November 2, 2024 • 9 mins
All eyes are on the United States just days out from the presidential election.
Henry Olsen is a pollster and is well-known for being one of the most accurate analysts, correctly forecasting the past two elections.
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from News Talks EDB.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
So, yes, all eyes are on the United States. It
feels like it isn't going to be a long time
coming as we count down to the final days of
the election there. And Henry Olsen is, among other things,
upholster and a political analyst, and he's well known for
being one of those accurate analysts who's pretty good at forecasting,
having correctly predicted the last two elections. And Henry joins me, now,
(00:32):
good afternoon.
Speaker 3 (00:34):
Thank you for having me out.
Speaker 4 (00:35):
Good afternoon, Yeah, good afternoon.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
Is there life outside election talk in the USA right now?
Or is that everything everyone's talking about?
Speaker 4 (00:44):
Pretty much?
Speaker 3 (00:45):
Although we do have college football today, so you're trying
to get a diversion. You're talking about that.
Speaker 2 (00:50):
Yeah, What is the energy going on at the moment
leading up to the campaign? Is it getting more and
more intense with rhetoric and final campaign meetings?
Speaker 3 (01:01):
It's getting frantic more than intense. You've got the candidates
making multiple appearances in multiple states each day, exhausting themselves
to try and get the last mile out of the
time left. Both candidates seem to be projecting confidence. Both
campaigns are acting as if they think they're going to win,
and could very well be that their data do tell
(01:24):
them that, and of course one of them will be wrong.
Speaker 2 (01:28):
How is the rhetoric going from each side in terms
of the direction each candidate is taking.
Speaker 3 (01:34):
Well, you know, they remain trying to make a contrast,
which can sometimes be sharp and dark. It's not as
dark as there was a few days ago with Harris
talking about Trump being a fascist, but she does talk
a lot about that he is somebody who's going to
take office to take care of his enemies, not to
fight for you. And of course Trump is always somebody
(01:56):
who is taking the dark view of his opponent. But
unfortunately in the United States, that is what we have
become used to. So compare to some of the things
we've heard, it's not as not as nasty as it
has been, say.
Speaker 4 (02:09):
A week ago.
Speaker 2 (02:10):
Have there been any particular as you've mentioned one particular
comment from Harris, Have there been any particular gaffes or
events in the last week or two that have actually
really made a difference. Has been talked about the Puerto
Rico and Trump's recent comments about Liz Chiney, which didn't
sound too flash, any of those genuinely making any difference
(02:32):
in what we're seeing.
Speaker 3 (02:34):
Yeah, it's not making a difference as far as we
can tell from the data. I mean, you had Joe
Biden who said that Trump supporters were garbage, which led
to Trump having a very interesting stunt where garbage Trump
picked him up in Green Bay on the airport and
he wore a sanitation uniform at his rally that day.
Speaker 4 (02:53):
You know.
Speaker 3 (02:55):
But the thing is, ninety something percent of the people
know what they think. They either love Trump or they
hate Trump, or they hate the Democrats or they love
the Republicans. There's a lot of froth. There's a lot
of signal or noise, but there's not a whole lot
of signal.
Speaker 1 (03:11):
You know.
Speaker 3 (03:11):
Most people have made their minds up. And this stuff
is taking the news for focusing the news in a way,
but it's not moving the numbers very much.
Speaker 4 (03:21):
What is the what is the lightest data?
Speaker 3 (03:24):
The latest data seemed to be that it's a toss up.
The real Clear Politics average has Trump up by a
couple of tents of the point, the Cook Politics average
has Harris up by a couple of tents. With our
electoral college system, Harris really needs to have a larger
lead than that to have a good shot at winning.
But of course the Harris campaign thinks they've got that,
And there was a poll that came out just a
(03:45):
couple hours ago that has Harris ahead in Io, which
everyone thought Trump would win by a large margin. So
there's dueling polsters and we'll see who ends up being right.
But the data suggests we're coming down to a dead heat.
Speaker 4 (03:59):
We have quite a lot.
Speaker 2 (04:00):
I think we've got quite a large advanced voting numbers.
Can you put that in give us the number on
that and put us in context historically.
Speaker 3 (04:08):
Yeah, So we have about seventy five million people who
have already cast votes. By the time election day comes around,
that'll be over eighty maybe as much as eighty five million.
That is probably the highest number we've ever had. It's
somewhere around I think fifty five percent of the expected turnout,
but it could be an indication that turnout will be
(04:29):
much higher than most people think. We had one hundred
and fifty nine million votes cast two years ago or
four years ago. People thought it'd be a little bit less,
but it might end up being more, and the advanced
vote might be an indication of that.
Speaker 2 (04:44):
Does the advance vote tell you anything in terms of
which side that might favor, because my gut reaction in
New Zealand would be advanced vote tends to go towards
the more idealistic voters.
Speaker 4 (04:54):
Does that tell you anything, you know?
Speaker 3 (04:57):
In the United States, the advanced vote has historically, in
the last couple of cycles tended to tilt to the
Democratic Party and Republicans have caught up on election day.
The advanced vote in a number of states is more
Republican than it was in the recent elections, and that
could indicate a shift to the right. But it's hard
(05:17):
to know because of course you can't be sure whether
or not that's an indication of the electorate or if
that's just a timing issue. You know, like if the
Democrats who are not voting in Georgia early when they
voted before, show up on election day, then it'll have
been a mirage. But the base of the early voting
so far has been more to the right than historic
(05:39):
and some people think that might be good news for Trump.
Speaker 2 (05:42):
In terms of the swing states, of course, are there
any of those that are really coming into the sharpest focus?
Speaker 3 (05:50):
Nevada is coming into sharp focus that we have probably
seventy five percent of the votes that we expect to
be cast are in Wow, and it is historically Republican.
There's only about a day or two left where mailed
ballots can arrive. If that doesn't change, if the Republicans
still have a significant lead, which would be is their
(06:13):
first lead in twenty years in a presidential year, that
would be a strong sign that there won't be enough
election day vote to turn it into Harris's corner.
Speaker 2 (06:22):
What's the risk of civil unrest do you think on
election day?
Speaker 3 (06:27):
I wish I could say that that was an urban legend,
but I think there's a reasonably high risk of sporadic rioting.
I don't think there's going to be anything organized. Certainly
neither candidate is going to do that. But when you
have tensions this high and probably a lot of drinking
going on during election night, you know this is a
(06:50):
country where when teams win the Stanley Cup or football,
their fans go out and riot and trash their city
when they're happy. Imagine what happens when they think their
candidate has lost.
Speaker 4 (07:00):
How long do you think it's going to be till
we know anything?
Speaker 3 (07:04):
You know I am more of an optimist. I think
we'll have a very strong sense of who is likely
to win by midnight Eastern Time. It would have to
be incredibly close for us to not have a direction,
and I think we'll have a pretty firm sense even
if the networks haven't called it by six in the
morning Wednesday Eastern Time.
Speaker 2 (07:22):
Okay, well, let's we might as well push you for
a production, but you prepared to call it for us today.
Speaker 3 (07:30):
My prediction shows up in the New York Post on Monday,
and I'm not going to scoop myself even though you
are many thousands of miles away.
Speaker 2 (07:38):
Well we are, But I guess the internet undoes us
on that school, doesn't it?
Speaker 4 (07:43):
Yes, it does. Wait, will you be on election Nott, Henry.
Speaker 3 (07:48):
I will be at the University of Houston and I'll
be doing a live stream of my analysis. I do
live analysis starting from six thirty Eastern time, and I'll
be doing a live stream I think, on my YouTube channel.
So people who are interested, can you know me on
x at Henry Olson EPPC. Get the link and as
(08:09):
results come in, I'll say what it means and whether
or not this is good or bad for either candidate
and give you a little give you more detail than
you want to know.
Speaker 2 (08:19):
Excellent, And just like you last, where are the candidates
going to be? Because there was some confusion here. I
think there was one of the reasons we weren't sending
one of this one of our people might not be going,
So I don't know where to go to hang out
with Harris.
Speaker 4 (08:32):
Do we know where Harris and Trump are going to
be on election not?
Speaker 3 (08:36):
They haven't told us yet exactly. There's rumors that Trump
is going to be in West Palm Beach at Maro Lago,
but that has not been confirmed, and I do not
think that Harris has said where her election night party is.
Speaker 2 (08:49):
Okay, well, he look, we really appreciate your Timmy. You're
insight this afternoon. And have fun on election night, Henry.
Speaker 3 (08:57):
I always do, even though it's exhausting and grueling. When
one hundred and sixty million votes in the world's largest
west d democracy or cast, how can it be anything
but fun?
Speaker 4 (09:09):
Excellent.
Speaker 2 (09:10):
I really appreciate your time this afternoon. I think it's
your evening, isn't it. So thanks for much. It is cheers,
thank you, thank care, bye bye. That is Henry Olsen.
He is an analyst and polster in the States and
you will have heard his Twitter details. He has called
the last he called I mean, I think if you've
called the first election in twenty sixteen for Trump, he
called that one, and he called the results of the
last one. And go and check out his Twitter feed,
(09:31):
but interesting insight.
Speaker 1 (09:33):
For more from the Weekend Collective, listen live to News
Talks'd be weekends from three pm, or follow the podcast
on iHeartRadio.
You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from News Talks EDB.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
So, yes, all eyes are on the United States. It
feels like it isn't going to be a long time
coming as we count down to the final days of
the election there. And Henry Olsen is, among other things,
upholster and a political analyst, and he's well known for
being one of those accurate analysts who's pretty good at forecasting,
having correctly predicted the last two elections. And Henry joins me, now,
(00:32):
good afternoon.
Speaker 3 (00:34):
Thank you for having me out.
Speaker 4 (00:35):
Good afternoon, Yeah, good afternoon.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
Is there life outside election talk in the USA right now?
Or is that everything everyone's talking about?
Speaker 4 (00:44):
Pretty much?
Speaker 3 (00:45):
Although we do have college football today, so you're trying
to get a diversion. You're talking about that.
Speaker 2 (00:50):
Yeah, What is the energy going on at the moment
leading up to the campaign? Is it getting more and
more intense with rhetoric and final campaign meetings?
Speaker 3 (01:01):
It's getting frantic more than intense. You've got the candidates
making multiple appearances in multiple states each day, exhausting themselves
to try and get the last mile out of the
time left. Both candidates seem to be projecting confidence. Both
campaigns are acting as if they think they're going to win,
and could very well be that their data do tell
(01:24):
them that, and of course one of them will be wrong.
Speaker 2 (01:28):
How is the rhetoric going from each side in terms
of the direction each candidate is taking.
Speaker 3 (01:34):
Well, you know, they remain trying to make a contrast,
which can sometimes be sharp and dark. It's not as
dark as there was a few days ago with Harris
talking about Trump being a fascist, but she does talk
a lot about that he is somebody who's going to
take office to take care of his enemies, not to
fight for you. And of course Trump is always somebody
(01:56):
who is taking the dark view of his opponent. But
unfortunately in the United States, that is what we have
become used to. So compare to some of the things
we've heard, it's not as not as nasty as it
has been, say.
Speaker 4 (02:09):
A week ago.
Speaker 2 (02:10):
Have there been any particular as you've mentioned one particular
comment from Harris, Have there been any particular gaffes or
events in the last week or two that have actually
really made a difference. Has been talked about the Puerto
Rico and Trump's recent comments about Liz Chiney, which didn't
sound too flash, any of those genuinely making any difference
(02:32):
in what we're seeing.
Speaker 3 (02:34):
Yeah, it's not making a difference as far as we
can tell from the data. I mean, you had Joe
Biden who said that Trump supporters were garbage, which led
to Trump having a very interesting stunt where garbage Trump
picked him up in Green Bay on the airport and
he wore a sanitation uniform at his rally that day.
Speaker 4 (02:53):
You know.
Speaker 3 (02:55):
But the thing is, ninety something percent of the people
know what they think. They either love Trump or they
hate Trump, or they hate the Democrats or they love
the Republicans. There's a lot of froth. There's a lot
of signal or noise, but there's not a whole lot
of signal.
Speaker 1 (03:11):
You know.
Speaker 3 (03:11):
Most people have made their minds up. And this stuff
is taking the news for focusing the news in a way,
but it's not moving the numbers very much.
Speaker 4 (03:21):
What is the what is the lightest data?
Speaker 3 (03:24):
The latest data seemed to be that it's a toss up.
The real Clear Politics average has Trump up by a
couple of tents of the point, the Cook Politics average
has Harris up by a couple of tents. With our
electoral college system, Harris really needs to have a larger
lead than that to have a good shot at winning.
But of course the Harris campaign thinks they've got that,
And there was a poll that came out just a
(03:45):
couple hours ago that has Harris ahead in Io, which
everyone thought Trump would win by a large margin. So
there's dueling polsters and we'll see who ends up being right.
But the data suggests we're coming down to a dead heat.
Speaker 4 (03:59):
We have quite a lot.
Speaker 2 (04:00):
I think we've got quite a large advanced voting numbers.
Can you put that in give us the number on
that and put us in context historically.
Speaker 3 (04:08):
Yeah, So we have about seventy five million people who
have already cast votes. By the time election day comes around,
that'll be over eighty maybe as much as eighty five million.
That is probably the highest number we've ever had. It's
somewhere around I think fifty five percent of the expected turnout,
but it could be an indication that turnout will be
(04:29):
much higher than most people think. We had one hundred
and fifty nine million votes cast two years ago or
four years ago. People thought it'd be a little bit less,
but it might end up being more, and the advanced
vote might be an indication of that.
Speaker 2 (04:44):
Does the advance vote tell you anything in terms of
which side that might favor, because my gut reaction in
New Zealand would be advanced vote tends to go towards
the more idealistic voters.
Speaker 4 (04:54):
Does that tell you anything, you know?
Speaker 3 (04:57):
In the United States, the advanced vote has historically, in
the last couple of cycles tended to tilt to the
Democratic Party and Republicans have caught up on election day.
The advanced vote in a number of states is more
Republican than it was in the recent elections, and that
could indicate a shift to the right. But it's hard
(05:17):
to know because of course you can't be sure whether
or not that's an indication of the electorate or if
that's just a timing issue. You know, like if the
Democrats who are not voting in Georgia early when they
voted before, show up on election day, then it'll have
been a mirage. But the base of the early voting
so far has been more to the right than historic
(05:39):
and some people think that might be good news for Trump.
Speaker 2 (05:42):
In terms of the swing states, of course, are there
any of those that are really coming into the sharpest focus?
Speaker 3 (05:50):
Nevada is coming into sharp focus that we have probably
seventy five percent of the votes that we expect to
be cast are in Wow, and it is historically Republican.
There's only about a day or two left where mailed
ballots can arrive. If that doesn't change, if the Republicans
still have a significant lead, which would be is their
(06:13):
first lead in twenty years in a presidential year, that
would be a strong sign that there won't be enough
election day vote to turn it into Harris's corner.
Speaker 2 (06:22):
What's the risk of civil unrest do you think on
election day?
Speaker 3 (06:27):
I wish I could say that that was an urban legend,
but I think there's a reasonably high risk of sporadic rioting.
I don't think there's going to be anything organized. Certainly
neither candidate is going to do that. But when you
have tensions this high and probably a lot of drinking
going on during election night, you know this is a
(06:50):
country where when teams win the Stanley Cup or football,
their fans go out and riot and trash their city
when they're happy. Imagine what happens when they think their
candidate has lost.
Speaker 4 (07:00):
How long do you think it's going to be till
we know anything?
Speaker 3 (07:04):
You know I am more of an optimist. I think
we'll have a very strong sense of who is likely
to win by midnight Eastern Time. It would have to
be incredibly close for us to not have a direction,
and I think we'll have a pretty firm sense even
if the networks haven't called it by six in the
morning Wednesday Eastern Time.
Speaker 2 (07:22):
Okay, well, let's we might as well push you for
a production, but you prepared to call it for us today.
Speaker 3 (07:30):
My prediction shows up in the New York Post on Monday,
and I'm not going to scoop myself even though you
are many thousands of miles away.
Speaker 2 (07:38):
Well we are, But I guess the internet undoes us
on that school, doesn't it?
Speaker 4 (07:43):
Yes, it does. Wait, will you be on election Nott, Henry.
Speaker 3 (07:48):
I will be at the University of Houston and I'll
be doing a live stream of my analysis. I do
live analysis starting from six thirty Eastern time, and I'll
be doing a live stream I think, on my YouTube channel.
So people who are interested, can you know me on
x at Henry Olson EPPC. Get the link and as
(08:09):
results come in, I'll say what it means and whether
or not this is good or bad for either candidate
and give you a little give you more detail than
you want to know.
Speaker 2 (08:19):
Excellent, And just like you last, where are the candidates
going to be? Because there was some confusion here. I
think there was one of the reasons we weren't sending
one of this one of our people might not be going,
So I don't know where to go to hang out
with Harris.
Speaker 4 (08:32):
Do we know where Harris and Trump are going to
be on election not?
Speaker 3 (08:36):
They haven't told us yet exactly. There's rumors that Trump
is going to be in West Palm Beach at Maro Lago,
but that has not been confirmed, and I do not
think that Harris has said where her election night party is.
Speaker 2 (08:49):
Okay, well, he look, we really appreciate your Timmy. You're
insight this afternoon. And have fun on election night, Henry.
Speaker 3 (08:57):
I always do, even though it's exhausting and grueling. When
one hundred and sixty million votes in the world's largest
west d democracy or cast, how can it be anything
but fun?
Speaker 4 (09:09):
Excellent.
Speaker 2 (09:10):
I really appreciate your time this afternoon. I think it's
your evening, isn't it. So thanks for much. It is cheers,
thank you, thank care, bye bye. That is Henry Olsen.
He is an analyst and polster in the States and
you will have heard his Twitter details. He has called
the last he called I mean, I think if you've
called the first election in twenty sixteen for Trump, he
called that one, and he called the results of the
last one. And go and check out his Twitter feed,
(09:31):
but interesting insight.
Speaker 1 (09:33):
For more from the Weekend Collective, listen live to News
Talks'd be weekends from three pm, or follow the podcast
on iHeartRadio.
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