April 26, 2025 • 41 mins
How can a three bedroom built in the '90s sell for significantly more than a new build of a similar size right down the street?
Driving through established suburbs, it's pretty easy to tell what has been built in the past five years, because they all look exactly the same.
Providing a higher quantity of housing has come at the cost of heritage and individuality.
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from News Talks.
Speaker 2 (00:43):
And welcome back to the show. This is the Weekend Collective.
I'm Tim Beverage. This is the one Roof radio show.
By the way, if you've missed any of our hours
or you've got to nip out or something, you want
to catch the rest of it because you just have to,
then you can go to our news You can catch
our podcast. Just go to the News Talk SI website
or to iHeartRadio, look for the Weekend Collective and away
you go from there. For this hour, we're gonna have
a chat about doesn't matter what sort of whether it's
(01:07):
a new build or sort of a more of a
heritage house on the property, and how does that how
does that actually affect the value of property, not just
the particular property itself, but also in the neighborhood as well.
Anyway to discuss that and other questions we're going to
get on too. We're joined by He's the chief economist
at Core Logic. He's become a bit of a regular
(01:28):
on the show. I think he almost needs no more
introduction other than Calvin Davidson.
Speaker 3 (01:31):
Hello, how's it going? Not too bad? What's been keeping
you out of mischief lately.
Speaker 4 (01:38):
Work, family, you know, just the usual juggle, it seems
never ending. But the alternative have nothing to do would
be worse.
Speaker 3 (01:45):
So good you.
Speaker 2 (01:46):
Weren't like many of the workforce that decided Hang on
a minute, if I take three days off here, I
can get a nine, nine or ten day holiday with
the whole Anzac and Easter.
Speaker 4 (01:57):
And yeah, no, colleaguester for sure. I just love my
job so much genuinely that I find out to take leave. No,
but I mean, you know, it's not the worst week
to actually be at work because you're not getting heressled
with emails, So good chance to get some some things
ticked off the to do list.
Speaker 2 (02:18):
Yeah, look, I wanted to dig into and I don't
know if you how the data goes with this sort
of thing. But also, as someone who's observing the property
market all.
Speaker 3 (02:27):
The time, how so you can get a three.
Speaker 2 (02:31):
Bedroom home that's built in the nineties versus a new
build of a similar size right down the street, and
one will have a completely different value to the other.
And look, this is for you listening as well. What
does the house that is on the property make a
big difference when it comes to your investment choices. Do
(02:52):
people like new builds or not. If you are looking
to live in something, you might love a new build,
But if you're looking to buy something with a bit
of character, you might.
Speaker 3 (03:02):
Think it's got more value.
Speaker 2 (03:04):
Are there any Is there any data that sort of
measures that side of things?
Speaker 4 (03:09):
Yeah, I mean it can be a little bit tricky
to measure, and I think in the end, really a
lot of this comes down to that balance of supply
and demand is sort of cliched economics, isn't it. And
possibly you might say, well, there's fewer heritage properties. You know,
you might say less supply equals a higher price, But
of course they might be less demand as well. So
I think for most properties, you'll tend to see that
(03:31):
demand is in some kind of proportion to supply. And
of course we know at the moment lots of people
are pretty keen to buy new builds. Certainly investors were
keen on new builds going back a couple of years
when the tax rules were shifted against existing properties or
older properties, so that investors were incentivized to look at
new builds. And of course I think the mix of
properties that's coming through makes a difference term. And if
(03:54):
you think of all the new builds lately and certainly
around Auckland have been townhouses as opposed to standalone houses. Now, yes,
if you look at the same type of property will
probably cost you a little bit more than an existing property.
But the fact that a lot of the new bills
lately have been smaller, they've been townhouses as opposed to
(04:14):
existing houses, so they do come cheaper. So yeah, there's
there's been people pretty keen certainly first time y is
pretty keen to look at those townhouses. They're nice and new, smaller,
they're cheaper, so that gives them an incentive to look
at that. But generally, what I think you see in
the data really is that if you get a three
bedroom existing property versus a three bedroom new property, that
(04:35):
new one might cost you a little bit more. But
there will be certain people who like a certain type
of property. And you I'm thinking here of the classic
sort of Auckland villa, you know, the town those villas
and Premiu era Ponsonby and Premium. Yeah, that's right, yep.
So I think really in the end it's sources for courses.
I mean, I guess what what we've seen lately with
(04:57):
the tax rules that has incentivized people to look at
new builds. Of course, those tax rules have been sort
of backpeddled a little bit now so that that camp
is shifting a little bit. But yeah, I think really
it's horses of course, as taste in the end matters,
and they will determine the price.
Speaker 3 (05:11):
I guess. I mean this sounds controversial.
Speaker 2 (05:15):
I'm just sort of making up as I go along here,
Although this is a pre prepared sort of thought, because
you do get these developments when suddenly there's you'll see
a townhouse development and there's a bunch of new properties
that have suddenly arrived, And as an investment, that'd be
the last thing I'd ever buy, because all that's going
(05:36):
to happen is the new house that you're so proud
of in a couple of years time is going to
be that one that's not the new house. Because we
constantly are doing so much building at the moment, and
it feels that it's an investor low maintenance for sure,
But in terms.
Speaker 3 (05:50):
Of property value, I don't know.
Speaker 2 (05:52):
I'd just be very cynical about it.
Speaker 4 (05:56):
Yeah, it depends on what people are looking for. Obviously,
in your budget and all that sort of thing, and
certain suburbs, a certain type of property will be more
popular than there's in certain suburbs. It's just what's there
that that will determine what you have to buy them.
And if you if you're looking to buy an investment
property in Central Auckland, well pretty much you're getting an apartment,
aren't you. So it's it's a little bit sort of
(06:16):
circular about what's what people actually want versus what's there
and they have no choice about. But yeah, certainly there's
there are some questions, I guess being raised at the
moment about saying oversupply of townhouses. So you know, if
you think about from an investor's perspective, if people are
looking to buy a property, they might go, Okay, well, yep,
that that townhouse is nice and near you, maybe I
(06:38):
can get it at at a good price. But you know,
if there's an oversupply, then potentially there's going to be
less capital growth on that in the future. And I
think there's a pretty strong treat record that a lot
of the capital growth over time comes from the land anyway.
So you know, if you tend to see that the
bigger standalone houses will tend to appreciate a little bit
faster over time because simply because they have more land. So, yeah,
(07:01):
the new built townhouses may look fairly appealing at the moment,
But if there is an oversupply, and I find that
a little bit of a tricky concept because.
Speaker 2 (07:11):
In the either beholder, isn't it if you're Chris Bishop,
there's not an oversupply of townhouses. We're starting to nail
it and it's bloody good news.
Speaker 4 (07:19):
Yeah, that's right. Yeah, And I think in some ways,
you know, demand expands to meet the supply. You know,
probably for a while there during COVID, people were finding
housing very, very expensive, so you saw the number of
people per house go up. But as that balance sort
of eases out a little bit, those people who were
otherwise cramped up and you know, five people or six
people to a house or whatever, can if affordability allows them,
(07:43):
they can spread out and create their own new household.
So that demand sort of filters out to meet the supply.
So yeah, I find sort of oversupply away bit of
a tricky concept, the same as undersupply. Really, I think
what you see is that it's not as if we
ever end up with a whole swathe of empty houses
or people cramping up in ten per house. I think
(08:04):
it's just sort of these things are just over time.
But yeah, I mean I think you've sort of touched
on a point which I think is really important and
simply that you know, you might argue about, well, will
this property get less capital growth than time or more
or whatever. But I think for a country as a whole,
we're going to need more houses, and so you know
that the government's moves to increase housing supply, I mean
(08:26):
it has to be a good thing. More houses of
all types and all locations, catering to all vice points.
That helps affordability over time and access to the market.
And you know, yes, people might put a premium on
having a big villa on a big plot of land,
but for the country as a whole, you might argue that,
you know, intensifying that land, putting putting six townhouses on
(08:47):
it would actually serve us better. So I think we
need we need both types of property, We need all
types of property. Everything intensification over time is probably going
to be a good thing.
Speaker 2 (08:56):
Okay, So the question I've got for you, if you listening,
we'd love to have your cause on this is if
you're buying a house, or if you bought one, why
did or didn't you buy a new build? Because everyone's
got their reasons for buying different types of property. And
I'm going to dig into a little bit because we've
got the data guy here. I'm not sure if I
should call you, as chief economist at Call Logic, the
(09:16):
data guy, Kelvin Davidson, but I might try and dig
into actually what what the data is looking like in
terms of the supply of housing in general and.
Speaker 3 (09:24):
What we're building.
Speaker 2 (09:25):
But for you, if you're looking to buy a house,
and let's say as an investment, are you more attracted
by a new build or do you look for something
that's got a bit of work that you might have
to do because you're looking to add value? What's more attractive?
Why did or didn't you? Or would or wouldn't you
buy a new build? Eight hundred and eighty ten eighty.
But let's let's get into the course right away, shall we.
Speaker 5 (09:47):
Peter, Hello, good born an old heritage building versus building
a brand new house. Some people in the last couple
of years, the price has gone up more than double
for materials, Is that right?
Speaker 4 (10:03):
Yeah? I mean double seems quite high for some individual
projects potentially, But yeah, on our indicator, we've got a
construction cost index, which, off the top of my head,
I mean that the cost might have been up in
the past three or four years, perhaps sort of twenty
five to thirty percent. That's for that's across materials and wages. Now,
(10:24):
probably wages haven't quite risen that much, So if you
average that out, the total build cost gone up about
let's call it thirty percent. You know, maybe wages are
up fifteen or twenty so materials that materials component might
have been forty or fifty percent up potentially, and individual materials,
some of them might be up potentially one hundred percent.
Certainly we saw that shortage of plaster board during COVID.
(10:45):
But overall, if you exclude the land, our index says
that the overall cost to build a relatively standard new
property has increased substantially. But a doubling or in other words,
one hundred percent growth would be pretty high. But individual
projects may well have seen that sort of figure at
four certain materials. I would say, what.
Speaker 2 (11:04):
Are you more attracted to as a property investor, Peter,
Are you interested in new build so do you like
to find that sort of character house.
Speaker 5 (11:12):
Well, I generally find the new builds don't have the room.
I went through a nice new build. I was very impressed.
Four hundred and forty square meter that was the building.
And for services you can walk. You could go up
the stairs into the attic and your head could not
touch the roof. You could walk straight down from one
(11:34):
end to the house to the other in the attic.
In all your services like heat clumps and all that.
We're easy access because the person designed to these traits
in these days don't have in the ladders. You've got
to have your own, yourself sufficient for people to get
access into your roof.
Speaker 2 (11:50):
That sounds like a one off new build, doesn't it.
That doesn't sound like sort of one of one of many.
Speaker 5 (11:56):
No, No, it's a beautiful place. And I think, you know,
access to your services are very important and if you
you know, I think having a stepped together into the
epic where it might be as important. But I just
think a lot of new builds without garrets, like in
(12:16):
Crosiers for example, I think that they've got too many
of them, and the market is.
Speaker 2 (12:28):
Peter there's a bit of there's a bit of feedback
on the line this we might have to move on there,
but I'm sorry about that. But a bit of a
bit of noisory bounding on your call there, Peter. Actually,
I guess the question around the heritage and new is well,
maybe that's you actually, Calvin. In fact, I'll tell you
what I think. We might have a little bit of
feedback bouncing back. Well, we'll take a break and I'll
(12:49):
just get we'll sort things some things out technically here
this is news talk, sai'd be so maybe, by the way,
before we go to the break, I think the the
question is more.
Speaker 3 (13:00):
About the neighborhood as well.
Speaker 2 (13:02):
Are you launched in buying in a neighborhood where it's
more the original housing? And I was driving around a
place where my parents used to live and there's not
a single new building site because there's no need for it.
The houses are probably all thirty, twenty, thirty forty years old.
Is that the sort of neighborhood where you think you'd
be interested in investing in, or do you like the
neighborhoods which are gradually getting taken over by the new builds,
(13:25):
or does it's kind of the uniformity kind of mean,
it doesn't feel so attractive all that all of a sudden,
and we can all imagine different sorts of developments where
we might think it looks lovely and other ones where
we think.
Speaker 3 (13:36):
Not so much.
Speaker 2 (13:37):
It's twenty past four. This is Newstalk, said b the
one with radio show eight hundred eighty ten eighty text
nine to nine two of it back in just to
take let's welcome back to the wonder Off radio show
(14:03):
on Tim Bevers. My guest is Call and Davidson. He's
a chief, he's the chief economistic call logic.
Speaker 3 (14:08):
We're talking about.
Speaker 2 (14:11):
Is it better to buy new builds? Why did or
did you not buy a new build? And is that
relevant when it comes to assessing the value of an
investment property or more not maybe even less specifically, is
it the.
Speaker 3 (14:26):
Character of the neighborhood that's more important?
Speaker 2 (14:29):
Would you be interested in buying something as part of
a whole new development neighborhood or do you prefer to
invest your money and sort of slightly the New Zealand
that's maybe twenty or thirty years older in terms of
the houses that are on the street. I wait, one
hundred and eighty ten eights the number text nine two
nine TiO. We'd love to have your call, so get
on the blow and we'll talk to you soon. Any
other question, If you've got some questions for Calvin Davidson
(14:50):
around what the data is revealing in the property market,
I think this is probably the time you should give
us a call as well, because I'm going to ask Calvin,
what's what is the story with supply and demand and
are there interesting stories that it's us about what we're
building and how much and all that, and how happy
would Chris Bishop be?
Speaker 4 (15:10):
Yeah, I think probably fairly happy at the moment. Even
though the construction industry has been in a downturn for
a couple of years, really, but it was coming off
probably an unsustainably high peak. So if you go back
a couple of years, we had dwelling consents about fifty
thousand on an annual basis. Now most estimates of actual
capacity to build houses in any given year are more
like sort of thirty to thirty five thousand, So, you know,
(15:33):
even though the downturn has been pretty deep, it was
coming off a very high level. So it's probably back
now too roughly about normal in terms of dwelling consents. Now,
not all dwelling consents reach actual completion or get turned
into a house. We've estimated about sort of eighty percent
of dwelling consents get turned into a house eventually about
eighteen months down the track, and the conversion rate into
(15:56):
actual housing stock, because keep in mind, certainly will say
the Auckland Unitary Plan, it took demolitions to allow that
info housing to happen. So we estimate of about five
percent of demolitions. So the pass through rate from dwelling
consents to actual net change in housing stock existing houses
on the ground is about seventy five percent. So along
the way sort of you lose twenty five percent. So yeah,
(16:19):
that's kind of our conversion rate. But in general, we've
I think we're seeing dwelling consents bottom out at the
moment at around sort of thirty three thirty four thousand. Yes,
came from a very high peak, but now back to
something like normal. And I think if you look across
a lot of housing market indicators, things like house prices
still relatively flat. Yes, there's a whole bunch of things
affect them, but relatively flat. Housing rents are relatively flat.
(16:42):
Now not saying these things are cheap or going down necessarily,
but they have flattened off, and I think that's probably
consistent of the market that's reasonably well balanced. Certainly, you know,
we're not seeing the headlines at the moment of mess
housing shortages that we might have seen at certain times
in the past, So I think the market's fairly well balanced.
Is a lot of choice. If you want a certain
type of property, you'll probably be able to find it.
(17:04):
We've seen net migration slow down a lot as well,
so overall population growth isn't as strong as it was,
so supply has been remped up, demands come off a
little bit, and so I think, you know, we're seeing
those things flatten off now from the government's perspective and
use they want a lot more housing in future. They're
pushing so hard on all of these measures and underwriting
developers and the reform of the RIMA and to whatever else.
(17:26):
Streamlining consent process is a whole bunch of things. I
probably left off five or six there now. So they
certainly want a lot more supply coming through in future,
and I think you have to take a step back
and say this is what we need, This is a
good thing, we need housing supply. We don't want the
shortages that we might have had in the past. So yeah,
there's I think generally it's a little bit hard to
(17:47):
measure whether the housing market's over under supplied, And like
I said earlier, it's a concept I sort of struggle
with a little bit anyway, But yeah, I think there's
a gap fear at the moment, I suppose that tells
you the market is fairly well balanced, and if the
government can be successful with pushing through these supply measures,
was reason to be relatively optimistic in future that supply
(18:08):
will match demand and when we have flatter prices.
Speaker 2 (18:11):
What actually just why we're on the on this topic
of supply and demand. And you mentioned migration there because
I used to track it quite closely. In fact, even
had some discussions with the migration with the Stats Department
about the way they used to report their statistics, which
I thought was misleading. But the where are we with migration?
(18:33):
Because my distant sort of impression is that we're losing
more people than we're gaining. But are we still got
net positive migration?
Speaker 3 (18:39):
Have we?
Speaker 4 (18:40):
Yeah? We still do, yes, on a twelve month rolling
basis net this is net now there's a lot of
moving parts here. I'll try and be as clear as
I can on a twelve month rolling basis, so you
sum it all up over twelve months. The net migration figures,
so arrivals minus departures that peaked at one hundred and
thirty five thousand somewhere around the are if you go
(19:01):
back maybe eighteen months, very very high. That there was
a record high. There's been huge gyrations in these numbers
with COVID, artificial barriers and all of that, but it
peaked around about one hundred and thirty hundred and forty
thousand mark. It's come right down now to around thirty thousand,
they think, off the top of my head. So still positive,
and now that is a twelve month rolling basis. Even
(19:24):
on a monthly basis, though, I feel like simply a
month by month profile, I don't think there's been a
month in there where we've actually lost people. So in
net terms, there still has been more arrivals than departures.
It's just that the gap is a lot smaller than
it used to be. And so yeah, there's still people
keen on coming to New Zealand. We do. But the
thing I guess the big thing about the net migration
balance is that it can mask two extreme numbers. And
(19:46):
I suppose when well, going back for the last three
or four years, there's been a lot of departures. It's
just that there's also been a lot of arrivals. And
I guess there was always the concern if we did
see those arrivals come down, people suddenly decided, you know,
I don't want to go to New Zealand anymore, ago
to Australia or UK or wherever. Suddenly we're, you know,
(20:08):
the Emperor, the Emperor's New Clothes scenario. We'd suddenly find
that those departures are still going on. People are still
keen to head to Australia going their oe and we
end up with tapping into the negatives. We lose skilled labor,
it slows down their economy, that sort of thing. Now,
I don't think we've really reached that level yet, And
if anything, it looks like net migration is sort of
flattening off at around about that thirty thousand on an
(20:30):
annual basis, so probably a more sustainable number that is
around about the average for what it's worth.
Speaker 2 (20:37):
Yeah, sorry, net migrations. What about twenty five thousand moment.
Speaker 4 (20:42):
Twenty five or thirty ye off top of my head,
more like thirty thousand on a twelve month rolling basis,
So you're getting sort of two thousand and two and
a half thousand month by month and net turns. So yeah,
people are still keen to come, not as strongly as
they were.
Speaker 2 (20:54):
See, I'm just trying to get if we've you know,
we've been a net positive growth migration wise for a
reasonable length of time now, and that has spanned growth
and dip in the market, hasn't it. We've still been
importing people. Can you give us an economist point of
view as to why demand for property in terms of
purchasing sense of slacked off so much? Because intuitively you'd
(21:16):
think of there's more people coming here with demand for housing.
What how How does it not feel that there's a
bit more urgency to buy houses because we're constantly growing.
Speaker 4 (21:30):
Yeah, there's there's going to be a lot of moving
parts in there as well, Things like at what rate
to people occupy houses? In terms of migrants first leaving citizens,
you know that sort of thing. Could migrants come in
and live four people per house as opposed to departing
citizens who are maybe two per house and whatever those
are stylized numbers. But so all of that will be
going on. It's that mix of occupancy rates. But by
(21:51):
keep in mine also the foreign buyer band. So you know,
unless you're Australian or Singaporean, those those two countries are
all very very wealthy and investing. I think it's in
big department developments. If you're not in those categories, forever
difficult to actually buy a house, so you you will
probably be pushed into the rental sector anyway. Not only that,
(22:12):
not only the foreign buyer band, but you know, I've
been a migrant before I went an away to the
UK for a number of years and you know, okay,
I bought a house eventually, but you know, you for
a start you go into.
Speaker 2 (22:22):
Renting or is it just or is it I'm just anticipating.
One of your qualifications to that is that rents are
not growing. But is it because actually rents are still
quite high and so there's only a limit to what
people can can pay.
Speaker 4 (22:41):
Yep, yep. That's we've seen that through time. That that
is a really key driver. And you know, you see
it at certain times landlords costs go up and the
sort of standard assumption as well, rents will go up
because landlords have got higher costs, they'll try to push
rents up. Actually, the history tells you that rental growth
is more about tenants affordability than landlords costs, So you know,
it's what the market will tolerate. And at the moment
(23:03):
on our measures, rents as high in relation to household
incomes as they've ever been.
Speaker 3 (23:08):
So rent it's not actually wonderful, is it out there?
For your rent It's still.
Speaker 4 (23:12):
No, No, it's not no. And there are other factors
for rents as well. I mean, even though we still
have net positive migration, there's been a lot more supply
coming to that rental market too. Part of that is
all the new builds being completed being pushed out into rentals,
maybe because investors have bought them and are now renting
them out. But also we hear a lot about developers
who might have intended to sell those new properties but
(23:33):
haven't been able to or haven't been able to sort
of recoup their costs, so have kept them and they
are renting them out. But also just anecdotically, I guess
a little bit of people switching out of short term
holiday rentals into the sort of more long term traditional sector. Again,
so it's the supplying demand again, sounds cliched, but for
those rental properties, rents are already high, so that's the
natural barrier, but supplying demand is shifted too. Well.
Speaker 2 (23:56):
Love your cause on this, by the way, on your
take on the property market, but in particular the role
of new builds. Is it something that you find appealing
in buying into a new buildighborhood or do you prefer
to go for something which is a little bit more
slightly old school? Calvin, I do love it when an
economist uses the word anecdotally because it sounds like you're
being very, very naughty, because in the end core logic,
(24:21):
it's got to be about the numbers, isn't it. How
much I mean, I've asked you this before, I'm sure,
but just as a mischievous question, what does the role
of anecdote play? Because if you are analyzing data all
the time, you were also heavily immersed in all things property,
aren't you. So it's not like you're just it's a
casual anecdote. But you would talk, you know, there would
(24:42):
be discussions from you'd be talking to people all the
time who will share stuff that's not necessarily hard data data,
but there's anecdotes.
Speaker 3 (24:52):
How does that inform your job?
Speaker 4 (24:55):
Yeah, I think it's important. I think it's very important. Actually.
I mean, you know, ultimately we'll want to be judging
anything based on the hard data, the big samples coming
what we see coming into our systems through councils and
all that sort of thing aggregated up. But of course
sometimes there's lags with that sort of stuff, and you
want to really have your finger on the pulse in
terms of what's going on right now. So yeah, because
(25:17):
there can be lags from what happens on the ground
to it hitting data that could be a month or
two or three, you know, depending on sort of publication schedules.
So for me, I really like, yes, like I say,
we base a lot of it on the hard data
through our systems, but I really value those anecdotes as
well because it tells you, it gives you an early
signal of what's sort of going on right now. You know,
(25:39):
we're talking to a state agent's, banks, lenders, at the
front line valuers, all sorts of people are who are
dealing with real customers right now. And I think that
you've got to be careful about how you use it,
and I never want to sort of overplay it. But
also you probably have a little bit of a gut
feel about what sort of should be happening, and if
the anecdotes square with that, then you probably think, okay,
(26:00):
that that makes a bit of sense. But if you
hear stuff that's a little bit yeah, I don't know.
If it passes this the sniff test, then I'll probably
put it into my sort of collection of anecdotes, which
then you might see become hard data down the track.
But the sniff test is important as well.
Speaker 2 (26:15):
That's funny because in terms of people who make their
own decisions around property, most the average punter would be
heavily anecdotally influence, wouldn't they unless they are incredibly busy
and heavily invested property investor and experienced.
Speaker 4 (26:30):
Yeah, oh that's right. Yeah, And that's why you have
to be careful as a commentator on the market as
a whole, that you don't put too much weight on anecdotes.
But also I think it's really important to have a
degree of humility, because if I present to clients or
talk to the media, I'm generally thinking about averages, but
of course nobody buys the average. You know, everybody has
an individual experience, so I think you have to be
(26:52):
sort of just a little bit careful about using data
that's too aggregated as well, and also recognize that, you know,
I might tell you that a rental yield for an
investor is five percent or whatever across the market as
a whole, but there'll be some investors savvy buyers out
there who can buy an individual property and it is
getting double that potentially, and so that investment looks really good.
(27:13):
When if I talk about the investment market on average
and aggregate, you might say, well, it's a little bit questionable.
Not that it is now we've seen investors coming back,
but as a stylized thing, you know, we might see
some stuff in our data that says, well, you know,
it's a little bit tricky, but if you're buying an
individual property, you might be getting an absolute bargain getting
a high rent, So that's a good deal. So there's yeah,
(27:35):
there's a balance with everything.
Speaker 2 (27:36):
I suppose how easy is it to measure who's buying
the property when it comes to investors versus people who
want to buying it to live in, and actually it
just remind us what that data has done recently.
Speaker 4 (27:51):
Yeah, well, actually, very easy for us. We have Aquology
Buyo Classification series, which which we look at all deals
that are taking place and we classify each of those
each of those deals into buyer buckets, so we can
quantify first home buyers. That's so, for example, we define
a first home buyer as somebody who's using mortgage and
hasn't had their name on a title before. So there
(28:12):
might be a few gray years, but generally that's what
people would think of as a first home buyer. They're
using debt, I've never owned a property before, so.
Speaker 3 (28:19):
We can just stopping you there. Of course we'll enter
through this.
Speaker 2 (28:21):
So there literally you can databases of the names of
all property owners and you can search and go, this
is a new name, or if it's the same name,
it's a different address, probably different a person. You can
measure that pretty quickly.
Speaker 4 (28:34):
Yeah, well, there's that. It comes through the title data,
through councils, through land information, so it's ultimately all transactions
carry on. Yeah, so yeah, we classify all those buyers
so we can look at and you touched on there
somebody who's a mover as we call them, or a
relocating owner occupier. We saw them sell a property and
(28:55):
show up in another property sort of sometime down the track.
And investors of course as well, so we call it
multiple property owners. So where people have got their name
on two or three or five or ten or one
hundred titles, that sort of thing. So now there's always
little gray areas with us, but generally for us, yep,
very easy. We can measure all of that. And what
we have seen lately is that there's I mean, there's
(29:18):
more buying from everybody. The property market is getting busier,
so we're getting more first home buyers, more investors, more
relocating owner occupiers. Everyone's sort of heating up a little bit.
But part of that also is the market shares are
shifting a little bit. And I suppose one thing that
people really focus on, and I don't think it's all
that helpful, but this sort of perceived battle between investors
(29:38):
and between first home buyers, and you know, people think, oh, wow,
you can only have one or the other. Actually you
can have both, and we need both. We need first
time buyers in the market. We need investors to provide
those rental properties. But just in terms of market share
at the moment, what we're seeing is the first home
buyers are just tailing off a little bit in terms
of their percentage share of activity, but it's coming off
a record high. So first home buyers have been very
(29:59):
active and our tailing off just ever so slightly. And
we're seeing investors or those mortgaged multiple property owners to
start to come back into the market and you're just
to down interest inductibilities back. So things have shifted in
their favor. But so market share is shifting by keep
in mind what I said at the start there that
everybody is buying more properties, so the pie is getting bigger,
and within that, you know, the shar has changed a
(30:21):
little bit.
Speaker 2 (30:22):
Okay, right, we're going to take a break and just
but we love your cause. If you've got any questions
for Calvin, then give us a call on e one
hundred and eighty ten eighty. But also we started the
conversation talking about new builds. But as conversations do evolve,
But what would you look for if you were looking
to buy a house, if to be an investment or
a look if you're first home buy you wouldn't it
be just like I just want to find a nice
(30:42):
house to live and it's dry and warm and in
the location that I want. Ultimately, But what what's your preference?
New or something existing? You can do something too. It
is twenty to five News Talks.
Speaker 6 (30:53):
B Yes, welcome back to the one roof radio show.
Speaker 2 (31:14):
I'm Tim Beverage. My guest is Calvin Davidson. He's the
chief economist at Call Logic, and clearly from his request
today a Bruce Springsteen fan, I would say, yeah, yep, huge.
Speaker 3 (31:26):
Good, good stuff.
Speaker 2 (31:27):
Hey, let's get through a few texts, sir we Calvin, Okay,
does your guest reckon that new granny flat buildings will
become a big boost for the market and further subdivision
of some sites.
Speaker 4 (31:39):
I've got to say, I mean, if the question is
a yes or no answer, I've got to say no.
I mean, yeah, some people may see some value in
putting a granny flat on the back of the section,
but I'm not convinced it's going to transform the market.
I think probably it's it's best feared as a sort
of as part of that bigger recipe of lots of
different initiatives that the government's taking to increase supply. That
(32:01):
might not necessarily change things on their own, but when
you add them all together, we could see a bit
of a transformation. So yeah, not on its own, but
it's a helpful change in terms of that wider policy mix.
Speaker 3 (32:13):
Can you measure that?
Speaker 2 (32:14):
Will you be able to know when someone's shoved the
branny flat on the back?
Speaker 4 (32:18):
Yeah? Well, well hopefully, I mean, you know, because part
of this is that you don't have to go through
the consenting process to get as long as it's less
than I think seventy square meters now, isn't it, which
for me is actually a pretty sizable still. Yeah, so
and you know they're not It's not like this per
square meter rate is necessarily any cheaper than any other
type of property, so it's still still could cost quite
(32:40):
a bit. But I think that part of it is
that you still have to tell the council at least
that you're doing it, tell them you started, and tell
them you finished. So yeah, hopefully there'll be some tracking
of those sorts of projects. Like I said, I'm not
sure it's going to suddenly produce an extra ten or
twenty thousand dwellings a year or anything, but helpful is
part of the wider mix.
Speaker 2 (32:59):
Okay, another one's here says people are forgetting about tax
deductibility of labor is to change the rules again. At
least new builds are exempt. Obviously you don't necessarily track
policy constantly at core logic, But do you think there's
any chance that we're going to see more tumult when
it comes to tax policy and investment and property, because
(33:20):
property investment's not exactly on fire right now, is it.
Speaker 4 (33:23):
No? I mean, like I said, are people are coming back?
I mean the text rules have turned back in favor
of investors again since since National has been back, and
so that is helping people come back to the market.
I mean, yeah, who knows what's going to happen in future.
You'd have to change the government first, and you know
that may not necessarily be the next election. Who knows.
There's so much uncertainty about that. But yeah, I think
(33:44):
I mean, property investors I talk to are alert to
that possibility that we probably will see a change of
government at some point in the future, and yeah, we
definitely will. Yeah. I don't want to come up too
much then, but yeah, I think that's a pretty safe assumption.
So and yeah, what weapons at the time. I mean,
like I said, investors I speak to are pretty alert
(34:04):
to that possible lily, that we see a change of
government at some stage, and introductibility does change back again,
and so I think people are probably factoring that into
their sums if they can now. You know, there's only
so much uncertainty you can price them right now. And
ultimately you've got to make a decision if you know,
if you do nothing, well you'll get nothing. So people
(34:25):
do have to make decisions, you know, at some stage.
But yeah, that's that is that. But I mean, I
think in the end though a lot, for a lot
of investors, it is about mortgage rates. It's about the
gap between rent and a smaller text bill helps or
a bigger tax bill doesn't help. But really it's about
what's the gap between how much rent I can get
and how much the mortgage is going to cost me.
And at the moment that gap has closed a lot,
(34:47):
and so people are coming back to the investment market.
Go back two or three years when mortgage rates were
pushing up seven or eight percent, it was very very difficult.
So for me that's still the biggest thing. But tax
bills can at the margin have an impact too.
Speaker 2 (35:00):
This one's probably slightly outside your comfort zone, but we'll
throw it out there anyway, because we can all have
an opinion on things. It's a high time we have
an old villa which unfortunately we have to sell and
move to a cheaper option. Were renovated in twenty twelve.
Do you think it's general in general it's better to
renovate or sell as is? Do you have a take
on that in terms of what or even any does
(35:22):
any data tell us anything about.
Speaker 4 (35:23):
That tricky one? Yeah, I'm not sure i'd have I'm
not sure i'd have too much for you on that.
I guess one thing, and I think your guest last
week on the on the win Roof radio show was
talking about this. The you know, the way that people
are making money or some people are making money at
the moment. Yeah, yeah, is to renovate. And you can
sort of see how that's working because the people are
(35:46):
still having If you buy a new build, not much
you can do to it. You are probably going to
top up that property to some extent, used to top up
to be less than what they were. But yeah, that
show is all about sort of how do you really
kick up their value at the start, and you renovate
something so urs just for cours as a game.
Speaker 2 (36:02):
What would you do if you're looking for an investment
property would you would you be just sort of buying
a nice property that you think is going to deliver
a decent rental yield and sit on it for a while,
or would you.
Speaker 3 (36:11):
Do it up?
Speaker 4 (36:12):
Yeah, I mean I'm not a practical person by any
means with.
Speaker 3 (36:17):
Their own hands.
Speaker 4 (36:19):
Yeah, I mean, it's you've got to have I think
when it comes to renovations probably, I mean, you know,
there's no financial advice here or anything, but I think
when it comes to renovations, you want to have a
good team around you and either have the skills yourself
or no people who can be able to do that
at a good price. So, I mean, you would think
the safer option is probably to buy something that doesn't
need renovation and you sort of sit on it. Now,
(36:41):
you know, that's that's got questions at the moment as well,
because I mean I think in future, capital growth rates
could be lower than what they've been in the past,
so those returns that people might get might be a
little bit lower. There's still be returns there, but yeah,
big decisions for people.
Speaker 2 (36:56):
Intuitively, actually, they would have to be loved because I
remember we've I mean this will triggered one of my
guests or we've had on a regularly on the show.
But you know there was the figure about the property
value every so many years. But that's just mathematically not
possible for that to be consistent all the time.
Speaker 3 (37:10):
It's just it's not is it.
Speaker 4 (37:13):
No, that's right, yeah, And part of it. One thing
we've got in this cycle which we haven't had in
past cycles is restrictions on debt to income ratios for
mortgage lending, which isn't doing anything right now really, but
we'll start to do so as serviceability test rates of
the banks come down. People could theoretically afford a bigger loan,
but that's when the debt to income ratio restrictions kick in.
(37:35):
So it's something we haven't had in the past. But
there's other drivers as well. We can't have the same
long term downwards stream and mortgage rates that we've had historically.
That's a big factor. Who knows the tech system might
look a little bit different in future. Land supply situation
shifting around here that if this government can make these
changes stick. All of those factors argue for the less
capital growth and future and ultimately your ratio of our
(37:58):
sort of value to incomes can't keep going up forever.
So yeah, there is a there is a limit there.
But again, these are averages. Individually, people will be able
to get bargains, they'll be able to get just the
same capital growth as what they might have had in
the past. So again that humility about averages versus individual deals,
I think is important.
Speaker 3 (38:16):
Good stuff.
Speaker 2 (38:17):
Right, We're going to take a moment, come back. The
one roof property of the week is next. This is
news Talks. He'd be the one roof radio show. It's
nine and a half minutes to five.
Speaker 1 (38:25):
The one roof property of the week on the weekend collective.
Speaker 2 (38:29):
Yes, the one roof property of the week is Look,
they're all fascinating, They're always always fascinating.
Speaker 3 (38:34):
But it is. It's an old church.
Speaker 1 (38:37):
It is.
Speaker 3 (38:38):
I'll tell you what their dress is.
Speaker 2 (38:39):
It's ninety six a centennial avenue to Adaha near Matamata, Matamata, Piaco,
I think is the official it's a bit of a
it doesn't sound like much. In the description it says
one bedroom, one bathroom, zero car garage. Calvin, how do
I describe this? It's basically they've ripped the pews out.
(38:59):
It's still got the organ and the pulpit and an
opportunity perhaps.
Speaker 4 (39:08):
Yeah, well, I mean for someone I got to say
not probably to my taste. You know, we're talking about
new builds for his heritage property. So I'm very much
in the new built camp. I live in a reasonable
new house, so I like double glazing and insulation that
sort of thing. This looks very much like Grand Designs
type project, doesn't it. So yeah, not for me, but
there'd be certain people out there who really like that
(39:30):
sort of thing. I mean that description of one bedroom,
I mean it's open plan would be very good description.
So yeah, yeah for somebody, probably not to my taste.
But like horses for course, is everyone's a buyer for everything.
Speaker 2 (39:44):
Yeah, So it looks like it has been a church
until recently and they've whoever's got it, they're basically just
taken the pews out there, left the I mean the pulpit.
I guess, you know, if dad wants to have a
chat with the kids, it's like serious time. It's like, right,
everyone sit there, I'm going to get into the pulpit
because you're all in trouble. But yes, basically they've left
it untouched, open and waiting for you to do your thing.
(40:06):
I actually had at a friend who was a circus
performer who heard he lives in the States and he
owns a building very much like this, which has been
he's converted it. It's got a loft and living spaces.
But because I think it's a small market, but he
does a lot of stilt and elevated work and unicycle
(40:27):
it's sort of about four meters high, and so this
is perfect for him. I should get in touch and say, mate,
you should move to New Zealand. But otherwise there's a
lot of work to go into this, isn't there.
Speaker 4 (40:37):
Yes, yes, someone who walks around on stilts all day
probably wouldn't be so good on my sort of halfway
to stud height new but yeah, an old church perfect.
Speaker 2 (40:47):
Yeah, absolutely, Hey, good to talk to you, Calvin. I
people would have been by the way. It's a while
you serve the professional community as well. People can access
reports and newsletters of yours to just go to core Logic,
dot cod and Z.
Speaker 4 (40:57):
Would that be right, Yep, that's right. Yeah, we I
mean all our research is freely available. We obviously deal
a lot with clients or a commercial opera in the end,
but certainly free for all.
Speaker 3 (41:08):
Excellent.
Speaker 2 (41:08):
Now, thanks for your time. Well, look, we'll be back
in just a moment with her parents. Quite We've got
a new guest in the studio. She's former principal at
Barridine College, Sandy Pasley, talking about how we teach our
kids about values and whose job that is.
Speaker 3 (41:20):
Back very shortly.
Speaker 2 (41:21):
News Talk SEB this week in Collective oh eight hundred
and eighty ten eighty.
Speaker 1 (41:25):
For more from the weekend Collective, listen live to News
Talks EDB weekends from three pm, or follow the podcast
on iHeartRadio
You're listening to the Weekend Collective podcast from News Talks.
Speaker 2 (00:43):
And welcome back to the show. This is the Weekend Collective.
I'm Tim Beverage. This is the one Roof radio show.
By the way, if you've missed any of our hours
or you've got to nip out or something, you want
to catch the rest of it because you just have to,
then you can go to our news You can catch
our podcast. Just go to the News Talk SI website
or to iHeartRadio, look for the Weekend Collective and away
you go from there. For this hour, we're gonna have
a chat about doesn't matter what sort of whether it's
(01:07):
a new build or sort of a more of a
heritage house on the property, and how does that how
does that actually affect the value of property, not just
the particular property itself, but also in the neighborhood as well.
Anyway to discuss that and other questions we're going to
get on too. We're joined by He's the chief economist
at Core Logic. He's become a bit of a regular
(01:28):
on the show. I think he almost needs no more
introduction other than Calvin Davidson.
Speaker 3 (01:31):
Hello, how's it going? Not too bad? What's been keeping
you out of mischief lately.
Speaker 4 (01:38):
Work, family, you know, just the usual juggle, it seems
never ending. But the alternative have nothing to do would
be worse.
Speaker 3 (01:45):
So good you.
Speaker 2 (01:46):
Weren't like many of the workforce that decided Hang on
a minute, if I take three days off here, I
can get a nine, nine or ten day holiday with
the whole Anzac and Easter.
Speaker 4 (01:57):
And yeah, no, colleaguester for sure. I just love my
job so much genuinely that I find out to take leave. No,
but I mean, you know, it's not the worst week
to actually be at work because you're not getting heressled
with emails, So good chance to get some some things
ticked off the to do list.
Speaker 2 (02:18):
Yeah, look, I wanted to dig into and I don't
know if you how the data goes with this sort
of thing. But also, as someone who's observing the property
market all.
Speaker 3 (02:27):
The time, how so you can get a three.
Speaker 2 (02:31):
Bedroom home that's built in the nineties versus a new
build of a similar size right down the street, and
one will have a completely different value to the other.
And look, this is for you listening as well. What
does the house that is on the property make a
big difference when it comes to your investment choices. Do
(02:52):
people like new builds or not. If you are looking
to live in something, you might love a new build,
But if you're looking to buy something with a bit
of character, you might.
Speaker 3 (03:02):
Think it's got more value.
Speaker 2 (03:04):
Are there any Is there any data that sort of
measures that side of things?
Speaker 4 (03:09):
Yeah, I mean it can be a little bit tricky
to measure, and I think in the end, really a
lot of this comes down to that balance of supply
and demand is sort of cliched economics, isn't it. And
possibly you might say, well, there's fewer heritage properties. You know,
you might say less supply equals a higher price, But
of course they might be less demand as well. So
I think for most properties, you'll tend to see that
(03:31):
demand is in some kind of proportion to supply. And
of course we know at the moment lots of people
are pretty keen to buy new builds. Certainly investors were
keen on new builds going back a couple of years
when the tax rules were shifted against existing properties or
older properties, so that investors were incentivized to look at
new builds. And of course I think the mix of
properties that's coming through makes a difference term. And if
(03:54):
you think of all the new builds lately and certainly
around Auckland have been townhouses as opposed to standalone houses. Now, yes,
if you look at the same type of property will
probably cost you a little bit more than an existing property.
But the fact that a lot of the new bills
lately have been smaller, they've been townhouses as opposed to
(04:14):
existing houses, so they do come cheaper. So yeah, there's
there's been people pretty keen certainly first time y is
pretty keen to look at those townhouses. They're nice and new, smaller,
they're cheaper, so that gives them an incentive to look
at that. But generally, what I think you see in
the data really is that if you get a three
bedroom existing property versus a three bedroom new property, that
(04:35):
new one might cost you a little bit more. But
there will be certain people who like a certain type
of property. And you I'm thinking here of the classic
sort of Auckland villa, you know, the town those villas
and Premiu era Ponsonby and Premium. Yeah, that's right, yep.
So I think really in the end it's sources for courses.
I mean, I guess what what we've seen lately with
(04:57):
the tax rules that has incentivized people to look at
new builds. Of course, those tax rules have been sort
of backpeddled a little bit now so that that camp
is shifting a little bit. But yeah, I think really
it's horses of course, as taste in the end matters,
and they will determine the price.
Speaker 3 (05:11):
I guess. I mean this sounds controversial.
Speaker 2 (05:15):
I'm just sort of making up as I go along here,
Although this is a pre prepared sort of thought, because
you do get these developments when suddenly there's you'll see
a townhouse development and there's a bunch of new properties
that have suddenly arrived, And as an investment, that'd be
the last thing I'd ever buy, because all that's going
(05:36):
to happen is the new house that you're so proud
of in a couple of years time is going to
be that one that's not the new house. Because we
constantly are doing so much building at the moment, and
it feels that it's an investor low maintenance for sure,
But in terms.
Speaker 3 (05:50):
Of property value, I don't know.
Speaker 2 (05:52):
I'd just be very cynical about it.
Speaker 4 (05:56):
Yeah, it depends on what people are looking for. Obviously,
in your budget and all that sort of thing, and
certain suburbs, a certain type of property will be more
popular than there's in certain suburbs. It's just what's there
that that will determine what you have to buy them.
And if you if you're looking to buy an investment
property in Central Auckland, well pretty much you're getting an apartment,
aren't you. So it's it's a little bit sort of
(06:16):
circular about what's what people actually want versus what's there
and they have no choice about. But yeah, certainly there's
there are some questions, I guess being raised at the
moment about saying oversupply of townhouses. So you know, if
you think about from an investor's perspective, if people are
looking to buy a property, they might go, Okay, well, yep,
that that townhouse is nice and near you, maybe I
(06:38):
can get it at at a good price. But you know,
if there's an oversupply, then potentially there's going to be
less capital growth on that in the future. And I
think there's a pretty strong treat record that a lot
of the capital growth over time comes from the land anyway.
So you know, if you tend to see that the
bigger standalone houses will tend to appreciate a little bit
faster over time because simply because they have more land. So, yeah,
(07:01):
the new built townhouses may look fairly appealing at the moment,
But if there is an oversupply, and I find that
a little bit of a tricky concept because.
Speaker 2 (07:11):
In the either beholder, isn't it if you're Chris Bishop,
there's not an oversupply of townhouses. We're starting to nail
it and it's bloody good news.
Speaker 4 (07:19):
Yeah, that's right. Yeah, And I think in some ways,
you know, demand expands to meet the supply. You know,
probably for a while there during COVID, people were finding
housing very, very expensive, so you saw the number of
people per house go up. But as that balance sort
of eases out a little bit, those people who were
otherwise cramped up and you know, five people or six
people to a house or whatever, can if affordability allows them,
(07:43):
they can spread out and create their own new household.
So that demand sort of filters out to meet the supply.
So yeah, I find sort of oversupply away bit of
a tricky concept, the same as undersupply. Really, I think
what you see is that it's not as if we
ever end up with a whole swathe of empty houses
or people cramping up in ten per house. I think
(08:04):
it's just sort of these things are just over time.
But yeah, I mean I think you've sort of touched
on a point which I think is really important and
simply that you know, you might argue about, well, will
this property get less capital growth than time or more
or whatever. But I think for a country as a whole,
we're going to need more houses, and so you know
that the government's moves to increase housing supply, I mean
(08:26):
it has to be a good thing. More houses of
all types and all locations, catering to all vice points.
That helps affordability over time and access to the market.
And you know, yes, people might put a premium on
having a big villa on a big plot of land,
but for the country as a whole, you might argue that,
you know, intensifying that land, putting putting six townhouses on
(08:47):
it would actually serve us better. So I think we
need we need both types of property, We need all
types of property. Everything intensification over time is probably going
to be a good thing.
Speaker 2 (08:56):
Okay, So the question I've got for you, if you listening,
we'd love to have your cause on this is if
you're buying a house, or if you bought one, why
did or didn't you buy a new build? Because everyone's
got their reasons for buying different types of property. And
I'm going to dig into a little bit because we've
got the data guy here. I'm not sure if I
should call you, as chief economist at Call Logic, the
(09:16):
data guy, Kelvin Davidson, but I might try and dig
into actually what what the data is looking like in
terms of the supply of housing in general and.
Speaker 3 (09:24):
What we're building.
Speaker 2 (09:25):
But for you, if you're looking to buy a house,
and let's say as an investment, are you more attracted
by a new build or do you look for something
that's got a bit of work that you might have
to do because you're looking to add value? What's more attractive?
Why did or didn't you? Or would or wouldn't you
buy a new build? Eight hundred and eighty ten eighty.
But let's let's get into the course right away, shall we.
Speaker 5 (09:47):
Peter, Hello, good born an old heritage building versus building
a brand new house. Some people in the last couple
of years, the price has gone up more than double
for materials, Is that right?
Speaker 4 (10:03):
Yeah? I mean double seems quite high for some individual
projects potentially, But yeah, on our indicator, we've got a
construction cost index, which, off the top of my head,
I mean that the cost might have been up in
the past three or four years, perhaps sort of twenty
five to thirty percent. That's for that's across materials and wages. Now,
(10:24):
probably wages haven't quite risen that much, So if you
average that out, the total build cost gone up about
let's call it thirty percent. You know, maybe wages are
up fifteen or twenty so materials that materials component might
have been forty or fifty percent up potentially, and individual materials,
some of them might be up potentially one hundred percent.
Certainly we saw that shortage of plaster board during COVID.
(10:45):
But overall, if you exclude the land, our index says
that the overall cost to build a relatively standard new
property has increased substantially. But a doubling or in other words,
one hundred percent growth would be pretty high. But individual
projects may well have seen that sort of figure at
four certain materials. I would say, what.
Speaker 2 (11:04):
Are you more attracted to as a property investor, Peter,
Are you interested in new build so do you like
to find that sort of character house.
Speaker 5 (11:12):
Well, I generally find the new builds don't have the room.
I went through a nice new build. I was very impressed.
Four hundred and forty square meter that was the building.
And for services you can walk. You could go up
the stairs into the attic and your head could not
touch the roof. You could walk straight down from one
(11:34):
end to the house to the other in the attic.
In all your services like heat clumps and all that.
We're easy access because the person designed to these traits
in these days don't have in the ladders. You've got
to have your own, yourself sufficient for people to get
access into your roof.
Speaker 2 (11:50):
That sounds like a one off new build, doesn't it.
That doesn't sound like sort of one of one of many.
Speaker 5 (11:56):
No, No, it's a beautiful place. And I think, you know,
access to your services are very important and if you
you know, I think having a stepped together into the
epic where it might be as important. But I just
think a lot of new builds without garrets, like in
(12:16):
Crosiers for example, I think that they've got too many
of them, and the market is.
Speaker 2 (12:28):
Peter there's a bit of there's a bit of feedback
on the line this we might have to move on there,
but I'm sorry about that. But a bit of a
bit of noisory bounding on your call there, Peter. Actually,
I guess the question around the heritage and new is well,
maybe that's you actually, Calvin. In fact, I'll tell you
what I think. We might have a little bit of
feedback bouncing back. Well, we'll take a break and I'll
(12:49):
just get we'll sort things some things out technically here
this is news talk, sai'd be so maybe, by the way,
before we go to the break, I think the the
question is more.
Speaker 3 (13:00):
About the neighborhood as well.
Speaker 2 (13:02):
Are you launched in buying in a neighborhood where it's
more the original housing? And I was driving around a
place where my parents used to live and there's not
a single new building site because there's no need for it.
The houses are probably all thirty, twenty, thirty forty years old.
Is that the sort of neighborhood where you think you'd
be interested in investing in, or do you like the
neighborhoods which are gradually getting taken over by the new builds,
(13:25):
or does it's kind of the uniformity kind of mean,
it doesn't feel so attractive all that all of a sudden,
and we can all imagine different sorts of developments where
we might think it looks lovely and other ones where
we think.
Speaker 3 (13:36):
Not so much.
Speaker 2 (13:37):
It's twenty past four. This is Newstalk, said b the
one with radio show eight hundred eighty ten eighty text
nine to nine two of it back in just to
take let's welcome back to the wonder Off radio show
(14:03):
on Tim Bevers. My guest is Call and Davidson. He's
a chief, he's the chief economistic call logic.
Speaker 3 (14:08):
We're talking about.
Speaker 2 (14:11):
Is it better to buy new builds? Why did or
did you not buy a new build? And is that
relevant when it comes to assessing the value of an
investment property or more not maybe even less specifically, is
it the.
Speaker 3 (14:26):
Character of the neighborhood that's more important?
Speaker 2 (14:29):
Would you be interested in buying something as part of
a whole new development neighborhood or do you prefer to
invest your money and sort of slightly the New Zealand
that's maybe twenty or thirty years older in terms of
the houses that are on the street. I wait, one
hundred and eighty ten eights the number text nine two
nine TiO. We'd love to have your call, so get
on the blow and we'll talk to you soon. Any
other question, If you've got some questions for Calvin Davidson
(14:50):
around what the data is revealing in the property market,
I think this is probably the time you should give
us a call as well, because I'm going to ask Calvin,
what's what is the story with supply and demand and
are there interesting stories that it's us about what we're
building and how much and all that, and how happy
would Chris Bishop be?
Speaker 4 (15:10):
Yeah, I think probably fairly happy at the moment. Even
though the construction industry has been in a downturn for
a couple of years, really, but it was coming off
probably an unsustainably high peak. So if you go back
a couple of years, we had dwelling consents about fifty
thousand on an annual basis. Now most estimates of actual
capacity to build houses in any given year are more
like sort of thirty to thirty five thousand, So, you know,
(15:33):
even though the downturn has been pretty deep, it was
coming off a very high level. So it's probably back
now too roughly about normal in terms of dwelling consents. Now,
not all dwelling consents reach actual completion or get turned
into a house. We've estimated about sort of eighty percent
of dwelling consents get turned into a house eventually about
eighteen months down the track, and the conversion rate into
(15:56):
actual housing stock, because keep in mind, certainly will say
the Auckland Unitary Plan, it took demolitions to allow that
info housing to happen. So we estimate of about five
percent of demolitions. So the pass through rate from dwelling
consents to actual net change in housing stock existing houses
on the ground is about seventy five percent. So along
the way sort of you lose twenty five percent. So yeah,
(16:19):
that's kind of our conversion rate. But in general, we've
I think we're seeing dwelling consents bottom out at the
moment at around sort of thirty three thirty four thousand. Yes,
came from a very high peak, but now back to
something like normal. And I think if you look across
a lot of housing market indicators, things like house prices
still relatively flat. Yes, there's a whole bunch of things
affect them, but relatively flat. Housing rents are relatively flat.
(16:42):
Now not saying these things are cheap or going down necessarily,
but they have flattened off, and I think that's probably
consistent of the market that's reasonably well balanced. Certainly, you know,
we're not seeing the headlines at the moment of mess
housing shortages that we might have seen at certain times
in the past, So I think the market's fairly well balanced.
Is a lot of choice. If you want a certain
type of property, you'll probably be able to find it.
(17:04):
We've seen net migration slow down a lot as well,
so overall population growth isn't as strong as it was,
so supply has been remped up, demands come off a
little bit, and so I think, you know, we're seeing
those things flatten off now from the government's perspective and
use they want a lot more housing in future. They're
pushing so hard on all of these measures and underwriting
developers and the reform of the RIMA and to whatever else.
(17:26):
Streamlining consent process is a whole bunch of things. I
probably left off five or six there now. So they
certainly want a lot more supply coming through in future,
and I think you have to take a step back
and say this is what we need, This is a
good thing, we need housing supply. We don't want the
shortages that we might have had in the past. So yeah,
there's I think generally it's a little bit hard to
(17:47):
measure whether the housing market's over under supplied, And like
I said earlier, it's a concept I sort of struggle
with a little bit anyway, But yeah, I think there's
a gap fear at the moment, I suppose that tells
you the market is fairly well balanced, and if the
government can be successful with pushing through these supply measures,
was reason to be relatively optimistic in future that supply
(18:08):
will match demand and when we have flatter prices.
Speaker 2 (18:11):
What actually just why we're on the on this topic
of supply and demand. And you mentioned migration there because
I used to track it quite closely. In fact, even
had some discussions with the migration with the Stats Department
about the way they used to report their statistics, which
I thought was misleading. But the where are we with migration?
(18:33):
Because my distant sort of impression is that we're losing
more people than we're gaining. But are we still got
net positive migration?
Speaker 3 (18:39):
Have we?
Speaker 4 (18:40):
Yeah? We still do, yes, on a twelve month rolling
basis net this is net now there's a lot of
moving parts here. I'll try and be as clear as
I can on a twelve month rolling basis, so you
sum it all up over twelve months. The net migration figures,
so arrivals minus departures that peaked at one hundred and
thirty five thousand somewhere around the are if you go
(19:01):
back maybe eighteen months, very very high. That there was
a record high. There's been huge gyrations in these numbers
with COVID, artificial barriers and all of that, but it
peaked around about one hundred and thirty hundred and forty
thousand mark. It's come right down now to around thirty thousand,
they think, off the top of my head. So still positive,
and now that is a twelve month rolling basis. Even
(19:24):
on a monthly basis, though, I feel like simply a
month by month profile, I don't think there's been a
month in there where we've actually lost people. So in
net terms, there still has been more arrivals than departures.
It's just that the gap is a lot smaller than
it used to be. And so yeah, there's still people
keen on coming to New Zealand. We do. But the
thing I guess the big thing about the net migration
balance is that it can mask two extreme numbers. And
(19:46):
I suppose when well, going back for the last three
or four years, there's been a lot of departures. It's
just that there's also been a lot of arrivals. And
I guess there was always the concern if we did
see those arrivals come down, people suddenly decided, you know,
I don't want to go to New Zealand anymore, ago
to Australia or UK or wherever. Suddenly we're, you know,
(20:08):
the Emperor, the Emperor's New Clothes scenario. We'd suddenly find
that those departures are still going on. People are still
keen to head to Australia going their oe and we
end up with tapping into the negatives. We lose skilled labor,
it slows down their economy, that sort of thing. Now,
I don't think we've really reached that level yet, And
if anything, it looks like net migration is sort of
flattening off at around about that thirty thousand on an
(20:30):
annual basis, so probably a more sustainable number that is
around about the average for what it's worth.
Speaker 2 (20:37):
Yeah, sorry, net migrations. What about twenty five thousand moment.
Speaker 4 (20:42):
Twenty five or thirty ye off top of my head,
more like thirty thousand on a twelve month rolling basis,
So you're getting sort of two thousand and two and
a half thousand month by month and net turns. So yeah,
people are still keen to come, not as strongly as
they were.
Speaker 2 (20:54):
See, I'm just trying to get if we've you know,
we've been a net positive growth migration wise for a
reasonable length of time now, and that has spanned growth
and dip in the market, hasn't it. We've still been
importing people. Can you give us an economist point of
view as to why demand for property in terms of
purchasing sense of slacked off so much? Because intuitively you'd
(21:16):
think of there's more people coming here with demand for housing.
What how How does it not feel that there's a
bit more urgency to buy houses because we're constantly growing.
Speaker 4 (21:30):
Yeah, there's there's going to be a lot of moving
parts in there as well, Things like at what rate
to people occupy houses? In terms of migrants first leaving citizens,
you know that sort of thing. Could migrants come in
and live four people per house as opposed to departing
citizens who are maybe two per house and whatever those
are stylized numbers. But so all of that will be
going on. It's that mix of occupancy rates. But by
(21:51):
keep in mine also the foreign buyer band. So you know,
unless you're Australian or Singaporean, those those two countries are
all very very wealthy and investing. I think it's in
big department developments. If you're not in those categories, forever
difficult to actually buy a house, so you you will
probably be pushed into the rental sector anyway. Not only that,
(22:12):
not only the foreign buyer band, but you know, I've
been a migrant before I went an away to the
UK for a number of years and you know, okay,
I bought a house eventually, but you know, you for
a start you go into.
Speaker 2 (22:22):
Renting or is it just or is it I'm just anticipating.
One of your qualifications to that is that rents are
not growing. But is it because actually rents are still
quite high and so there's only a limit to what
people can can pay.
Speaker 4 (22:41):
Yep, yep. That's we've seen that through time. That that
is a really key driver. And you know, you see
it at certain times landlords costs go up and the
sort of standard assumption as well, rents will go up
because landlords have got higher costs, they'll try to push
rents up. Actually, the history tells you that rental growth
is more about tenants affordability than landlords costs, So you know,
it's what the market will tolerate. And at the moment
(23:03):
on our measures, rents as high in relation to household
incomes as they've ever been.
Speaker 3 (23:08):
So rent it's not actually wonderful, is it out there?
For your rent It's still.
Speaker 4 (23:12):
No, No, it's not no. And there are other factors
for rents as well. I mean, even though we still
have net positive migration, there's been a lot more supply
coming to that rental market too. Part of that is
all the new builds being completed being pushed out into rentals,
maybe because investors have bought them and are now renting
them out. But also we hear a lot about developers
who might have intended to sell those new properties but
(23:33):
haven't been able to or haven't been able to sort
of recoup their costs, so have kept them and they
are renting them out. But also just anecdotically, I guess
a little bit of people switching out of short term
holiday rentals into the sort of more long term traditional sector. Again,
so it's the supplying demand again, sounds cliched, but for
those rental properties, rents are already high, so that's the
natural barrier, but supplying demand is shifted too. Well.
Speaker 2 (23:56):
Love your cause on this, by the way, on your
take on the property market, but in particular the role
of new builds. Is it something that you find appealing
in buying into a new buildighborhood or do you prefer
to go for something which is a little bit more
slightly old school? Calvin, I do love it when an
economist uses the word anecdotally because it sounds like you're
being very, very naughty, because in the end core logic,
(24:21):
it's got to be about the numbers, isn't it. How
much I mean, I've asked you this before, I'm sure,
but just as a mischievous question, what does the role
of anecdote play? Because if you are analyzing data all
the time, you were also heavily immersed in all things property,
aren't you. So it's not like you're just it's a
casual anecdote. But you would talk, you know, there would
(24:42):
be discussions from you'd be talking to people all the
time who will share stuff that's not necessarily hard data data,
but there's anecdotes.
Speaker 3 (24:52):
How does that inform your job?
Speaker 4 (24:55):
Yeah, I think it's important. I think it's very important. Actually.
I mean, you know, ultimately we'll want to be judging
anything based on the hard data, the big samples coming
what we see coming into our systems through councils and
all that sort of thing aggregated up. But of course
sometimes there's lags with that sort of stuff, and you
want to really have your finger on the pulse in
terms of what's going on right now. So yeah, because
(25:17):
there can be lags from what happens on the ground
to it hitting data that could be a month or
two or three, you know, depending on sort of publication schedules.
So for me, I really like, yes, like I say,
we base a lot of it on the hard data
through our systems, but I really value those anecdotes as
well because it tells you, it gives you an early
signal of what's sort of going on right now. You know,
(25:39):
we're talking to a state agent's, banks, lenders, at the
front line valuers, all sorts of people are who are
dealing with real customers right now. And I think that
you've got to be careful about how you use it,
and I never want to sort of overplay it. But
also you probably have a little bit of a gut
feel about what sort of should be happening, and if
the anecdotes square with that, then you probably think, okay,
(26:00):
that that makes a bit of sense. But if you
hear stuff that's a little bit yeah, I don't know.
If it passes this the sniff test, then I'll probably
put it into my sort of collection of anecdotes, which
then you might see become hard data down the track.
But the sniff test is important as well.
Speaker 2 (26:15):
That's funny because in terms of people who make their
own decisions around property, most the average punter would be
heavily anecdotally influence, wouldn't they unless they are incredibly busy
and heavily invested property investor and experienced.
Speaker 4 (26:30):
Yeah, oh that's right. Yeah, And that's why you have
to be careful as a commentator on the market as
a whole, that you don't put too much weight on anecdotes.
But also I think it's really important to have a
degree of humility, because if I present to clients or
talk to the media, I'm generally thinking about averages, but
of course nobody buys the average. You know, everybody has
an individual experience, so I think you have to be
(26:52):
sort of just a little bit careful about using data
that's too aggregated as well, and also recognize that, you know,
I might tell you that a rental yield for an
investor is five percent or whatever across the market as
a whole, but there'll be some investors savvy buyers out
there who can buy an individual property and it is
getting double that potentially, and so that investment looks really good.
(27:13):
When if I talk about the investment market on average
and aggregate, you might say, well, it's a little bit questionable.
Not that it is now we've seen investors coming back,
but as a stylized thing, you know, we might see
some stuff in our data that says, well, you know,
it's a little bit tricky, but if you're buying an
individual property, you might be getting an absolute bargain getting
a high rent, So that's a good deal. So there's yeah,
(27:35):
there's a balance with everything.
Speaker 2 (27:36):
I suppose how easy is it to measure who's buying
the property when it comes to investors versus people who
want to buying it to live in, and actually it
just remind us what that data has done recently.
Speaker 4 (27:51):
Yeah, well, actually, very easy for us. We have Aquology
Buyo Classification series, which which we look at all deals
that are taking place and we classify each of those
each of those deals into buyer buckets, so we can
quantify first home buyers. That's so, for example, we define
a first home buyer as somebody who's using mortgage and
hasn't had their name on a title before. So there
(28:12):
might be a few gray years, but generally that's what
people would think of as a first home buyer. They're
using debt, I've never owned a property before, so.
Speaker 3 (28:19):
We can just stopping you there. Of course we'll enter
through this.
Speaker 2 (28:21):
So there literally you can databases of the names of
all property owners and you can search and go, this
is a new name, or if it's the same name,
it's a different address, probably different a person. You can
measure that pretty quickly.
Speaker 4 (28:34):
Yeah, well, there's that. It comes through the title data,
through councils, through land information, so it's ultimately all transactions
carry on. Yeah, so yeah, we classify all those buyers
so we can look at and you touched on there
somebody who's a mover as we call them, or a
relocating owner occupier. We saw them sell a property and
(28:55):
show up in another property sort of sometime down the track.
And investors of course as well, so we call it
multiple property owners. So where people have got their name
on two or three or five or ten or one
hundred titles, that sort of thing. So now there's always
little gray areas with us, but generally for us, yep,
very easy. We can measure all of that. And what
we have seen lately is that there's I mean, there's
(29:18):
more buying from everybody. The property market is getting busier,
so we're getting more first home buyers, more investors, more
relocating owner occupiers. Everyone's sort of heating up a little bit.
But part of that also is the market shares are
shifting a little bit. And I suppose one thing that
people really focus on, and I don't think it's all
that helpful, but this sort of perceived battle between investors
(29:38):
and between first home buyers, and you know, people think, oh, wow,
you can only have one or the other. Actually you
can have both, and we need both. We need first
time buyers in the market. We need investors to provide
those rental properties. But just in terms of market share
at the moment, what we're seeing is the first home
buyers are just tailing off a little bit in terms
of their percentage share of activity, but it's coming off
a record high. So first home buyers have been very
(29:59):
active and our tailing off just ever so slightly. And
we're seeing investors or those mortgaged multiple property owners to
start to come back into the market and you're just
to down interest inductibilities back. So things have shifted in
their favor. But so market share is shifting by keep
in mind what I said at the start there that
everybody is buying more properties, so the pie is getting bigger,
and within that, you know, the shar has changed a
(30:21):
little bit.
Speaker 2 (30:22):
Okay, right, we're going to take a break and just
but we love your cause. If you've got any questions
for Calvin, then give us a call on e one
hundred and eighty ten eighty. But also we started the
conversation talking about new builds. But as conversations do evolve,
But what would you look for if you were looking
to buy a house, if to be an investment or
a look if you're first home buy you wouldn't it
be just like I just want to find a nice
(30:42):
house to live and it's dry and warm and in
the location that I want. Ultimately, But what what's your preference?
New or something existing? You can do something too. It
is twenty to five News Talks.
Speaker 6 (30:53):
B Yes, welcome back to the one roof radio show.
Speaker 2 (31:14):
I'm Tim Beverage. My guest is Calvin Davidson. He's the
chief economist at Call Logic, and clearly from his request
today a Bruce Springsteen fan, I would say, yeah, yep, huge.
Speaker 3 (31:26):
Good, good stuff.
Speaker 2 (31:27):
Hey, let's get through a few texts, sir we Calvin, Okay,
does your guest reckon that new granny flat buildings will
become a big boost for the market and further subdivision
of some sites.
Speaker 4 (31:39):
I've got to say, I mean, if the question is
a yes or no answer, I've got to say no.
I mean, yeah, some people may see some value in
putting a granny flat on the back of the section,
but I'm not convinced it's going to transform the market.
I think probably it's it's best feared as a sort
of as part of that bigger recipe of lots of
different initiatives that the government's taking to increase supply. That
(32:01):
might not necessarily change things on their own, but when
you add them all together, we could see a bit
of a transformation. So yeah, not on its own, but
it's a helpful change in terms of that wider policy mix.
Speaker 3 (32:13):
Can you measure that?
Speaker 2 (32:14):
Will you be able to know when someone's shoved the
branny flat on the back?
Speaker 4 (32:18):
Yeah? Well, well hopefully, I mean, you know, because part
of this is that you don't have to go through
the consenting process to get as long as it's less
than I think seventy square meters now, isn't it, which
for me is actually a pretty sizable still. Yeah, so
and you know they're not It's not like this per
square meter rate is necessarily any cheaper than any other
type of property, so it's still still could cost quite
(32:40):
a bit. But I think that part of it is
that you still have to tell the council at least
that you're doing it, tell them you started, and tell
them you finished. So yeah, hopefully there'll be some tracking
of those sorts of projects. Like I said, I'm not
sure it's going to suddenly produce an extra ten or
twenty thousand dwellings a year or anything, but helpful is
part of the wider mix.
Speaker 2 (32:59):
Okay, another one's here says people are forgetting about tax
deductibility of labor is to change the rules again. At
least new builds are exempt. Obviously you don't necessarily track
policy constantly at core logic, But do you think there's
any chance that we're going to see more tumult when
it comes to tax policy and investment and property, because
(33:20):
property investment's not exactly on fire right now, is it.
Speaker 4 (33:23):
No? I mean, like I said, are people are coming back?
I mean the text rules have turned back in favor
of investors again since since National has been back, and
so that is helping people come back to the market.
I mean, yeah, who knows what's going to happen in future.
You'd have to change the government first, and you know
that may not necessarily be the next election. Who knows.
There's so much uncertainty about that. But yeah, I think
(33:44):
I mean, property investors I talk to are alert to
that possibility that we probably will see a change of
government at some point in the future, and yeah, we
definitely will. Yeah. I don't want to come up too
much then, but yeah, I think that's a pretty safe assumption.
So and yeah, what weapons at the time. I mean,
like I said, investors I speak to are pretty alert
(34:04):
to that possible lily, that we see a change of
government at some stage, and introductibility does change back again,
and so I think people are probably factoring that into
their sums if they can now. You know, there's only
so much uncertainty you can price them right now. And
ultimately you've got to make a decision if you know,
if you do nothing, well you'll get nothing. So people
(34:25):
do have to make decisions, you know, at some stage.
But yeah, that's that is that. But I mean, I
think in the end though a lot, for a lot
of investors, it is about mortgage rates. It's about the
gap between rent and a smaller text bill helps or
a bigger tax bill doesn't help. But really it's about
what's the gap between how much rent I can get
and how much the mortgage is going to cost me.
And at the moment that gap has closed a lot,
(34:47):
and so people are coming back to the investment market.
Go back two or three years when mortgage rates were
pushing up seven or eight percent, it was very very difficult.
So for me that's still the biggest thing. But tax
bills can at the margin have an impact too.
Speaker 2 (35:00):
This one's probably slightly outside your comfort zone, but we'll
throw it out there anyway, because we can all have
an opinion on things. It's a high time we have
an old villa which unfortunately we have to sell and
move to a cheaper option. Were renovated in twenty twelve.
Do you think it's general in general it's better to
renovate or sell as is? Do you have a take
on that in terms of what or even any does
(35:22):
any data tell us anything about.
Speaker 4 (35:23):
That tricky one? Yeah, I'm not sure i'd have I'm
not sure i'd have too much for you on that.
I guess one thing, and I think your guest last
week on the on the win Roof radio show was
talking about this. The you know, the way that people
are making money or some people are making money at
the moment. Yeah, yeah, is to renovate. And you can
sort of see how that's working because the people are
(35:46):
still having If you buy a new build, not much
you can do to it. You are probably going to
top up that property to some extent, used to top up
to be less than what they were. But yeah, that
show is all about sort of how do you really
kick up their value at the start, and you renovate
something so urs just for cours as a game.
Speaker 2 (36:02):
What would you do if you're looking for an investment
property would you would you be just sort of buying
a nice property that you think is going to deliver
a decent rental yield and sit on it for a while,
or would you.
Speaker 3 (36:11):
Do it up?
Speaker 4 (36:12):
Yeah, I mean I'm not a practical person by any
means with.
Speaker 3 (36:17):
Their own hands.
Speaker 4 (36:19):
Yeah, I mean, it's you've got to have I think
when it comes to renovations probably, I mean, you know,
there's no financial advice here or anything, but I think
when it comes to renovations, you want to have a
good team around you and either have the skills yourself
or no people who can be able to do that
at a good price. So, I mean, you would think
the safer option is probably to buy something that doesn't
need renovation and you sort of sit on it. Now,
(36:41):
you know, that's that's got questions at the moment as well,
because I mean I think in future, capital growth rates
could be lower than what they've been in the past,
so those returns that people might get might be a
little bit lower. There's still be returns there, but yeah,
big decisions for people.
Speaker 2 (36:56):
Intuitively, actually, they would have to be loved because I
remember we've I mean this will triggered one of my
guests or we've had on a regularly on the show.
But you know there was the figure about the property
value every so many years. But that's just mathematically not
possible for that to be consistent all the time.
Speaker 3 (37:10):
It's just it's not is it.
Speaker 4 (37:13):
No, that's right, yeah, And part of it. One thing
we've got in this cycle which we haven't had in
past cycles is restrictions on debt to income ratios for
mortgage lending, which isn't doing anything right now really, but
we'll start to do so as serviceability test rates of
the banks come down. People could theoretically afford a bigger loan,
but that's when the debt to income ratio restrictions kick in.
(37:35):
So it's something we haven't had in the past. But
there's other drivers as well. We can't have the same
long term downwards stream and mortgage rates that we've had historically.
That's a big factor. Who knows the tech system might
look a little bit different in future. Land supply situation
shifting around here that if this government can make these
changes stick. All of those factors argue for the less
capital growth and future and ultimately your ratio of our
(37:58):
sort of value to incomes can't keep going up forever.
So yeah, there is a there is a limit there.
But again, these are averages. Individually, people will be able
to get bargains, they'll be able to get just the
same capital growth as what they might have had in
the past. So again that humility about averages versus individual deals,
I think is important.
Speaker 3 (38:16):
Good stuff.
Speaker 2 (38:17):
Right, We're going to take a moment, come back. The
one roof property of the week is next. This is
news Talks. He'd be the one roof radio show. It's
nine and a half minutes to five.
Speaker 1 (38:25):
The one roof property of the week on the weekend collective.
Speaker 2 (38:29):
Yes, the one roof property of the week is Look,
they're all fascinating, They're always always fascinating.
Speaker 3 (38:34):
But it is. It's an old church.
Speaker 1 (38:37):
It is.
Speaker 3 (38:38):
I'll tell you what their dress is.
Speaker 2 (38:39):
It's ninety six a centennial avenue to Adaha near Matamata, Matamata, Piaco,
I think is the official it's a bit of a
it doesn't sound like much. In the description it says
one bedroom, one bathroom, zero car garage. Calvin, how do
I describe this? It's basically they've ripped the pews out.
(38:59):
It's still got the organ and the pulpit and an
opportunity perhaps.
Speaker 4 (39:08):
Yeah, well, I mean for someone I got to say
not probably to my taste. You know, we're talking about
new builds for his heritage property. So I'm very much
in the new built camp. I live in a reasonable
new house, so I like double glazing and insulation that
sort of thing. This looks very much like Grand Designs
type project, doesn't it. So yeah, not for me, but
there'd be certain people out there who really like that
(39:30):
sort of thing. I mean that description of one bedroom,
I mean it's open plan would be very good description.
So yeah, yeah for somebody, probably not to my taste.
But like horses for course, is everyone's a buyer for everything.
Speaker 2 (39:44):
Yeah, So it looks like it has been a church
until recently and they've whoever's got it, they're basically just
taken the pews out there, left the I mean the pulpit.
I guess, you know, if dad wants to have a
chat with the kids, it's like serious time. It's like, right,
everyone sit there, I'm going to get into the pulpit
because you're all in trouble. But yes, basically they've left
it untouched, open and waiting for you to do your thing.
(40:06):
I actually had at a friend who was a circus
performer who heard he lives in the States and he
owns a building very much like this, which has been
he's converted it. It's got a loft and living spaces.
But because I think it's a small market, but he
does a lot of stilt and elevated work and unicycle
(40:27):
it's sort of about four meters high, and so this
is perfect for him. I should get in touch and say, mate,
you should move to New Zealand. But otherwise there's a
lot of work to go into this, isn't there.
Speaker 4 (40:37):
Yes, yes, someone who walks around on stilts all day
probably wouldn't be so good on my sort of halfway
to stud height new but yeah, an old church perfect.
Speaker 2 (40:47):
Yeah, absolutely, Hey, good to talk to you, Calvin. I
people would have been by the way. It's a while
you serve the professional community as well. People can access
reports and newsletters of yours to just go to core Logic,
dot cod and Z.
Speaker 4 (40:57):
Would that be right, Yep, that's right. Yeah, we I
mean all our research is freely available. We obviously deal
a lot with clients or a commercial opera in the end,
but certainly free for all.
Speaker 3 (41:08):
Excellent.
Speaker 2 (41:08):
Now, thanks for your time. Well, look, we'll be back
in just a moment with her parents. Quite We've got
a new guest in the studio. She's former principal at
Barridine College, Sandy Pasley, talking about how we teach our
kids about values and whose job that is.
Speaker 3 (41:20):
Back very shortly.
Speaker 2 (41:21):
News Talk SEB this week in Collective oh eight hundred
and eighty ten eighty.
Speaker 1 (41:25):
For more from the weekend Collective, listen live to News
Talks EDB weekends from three pm, or follow the podcast
on iHeartRadio
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