July 26, 2025 • 41 mins
The median rent has dropped for the first time since 2009.
The nation saw a 0.3% drop over three months, but the hardest hit was Auckland - dropping 2% over the past year.
CEO of Real Estate at Valocity, Helen O'Sullivan, joins Tim Beveridge to discuss what's going on.
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from news Talk said,
be the use just.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
A lit you can start by. You can't start five
without a spot. This King's be higher even if you're
just as message. Just kick getting clear. William's on and
(00:36):
I'm moving round the place. I check my look in
the mirror. I want to change my clothes, my hair,
my face. Nowhere I just leave up the tip like
this is someone having any songwhere? Baby, I just know
(00:57):
you can't start by. I really just wanted to let
that roll for a while. Got a little bit of Bruce.
I mean, this is great ru Springsteen, isn't It's not
sort of you know, there's certain things you've got to
avoid on Bruce Springsteen, like born in the USA and
born to run pats. You know. Yeah, a little bit
of Bruce to get us into the into the next hour.
By the way, this is coming up in the next hour,
(01:20):
we'll have the parents squab with Sharah chat. When talking
about managing your child's first relationships or their relationships, when
do you sort of have to back off and you know,
the public displays of affection, you want to all that
sort of stuff. How do you manage that and as well,
is it okay to tell off other people's kids? But
guess what, you have to wait an hour for this
because right now we are into the one roof radio
(01:43):
show and you can give us a call. And I
we one hundred and eighty ten eighty in text on
nine two nine two. I think I might have said
you can email me various times, but generally emails to
the last results. I might not check the email until
I don't know tomorrow, but you can email Tim be
at NEWSTALKSAIDB dot co dot n Z. And my guest
is she is CEO of real estate at Velocity. That's
(02:05):
with an A, A, C, I T Y. And I
think we can say she's become a bit of a
regular on the show and she's here in persons Helen O. Sullivan, Hello, Helen,
how are you? Tim?
Speaker 3 (02:16):
I am extremely well, thank you, and thank you for
my opening song. That was just rocking.
Speaker 2 (02:20):
That just a lot of Bruce. Oh yeah, hey, just
to remind people about Velocity. What do you guys do?
Speaker 3 (02:31):
So we are a proper tech that we are steeped
in property data. We loves property, we love data. We
got get two together and all is great.
Speaker 2 (02:39):
We loves property and we love data.
Speaker 3 (02:41):
Property and we love data.
Speaker 2 (02:42):
And so the average punter would they what I mean,
who do you provide your services for? What's the purpose?
What's your mission statement?
Speaker 4 (02:50):
Sort of?
Speaker 3 (02:50):
Yeah, So Velocity is the data partner for one Roof.
So we provide vast amounts of truckloads truckloads of fun
and interesting stuff about property because there's lots of other
people that loves property data almost as much as me,
so were the data partner for one roof. We also
provide a product called Velocity Nexus, which is provided to
(03:11):
real estate agents. And so when your real estate agent
is working out what their property is worth and where
they you know, how they can list it for you
and best best sell it, a lot of them will
be using our tools.
Speaker 2 (03:24):
A stupid question. I imagine AI plays a part in
you and what you guys do as well in terms
of analysis and stuff. It's incredibly powerful tool, isn't it?
Speaker 3 (03:31):
One hundred percent? And it's really exciting at the moment
as we work out different ways that we can use
those tools, both to make our processes faster and more accurate,
more you know, and get to the outcomes faster, but
also to add all sorts of things that we've just
never been able to do before. So there's new functionality
and features we are beavering away looking at and it
(03:54):
is real. It's super cool and interesting actually just a
great given value of interesting and I love this stuff,
well one would hope.
Speaker 2 (04:00):
So if you, if you're the boss, look my property
smart where? So what are the sources of data that
you guys? I mean where does it all? Just for
a broader picture? I know we've talked about but it's
always nice for people to know where you're coming from
and what your you know, what your bag is.
Speaker 3 (04:22):
So look, there's a load of sources of data. One
of the key places that property data comes from is
council district valuation role records and they councils have a
function of collecting data about properties and how much they're
solved for and what they're built on and all that
kind of good stuff. But there are seven to your
territorial authorities around New Zealand and they all have data
(04:42):
and they all collect and manage it in different ways,
and so we bring all of that together and mix
and match and combine it. There's also Land Information New
Zealand or LINDS, which has all the title records and
information about services and encumbrances and things like that. We
bring all of that together as well.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
Is it sort of real time or do you get
it in chunks? You know, you'll go out and sort
of you'll have a a download or an upload, or you.
Speaker 3 (05:07):
Know, it's constantly speeding in all the time, daily by
the hour. It's just, you know, we're kind of just
you know, slurping up data from lots of different places
and then mixing and matching and combining and using there's
a huge algorithm that we use that generates in automatic
evaluation mechanisms and it you know, that's just constantly in
(05:27):
play looking for further data points.
Speaker 2 (05:30):
Because we're talking about something that has been reflected in data.
I hope you're not going to tell us it's out
of date, except would ruin wouldn't it? So I wouldn't
do that. This is real pretty recent but national, nationally,
rent has dropped for the first time since two thousand
and nine. So nationally we saw a drop of point
(05:50):
three percent over three months. The hardest hit was Auckland.
I mean, I guess when there are any headlines, Auckland's
always going to be the biggest growth or the biggest hit,
isn't it possibly because of just it? It's always okay,
cancel what I just said. But the hardest hit, the
hardest hit this time was or then dropping two percent
over the past year. What your take on this, as
(06:11):
well as to what your reaction to this is? There
are two questions. Should you be haggling down your rent
with your landlords?
Speaker 1 (06:18):
No?
Speaker 2 (06:18):
How do you resist? How do you go back and
negotiating these things? Or if you've got a good landlord,
you just suck it up and just keep quiet and
hopefully they won't put the rent up for a long time.
But also, if you're an investor, is this just another
piece of bad news? Or a property buyer, anyone who's
interested in the market, what does it mean to you?
I guess what does it mean to you? Helen?
Speaker 3 (06:37):
So look what it means at the moment is that
the rental market has been soft for some time. Talking
to property managers, which I do on a regular basis,
the supply of new tenants has been considerably reduced over
the past a couple of certainly in the last twelve months.
If you look at our net Inwoods Migration, our net
(06:57):
migration figures are the last I've been in a really
long time, and.
Speaker 2 (07:01):
Are they still? Is there still growth? Where we are
we still having net growth and migration?
Speaker 3 (07:06):
I think the net gain is still positive ten fifteen thousand,
Well it's about twenty three.
Speaker 2 (07:13):
Thousand from that, about twenty three five hundred and eighty nine, but.
Speaker 3 (07:17):
Approximately, not round about that. But you know from times
when we were seeing one hundred and twenty thousand, a
net gain of one hundred and twenty thousand people a year,
it is that's an enormous decline and it's only the
inwards flow which is offsetting the growth in the number
of people leaving the country.
Speaker 2 (07:35):
So now I probably need an explainer for this, And
how how can you have rent going down when there
are still more people arriving in the country who obviously
need somewhere to live. I would have thought that as
long as we have positive migration. And by the way, people,
(07:56):
if you're listening, you think God, Tim's being so thick
about this, I'll explain it to him, but Helen might.
But I can't get my head around that if there
are still a net growth, what gives we are still seeing.
Speaker 3 (08:08):
Small increases in the housing supply. So there have been
a number of new bills that have come to market
recently and complete, and there's also a lot of property
that developers were looking to sell and the market has
been pretty quiet at that end of the spectrum, and
as a result, I think a number of developers have
(08:30):
actually released stock to rent it to the rental market,
which they would otherwise be looking at.
Speaker 2 (08:35):
So okay, so there has been the requisite increase to
match that arrival, and maybe then some and a little
bit yeah, okay, so what what what do you put?
What do you put down the drop too? Is it
just the fact that it's sup the good old Keensi
and supply and demand or are there other factors at play?
Speaker 3 (08:53):
There's another factor at play in there as well. I
think it is just incomes are very tight, and so
you reach a level where tenants can't actually afford you know,
renters can't afford to pay anymore. And therefore, if you
are a landlord and you want to get your property occupied,
you have to meet the market. And it's interesting as
a landlord you're meeting the market can be twenty to
(09:15):
fifty dollars a week can make the difference between and
probably renting and not renting, And the reality is it
takes a really long time of an extra twenty or
thirty dollars a week to make up for three or
four weeks empty.
Speaker 2 (09:26):
Yeah, And is that the equation that a lot of
landlords will go through they're thinking, Oh, this person's offer
me a bit less. But hang on a minute. I
think I'd rather have them in my property tomorrow yep,
than leave it another month, two, three, whatever.
Speaker 3 (09:39):
Yeah, And look, that would be That would be the
counsel that I would give to landlords. So we're trying
to rent a property.
Speaker 2 (09:45):
A burden in the hand. Is that where the bird
in the hand is worth? I don't know where the
bird in the hand, but it was worth through in
the bush. In other words, take what you've got in
front of you right now, rather than waiting for what
might be in there.
Speaker 3 (09:55):
Yeah, yeah, you know, and grab it while it's gone.
I don't try, but yes, burd in the hands probably
are far better. That is better.
Speaker 2 (10:06):
I might have to google that to check out the context, right,
but I'm pretty sure a burn the hand is we're
through in the bush.
Speaker 3 (10:11):
Is well, it's test is take it now rather than
hoping for something better.
Speaker 2 (10:15):
Yes, that's right, Not that you're going to get two birds,
You're just going to get one place one probably not.
How does it so? I would guess and you can
tell me if I'm wrong here that the reason for
the change in the data data is that it's not
because people have haggled their rent down. It's because we
(10:36):
have had properties come online and subsequently landlords have dropped
their asking price. So it is important before there's a lag.
Speaker 3 (10:45):
Yeah, that data that we're getting, the MB rent data
is based on new bonds lodged. So if you rent
a property today and your rent is six hundred and
fifty dollars and you lodge the bond for that six fifty,
that is the data that MB is looking is recording there.
So it's only bonds. Is it's based off boonds. That's
(11:05):
where the comes from. That is only going to be
new properties rented. So if you're in a property and
you've been there for three years and the rent goes
up by twenty five dollars a week, that's generally not
captured in their NB data because you don't generally lodge
an additional bond.
Speaker 2 (11:22):
So it really is quite age actually new ret it's rents.
Speaker 3 (11:26):
So it's rentals, it's new store sales. It's not saying
store sales if you like, it's just new leases.
Speaker 2 (11:34):
Do you ever get cases where people haggle that, I mean,
it'sn't funny get curious to know about. If you're a renter,
would you ever try and haggle down your rent once
you're in the property?
Speaker 3 (11:45):
It has been known to happen when people get to
particularly if you're on a fixed term, and you get
to the end of your fixed term and you know,
you have a discussion with your property manager or your
land lord about whether or not you're going to continue
the rent, and you know, particularly in the COVID years,
renters were doing exactly that. You know, they're getting to
the end of their ten and see and looking around
(12:06):
the building that they're in and going, well, there's actually
cheaper properties for rent in this actual building.
Speaker 2 (12:12):
Ah. So you'd be doing it based You wouldn't just
be doing Hey, i've heard the markets on the slide.
I'm going to offer you fifty bucks less a week.
You'd probably want to more successfully saying look, house next
door is fifty bucks cheaper. Therefore, I don't think I
should be paying this.
Speaker 3 (12:26):
Take is always useful and having information and it's pretty
easy to get right. Pop on to trade me and
you can see what properties in the area around you
are renting for trade me you're a real estate dot co,
dot NZ or wonder if because all of those those
portals have rental data, and see what you know and
see what's for rent around you.
Speaker 2 (12:45):
Okay, want your calls as well on this, But also
what does it mean for the market, because I would
have just my take on this, not being an investor,
but having maybe hosted a property show for long enough
to sort of read a few signs here and there
is this is not good news for the property market
because it's just another niggative thing to invest is what
(13:06):
do you reckon? I wait on hundred eighty, ten to eighty.
Let's take some calls, shall we. We're with Helen O.
Sullivan by the way, she's CEO of real estate at
Velocity and she is a lover of data or data
no matter how you say it. Right, Let's go to
Ray Hello.
Speaker 4 (13:21):
Ah, hi, talent, I just wonder do you break your
rental data down into the type property?
Speaker 3 (13:30):
So I think the property the data that we're talking
about comes from mby and I don't believe it is
broken down by I don't think it is broken down
by houses and units. It is an interesting question though,
because those are often quite different. Rental liquors.
Speaker 4 (13:45):
Yeah, because I mean, I know there's a glass of
two beer drinks, and so the prices are going down
on them. And there's a glutt of those properties that
were built to cell that have come onto the rental market.
Yet my son tells me he has a friend who's
trying to get a family home of three to four
(14:05):
bedrooms with a garden and is arriving and they've got
fifteen applications.
Speaker 3 (14:12):
Well that's interesting, and.
Speaker 4 (14:13):
They've appeared to pay whatever they can and they cannot
get it. They've been looking for over two months.
Speaker 3 (14:19):
Oh that's really tough. I mean that is this is
aggregate data, and so there may well be pockets of
different different yeah, category, I.
Speaker 4 (14:28):
Think, Yeah, AI could be used to break it down further.
Speaker 2 (14:34):
I guess it depends what information. I guess it depends
on what information is in the data, doesn't it.
Speaker 1 (14:39):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (14:39):
Look, I think in that NB data, which the analysis
is actually not ours to be clear, is actually that
I believe that they are in the next level down
it is, and it is broken down into bedrooms, but
we're talking about it at the aggregate, which shows that
that overall that change and you're right, there can well
be different movements within the categories, which yeah, I.
Speaker 4 (15:02):
Think, yeah, I think with a you could break it
down into addresses to what the type of house is.
Is it a house with land? Yeah, it's interesting a
house with a back garden that's the size of a.
Speaker 3 (15:19):
MB. Doesn't make the rental data available at that level
of details, and they don't actually give us addresses.
Speaker 2 (15:25):
Because if you had the addresses, then you really would
be able to dig into it a bit more, would you.
Speaker 3 (15:30):
With the tools, we could definitely categorize it like that,
but it isn't. Unfortunately, we'd love to be able to
get that that level of data at that detail.
Speaker 2 (15:39):
What's not available? Y? What do you reckon it means
for the market if rents are coming down, it's to
me it just looks like another negative piece of news
for for potential investors. What are you read?
Speaker 4 (15:49):
I've got to I've got a rental property in Sandringham,
three bedrooms, two bathrooms. It has been rented for I
think maybe the last stick see on the same tendency. Yeah,
but the tenants keep rolling over as a flat and
they're all young people, and nearly every one of them
(16:14):
has moved overseas and somebody moved in to take their place.
Speaker 2 (16:18):
So you've got one person who's got the lease, but there.
Speaker 4 (16:20):
Are some just no, the lease has changed many okay,
but different the lead. Sorry, there's been variations to the lease. Okay,
because the new one bedroom leaf. The new person comes
in and they're all young people, I would say, in
their twenties to early thirties UK, Australia, Europe. They're off.
Speaker 2 (16:42):
You're probably okay with keeping that tenant, doesn't it because
you're in Soundring and it's I guess that's the thing
that you've got a good area.
Speaker 4 (16:50):
Yeah, it is good. And I've got another property in
Bleneden and it's a minor dwelling which is never taken
into account and evaluations when I get it, and that's
got a sixty five year old lady living in it.
Speaker 2 (17:10):
I guess if you've have you had these properties for
a long time.
Speaker 4 (17:15):
No, the then you hand one for a long time.
The other one I think twenty twenty one, twenty two,
just after COVID.
Speaker 2 (17:24):
Okay, yeah, now, because I was just wondering. The longer
you have a property, the more landlords, I guess feel
don't feel so stressed about the rental because they've I
don't know, do you worry about the rentals perhaps getting
a bit cheaper or you find you just absorb whatever
you need to.
Speaker 4 (17:40):
Look, if my tenant came to me and said, could
you reduce the rent? I would, But then again, I
haven't put it up for four years.
Speaker 2 (17:48):
Well let's hope they're not listening for the show.
Speaker 4 (17:50):
Right prior to that, it was five years. Yeah, you know,
so if I've got a good tenant and they're looking
after the place, you know that's within two wes a warrior,
I think it should be I don't touch it.
Speaker 2 (18:06):
Yeah, good on you. Actually, I mean that's a thing
I've heard commonly from from landlords that if they have
a tenant who looks after the property, who they trust,
I mean, there's so many there's so many hidden costs
potentially if you get another tenant, you don't know if
somebody looks after it, they don't trash the place, they
pay the rent on time.
Speaker 3 (18:27):
I mean that Yeah, again, it comes back to takes
a lot to pay for a two or three weeks vacancy.
You lose, you lose that, rentals dreams, that's you've got
to do well to make up for that, and it's
you know, got a good tenant hang on to them.
Speaker 2 (18:43):
Yeah, I love your cause on this, your reaction to
the media. And rent has dropped for the first time.
Now it is based on the amounts that have been
lodged for bonds, but it's a signal that you know,
rents well, it's just another reminder, really, isn't it that
rents are softening.
Speaker 3 (18:55):
Well, I think it's just another reminder that the economy
is still pretty soft.
Speaker 2 (19:00):
So is it more economic thing or more of a
real estate marker? Everything is hand in hand.
Speaker 3 (19:04):
It's a bit of everything, and yeah, it is hand
in hand. I mean, we've had some really interesting discussions
around this this week, with Chris Bishop saying, you know,
we've got to get away from.
Speaker 2 (19:13):
The economy and the real estate market.
Speaker 3 (19:16):
Bernard Heckey loves to talk about the you know, New
Zealand being a housing market with an economy tacked on,
and certainly.
Speaker 2 (19:23):
There's a little a few years ago.
Speaker 3 (19:26):
Well, to be fair, you know, we have made and
real estate such an investment class in New Zealand that
you know, it's become that's the that's the accepted pathway
to developing capital wealth has been an investment in property.
And I do think with the current market and the
(19:50):
change in the rate of capital growth, we are definitely
seeing that approach to properly start to change.
Speaker 2 (19:57):
And not because he said it either, not because Chris
Bishop said he wants to change it. It does seem
to be just changing.
Speaker 3 (20:03):
Do you think ultimately, yeah, that's not necessarily a bad thing,
but it's important that we recognize private landlords have been
and have been and remain an enormous part of the
provision of rental housing in New Zealand, and that's that's
necessary because there's lots of times in your life that
you're not ready or able or willing to buy a house.
You want to be able to rent. You know, it's
(20:26):
going to work for a lot of people. If that
isn't economic for private individuals, then where's the Where's that
being replaced? And starting to see the professionalization of rental
housing in the build to rent sector is you know,
it's important that there is something else steps forward to
(20:47):
fill that gap.
Speaker 2 (20:48):
Right, love your cause on a one hundred and eighty
ten eighty year response to rents being a bit softer,
if I can use that word, and the dropped for
the first time since two thousand and nine, what does
it mean for the market. We've also got another question
we might dig into before the end of the hour,
which is the possibility, as hinted at by New Zealand
First and Winston, that we might allow buyers foreign buyers
back into the market and your reaction to that as well.
(21:11):
We'll dig into that. I have mentioned it now, so
I'll have to dig into it with I will. I
will just have to do it. But meanwhile, what does
the softening of rents mean do you think for the market,
Because it just seems to me that great news for
probably anyone who wants to get into the market, because
it shows that the real estate market's but soft at
the moment, investors are not going to be getting in necessarily.
But what's your take? I could be completely wrong. Often
(21:33):
I am have made plenty of bad decisions around real estate,
usually around not doing anything. Twenty eight past four news talks,
he'd be.
Speaker 5 (21:40):
Hussy rating Hussy trouble.
Speaker 2 (21:51):
Hussy. We'll explain him, Hussy Townday. Let's welcome back to
the One roof radio show on Tim Beverage. My guest
is Hello, No Soul when she's CEO of real estate
at a Velocity V a l O City, and we're
(22:11):
talking about the drop in rents. The data has revealed
that rents have come down a bit. What do you reckon?
I've got a couple of texts here. Actually this is interesting,
one of you, Helen. It says, please compare the cost
of renting versus owning property when you factor and rates,
insurance and maintenance alongside the cost of a mortgage. Well,
I guess how does that all? How does that all look?
Speaker 3 (22:32):
Okay? Now that's that's when I don't have right nothing attics.
But it has an interesting analysis that's regularly updated.
Speaker 2 (22:40):
I guess the broader question is there was a point
where people there was a point where it's like, well
why am I paying rent im as well buy property?
And that does seem like that was a while ago,
but was it.
Speaker 3 (22:52):
Look, it's always worth doing that analysis because at the
end of the day, when you buy a property, you're like,
if you're paying your own mortgage, as opposed to someone else's.
That's always got to be preferable to be. Building up
your own equity gives you something on the long term
and gives you a stack in that capital gain in
the property.
Speaker 2 (23:11):
I always think the tricky one is working out how
much that property really is going to cost you. You know,
you go, okay, this is what I'm paying in rent,
I'll be paying maybe a little bit extra, go to
save up my deposit, and this is what the mortgage
is going to be. But then you get, of course,
as you know, insurance, you get in rates. But the
one I always think is the biggest hidden one is
just how much you're going to have to spend on
(23:32):
property maintenance. And I actually wonder how, I mean, does
that mean that people are more drawn to new builds
or they I don't know, it's but that is very
difficult to work out what you're going to have to
spend on something.
Speaker 3 (23:45):
It is difficult to work out, and I guess I
think it is why a lot of first time buyers
do find they high quality apartment or new builds really appealing,
because you know, hopefully you've got a lower maintenance estimate
and you're not going to find your house has fallen
off the piles or some other fabulous thing old villas
do to us.
Speaker 2 (24:06):
And I know you can get building inspections and things,
but there's always a time when the roof's fine. But
maybe in a few years time sudden you've got to do.
Speaker 3 (24:13):
That or well, the thing is, you do have to
factor in maintenance because it has to be done. But
you have to do it in apartment buildings as well.
Speaker 2 (24:21):
You have to fat renting though you just have to
direct this is what I'm paying each week.
Speaker 3 (24:26):
Yes, but you have to have a landlord who is
also doing that maintenance, because living in a home that
isn't well maintained is pretty unfortunate and does happen to
too many unfortunate renters.
Speaker 2 (24:38):
On the rental John has textas saying, I know a
solo mum with three teenagers rents a full bedroom house
just negotiouted a seventy dollars decrease on her rent side
of the times. Mind you, she's a fierce debater. Well
done her and sorry landlord their mortgage to the hilt. Yeah,
(24:59):
I mean, and I mean in terms of negotiating as well.
I mean, if you're just saying, look, you're struggling to
meet rent. That's probably not the strongest argument, isn't it.
Speaker 3 (25:07):
But if you argument is some data, so you know,
you can look at properties that are for rent around
you and you bearing in mind that in New Zealand
we do have you know, landlords can't advertise a property
for five hundred dollars and then you know, and make
you pay five point fifty If it's advertised for five hundred,
that's the maximum they can rent it for. So you
(25:30):
know that the rental bidding.
Speaker 2 (25:31):
Is it a recent change? Has it always been like that?
Speaker 3 (25:35):
No, it was. It is a change, but it's about
five years ago under the Labor government t Actually it
was one of the earlier changes was outlawering rental bidding.
Speaker 2 (25:44):
I sort of so you can't eat no matter how
much of properties in demand.
Speaker 3 (25:49):
Correct.
Speaker 2 (25:51):
What do you think of that? I think it is.
Speaker 3 (25:55):
Look, I think it's fairer on renters. At the end
of the day, the power imbalance can be quite significant here,
and so you can end up with people being kind
of forced to pay more than the advertised price when
they're not really in a position to do so. At
the end of the day, it's up to the landlord
then to price the property accurately and get the number
(26:19):
right in the first place, and what happens, so it's
effectively like a contract in any other contract, here's your
invitation to treat. I advertise at this price, and then
we negotiate. So the point being if you are looking
at properties around you and saying, well, that's being advertised
that's very similar to my house, and it's been advertised
for five hundred dollars a week and I'm paying seven
to fifty, that is a really useful data point to
(26:41):
be taken to your And if you're at the point
that your lease is up for negotiation, it's a really appropriate,
really good time to actually have that conversation.
Speaker 2 (26:52):
Hey, the other story that's been in the news the
last few days, I'm not sure if it's ever really
leaves the news much, but it's back on the agenda
is the potential shift in our attitude towards foreign buyers
with Winston. I think Winston himself signaled or has said
there might be some sort of change in terms of
(27:13):
who we allow to buy property. My understanding is that
it's probably going to be related to maybe comments John
key mate Is said if you're going to ask someone
to invest one hundred million dollars in the country, it's
absurd that you won't let them buy a house, which
I think God tend to agree with. My understanding is
(27:34):
what we might be looking at is for a certain
level of investment, you can buy a house basically and
people will be but the house will have to be
Winston said, it won't just be a two million dollar
houses if that's cheap, but it'll be a higher level.
What's your understanding if you would have been tracking those headlines?
Speaker 3 (27:51):
Yeah, look, I have been keeping a bad eye on this.
I mean, look, it's always of interest, right. Their original
context was that when National won the election, one of
their policy was it they're going to use that that
that that band, but instead there would be a tax
(28:11):
paid so foreign bars could buy, but they would have
to pay a levy on top of it, and that
would generate income and and that would you know, it
was factored into economic forecasts. However, in the coalition negotiations
that that idea was sidelined. But yes, it has sort
of returned to the discussions worth the context being you know,
(28:34):
the Golden visa kind of concept, and I believe there's
been roughly two hundred applicants for that that category of visa.
And look, it does make sense, right if you are
going to come and bring a couple of hundred million
dollars to invest here, you're probably not going to want
to rent.
Speaker 2 (28:52):
Noally, what's what's your attitude to prime buyers if you
ever were you in favor of them sort of cart
blanche being able to invest and use it buy properly
in New Zealand, or were you in favor of some
sort of rest strict access.
Speaker 3 (29:06):
I could see absolutely, particularly at the height of the market,
the importance of there being some kind of some kind
of regulation around it. The end of the day, housing
is not just any asset. Housing is a really important
part of It's a key infrastructure and it's a key
(29:27):
infrastructure rural element of our communities. So it's really important
that the ownership of that there be some kind of
frameworks around it that makes sense. And particularly at the
point in time that the discussion was most at its peak,
you know, the market itself was quite frenzied. There was
a real supply and demand and balance, and there was
(29:49):
a sense that adding in the extra demand on top
of a market that already had more demand than it
was capable of filling. You know, there was a good
argument to say, if you're gonna you're just having an
untrammeled market. Isn't a good idea.
Speaker 2 (30:05):
Can't work out my philosophy on it because I'm slightly
a hypocrite on this, because I like to think that
there are some countries I can I could if I
had the money buy a property in and the one
people wouldn't be surprised. I wouldn't mind if I having
a property in.
Speaker 3 (30:19):
France, having a wella in Tuscany.
Speaker 2 (30:21):
Yeah, yeah, I mean I did look at the prices
of someone thought that's a lot of that's a Loto
win and not the vision, not just the first week
of the Powerball as a reset. So I like to
think I could do that, and there are countries that
we can by property. But I also but that's little
old New Zealander going to a big market, and I
(30:42):
sort of feel that doesn't have the same effect as
the world's attention being placed on New Zealand. So I'm
a little bit of a hypocrite that I'm not big
But if you look at.
Speaker 3 (30:49):
Those markets, you know, look at look at Venice, for example,
where there is a huge debate at the moment around
because of what happens with a lot of those properties.
If you're the second home owner, you go there for
your three week holiday a year, and then the rest
of the time it's rented as an airbnb, and that
starts to hollow out those communities.
Speaker 2 (31:09):
And I can understand them saying no, we don't like that.
What do you reckon? Are you okay with foreign buyers
being allowed to come in on some conditions, whether they
be you must invest in New Zealand outside of real
estate to the value of X dollars or you know what,
how would you reset that if you were in charge?
(31:31):
Or do you like the idea of well, not like
the idea? Do you not mind the idea of saying, okay,
you can buy a house in New Zealand as long
as it's worth more than ten million bucks, give us
a call if you like. I eight hundred and eighty
ten eighty. We've got to take quick break. We'll be
back in tick. It's nineteen minutes to five news talks.
He'd be.
Speaker 5 (31:49):
When I hear that was law, My.
Speaker 2 (31:58):
Okay, I feel like I need to say welcome back
to the Weekend Collective one roof radio show. I don't
know why, I just us of that music there anyway.
My guest is Helen O'Sullivan from Velocity, talking about whether
we should let foreign buyers back in on what terms?
Peter hello there.
Speaker 5 (32:14):
It's too late for Winst Peter's to change his mind.
I must, they should. He shouldn't have done in the
first place. They should the National Act. I think I
was the best idea. You know, a fifteen percent levy
or on a house that's going to be worth X
to begin with, and X means I don't know, maybe
three format five million, I don't know what it was.
Speaker 2 (32:35):
Yeah, well okay on a particular value property.
Speaker 5 (32:41):
Yeah, yeah, over two million, I think. And what are
they saying? Well, so if you bought two million, you've
got to pay three hundred thousand dollars leaving no, he.
Speaker 2 (32:48):
Said, it won't be properties that are worth two million.
In other words, it'll be.
Speaker 5 (32:53):
He wants he wants higher, because you know, in some
parts we count two million just pleasure and I wouldn't
say everage house. But it doesn't buy you a spectacle house.
Speaker 2 (33:02):
But do you think it's better instead of worrying about
the tax on the property just to make them invest
a certain amount in productive businesses in New Zealand. Wouldn't
that be better?
Speaker 5 (33:10):
Oh no, no, no, they can't come here buy ours. They've
got it if they want a productive business. I'm all
for that. But Winston Peters is starving it. And I'll
tell you what's good, and I'll tell you why it's bad,
in a sense that there's more than a mathematical chance,
you know, labor could be the next government unfortunately, and
(33:30):
Winston he wants the ball balls and so you know,
things like that, the home buyer thing will come back
on and then why would guess people want to come here.
They would have to throw the labor line on gas.
Speaker 1 (33:43):
So.
Speaker 5 (33:46):
Campaign on it.
Speaker 2 (33:47):
Okay, now I got on your peed, drifting into some
other political territory there, Josh, Hello, yeah.
Speaker 6 (33:53):
Hey some yeah, good good yarns guys. I had one
question first, but I also wanted to comment about foreign ownership.
But apparently first time by our stats are on the up.
I'm just curious do we have access to a breakdown
of of what that's made out of? Like an example,
(34:15):
is part of the first home buyers is that newly
founded family trusts, or that is that individual people if so,
is that people coming back into the country, or is
that made up of local and foreign professionals returning, et cetera.
Speaker 2 (34:37):
One straight onto Hell yeah.
Speaker 3 (34:39):
Look, the analysis of first home bars of buyer categories
involves a lot of judgment and careful kind of data mansion.
But there's you know, it's got there's always some assumptions
that have to be made withn't it. And we do
our best to eliminate those situations where it's trusts and
(35:03):
things like that. But you know, generally we are seeing
an increase in first home buyers. In part I think
that's also because we've seen a decline in the number
of landlords who are actually entering the market. So first
home bars are definitely on the app.
Speaker 6 (35:21):
Yeah yeah, yeah, so sorry Helen supplementary question speaker, Yeah,
can we get it, Like is there more kindative breakdown
where these first home buyers are either coming from or
with it, Like is it internal money from you know, wherever?
Or is it professional people returning home? You know what
(35:45):
I mean?
Speaker 3 (35:45):
Like, yeah, look, we don't get yeah, we don't get
that level of detail. Unfortunately, that would.
Speaker 2 (35:54):
Good on your Josh, thank you. It's always worth asking.
I say such thing as a dumb question. I got
a quick question on the feign buyers. You see, if
we have people buy let's just say they have a
you come and invest in New Zealand, you can buy
a house, it's got to be worth more than you
got to pay more than five million bucks for. What
does that mean for the rest of the market. When
you get a band which is subject to slightly extra demand, well,
(36:16):
although you know it might only be one hundred or
two hundred people, what does it do for those properties
that are worth four and a half or what does
it just look after itself because rich people are going
to be spending ten to twenty million unintended consequences.
Speaker 3 (36:30):
Yeah, it's an interesting increasing. You see this in the
UK because they've got stamp duty right, and it's at
different different price points. And so if stamp duty kicks
in at two million pounds at a certain level, then
that does tend to have some kind of impact on
the things that are worth one point eight one point nine,
they're suddenly worth a lot more. And then you get
(36:51):
a little bit of hit cane areas, you know, suddenly
magically I pay you the extra one hundred and fifty
thousand pounds under the table rather than directly, so that
I don't have to pay a working great tax.
Speaker 2 (37:01):
Bill, and that I think make a payment to your
favorite charity.
Speaker 3 (37:04):
That's right, you might start to see some of that stuff,
you know, get a little bit murky. There's always an
untended consequences whenever you apply any kind of slide rule
or threshold, there's always going to be some murkiness around
the edges.
Speaker 2 (37:19):
A few tech suggesting that so long as they buy
new builds. But to be honest, look, my stance would
be if people are going to invest some significant level
into New Zealand, into the New Zealand economy, then give
your time not too wide when you're talking.
Speaker 3 (37:33):
If we're talking about in the context of that Golden visa,
like two hundred people is not going to make two
hundred buyers, is not going to have a huge impact.
It's not going to distort the market. The market is
big enough to absorb that with barela flutter.
Speaker 2 (37:47):
Well, well, we're back in just a moment, and the
one roof properly of the week is probably one where
and I think maybe an overseas investor would be in
the ballpark for this because it's it's worth a little
bit more than two million dollars. But ten bit, just
a teeny bit. We'll be back in just a moment.
It's ten to five news Talks.
Speaker 1 (38:02):
He'd beak the one roof property of the week on
the Weekend Collective.
Speaker 2 (38:08):
Now the one roof property of the week. Now, there
is a question. Some people will ask, how do you
end up choosing your one roof property of the week.
And my producer Tyra often chooses them, actually or usually
always pretty much always unless I see something anyway, No, yes,
she always does it. And I said to Tyra, why
did you choose this property of the week? Not that
I don't like it, because I love it and it
(38:30):
is Tyra's dream home is the answer, and it is
five You can check it out on the one Roof
website One Roof dot Curtin in z. It is five
five Bruntwood Road, Tammaherty and the White Caddo. It's four bedrooms,
two bathrooms, three car garage. The house is three hundred
and forty five square meters, so pretty good. The land
is eight point one three hectares. It was built this year.
(38:54):
There's no estimate, but there has an RV of six
million bucks, which I'm not sure is. I don't know
what they're what they're going to be expecting for it.
Have you got to take on that, Helen? What do
you reckon?
Speaker 3 (39:04):
It's certainly not six million, it's a.
Speaker 2 (39:06):
Lot more more than that.
Speaker 3 (39:07):
It's six million would be probably the old RV.
Speaker 2 (39:11):
Yeah, it's got class was completed equine facilities. It's designed
for serious equine operations. It's got to meticulously maintain six
hundred and fifty meter sand track with training barriers, thirty
five paddocks, twenty one modern horse boxes. It's got the
cold kittenkerboodle here.
Speaker 3 (39:29):
It's seriously serious.
Speaker 2 (39:30):
Actually, the house is really really I mean it's the
sort of house I could imagine, I could imagine being
that the lord of the manor quite well in this house,
although the manner is the wrong word for this place,
because it's a beautiful new build. What do you reckon, Helen?
Speaker 3 (39:44):
Oh, look, it's absolutely gorgeous and you're you're absolutely right, Tim,
you're with a uge. You know, if you if you
landed the if you landed the power ball, it would
be a cracker of a spot to sit back, relax
and watch your.
Speaker 2 (40:01):
Watch, watch my winning horse, gallopy.
Speaker 3 (40:03):
Winning horse gallop bar.
Speaker 2 (40:05):
Yeah. Actually it's not a holiday home. It is a
living you know, and it's it's got a comprehensive working infrastructure,
you know, all design round. I wonder if that makes
a order supply, doesn't make it harder to sell? Do
you think that something is it's really you know, you've
got to be into the horses, or would it be
something where people are buying just.
Speaker 3 (40:26):
Well, the thing is, because it's just got two separate
legal entrances, you could you could quite cheerfully live there
and have another arrangement for the equine facilities.
Speaker 2 (40:38):
The other thing about these beautiful new builds is if
you're looking for ideas for your own home, if you're
looking to renovate, I think looking at a house like that,
there's a few ideas I've already stolen. Hey, Helen, lovely
to see you. Thanks so much for coming in. And
if people want to see the work of Velocity dot
coded and said yeah.
Speaker 3 (40:53):
And also one roof dot co dot said.
Speaker 2 (40:55):
Of course that's us radio show exactly. By the way,
if you missed any of this hour, you can go
check out our podcast on Newstalks. Her beat doc cut
in our iHeartRadio. But up next we have Sarah Chatwin
with us talking about managing your child's early relationships as
an boyfriend girlfriend. We'll be back with the Parents Squad next.
Speaker 1 (41:17):
News Talk SeeDB for more from the weekend collective. Listen
live to News Talk SEDB weekends from three pm, or
follow the podcast on iHeartRadio
You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from news Talk said,
be the use just.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
A lit you can start by. You can't start five
without a spot. This King's be higher even if you're
just as message. Just kick getting clear. William's on and
(00:36):
I'm moving round the place. I check my look in
the mirror. I want to change my clothes, my hair,
my face. Nowhere I just leave up the tip like
this is someone having any songwhere? Baby, I just know
(00:57):
you can't start by. I really just wanted to let
that roll for a while. Got a little bit of Bruce.
I mean, this is great ru Springsteen, isn't It's not
sort of you know, there's certain things you've got to
avoid on Bruce Springsteen, like born in the USA and
born to run pats. You know. Yeah, a little bit
of Bruce to get us into the into the next hour.
By the way, this is coming up in the next hour,
(01:20):
we'll have the parents squab with Sharah chat. When talking
about managing your child's first relationships or their relationships, when
do you sort of have to back off and you know,
the public displays of affection, you want to all that
sort of stuff. How do you manage that and as well,
is it okay to tell off other people's kids? But
guess what, you have to wait an hour for this
because right now we are into the one roof radio
(01:43):
show and you can give us a call. And I
we one hundred and eighty ten eighty in text on
nine two nine two. I think I might have said
you can email me various times, but generally emails to
the last results. I might not check the email until
I don't know tomorrow, but you can email Tim be
at NEWSTALKSAIDB dot co dot n Z. And my guest
is she is CEO of real estate at Velocity. That's
(02:05):
with an A, A, C, I T Y. And I
think we can say she's become a bit of a
regular on the show and she's here in persons Helen O. Sullivan, Hello, Helen,
how are you? Tim?
Speaker 3 (02:16):
I am extremely well, thank you, and thank you for
my opening song. That was just rocking.
Speaker 2 (02:20):
That just a lot of Bruce. Oh yeah, hey, just
to remind people about Velocity. What do you guys do?
Speaker 3 (02:31):
So we are a proper tech that we are steeped
in property data. We loves property, we love data. We
got get two together and all is great.
Speaker 2 (02:39):
We loves property and we love data.
Speaker 3 (02:41):
Property and we love data.
Speaker 2 (02:42):
And so the average punter would they what I mean,
who do you provide your services for? What's the purpose?
What's your mission statement?
Speaker 4 (02:50):
Sort of?
Speaker 3 (02:50):
Yeah, So Velocity is the data partner for one Roof.
So we provide vast amounts of truckloads truckloads of fun
and interesting stuff about property because there's lots of other
people that loves property data almost as much as me,
so were the data partner for one roof. We also
provide a product called Velocity Nexus, which is provided to
(03:11):
real estate agents. And so when your real estate agent
is working out what their property is worth and where
they you know, how they can list it for you
and best best sell it, a lot of them will
be using our tools.
Speaker 2 (03:24):
A stupid question. I imagine AI plays a part in
you and what you guys do as well in terms
of analysis and stuff. It's incredibly powerful tool, isn't it?
Speaker 3 (03:31):
One hundred percent? And it's really exciting at the moment
as we work out different ways that we can use
those tools, both to make our processes faster and more accurate,
more you know, and get to the outcomes faster, but
also to add all sorts of things that we've just
never been able to do before. So there's new functionality
and features we are beavering away looking at and it
(03:54):
is real. It's super cool and interesting actually just a
great given value of interesting and I love this stuff,
well one would hope.
Speaker 2 (04:00):
So if you, if you're the boss, look my property
smart where? So what are the sources of data that
you guys? I mean where does it all? Just for
a broader picture? I know we've talked about but it's
always nice for people to know where you're coming from
and what your you know, what your bag is.
Speaker 3 (04:22):
So look, there's a load of sources of data. One
of the key places that property data comes from is
council district valuation role records and they councils have a
function of collecting data about properties and how much they're
solved for and what they're built on and all that
kind of good stuff. But there are seven to your
territorial authorities around New Zealand and they all have data
(04:42):
and they all collect and manage it in different ways,
and so we bring all of that together and mix
and match and combine it. There's also Land Information New
Zealand or LINDS, which has all the title records and
information about services and encumbrances and things like that. We
bring all of that together as well.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
Is it sort of real time or do you get
it in chunks? You know, you'll go out and sort
of you'll have a a download or an upload, or you.
Speaker 3 (05:07):
Know, it's constantly speeding in all the time, daily by
the hour. It's just, you know, we're kind of just
you know, slurping up data from lots of different places
and then mixing and matching and combining and using there's
a huge algorithm that we use that generates in automatic
evaluation mechanisms and it you know, that's just constantly in
(05:27):
play looking for further data points.
Speaker 2 (05:30):
Because we're talking about something that has been reflected in data.
I hope you're not going to tell us it's out
of date, except would ruin wouldn't it? So I wouldn't
do that. This is real pretty recent but national, nationally,
rent has dropped for the first time since two thousand
and nine. So nationally we saw a drop of point
(05:50):
three percent over three months. The hardest hit was Auckland.
I mean, I guess when there are any headlines, Auckland's
always going to be the biggest growth or the biggest hit,
isn't it possibly because of just it? It's always okay,
cancel what I just said. But the hardest hit, the
hardest hit this time was or then dropping two percent
over the past year. What your take on this, as
(06:11):
well as to what your reaction to this is? There
are two questions. Should you be haggling down your rent
with your landlords?
Speaker 1 (06:18):
No?
Speaker 2 (06:18):
How do you resist? How do you go back and
negotiating these things? Or if you've got a good landlord,
you just suck it up and just keep quiet and
hopefully they won't put the rent up for a long time.
But also, if you're an investor, is this just another
piece of bad news? Or a property buyer, anyone who's
interested in the market, what does it mean to you?
I guess what does it mean to you? Helen?
Speaker 3 (06:37):
So look what it means at the moment is that
the rental market has been soft for some time. Talking
to property managers, which I do on a regular basis,
the supply of new tenants has been considerably reduced over
the past a couple of certainly in the last twelve months.
If you look at our net Inwoods Migration, our net
(06:57):
migration figures are the last I've been in a really
long time, and.
Speaker 2 (07:01):
Are they still? Is there still growth? Where we are
we still having net growth and migration?
Speaker 3 (07:06):
I think the net gain is still positive ten fifteen thousand,
Well it's about twenty three.
Speaker 2 (07:13):
Thousand from that, about twenty three five hundred and eighty nine, but.
Speaker 3 (07:17):
Approximately, not round about that. But you know from times
when we were seeing one hundred and twenty thousand, a
net gain of one hundred and twenty thousand people a year,
it is that's an enormous decline and it's only the
inwards flow which is offsetting the growth in the number
of people leaving the country.
Speaker 2 (07:35):
So now I probably need an explainer for this, And
how how can you have rent going down when there
are still more people arriving in the country who obviously
need somewhere to live. I would have thought that as
long as we have positive migration. And by the way, people,
(07:56):
if you're listening, you think God, Tim's being so thick
about this, I'll explain it to him, but Helen might.
But I can't get my head around that if there
are still a net growth, what gives we are still seeing.
Speaker 3 (08:08):
Small increases in the housing supply. So there have been
a number of new bills that have come to market
recently and complete, and there's also a lot of property
that developers were looking to sell and the market has
been pretty quiet at that end of the spectrum, and
as a result, I think a number of developers have
(08:30):
actually released stock to rent it to the rental market,
which they would otherwise be looking at.
Speaker 2 (08:35):
So okay, so there has been the requisite increase to
match that arrival, and maybe then some and a little
bit yeah, okay, so what what what do you put?
What do you put down the drop too? Is it
just the fact that it's sup the good old Keensi
and supply and demand or are there other factors at play?
Speaker 3 (08:53):
There's another factor at play in there as well. I
think it is just incomes are very tight, and so
you reach a level where tenants can't actually afford you know,
renters can't afford to pay anymore. And therefore, if you
are a landlord and you want to get your property occupied,
you have to meet the market. And it's interesting as
a landlord you're meeting the market can be twenty to
(09:15):
fifty dollars a week can make the difference between and
probably renting and not renting, And the reality is it
takes a really long time of an extra twenty or
thirty dollars a week to make up for three or
four weeks empty.
Speaker 2 (09:26):
Yeah, And is that the equation that a lot of
landlords will go through they're thinking, Oh, this person's offer
me a bit less. But hang on a minute. I
think I'd rather have them in my property tomorrow yep,
than leave it another month, two, three, whatever.
Speaker 3 (09:39):
Yeah, And look, that would be That would be the
counsel that I would give to landlords. So we're trying
to rent a property.
Speaker 2 (09:45):
A burden in the hand. Is that where the bird
in the hand is worth? I don't know where the
bird in the hand, but it was worth through in
the bush. In other words, take what you've got in
front of you right now, rather than waiting for what
might be in there.
Speaker 3 (09:55):
Yeah, yeah, you know, and grab it while it's gone.
I don't try, but yes, burd in the hands probably
are far better. That is better.
Speaker 2 (10:06):
I might have to google that to check out the context, right,
but I'm pretty sure a burn the hand is we're
through in the bush.
Speaker 3 (10:11):
Is well, it's test is take it now rather than
hoping for something better.
Speaker 2 (10:15):
Yes, that's right, Not that you're going to get two birds,
You're just going to get one place one probably not.
How does it so? I would guess and you can
tell me if I'm wrong here that the reason for
the change in the data data is that it's not
because people have haggled their rent down. It's because we
(10:36):
have had properties come online and subsequently landlords have dropped
their asking price. So it is important before there's a lag.
Speaker 3 (10:45):
Yeah, that data that we're getting, the MB rent data
is based on new bonds lodged. So if you rent
a property today and your rent is six hundred and
fifty dollars and you lodge the bond for that six fifty,
that is the data that MB is looking is recording there.
So it's only bonds. Is it's based off boonds. That's
(11:05):
where the comes from. That is only going to be
new properties rented. So if you're in a property and
you've been there for three years and the rent goes
up by twenty five dollars a week, that's generally not
captured in their NB data because you don't generally lodge
an additional bond.
Speaker 2 (11:22):
So it really is quite age actually new ret it's rents.
Speaker 3 (11:26):
So it's rentals, it's new store sales. It's not saying
store sales if you like, it's just new leases.
Speaker 2 (11:34):
Do you ever get cases where people haggle that, I mean,
it'sn't funny get curious to know about. If you're a renter,
would you ever try and haggle down your rent once
you're in the property?
Speaker 3 (11:45):
It has been known to happen when people get to
particularly if you're on a fixed term, and you get
to the end of your fixed term and you know,
you have a discussion with your property manager or your
land lord about whether or not you're going to continue
the rent, and you know, particularly in the COVID years,
renters were doing exactly that. You know, they're getting to
the end of their ten and see and looking around
(12:06):
the building that they're in and going, well, there's actually
cheaper properties for rent in this actual building.
Speaker 2 (12:12):
Ah. So you'd be doing it based You wouldn't just
be doing Hey, i've heard the markets on the slide.
I'm going to offer you fifty bucks less a week.
You'd probably want to more successfully saying look, house next
door is fifty bucks cheaper. Therefore, I don't think I
should be paying this.
Speaker 3 (12:26):
Take is always useful and having information and it's pretty
easy to get right. Pop on to trade me and
you can see what properties in the area around you
are renting for trade me you're a real estate dot co,
dot NZ or wonder if because all of those those
portals have rental data, and see what you know and
see what's for rent around you.
Speaker 2 (12:45):
Okay, want your calls as well on this, But also
what does it mean for the market, because I would
have just my take on this, not being an investor,
but having maybe hosted a property show for long enough
to sort of read a few signs here and there
is this is not good news for the property market
because it's just another niggative thing to invest is what
(13:06):
do you reckon? I wait on hundred eighty, ten to eighty.
Let's take some calls, shall we. We're with Helen O.
Sullivan by the way, she's CEO of real estate at
Velocity and she is a lover of data or data
no matter how you say it. Right, Let's go to
Ray Hello.
Speaker 4 (13:21):
Ah, hi, talent, I just wonder do you break your
rental data down into the type property?
Speaker 3 (13:30):
So I think the property the data that we're talking
about comes from mby and I don't believe it is
broken down by I don't think it is broken down
by houses and units. It is an interesting question though,
because those are often quite different. Rental liquors.
Speaker 4 (13:45):
Yeah, because I mean, I know there's a glass of
two beer drinks, and so the prices are going down
on them. And there's a glutt of those properties that
were built to cell that have come onto the rental market.
Yet my son tells me he has a friend who's
trying to get a family home of three to four
(14:05):
bedrooms with a garden and is arriving and they've got
fifteen applications.
Speaker 3 (14:12):
Well that's interesting, and.
Speaker 4 (14:13):
They've appeared to pay whatever they can and they cannot
get it. They've been looking for over two months.
Speaker 3 (14:19):
Oh that's really tough. I mean that is this is
aggregate data, and so there may well be pockets of
different different yeah, category, I.
Speaker 4 (14:28):
Think, Yeah, AI could be used to break it down further.
Speaker 2 (14:34):
I guess it depends what information. I guess it depends
on what information is in the data, doesn't it.
Speaker 1 (14:39):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (14:39):
Look, I think in that NB data, which the analysis
is actually not ours to be clear, is actually that
I believe that they are in the next level down
it is, and it is broken down into bedrooms, but
we're talking about it at the aggregate, which shows that
that overall that change and you're right, there can well
be different movements within the categories, which yeah, I.
Speaker 4 (15:02):
Think, yeah, I think with a you could break it
down into addresses to what the type of house is.
Is it a house with land? Yeah, it's interesting a
house with a back garden that's the size of a.
Speaker 3 (15:19):
MB. Doesn't make the rental data available at that level
of details, and they don't actually give us addresses.
Speaker 2 (15:25):
Because if you had the addresses, then you really would
be able to dig into it a bit more, would you.
Speaker 3 (15:30):
With the tools, we could definitely categorize it like that,
but it isn't. Unfortunately, we'd love to be able to
get that that level of data at that detail.
Speaker 2 (15:39):
What's not available? Y? What do you reckon it means
for the market if rents are coming down, it's to
me it just looks like another negative piece of news
for for potential investors. What are you read?
Speaker 4 (15:49):
I've got to I've got a rental property in Sandringham,
three bedrooms, two bathrooms. It has been rented for I
think maybe the last stick see on the same tendency. Yeah,
but the tenants keep rolling over as a flat and
they're all young people, and nearly every one of them
(16:14):
has moved overseas and somebody moved in to take their place.
Speaker 2 (16:18):
So you've got one person who's got the lease, but there.
Speaker 4 (16:20):
Are some just no, the lease has changed many okay,
but different the lead. Sorry, there's been variations to the lease. Okay,
because the new one bedroom leaf. The new person comes
in and they're all young people, I would say, in
their twenties to early thirties UK, Australia, Europe. They're off.
Speaker 2 (16:42):
You're probably okay with keeping that tenant, doesn't it because
you're in Soundring and it's I guess that's the thing
that you've got a good area.
Speaker 4 (16:50):
Yeah, it is good. And I've got another property in
Bleneden and it's a minor dwelling which is never taken
into account and evaluations when I get it, and that's
got a sixty five year old lady living in it.
Speaker 2 (17:10):
I guess if you've have you had these properties for
a long time.
Speaker 4 (17:15):
No, the then you hand one for a long time.
The other one I think twenty twenty one, twenty two,
just after COVID.
Speaker 2 (17:24):
Okay, yeah, now, because I was just wondering. The longer
you have a property, the more landlords, I guess feel
don't feel so stressed about the rental because they've I
don't know, do you worry about the rentals perhaps getting
a bit cheaper or you find you just absorb whatever
you need to.
Speaker 4 (17:40):
Look, if my tenant came to me and said, could
you reduce the rent? I would, But then again, I
haven't put it up for four years.
Speaker 2 (17:48):
Well let's hope they're not listening for the show.
Speaker 4 (17:50):
Right prior to that, it was five years. Yeah, you know,
so if I've got a good tenant and they're looking
after the place, you know that's within two wes a warrior,
I think it should be I don't touch it.
Speaker 2 (18:06):
Yeah, good on you. Actually, I mean that's a thing
I've heard commonly from from landlords that if they have
a tenant who looks after the property, who they trust,
I mean, there's so many there's so many hidden costs
potentially if you get another tenant, you don't know if
somebody looks after it, they don't trash the place, they
pay the rent on time.
Speaker 3 (18:27):
I mean that Yeah, again, it comes back to takes
a lot to pay for a two or three weeks vacancy.
You lose, you lose that, rentals dreams, that's you've got
to do well to make up for that, and it's
you know, got a good tenant hang on to them.
Speaker 2 (18:43):
Yeah, I love your cause on this, your reaction to
the media. And rent has dropped for the first time.
Now it is based on the amounts that have been
lodged for bonds, but it's a signal that you know,
rents well, it's just another reminder, really, isn't it that
rents are softening.
Speaker 3 (18:55):
Well, I think it's just another reminder that the economy
is still pretty soft.
Speaker 2 (19:00):
So is it more economic thing or more of a
real estate marker? Everything is hand in hand.
Speaker 3 (19:04):
It's a bit of everything, and yeah, it is hand
in hand. I mean, we've had some really interesting discussions
around this this week, with Chris Bishop saying, you know,
we've got to get away from.
Speaker 2 (19:13):
The economy and the real estate market.
Speaker 3 (19:16):
Bernard Heckey loves to talk about the you know, New
Zealand being a housing market with an economy tacked on,
and certainly.
Speaker 2 (19:23):
There's a little a few years ago.
Speaker 3 (19:26):
Well, to be fair, you know, we have made and
real estate such an investment class in New Zealand that
you know, it's become that's the that's the accepted pathway
to developing capital wealth has been an investment in property.
And I do think with the current market and the
(19:50):
change in the rate of capital growth, we are definitely
seeing that approach to properly start to change.
Speaker 2 (19:57):
And not because he said it either, not because Chris
Bishop said he wants to change it. It does seem
to be just changing.
Speaker 3 (20:03):
Do you think ultimately, yeah, that's not necessarily a bad thing,
but it's important that we recognize private landlords have been
and have been and remain an enormous part of the
provision of rental housing in New Zealand, and that's that's
necessary because there's lots of times in your life that
you're not ready or able or willing to buy a house.
You want to be able to rent. You know, it's
(20:26):
going to work for a lot of people. If that
isn't economic for private individuals, then where's the Where's that
being replaced? And starting to see the professionalization of rental
housing in the build to rent sector is you know,
it's important that there is something else steps forward to
(20:47):
fill that gap.
Speaker 2 (20:48):
Right, love your cause on a one hundred and eighty
ten eighty year response to rents being a bit softer,
if I can use that word, and the dropped for
the first time since two thousand and nine, what does
it mean for the market. We've also got another question
we might dig into before the end of the hour,
which is the possibility, as hinted at by New Zealand
First and Winston, that we might allow buyers foreign buyers
back into the market and your reaction to that as well.
(21:11):
We'll dig into that. I have mentioned it now, so
I'll have to dig into it with I will. I
will just have to do it. But meanwhile, what does
the softening of rents mean do you think for the market,
Because it just seems to me that great news for
probably anyone who wants to get into the market, because
it shows that the real estate market's but soft at
the moment, investors are not going to be getting in necessarily.
But what's your take? I could be completely wrong. Often
(21:33):
I am have made plenty of bad decisions around real estate,
usually around not doing anything. Twenty eight past four news talks,
he'd be.
Speaker 5 (21:40):
Hussy rating Hussy trouble.
Speaker 2 (21:51):
Hussy. We'll explain him, Hussy Townday. Let's welcome back to
the One roof radio show on Tim Beverage. My guest
is Hello, No Soul when she's CEO of real estate
at a Velocity V a l O City, and we're
(22:11):
talking about the drop in rents. The data has revealed
that rents have come down a bit. What do you reckon?
I've got a couple of texts here. Actually this is interesting,
one of you, Helen. It says, please compare the cost
of renting versus owning property when you factor and rates,
insurance and maintenance alongside the cost of a mortgage. Well,
I guess how does that all? How does that all look?
Speaker 3 (22:32):
Okay? Now that's that's when I don't have right nothing attics.
But it has an interesting analysis that's regularly updated.
Speaker 2 (22:40):
I guess the broader question is there was a point
where people there was a point where it's like, well
why am I paying rent im as well buy property?
And that does seem like that was a while ago,
but was it.
Speaker 3 (22:52):
Look, it's always worth doing that analysis because at the
end of the day, when you buy a property, you're like,
if you're paying your own mortgage, as opposed to someone else's.
That's always got to be preferable to be. Building up
your own equity gives you something on the long term
and gives you a stack in that capital gain in
the property.
Speaker 2 (23:11):
I always think the tricky one is working out how
much that property really is going to cost you. You know,
you go, okay, this is what I'm paying in rent,
I'll be paying maybe a little bit extra, go to
save up my deposit, and this is what the mortgage
is going to be. But then you get, of course,
as you know, insurance, you get in rates. But the
one I always think is the biggest hidden one is
just how much you're going to have to spend on
(23:32):
property maintenance. And I actually wonder how, I mean, does
that mean that people are more drawn to new builds
or they I don't know, it's but that is very
difficult to work out what you're going to have to
spend on something.
Speaker 3 (23:45):
It is difficult to work out, and I guess I
think it is why a lot of first time buyers
do find they high quality apartment or new builds really appealing,
because you know, hopefully you've got a lower maintenance estimate
and you're not going to find your house has fallen
off the piles or some other fabulous thing old villas
do to us.
Speaker 2 (24:06):
And I know you can get building inspections and things,
but there's always a time when the roof's fine. But
maybe in a few years time sudden you've got to do.
Speaker 3 (24:13):
That or well, the thing is, you do have to
factor in maintenance because it has to be done. But
you have to do it in apartment buildings as well.
Speaker 2 (24:21):
You have to fat renting though you just have to
direct this is what I'm paying each week.
Speaker 3 (24:26):
Yes, but you have to have a landlord who is
also doing that maintenance, because living in a home that
isn't well maintained is pretty unfortunate and does happen to
too many unfortunate renters.
Speaker 2 (24:38):
On the rental John has textas saying, I know a
solo mum with three teenagers rents a full bedroom house
just negotiouted a seventy dollars decrease on her rent side
of the times. Mind you, she's a fierce debater. Well
done her and sorry landlord their mortgage to the hilt. Yeah,
(24:59):
I mean, and I mean in terms of negotiating as well.
I mean, if you're just saying, look, you're struggling to
meet rent. That's probably not the strongest argument, isn't it.
Speaker 3 (25:07):
But if you argument is some data, so you know,
you can look at properties that are for rent around
you and you bearing in mind that in New Zealand
we do have you know, landlords can't advertise a property
for five hundred dollars and then you know, and make
you pay five point fifty If it's advertised for five hundred,
that's the maximum they can rent it for. So you
(25:30):
know that the rental bidding.
Speaker 2 (25:31):
Is it a recent change? Has it always been like that?
Speaker 3 (25:35):
No, it was. It is a change, but it's about
five years ago under the Labor government t Actually it
was one of the earlier changes was outlawering rental bidding.
Speaker 2 (25:44):
I sort of so you can't eat no matter how
much of properties in demand.
Speaker 3 (25:49):
Correct.
Speaker 2 (25:51):
What do you think of that? I think it is.
Speaker 3 (25:55):
Look, I think it's fairer on renters. At the end
of the day, the power imbalance can be quite significant here,
and so you can end up with people being kind
of forced to pay more than the advertised price when
they're not really in a position to do so. At
the end of the day, it's up to the landlord
then to price the property accurately and get the number
(26:19):
right in the first place, and what happens, so it's
effectively like a contract in any other contract, here's your
invitation to treat. I advertise at this price, and then
we negotiate. So the point being if you are looking
at properties around you and saying, well, that's being advertised
that's very similar to my house, and it's been advertised
for five hundred dollars a week and I'm paying seven
to fifty, that is a really useful data point to
(26:41):
be taken to your And if you're at the point
that your lease is up for negotiation, it's a really appropriate,
really good time to actually have that conversation.
Speaker 2 (26:52):
Hey, the other story that's been in the news the
last few days, I'm not sure if it's ever really
leaves the news much, but it's back on the agenda
is the potential shift in our attitude towards foreign buyers
with Winston. I think Winston himself signaled or has said
there might be some sort of change in terms of
(27:13):
who we allow to buy property. My understanding is that
it's probably going to be related to maybe comments John
key mate Is said if you're going to ask someone
to invest one hundred million dollars in the country, it's
absurd that you won't let them buy a house, which
I think God tend to agree with. My understanding is
(27:34):
what we might be looking at is for a certain
level of investment, you can buy a house basically and
people will be but the house will have to be
Winston said, it won't just be a two million dollar
houses if that's cheap, but it'll be a higher level.
What's your understanding if you would have been tracking those headlines?
Speaker 3 (27:51):
Yeah, look, I have been keeping a bad eye on this.
I mean, look, it's always of interest, right. Their original
context was that when National won the election, one of
their policy was it they're going to use that that
that that band, but instead there would be a tax
(28:11):
paid so foreign bars could buy, but they would have
to pay a levy on top of it, and that
would generate income and and that would you know, it
was factored into economic forecasts. However, in the coalition negotiations
that that idea was sidelined. But yes, it has sort
of returned to the discussions worth the context being you know,
(28:34):
the Golden visa kind of concept, and I believe there's
been roughly two hundred applicants for that that category of visa.
And look, it does make sense, right if you are
going to come and bring a couple of hundred million
dollars to invest here, you're probably not going to want
to rent.
Speaker 2 (28:52):
Noally, what's what's your attitude to prime buyers if you
ever were you in favor of them sort of cart
blanche being able to invest and use it buy properly
in New Zealand, or were you in favor of some
sort of rest strict access.
Speaker 3 (29:06):
I could see absolutely, particularly at the height of the market,
the importance of there being some kind of some kind
of regulation around it. The end of the day, housing
is not just any asset. Housing is a really important
part of It's a key infrastructure and it's a key
(29:27):
infrastructure rural element of our communities. So it's really important
that the ownership of that there be some kind of
frameworks around it that makes sense. And particularly at the
point in time that the discussion was most at its peak,
you know, the market itself was quite frenzied. There was
a real supply and demand and balance, and there was
(29:49):
a sense that adding in the extra demand on top
of a market that already had more demand than it
was capable of filling. You know, there was a good
argument to say, if you're gonna you're just having an
untrammeled market. Isn't a good idea.
Speaker 2 (30:05):
Can't work out my philosophy on it because I'm slightly
a hypocrite on this, because I like to think that
there are some countries I can I could if I
had the money buy a property in and the one
people wouldn't be surprised. I wouldn't mind if I having
a property in.
Speaker 3 (30:19):
France, having a wella in Tuscany.
Speaker 2 (30:21):
Yeah, yeah, I mean I did look at the prices
of someone thought that's a lot of that's a Loto
win and not the vision, not just the first week
of the Powerball as a reset. So I like to
think I could do that, and there are countries that
we can by property. But I also but that's little
old New Zealander going to a big market, and I
(30:42):
sort of feel that doesn't have the same effect as
the world's attention being placed on New Zealand. So I'm
a little bit of a hypocrite that I'm not big
But if you look at.
Speaker 3 (30:49):
Those markets, you know, look at look at Venice, for example,
where there is a huge debate at the moment around
because of what happens with a lot of those properties.
If you're the second home owner, you go there for
your three week holiday a year, and then the rest
of the time it's rented as an airbnb, and that
starts to hollow out those communities.
Speaker 2 (31:09):
And I can understand them saying no, we don't like that.
What do you reckon? Are you okay with foreign buyers
being allowed to come in on some conditions, whether they
be you must invest in New Zealand outside of real
estate to the value of X dollars or you know what,
how would you reset that if you were in charge?
(31:31):
Or do you like the idea of well, not like
the idea? Do you not mind the idea of saying, okay,
you can buy a house in New Zealand as long
as it's worth more than ten million bucks, give us
a call if you like. I eight hundred and eighty
ten eighty. We've got to take quick break. We'll be
back in tick. It's nineteen minutes to five news talks.
He'd be.
Speaker 5 (31:49):
When I hear that was law, My.
Speaker 2 (31:58):
Okay, I feel like I need to say welcome back
to the Weekend Collective one roof radio show. I don't
know why, I just us of that music there anyway.
My guest is Helen O'Sullivan from Velocity, talking about whether
we should let foreign buyers back in on what terms?
Peter hello there.
Speaker 5 (32:14):
It's too late for Winst Peter's to change his mind.
I must, they should. He shouldn't have done in the
first place. They should the National Act. I think I
was the best idea. You know, a fifteen percent levy
or on a house that's going to be worth X
to begin with, and X means I don't know, maybe
three format five million, I don't know what it was.
Speaker 2 (32:35):
Yeah, well okay on a particular value property.
Speaker 5 (32:41):
Yeah, yeah, over two million, I think. And what are
they saying? Well, so if you bought two million, you've
got to pay three hundred thousand dollars leaving no, he.
Speaker 2 (32:48):
Said, it won't be properties that are worth two million.
In other words, it'll be.
Speaker 5 (32:53):
He wants he wants higher, because you know, in some
parts we count two million just pleasure and I wouldn't
say everage house. But it doesn't buy you a spectacle house.
Speaker 2 (33:02):
But do you think it's better instead of worrying about
the tax on the property just to make them invest
a certain amount in productive businesses in New Zealand. Wouldn't
that be better?
Speaker 5 (33:10):
Oh no, no, no, they can't come here buy ours. They've
got it if they want a productive business. I'm all
for that. But Winston Peters is starving it. And I'll
tell you what's good, and I'll tell you why it's bad,
in a sense that there's more than a mathematical chance,
you know, labor could be the next government unfortunately, and
(33:30):
Winston he wants the ball balls and so you know,
things like that, the home buyer thing will come back
on and then why would guess people want to come here.
They would have to throw the labor line on gas.
Speaker 1 (33:43):
So.
Speaker 5 (33:46):
Campaign on it.
Speaker 2 (33:47):
Okay, now I got on your peed, drifting into some
other political territory there, Josh, Hello, yeah.
Speaker 6 (33:53):
Hey some yeah, good good yarns guys. I had one
question first, but I also wanted to comment about foreign ownership.
But apparently first time by our stats are on the up.
I'm just curious do we have access to a breakdown
of of what that's made out of? Like an example,
(34:15):
is part of the first home buyers is that newly
founded family trusts, or that is that individual people if so,
is that people coming back into the country, or is
that made up of local and foreign professionals returning, et cetera.
Speaker 2 (34:37):
One straight onto Hell yeah.
Speaker 3 (34:39):
Look, the analysis of first home bars of buyer categories
involves a lot of judgment and careful kind of data mansion.
But there's you know, it's got there's always some assumptions
that have to be made withn't it. And we do
our best to eliminate those situations where it's trusts and
(35:03):
things like that. But you know, generally we are seeing
an increase in first home buyers. In part I think
that's also because we've seen a decline in the number
of landlords who are actually entering the market. So first
home bars are definitely on the app.
Speaker 6 (35:21):
Yeah yeah, yeah, so sorry Helen supplementary question speaker, Yeah,
can we get it, Like is there more kindative breakdown
where these first home buyers are either coming from or
with it, Like is it internal money from you know, wherever?
Or is it professional people returning home? You know what
(35:45):
I mean?
Speaker 3 (35:45):
Like, yeah, look, we don't get yeah, we don't get
that level of detail. Unfortunately, that would.
Speaker 2 (35:54):
Good on your Josh, thank you. It's always worth asking.
I say such thing as a dumb question. I got
a quick question on the feign buyers. You see, if
we have people buy let's just say they have a
you come and invest in New Zealand, you can buy
a house, it's got to be worth more than you
got to pay more than five million bucks for. What
does that mean for the rest of the market. When
you get a band which is subject to slightly extra demand, well,
(36:16):
although you know it might only be one hundred or
two hundred people, what does it do for those properties
that are worth four and a half or what does
it just look after itself because rich people are going
to be spending ten to twenty million unintended consequences.
Speaker 3 (36:30):
Yeah, it's an interesting increasing. You see this in the
UK because they've got stamp duty right, and it's at
different different price points. And so if stamp duty kicks
in at two million pounds at a certain level, then
that does tend to have some kind of impact on
the things that are worth one point eight one point nine,
they're suddenly worth a lot more. And then you get
(36:51):
a little bit of hit cane areas, you know, suddenly
magically I pay you the extra one hundred and fifty
thousand pounds under the table rather than directly, so that
I don't have to pay a working great tax.
Speaker 2 (37:01):
Bill, and that I think make a payment to your
favorite charity.
Speaker 3 (37:04):
That's right, you might start to see some of that stuff,
you know, get a little bit murky. There's always an
untended consequences whenever you apply any kind of slide rule
or threshold, there's always going to be some murkiness around
the edges.
Speaker 2 (37:19):
A few tech suggesting that so long as they buy
new builds. But to be honest, look, my stance would
be if people are going to invest some significant level
into New Zealand, into the New Zealand economy, then give
your time not too wide when you're talking.
Speaker 3 (37:33):
If we're talking about in the context of that Golden visa,
like two hundred people is not going to make two
hundred buyers, is not going to have a huge impact.
It's not going to distort the market. The market is
big enough to absorb that with barela flutter.
Speaker 2 (37:47):
Well, well, we're back in just a moment, and the
one roof properly of the week is probably one where
and I think maybe an overseas investor would be in
the ballpark for this because it's it's worth a little
bit more than two million dollars. But ten bit, just
a teeny bit. We'll be back in just a moment.
It's ten to five news Talks.
Speaker 1 (38:02):
He'd beak the one roof property of the week on
the Weekend Collective.
Speaker 2 (38:08):
Now the one roof property of the week. Now, there
is a question. Some people will ask, how do you
end up choosing your one roof property of the week.
And my producer Tyra often chooses them, actually or usually
always pretty much always unless I see something anyway, No, yes,
she always does it. And I said to Tyra, why
did you choose this property of the week? Not that
I don't like it, because I love it and it
(38:30):
is Tyra's dream home is the answer, and it is
five You can check it out on the one Roof
website One Roof dot Curtin in z. It is five
five Bruntwood Road, Tammaherty and the White Caddo. It's four bedrooms,
two bathrooms, three car garage. The house is three hundred
and forty five square meters, so pretty good. The land
is eight point one three hectares. It was built this year.
(38:54):
There's no estimate, but there has an RV of six
million bucks, which I'm not sure is. I don't know
what they're what they're going to be expecting for it.
Have you got to take on that, Helen? What do
you reckon?
Speaker 3 (39:04):
It's certainly not six million, it's a.
Speaker 2 (39:06):
Lot more more than that.
Speaker 3 (39:07):
It's six million would be probably the old RV.
Speaker 2 (39:11):
Yeah, it's got class was completed equine facilities. It's designed
for serious equine operations. It's got to meticulously maintain six
hundred and fifty meter sand track with training barriers, thirty
five paddocks, twenty one modern horse boxes. It's got the
cold kittenkerboodle here.
Speaker 3 (39:29):
It's seriously serious.
Speaker 2 (39:30):
Actually, the house is really really I mean it's the
sort of house I could imagine, I could imagine being
that the lord of the manor quite well in this house,
although the manner is the wrong word for this place,
because it's a beautiful new build. What do you reckon, Helen?
Speaker 3 (39:44):
Oh, look, it's absolutely gorgeous and you're you're absolutely right, Tim,
you're with a uge. You know, if you if you
landed the if you landed the power ball, it would
be a cracker of a spot to sit back, relax
and watch your.
Speaker 2 (40:01):
Watch, watch my winning horse, gallopy.
Speaker 3 (40:03):
Winning horse gallop bar.
Speaker 2 (40:05):
Yeah. Actually it's not a holiday home. It is a
living you know, and it's it's got a comprehensive working infrastructure,
you know, all design round. I wonder if that makes
a order supply, doesn't make it harder to sell? Do
you think that something is it's really you know, you've
got to be into the horses, or would it be
something where people are buying just.
Speaker 3 (40:26):
Well, the thing is, because it's just got two separate
legal entrances, you could you could quite cheerfully live there
and have another arrangement for the equine facilities.
Speaker 2 (40:38):
The other thing about these beautiful new builds is if
you're looking for ideas for your own home, if you're
looking to renovate, I think looking at a house like that,
there's a few ideas I've already stolen. Hey, Helen, lovely
to see you. Thanks so much for coming in. And
if people want to see the work of Velocity dot
coded and said yeah.
Speaker 3 (40:53):
And also one roof dot co dot said.
Speaker 2 (40:55):
Of course that's us radio show exactly. By the way,
if you missed any of this hour, you can go
check out our podcast on Newstalks. Her beat doc cut
in our iHeartRadio. But up next we have Sarah Chatwin
with us talking about managing your child's early relationships as
an boyfriend girlfriend. We'll be back with the Parents Squad next.
Speaker 1 (41:17):
News Talk SeeDB for more from the weekend collective. Listen
live to News Talk SEDB weekends from three pm, or
follow the podcast on iHeartRadio
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