Ardern, what are you
doing here?
Speaker 1 (08:56):
Saved my name?
Speaker 2 (08:57):
I came out.
Speaker 1 (08:58):
I thought, that's how the show.
Speaker 5 (08:59):
Works, so right right, that's how Jeff Poblum always.
Speaker 2 (09:02):
Gets in here. Letting yourself become a celebrity. Does that
do more harm than good long term?
Speaker 1 (09:10):
I guess so. I mean, God, God knows what you
and I would do if we were Prime Minister and
Foreign Minister in New Zealand. If you get offered a ticket,
or you even even I dare say even you guys
in New Zealand occasionally have to buy your own tickets
rather than get give them for free. It's quite hard
to live your life constantly in public under public pressure.
But you do need to have quite good judgment. I
mean that I think is the key to to you know,
(09:32):
having a happy relationship at home, to being a parent,
to being a child. So you know, we all have
friends who've just got some of them got really good judgment,
and unfortunately we've all got a few friends who've got
really bad judgment. But you know, you want someone who's
able to recognize that they sometimes have to change how
they're doing things. And you know, it's hard if you're
if you're a celebrity and people are always either saying
(09:53):
good things about your bad things about you, and it's
it's it's hard to live your life where you're being
judged all the time. But that's what happens when you
work for the people who vote for you. And you know,
I think it's a tricky one about how to get
it always right. But for sure, right now, with people
worried about their paychecks, interest rates being high, the world
becoming tougher, you know, we want to know that our
leaders are working full time, flat out and taking it
(10:15):
really seriously. You know, no one's stupid that you've got
to have time to recharge your batteries, but probably it's
a good idea to do that in private and ideally
maybe not in the Maldives or somewhere where people know
that you're going to be there, but just try and
get on with your private life. In private.
Speaker 2 (10:40):
It also feels like a lot of leaders aren't being
voted for on their personal popularity anymore. I guess the
UK is perhaps the best example of this right now.
Labour won that huge majority last year, but it felt
really like a vote against the Conservatives and kicking them
out after fourteen years. And in Australia as well. I
know that Peter Dudden, one of the most unliked politicians,
(11:03):
looks pretty primed to be winning in Australia this year,
and now you're seeing a pretty mixed polling going back
to the UK of Sir Keir Starmer and his government.
Our deputy political editor at The Herald, Thomas Coglan put
it this way last year, saying, it's.
Speaker 1 (11:18):
Just, you know, as an era of like relatively unpopular
people sort of jooking it out for setne.
Speaker 2 (11:23):
Do you think that's fair.
Speaker 1 (11:24):
I think it's it's it's one thing getting into the
team and it's another thing going out to bat.
Speaker 3 (11:30):
Well.
Speaker 1 (11:30):
You know, I don't know what other analogy apart from
from cricket to use, but you know, I think it's
it's a different story getting into office and sometimes you
can you get there because your opponents are making mistake
of the mistake covered mistake. Sometimes it's because people seeing
you hope for change. But once you get the keys
to ten Downing Street, or once you once you once
(11:51):
you get elected, it's about how do you get your
agenda up and running, how do you actually get into action?
And I think that's that's a tricky It's a very
different thing being in opposition to being in power. And
one of the problems about getting into office in democratic
states is that quite often those in the most senior positions,
not just the prime minister, hasn't got management experience, hasn't
(12:14):
had training of how to run big offices and order
the foreign section, all all ministers, and so suddenly you're
caught in the headlights. And then you've got civil servants
who are telling you this is the way you should
do things, and you need to have lots of briefings
and be scared of your own shadow because the press
are going to come after you. I think one of
the challenges in a lot of democracies today is the
lack of connection between the backbone and the brain. So
there are lots of clever leaders around the world, and
(12:36):
there are quite a few brave ones, but you need
both of those characteristics together to work in harmony. And
I think one of the things that's been striking for
sure in the UK is how nervous labor have been.
And when you're sort of worrying about what's going to
go wrong, then the new cycle comes for you and
you get problems about who's paid for your glasses or
your suits, or which constantly be going to. But I
(12:56):
think what all of us here have been waiting for
the last six months is to really see the new
government set out its stall of what it thinks its
priorities are. Where where do they think that the UK
needs to be in twenty thirty five. I mean, as
it happens, I was at a speech of David Lamio,
Foreign Secretary in the UK, talking exactly in these terms,
but that that's the first time I've heard him or
a senior government minister here even kind of engage with
(13:18):
that since since the election. And as that's very similar
to Australia, very similar to New Zealand and plenty of
other countries too. I mean last year our French cousins
across the water here from us in the UK, they
managed to have four prime ministers, which it even beats
the British record where we had three two years ago
with Liz Truss, Boris Johnson and Rishie Sunak. So, you know,
I think that that turbulence at the top speaks to
(13:40):
the fact that you know, there's a real sense of
uncertainty and you're you know, you're worried about playing for
your place and again, whatever sport you might like, you know,
if you're nervous about being kicked out of the team,
then then you never perform as well as if you
if you know you're going to be in for a while,
and you know that that's something that hasn't quite fired
here in the UK since the election.
Speaker 5 (14:02):
The thesis going into the election amongst the chattering class
of which I'm a member here was that the red
states were getting redder and the blue states were getting bluer.
That should not be completely false. Almost every state, I
think except one, moved somewhat to the right. Some of
them moved very very hard to the right, including California,
New York, New Jersey. Look at Donald Trump only lost
(14:22):
New Jersey by five percentage points. I mean, that's fewer
than he lost in Virginia four years ago.
Speaker 2 (14:32):
Where does this shift I guess in going towards the
far right or right or people getting fed up with
governments who aren't particularly hitting goals. I guess using another
sporting analogy, How does that sit with historical context? Have
we seen big swings like this in the past.
Speaker 1 (14:50):
Well, I mean the most time in history people didn't
get a chance to vote for their leaders. You know,
you had someone who was a tribal chief or a
king who you decided what was right for you, and
usually started by what was right for them and then
filtering things downwards. So you know, you've got lots of
times when that happens. I mean, you know the twentieth century,
you know, as rights got extended. I mean, you know,
(15:12):
we sometimes forget how recent full voting is. I mean,
women weren't allowed to vote in the UK until after
the First World War had ended. Women in France weren't
allowed to go to work without written authority from their
husbands until the nineteen sixties. So you know, the idea
that that of equalities and of freedoms and are be
able to choose your leaders. You know, you could take
(15:32):
the view as a historian like I do that, it's
quite unusual and it's quite it's quite modern. I mean,
what's interesting, I think is that there are countries where
the right has been booted out, like in Poland, Centrist
party ader Donald Tusk pushed out the far right, and
the first thing that they've been trying, the first thing
they did as when they got into power, was to say, look,
(15:53):
judge us on what we do, and if we solve
the kinds of problems about things like people worried about migration,
economic growth, pluralism, trying to tone down some of the
more tricky and poisonous debates about identities and you know,
and culture wars. Then if you can do that and
have rational conversations for people you don't agree with, but
(16:13):
to do so in a mature way, then then then
the voters fall in behind you because they see what
you're trying to do, and so that there are ways
that that can happen. But I mean, I don't think
you need me to remind what happens when you get
populism into power, and that starts with you know, obviously
starts with Germany the nineteen thirties, but you know that's
(16:33):
what the Russian Revolution did too. That's what happened with
Mao as well in China. That's why we Paul Potts
in Cambodia. You know, that's what happens with men is
in Ethiopia. And if you have strong men, and they
typically are men who get into power, then you can
you can you can persuade your followers to inflict terrible
things on people who look different, worship in a different way,
(16:55):
or who they're not part of your your plans. So,
you know, I think we need to be care in
protecting freedoms and democracies. But you know, when you have
the richest man in the world owning a major social
media platform and trying to dislodge prime ministers and elected states,
then you can see that the tools we've got, you know,
we're like teenage we're like teenagers. We don't know what
our limits are. And until those things get resolved, you know,
(17:16):
then I think there's still more of this kind of
uncertainty to come.
Speaker 2 (17:20):
What do you think the future looks like for those
good looking, globally popular politicians.
Speaker 1 (17:25):
Well, it's a gentle reminder to listeners in New Zealand
that most of the world don't live in democracies. The
pushback against democracy for the last fifteen years is every
single year the world's become less free. So the default
we all think is that everybody in the world wants
to be like us, admires our systems and so on.
And if you have that kind of system where people
vote for you, if you're charming, young, handsome, beautiful, charming,
(17:48):
that goes a long way. But you know, content is
more important than what you look like. And I don't
think the voters are that stupid that, you know, if
Taylor Swift stands for office, or you know, take your
pick of who you think is the best looking, most charming,
you need to be able to back it up with results.
And you know, if you can't do that, it doesn't
matter how charming you are or otherwise. It's all about outcomes.
(18:10):
I mean, in fact, I had a charity dinner with
Alistair Campbell, who does a very very successful podcast globally
it's not just in the UK, called The Rest Is Politics,
and you know he's been he was involved as Tony
Bless sort of gatekeeper and media manager. And you know,
one of the things that he was talking about is
how important is to have an agenda that you set
out how you have to be brave. But you know,
(18:30):
and if you don't do that then then then it's
quite right that you lose your place in the queue.
You know, these are these are tricky times. But the
charm of a photogenic young leader. That's great as long
as the photogenetic young leader delivers results. If they don't,
then they're just a photogenet young leader.
Speaker 2 (18:47):
Thanks for joining us, Peter.
Speaker 1 (18:49):
Absolute pleasure, Chelsea. Thanks for having me.
Speaker 2 (18:54):
That's it for this episode of the Front Page. You
can read more about today's stories and extensive news coverage
at enzdherld dot co dot nz. The Front Page is
produced by Ethan Sills and Richard Martin, who is also
a sound engineer. I'm Chelsea Daniels. Subscribe to the Front
Page on iHeartRadio or wherever you get your podcasts, and
(19:17):
tune in tomorrow for another look behind the headlines.
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