October 1, 2025 • 11 mins
THE BEST BITS IN A SILLIER PACKAGE (from Thursday's Mike Hosking Breakfast) So... What's Changed Exactly?/But What Would Treasury Know?/Don't Peak Too Soon On OCR/Even Richer?/The Definition of Over-Tourism
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Speaker 1 (00:09):
You're listening to a podcast from news Talk, said, b
follow this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
Rerap.
Speaker 3 (00:25):
Okay, then welcome to the rewrap for Thursday. All the best,
but's from the Mic Hosking breakfast on news Talk said,
be in a sillier package. I am blenhrten today This
treasury report, Oh dear ocr next week. Why are we
talking about it already? Personal wealth? You're feeling rich? More
(00:48):
stats on exactly how rich you should be feeling. And
then now after Spain and Italy complaining about there over tourism,
turns out Holland's got it as well. But for any
of that, yes, so the power supply business yesterday, that's
all fixed, cheap power all round, and there's going to
be plenty of it.
Speaker 2 (01:08):
Get the detail of the power reforms we dealt with
them yesterday. Let's deal with the politics of this and
a habit the government has that is hurting them. There's
a pattern here, the patterns the government tell us there's
something wrong. Could be banks, could be supermarkets, could be
power companies, could be airlines. The last government had the
same problem they took on petrol stations. The concern is
partially real. It's real because one there might be you know,
bits and pieces of the sector that could do with
(01:30):
some tightening or tidying, and to there's almost always consumer concerned. Now,
the consumer ankst is part of the problem because the
consumer will always see a problem, whether there is one
or not. That's why lazy journalists do vox pops. Is
butter too expensive? The answer will always be yes. Doesn't
mean that's a problem the government can solve. So having
stated the problem, you've then created the expectation that you
(01:50):
will do something about it. Trouble with yesterday's power deal
was the obligatory report suggested more than actually eventuated by
the time they got around to making a final decision.
Hence the reputation and the reputation is of a government
that talks a lot, does a lot, but the a
lot doesn't amount to much. Yesterday was your classic example.
The EA gets clearer writing instructions big deal. The industry
(02:12):
had a perception removed that the government don't want to
get into big projects. While a phone call would have
sorted that one, I would have thought we are to
import in several years some LPG great. Nothing wrong with
any of that, and it would have landed well if
they hadn't given you the sense that reform capital letters
was on the way. Personally, I've never thought the industry
is that broken. I mean, labor on their oil and
(02:32):
gas debarcle hobbled us for several years while we wait
for the windmills. But a cold bridge is that gap.
Like butter and indeed airlines, there is generally logic as
to why things are the way they are. The report
fell flat, not because what was in it made no
sense or hurt an industry, but because it had a
is that it kind of feel about it, and it
had that feel about it because the government hadn't worked
(02:55):
out the balance between hype and reality of their passion projects.
Where trouble sits allegedly banks, airlines, supermarkets, or power, namely
the one that materially is different because of what they did,
not what they said politically, that's their failure.
Speaker 3 (03:10):
I feel like I'm getting more power shouts than I
used to. I don't know who you're with. I'm with
Genesis and they every now and again you get an
email out of the blue saying you've got another hour
or four hours that you can get for free at
some stage. So that's quite good. It's rewrap okay. So yeah,
(03:31):
the green shoots, they've been well and truly sprayed, and
they're starting to die back apparently, I think.
Speaker 2 (03:38):
According to Treasury, Treasury have done one of their long
term reports. They look out forty years, and the thrust
of what they say is important. But the big question
is what, if anything, is to be done about it. So,
in civil terms, we spend too much. As a country,
we owe too much, and no one is really doing
much about any of that. Even this government, a conservative government,
is running a deficit. They spend more than they make.
(04:00):
Not just that, but each year they said that they
would change that, they haven't. We're out to twenty eight
twenty nine currently before we get back to an annual
suit plus and even then it's touch and go. Oh
they've got excuses. Of course, they've got excuses. We always
have excuses. As Treasury says, in the past twenty years,
we have had favorable tailwinds economically, and yet the debt
is still higher than forecast. One economist said this report
(04:22):
should be on the reading list of every one of us.
Sadly it won't be. He also says he doesn't think
politicians are going to be able to make these changes
needed until the voting public is behind those choices. So
two problems they are. One, we aren't reading the report
and two I suspect even if we did read it,
many wouldn't really be into the sort of fiscal discipline
required to sort ourselves out. We pay closing in on
ten billion dollars a year on interest on our debt,
(04:47):
just on the interest twenty eight million dollars a day.
Every day debt goes nowhere, just the interest in Yet
every time a government goes to save you can hear
the screams, can't you count those complaining?
Speaker 1 (04:56):
Here?
Speaker 2 (04:56):
The endless excuses as to why it shouldn't be them
If we don't change this. The report says we will
have debt rising to two hundred percent of GDP by
twenty sixty five. It's currently forty five, so we're going
from forty five to two hundred percent would literally ruin us.
So it's one of life's great quandaries, isn't it. We've
got a problem, a growing problem. We know about the problem,
(05:17):
We actually know what the solutions of the problem is.
Do we ignore it or tackle it? If we do
how are we even capable of trying who's going to
lead that charge? Or do we simply wait for next
year's report to confirm that between now and then nothing
will change.
Speaker 3 (05:31):
I feel like Treasury is not always right about things,
and sometimes like their super not ride. So I'm not
just not quite sure whether we want to take any
notice of any of their mornings or reports or like
the weather. Really the rewrap, I mean, Andrew Caller has
been telling us all this week he's not talking about
green shoets anymore, which is good because I'm banning the praise. Now.
(05:56):
What he's saying he's seeing flickers. That's exciting, isn't it.
Speaker 2 (06:00):
Next week the whole country is going to be moderately
exercised on what are the Reserve bent going to do?
It's Wednesday. It is the second to last meeting of
the Christian hawksby still in charge, although he knows now
he doesn't get the job and he's leaving the bank.
I don't know whether that sort of effects his mood
and the Monetary Committee's mood, but nevertheless they're going to
come with certainly twenty five. The debate is now on
as to whether it's fifty. So who says what Nick Tuntley,
(06:23):
who's at the ASB. He raises quite rightly the fact
that New Zealand dollars fall into a multi year low,
and that has got to be of concern to the
Monetary Policy Committee. I would have thought recovery is taking longer.
The economy feels, says Nick, like it needs a bit
of a circuit breaker. No kidding. You could have argued
that back in June and July when the Reserve Bank
(06:46):
we're doing nothing. So have they suddenly panicked? Have they
suddenly gone? Jeez? Were taking heat?
Speaker 3 (06:52):
Here?
Speaker 2 (06:53):
Can we go fifty? The RB needs to hit the
gas harder, he says, and I think on that he's right.
B and Z Dug Steel he says, the right cuts
are done. Deal, we're sticking with our central view of
two more twenty fives. There's a very real risk that
a battle shy Reserve Bank suffice Zick a shock from
Q two GDP. Good point. Not willing to wait for
the Q three GDP out turn to be published. So
(07:15):
cuts the rate fifty? Now? Is that a risk? Or
do you go go for it? Key piece of data
they're going to be waiting for is the NZ Economic Research,
the Institute of quarterly Survey of Business Opinion that comes
out the day before, so this coming Tuesday. In other words,
what's that say. I can tell you what it's going
to say, and if it says what we think it's
going to say, which is it's miserable, they need to
(07:35):
do something about A and Z. Sharon zol As. She
says both options have pros and cons, which is true.
That's the economy overall. We see the value of optionality
at twenty five. So from those three economists you got
two twenty five in fifty. We wait and see.
Speaker 3 (07:50):
Not sure how Nick Tuffley's circuit breaker matches up with
these flickers. Sounds like a way to put a flicker out.
So the less we hear from him the better. In fact,
unless we hear anybody talking about the ocr towards each
of the ocr day, I think they're going to ban
that too.
Speaker 1 (08:07):
The rewrap.
Speaker 3 (08:08):
So more stats, which may or may not be believable
this time on where we are in terms of personal wealth.
So it's another one of these ones that is, oh,
I might explain.
Speaker 2 (08:20):
It if this means anything to you. The Stats Department
provided us with a reminder of how rich we're not
if you want to be in the top fifty percent,
which I would have thought, just such a depressing if
you're in the top fifty percent. So, in other words,
is just half of you half you are, half you aren't.
I mean, I'll get to the top one percent, that's
quite exciting, But the top fifty percent. Guess what I am?
I'm in the top fifty percent? Are you so exciting?
(08:42):
You need to be worth And this once again is this,
Sell everything you've got, get rid of all your debt.
How much you got left. To be in the top
fifty percent, you need one hundred and thirty eight hundred
and fifty dollars. If you don't have that, you're in
the bottom fifty percent. That'll be a thoroughly depressing day.
Top ten percent you need one point two two six million.
Top five percent you need one point eight eighty three.
(09:03):
Now that's interesting. I would have thought that's not a
big gap between the top ten and the top five
one point two to one point eight. Top one's a
whole different kettle fish.
Speaker 3 (09:11):
Though.
Speaker 2 (09:11):
To be in the top one percent, you need four
point seven three five million dollars. The median of the
top one percent. This is where you get to the heavyweights.
The median of the top one percent to seven point one.
Three years ago that was eleven point two. So to
say the richer getting richer is simply not true. They're not,
but at least they're not the bottom fifty percent.
Speaker 3 (09:33):
Nothing the rest of us like hearing more than somebody
who's in the one percent, presumably telling everybody else how
they're not getting richer. Better ways. Feel's pretty cool the rewrap.
If you can afford it, you can go on a trip.
And it seems like everybody's now going to the Netherlands,
(09:56):
or at least one specific place in the Netherlands. What
is that place? I've never heard of it.
Speaker 2 (10:01):
The Dutch Zasa Chance. It's famous, very picturesque sort of place.
Nobody he lives there. There's got a population of about
one hundred people, but two and a half million people
visited every year. It's got a lot of wind mills,
very pretty. So they've started to charge people for that
and think that's a good idea. So about thirty five
forty quid to go there. Most people don't think. Apparently
(10:22):
the tourists don't think because the population is so small.
They think it's just like a movie set. So they
wandering through the gardens, and they walk into people's houses,
and they urinate in the gardens, and they knock on
the doors, and they take pictures, and they use selfie
sticks to peek inside the houses. Their surprises a few locals.
So the locals are a bit sick about that, so
they start charging people.
Speaker 3 (10:42):
So the urinating thing, urinating everywhere, that's a bit uncalled for.
But and saying that I've got on good authority that
when you go to somewhere like Rome, for example, there
aren't any public toilets anywhere, or very few. So what
do you expect people to do? I mean, you expect
(11:04):
them to have a little bit of human decency, I suppose,
but you know, get caught out with no public lou
sounds like this place needs a few more public lows.
That's what. Maybe that's the way we solve the over
tourism problem. A few more public lows, blue sky ideas.
For me, that's what you get in the rewrap. I'll
(11:26):
be bet with some more inspirational thinking like that tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (11:29):
But well, for more from news Talks at b listen
live on air or online and keep our shows with
you wherever you go with our podcasts on iHeartRadio,
You're listening to a podcast from news Talk, said, b
follow this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
Rerap.
Speaker 3 (00:25):
Okay, then welcome to the rewrap for Thursday. All the best,
but's from the Mic Hosking breakfast on news Talk said,
be in a sillier package. I am blenhrten today This
treasury report, Oh dear ocr next week. Why are we
talking about it already? Personal wealth? You're feeling rich? More
(00:48):
stats on exactly how rich you should be feeling. And
then now after Spain and Italy complaining about there over tourism,
turns out Holland's got it as well. But for any
of that, yes, so the power supply business yesterday, that's
all fixed, cheap power all round, and there's going to
be plenty of it.
Speaker 2 (01:08):
Get the detail of the power reforms we dealt with
them yesterday. Let's deal with the politics of this and
a habit the government has that is hurting them. There's
a pattern here, the patterns the government tell us there's
something wrong. Could be banks, could be supermarkets, could be
power companies, could be airlines. The last government had the
same problem they took on petrol stations. The concern is
partially real. It's real because one there might be you know,
bits and pieces of the sector that could do with
(01:30):
some tightening or tidying, and to there's almost always consumer concerned. Now,
the consumer ankst is part of the problem because the
consumer will always see a problem, whether there is one
or not. That's why lazy journalists do vox pops. Is
butter too expensive? The answer will always be yes. Doesn't
mean that's a problem the government can solve. So having
stated the problem, you've then created the expectation that you
(01:50):
will do something about it. Trouble with yesterday's power deal
was the obligatory report suggested more than actually eventuated by
the time they got around to making a final decision.
Hence the reputation and the reputation is of a government
that talks a lot, does a lot, but the a
lot doesn't amount to much. Yesterday was your classic example.
The EA gets clearer writing instructions big deal. The industry
(02:12):
had a perception removed that the government don't want to
get into big projects. While a phone call would have
sorted that one, I would have thought we are to
import in several years some LPG great. Nothing wrong with
any of that, and it would have landed well if
they hadn't given you the sense that reform capital letters
was on the way. Personally, I've never thought the industry
is that broken. I mean, labor on their oil and
(02:32):
gas debarcle hobbled us for several years while we wait
for the windmills. But a cold bridge is that gap.
Like butter and indeed airlines, there is generally logic as
to why things are the way they are. The report
fell flat, not because what was in it made no
sense or hurt an industry, but because it had a
is that it kind of feel about it, and it
had that feel about it because the government hadn't worked
(02:55):
out the balance between hype and reality of their passion projects.
Where trouble sits allegedly banks, airlines, supermarkets, or power, namely
the one that materially is different because of what they did,
not what they said politically, that's their failure.
Speaker 3 (03:10):
I feel like I'm getting more power shouts than I
used to. I don't know who you're with. I'm with
Genesis and they every now and again you get an
email out of the blue saying you've got another hour
or four hours that you can get for free at
some stage. So that's quite good. It's rewrap okay. So yeah,
(03:31):
the green shoots, they've been well and truly sprayed, and
they're starting to die back apparently, I think.
Speaker 2 (03:38):
According to Treasury, Treasury have done one of their long
term reports. They look out forty years, and the thrust
of what they say is important. But the big question
is what, if anything, is to be done about it. So,
in civil terms, we spend too much. As a country,
we owe too much, and no one is really doing
much about any of that. Even this government, a conservative government,
is running a deficit. They spend more than they make.
(04:00):
Not just that, but each year they said that they
would change that, they haven't. We're out to twenty eight
twenty nine currently before we get back to an annual
suit plus and even then it's touch and go. Oh
they've got excuses. Of course, they've got excuses. We always
have excuses. As Treasury says, in the past twenty years,
we have had favorable tailwinds economically, and yet the debt
is still higher than forecast. One economist said this report
(04:22):
should be on the reading list of every one of us.
Sadly it won't be. He also says he doesn't think
politicians are going to be able to make these changes
needed until the voting public is behind those choices. So
two problems they are. One, we aren't reading the report
and two I suspect even if we did read it,
many wouldn't really be into the sort of fiscal discipline
required to sort ourselves out. We pay closing in on
ten billion dollars a year on interest on our debt,
(04:47):
just on the interest twenty eight million dollars a day.
Every day debt goes nowhere, just the interest in Yet
every time a government goes to save you can hear
the screams, can't you count those complaining?
Speaker 1 (04:56):
Here?
Speaker 2 (04:56):
The endless excuses as to why it shouldn't be them
If we don't change this. The report says we will
have debt rising to two hundred percent of GDP by
twenty sixty five. It's currently forty five, so we're going
from forty five to two hundred percent would literally ruin us.
So it's one of life's great quandaries, isn't it. We've
got a problem, a growing problem. We know about the problem,
(05:17):
We actually know what the solutions of the problem is.
Do we ignore it or tackle it? If we do
how are we even capable of trying who's going to
lead that charge? Or do we simply wait for next
year's report to confirm that between now and then nothing
will change.
Speaker 3 (05:31):
I feel like Treasury is not always right about things,
and sometimes like their super not ride. So I'm not
just not quite sure whether we want to take any
notice of any of their mornings or reports or like
the weather. Really the rewrap, I mean, Andrew Caller has
been telling us all this week he's not talking about
green shoets anymore, which is good because I'm banning the praise. Now.
(05:56):
What he's saying he's seeing flickers. That's exciting, isn't it.
Speaker 2 (06:00):
Next week the whole country is going to be moderately
exercised on what are the Reserve bent going to do?
It's Wednesday. It is the second to last meeting of
the Christian hawksby still in charge, although he knows now
he doesn't get the job and he's leaving the bank.
I don't know whether that sort of effects his mood
and the Monetary Committee's mood, but nevertheless they're going to
come with certainly twenty five. The debate is now on
as to whether it's fifty. So who says what Nick Tuntley,
(06:23):
who's at the ASB. He raises quite rightly the fact
that New Zealand dollars fall into a multi year low,
and that has got to be of concern to the
Monetary Policy Committee. I would have thought recovery is taking longer.
The economy feels, says Nick, like it needs a bit
of a circuit breaker. No kidding. You could have argued
that back in June and July when the Reserve Bank
(06:46):
we're doing nothing. So have they suddenly panicked? Have they
suddenly gone? Jeez? Were taking heat?
Speaker 3 (06:52):
Here?
Speaker 2 (06:53):
Can we go fifty? The RB needs to hit the
gas harder, he says, and I think on that he's right.
B and Z Dug Steel he says, the right cuts
are done. Deal, we're sticking with our central view of
two more twenty fives. There's a very real risk that
a battle shy Reserve Bank suffice Zick a shock from
Q two GDP. Good point. Not willing to wait for
the Q three GDP out turn to be published. So
(07:15):
cuts the rate fifty? Now? Is that a risk? Or
do you go go for it? Key piece of data
they're going to be waiting for is the NZ Economic Research,
the Institute of quarterly Survey of Business Opinion that comes
out the day before, so this coming Tuesday. In other words,
what's that say. I can tell you what it's going
to say, and if it says what we think it's
going to say, which is it's miserable, they need to
(07:35):
do something about A and Z. Sharon zol As. She
says both options have pros and cons, which is true.
That's the economy overall. We see the value of optionality
at twenty five. So from those three economists you got
two twenty five in fifty. We wait and see.
Speaker 3 (07:50):
Not sure how Nick Tuffley's circuit breaker matches up with
these flickers. Sounds like a way to put a flicker out.
So the less we hear from him the better. In fact,
unless we hear anybody talking about the ocr towards each
of the ocr day, I think they're going to ban
that too.
Speaker 1 (08:07):
The rewrap.
Speaker 3 (08:08):
So more stats, which may or may not be believable
this time on where we are in terms of personal wealth.
So it's another one of these ones that is, oh,
I might explain.
Speaker 2 (08:20):
It if this means anything to you. The Stats Department
provided us with a reminder of how rich we're not
if you want to be in the top fifty percent,
which I would have thought, just such a depressing if
you're in the top fifty percent. So, in other words,
is just half of you half you are, half you aren't.
I mean, I'll get to the top one percent, that's
quite exciting, But the top fifty percent. Guess what I am?
I'm in the top fifty percent? Are you so exciting?
(08:42):
You need to be worth And this once again is this,
Sell everything you've got, get rid of all your debt.
How much you got left. To be in the top
fifty percent, you need one hundred and thirty eight hundred
and fifty dollars. If you don't have that, you're in
the bottom fifty percent. That'll be a thoroughly depressing day.
Top ten percent you need one point two two six million.
Top five percent you need one point eight eighty three.
(09:03):
Now that's interesting. I would have thought that's not a
big gap between the top ten and the top five
one point two to one point eight. Top one's a
whole different kettle fish.
Speaker 3 (09:11):
Though.
Speaker 2 (09:11):
To be in the top one percent, you need four
point seven three five million dollars. The median of the
top one percent. This is where you get to the heavyweights.
The median of the top one percent to seven point one.
Three years ago that was eleven point two. So to
say the richer getting richer is simply not true. They're not,
but at least they're not the bottom fifty percent.
Speaker 3 (09:33):
Nothing the rest of us like hearing more than somebody
who's in the one percent, presumably telling everybody else how
they're not getting richer. Better ways. Feel's pretty cool the rewrap.
If you can afford it, you can go on a trip.
And it seems like everybody's now going to the Netherlands,
(09:56):
or at least one specific place in the Netherlands. What
is that place? I've never heard of it.
Speaker 2 (10:01):
The Dutch Zasa Chance. It's famous, very picturesque sort of place.
Nobody he lives there. There's got a population of about
one hundred people, but two and a half million people
visited every year. It's got a lot of wind mills,
very pretty. So they've started to charge people for that
and think that's a good idea. So about thirty five
forty quid to go there. Most people don't think. Apparently
(10:22):
the tourists don't think because the population is so small.
They think it's just like a movie set. So they
wandering through the gardens, and they walk into people's houses,
and they urinate in the gardens, and they knock on
the doors, and they take pictures, and they use selfie
sticks to peek inside the houses. Their surprises a few locals.
So the locals are a bit sick about that, so
they start charging people.
Speaker 3 (10:42):
So the urinating thing, urinating everywhere, that's a bit uncalled for.
But and saying that I've got on good authority that
when you go to somewhere like Rome, for example, there
aren't any public toilets anywhere, or very few. So what
do you expect people to do? I mean, you expect
(11:04):
them to have a little bit of human decency, I suppose,
but you know, get caught out with no public lou
sounds like this place needs a few more public lows.
That's what. Maybe that's the way we solve the over
tourism problem. A few more public lows, blue sky ideas.
For me, that's what you get in the rewrap. I'll
(11:26):
be bet with some more inspirational thinking like that tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (11:29):
But well, for more from news Talks at b listen
live on air or online and keep our shows with
you wherever you go with our podcasts on iHeartRadio,
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